2019 Draft Megathread

EL Jeffe

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Claxton has really grown on me. He has a long ways to go, but has natural size and length, looks comfortable handling the ball, and has genuine 3 point range. He can move his feet, but gets lost too often. That said, for all the love Hates gets, I'm not sure I see a ton of daylight between the two prospects.
 

nighthob

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Bazley makes sense. It’s a real homerun swing. But like I said, you can teach a player to shoot, but you can’t teach him to be an athletic 6’9” guy with an 8’11” standing reach.
 

Cellar-Door

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That would be a pretty terrible draft unless they had a deal lined up for Clarke. His size and lack of a distance game would really limit his usefulness to Boston in a post-Horford world. Aside from that if you’re in rebuilding mode drafting guys to fill out the end of a rotation is a waste.
Clarke is a weird one, his combine wingspan measurement really killed him. Before that I was very in on him as a smallball big. He's got a lot of skill, quick twitch athleticism, and with the NBA conditioning, he was looking like a guy who could be 6'8" 230 or so, basically Draymond sized, with a lot of Draymond qualities. He rebuilt his shot completely, and after a rough first month, his FT shooting both looked good and showed good results (73%). If he had a 7ft wingspan he'd be a great pickup. An ideal defensive small 5, who looked like a candidate to develop a 3pt shot. Sadly his wingspan is like 6'9" and that limits his potential.
 

nighthob

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Claxton has really grown on me. He has a long ways to go, but has natural size and length, looks comfortable handling the ball, and has genuine 3 point range. He can move his feet, but gets lost too often. That said, for all the love Hates gets, I'm not sure I see a ton of daylight between the two prospects.
It’s a frame thing. Hayes looks like he can carry 255-265 pretty easily. Claxton I’m not that sure about. But he’s absolutely more skilled than Hayes. If he had Hayes’ frame he’d be a top 8 pick.
 

nighthob

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Clarke is a weird one, his combine wingspan measurement really killed him. Before that I was very in on him as a smallball big. He's got a lot of skill, quick twitch athleticism, and with the NBA conditioning, he was looking like a guy who could be 6'8" 230 or so, basically Draymond sized, with a lot of Draymond qualities. He rebuilt his shot completely, and after a rough first month, his FT shooting both looked good and showed good results (73%). If he had a 7ft wingspan he'd be a great pickup. An ideal defensive small 5, who looked like a candidate to develop a 3pt shot. Sadly his wingspan is like 6'9" and that limits his potential.
Yeah, I still like him, but he works better with Horford spacing the floor than in a Baynes/Timelord world. He’d look fabulous in Minnesota where KATman exists to space the floor offensively and could use someone like Clarke playing help D in front of him.
 

bowiac

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Listening to Dunc’d on, they’ve sold me on both Bol Bol and Sekou Doumbouya.

For what it’s worth, both grade as top 8-ish prospects on most models I’ve seen as well.
 

BigMike

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If there's some prospect in the 5-10 range that the C's love, you have to think Danny tries to get there with multiple picks.

Does 14 and 20 get you to 10 in this draft?
I don't think so, especially as Atlanta currently owns 10, and has a TON of picks, and it seems like they are looking to consolidate and move up somewhere, instead
 

amfox1

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If there's some prospect in the 5-10 range that the C's love, you have to think Danny tries to get there with multiple picks.

Does 14 and 20 get you to 10 in this draft?
No, especially because MIN reportedly has a deal with Hachimura. ATL is looking to use 8 and 10 to move up and is actively trying to trade their 2nd rounders, so they are also not a candidate. WAS may want to make a deal for additional picks, however, so it is possible that 14 and 20 get you to 9.

