2019 Pre-Game Thread: Week 4 at Bills

Jed Zeppelin

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Not sure I can blame Fouts for this, but I really want to. At one point during the broadcast, they showed the 3 touchdowns Brady threw. The problem was that even though the Pats had scored 3 TDs, one of them was a running play.

Nevertheless, Fouts used to be OK, but now when he is not being blatantly obvious, he is stating incorrect facts. He does it all the time.
I've never seen an announcer call a play incorrectly against all evidence while watching the slow motion replay more often than Fouts does.
 

Bunt4aTriple

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I've never seen an announcer call a play incorrectly against all evidence while watching the slow motion replay more often than Fouts does.
Bingo. I don't remember the details, but during the Miami game, there was an initial replay showing a Pats defender hitting a guy near the sideline and he said it should be flagged, then they showed a wider shot wear the receiver (runner?) was clearly in bounds and he remained steadfast. He stinks.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Blitz the hell out of Josh Allen and make him make tough throws. An already inaccurate passer won’t get any sharper.
After 3 weeks, Allen is ranked #21 on PFF's QB ranking with this analysis (link):

Allen has played well in spurts, but he’s put the ball in harm’s way with a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2%, fourth-highest in the league. Allen usually complements the risky plays with a high percentage of big-time throws, but he’s only ranked 22nd in that department through three weeks, in part due to a 34.6 passing grade on 20-plus-yard throws, worst in the NFL. On the good side, Allen has been excellent at the intermediate (10-19-yard) range, grading at 90.2, good for third in the league. He’s made strides so far this season, ranking sixth in adjusted completion percentage at 81.3%, but he still must do a better job of taking care of the ball.
 

Al Zarilla

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I wonder if Fouts' hall of fame inclusion gets him a lot of rope. There have been some other announcing HOFers all the way back to Red Grange that absolutely wouldn't get the gig except for having a bust in Canton. Bob Griese. OTOH, Gifford, Olsen and Aikman were/are good. Maybe it's just too hard to fire a hall of famer with tenure. He is not good though.
 

ehaz

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I actually really like Josh Allen. Obviously, he's a work in progress but I've seen him make some throws on the run that no QB has any business making. He's a really instinctive runner too. I'm not really afraid of him in this game but down the line, Allen has as good a chance of being a successful QB as anyone in his draft class.
 

Brand Name

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It’s not hard to see why this kind of thing has a shelf life. The same thing will happen to Romo eventually.
I’ll argue this happened as recently as last year as someone who adores Romo since it helps drive interest in film room, concepts, etc. in the average fan. Plus his energy is fantastic, has good timing in his lines, which isn’t common by most color guys. Also helps he’s a QB, they’re almost always my favorite commentators, be that Romo, Gannon, or Green. Less so Aikman in-booth since he tries to appeal to the LCD a ton.

If you notice teams that run more Air Raid-ish concepts or the over/under/floods of RPO concepts, Romo rarely recognizes them pre-snap simply because he didn’t run them. If the Chiefs/Pats game stays on CBS, compare and contrast how little he knows of KC’s offense compared to NE’s. Dude played under Parcells, who obviously has a playbook and history overlap with BB, after all.

Most teams haven’t moved fully forward with the less defined (beyond Perkins-Erhardt) NFL, and Romo usually gets those teams. But if he had to call an Arizona game this year? Wouldn’t be his finest hour for play breakdowns.
 

Van Everyman

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I’ll argue this happened as recently as last year as someone who adores Romo since it helps drive interest in film room, concepts, etc. in the average fan. Plus his energy is fantastic, has good timing in his lines, which isn’t common by most color guys. Also helps he’s a QB, they’re almost always my favorite commentators, be that Romo, Gannon, or Green. Less so Aikman in-booth since he tries to appeal to the LCD a ton.

If you notice teams that run more Air Rad-ish concepts or the over/under/floods of RPO concepts, Romo rarely recognizes them pre-snap simply because he didn’t run them. If the Chiefs/Pats game stays on CBS, compare and contrast how little he knows of KC’s offense compared to NE’s. Dude played under Parcells, who obviously has a playbook and history overlap with BB, after all.

