2019 Trade Deadline

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RedOctober3829

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Any Red Sox offer for Edwin Diaz would presumably include minor-league slugger Bobby Dalbec, who is blocked at 3b by the younger Rafael Devers, or 2018 No. 1 pick Triston Casas, in case Mets view him as 3b option. Red Sox confident they will make impact bullpen move.
—Buster Olney
 

uncannymanny

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Well, don’t throw me in the briar patch with Dalbec, but probably not realistic. Not a fan of losing Casas for a reliever.
 

jon abbey

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It makes no sense, Mets have Alonso at 1B and McNeil should be playing 3B once Frazier and the corpse of Jed Lowrie are out of the way. Not that moves involving the Mets need to actually make sense, just saying.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Strikes me as a possible leak from the Mets trying to bait other teams into the bidding. Although the rest of the tweet suggests he's getting info from someone close to the Red Sox. I know it's popular to speculate that these guys don't actually know anything, but they usually don't report (or tweet) totally baseless info.
 
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johnnywayback

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Dalbec for Diaz is actually a great value proposition, even if we wind up including, say, Chatham and a fun DSL guy to round it out. Dalbec is never going to play 3B for us, and his defense there is a big chunk of his value, so I've always thought we'd end up trading him.
 

RedOctober3829

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Strikes me as a possible leak from the Mets trying to bait other teams into the bidding. Although the rest of the tweet suggests he's getting info from someone close to the Red Sox. I know it's popular to speculate that these guys don't actually know anything, but they usually don't report (or tweet) totally baseless info.
Most of the time it would be pretty baseless speculation this time of year, but Buster has just spent the whole weekend at Fenway Park and has probably heard some things.
 

jon abbey

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Acquiring Dalbec would allow them to trade Dom Smith in a deal for something they need.
I don't understand, they already should trade Dom Smith for something they need, since he is blocked by Alonso at 1B and shouldn't be playing anywhere else.
 

jon abbey

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Also I don't see how the Mets trade Diaz now, since they're clearly not in a full rebuild, but again logic and the Mets don't have much overlap.
 

BaseballJones

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Diaz for Dalbec smells a bit too Larry Andersen-y for my taste.
No way. Andersen was a 37-year old pure rental. Diaz may be struggling this year, but up til this season he's been great, he's only 25, and he's under team control through 2022. Bagwell eventually grew into his power, but he was already a polished hitter in AA at the time of the deal. .333/.422/.457/.880 in AA as a 22 year old.

Dalbec is two years older now than Bagwell was, and his power numbers in AA are similar to what Bagwell's power numbers would be at the same age *in the majors*. That is, as a 24-year old in AA, Dalbec has 20 hr in 343 ab. As a 24-year old in the MAJORS, Bagwell had 18 hr in 586 ab. So more power from Dalbec, but in AA, rather than facing major league pitching.

Bagwell was a better prospect than Dalbec is, and Diaz is a more attractive return than Andersen was.

This isn't close to Bagwell-for-Andersen.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Casas is basically better than any prospect that has changed hands to date. I mean, he's more exciting than the players just traded for Marcus Stroman. He should be a complete non starter for a reliever given the current trade market.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Casas is basically better than any prospect that has changed hands to date. I mean, he's more exciting than the players just traded for Marcus Stroman. He should be a complete non starter for a reliever given the current trade market.
Agreed. He should be part of a bigger deal for Thor. Not Diaz. Obviously they need more than just him to complete it.
 

RedOctober3829

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Don't the Mets ascribe to the theory that defense doesn't really matter? Isn't that also part of what makes acquiring Met pitchers enticing?
They certainly don't have a good defensive team, but I don't think they think defense doesn't matter. In Smith's case, Alonso has been so good that they were trying to figure out ways to get Smith's bat in the lineup.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I wouldn't listen to Andy Martino. He's a twitter whore. He makes empty posts with buzzwords just to stir the pot and bring people to his feed.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Passan seems to be saying the Mets would rather have Dalbec than Casas, but maybe I'm misunderstanding him:

Jeff Passan said:
A number of scouts are skeptical about Triston Casas’ ability to stick at third base, seeing him as a clear first baseman. But there’s little doubt about Casas’ bat. He can really hit.
(Passan's tweet has Buster's embedded within it)
 

RedOctober3829

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Latest notes from Ken Rosenthal
--Best starters on the market might end up being Robby Ray and Mike Minor as Bumgarner and Bauer seem to be staying put and the Tigers don't like the return they may get for Boyd.

