Arsenal 2017-18: Au Revoir, Arsene

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The bigger problem for Arsenal is that they have shown no strategic vision over the last few windows. So they sort of need a rebuild, but they also have several star players in their late primes, e.g. Ozil (29, assuming they keep him), Mkhtaryan (29) and Aubameyang (28). And they don't have any pieces in the 22-24 range who project to be big stars entering their primes in 2-3 seasons, besides maybe Bellerin (who may not stick around). The squad has been built to win now. It's possible a new manager, with one or two additions, could do a quick turnaround next season. Where that leaves Arsenal in two years though, as their big-money stars age, is a big question.

There's also the issue with top clubs that there's a big feedback loop. It's hard to sign great players if you're not in the Champions League, and hard to get back into the CL without great players. City and Chelsea can do it, but they can overpay in wages if they need to, can Arsenal do that? If Arsenal have a couple of seasons where they finish in midtable, will they still able to get Aubamayengs and Ozils to come play for them? They already lost Sanchez.
I think this is basically right. They've been unable or incapable of really implementing a coherent plan for the last few seasons due to the Wenger situation and the clashing time horizons it involved (him clearly having incentives to win now, despite that looking more and more unlikely over time).

Its not an insurmountable problem going forward, but definitely one that needs to be handled well (which it might not be). As you note, in football it just doesn't pay to go into a complete rebuild. So the answer is really to build a team that relies upon a few veterans to remain competitive - Ozil, Auba, Mkhitaryan, Lacazette, Koscielny, Monreal - while making a concerted effort to buy and integrate a new core of younger players and improve upon some areas (CM, CB, and some more dynamic wing players) that have become weaknesses. The best thing they have in their favor in this regard is that all the veteran players just mentioned either signed new deals recently - knowing that Wenger would likely not be around for most of their contracts and probably also realizing that this team wasn't going to win the Champions League or anything in the next couple seasons - or, in the case of the defenders, are longtime club servants probably OK with sticking around. But you need to bring in the right new manager who will get along with those players and keep them on board. And you need to do a good job with recruitment and player development if you actually want to get better. Easier said than done for sure.

Its unclear if he would really leave Juve but I've heard some talk recently about Allegri wanting a new challenge (and a much richer contract) and I think he would be an excellent choice if truly available.
 

lars10

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Liverpool seemed to manage this just fine under Klopp, no? Arsenal is still a really, really big club in the richest league in the world, and therefore an attractive destination even without Champions League football; with the right manager in place, I'm not worried about this.

Also, it's not so much about signing already great players - it's about signing good players and turning them into great players. Wenger used to do that routinely but of late seems to have started signing borderline great players and turning them into good players. Arsenal needs a manager capable of developing players again.
Is the guy from Borussia Dortmund gonna stick around? Because the talent he’s recruited over the years is really impressive.. also it seems Arsenal will be changing their negotiating as well which should also help things.

The main thing I expect to see is a manager that can develop young players. Over the years Wenger has seemed to have lost that ability.
 

lars10

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I think this is basically right. They've been unable or incapable of really implementing a coherent plan for the last few seasons due to the Wenger situation and the clashing time horizons it involved (him clearly having incentives to win now, despite that looking more and more unlikely over time).

Its not an insurmountable problem going forward, but definitely one that needs to be handled well (which it might not be). As you note, in football it just doesn't pay to go into a complete rebuild. So the answer is really to build a team that relies upon a few veterans to remain competitive - Ozil, Auba, Mkhitaryan, Lacazette, Koscielny, Monreal - while making a concerted effort to buy and integrate a new core of younger players and improve upon some areas (CM, CB, and some more dynamic wing players) that have become weaknesses. The best thing they have in their favor in this regard is that all the veteran players just mentioned either signed new deals recently - knowing that Wenger would likely not be around for most of their contracts and probably also realizing that this team wasn't going to win the Champions League or anything in the next couple seasons - or, in the case of the defenders, are longtime club servants probably OK with sticking around. But you need to bring in the right new manager who will get along with those players and keep them on board. And you need to do a good job with recruitment and player development if you actually want to get better. Easier said than done for sure.