Most teams haven’t moved fully forward with the less defined (beyond Perkins-Erhardt) NFL, and Romo usually gets those teams. But if he had to call an Arizona game this year? Wouldn’t be his finest hour for play breakdowns.
This is good stuff. I would also say, Romo seems to put more stock in his ability to predict what's going to happen than most announcers. Which, as you suggest, is dangerous when you don't know what you're reading.

But I also think it's kind of boring. While I'm not exactly excited to hear some of the more vapid commentary about toughness and character that most color guys still pollute the broadcast with, "It's going to Gronk in single-coverage at the top!" isn't really that much more insightful.

Hopefully Fouts won't be too terrible Sunday. But I'm not expecting much.
 

joe dokes

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This is good stuff. I would also say, Romo seems to put more stock in his ability to predict what's going to happen than most announcers. Which, as you suggest, is dangerous when you don't know what you're reading.

But I also think it's kind of boring. While I'm not exactly excited to hear some of the more vapid commentary about toughness and character that most color guys still pollute the broadcast with, "It's going to Gronk in single-coverage at the top!" isn't really that much more insightful.

Hopefully Fouts won't be too terrible Sunday. But I'm not expecting much.
Predicting stuff was a nice novelty. But I can see the play happen on my television, whether its predicted or not. And since the camera usually follows the play, his predictions didn't add much, other than even more talking. I'd be happy if he just stuck to something I *don't* know --- like why what just happened just happened, unless its something really important, like "look at the bottom of the screen Jim; the Bills have a guy dressed as a dildo trying to guard Josh Gordon.....if Brady sees it, this could be a long-gainer....."
"Looks like they're gonna run it up the gut" is needless oxygen consumption, IMO.
 

RetractableRoof

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Predicting stuff was a nice novelty. But I can see the play happen on my television, whether its predicted or not. And since the camera usually follows the play, his predictions didn't add much, other than even more talking. I'd be happy if he just stuck to something I *don't* know --- like why what just happened just happened, unless its something really important, like "look at the bottom of the screen Jim; the Bills have a guy dressed as a dildo trying to guard Josh Gordon.....if Brady sees it, this could be a long-gainer....."
"Looks like they're gonna run it up the gut" is needless oxygen consumption, IMO.
I take the predictions as evidence that he knows what is going on - and can then tell us what he saw and/or why it happened. I value that a lot more than some piece of fluff from the color commentary. Even when wrong, explaining what fooled him is just as valuable. I'd rather hear that than another retread "he made that play because he's got a good motor" or whatever is the current scout/GM speak for cool that week.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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Romo’s predictions, based on formation, sequence and context, were far more insightful than “looks like they’re gonna run it up the gut.” The AFCCG and Super Bowl stuff, which we’ve all seen approx 4000 times now, are prime examples.
 

thehitcat

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I take the predictions as evidence that he knows what is going on - and can then tell us what he saw and/or why it happened. I value that a lot more than some piece of fluff from the color commentary. Even when wrong, explaining what fooled him is just as valuable. I'd rather hear that than another retread "he made that play because he's got a good motor" or whatever is the current scout/GM speak for cool that week.
Romo’s predictions, based on formation, sequence and context, were far more insightful than “looks like they’re gonna run it up the gut.” The AFCCG and Super Bowl stuff, which we’ve all seen approx 4000 times now, are prime examples.
I agree here and strongly with RR. Even if he gets it wrong I'd like to hear from his practiced eye why he got fooled or even he still believes he was right and the QB on the field made a "bad" read. This adds to my understanding even though I've been watching for years because he has been trained to see things I do not in split seconds. I do like the idea that Romo may struggle with more modern concepts and/or teams that play different types of offenses but if he's really good while maybe he won't be able to predict he should still be able to read and explain what he sees. That adds value to the broadcast, Fouts and his ilk, though I loved him as a player, does not.
 

TFisNEXT

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I actually really like Josh Allen. Obviously, he's a work in progress but I've seen him make some throws on the run that no QB has any business making. He's a really instinctive runner too. I'm not really afraid of him in this game but down the line, Allen has as good a chance of being a successful QB as anyone in his draft class.
I've seen two Bills games this year and I agree that he's got some big upside. He's a little too loose with the football but if he tightens that up a bit and keeps developing a bit more on his reads, then look out. He obviously has the physical tools.

