Agreed which is why no other team should be interested in paying him much either, right?
POLL: What do with the Celtics' Cap-Space?
- Thread starter NomarsFool
- Start date
My concern about Williams is more that at 6'7" I don't see how he can be a starting C from the jump.
Kemba has developed deep ties to the Charlotte community, has said that he doesn't want to leave, has said that he would take a discount, and the Hornets can easily match/exceed any 4/$140m deal that another organization can offer. Jordan isn't going to pay him the 5/$240m supermax but that wouldn't be necessary to outbid any other suitors. This discussion began with the Kemba to Boston rumor which led to discussion. It's that slow time of year when we talk about stuff that isn't likely to occur. Kemba is not going to the Lakers and very unlikely to end up anywhere but back in Charlotte.
I'm unsure of what you mean in your last sentence. Are you implying that Kemba isn't worthy of being Danny's big acquisition and that there is something bigger out there? I can't see that at all...….who is bigger than a max FA? I mean I've seen Looney's name mentioned in what I expect to be the worst contract for anyone to sign this summer with the possible exception of Oubre's soon to be monster deal. Who else can Ainge acquire...….Capela into cap space? I'm running out of places where Danny can go to fleece someone.
That 4/$84m may be in that range where the Bucks begin thinking of alternatives to Brogdon. It's certainly an overpay but that is the price for doing business with a RFA in demand. There is no chance that $10-13m gets it done with Cousins. At absolute worst he's sign a Jabari-like deal for 2/$40m (or a 1+1 type contract) and that is the floor of what he's going to sign for IMO. He'd never agree with a long term middling money deal as he is going to want to try and strike big on his next deal.....whether that is wise or not is up for debate but I can't ever imagine him going to route of potentially selling himself short.
Lottery teams need to generate excitement along with players to put up numbers and many will have cap space to burn once they miss out or aren't in the conversations with other FA.
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You can’t assume the Boogie we saw in his first few months back from a major injury is all he’ll be going forward. I think he’ll sign another one year, make-good contract with a contender, but if he wants guaranteed money, he’ll find a team willing to give him a full MLE in hopes that proves to be a bargain. Vintage Boogie would be a real difference-maker for a team like Portland, for example. And heading into a season where the league’s top tier is as wide-open as I can remember it being, the incentive for second-tier teams to bet on a guy like Boogie is strong.
Perhaps the C’s could split their cap space between Brogdon and Boogie, but I don’t see Danny foreclosing the possibility of signing a max free agent down the road without acquiring a game-changer, and the error bars around Boogie’s projections are much too large to say with any certainty that he’ll be a game-changer.
In terms of Cousins. I expect he will be better this year than he was last year, and think he has 2 potential paths.
one is to ring chase and sign relatively cheap for a year, but with a legit contender.I don't think Boston is his choice if he does that.
the other is to get the best contract he can, and I don't think Boston offers that.
one is to ring chase and sign relatively cheap for a year, but with a legit contender.I don't think Boston is his choice if he does that.
the other is to get the best contract he can, and I don't think Boston offers that.
You omitted the obvious choice of signing a short term deal, even a one-year, for big money on a bad team to put up numbers to sign a longer team large deal with another lottery team. Cousins is being miscast by some as being a ring chasing option...….he is in Contract-chasing stage and only ended up in GS on the cheap due to the achilles injury. He isn't going to be ring chasing in a contract year when healthy.
well that is what I would have considered under the getting the best contract he can option
Kyrie was the sizzle but Al Horford was always the steak .... for a 49 win team
The Celtics have had a bunch of bad breaks. #1 The Gordon Hayward injury. Which led to a year out, long rehab and a less effective player. No one's fault, just an unfortunate situation. Signing Kemba to a big 4yr deal (for his 29-32yrs) just compounds that issue IMO.
The Celtic's need to build around its young upside wings timeline. Add players that fit that time frame, while retaining flexibility, so when Gordon's contract expires the team will be ready to fine tune the roster.
This isn't a full rebuild but should be looked at like a 22-month re-tool, while pushing the present Celtic youngsters to the forefront
A tough pill to swallow for those that want their Championships NOW, but I believe that's how the Celtics mgmt should move forward.
