If you are a believer in ESPN's RPM, Kemba was the 6th best offensive player in the league last year. Behind Harden, Curry, Lillard, George and Durant. (he was 441st in DRPM, though I don't buy any stats that has Klay 470th).
POLL: What do with the Celtics' Cap-Space?
- Thread starter NomarsFool
- Start date
I think you're right they need another scoring guard, but if they go with Kemba, then they're going to end up with like Khem Birch as their starting center, in which case they'll need someone other than Khem Birch to play center for them.
I can see a case either way. They're going to have a gaping hole at either point guard or center. In the short term, they're probably better with like Kemba and Khem Birch. In the long run, it's a little more hazy if you think Tatum and Brown will develop better with more shots. I'd probably just go with whichever is cheaper. If Kemba requires the full 4 year max to leave Charlotte, while Vucevic is available for like 4/$90M, I'd take Vucevic.
Lumping Jaylen and Jayson together may also be muddying the waters.
Kemba would be a fantastic wingman for Jayson (or vice versa). If you can get him as a FA, maybe the next step is to trade Brown for a legit big.
Bottom line, I wouldn't want the Celtics to walk away from Kemba here just because of Brown.
Kemba would be a fantastic wingman for Jayson (or vice versa). If you can get him as a FA, maybe the next step is to trade Brown for a legit big.
Bottom line, I wouldn't want the Celtics to walk away from Kemba here just because of Brown.
Yeah, I’m of the mind that you need to find out what you have ASAP with Tatum and Brown, particularly wrt shot creation. It’s the only way you capture their upside, even if that upside is a longshot.
Particularly for someone like Brown, who is very robotic/non-intuitive, but has shown the ability to improve in some areas with a lot of reps, you probably just need to give him a fair amount of possessions and suck it up a bit.
Going with Kemba is definitely way better for wins next year, but I don’t know that it maximizes championship equity.
Out of all the names and prices I’ve heard so far, Vucevic and Brogdon are the most appealing.
According to the Athletic, Derrick Favors is not a lock to return to Utah:
https://www.slcdunk.com/nba-offseason/2019/6/24/18735719/2019-nba-free-agency-derrick-favors-not-a-lock-to-return-to-the-utah-jazz-according-to-tony-jones
I cant see why Utah would let him go, but stranger things have happened. Is there a fit with the Celtics either as a trade target or a FA if the Jazz cut him loose?
I've always liked Favors, could he be a starting 5 (or play the 4 with TL, Theis et. al. at the 5)? He'll be 28 next week, but it feels like he has been in the Association forever.
https://www.slcdunk.com/nba-offseason/2019/6/24/18735719/2019-nba-free-agency-derrick-favors-not-a-lock-to-return-to-the-utah-jazz-according-to-tony-jones
I cant see why Utah would let him go, but stranger things have happened. Is there a fit with the Celtics either as a trade target or a FA if the Jazz cut him loose?
I've always liked Favors, could he be a starting 5 (or play the 4 with TL, Theis et. al. at the 5)? He'll be 28 next week, but it feels like he has been in the Association forever.
It feels like Kemba is a Celtic smokescreen. He just doesn't fit their timeline. Brogdon just reeks of Brad style player. BUT there is so much money chasing "high end" players that Danny will probably land no big names (incl Malcolm).
ALSO, there are way too many question marks with the Celtic's that need to be answered this upcoming season before they start dovetailing expensive vets alongside this team:
1. will Tatum settle for mid-range fadeaways and continue w/ a Kobe-esque shot selection?
2. is Brown the guy we saw in the 1st half or 2nd half of last season?
3. how far along is Gordon, how close to being Utah Hayward?
4. can Smart be an effective starting/big min. PG, is his 3pt shot real/improving?
5. can Time Lord be an effective top 8-9 rotational big?
6. can Brad retake the team's style of play, focused on defense and ball movement while creating a better locker room?
7. what do we have with these 4 rookies and should some develop at the NBA level?