I've noticed he's already more decisive than he was last year going through his reads/progressions. I expect he will struggle against a good Patriots defense but he will be a fun player to watch develop over the next year or two.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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Just watched the condensed edition of Bills Cincy. Allen has moments of friskiness, and the Bills D is pretty impressive. But I saw nothing that tells me the Patriots are in danger of losing this game, even if Edelman doesn’t play. I can’t imagine Buffalo scoring North of 13 points against our D. And when Cincy finally started going with shorter, quick passes, they moved the ball pretty darn well against that pretty impressive D. Any given Sunday and all that, but this feels like another potential lopsided win.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just watched the condensed edition of Bills Cincy. Allen has moments of friskiness, and the Bills D is pretty impressive. But I saw nothing that tells me the Patriots are in danger of losing this game, even if Edelman doesn’t play. I can’t imagine Buffalo scoring North of 13 points against our D. And when Cincy finally started going with shorter, quick passes, they moved the ball pretty darn well against that pretty impressive D. Any given Sunday and all that, but this feels like another potential lopsided win.
I’m not feeling the lopsided win given where the running game currently sits. Brady is going to have to throw a decent amount and they’ll probably get to him since the OL is still in flux a bit. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple Pats turnovers, like a strip sack and tipped pass INT.

Implied score is like 24-17 Pats. That sounds about right to me. Wouldn’t be surprised if this game serves as the early season loss that everyone overreacts to.
 

reggiecleveland

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I sure don't buy that in game announcers are against the PAts. The ESPN shck jocks sure, but the in game guys no. Sims used to spend two or three plays when the other team had the ball talking about hw great Brady was on the last TD. Usually the Pats are winning, so there is that factor, but Collingswirth and Michels are always saying the Pats are so consistent people don't appreciate them. Romo just seems to love the game but he throws lots of love TB12's way. often pointing out how great a seemingly easy play was due to the decision making.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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I sure don't buy that in game announcers are against the PAts. The ESPN shck jocks sure, but the in game guys no. Sims used to spend two or three plays when the other team had the ball talking about hw great Brady was on the last TD. Usually the Pats are winning, so there is that factor, but Collingswirth and Michels are always saying the Pats are so consistent people don't appreciate them. Romo just seems to love the game but he throws lots of love TB12's way. often pointing out how great a seemingly easy play was due to the decision making.
The late career Nantz-Manning love fest really left a mark. Although, he was masterful in calling a switch on run plays at the line. And those handoffs, so deft.
 

joe dokes

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I take the predictions as evidence that he knows what is going on - and can then tell us what he saw and/or why it happened. I value that a lot more than some piece of fluff from the color commentary. Even when wrong, explaining what fooled him is just as valuable. I'd rather hear that than another retread "he made that play because he's got a good motor" or whatever is the current scout/GM speak for cool that week.
I think we mostly agree. I just want to hear 95% of that excellent analysis *after* the play.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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Yup. Buffalo has a real defense but likely not much more so than Pittsburgh's.
Not sure if that's true.

According to FO, Buffalo ranks 5th in yards allowed/drive at 24.42 yards. Steelers are way down as the 23rd team on the list, allowing 35.69 yards/drive.

Not surprisingly, your NEP is at the top of the pile with an incredible 15.41 yards/drive. It's more than 7 yards less than the #2 team, the Rams with 23.00 yards/drive.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef/2019
Buffalo defense has been good for a while. Steelers' own has cratered after ranking #7 on the same list in 2018.
 

DJnVa

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Not sure if that's true.

According to FO, Buffalo ranks 5th in yards allowed/drive at 24.42 yards. Steelers are way down as the 23rd team on the list, allowing 35.69 yards/drive.

Not surprisingly, your NEP is at the top of the pile with an incredible 15.41 yards/drive. It's more than 7 yards less than the #2 team, the Rams with 23.00 yards/drive.
Sure, but Steelers played us, that's going to account for some differences in only a 3 game sample---we had 10 drives for 406 yards against them.
 

