I’d like us to take a good long look at Familia. I’ve seen a lot of him since I live in the Mets TV market. Solid strikeout guy, walk rate is middle of the road, and he keeps the ball in the yard. He loses the zone at times but he’s been a really good arm for a couple years now. He did miss a good chunk of time last year from a suspension and a blood clot in his shoulder.
The "plus" added to Devers would need to be a humongous plus. Jacob deGrom is unfreakingbelievable and has two more years of control left.
Tough one. I'm so bullish on Devers as being a GREAT hitter..... but yeah....
Anytime we talk trade possibilities in here, it's unlikely. This one too, of course. But I think it's a fair deal that makes sense for both teams given their needs. EdRo would be terrific in the NL and Devers is going to be a beast for a long time to come. Both very cost controlled. And if they get a solid relief prospect as well... that would be a nice haul. For the Mets, they're going to move Familia anyway, and Frazier is a spare part that's totally not needed for them, given where they're at. So it's basically DeGrom and half a Familia for Devers, EdRo, and Houck. For the Sox, yeah, losing Devers is huge, but again, Frazier can fill the gap adequately, Familia helps the bullpen, and DeGrom is an absolute stud.
Seems a little premature for a 23 year old with a career OPS of .809.
If he had the exit velocity, I'd agree with you. Even during that hot stretch, his exit velocity was around 89.6 mph. It's since slid back down to 88.1 mph. (MLB average is 88.7).
Ya if he or Syndergaard were on any other team (other than Baltimore) I would be petrified of what the Yankees could package for him. That said - they could still blow away any other offers, so the Mets ought to at least listen.
I think he is just finding his middle. His overall numbers are still All-Star like.
Adding to the other comments, Statcast loves him. He's running a .366 wOBA right now, but a .374 xwOBA. He's pretty fast, doesn't hit a ton of ground balls, and is rarely shifted (14.2% of PAs), so he's not likely to perennially underperform on batted balls.
I agree, he has a ton of value. I think it's just longstanding strategy for Red Sox front offices to trade for pitching, since we can more likely sign comparable hitters than pitchers in free agency.
Exit velocity is nice, but it is certainly not the end-all. Hell, Beni has a higher exit velocity than Jose Altuve and Kris Bryant this season. Guys like Jose Ramirez last year had lower exit velocity than Beni does this year...so therefore, his 2017 power surge was a fluke, right? Nope...Jose Ramirez increased his exit velocity substantially in 2018 and his power bumped up even more. Sub-25 year old hitters on the upswing are a dangerous breed to make assumptions about.
Fair deal? In a vacuum, sure. In reality, I'm not so sure about that. Yes, it makes the team better on paper for the short term, but is it an improvement that is unquestionably necessary? I'm not sure starting pitcher is a need right now (even if DeGrom is a stud). Nor is 3B (where I think Devers -> Frazier is a downgrade). So the only need fulfilled is the addition of another quality bullpen arm but Familia doesn't exactly fit their true need, which is a LHRP. This is a move the pre-2004 Red Sox would have to make. I'm not sure it's something the 2018 Red Sox have to do.
Stupid. They've gotten this far with Brock Holt and the corpse of Eduardo Nunez holding down 2B, with Lin and Phillips in Pawtucket as backup, they can go the whole season without adding another. No sense in throwing more money and prospects at the problem unless a couple of those guys go the way of Pedroia and get injured.
Chatham is one of the few positional guys who is showing something this year in the minors. They will need good cheap infielders at some point. I wouldn't do that.
May as well mortgage the future. What could go wrong?!?
I can’t shake the notion that Gennett’s interchangeable with Holt, but he’s got a .382 OBA and 37 home runs since June 6 of last year (715 PA). I don’t think that trade will happen.
Agreed, which is why I'd like to see what he can do here since he was a high draft pick and is starting to perform. If it were for a legit long term need, then sure. But not for Gennett.
I agree that Benintendi is not "a star in the making". He's a star right now.
He's 23 and in single A. Are we going to give him MLB plate appearances by 2019? Probably not, right?
In an event the internal take on Pedroia atm has him being a lost cause for 2018, it definitely falls within DD's own recently stated trying the world series here criteria imo.
You speak of 3b as if I'm trying to fix it with Frazier. No. That's a sacrifice on the Red Sox' part in order to get deGrom. The Mets would be the ones improving dramatically at 3b.
And a cold streak is more indicative of true talent level than a hot streak...why? Because you believe so?
That's not what I was getting at at all. I understand that you want to downgrade 3B to upgrade the rotation. My point was that the rotation isn't in a state where such a sacrifice is really necessary. Exchanging Devers for Frazier is the kind of move you make to add DeGrom to the 2015 version of the Red Sox rotation, not the 2018 version.
His lack of plate discipline is one of the keys to his current cold streak. Once he gets it back he will be fine. And I don't get the over emphasis on exit velocity.
I'm 95% with you - including the 2004 vs. making the trade this season analogy.
Here’s a data set from 2015. (Benny’s at 88.2 mph on the season.)
I’d imagine they would just hand 3rd to some combination of Phillips/Nunez before taking back Frazier. I don’t think Devers would get moved, but DD did go out and sign an emergency 3b option in Phillips. I’d have to think really hard on DeGrom.
Please don't get me wrong. In a perfect world, I'd love for the Sox to have DeGrom for at least the next 18 months. But not at the price of Devers, and certainly not with the payroll situation being what it is. Yes, he replaces Pomeranz in 2019, but not at much savings plus they'd be paying more for a 3B too.
It's very similar to the Moncada & Kopech for Sale trade except I think Moncada was the second coming of babe ruth as a prospect.
Given that the starting pitching has completely crapped its collective pants in the playoffs two years in a row, and deGrom has done well in the playoffs, and is a total stud otherwise, I don't see him as just adding a few gallons of gas to the tank. I consider that to be a substantial and game changing upgrade and not just for one year but for several.
this isn't really on-topic, but, given this data, isn't the distribution of a player's batted ball exit velocity more important than the average exit velocity? averages can be deceiving. though, for what it's worth, beni is 105th in barrels per batted ball event, which is pretty middling.
DeGrom has all of four post-season starts...three good, one not so great. 25 total innings. Hardly the sample size that guarantees he will be a significantly better bet in the Red Sox October rotation than what they already have. Of course he's an asset that can help them if money is no object, but that's not the reality of the situation. Acquiring him and creating a hole at 3B at the same time adds significant future salary to an already bloated payroll. The additional cost of the deal might wind up being losing Chris Sale...someone younger, more accomplished, and arguably better than deGrom.
Through the mouth, shallow, and as if he's overly exerted himself? Don't worry yourself. That's just how mfy fans breathe...