If there's a BOS trade up using picks, dollars to doughnuts it's with WAS. If Brown is the trade bait, then presumably BOS is looking to get to 4 to pick Garland.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, I still like him, but he works better with Horford spacing the floor than in a Baynes/Timelord world. He’d look fabulous in Minnesota where KATman exists to space the floor offensively and could use someone like Clarke playing help D in front of him.
I do wonder though, if you're not really contending this year and you think his defense plays in the NBA, why not grab him. His FT% on the rebuilt shot are impressive, and his outside shooting is more a "never shot any" than a "was bad at shooting" lots of current 3pt threat NBA bigs had a similar story in college (including the mentioned KAT, 2-8 vs. Clarke's 4-15). Of course a lot rides on whether you buy his improved FT% was based on the rebuilt shot vs. just a fluke year. One thing about not being a contender and having your 2 long term hopeful contributors as versatile wings, is you don't really need to draft for current fit if you think a guy will fit in 2-3 years.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Bazley makes sense. It’s a real homerun swing. But like I said, you can teach a player to shoot, but you can’t teach him to be an athletic 6’9” guy with an 8’11” standing reach.
It’s a frame thing. Hayes looks like he can carry 255-265 pretty easily. Claxton I’m not that sure about. But he’s absolutely more skilled than Hayes. If he had Hayes’ frame he’d be a top 8 pick.
Yes to all this. Hayes was a blue chip WR prospect before his growth spurt and came to bball on the late side, but he really has some great physical tools. Claxton has a really nice handle, but I don't know how useful that is if it's something he'd rarely be asked to do in the NBA. I do think this draft has a decent number of rotation wings and undersized bigs that could be had later on, but as far as the high end upside projections based on relative youth, body type (room for development) and functional athleticism, there are some guys to get hopeful about within throughout the Celtics' range. In more or less descending order for me:

Lotto: Hayes,Sekou (doubt they'd slip to 14, but stranger things have happened)
First: Okeke, Claxton, Bazley, Samanic, Okpala
Second: Gafford, Sirvdis, Smailagic, Isaiah Roby, Adam Mokoka, maybe Jaylen Hoard

I'm much more into the idea of the Celtics swinging big than I was a day ago. I’m still on board for Clarke though. If he shoots, he’s good. His previous iteration of a jumper was absolutely hideous. It’s not pretty now, but it’s come a long way.
 

BigMike

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No, especially because MIN reportedly has a deal with Hachimura. ATL is looking to use 8 and 10 to move up and is actively trying to trade their 2nd rounders, so they are also not a candidate. WAS may want to make a deal for additional picks, however, so it is possible that 14 and 20 get you to 9.

If there's a BOS trade up using picks, dollars to doughnuts it's with WAS. If Brown is the trade bait, then presumably BOS is looking to get to 4 to pick Garland.
I still would imagine it will cost a hell of a lot more than Brown to get #4
 

nighthob

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Yes to all this. Hayes was a blue chip WR prospect before his growth spurt and came to bball on the late side, but he really has some great physical tools. Claxton has a really nice handle, but I don't know how useful that is if it's something he'd rarely be asked to do in the NBA. I do think this draft has a decent number of rotation wings and undersized bigs that could be had later on, but as far as the high end upside projections based on relative youth, body type (room for development) and functional athleticism, there are some guys to get hopeful about within throughout the Celtics' range. In more or less descending order for me:
If Hayes had Claxton’s drive & kick game or shooting potential we’d be calling this a four man draft. But Claxton’s frame is so painfully thin that I’m not sure that he can get much past 240. But worth a gamble at 20/22.

Lotto: Hayes,Sekou (doubt they'd slip to 14, but stranger things have happened)
First: Okeke, Claxton, Bazley, Samanic, Okpala
Second: Gafford, Sirvdis, Smailagic, Isaiah Roby, Adam Mokoka, maybe Jaylen Hoard
Lecque might be there in the second and represents another home run swing player.
 

Big John

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Do you really want to surrender a known NBA asset for a kid like Garland who played exactly 5 college games? I don't understand the fascination. Guys like Alexander-Walker or Ty Jerome will probably be available without trading up and either one could easily turn out to be better than Garland.
 

