Its deja vu all over again.Last 10 games: 43 PA, .324/.419/.783, .333 BAbip, 3bb/9k, 5 doubles. 4 HRs.
First 48 games: 145 PA, .144/.245/.176, .217 BAbip, 16bb/43, 4 doubles, 0 HRs.
102 less PA, 1 more double, 4 more HRs. This guy is so maddening at the plate.
OPS up to 58, up from 22 12 days ago. If he can get close to league average, the lineup is dangerously good.
It's a fair question to ask though. He basically said "I can see the ball now." How does he go through such long stretches where he doesn't?You ask this question now?
His last 11 games he has an OPS of 1.142. Totally cherry picked. For 20 games it is still .869. I'll take that
I doubt he was being literal about his eyesight. Hitters often talk about streaks and slumps in terms of "seeing the ball."It's a fair question to ask though. He basically said "I can see the ball now." How does he go through such long stretches where he doesn't?
Not so sure..... there's been a few players (old chum Shea Hillenbrand, that ass) that had actual problems with their eyesight but didn't do anything about it.I doubt he was being literal about his eyesight. Hitters often talk about streaks and slumps in terms of "seeing the ball."
And Will Middlebrooks.Not so sure..... there's been a few players (old chum Shea Hillenbrand, that ass) that had actual problems with their eyesight but didn't do anything about it.
Middlebrooks?Not so sure..... there's been a few players (old chum Shea Hillenbrand, that ass) that had actual problems with their eyesight but didn't do anything about it.
It's always like this with him.You ask this question now?
His last 11 games he has an OPS of 1.142. Totally cherry picked. For 20 games it is still .869. I'll take that
Streaky hitters are supposed to be more valuable than consistent hitters. If that's the case, most metrics are probably severely underestimating his total value.Think about how well you have to play after May 17 to accrue 2.8 fWAR in a season if you have accrued mildly negative WAR for the first six weeks.
Back to 2019: there are no guarantees that he'll keep this up, but I, anyway, want to see where this chart is headed.
I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.Since the game in Houston where Bradley claimed he figured out his new swing mechanics, he has 94 PA:
Keep it up!
- .280/.372/.598 for a .970 OPS, on only a .315 BABIP.
- In that period, he has a manageable 23% K rate.
- 14 of his 23 hits have gone for extra bases.
It does seem that his success in the past 100 PAs is more likely due to him actually figuring something out, rather than just the usual ups and downs of the average baseball batter. As to whether he "remembers it," through the next 100 PAs, well, that's another matter. Looking at his batting woes as though they're a simple matter of just returning to the one batting stance/form that works, sort of invites the black box argument - why not make the whole plane out of the black box stuff?I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.
Judging a ball and a hit pitch are quite different. Fisrt of all judging the ball, despite how quickly JBJ does it , is a slower process, also the distance from the ball, angle, etc, different too. I imagine with my old eyes I would use different lenses in my glasses to play Of than hit.It does seem that his success in the past 100 PAs is more likely due to him actually figuring something out, rather than just the usual ups and downs of the average baseball batter. As to whether he "remembers it," through the next 100 PAs, well, that's another matter. Looking at his batting woes as though they're a simple matter of just returning to the one batting stance/form that works, sort of invites the black box argument - why not make the whole plane out of the black box stuff?
On the whole it's even more frustrating due to his defensive athleticism and discipline. He can make split second tracks on a batted ball, gauge his stride accordingly, and leap and jump. So why not the ability to consistently approach an AB?
He absolutely did, but this was the first offseason he could spend actually working on it, and I'm sure that's a bit different. There's likely some things he and JD talked about last year that couldn't really be adjusted in-season and perhaps that's what he's figured out.I am happy it is going well, but JBJ has figured it out is like a February "best shape of his life" story. It seemed he figured it out in the 2nd half last year, he credited JD, etc.
I wasn't trying to suggest they were the same. JBJ has managed to bring a degree of consistent excellence to his fielding that most people find astonishing. At peak hitting prowess, he's a club-carrying offensive monster - he's got the ability. It's just weird that he can't seem to find some kind of competent, journeyman-like baseline for his hitting skills.Judging a ball and a hit pitch are quite different.
About the bold, this already happened - in 2014. In 384 ABs he put up a slash line of .265/.266./.531, with a .184 batting average, earning him a 49 OPS+. If I recall correctly, it was the impetus for a thread on SoSH about the worst full seasons ever, and this was one of them.His good and bad stretches are so long. He has to be incredibly stubborn about adjusting his swing or something.
If he ever put it all together for one season, he'd might win an MVP award.
If he ever struggled for an entire season, it would be one of worst seasons in the history of MLB.
It's weird because he is "consistent." He's not "streaky." He's good or bad for half seasons at a time.