8. will Yabusele stop snacking and get in better shape?
9. is PJ Dozier a rotational player?
10. can Danny add some young/cheap/upside talent as he has done numerous times in the past?
11. can the Celtics get past all the bad PR created by last seasons performance, Kyrie ditching them, Horford leaving and AD/Rich Paul telling Danny/Celtics to go away. Future free agents have to be wondering if there is a problem in Boston?
The team will need time to answer these questions, before adding high-end, expensive, locked-up talent like Kemba Walker.
IMO the only answer at this point is to keep it flexible, sign cheap/young/upside talent, make deals to add ascending players that fit with Tatum's (our #1 potential superstar) timeline. If things break right, they could be a well coached, fundamentally sound team that is a 4/5 seed this season and in Championship contention by next season.
While the Celtics do have a lot of questions, that shouldn't stop them from acquiring high end talent if it comes available. If Kemba continues to make All-NBA teams as a member of the Celtics, he would be tradeable at some point in his contract if the Celtics felt they needed to do that for some reason.
Right. Getting Kemba does not make them a championship team. But turning down the opportunity does not make you a high lottery team. I'd rather be the 6th seed and pick 21st (and still be one move away from being a real contender) than just miss the playoffs, pick 11th, and have no road map to a title other than hope you stumble into the next Giannis in the draft.
There's no reason you can't sign Kemba or Vucevic or any other impact FA and still get answers to these questions.
Moreover, ownership isn't going to want to burn a year being in absolute purgatory just to find out if Tatum has improved his shot selection or Jaylen has learned how to dribble.
If there's a chance to grab Kemba right now and put a fun, competitive product on the floor next year without compromising the future, you do it, IMHO.
This probably isn't a popular opinion, but I'd go with Vucevic as the free agent splash and re-sign Rozier for a Marcus Smart type contract (perhaps with some inflation).
Vucevic is coming off a REALLY good season, and I don't think his rebounding or 3pt shooting are going to deteriorate over the course of the contract. I don't think you can get by with flotsam at center.
I know people want to pack Rozier's bags, and I get that. But small-ish sample size as it may be, he's been a quality starter when given the chance (ECF Game 7 implosion aside). He'll be a guy you want to upgrade from, sure, but 15/5/5 with ~38% 3pt shooging is good enough. As long as he wasn't one of the locker room cancers (and none of us know one way or the other) he seems like an okay option. Let's face it, there aren't any GOOD options at this point.
This wouldn't be a team that's going to contend for a title, but it keeps them fairly competitive. Dream on the Memphis pick. Hope Langford lives up to the high school hype. Hope Hayward gets back to being at least close to Utah Hayward. It's not a great path, but it's a path.
Vucevic is coming off a REALLY good season, and I don't think his rebounding or 3pt shooting are going to deteriorate over the course of the contract. I don't think you can get by with flotsam at center.
I know people want to pack Rozier's bags, and I get that. But small-ish sample size as it may be, he's been a quality starter when given the chance (ECF Game 7 implosion aside). He'll be a guy you want to upgrade from, sure, but 15/5/5 with ~38% 3pt shooging is good enough. As long as he wasn't one of the locker room cancers (and none of us know one way or the other) he seems like an okay option. Let's face it, there aren't any GOOD options at this point.
This wouldn't be a team that's going to contend for a title, but it keeps them fairly competitive. Dream on the Memphis pick. Hope Langford lives up to the high school hype. Hope Hayward gets back to being at least close to Utah Hayward. It's not a great path, but it's a path.
The Celtics weren't exactly on the cusp of a championship when they signed Al Horford. Granted, they whiffed on the big fish that offseason in KD, but that didn't stop Ainge from smartly using his cap space to sign one of the better FA's available that offseason. Al's presence definitely helped in their ability to lure Hayward away from the Jazz, and then Kyrie fell into their lap.
It's hard to predict what will happen next offseason when it comes to star players that could come available via trade. I would think it's better to have a roster of solid vets and young players if that's the case.