BigSoxFan

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Do you really want to surrender a known NBA asset for a kid like Garland who played exactly 5 college games? I don't understand the fascination. Guys like Alexander-Walker or Ty Jerome will probably be available without trading up and either one could easily turn out to be better than Garland.
The intrigue is that if he reaches his potential, you may have a poor man’s Damian Lillard on your hands. He has a great handle and his shooting is elite. In today’s NBA, those are incredibly valuable skills.

I’m not sure how I feel about potential of trading Jaylen to move up to get him, mostly because I just haven’t seen enough of him.
 

DannyDarwinism

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If Hayes had Claxton’s drive & kick game or shooting potential we’d be calling this a four man draft. But Claxton’s frame is so painfully thin that I’m not sure that he can get much past 240. But worth a gamble at 20/22.
It’s not terrible to my eyes. He has some shoulders, as opposed to a guy like Jalen McDaniels, who’d I’d have off my board due to frame even ignoring his alleged shitheadery.
 

Big John

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The intrigue is that if he reaches his potential, you may have a poor man’s Damian Lillard on your hands. He has a great handle and his shooting is elite. In today’s NBA, those are incredibly valuable skills.

I’m not sure how I feel about potential of trading Jaylen to move up to get him, mostly because I just haven’t seen enough of him.
Me either. But I've seen enough of Ty Jerome to think that he will be a very good NBA player. Can Garland defend? Perhaps, but I know that Jerome can.
 

benhogan

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Do you really want to surrender a known NBA asset for a kid like Garland who played exactly 5 college games? I don't understand the fascination. Guys like Alexander-Walker or Ty Jerome will probably be available without trading up and either one could easily turn out to be better than Garland.
Agreed its nuts but happens every year.

The draftniks get hot and horny over every 6'6" 19yr old with a 7' wingspan that has picked up a basketball
 

Big John

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Except that Garland is 6-2, not 6-6, and no one has any idea if he can defend at the NBA level-- or even at the college level against elite college teams.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Do you really want to surrender a known NBA asset for a kid like Garland who played exactly 5 college games? I don't understand the fascination. Guys like Alexander-Walker or Ty Jerome will probably be available without trading up and either one could easily turn out to be better than Garland.
Garland looks really really good to me...…I'm a fan of Coby White as well. You don't need a large sample size to see his skillset translating into a really good NBA point guard just like you didn't need to see a ton of Kyrie back when he was at Duke. . Swapping Jaylen for him frees up Hayward to return to the starting lineup while filling an enormous future need at the 1 is Garland is all he appears to be while also gaining two additional years of a Garland's rookie deal. He's always played against older players growing up including his father, former NBA PG Winston Garland so making the jump to compete against more physically and mentally mature players shouldn't affect Garland as it could other rookies early on in their careers. I like Jaylen but there are a bunch of factors that make a deal for Garland the play here.


Except that Garland is 6-2, not 6-6, and no one has any idea if he can defend at the NBA level-- or even at the college level against elite college teams.
This is 2019. There is more AAU tape on players today then there was on most players collegiate careers 30 years ago. Garland has a reputation as a heady defender and tough competitor against elite competition who has the physical tools to be just fine in this area.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Peter Vescey is reporting that NO is trying to get to 2 in order to get RJ Barrett.
They can try all they want. Memphis didn't trade Conley so they could pass on a potential franchise PG to select 4th in what is considered a 3-player draft at the top. What could they possibly offer to make it enticing enough for the Grizzlies to completely shift gears?
 

jon abbey

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They can try all they want. Memphis didn't trade Conley so they could pass on a potential franchise PG to select 4th in what is considered a 3-player draft at the top. What could they possibly offer to make it enticing enough for the Grizzlies to completely shift gears?
It depends what they think the difference between Morant and Garland is, Garland seems to be jumping up in people's estimation at the end here and Memphis could get him as their potential franchise PG at 4th. I'd at least be curious to hear what they offer...

