The 2018 NBA Draft

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

BigMike said:
Man, I hate that deal for the Hawks, There is just a whole lot of not much there. Sure it makes Atlanta better in 2022 most likely, but this is a star driven league, and a very low chance any of those guys are ever a star in the league. Honestly good chance that Rozier is the best player in that package, and I still think he's a better fit as a 6th man.

I wouldn’t do it if I were them but they’d be getting their PG, a 2017 top 6 pick, a near surefire lotto pick in Sac, and a potential lotto pick in Memphis. The real problem for me is the #1 protection on the Sac pick. That would be enough to scare me off if I’m the Hawks but it’s still only a 10-14% chance if they finish as a bottom 5 team.

The logic for the trade is you start building around Collins, Rozier, and Isaac knowing you’ll stink in 2019. Then, in 2019 you have your own high lotto pick, another likely high lotto pick in Sac, and a potential late lotto pick in Memphis along with cap space to sign a max guy.

Really is too bad that Ainge couldn’t get Colangelo to drop the #1 protection. But since he couldn’t, he really can’t deal the pick and get full value until May 2019.

Royal Reader · Jun 21, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
I wouldn’t do it if I were them but they’d be getting their PG, a 2017 top 6 pick, a near surefire lotto pick in Sac, and a potential lotto pick in Memphis. The real problem for me is the #1 protection on the Sac pick. That would be enough to scare me off if I’m the Hawks but it’s still only a 10-14% chance if they finish as a bottom 5 team.

The logic for the trade is you start building around Collins, Rozier, and Isaac knowing you’ll stink in 2019. Then, in 2019 you have your own high lotto pick, another likely high lotto pick in Sac, and a potential late lotto pick in Memphis along with cap space to sign a max guy.

Really is too bad that Ainge couldn’t get Colangelo to drop the #1 protection. But since he couldn’t, he really can’t deal the pick and get full value until May 2019.

Sac finished seventh this year, should add someone pretty good, and will have no incentive to tank hard. Just as we spent a lot of time talking about the Laker pick's upside protection and it missed low by a long way, I think the bigger risk on the pick is it dropping to late lottery. Even if they are still the Kings. Remember, the Kings have never drafted number one despite being really bad for a long time.

I agree that Atlanta needs to be star-hunting.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

Royal Reader said:
Sac finished seventh this year, should add someone pretty good, and will have no incentive to tank hard. Just as we spent a lot of time talking about the Laker pick's upside protection and it missed low by a long way, I think the bigger risk on the pick is it dropping to late lottery. Even if they are still the Kings. Remember, the Kings have never drafted number one despite being really bad for a long time.

I agree that Atlanta needs to be star-hunting.

They were 2-3 games from finishing in the bottom 5 though. Here are their picks over the last 10 years:

2
5
8
6
8
7
5
7
5
4

I see no reason to believe that trend will not continue. This is an awful, awful basketball team and adding a guy like Bagley won’t move the needle at all for me.

With that said, if you trade a #3 pick in a good draft, you need more of a sure thing, which is why Atlanta won’t be dealing their pick for the Ainge war chest.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 21, 2018

Jared Weiss says the Celtics are trying to get to the top 4 by floating the Kings and Clippers picks out. He adds that a deal with Memphis would have to include a 3rd team to take on Chandler Parsons.

Koji’s Slider · Jun 21, 2018

RedOctober3829 said:
Jared Weiss says the Celtics are trying to get to the top 4 by floating the Kings and Clippers picks out. He adds that a deal with Memphis would have to include a 3rd team to take on Chandler Parsons.

4th pick +Jaylen for Kawhi?

Devizier · Jun 21, 2018

Koji’s Slider said:
4th pick +Jaylen for Kawhi?

.. No?