In the disaster scenario where Hayward is forced to retire, Tatum and Brown both regress, Smart's 3pt shooting goes back to what it was when he entered the league, and the rookies all fail to pan out, you trade Kemba and use the Memphis pick to jump start the rebuild process.
It's hard to predict what will happen next offseason when it comes to star players that could come available via trade. I would think it's better to have a roster of solid vets and young players if that's the case.
In the disaster scenario where Hayward is forced to retire, Tatum and Brown both regress, Smart's 3pt shooting goes back to what it was when he entered the league, and the rookies all fail to pan out, you trade Kemba and use the Memphis pick to jump start the rebuild process.
Horford was a good signing because there was a clear path to sign another max guy the next summer, then trade draft assets for another, while surrounding them with cost-controlled supporting players. I haven’t worked through all the permutations, but I don’t think there’s a similar path to open up additional cap space in the next year or two if the C’s hand out a 4-year max this summer, plus we’re down to one material future draft asset (the Memphis pick). So I don’t think signing Kemba makes sense unless you think Tatum-Kemba-Brown can be the core of a contending team in a couple years. That’s not an unreasonable position, but I’m not nearly that bullish on Jaylen.
How many Brad Stevens teams have been "high lottery" teams? I don't see it happening with or without Kemba Walker this season. The Celtics and most NBA rosters are incomplete at the moment to do any kind of EC seeding.
I'd rather see if Marcus Smart can be a starting PG and play major minutes. Have the J's be the Celtics top offensive options. Brad return to defense and ball movement, neither of which Kemba is particularly good at. IMO Having your highest paid player play bad defense is deflating for the rest of a young roster.
Kemba hoisting 17-20 FGA, putting up big points, while giving up a similar amount of points on defense for a 6th seed doesn't do it for me. To each, his own and I totally understand that Kemba does bring some excitement. I just don't think he moves the needle for Championship aspirations 22 months from now.
We also have no idea if Kemba's contract would be an asset or a liability down the road.
I'd also rather have the Celtics bet on Danny finding young/cheap/upside players, as he has in the past.
This.
The best way to find out if Jayson or Jaylen can ascend to the next level is not to make them the best player on a bad team. It's to make them have to work to be the best player on a team that is trying to win games.
I have little doubt that Tatum could be an awesome stat-compiler on a crappy team. That won't tell us what we want to know and saw glimpses of 2 postseasons ago.
I'm on the fence on Kemba, but I don't think you'd see the same Kemba in Boston as in CHA, he has taken on more and more usage as the supporting cast in CHA has gotten worse and worse, and his defense has suffered. In a real offense with better teammates, I'd expect him to go back to being a mediocre defender, which would be fine, and to take a few less shots.
I'm warming up to the idea of Kemba as he is far closer to Isaiah than he is to Kyrie. His energy is contagious, he's a ridiculously engaging personality who does a ton in the community, and can play off the ball in halfcourt sets when the offense runs through Hayward.
At some point we have to begin swapping assets for better fits so if we sign Kemba to replace Kyrie I would not be opposed to shopping Jaylen for a big to replace Horford with Hayward certainly moving back into the starting lineup.
I agree with your point and it was my exact one when we signed Hayward even without the injury......these guys aren't going to put up their previous numbers on such a balanced offensive team. Even so, Kemba is still a very good player and we need to acquire more good players with the loss of Horford, Kyrie, Rozier, and likely Morris.
Especially if Charlotte wavers and offers Kemba anything even approaching the five-year Super max that he could sign. They have such a significant built-in financial advantage that it's hard to imagine him actually leaving.
You're pretty optimistic on Charlotte then. Their payroll isn't in a good place: they have 5 other guys making over $10M/season including Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Zeller, and Biyombo. They don't have many paths to improve.
I think Kemba might be BETTER player on a more balanced team, more open 3s, less need to force shots, lighter load.