That would be a very exciting development for Knicks fans also IMO (lucking into Morant at 3), which is why it will not happen. :)
 

nighthob

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They can try all they want. Memphis didn't trade Conley so they could pass on a potential franchise PG to select 4th in what is considered a 3-player draft at the top. What could they possibly offer to make it enticing enough for the Grizzlies to completely shift gears?
They’d really need to convert that Laker haul into a player that could tempt the Grizz. Unless Chris Wallace likes Lonzo that’s the LA pick package. Or Ingram/#4/LA pick(s) for Barrett with Memphis grabbing Garland instead. I honestly don’t see Morant as a franchise player so I’d probably look at trades more favorably. I think his ceiling’s as a top twentyish player, so I think there’s a package that could induce me to draft a top fiftyish one instead.
 

jon abbey

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Garland was a four time state champion in high school in Tennessee and a three time Tennessee Mr. Basketball, it's easy to see (for me anyway) how MEM might be tempted by him plus a bunch of assets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It depends what they think the difference between Morant and Garland is, Garland seems to be jumping up in people's estimation at the end here and Memphis could get him as their potential franchise PG at 4th. I'd at least be curious to hear what they offer...

That would be a very exciting development for Knicks fans also IMO (lucking into Morant at 3), which is why it will not happen. :)
This is a fair point. It is just such a daring move that few GM/owners are willing to make in moving down.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Garland looks really really good to me...…I'm a fan of Coby White as well. You don't need a large sample size to see his skillset translating into a really good NBA point guard just like you didn't need to see a ton of Kyrie back when he was at Duke. . Swapping Jaylen for him frees up Hayward to return to the starting lineup while filling an enormous future need at the 1 is Garland is all he appears to be while also gaining two additional years of a Garland's rookie deal. He's always played against older players growing up including his father, former NBA PG Winston Garland so making the jump to compete against more physically and mentally mature players shouldn't affect Garland as it could other rookies early on in their careers. I like Jaylen but there are a bunch of factors that make a deal for Garland the play here.



This is 2019. There is more AAU tape on players today then there was on most players collegiate careers 30 years ago. Garland has a reputation as a heady defender and tough competitor against elite competition who has the physical tools to be just fine in this area.
Plus he’s played a lot for Team USA and has typically drawn good reviews for his play and how he’s looked in scrimmage against NBA-level talent (Tre Jones can defend) with stat lines from the Hoops Summits to match. Balance, footwork, handles, shake, and shooting off the dribble and off the catch- it’s easy to see what he’d add to the Celtics. My main concern is that “routinely misses basic reads” is frequent criticism of him as a ball-handler, both in his limited time at Vandy and with Team USA. But there’s a lot there for a good coach to work with. Then again, I’d be happy just taking Tremont Waters a round later.

From everything I’ve heard, Kevin Porter Jr. did not acquit himself well during the draft process and his interviews did nothing to clear up the character concerns. I’d be surprised if the Celtics to him, even at 22, and I think he’ll slide unless Miami takes him. He did get a green room invite though, so who knows.
 
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EL Jeffe

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https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1141516067266863109
Jeff Goodman tweeting that Bazley is in play at #15 for Detroit. Bazley is another guy I like in the 1st. My preferred haul at this point (barring trades):

Goga (draft & stash)
Bazley (tools & upside)
Claxton or Fernando (I like Fernando more than most, I'd bet on his combination of NBA-ready physical profile and untapped long-term potential)

Figure out the PG situation in free agency, trade or 2020.
 

DJnVa

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They can try all they want. Memphis didn't trade Conley so they could pass on a potential franchise PG to select 4th in what is considered a 3-player draft at the top. What could they possibly offer to make it enticing enough for the Grizzlies to completely shift gears?
Yeah, unless they have really good intelligence that the Knicks wouldn't take Morant at #3, there's no way that's happening. And even the Knicks FO isn't dumb enough to pass on Morant.