Conigliaro's Potential · Jun 21, 2018

It bemuses me to see how much the NBA Draft, which is really supposed to be about the worst teams in the league and how they might improve (or occasionally how they screwed themselves by trading great picks to much better teams), has become another exercise in worshiping the super-teams or figuring out how to form more of them. I know that's perfectly natural in a Celtics forum - although really, I want my Hawks to get the best player available in a very good draft (Doncic!) and not Terry Freaking Rozier - but when the top two stories on http://www.espn.com/nba/ right now are "Should Celtics put Jaylen Brown in Kawhi trade?" and "Seven best Kawhi trades we'd like to see", and so much of the chatter is about which good team can steal the Memphis pick at #4, I want to crawl back into my cave and forget the NBA exists.

GreyisGone · Jun 21, 2018

Koji’s Slider said:
4th pick +Jaylen for Kawhi?

Each of those pieces is likely better than what he Spurs end up with

Ed Hillel · Jun 21, 2018

Giving up all the picks for Mo Bamba makes be sufficiently queasy yet excited enough that I think it’s probably a fair deal on balance.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

Ed Hillel said:
Giving up all the picks for Mo Bamba makes be sufficiently queasy yet excited enough that I think it’s probably a fair deal on balance.

Does it?

Sac should be somewhere in the 4-8 range in a weaker draft. Memphis is probably a late lotto/mid round pick. And Clips pick may not even happen. If it does, it’s a pick in the teens.

Turning that into Mo Bamba would be a great outcome in my mind.

Red Averages · Jun 21, 2018

Can we just agree that after nothing happens tonight everyone can take a deep breathe and realize we're set up extremely well over the next 5+ years, instead of yelling about not getting something done?

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

Red Averages said:
Can we just agree that after nothing happens tonight everyone can take a deep breathe and realize we're set up extremely well over the next 5+ years, instead of yelling about not getting something done?

Huh? I think the only hyperventilating will occur if the Celtics DO make a major deal because it will either mean Jaylen is gone or all the picks. We have the 27th pick. Everybody knows a major move is unlikely.

bsj · Jun 21, 2018

I am cool with no deal or with the right deal

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jun 21, 2018

bsj said:
I am cool with no deal or with the right deal

So to clarify, you're not cool with a shitty deal?

JCizzle · Jun 21, 2018

I'd prefer to consolidate picks and trade up if possible, but it would also be fun to nab Grayson and pair him with Smart. The meltdowns playing against those two together would be incredible.

Reverend · Jun 21, 2018

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
So to clarify, you're not cool with a shitty deal?

That’s about the level of analysis of Danny Ainge I’m comfortable with.

I’m just to here to watch the man work.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

JCizzle said:
I'd prefer to consolidate picks and trade up if possible, but it would also be fun to nab Grayson and pair him with Smart. The meltdowns playing against those two together would be incredible.

The Smartass unit?

bsj · Jun 21, 2018

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
So to clarify, you're not cool with a shitty deal?

I mean i get it’s pretty fundamental. I don’t want a deal that guts us just to have a better chance for one or 2 years. If we can find a way to keep brown but get Leonard for picks as and TR, obv on board. But I am really leery about giving up JB for a guy who will bolt to LA in a year.

So make a good deal or sit tight and keep
Building depth. We focus on super teams but the way the best of the best separate is not the 1-3 guys but the 4-6 guys IMO

finnVT · Jun 21, 2018

bsj said:
I mean i get it’s pretty fundamental. I don’t want a deal that guts us just to have a better chance for one or 2 years. If we can find a way to keep brown but get Leonard for picks as and TR, obv on board. But I am really leery about giving up JB for a guy who will bolt to LA in a year.

So make a good deal or sit tight and keep
Building depth. We focus on super teams but the way the best of the best separate is not the 1-3 guys but the 4-6 guys IMO

It seems obvious, but yeah, this is where I am too. If Ainge can somehow turn a combination of Rozier (or Smart) and any of the current/future picks into any of Kawhi/Bamba/Doncic/other high pick that they like, I'd consider it a coup. I'm not actually completely opposed to moving Jaylen, but you'd really have to be blown away. He fits really well with what Ainge/Stevens want to do, and will be an important part of what should be a really exciting team next year.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

finnVT said:
It seems obvious, but yeah, this is where I am too. If Ainge can somehow turn a combination of Rozier (or Smart) and any of the current/future picks into any of Kawhi/Bamba/Doncic/other high pick that they like, I'd consider it a coup. I'm not actually completely opposed to moving Jaylen, but you'd really have to be blown away. He fits really well with what Ainge/Stevens want to do, and will be an important part of what should be a really exciting team next year.