Its unclear if he would really leave Juve but I've heard some talk recently about Allegri wanting a new challenge (and a much richer contract) and I think he would be an excellent choice if truly available.
There are a few notable names you left out.. but I’d be happy to see Ramsey and wilshere out. Ramsey scores but I think he also messes up positioning and the flow of the ball more than he should and I don’t ever expect Jack to not be injured. I think El Neny may be worth keeping.. maybe Xhaka as well.

What would be nice is a manager that plays the best lineup.. and not constantly march out his favorite players time and again even if they’re consistently not performing.
 

JimBoSox9

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I push back on the burying of Ramsey - obviously fitness is an ongoing concern with him, but when on the pitch he's provided by far the best two-way play of any midfielder (for the bulk of the season, Elneny's defensive reliability was a blessing, but was devoutly conservative going forward. The worst defensive breakdowns in the midfield have featured Xhaka and Wilshire. Until and unless prime Santi Cazorla walks through that door, I'm comfortable with Ramsey as the first-team 8 for the remainder of what we'll call the Ozil-Auba transitional window.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Well this is starting pretty well so far - multiple very good chances created, Atleti down to 10 men within 10 minutes, and Simeone sent to the stands as well.

Now we actually have to score goals.
 

mikeford

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Seems like they won't be signing even 1 CB this summer if the rumours from the Telegraph and others that the new manager is being given a budget of 50m are true.

Granit Xhaka is wearing the armband today against Manchester United and I'm not sure I've ever been more ashamed to be an Arsenal fan.
 

fletcherpost

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So, at least we now know...no champions league next season. I wonder how this affects the managerial recruitment process and the bargaining any 1st choice manager has pre contract signing.

I think whoever comes in its for a minimum 3 years, regardless of contract. I can't see any manager being sacked purely cos they didn't get top 4 next season. The job is too big, the overhaul, the clear out, the new way of doing things. It's a monstrous task. For anyone who comes in. But, it's a great project if the board give their backing, if the manager is somewhat simpatico with the board. (Kinda like Klopp at Liverpool.)

Arsenal are a huge club, never forget that. Huge stadium, amazing fans...a world wide brand. There's not many teams that can win everything, Arsenal could win it all, they are that big a club. But they have to do it right.

I'm not a fan, but I've missed Arsenal contending...I hate looking at the team thinking, this is a subpar squad more by design than accident.
 

JimBoSox9

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Yeah I'm SOOOO happy we got embarrassed in Europe for the 22nd year in a row.

Just downright giddy.

You got it.
Please. You're to the sports teams you support as Hank Scorpio is to mass shootings perpetrated by persons of non-caucasian coloring. You're sad, but kinda happy that you're sad.
 

InstaFace

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JBS, even if I agree with your point in principle, that's a pretty obnoxious analogy to be drawing. Were there no other examples to be had that didn't involve a comparison to mass murder?
 

blueline

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So, at least we now know...no champions league next season. I wonder how this affects the managerial recruitment process and the bargaining any 1st choice manager has pre contract signing.

I think whoever comes in its for a minimum 3 years, regardless of contract. I can't see any manager being sacked purely cos they didn't get top 4 next season. The job is too big, the overhaul, the clear out, the new way of doing things. It's a monstrous task. For anyone who comes in. But, it's a great project if the board give their backing, if the manager is somewhat simpatico with the board. (Kinda like Klopp at Liverpool.)

Arsenal are a huge club, never forget that. Huge stadium, amazing fans...a world wide brand. There's not many teams that can win everything, Arsenal could win it all, they are that big a club. But they have to do it right.

I'm not a fan, but I've missed Arsenal contending...I hate looking at the team thinking, this is a subpar squad more by design than accident.
I think things are going to get worse before they get better. Arsene has left the club in really bad shape. He's spent a lot of money over the past few years with a high wage bill all for 6th place and a Europa League semi final appearance. Missing out on the Champions League for the 2nd year in a row is going to be a killer. Squad needs a GK, CB, winger, and maybe a CM. If rumors are to be believed only £50 million will be available for the next manager.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Allegri rumors all over the place now.

