The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Yeah, listening to the two Boston radio sports shows yesterday afternoon was pure comedy gold. These clowns are trying to convince listeners that one dud in a successful 4-game California road swing is more predictive of the team as a whole because of which game the dud occurred in. It was painfully enjoyable to listen to their cluelessness.
I heard them try to address what I assume was a white caller trying to explain why white fans should be more understanding of the stance that players like Michael Bennett have taken regarding law enforcement treatment of black Americans. Their "I really don't want to think about that kind of stuff" blow off of the caller's concerns was ridiculous. Fuck those two.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
The listless Celtics getting destroyed 19-8 by the resurgent Kings. Sadly, this looks over.

Congrats, Sacramento SoSH fans!
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Fox went 1-9 on shots not at the rim in the loss against the Celtics. He was 6-6 close in. Fox is making 38.6% of his jumpers this season, including 37% from three. He's kind of a new age Rondo, but is better at the rim and behind the arc. Believe it or not, second year Rondo hit a higher percentage of jumpers than Fox. His ceiling is of course a lot higher than Rondo's was.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Fox went 1-9 on shots not at the rim in the loss against the Celtics. He was 6-6 close in. Fox is making 38.6% of his jumpers this season, including 37% from three. He's kind of a new age Rondo, but is better at the rim and behind the arc. Believe it or not, second year Rondo hit a higher percentage of jumpers than Fox. His ceiling is of course a lot higher than Rondo's was.
Yeah, although iirc correctly, Rondo's jumpers were often just left completely wide open. Fox at least prompts closeouts.

I think people obsess too much about shooting efficiency with young guards. They're going to need to make contested jumpers and floaters routinely, and it opens up a ton of the game if other teams have to contest those hard. I like seeing guys like Fox get in-game reps with those types of shots, and not worry so much about efficiency early on.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Yeah, although iirc correctly, Rondo's jumpers were often just left completely wide open. Fox at least prompts closeouts.

I think people obsess too much about shooting efficiency with young guards. They're going to need to make contested jumpers and floaters routinely, and it opens up a ton of the game if other teams have to contest those hard. I like seeing guys like Fox get in-game reps with those types of shots, and not worry so much about efficiency early on.
You are right. For most, it's about figuring out your best spots on the floor to make a high percentage of jumpers. For a few great shooters, they hit from everywhere at a high level. I expect Fox to be a better than average jump shooter eventually. The future in Sacto is very bright, especially if they can do something with the $30 million coming off the books this season, $55 million if Barnes opts out.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,808
The back of your computer
Update on picks as of 3/15am:

MEM 1st round pick - currently #7, top 8 protected, 1.5 games behind NO w/13 games left (won't convey to BOS*)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 5.0 games behind LAC w/15 games left (will convey to BOS*)
LAC 1st round pick - currently #18, top 14 protected, 5.0 games ahead of SAC w/13 games left (will convey to BOS)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #51 or #52, 31-55 protected, 2.0 games behind IND w/13 games left (won't convey to MEM)
BOS also has its own 1st round pick - currently #21 or #22

MEM schedule (6H, 7A, 6 vs. sub-.465) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR, ORL, OKC, HOU, WAS, MIN, PHX, LAC, DET

SAC schedule (7H, 8A, 8 vs. sub-.465) - HOU(x2), DAL(x2), NO(x2), PHI, CHI, BRK, PHX, LAL, SA, CLE, UTA, POR

LAC schedule (8H, 5A, 7 vs. sub-.465) - CLE(x2), NYK, LAL, CHI, BRK, IND, MIN, MIL, MEM, HOU, GS, UTA

BOS schedule (6H, 7A, 4 vs. sub-.465) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), DEN, PHI, ATL, SA, CLE, CHA, BRK, ORL, WAS

*Excludes any effects of the lottery.

