The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

lexrageorge

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Ok you baited me back. :)
OK, so back at you..., with my apologies for missing what should have been obvious sarcasm. But onward we go....

The bolded was sarcasm. As far as there not being any projection system to account for injuries, trades, a mid-round draft stud, and the random events of the draft lottery I'll address each...…..

Injuries - Yes, it was projectable that KG would fall off the cliff with injuries as we had his medicals including those of his knee which caused him to miss games and many practices in his final years here.
I was mainly referring to injuries that don't happen to old players, but instead happen to the Cousin's and Hayward's of the league. And these injuries can happen to other teams competing for the tankathon, or cause said teams to compete for the tankathon (David Robinson says hello).

Trades - We had information of the Nets lack of future assets to make trades. They had gutter system of prospects and were unable to trade any 1st round picks for 6 years due to The Stepien Rule.
Fair enough for the Nets. Not sure the same could apply to Memphis or Sacramento.

Mid-Round Draft Stud - We have decades of draft data showing the dropoff in "draft studs" outside of the Top-3 in the draft.
Paul Pierce and Donovan Mitchell say hello.

Random Chance of Draft Lottery - We know that there is no "random chance" in the lottery as each teams chances are weighed based on previous season record.
That weighted chance was such a help to the Celtics in 1997 and again in 2007.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Isiah Thomas joining the tv crew in the booth for a few minutes during this OKC/Sac game. Long enough to 1) compare De'Aaron Fox to Steph Curry when they entered the league.....despite being polar opposites in virtually every aspect of their games and 2) Suggest that Buddy Hield should be taking more mid-range shots to get his shooting pct up.

Cannot make this up
 

nomarshaus

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What would Shumpert bring back in a trade? Low 1st? Seems like he'd be useful to a contender. Expiring deal.

Just trying to come up with ways the Kings could get worse.
 

lovegtm

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Isiah Thomas joining the tv crew in the booth for a few minutes during this OKC/Sac game. Long enough to 1) compare De'Aaron Fox to Steph Curry when they entered the league.....despite being polar opposites in virtually every aspect of their games and 2) Suggest that Buddy Hield should be taking more mid-range shots to get his shooting pct up.

Cannot make this up
Someone give that man a GM job before he gets snatched up!
 

HomeRunBaker

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SAC wins a close one. Their pick sits at #13, and our own pick sits at #16. :-/
Such a fun team but they made so many "young mistakes" down the stretch I'd have to believe they will struggle winning close games especially on the road. Fox is the real deal.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That's not his argument. His argument is we all knew the Nets would suck but they could have sucked to the tune of the 7th and 9th pick instead of the 1st and 3rd.
Yes and where the Cs got really lucky is that BRK could have overpaid decent vets to get a few more ins but decided to horde cap space to accelerate the rebuild. Which also had the effect of giving the Cs better picks.

DA took a calculated gamble with all of these picks. BRK he drew an inside straight. MEM it looks like top pair. SAC, let's hope for the best. It's early.
 

BigSoxFan

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Kings win. Grizzlies win and now have the 3rd best record in the entire damn league. What a disappointment.
 

amfox1

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Yes, but SAC is in a three-way tie for the 8th playoff spot. SAC wins the tiebreaker w/SA and DAL based on head-to-head winning percentage (SAC 1-0, SA 1-1, DAL 0-1). Four games separate ##2-13 in the West, so it is way too early to tell. My guess is that SAC will end up in the back third of the lottery (##9-14). The other three picks will roughly be where they are now, in some order.

  • Three-Team Tiebreaker:
    • 1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
    • 2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
    • 3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
    • 4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
    • 5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
    • 6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed
 

HomeRunBaker

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LAC-SAC tonight (1030p, TNT). Time to start ensuring Sacto ends up in the lottery.
It's only a quarter of the way into the season. While I like what the Kings are becoming it is going to be very challenging for them to make the Top-8 in the WC.
 