I'll believe it when I see it, but this would be a brilliant appointment. Great tactician, great motivator, rebuilt Conte's side at Juventus (except for the back three) and now close to winning four consecutive domestic doubles, which is a ridiculous achievement. Juventus had only won two domestic doubles in their entire (very storied) history before his arrival.
 

mikeford

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Allegri is the best case scenario, IMO. Next best probably Jardim. Than Nagelsmann. Then every other possibility. Then Brendan Rogers.

I'm so happy this horrible campaign is coming to a close tomorrow.
 

67YAZ

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Allegri and Jardim are great options. After 22 years of Wenger, the club needs a thorough re-tooling: scouting, analytics, coaching, medical, and so on. Certainly some areas need more work than others, but a new manager needs to spend time installing a new philosophy, if not new staff, in every office.

Allegri and Jardim have done this at big clubs, and actually Allegri has done it twice. The only caution on Allegri is that he only ever played or coached in Italy. It might take him a short time to adjust to the EPL. But other than that, Allegri’s ability to motivate, develop players, and employ flexible tactics all bode well for success at Arsenal.
 

mikeford

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In further news, it looks like virtually every assistant coach has been fired or reassigned to some other job.

Bould and Jens Lehmann have been asked to stay on and be a part of the new regime but that is basically it.
 

lars10

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Allegri is the best case scenario, IMO. Next best probably Jardim. Than Nagelsmann. Then every other possibility. Then Brendan Rogers.

I'm so happy this horrible campaign is coming to a close tomorrow.
This continues your streak of basically making zero positive comments re: Arsenal over the past two years.. especially after any wins.. like the last two weeks (or even any comments after Arsene actually retired after 20 years)...I almost quoted them all last week, but decided not to. Here’s hoping arsenal inspires some positive fandom next year.
 

mikeford

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Hey I'm pretty excited that something might be different next year!

If we hire Brendan Rogers, I might hang myself but til then... HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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One thing that’s been lost in all the Wenger leaving drama is that we signed a pretty amazing striker in the January window. Adjusting to the league and in a dysfunctional side, Auba still scoring for fun. I always knew he was a speed merchant but his movement in the box and striker’s instincts are totally top notch.
 

shaggydog2000

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One thing that’s been lost in all the Wenger leaving drama is that we signed a pretty amazing striker in the January window. Adjusting to the league and in a dysfunctional side, Auba still scoring for fun. I always knew he was a speed merchant but his movement in the box and striker’s instincts are totally top notch.
Auba is just great at finding the open space to receive the ball and getting it on net. With him, a healthy Lacazette, backed by Ozil, Mkhitaryan, Bellerin, and (probably) Ramsey, the offense should be there. I'm optimistic some of the more shaky defensive players could look a lot better in a different scheme. Xhaka and the center backs definitely got too stretched out too often and that was as much being put in a tough spot to recover from as it was poor ability to recover.
 

lars10

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Hey I'm pretty excited that something might be different next year!

If we hire Brendan Rogers, I might hang myself but til then... HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL
Well on this we wholly agree! I look forward to the new version of Arsenal next year.
 

lars10

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One thing that’s been lost in all the Wenger leaving drama is that we signed a pretty amazing striker in the January window. Adjusting to the league and in a dysfunctional side, Auba still scoring for fun. I always knew he was a speed merchant but his movement in the box and striker’s instincts are totally top notch.
I also think the talent scout and overall front office work they did will pay big dividends in the offseason.
 

mikeford

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PEA was honestly the fox in the box striker this team has needed for like... a decade?

He's scored on chances that would always go begging. The goal in the Huddersfield game was a perfect example. In past years we'd never have someone on the end of that cross. They'd either whiff the tap in or no one would make the run at all.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Arteta seems to be the favorite at this point.

I like the idea of a young manager with bold tactical ideas. But I’ve got no idea whether he truly fits that bill and I’m not sure how anybody really does given his total inexperience. I’d rather take a risk than play it safe but appointing someone who has literally never managed before is a pretty big risk.
 