Race for #8:
6. DAL 27-41 (lost 7)
7. MEM 28-41 (lost 1)
8. WAS 29-39 (won 2)
9. NO 30-40 (lost 4)

Race for #13:
13. MIN 32-37
14. SAC 33-34 (lost 2)

Race for #56/3-seed:
51T/5-seed. BOS 42-27 (won 1)
55/4-seed. PHI 43-25 (won 2)
56/3-seed. IND 44-25 (won 2)
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,770
Pittsburgh, PA
thanks Adam, very helpful.

Feels like SAC could lose their remaining 15 games and they might not be much lower than 11th or 12th.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
9,058
It is crazy, how significant it would be if that King’s pick ended up being 2nd or 3rd. Either for the Celtics or in a trade.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
thanks Adam, very helpful.

Feels like SAC could lose their remaining 15 games and they might not be much lower than 11th or 12th.
It feels that way but that's probably not true. If they lost all their games, they'd most likely finish 9th or 10th.

14th Kings 33-35
13th Wolves 32-37, 38 projected wins.
12th Orlando 32-38, 37-38 projected wins
11th Charlotte 31-37 37-38 pw
10th LAL 31-38 37 pw
9th NO 30-41 34 pw
8th Wizards 29-40 34 pw

Realistically, the lowest I can see them falling is 10th. That would be a 10.9% chance of landing a pick between 2-4. 11th is 7.4%, 12th 5.7%, 13th 3.7%, 14th 1.9%.

The absolute worst spot they could finish is 5th.

The good news is Orlando and Charlotte are only 1 game out of the playoffs and the Wizards 3.5. The bad news is the Lakers and Pelicans have been playing awful of late and the Wolves aren't playing for anything.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
It feels that way but that's probably not true. If they lost all their games, they'd most likely finish 9th or 10th.

14th Kings 33-35
13th Wolves 32-37, 38 projected wins.
12th Orlando 32-38, 37-38 projected wins
11th Charlotte 31-37 37-38 pw
10th LAL 31-38 37 pw
9th NO 30-41 34 pw
8th Wizards 29-40 34 pw

Realistically, the lowest I can see them falling is 10th. That would be a 10.9% chance of landing a pick between 2-4. 11th is 7.4%, 12th 5.7%, 13th 3.7%, 14th 1.9%.

The absolute worst spot they could finish is 5th.

The good news is Orlando and Charlotte are only 1 game out of the playoffs and the Wizards 3.5. The bad news is the Lakers and Pelicans have been playing awful of late and the Wolves aren't playing for anything.
Yeah, the Lakers are pretty clearly tanking for the outside shot at AD via trade. I suppose they successfully did it for 3 straight years to keep their pick, so they have some experience.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Wow, NO sucks. 2 OT. Well, 1.1 seconds left.

edit: LOL, coach gets a T and costs his team the game.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
The Pels are pretty much irrelevant at this point anyway given how things are trending, but they just lost in possibly the most ridiculous way possible.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Race for #8:
6. MEM 28-42 (lost 1)
7. DAL 28-41 (won 1)
8. NO 30-42 (lost 6)
9. WAS 30-40 (won 1)
Clutch loss by the Pels, with DAL and WAS both winning. Great tech by the Pels' coach at the end of the game.

Pelicans had the ball up 3 with 7.7 seconds left.

5-second inbound violation
Don't foul up 3
Give up game-tying 3
Tech calling TO they didn't have

Lost by 2.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,770
Pittsburgh, PA
Wizards win over the Grizzlies. And Dallas blows it and ends up seizing victory (albeit only over the Cavs). So Memphis is back in the 6 spot. Well, tied in the wins column, percentage points ahead with an extra loss. I guess for tanking at end-of-season, don't you compare the wins column, since you gotta assume every team is capable of losing out?
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Wizards win over the Grizzlies. And Dallas blows it and ends up seizing victory (albeit only over the Cavs). So Memphis is back in the 6 spot. Well, tied in the wins column, percentage points ahead with an extra loss. I guess for tanking at end-of-season, don't you compare the wins column, since you gotta assume every team is capable of losing out?
Yup, all about that wins column.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,808
The back of your computer
Race for #56/3-seed:
53/5-seed. BOS 43-27 (won 2)
55/4-seed. IND 44-26 (lost 1)
56/3-seed. PHI 45-25 (won 4)

By the end of today, BOS could be one game back of both IND and PHI. BOS owns the tiebreaker with PHI (3-0, with one game left). BOS and IND are 1-1 with two games left.