I think that's exactly what Ainge is trying to do. When you have a rotation of Horford/Tatum/Hayward/Brown/Irving, you're all set from a talent standpoint (or more than all set). So, it makes sense to see if you can package your remaining assets to add one more cheap building block piece like a Bamba or Doncic that can help next year off the bench and be a future starter.

I remain fixated on Bamba. He is already an impact defender/rebounder, which we need, and we have the luxury to be patient with his offense. Others disagree but I would empty the war chest of picks for him. I think he's exactly what this team needs playing in a division with Embiid for the next decade and would love to see a very poor man's Russell/Chamberlain dynamic play out.

CSteinhardt · Jun 21, 2018

I'm entirely convinced by Doncic, and he's the guy I would be all in on. On the other hand, I also liked Darko, so I might not be the best judge of talent...

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
When did Jaylen go on the trading block? I feel this is all fake news and the only pieces in play are Morris, Rozier and the Sacramento pick. The latest is finding a 3rd team to take on Parsons contract for 4 so maybe a lesser 1st from our stockpile is needed to swallow that pill.

I don't think Jaylen is on the trading block. I'm just skeptical that we can move up to 3 or 4 this year without him being included. There's too much volatility in the Celtics' picks to get a surefire top 4 pick in a good draft even if Ainge wanted to go "all in".

CSteinhardt · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
When did Jaylen go on the trading block? I feel this is all fake news and the only pieces in play are Morris, Rozier and the Sacramento pick. The latest is finding a 3rd team to take on Parsons contract for 4 so maybe a lesser 1st from our stockpile is needed to swallow that pill.

Is the 4th pick this year better than what we expect from the Sacramento pick plus the value of Rozier? I see a dropoff after the top three in this draft. Since the SAC pick isn't that likely to be 4th or higher anyway, and has top 1 protection, I'd still trade it for the #4 pick this year (normally moving up a year is good as well, but with our tax situation it might actually be better to spread out potential extensions for our high lottery picks a bit more). But Rozier is a really useful player, and I don't think Rozier plus the Kings pick makes sense unless one of the top three drops.

JCizzle · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
When did Jaylen go on the trading block? I feel this is all fake news and the only pieces in play are Morris, Rozier and the Sacramento pick. The latest is finding a 3rd team to take on Parsons contract for 4 so maybe a lesser 1st from our stockpile is needed to swallow that pill.

I feel like he kinda gets lost in the shuffle for some reason. I know Tatum was great in the playoffs and especially in Game 7 (whereas JB was brutal in that game), but JB was probably our best player (or second best behind Al) until he got hurt and probably rushed himself back. He shot ~40% from 3 over the entire playoffs. As a 21 year old. I think he's about as untouchable as you can get. If trading Tatum isn't even a question, then I don't think trading Jaylen is a question either.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

JCizzle said:
I feel like he kinda gets lost in the shuffle for some reason. I know Tatum was great in the playoffs and especially in Game 7 (whereas JB was brutal in that game), but JB was probably our best player (or second best behind Al) until he got hurt and probably rushed himself back. He shot ~40% from 3 over the entire playoffs. As a 21 year old. I think he's about as untouchable as you can get. If trading Tatum isn't even a question, then I don't think trading Jaylen is a question either.

I think people are missing the point. Nobody wants to trade Jaylen. But if you want to get into the top 3-4 this year, you probably have to. Rozier/Morris/Sac/Mem won't get it done, which is why Ainge is likely to stay put tonight despite probably liking Doncic and Bamba a good deal.

finnVT · Jun 21, 2018

CSteinhardt said:
Is the 4th pick this year better than what we expect from the Sacramento pick plus the value of Rozier? I see a dropoff after the top three in this draft. Since the SAC pick isn't that likely to be 4th or higher anyway, and has top 1 protection, I'd still trade it for the #4 pick this year (normally moving up a year is good as well, but with our tax situation it might actually be better to spread out potential extensions for our high lottery picks a bit more). But Rozier is a really useful player, and I don't think Rozier plus the Kings pick makes sense unless one of the top three drops.