Agreed - plus, if they realistically want to be able to find a way to have another max slot open when Hayward's contract comes off the books in 2 years, they almost certainly aren't going to be able to keep both of the J's (this is a scenario where they add Kemba or another max or close-to-max this offseason). And since Brown is an RFA next year it may make sense to get value for him now rather than let him walk for nothing in a year.
The way I see it, Boston's best option for a championship is for Hayward to find most of his former self and for Tatum and Brown to grow into all star players. However, we need a couple of years for this to happen and then, their cap holds won't allow us to sign a max fee agent.
This means that the time to sign a big free agent is now. However, Walker and Vucevic will be on the decline in a couple of years, their peak won't match that of Brown and Tatum; at that point, I am not sure, their contracts will be tradeable for more current assets.
Just based on this, my inclination is to sign Russel. You re essentially betting on a parlay, that if it hits, it's going to hit big. Also, I think people underestimate how last year out a dent on the development of Brown and Taytum.
People are saying that we are due for a regression, but to me that regression will be upwards in the performance of many players. And God, many of them still have plenty of room to grow. One, some more or all can take the leap.
This means that the time to sign a big free agent is now. However, Walker and Vucevic will be on the decline in a couple of years, their peak won't match that of Brown and Tatum; at that point, I am not sure, their contracts will be tradeable for more current assets.
Just based on this, my inclination is to sign Russel. You re essentially betting on a parlay, that if it hits, it's going to hit big. Also, I think people underestimate how last year out a dent on the development of Brown and Taytum.
People are saying that we are due for a regression, but to me that regression will be upwards in the performance of many players. And God, many of them still have plenty of room to grow. One, some more or all can take the leap.
Who would be the big that Jaylen could fetch in a trade? Myles Turner? Sabonis? I think bowiac mentioned Wendell Carter Jr. earlier. Anyone else that we are missing?
You don't have to use all the cap space now. Yes, it is true that they won't have max space next year because of Jaylen's cap hold, but the "if you don't lose it, you lose it" mentality is outdated because of how restrictive the luxury tax is. Max out someone now and then Tatum and Brown in the next two years and you will quickly run yourself into the tax and that results in losing valuable tools like the MLE, bi-annual exception and S&T. In 2016 teams like Portland, Memphis and Charlotte used their space because they had it and were basically stuck with their team for the next four years. It's not so much the dollars that you're committing, or the cap space you're occupying, but the opportunity cost associated with committing that big of a salary slot for the next four years. If you're not getting an elite talent or a guy that is going to grow with your core it's probably better to stay cap-flexible in the short- and long-term.
I can't speak for Devizier, but I think part of the calculus is what's been reported a few times as Kemba's desire to stay in Charlotte. Seems hometown loyalty may be something he values, if those reports are correct. And it would presumably require a situation much more promising than the Celtics to persuade him to leave.
I know this isn't news, but man, Kyrie fucked this team so badly. We lose him, Horford, and Baynes and our best hope is to maybe suitably replace one of them...if we can convince someone of that caliber to play here. So depressing.
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I think you use it no matter what the question is which of the approaches you use:
1. Sign a single big target to a 4 year deal- this is the Kemba, Vucevic, Russell angle, Russell is probably the most dangerous here, Kemba the least in terms of not being tradable for value down the line.
2. Trade for a good player's contract into cap space... the Capela/Adams route,
3. Take on a terrible deal for compensation.... Whiteside most likely
4. Sign a bunch of guys to overpays for 1or 2 years... the approach PHI used with Reddick and Amir.
Yes, but I’m looking at the silver lining of never having to watch Kyrie play another minute for this team. I think that would be more depressing than the roster situation this summer.
I think we are actually in agreement here. The cap space is going to be used in some fashion. My post was more directed toward the folly of scenario 1, wherein you attach yourself to a non-superstar for the max or close to it for the next four years solely because you don't think you'd have the opportunity to add a similar player next year. That kind of cap management leaves you saddled with a bloated cap and limited flexibility.