Edit: PHI wins. BOS one game back of IND, two of PHI. 12 games to go.
 
Last edited:

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,808
The back of your computer
Update on picks as of 3/18am:

MEM 1st round pick - currently #6, top 8 protected, 2.0 games behind WAS w/12 games left (won't convey to BOS*)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 6.0 games behind LAC w/13 games left (will convey to BOS*)
LAC 1st round pick - currently #18, top 14 protected, 6.0 games ahead of SAC w/11 games left (will convey to BOS)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #53, 31-55 protected, 2.0 games behind PHI w/12 games left (won't convey to MEM)
BOS also has its own 1st round pick - currently #23

MEM schedule (6H, 6A, 5 vs. sub-.465) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR, ORL, OKC, HOU, MIN, PHX, LAC, DET

SAC schedule (6H, 7A, 7 vs. sub-.465) - HOU(x2), DAL(x2), NO(x2), BRK, PHX, LAL, SA, CLE, UTA, POR

LAC schedule (6H, 5A, 6 vs. sub-.465) - CLE(x2), NYK, LAL, IND, MIN, MIL, MEM, HOU, GS, UTA

BOS schedule (5H, 7A, 4 vs. sub-.465) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), DEN, PHI, SA, CLE, CHA, BRK, ORL, WAS

*Excludes any effects of the lottery.

Race for #8:
6. MEM 28-42 (lost 2)
7. DAL 28-41 (won 1)
8. NO 30-42 (lost 6)
9. WAS 30-40 (won 1)

Race for #13:
13. ORL 33-38 (won 2)
14. SAC 34-35 (won 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
53/5-seed. BOS 43-27 (won 2)
54/4-seed. IND 44-26 (lost 1)
56/3-seed. PHI 45-25 (won 4)
 

Carmine Hose

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2001
5,046
Dorchester, MA
In the Ringer's Tank for Zion piece, Kevin O'Connor (Celtics fan FTR) notes that Memphis is trying to win to convey the pick at 9 or later to the Celtics now and not wait it out and potentially lose an unprotected in two years.

"The sixth-worst record, which is currently owned by the Grizzlies—who are trying to win games to convey their pick to the Celtics—is not out of reach if they keep losing."

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/3/18/18270319/zion-williamson-tanking-nba-draft-lebron-james-anthony-davis
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
The most entertaining part of the article was the suggestion that the Lakers move LeBron in order to build a superteam around Kawhi or KD. Bucher (yeah, yeah, I know) mentioned that Jeanie Buss had considered that a couple of months ago. It would be really hilarious if the Lakers exiled LeBron someplace in order to sign Leonard+ (say to the Knicks for their #1 and Knox in order to sweeten their offer to New Orleans for Davis).

EDIT: I don't mean, Zion, of course. Because if the Knicks land #1 it's AD or bust. But if they land 3-5, they probably can't get AD (unless they surrender unprotected 2021 & 2023 #1s).
 
Last edited:

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Nets outscore Kings 45-18 in the fourth quarter in Sacto to beat the Kings by a bucket.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,452
Haiku
*searches frantically for @BigSoxFan 's prognostications*

I watched a bit, but turned it off when it was 91-67 SAC. You're welcome, Celtics Nation.
It is clear that you cannot watch any further NBA games in this season. It is a far, far better thing you do than you have ever done.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Would love to find the stats on the Kings this year relating to how often they have gone, say, at least +15 in a quarter and at least -15 in the next. Their style is fun but that combined with their youth leaves them open to these wild swings. They've won plenty of games by blowing the doors off someone in the 4th, but plenty others have gone against them through similar circumstances. At this point I'm just happy they still had this limitation this season. If this pick were lotto-protected this year but not in future years, we'd be feeling pretty bad about its value. Just making the playoffs in the West gives a draft pick a floor of like 18.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
It would be nice if the Clippers stopped winning, but I don't see that happening. The pick is at 18 now, but only one more loss than the 21st pick. Celtic sit at 22.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
If I’m not mistaken, magic number of LAC wins/SAC losses now sits at 4. Almost there. Doc really did us a solid this year. This pick conveying AFTER trading Harris is pretty astonishing, really.