From the way people talk about the two draft classes, it feels like #4 this year might be better than #1 next year, not even considering the time difference. But that could, of course, change a lot over the next year.

BTW, I don't see a drop-off after 3 in this draft, with Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Bamba and maybe Jackson in a clear top tier.

DJnVa · Jun 21, 2018

CSteinhardt said:
Is the 4th pick this year better than what we expect from the Sacramento pick plus the value of Rozier? I see a dropoff after the top three in this draft.

See that depends--if Ainge likes Bamba and he's there at 4 then he might bite.

DJnVa · Jun 21, 2018

I need some crazy rumors to get through the work day. Let's go NBA twitter.

BigMike · Jun 21, 2018

CSteinhardt said:
Is the 4th pick this year better than what we expect from the Sacramento pick plus the value of Rozier? I see a dropoff after the top three in this draft. Since the SAC pick isn't that likely to be 4th or higher anyway, and has top 1 protection, I'd still trade it for the #4 pick this year (normally moving up a year is good as well, but with our tax situation it might actually be better to spread out potential extensions for our high lottery picks a bit more). But Rozier is a really useful player, and I don't think Rozier plus the Kings pick makes sense unless one of the top three drops.

I'm not convinced there is a dropoff at 3, as I think you can make an argument for 6-8 guys being in the top 3. I know some people LOVE Bagley. I am listening to Max Kellerman talk about how Carter is #1 and Jackson is #2. Porter has injury concerns, but was considered 1 of the group before the injury.

Ultimately I guess it boils down to how you view Rozier. Personally I think he is best suited as a 6th man, and will never be a good starting PG in the league, maybe he will be middle tier, but what is that. Obviously some people view him as a legit starter and wort a top 10 pick this year .

Personally if I am a GM, I would't give up any pick in the top 12 this year for the Sacramento pick next year, and maybe more than that. Not just because of the giving up a year, or the risk Sacremento could get #1 or drop down to #7 again. Right now I think the #3 guy in next year draft wouldn't be a top 10-15 guy in this years draft. Obviously things can change, but as of today the 2019 draft looks extremely weak

Red Averages · Jun 21, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
I think people are missing the point. Nobody wants to trade Jaylen. But if you want to get into the top 3-4 this year, you probably have to. Rozier/Morris/Sac/Mem won't get it done, which is why Ainge is likely to stay put tonight despite probably liking Doncic and Bamba a good deal.

I think you have said this a few times, but it's hard to get actual proof that it's true. The package you describe is a monster haul. One could make the case that Rozier's value is in line with a high lotto pick first (7-13 area), as we've touched on previously with comps from Holliday. Sac / Mem picks are both highly valuable. To give up a young starter with proven scoring talent on a contending team, plus two high first rounders in future drafts, plus Morris. That's is quite the haul for a team that needs multiple years to acquire top talent, not one shot (#4 pick). It's hard to identify what other teams can offer. If I'm the Hawks/Memphis I would seriously consider Rozier + Sac Pick. But I'm biased.

BigMike · Jun 21, 2018

finnVT said:
From the way people talk about the two draft classes, it feels like #4 this year might be better than #1 next year, not even considering the time difference. But that could, of course, change a lot over the next year.

BTW, I don't see a drop-off after 3 in this draft, with Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Bamba and maybe Jackson in a clear top tier.

I think this is true all the way down to Wendell Carter, who had he pulled out of the draft would be the overwhelming favorite to go #1 next year

Red Averages · Jun 21, 2018

JCizzle said:
I feel like he kinda gets lost in the shuffle for some reason. I know Tatum was great in the playoffs and especially in Game 7 (whereas JB was brutal in that game), but JB was probably our best player (or second best behind Al) until he got hurt and probably rushed himself back. He shot ~40% from 3 over the entire playoffs. As a 21 year old. I think he's about as untouchable as you can get. If trading Tatum isn't even a question, then I don't think trading Jaylen is a question either.