Yeah, it's one reason i'm probably higher on Kemba than any other big money player mentioned. Kemba at the max is a good deal, a good enough deal that barring a catastrophic injury ala Hayward, he'll not only be moveable if things go sideways, he'll be movable for valuable return. I'm less sure that Vucevic or Russell are in that boat.
Well, yeah, obviously you would want Kyrie and friends without the headaches. I guess I was saying he fucked this team over by being a weirdo with an ego problem, not just by deciding he wanted to take his talents to the Jersey Shore.
If they max out Kemba you have to trade Brown in a deal for a big. I’m not going to overpay him at this point next year so get value for him now.
Exactly. The error bands on Kemba are narrow as fuck. He wasn't inefficient the last couple of years and should only get better without four other guys on his back for 38min every game. And by all accounts, he's a good teammate. You know what you're getting from him for the entire deal.
Russell and Vucevic? Yeah they might be worth it. But would it be entirely unsurprising if their walk years were a mirage? We could be stuck with an untradeable dud.
Could we could end up with something like Brogdon and Looney? Not "top tier" like Kemba or Vucevic, but fills both roles were sorely lacking and both are the type of players that would fit in with this roster.
I’m probably the biggest Jaylen stan on the planet but this route makes sense to me if you can get a legit return for him. Maybe it’s a midseason thing when you have the roster filled with more contracts to include as trade fodder in case you’re looking at a non-rookie deal guy. That also gives you the time to confirm whether or not Hayward can be The Guy again.
But I’m also not convinced the Jays wouldn’t suddenly find themselves feeling more comfortable in their own skin minus Kyrie/Morris/Rozier.
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I’d like to see how Jaylen looks with another off season and without Kyrie/Rozier playing varying levels of hero-ball. If he looks good, he’ll be an attractive asset for a team looking for that all-important two-way wing. Fwiw, the guyson rookie contracts that come to my mind, in roughly ascending order of availability/interest : Ayton, Jaren Jackson, Bagley, Markaanen, Carter Jr, John Collins, Jarret Allen, Zach Collins, Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, Bamba, ....., Zubac, Poetl, Giles, Wagner.
A bunch of those guys are likely prohibitively expensive, if not untouchable, others are pretty uninspiring. Maybe Sabonis, Zach Collins, Bam and Bamba are the sweet spot. But I really have no idea how to value bigs right now, when it seems like there’s a big fall-off in perceived value once you get outside of the top tier guys.
Both Tatum and Brown were great at the end of 2018 and the 2018 playoffs. Brad needs to let them flourish again and not be overshadowed by a ball dominant PG that can't play defense. Kemba would be in decline in years 3 and 4 just when Tatum/Brown will be ascending. Kemba's contract would completely hamstring the organization at the moment they need the flexibility to finish off the roster. Why pay $35MM/yr for a player, with his mileage and his best years in the rearview mirror? The Celtics would be so much better off having Brogdon at half the price, that's where you allocate a big contract.
Danny won't panic and sign Kemba, that would be a reactionary move to Kyrie walking. All this is smoke, probably Kemba's agent working the media to get MJ to step up and pay ~ $140MM.
I'm not buying it, we'll see come Sunday and I'll gladly offer up my mea culpa if I'm wrong.
I don't find your take unreasonable at all.
But I'm still pro-Kemba. I have a feeling Williams (Grant) is a player and can contribute from jump street. If that's right and Danny can find a rebounding and post-defending big cheap, this team could be really competitive and fun.
But I'm still pro-Kemba. I have a feeling Williams (Grant) is a player and can contribute from jump street. If that's right and Danny can find a rebounding and post-defending big cheap, this team could be really competitive and fun.
That would work, Looney and Brogdon timelines match up with the J's & the rest.
In 2yrs Hayward would be coming off just when that group would be ascending, and Danny could put the finishing touches on the roster.
Would Kemba really be in that much of a decline in years 3 and 4 of his contract? I'm just not seeing that.
Please don't underestimate the deleterious effect Kyrie had on this roster. He poisoned an entire youth corps and rebuilding the C's includes the rehab of Brown and Tatum.