Imbricus

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Since the Kings started 6-3, they are 4-8. To be fair, their schedule lately hasn't been easy, so they're probably better than a .333 team.
 

nighthob

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Hey if the reward for drafting Tatum over Fultz is Kel Johnson or De'Andre Hunter, we'll all be dancing a jig. (I mean better still if it's Cam Reddish, but the other two are more realistic.)
 

lovegtm

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Since the Kings started 6-3, they are 4-8. To be fair, their schedule lately hasn't been easy, so they're probably better than a .333 team.
They're better than expected, but the middle/lower end of the west is brutal, and a lot of those teams started out unsustainably poorly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Fred Katz‏ @FredKatz
Our own @mr_jasonjones is reporting the Kings are “closely monitoring the Washington Wizards with an eye on making a play for forward Otto Porter.”
This may be close to being done. Porter is listed as "Out - Personal Reasons" for tonights game. A really nice get for the Kings presumably for expiring deals and a pick.

Porter can be plugged right in at the 3 for Shumpert for a team who will be tons below the cap next year so he'd essentially be their de facto FA signing. Not bad for a guy who shot 44% from 3 each of the last two seasons and will now be in an uptempo offense that creates more open looks.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Beal has to be the next domino, right?
Almost certainly right? He's a much more valuable asset on an easily moved contract compared to Wall and it seems a full overhaul is in the works right now. I just wonder if there is a 3rd domino in someone able to take on Wall (Knicks?). I mean I'd imagine they could dump him tomorrow for Kanter's expiring+ but would likely hold out for much more.

Let's not forget that is was the Sacramento Kings who put the max offer sheet on the table for Porter just 18 months ago. He's always been a target for them.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Nets blow a 7 point lead against Grizzlies in final 33 seconds. I have no idea how nor do I feel like looking it up. Awful.
 

benhogan

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Almost certainly right? He's a much more valuable asset on an easily moved contract compared to Wall and it seems a full overhaul is in the works right now. I just wonder if there is a 3rd domino in someone able to take on Wall (Knicks?). I mean I'd imagine they could dump him tomorrow for Kanter's expiring+ but would likely hold out for much more.

Let's not forget that is was the Sacramento Kings who put the max offer sheet on the table for Porter just 18 months ago. He's always been a target for them.
If they could move Beal and Porter for some young assets, losing Wall for expiring contract would be a great move.

Start a full-on tank run for Zion.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If they could move Beal and Porter for some young assets, losing Wall for expiring contract would be a great move.

Start a full-on tank run for Zion.
I have Zion behind Barrett as the latter has a lot of physical growth to provide upside but I get your point. Porter is the pure salary dump as he isn't going to fetch much in terms of assets aside from salary relief and anyone taking on Wall's contract (seriously, why isn't he a Knick already?) would be similar. Beal is their crown jewel in providing actual young talent/draft picks and he should fetch a ton for the Wiz.

I also wonder if this is Grunfeld's final act as his prior rebuild didn't exactly work out very well (JaVale, Blatche, Crittenton, PSwaggy, Jamal Crawford, etc). That is a good job for somebody if they are allowed to do their job.....you have a clean slate and an owner willing to spend.
 

nighthob

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Porter for Z-Bo (expiring contract), Koufos (expiring contract), Labissiere and a pair of 2nd round picks works in the trade machine.
The Wiz are going to want more than a bench depth player and a pair of #2s. Despite the lost quarter season there are a lot of teams that could use a quality 3&D SF, and they’ll likely be offering more.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Wiz are going to want more than a bench depth player and a pair of #2s. Despite the lost quarter season there are a lot of teams that could use a quality 3&D SF, and they’ll likely be offering more.
Taking this discussion to another (speculative) level here...…Porter is in David Falk's stable and while they received an offer sheet from Sacramento 18 months ago they choose to sign the same offer sheet presented to them by Brooklyn. If Porter feels about going to Sacramento similarly to how Paul Pierce felt about being shipped to Portland when he essentially shot down the deal that would have brought Chris Paul to Boston then Falk would surely kill any Sacramento deal.

As you say there will be other deals on the table for expirings, a low pick, and a marginal prospect so if this is the case which we have some evidence that it "could" be then Porter isn't going to end up in Sacramento. Porter is kinda unique in that he essentially plays one position even in todays positionless or swing-position game. He's a 3.....he cannot defend 2's or handle the wall well enough there and would need to be somewhere like Detroit next to Drummond to even be able to play rotation minutes at the 4. For this reason, the teams who could be interested in him are easy to identify. (I'm not in a place to put list together today)
 
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Cesar Crespo

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The Wiz are going to want more than a bench depth player and a pair of #2s. Despite the lost quarter season there are a lot of teams that could use a quality 3&D SF, and they’ll likely be offering more.
With his contract, I'm not sure the Wiz will get much more. Maybe some team thinks Porter can take another step forward, but with the upcoming FA class, I can't see many teams in on Porter. I think the most likely return for him is a bunch of expiring contracts.