Well said. Plus the salary implications, and ability to fit with the current roster construction, he has massive value.

Was (Not Wasdin) · Jun 21, 2018

Ainge will kick the tires on everything, but I think in the end a move into the top 4 or 5 for Bamba or Doncic will be too expensive for his tastes. I would not be surprised if he makes a move into the mid-teens to grab Robert Williams. I think he wants a big man out of this draft to pair with Brown and Tatum down the road for the 2022 NBA champs.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

Red Averages said:
I think you have said this a few times, but it's hard to get actual proof that it's true. The package you describe is a monster haul. One could make the case that Rozier's value is in line with a high lotto pick first (7-13 area), as we've touched on previously with comps from Holliday. Sac / Mem picks are both highly valuable. To give up a young starter with proven scoring talent on a contending team, plus two high first rounders in future drafts, plus Morris. That's is quite the haul for a team that needs multiple years to acquire top talent, not one shot (#4 pick). It's hard to identify what other teams can offer. If I'm the Hawks/Memphis I would seriously consider Rozier + Sac Pick. But I'm biased.

Obviously my opinion but I still see too much volatility in the picks. If the Sac pick were unencumbered, I might agree. But there is a non-zero chance of it being somewhere in the 20s. There's also a chance it could fall in the 6-10 range based on their recent history. And Memphis could convey this year in the 10-15 range if Gasol/Conley stay healthy.

If I'm Atlanta, I'm not trading #3 for a soon-to-be expensive Rozier and 2 picks whose value is too uncertain. Now, Memphis at #4 could be a different story since their pick that we own is more valuable to them than to anyone else but that is countered by them having no use for Rozier.

I just don't see it being enough once you factor in the trade lust of other more desperate teams.

Minneapolis Millers · Jun 21, 2018

I think it's highly unlikely that Ainge trades Brown, but likely that Rozier is on the table. So whether we cut a deal will depend on Ainge (1) finding another team that sees Rozier as a key rebuilding piece for them, and (2) being able to deal quantity for quality.

Neither is a great bet, so I'm not holding my breath.

I do otherwise hope they get an interesting rotational guy at #27. Two guys I like who are projected as late first/2d rounders are Mo Wagner (Olynyk-like) and Jevon Carter (Smart/Rozier hybrid?)

JCizzle · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
We can't confuse "better" with "greater value".......the #4 carries much greater value than next years pick but is offset by the Parsons contract attached to it.

I don't see where there is a dropoff after the Top-3 at all. I expect Bamba to be Ainge's target here as he fits a similar profile to the type of player Brad/Ainge gravitates toward and he should be there.

I'm now in total agreement with you on Bamba, or even Carter, if we trade up. Their fit in the timeline is much better than Doncic. We're going to need to replace Horford before Kyrie and Danny has shown an ability to find point guards later in the draft. Bamba would be an immediate impact player defensively and we wouldnt need him to contribute much offensively (with Kyrie, Hayward, JB and JT) for a couple of years, which he probably needs. Watching Bamba battle Embiid for the next decade would be awesome.

A big man rotation of Horford/Baynes/Theis/Bamba gives you a bit of everything.

DJnVa · Jun 21, 2018

Was (Not Wasdin) said:
I would not be surprised if he makes a move into the mid-teens to grab Robert Williams. I think he wants a big man out of this draft to pair with Brown and Tatum down the road for the 2022 NBA champs.

Nice scouting video of Williams:

the moops · Jun 21, 2018

Every future draft pick traded has uncertainty around it, yet we see future firsts traded all the time. If I am a team that is years away from contending, I think I wouldn't hesitate to trade a pick in the 4-6 range + salary relief for SAC + MEM + Rozier

finnVT · Jun 21, 2018

I do wonder if there's a deal to be made with MEM by including DAL to take Parsons' salary. Something like BOS gets #5, Wesley Matthews; DAL gets #4, Smart (sign+trade), Parsons, #27; MEM gets SAC pick (becomes MEM if SAC ends up #1), Rozier, LAC pick, Yabu. DAL moves up a spot and adds Smart and a pick, for the cost of eating Parsons' salary. MEM gets a high pick and Rozier and sheds $50mil. BOS gets into the top 5 and picks up a replacement guard with a 1-year commitment to offset losing Smart/Rozier. You give up resigning Baynes in this case if you want to try to get under the lux tax threshold (and even then it's tough).