Wait: Crazy scenario.

1--Nets pass on Kyrie without with KD
2--Knicks swoop in and sign him
3--Knicks then pass on Morant
4--Memphis drafts Morant #4

What? It could happen!

And then
5--Kyrie gets pissed within a year as Morant becomes franchise PG elsewhere
 

Average Game James

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Yeah, unless they have really good intelligence that the Knicks wouldn't take Morant at #3, there's no way that's happening. And even the Knicks FO isn't dumb enough to pass on Morant.


Wait: Crazy scenario.

1--Nets pass on Kyrie without with KD
2--Knicks swoop in and sign him
3--Knicks then pass on Morant
4--Memphis drafts Morant #4

What? It could happen!

And then
5--Kyrie gets pissed within a year as Morant becomes franchise PG elsewhere
Hard to see Morant dropping from 3 - have to imagine teams looking for a PG (PHO, CHI, ORL...) would try to trade up and grab him, and if the Knicks are not drafting a PG because they signed Kyrie, have to figure they can probably get Hunter or Culver or Reddish at 6-7.
 

DJnVa

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The Knicks could extract something out of Memphis to jump from 4 to 3 then. But that's a lot of work for Memphis and I can't see what they're going to get from NO that's going to be worth all that work to jump back up to 3. Just stay put and get your guy.
 

lovegtm

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This is a fair point. It is just such a daring move that few GM/owners are willing to make in moving down.
Yeah, although we've seen it twice at the top of the draft the past two years, and it worked out great for the Celtics, and ok for the Hawks (Luka vs Trae got a lot closer as the year went on). Recency bias affects GMs/owners as much as anyone, so it might feel less risky now.
 

DannyDarwinism

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https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1141516067266863109
Jeff Goodman tweeting that Bazley is in play at #15 for Detroit. Bazley is another guy I like in the 1st. My preferred haul at this point (barring trades):

Goga (draft & stash)
Bazley (tools & upside)
Claxton or Fernando (I like Fernando more than most, I'd bet on his combination of NBA-ready physical profile and untapped long-term potential)

Figure out the PG situation in free agency, trade or 2020.
Goga' strengths- rim protection, floor-spacing, screen-setting - would really help the Jays on both sides of the ball. I don't think he's a stash candidate though, as he's typically described as one of the most NBA-ready late lottery picks and he's been successful grown men.

Judging from the guys Ainge had in yesterday, looks like they're trying to trade back and pick up 2nd round picks, presumably either because they think the draft is really flat and they can get some extra value trading down, and/or to open up some more cap space with the 2nd round roster holds.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, although we've seen it twice at the top of the draft the past two years, and it worked out great for the Celtics, and ok for the Hawks (Luka vs Trae got a lot closer as the year went on). Recency bias affects GMs/owners as much as anyone, so it might feel less risky now.
Not really. Ainge never mentioned Fultz by name after winning the lottery and after bringing him in it was obvious he didn't like him which led to Fultz scheduling workouts with other teams. Doncic had plenty of question marks and refused to workout or meet with Atlanta prior to the draft.

That is not what is happening in Memphis who by all accounts love Morant after having him in.
 

bowiac

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There would almost certainly have to be a lot more value going to the Pelicans
Robert Covington is good, and is signed to a team-friendly deal. He was the centerpiece to a trade that brought in Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, it's the #4 pick in an unusually weak draft, where conventional wisdom is that there's not much difference between #4 and #11 (see for example, the number of draft boards which have Garland ranked anywhere from like 4th to 15th).

He's on the older side, and was hurt for much of the year, so I would expect New Orleans to be getting more back, but this isn't facially nuts to me if the Pelicans are committed to trading the pick.
 

tims4wins

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If I'm a GM tonight in the 5-10 range I am swinging for the fences and drafting Cam Reddish. He may end up a complete bust, but it's a gamble worth taking IMO.
 