All the credit to Kemba, the guy balls out, has played big minutes and has only missed 6 games over the last 4 seasons!
BUT I'm skeptical of Kemba fending off Father Time after 8yrs of high/physical usage. Any kind of foot, ankle, knee, hip injury that slows him down renders him useless. His defense is below average now, I bet a 31yr old Kemba will struggle defensively during his 11th and 12th seasons. $35MM/yr will tie up cap space just when the rest of the roster could be hitting its prime.
If the Celtics sign him then I'm probably completely off base.
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The Lakers don't have the cap space....the Lakers don't have the cap space....the Lakers don't have the cap space....the Lakers don't have the cap space....
I don't disagree that the Walker coming is a long shot; I think this is all a move by his agent to get Charlotte to give him more money. But it's fun to dream. But I need to see a realistic scenario on how he could end up on the Lakers this offseason. He's not taking less than the max to go there.
What do we realistically think Brogdan will get offered? I’m wondering if a 3+1, $84M deal would be enough for the bucks to pass on him. If that would do it, I’d give him $20M and the remaining $10-13M to Cousins. I think that team would have a lot of upside if Cousins can return to form, and if they’re in the 6-8 seed range at the deadline he would be very tradeable. I have no idea what his market will be though, as there will be plenty of teams with that amount to spend under the cap.
A lot of talk of trading Jaylen for a big, but I’d hold onto him and see what he can do as a 1a or 1b scorer. If Hayward returns to form (or 90%) he very well could opt out, freeing up another max slot, or if he signed on for a lower annual salary over 4-5 years they could reallocate those funds to Jaylen or Cousins if he worked out.
A lot of talk of trading Jaylen for a big, but I’d hold onto him and see what he can do as a 1a or 1b scorer. If Hayward returns to form (or 90%) he very well could opt out, freeing up another max slot, or if he signed on for a lower annual salary over 4-5 years they could reallocate those funds to Jaylen or Cousins if he worked out.
The Celtics thinking on a guy like Cousins may have changed given their current situation as well as Cousins being a solid citizen in Oakland. However you can recall that they had a chance to trade for him a few years ago and appeared to pass on it for whatever reason.
More to the point, Cousins is virtually unplayable in certain situations because of his conditioning - which might be better after a full healthy offseason but I wouldn't bet on it- but mostly because he is terrible as a defender and gets absolutely roasted on switches. I can't see Ainge/Stevens tying up a decent amount of cap and a roster spot on Boogie.
I also think he is only going to take less money to stay in Golden State or with another contender. He will likely make more than $10-13mm around the league next year.
More to the point, Cousins is virtually unplayable in certain situations because of his conditioning - which might be better after a full healthy offseason but I wouldn't bet on it- but mostly because he is terrible as a defender and gets absolutely roasted on switches. I can't see Ainge/Stevens tying up a decent amount of cap and a roster spot on Boogie.
I also think he is only going to take less money to stay in Golden State or with another contender. He will likely make more than $10-13mm around the league next year.
according to this article 4 for $80M backloaded probably makes the Bucks flinch after paying Lopez and Middleton.
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/06/building-the-2019-20-boston-celtics-heres-why-malcolm-brogdon-would-make-sense-as-a-free-agent-target.html
No thanks on Cousins, we've had enough of moody superstars. GS is perfect for him. I'd rather have Looney anyways,
If everyone in the NBA can see these obvious flaws with Cousins, it’s a pretty solid bet that he won’t end up making much money. If the Celtics won’t pay him because he gets killed on D, why would any other team pay him?
So I think it’s possible that they could get Cousins relatively cheaply. And what he bring offensively and on the glass, even with his flaws on D, is worth a relatively cheap contract.
It's not so much his flaws on D, it's his propensity to be uncoachable and difficult. If he wasn't worth the risk to the team's chemistry and Brad's patience when he was healthy and dominant, why would he be worth it now? Especially after the Kyrie saga.