BaseballJones

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Just a random guy but I thought it was fine. He seemed to have a fairly level head about it. Understanding that everything needs to break right for them: HFA, Pats' injuries, strong Bills' defense, Develin out, etc. And even then, it was a "Bills CAN win", not "Bills WILL win".
 

tims4wins

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Just a random guy but I thought it was fine. He seemed to have a fairly level head about it. Understanding that everything needs to break right for them: HFA, Pats' injuries, strong Bills' defense, Develin out, etc. And even then, it was a "Bills CAN win", not "Bills WILL win".
Yeah I didn't have a problem with the content, just wondering why I should watch (even though I did).
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Yeah I didn't have a problem with the content, just wondering why I should watch (even though I did).
I watched it first just for fun. It was "level-headed" (as @BaseballJones puts it) enough for me to post it here. Perhaps FiveThirtyEight.com is a worthier source for you:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-josh-allen-and-the-buffalo-bills-actually-good/
The part that groups Allen with Mark Sanchez is comforting:

"Allen has built on a polarizing rookie season with his play so far in 2019. On the one hand, Allen has won games with a combination of timely passing (he leads all quarterbacks this season in yards compiled during the final five minutes of one-score games) and impressive running (only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards among QBs). On the other hand, he ranks just 26th out of 35 qualified QBs in passer rating, with below-average rates of completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. In that regard — winning despite across-the-board mediocre passing numbers — Allen is well on his way to joining a bizarre group that includes Jake Plummer, Trent Dilfer, Kordell Stewart and Mark Sanchez."
 

chilidawg

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I watched it first just for fun. It was "level-headed" (as @BaseballJones puts it) enough for me to post it here. Perhaps FiveThirtyEight.com is a worthier source for you:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-josh-allen-and-the-buffalo-bills-actually-good/
The part that groups Allen with Mark Sanchez is comforting:

"Allen has built on a polarizing rookie season with his play so far in 2019. On the one hand, Allen has won games with a combination of timely passing (he leads all quarterbacks this season in yards compiled during the final five minutes of one-score games) and impressive running (only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards among QBs). On the other hand, he ranks just 26th out of 35 qualified QBs in passer rating, with below-average rates of completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. In that regard — winning despite across-the-board mediocre passing numbers — Allen is well on his way to joining a bizarre group that includes Jake Plummer, Trent Dilfer, Kordell Stewart and Mark Sanchez."
Is any of that at all meaningful in a 3 game sample size?
 

tims4wins

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I watched it first just for fun. It was "level-headed" (as @BaseballJones puts it) enough for me to post it here. Perhaps FiveThirtyEight.com is a worthier source for you:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-josh-allen-and-the-buffalo-bills-actually-good/
The part that groups Allen with Mark Sanchez is comforting:

"Allen has built on a polarizing rookie season with his play so far in 2019. On the one hand, Allen has won games with a combination of timely passing (he leads all quarterbacks this season in yards compiled during the final five minutes of one-score games) and impressive running (only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has more rushing yards among QBs). On the other hand, he ranks just 26th out of 35 qualified QBs in passer rating, with below-average rates of completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. In that regard — winning despite across-the-board mediocre passing numbers — Allen is well on his way to joining a bizarre group that includes Jake Plummer, Trent Dilfer, Kordell Stewart and Mark Sanchez."
Define comforting. Sanchez beat the Pats a couple times. Plummer beat the Pats in a playoff game. Can throw in Flacco who won two playoff games in Foxboro and could have won four.
 

RedOctober3829

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Limited--Bennett(shoulder), Brady(calf), Burkhead(foot), Ebner(groin), Edelman(chest/ribs), Hightower(shoulder), Izzo(calf), LaCosse(ankle), Newhouse(illness), Thuney(shoulder)
Full-Cannon(shoulder)
 

Ralphwiggum

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BB has 17 wins in Buffalo since 2000, the most of any coach including all of the Bills coaches. Rex and Dick Jauron are tied for 2nd with 12. That is all.
 

Preacher

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BB has 17 wins in Buffalo since 2000, the most of any coach including all of the Bills coaches. Rex and Dick Jauron are tied for 2nd with 12. That is all.
Brady has 15 wins in Buffalo since 2001, most of any QB since then. Drew Bledsoe is second with 14. Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick are tied for 3rd with 13.
 

Ed Hillel

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Brady has 15 wins in Buffalo since 2001, most of any QB since then. Drew Bledsoe is second with 14. Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Fitzpatrick are tied for 3rd with 13.
Brady has the most since Jim Kelly, I believe.
 

Reverend

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Houston's willingness to pay a high price for an OL is starting to make more sense to me. They might still get Watson killed.
Just in terms of athletic work and fatigue, getting chased around and/or hit on 1 play in 7 and 1 play in 3 is enormous.