What kind of return do you see the Wiz getting for Porter, given his contract? The last 2 years, he shot .516/.434/.832 and .503/.441/.828. If there are a few teams that think he is capable of holding those percentages with a bigger offensive load, they may get a slightly better return.

The Wiz will have to give up assets to move Wall imo. Beal will get a real return.
 

lovegtm

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If Philly weren't hoarding space for next year's FA class, that would be a perfect fit for Porter's contract and skillset. As it is, I think it's likely Philly strikes out in FA next year and makes Mook a big offer.

Honestly the more I think about it, if the Sixers don't think they can get Kawhi (massive longshot), whom should they be hoarding space for in lieu of Porter who's going to sign there?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also, when trading Wall, do other teams have to match 19 mil worth of contracts or 42? And how is John Wall only 28 years old?
 

lovegtm

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Also, when trading Wall, do other teams have to match 19 mil worth of contracts or 42? And how is John Wall only 28 years old?
He really is the exception that proves the rule wrt black not cracking.
 

amfox1

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With his contract, I'm not sure the Wiz will get much more. Maybe some team thinks Porter can take another step forward, but with the upcoming FA class, I can't see many teams in on Porter. I think the most likely return for him is a bunch of expiring contracts.

What kind of return do you see the Wiz getting for Porter, given his contract?
The two teams likely to be in the running are NO and SAC. I detailed a possible SAC deal above, which helps WAS to get below the cap sooner and signal a full reboot. NO is unlikely to offer much more, because they cannot risk trading significant current pieces or future (post-2019) draft picks due to the possibility of AD leaving. In fact, I have a hard time constructing a NO-WAS deal that works, salary-wise (Hill/Johnson/Diallo/F.Jackson?). No one is offering a lottery pick for Porter.
 

nighthob

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The two teams likely to be in the running are NO and SAC. I detailed a possible SAC deal above, which helps WAS to get below the cap sooner and signal a full reboot. NO is unlikely to offer much more, because they cannot risk trading significant current pieces or future (post-2019) draft picks due to the possibility of AD leaving. In fact, I have a hard time constructing a NO-WAS deal that works, salary-wise (Hill/Johnson/Diallo/F.Jackson?). No one is offering a lottery pick for Porter.
No one has to offer a lottery pick to beat an offer of an end of the rotation player and a pair of #2s. There are teams that have nigh on Billy Knighted themselves, like the Heat, that have to take whatever talent they can find (Miami probably makes a lot of sense as they could make a deal for Porter and Wall).

With his contract, I'm not sure the Wiz will get much more. Maybe some team thinks Porter can take another step forward, but with the upcoming FA class, I can't see many teams in on Porter. I think the most likely return for him is a bunch of expiring contracts.

What kind of return do you see the Wiz getting for Porter, given his contract? The last 2 years, he shot .516/.434/.832 and .503/.441/.828. If there are a few teams that think he is capable of holding those percentages with a bigger offensive load, they may get a slightly better return.

The Wiz will have to give up assets to move Wall imo. Beal will get a real return.
Miami will probably kick the tires on the DC firesale, as they can put together a package for both Wall & Porter.

Houston is in the Miami situation, they need 3&D guys around Harden & Paul and need to take flyers wherever they can find them in hopes of finding a third wheel.

The Pelicants are also desperate, and something like Hill/Randle/Ken Williams is at least as good as the aforementioned Sacramento proposal.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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If they could move Beal and Porter for some young assets, losing Wall for expiring contract would be a great move.

Start a full-on tank run for Zion.
If he can move Wall for expirings, Grunfeld should win executive of the year running away.
 

benhogan

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If he can move Wall for expirings, Grunfeld should win executive of the year running away.
Agreed. But there are some teams that will have cap space moving forward that just won't be able to draw talent to sign. For example, the Knicks may want John Wall's bag of tricks as some sort of selling point with their fans.

I wouldn't do it, but the Knicks may realize, through back channels, that Butler, Durant and Kyrie aren't walking through that door. Instead of looking like chumps next off-season, they panic and make a move now for an All-Star.