Clips upcoming schedule is pretty easy but 4 of next 6 are on road. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a couple. Their last 4 includes Houston, GS, and Utah and that GS game may still be meaningful.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,593
Here
The amount of separation created the last few weeks between playoff and non-playoff spots in the West is crazy. You had like 7-8 teams competing to get in and now it’s all but assured which 8 are in.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
Grizzlies just Kings’d it. Blew 20 pt 4th quarter lead and now going to OT against Rockets.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,808
The back of your computer
Update on picks as of 3/21am:

MEM 1st round pick - currently #7, top 8 protected, 0.5 games behind WAS/NO w/11 games left (won't convey to BOS*)
SAC 1st round pick - currently #14, top 1 protected, 7.0 games behind OKC/LAC w/12 games left (will convey to BOS*)
LAC 1st round pick - currently #18T, top 14 protected, 7.0 games ahead of SAC w/10 games left (will convey to BOS)
BOS 2nd round pick - currently #52, 31-55 protected, 4.0 games behind PHI w/10 games left (won't convey to MEM)
BOS also has its own 1st round pick - currently #22

MEM schedule (5H, 6A, 4 vs. sub-.455) - DAL(x2), GS(x2), POR, OKC, MIN, PHX, LAC, ORL, DET

SAC schedule (5H, 7A, 7 vs. sub-.455) - HOU(x2), DAL(x2), NO(x2), PHX, LAL, SA, CLE, UTA, POR

LAC schedule (5H, 5A, 6 vs. sub-.455) - CLE(x2), NYK, LAL, MIN, MIL, MEM, HOU, GS, UTA

BOS schedule (4H, 6A, 3 vs. sub-.455) - MIA(x2), IND(x2), SA, CLE, CHA, BRK, ORL, WAS

*Excludes any effects of the lottery.

Race for #8:
6. DAL 28-43 (lost 2)
7. MEM 29-42 (won 1)
8. WAS 30-42 (lost 2)
9. NO 31-43 (lost 1)

Race for #13:
13. ORL 34-38 (won 3)
14. SAC 34-36 (lost 1)

Race for #56/3-seed:
52/5-seed. BOS 43-29 (lost 2)
53/4-seed. IND 44-28 (lost 3)
56/3-seed. PHI 47-25 (won 6)
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
If I’m not mistaken, magic number of LAC wins/SAC losses now sits at 4. Almost there. Doc really did us a solid this year. This pick conveying AFTER trading Harris is pretty astonishing, really.

Clips upcoming schedule is pretty easy but 4 of next 6 are on road. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a couple. Their last 4 includes Houston, GS, and Utah and that GS game may still be meaningful.
Is it safe to start rooting for the Clips to lose a few? Could make a difference of 4-5 spots in the draft.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
Is it safe to start rooting for the Clips to lose a few? Could make a difference of 4-5 spots in the draft.
SAC isnt catching them for the last playoff spot and nobody in the bottom half of the playoff bracket in east is going to pass them either. Not sure there is too much room for them to go besides finishing 8 in the west .
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
We're sitting at 20 now, best case scenario is 18. So, there's not much difference. It's amazing though that not long ago there was significant concern that LAC wouldn't make the playoffs and the pick wouldn't convey, and now the pick is getting later and later in the draft due to their continued success.

I would like Memphis to tank a bit more, though. It would be really annoying if someone (other than the Celtics) got lucky in the lottery and pushed Memphis out to #9.