--All of the contenders are in on Ken Giles including the Red Sox.

--AZ might end up buying and selling. Andrew Chafin's name has come up in trade talks and has another year of control.

--STL may be active as they are talking about wanting a controllable SP and a lefty reliever.

--SD is saying they won't trade IF Luis Urias, but many are skeptical of that especially if it holds up a possibly Syndergaard deal.

https://theathletic.com/1103459/2019/07/29/rosenthal-with-stroman-off-the-board-whos-next-diamondbacks-may-be-buying-and-selling-braves-look-for-relief/
 

UncleStinkfinger

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how could we trust diaz in a playoff race the way he's pitched this season? seems odd to hope he reverts back to form down the stretch.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Buster's been hawking a Diaz transaction pretty hard for the last few days...though last night he underlined that he has no information that such a conversation is underway, just that he thought it would make sense.

So if Buster can make shit up (and I like Buster), I will too...

How about Casas, some minor league arms (Sherff? Crawford?) and Porcello for Syndegard, with the Sox eating just enough of the Porcello contract to stay under the LT threshold? If Stroman cost only two B-level prospects, maybe a B+ with upside does the trick for Thor?

Edit: Unless there's a super talent upgrade, I'd prefer to stay under the cap... not so much because I worry about John Henry having enough money to buy his next yacht, as I'd prefer not to suffer any draft penalties.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Casas is basically better than any prospect that has changed hands to date. I mean, he's more exciting than the players just traded for Marcus Stroman. He should be a complete non starter for a reliever given the current trade market.
Yeah, Casas is clearly a step better than anyone else in the Sox farm. But if the Sox think they can fix Edwin Diaz, I'd gladly give up Dalbec.
 

jon abbey

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Dom Smith plays an okay left, right?
No, he is awful. The Mets didn't even let him play there in spring training, it wasn't until late May that he played there because they were desperate and he has a -20 UZR/150 career there which is not easy to do in the OF.
 

nvalvo

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how could we trust diaz in a playoff race the way he's pitched this season? seems odd to hope he reverts back to form down the stretch.
We have an excellent pitching analytics crew. If we’re interested in Díaz, that likely means Bannister thinks he knows what changed.

We need a pre-arb late inning reliever we can acquire with pieces from our weak-but-improving farm system. There aren’t a ton of guys who tick those boxes.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Diaz for Dalbec smells a bit too Larry Andersen-y for my taste.
Why? Let's hear some reasons.

Baseball Jones just gave you your lunch. And I agree, this potential transaction has nothing to do with the transaction that was made almost 30 years ago. Stop jumping at ghosts. It's pathetic.
 

BaseballJones

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We have an excellent pitching analytics crew. If we’re interested in Díaz, that likely means Bannister thinks he knows what changed.

We need a pre-arb late inning reliever we can acquire with pieces from our weak-but-improving farm system. There aren’t a ton of guys who tick those boxes.
If the Sox could get Diaz for Dalbec, I'd be thrilled.

Diaz has had basically three huge blowup games:

May 29 at LAD: 0.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb
June 27 at Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb
July 5 vs Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb

Totals for those three games: 1.0 ip, 11 h, 13 r, 13 er, 4 bb, 2 k, 117.00 era, 15.00 whip

Now, all the games count and these can't just be thrown out. But when dealing with small sample sizes like relievers have, three games like this *totally* skew the season's stats. He's pitched in 44 games and has given up runs in 10 of them. Apart from these three blowup games, his season stat line would be: 39.0 ip, 34 h, 9 r, 9 er, 9 bb, 59 k, 2.08 era, 1.10 whip, 13.6 k/9

Again, those three games count. But closers giving up 4 and 5 runs generally happen over the course of several games, and as bad as those three games were, they only count for three games. It seems like he's just had a few epic meltdowns, which would mean that if you bring him into a game, you'd better have someone else warming in case it starts to go south. But other than these three games, he's been pretty damned good all season long.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Diaz has been consistently bad since joining the Mets and letting up a lot more homeruns than he did last year. If it's the juiced ball, it looks like he's a victim of it. He's been bad home vs away as well. Is the attraction for next year? I'm not sure the Sox want to empty the farm for upside in a GFIN year.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Murderer's Crow

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If the Sox could get Diaz for Dalbec, I'd be thrilled.