Clearly, I have no idea what I'm talking about since we are the front runners for Kemba, so pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27066586/sources-celtics-front-runners-sign-kemba
The problem with letting it ride with the young guys is that you aren’t winning but are still over the cap as those guys become more expensive.Kyrie was the sizzle but Al Horford was always the steak .... for a 49 win team
The Celtics have had a bunch of bad breaks. #1 The Gordon Hayward injury. Which led to a year out, long rehab and a less effective player. No one's fault, just an unfortunate situation. Signing Kemba to a big 4yr deal (for his 29-32yrs) just compounds that issue IMO.
The Celtic's need to build around its young upside wings timeline. Add players that fit that time frame, while retaining flexibility, so when Gordon's contract expires the team will be ready to fine tune the roster.
This isn't a full rebuild but should be looked at like a 22-month re-tool, while pushing the present Celtic youngsters to the forefront
A tough pill to swallow for those that want their Championships NOW, but I believe that's how the Celtics mgmt should move forward.
Clearly, I have no idea what I'm talking about since we are the front runners for Kemba, so pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27066586/sources-celtics-front-runners-sign-kemba
If Danny signs Kemba, I think it signals that he’s bearish on Jaylen. No one thinks Tatum/Kemba/Jaylen is the core of a contender, and I don’t see a path to bring in a star player to complement those three. (Even if the Memphis pick pops, Kemba will be cooked by the time that new guy is ready to shine.)Kyrie was the sizzle but Al Horford was always the steak .... for a 49 win team
The Celtics have had a bunch of bad breaks. #1 The Gordon Hayward injury. Which led to a year out, long rehab and a less effective player. No one's fault, just an unfortunate situation. Signing Kemba to a big 4yr deal (for his 29-32yrs) just compounds that issue IMO.
The Celtic's need to build around its young upside wings timeline. Add players that fit that time frame, while retaining flexibility, so when Gordon's contract expires the team will be ready to fine tune the roster.
This isn't a full rebuild but should be looked at like a 22-month re-tool, while pushing the present Celtic youngsters to the forefront
A tough pill to swallow for those that want their Championships NOW, but I believe that's how the Celtics mgmt should move forward.
Clearly, I have no idea what I'm talking about since we are the front runners for Kemba, so pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27066586/sources-celtics-front-runners-sign-kemba
I’m a glass half full guy and I think Kemba/Tatum/Hayward is excellent. I want to see Jaylen without dummy and MaMo before I trade him.
Only possible paths there are Hayward becomes said star and you resign him in 2 years, you trade Hayward plus picks to a team with a disgruntled star, or Hayward opts out after this year. Otherwise they won't have max cap space for a long time assuming they keep both Js.
With the usual disclaimer that it’s a longshot, if both Js take a leap, that’s absolutely the core of a contender. 2 big athletic wings who play defense works as the core of quite literally any roster in the NBA.
Woj is reporting that the Lakers shed more salary to the Wizards and now have a max slot. I hope they don't steal Kemba from under us.
If they do, Danny has other options. I would assume plugged in agents knew that would happen though.
I have the exact opposite read. You only sign Kemba if you're bullish on Jaylen, and think the team, plus some picks, has the core of a contender. If you (like me) think Jaylen is sort of a sneaky low upside guy, then you look to trade Jaylen now, roll the cap space, and kick the can down the road.
This is a sign of confidence in the core.
Yeah, I think they’re confidant in Tatum, and even if they’re not as confident in Brown there are going to be options for dealing him (especially if they decide to hold on to Hayward long term, there’s just not sufficient usage for all three plus Kemba). There are a lot of young teams that could absolutely use someone of Brown’s work ethic to prevent the “inmates running the asylum” phenomenon that’s plagued so many young teams over the years.
I'm curious why you think this. I mean, Kemba is a better player than either of those, and obviously just signing a guy is much better than waiting to see if an offer sheet gets matched as players come off the board. And the frontcourt was going to be in the air no matter which PG they approached, even Brogdon likely the cheapest was probably leaving them not much room to get an impact big.
Oh, I think Kemba is a good player but he's 29 and undersized. He's also a volume shooter. I would have expected Ainge to go after a younger player who can grow with Tatum and Brown.
As for an "impact big" I would try to pry one away from Indiana (not Houston). I have no idea if that is feasible, but I would give alot to get Sabonis.
As for an "impact big" I would try to pry one away from Indiana (not Houston). I have no idea if that is feasible, but I would give alot to get Sabonis.
I think this is a common misconception on age issues... you get guys for 4 years, you can't control anything past that, so your best option is almost always going to be to take the player you think will provide the best value of the next 4 years, and Kemba is almost certainly the better player over the next 4.