I’m too young to fully remember Nixon but I’ve never seen a player like jbj. When he’s on I’m so confident in him every time he cones to the plate and when he’s off I’d feel better with almost anyone else batting. DOB mentioned that since May 5 (I think) he’s top five in the AL in extra base hits. That’s just a ridiculous turnaround from where he wasSo at this point we're due for a month of .450 OPS, no? (Kidding.)
He's probably the streakiest Sox player since Trot Nixon, except he's got elite defensive skills that Trot never had to partly make up for his bat. I want him on this team for the long haul, and hopefully he can eventually figure how to avoid these absolutely dogshit months and just be a below average hitter sometimes.
I remember Nixon well, and by my recollection his issue wasn't so much streakiness as health and a huge platoon split. He couldn't hit lefties *at all*, but Jimy felt the need to try to turn him into an everyday player. Trot's far-and-away best year was 2003, the only year he was both healthy and protected from tough lefties (in favor of Kapler). Pre-2003 he wasn't platooned (much), and post-2003 he was never really healthy.I’m too young to fully remember Nixon but I’ve never seen a player like jbj. When he’s on I’m so confident in him every time he cones to the plate and when he’s off I’d feel better with almost anyone else batting. DOB mentioned that since May 5 (I think) he’s top five in the AL in extra base hits. That’s just a ridiculous turnaround from where he was
So long as he can OPS .700 for a season and maintain his defensive skills, he's worth locking up. He's the best defensive outfielder the Red Sox have had in my life (though B-R says Mookie's been better in terms of Defensive WAR, but the eye test certainly contradicts this).do we really want this guy through his early to mid 30s? im grateful for the player he has been on this team but he seems like the exact opposite of what you want to lock up long term. even with his hot streak his OPS is still only .713. Thank him for his time here, but I am hoping Duran breaks out and we can move on from the JBJ era after next season
That's fair. Trot just could not hit lefties (.872 career OPS vs righties and .630 career OPS vs lefties), but his cold streaks (as far as I can remember) were so, so cold. Happy to be corrected on this!I remember Nixon well, and by my recollection his issue wasn't so much streakiness as health and a huge platoon split. He couldn't hit lefties *at all*, but Jimy felt the need to try to turn him into an everyday player. Trot's far-and-away best year was 2003, the only year he was both healthy and protected from tough lefties (in favor of Kapler). Pre-2003 he wasn't platooned (much), and post-2003 he was never really healthy.
The player from that era that I remember as being really streaky was Brian Daubach. But I haven't verified that; I'm just trusting my alcohol-addled memory.
I do not recall anyone, in 30+ years of watching baseball, whose hitting went as extremely hot and cold as JBJ's does.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone go in the prolonged streaks in both directions every season the way he does. Especially the length of the streaks.His good and bad stretches are so long. He has to be incredibly stubborn about adjusting his swing or something.
If he ever put it all together for one season, he'd might win an MVP award.
If he ever struggled for an entire season, it would be one of worst seasons in the history of MLB.
It's weird because he is "consistent." He's not "streaky." He's good or bad for half seasons at a time.
This is where I've landed on JBJ.So long as he can OPS .700 for a season and maintain his defensive skills, he's worth locking up. He's the best defensive outfielder the Red Sox have had in my life (though B-R says Mookie's been better in terms of Defensive WAR, but the eye test certainly contradicts this).
My first thought was Devon White, but he wasn't nearly as streaky.I do not recall anyone, in 30+ years of watching baseball, whose hitting went as extremely hot and cold as JBJ's does.
This is what I always think. If someone has the ability to ops .900+ for over a month at a time, it seems like they should never have month long periods of not looking like a viable major leaguer. Every player has slumps, but such profound, long slumps make no sense for someone who has the ability to be as good as he can be. It’s so bizarrePeople have alluded to this, but the thing that I find most bizarre / interesting about JBJ is like... he has .900 OPS potential. Obviously that's not his baseline, but he clearly has the skill to be an elite batter for extended periods of time. Given that he has such a high ceiling, I would think he would avoid such long stretches where he's OPSing below .500. Maybe around .600, but not .450 for a month and a half. I feel like anyone who hits that badly for that long never rebounds with the hot streaks we're seeing right now.
He's the guy I've always thought was the best comp for Bradley overall. Great defense, decent power, decent speed, good pitch recognition, and poor contact skills. You can have a decent career even if there are long stretches where you look like someone hitting from the wrong side of the plate.My first thought was Devon White, but he wasn't nearly as streaky.
My second thought was Mike Cameron, and he's close if you look at the numbers.
JBJ is actually right handed in everything besides baseball, FWIW.He's the guy I've always thought was the best comp for Bradley overall. Great defense, decent power, decent speed, good pitch recognition, and poor contact skills. You can have a decent career even if there are long stretches where you look like someone hitting from the wrong side of the plate.
Cameron batted and threw right handed, but could sign his name with either hand.JBJ is actually right handed in everything besides baseball, FWIW.