Hagios · Jun 21, 2018

CSteinhardt said:
I'm entirely convinced by Doncic, and he's the guy I would be all in on. On the other hand, I also liked Darko, so I might not be the best judge of talent...

So did I. It was easy to fall for the Chad Ford draft hype for Darko:

The truth is, we still don't know what James is. He dominates high school competition like few ever have. But he's playing against boys every night. Kwame Brown was beating the stuffing out of boys like that a few years ago.

Milicic smiles even wider as I struggle to explain LeBron to him. He is rubbing a sore calf muscle. He's just hours removed from banging in the low post against a bigger, stronger 28-year-old defender.

"I play against men," he says matter of factly.

Good times.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

the moops said:
Every future draft pick traded has uncertainty around it, yet we see future firsts traded all the time. If I am a team that is years away from contending, I think I wouldn't hesitate to trade a pick in the 4-6 range + salary relief for SAC + MEM + Rozier

Can you name one example of a top 5 pick being traded before/during the draft for a return that was primarily future picks? Future picks are traded all the time but generally not for current top 5 draft picks unless I'm just blanking on some obvious comparable deals.

cheech13 · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
Morris, Rozier and the Sac pick for the #3 and the final two years of Miles Plumlee's $12m per to replace Baynes. Who says no?

The Hawks say no. Why in the world would they do this? They spent an entire year tearing down the organization top to bottom and tanking with the goal of getting one blue chip asset (a top 3 pick). Now you want them to delay that another year, for what is likely a worse pick in a worst draft, and for their trouble they get a couple of bench guys that are meaningless to them in the short- and long-term?

I get it. I come up with bad trade ideas. We all come up with terrible trade ideas, actually. But these suggested deals where bad teams stay bad just to help out good teams are just particularly egregious.

cheech13 · Jun 21, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
Can you name one example of a top 5 pick being traded before/during the draft for a return that was primarily future picks? Future picks are traded all the time but generally not for current top 5 draft picks unless I'm just blanking on some obvious comparable deals.

It's not a perfect example, but last year the Celtics traded down two slots in a draft and got back an almost guaranteed future lottery pick for their trouble. I can't think of any examples of a team trading out of the lottery solely for future draft considerations.

BigSoxFan · Jun 21, 2018

cheech13 said:
It's not a perfect example, but last year the Celtics traded down two slots in a draft and got back an almost guaranteed future lottery pick for their trouble. I can't think of any examples of a team trading out of the lottery solely for future draft considerations.

I don’t think it ever happens. Top picks are generally exchanged for other lotto picks in that draft plus future considerations or for established players. I don’t think there’s any chance Ainge could get Atlanta to bite without Jaylen. Memphis might be a different story given our pick and their desire to shed Parsons’ salary but it would require some creativity and a 3rd team to play ball.

moondog80 · Jun 21, 2018

Memphis' pick is a sunk cost from their perspective; if they value it more because it was once their own, they are stupid and we should exploit them. But I doubt they do.

jmm57 · Jun 21, 2018

I would think that Memphis would and probably should place more value on their own pick because they have some control over where it ends up. Makes it a whole lot easier to start their own “Process “ if they have their pick. Without the pick they might as well try adding to Gasol/Conley and see if they can make a run at the 8 seed or something.

moondog80 · Jun 21, 2018

jmm57 said:
I would think that Memphis would and probably should place more value on their own pick because they have some control over where it ends up.

This is a good point.

GoDa · Jun 21, 2018

Could the C's work a deal for the Memphis pick (retaining Jaylen and some draft assets), then swap it for the Atlanta pick?

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