Yeah Walker is a top 15 player in terms of O PIPM (pour one out for LondonSox who got a lot of grief for citing a stat that people are now using widely) or a top 10 player for O RPM if you prefer that metric. He is also a top 20 player in RPM wins if you like that stat.
Meanwhile, Russell is something like 61st in O PIPM and 35th in RPM and 48th in RPM wins. I like Russell's upside more than most here however he isn't that efficient and there are legitimate concerns that his current production is his ceiling.
Neither player is good defensively though Russell has the size/wingspan to a better defender in theory. Walker, on the other hand, is a guy who has never been on a team with a great defense (Charlotte has had one season in the top 10 team D-ratings during his entire career) so he may be able to improve just based on being surrounded by better teammates but he is physically limited.
In short, if you are going after a scorer, you pay up for Walker vs Russell, plain and simple.
Meanwhile, Russell is something like 61st in O PIPM and 35th in RPM and 48th in RPM wins. I like Russell's upside more than most here however he isn't that efficient and there are legitimate concerns that his current production is his ceiling.
Neither player is good defensively though Russell has the size/wingspan to a better defender in theory. Walker, on the other hand, is a guy who has never been on a team with a great defense (Charlotte has had one season in the top 10 team D-ratings during his entire career) so he may be able to improve just based on being surrounded by better teammates but he is physically limited.
In short, if you are going after a scorer, you pay up for Walker vs Russell, plain and simple.
If you are going after a "scorer" sure, Walker scores. But if you are going after efficient scoring, you go after Brogdon, who shoots a much higher percentage than either Walker or Russell. And if you are looking for a distributor, Russell is the best of the three.
I'm not convinced that putting all of their eggs in the Walker basket is the best course for the franchise, but maybe it's the only feasible option.
I'm not convinced that putting all of their eggs in the Walker basket is the best course for the franchise, but maybe it's the only feasible option.
Brogdon is great though I wonder what happens if he is asked to be a volume scorer - he may well be miscast in that role. More to the point, he fits with the Bucks and Giannis so well that I fully expect Milwaukee to go to the mat to keep him and Middleton above all else.
Brogdon is by far the most efficient 3rd or 4th scoring option in the NBA. He wouldn't need to be a volume scorer on the Celtics'
Brogdon, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, Turner would be one of 3 best defensive teams in the NBA. Malcolm would continue to be the most efficient 3rd or 4th offensive option in the NBA
This would be a ball moving/defensive juggernaut. CBS dream come true.
BUT that's not happening since we have no idea if Brogdon is interested or Turner is available.
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Brogdan in 3 years has shot .408 on 3.2 3PA per game, over that same time Kemba has shot .378 on 8.0 3PA per game. The latter is far far more impressive, that's a short list of guys who have done it over the last 3 years.... Curry and Paul George, that's it. Drop is to 7.5 and you add Klay and Lowry.
Brogdon is a nice player. I like him. But if it’s up to me, I’m spending my money on the guy who has gone to 3 straight all-star games and who is more adept at creating his own shot. I’m completely comfortable giving Kemba a 4 year max deal. I have zero concerns about the first 2 years. By year 3, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little slippage but at that point Tatum should be a full fledged alpha dog if everything goes right. And then year 4 you have an expiring deal. If we’re still relying heavily on Walker in years 3 and 4, then something would have gone wrong with the development of Tatum and Brown.
A core of Kemba, Tatum, Brown, Heiwerd, and Smart is pretty solid. And then you’d have the Romeo/Time Lord lotto tickets, a should-be bench contributor in Williams along with the Memphis pick to dream on. Things could be worse.
A core of Kemba, Tatum, Brown, Heiwerd, and Smart is pretty solid. And then you’d have the Romeo/Time Lord lotto tickets, a should-be bench contributor in Williams along with the Memphis pick to dream on. Things could be worse.
That's very impressive from Kemba, great company. Plus he's been a one-man show, shooting off the dribble, which makes it even more impressive. That definitely has me coming around to Kemba. Thanks
Just a few thoughts/questions:
1. Those are Brogdon's first 3 seasons (his shooting has improved each season) and he is entering his prime. How many players have shot over 40% from 3pt their first 3 seasons, has to be small?
2. How will Jaylen feel, in a contract year, that the offensive initiator is a high volume shooter? Any concerns that Jaylen will feel pressure to shoot before moving the ball?
3. Kemba's defense has been in decline over the last few seasons. A little guy, plays with abandon, w/tons of mileage for his age 29-32 years, max deal. It's a big gamble. The need for a rim protector is even greater now. Credit to Danny who is operating under tough circumstances.