BigSoxFan

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Robert Covington is good, and is signed to a team-friendly deal. He was the centerpiece to a trade that brought in Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, it's the #4 pick in an unusually weak draft, where conventional wisdom is that there's not much difference between #4 and #11 (see for example, the number of draft boards which have Garland ranked anywhere from like 4th to 15th).

He's on the older side, and was hurt for much of the year, so I would expect New Orleans to be getting more back, but this isn't facially nuts to me if the Pelicans are committed to trading the pick.
Agree to disagree. Covington does nothing for a team with the Pelicans’ time horizon. This may be a 3 player draft but teams always find new love interests close to the draft. Someone will fall in love with Garland, Hunter, etc. I’m not giving that up for Robert Covington.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Agree to disagree. Covington does nothing for a team with the Pelicans’ time horizon. This may be a 3 player draft but teams always find new love interests close to the draft. Someone will fall in love with Garland, Hunter, etc. I’m not giving that up for Robert Covington.
It's unique in that Garland is a PG and teams in need of a PG generally fall head over heels with the best ones of a draft. Hunter can fit in with pretty much anyone with his skillset but Garland will be the specific target of a select few teams who will prop up his value.
 

BigSoxFan

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Various reports indicate a lot of teams at the back of the draft want to trade up to the 20-23 range. Celtics have 20 and 22.
Possible Targets:
25: Blazers - doesn't seem likely that they would give up much to move up a couple spots
26: Cavs - also picking #5. Not sure they would give up much
27: Nets - I could see them being interested in moving up since they gave their #17 to Atlanta
28: Warriors - doubt they give up anything given their injuries
29: Spurs - already have #19 so probably not
30: Pistons - already have #15 so probably not
 

Mooch

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SI.com mock - 14 Herro, 20 Claxton, 22 Langford (was 14 Washington, 20 Horton-Tucker, 22 K.Johnson)
Maybe a bit of a reach at 14 but I'd be thrilled with Herro at 20 or 22. I see a lot of JJ Redick in his game and the Celtics need better outside shooting. I like the kid a lot.
 

Saints Rest

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Tonight will be the 4th time (potentially) in their history that the Celts have had 3 1st round picks.

2016: Jaylen Brown (3); Yabu (16); Ante Zizic (23). [Sidenote: Amazing that they also took 5 (!) 2nd round picks that same draft.]
2004: Al Jefferson (15); Delonte West (24); Tony Allen (25).
2001: Joe Johnson (10); Kedrick Brown (11); Joseph Forte (21).

2004 seems like a pretty similar set of picks (in terms of slotting) to this year. I think we would have to be pretty happy with a haul that good this year.
 

nighthob

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2016: Jaylen Brown (3); Yabu (16); Ante Zizic (23). [Sidenote: Amazing that they also took 5 (!) 2nd round picks that same draft.]
Technically five, but the first two were selected for Memphis, and come to fruition when Boston picks at #20 tonight.
 

djbayko

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Maybe a bit of a reach at 14 but I'd be thrilled with Herro at 20 or 22. I see a lot of JJ Redick in his game and the Celtics need better outside shooting. I like the kid a lot.
Not that they're always correct, but the betting market strongly suggests he won't be there in the 20's.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Not that they're always correct, but the betting market strongly suggest he won't be there in the 20's.
My book who has these up has Herro U17.5 and you have to lay -270.

Btw, this is either going to be really fantastic or a trainwreck of epic proportions that I have access to literally thousands of dollars of like 50 different draft props. I've already played 3 that I feel are super strong wagers but it seems to be a ton of chalk......which can be dangerous.
(Time) Lord help me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Are we game-threading in here tonight, or is this strictly an analysis thread?
Sure why not if nobody objects. Keeping it all in one place is always good. Over the past week we've had several threads that all ran into each other.