Diaz has had basically three huge blowup games:

May 29 at LAD: 0.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb
June 27 at Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb
July 5 vs Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb

Totals for those three games: 1.0 ip, 11 h, 13 r, 13 er, 4 bb, 2 k, 117.00 era, 15.00 whip

Now, all the games count and these can't just be thrown out. But when dealing with small sample sizes like relievers have, three games like this *totally* skew the season's stats. He's pitched in 44 games and has given up runs in 10 of them. Apart from these three blowup games, his season stat line would be: 39.0 ip, 34 h, 9 r, 9 er, 9 bb, 59 k, 2.08 era, 1.10 whip, 13.6 k/9

Again, those three games count. But closers giving up 4 and 5 runs generally happen over the course of several games, and as bad as those three games were, they only count for three games. It seems like he's just had a few epic meltdowns, which would mean that if you bring him into a game, you'd better have someone else warming in case it starts to go south. But other than these three games, he's been pretty damned good all season long.
Sure, but when you're letting up bombs, it makes you more susceptible to blow-ups. 1.10 whip would still be higher than his career stats. Strikeouts are down, walks are up. This is in the NL, where the whole league is practically 500.
 

BaseballJones

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Diaz has been consistently bad since joining the Mets
His first 24 games - preceding his first blowup game - he put up this line: 22.0 ip, 17 h, 4 r, 4 er, 6 bb, 35 k, 1.64 era, 0.95 whip, 14.3 k/9, saving 13 of 14 games. I'd say that's pretty damned good. Then he had a blowup game which skewed his stats, and had a few bad games since then. But he was definitely not "consistently bad since joining the Mets". He got off to a pretty kick-ass start through the first two months of the season.
 

j44thor

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Yeah, Casas is clearly a step better than anyone else in the Sox farm. But if the Sox think they can fix Edwin Diaz, I'd gladly give up Dalbec.
They don't need to fix him, they just need his .398 BABIP to regress close to career norms.
Diaz hasn't lost any velocity but the one alarm is that his slider isn't nearly as effective as last several years, in fact it is a - pitch this year according to FG. This could be the result of the new baseballs this year, Thor's slider is also a negative and Sale went from a +19 slider last year (+8 previous 2) to a +4.7 this year. All 3 pitchers have seen their FB effectiveness go down along with the slider effectiveness.

I haven't explored if more slider heavy pitchers are also impacted but given some pitchers have openly complained about the new balls it is certainly something worth a deeper look.
 

BaseballJones

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Sure, but when you're letting up bombs, it makes you more susceptible to blow-ups. 1.10 whip would still be higher than his career stats. Strikeouts are down, walks are up. This is in the NL, where the whole league is practically 500.
No question he hasn't been as good as he was in 2018. I'm not arguing he's prime Rivera. But I don't think he's been as bad as the season numbers might indicate. He's very much worth the risk of trading Dalbec, IMO.
 

chawson

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It’s hard to overstate how bad the Mets’ defense is, though it’s also true Diaz is giving up a lot more hard contact. With no change in velocity and whiff rate, it’s also possible there’s some frustration creeping in there. I read some anecdote somewhere weeks ago that Mets pitchers have been trying to strike everyone out because they couldn’t trust the guys behind them.

It’d take more than this, but if I’m DD, I’m trying to sell Brodie on the similar Jarren Duran as a do-over for having given up Kelenic.
 

DJnVa

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Same way we trusted Joe Kelly last year. Or was that somehow different?
Well, he was already on the team, so we didn't have to give up assets to see if he could be trusted. There's a level of knowledge with guys that you've had on roster all season that you don't have with others.
 

brandonchristensen

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Considering Diaz was impossible for us in the offseason, I’m excited by the idea of getting him now.

I love watching him pitch. Works so fast.
 

burstnbloom

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/edwin-diaz-is-worse-but-to-what-extent/

If they can get Diaz for Dalbec and parts, you gotta make that move. He's certainly not the same guy he was last year but in that article it shows that his HR/FB rate is about 9.3% higher than it should be. Hitters have a .397 BABIP against him despite him being in the 76th percentile among all pitchers in exit velocity. He is letting the ball in the air a lot more than he was last year, but he's likely to regress to being a good/very good reliever who is under control for 4 more seasons.
 
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