Why does Kemba have a ton of mileage? Have the Hornets made one playoff run while he's been there?
He seems like a typical guy his age to me, and there's no reason he can't age well.
He seems like a typical guy his age to me, and there's no reason he can't age well.
1. For averaging 40% over their first 3... 180 (some of those didn't actually play 3 seasons, washing out before then despite their shooting.)
2. I doubt it, Kemba will get him better looks, which means better numbers, which means a better chance of the max.
3. He was a better defender than Kyrie or IT before they got here, he's servicable.
Thanks.
Kemba's defense will be much better than IT and his effort will be greater than Kyrie.
Brad will know the best way for Kemba not to get exposed defensively
100% agree. If anything, Kemba has less mileage than most 29 year old NBA stars. He wasn't a 1-and-done, he played 3 years at UCONN. So the two additional years in college (compared to the 1-and-done types) were significantly less taxing on his body than playing in the NBA would have been. College is half the number of games, shorter games, spread out schedule, less travel, etc.
That team is missing a quality big but otherwise would be really really nice. And it doesn’t have to be a GREAT big... just not a bad one.
It's really putting all of the Celtics eggs in the "Tatum makes the year 3 leap into an all-star caliber player" basket, which I'm totally fine with.
Dedmon probably can do better than the room MLE, right? Same with Kleber? Dedmon’s made strides defending the perimeter, can provide interior D and space the floor. Not particularly exciting, but I’d feel comfortable enough with him starting. Kleber would be just behind him, but maybe more realistic option. Other than those two, it seems like finding the least worst option for a big with the room MLE: Thomas Bryant, Khem Birch, Ed Davis, Robin Lopez, Noah, Muscala. Whole lotta meh there.
Agree with this. He keeps himself in excellent condition. Eddie Johnson has discussed players that don't invest in themselves by keeping in top shape. A couple of the guys he's criticized the most are Chris Paul and Carmello.
I'm a big fan of the signing and targeted Kemba as the ideal Kyrie replacement long ago. He is going to fit Stevens' system much better than people are expecting. He's a rich man's IT4. Didn't think there was a path to acquiring Kemba early on and am very pleased that Danny figured it out.
Kemba has been a ball dominant, 1 man show, averaging 35mpg over 80 games the last 4 seasons. He plays hard, max effort, goes to the hoop quite often for that mess in Charlotte. All of these are great qualities. BUT anyone claiming he doesn't have mileage has not been watching him play.
Danny & Co did a great job avoiding paying MVP candidate IT4 big money. We'll see come Sunday night if they are fine with Kemba's medicals.
Danny & Co did a great job avoiding paying MVP candidate IT4 big money. We'll see come Sunday night if they are fine with Kemba's medicals.
I see both sides of this.
On one hand, Kemba’s career minutes are basically the same as AD’s and Kyrie’s, and no one’s worried about those guys’ mileage (though Kyrie is younger, and AD’s game figures to age well). Also, Kemba’s mileage is partly a function of his good health, which of course is partly luck, but obviously makes him project better than a similar player with fewer career minutes and more injuries.
On the other, Kemba was 3rd in the league in minutes played this season and has been in the top 15 each of the past 4 seasons, and only one player his age or younger (Lillard) has more career minutes played. And like most smaller players, Kemba is dependent on his speed, which tends to decline sooner than other attributes).
Is there any reason to think “mileage” has any negative effect independent of age? Particularly for guys still in their 20s, I would tend to believe that the wear and tear of an extra 30 hours or so of playing NBA basketball over the course of a career would be offset by the experience in game reps. Seems like it would be a fairly easy thing to study, if someone hasn’t already done so.
The injury ended up making the decision easy, but I remember watching the Wizards series and thinking "there is no way Danny and Brad want IT back on any sort of major contract." He was just such a defensive liability that most of the gameplan was finding ways to hide him. Kemba is a weak link defensively, but he's just normal bad, not Snow White and the Seven Dwarves bad.
Agree that Kemba's health is not a slam dunk, but I would say that being healthy for those 80 games/year is a lot better than not being healthy for them, in terms of what it means going forward.
Yeah if you go back and look at this forum, there were plenty of us banging the "do not give IT big money no matter what" drum. IT was a significantly lesser player than Kemba and his body was outlier small 5-6 inches shorter than average, where Kemba is not really that small he's about an inch in height and 5-10 lbs in weight away from the positional average.