67YAZ

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My read on an Arteta hire would be that Gazidis wants to put his stamp on the team. This has been Wenger’s organization through and through until Mislintat was hired. And with the reports of clearing out of the back room staff, we’re either seeing space being made for an established coach who wants to bring a significant number of his own people along...or Gazidis is going make hires to create an organization that the new manager will have to fit into. That’s not a criticism. We see a lot of the biggest clubs operate this way - Real, Barca, Chelsea, Bayern - places where the manager is supposed to meld into the organization, not come in and reshape it. Of course, ManU assumed Moyes could walk in and keep the Fergie culture going, which was a brutal mistake. Conversely, City clearly brought in Pep with the charge of rebuilding the football side of things from the ground up.

Since Arteta would be a first time manager with little coaching experience, it seems to me that Gazidis would have a much stronger hand in building out the staff around Arteta than say an established star like Allegri. That raises the question, does Gazidis have the vision and chops to pull this off?
 

mikeford

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Going with Arteta is a pretty huge risk considering how close Arsenal is to falling entirely out of European competition already.

I don't hate it but it does feel tremendously risky versus someone like Jardim or Allegri.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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My read on an Arteta hire would be that Gazidis wants to put his stamp on the team. This has been Wenger’s organization through and through until Mislintat was hired. And with the reports of clearing out of the back room staff, we’re either seeing space being made for an established coach who wants to bring a significant number of his own people along...or Gazidis is going make hires to create an organization that the new manager will have to fit into. That’s not a criticism. We see a lot of the biggest clubs operate this way - Real, Barca, Chelsea, Bayern - places where the manager is supposed to meld into the organization, not come in and reshape it. Of course, ManU assumed Moyes could walk in and keep the Fergie culture going, which was a brutal mistake. Conversely, City clearly brought in Pep with the charge of rebuilding the football side of things from the ground up.

Since Arteta would be a first time manager with little coaching experience, it seems to me that Gazidis would have a much stronger hand in building out the staff around Arteta than say an established star like Allegri. That raises the question, does Gazidis have the vision and chops to pull this off?
I think this take is really good. I like the other director level hires (Mislintat and Sanllehi) so Gazidis gets high marks so far. And I like the idea of building an organization that doesn’t depend so much on the manager. But the manager is still obviously a central piece, especially when you’re first trying to make this transition. And I dont know the answer to your last question.
 

67YAZ

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I think this take is really good. I like the other director level hires (Mislintat and Sanllehi) so Gazidis gets high marks so far. And I like the idea of building an organization that doesn’t depend so much on the manager. But the manager is still obviously a central piece, especially when you’re first trying to make this transition. And I dont know the answer to your last question.
Sorry, that was more of a rhetorical question. How many true organization builders are out there that are available in any sense? Roma just snatched up Monchi to play this role. So the only real answer is, we’ll see. Like you said, his first two hires have been excellent and the smooth, if belated, exiting of Wenger was no mean feat. Bodes well, but the manager is the first major test.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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BBC Sport reporting that Arsenal have selected Unai Emery from PSG as their next manager.

I know almost nothing about him. In his first year, he placed second in Ligue 1 and he won it with them this year. Won their CL group, which included Bayern only to get immediately knockde out by Real Madrid 2-5 aggregate. The previous year they finished second in their CL group (to Arsenal) before beating Barca 4-0 in the first game of the knockout match. Then in very Arsenal fashion they lost 6-1 in the second leg.
 

blueline

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Feels like this really came out of nowhere when Arteta was close. Reports that Arsenal were the ones that backed out suggest Gazidis got cold feet from a high risk/reward appointment. Think this could still work out though. Emery was really successful at Valencia/Sevilla with a limited budget. Hope the new structure Arsenal have put in place with Sanllehi and Mislintat will provide the support to recreate that. Based on what I've read he seems to favor an attacking style which is a positive.
 

67YAZ

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Here’s a good discussion of Emery’s time at PSG and it’s disappointments (relative to expectations):

https://www.getfootballnewsfrance.com/2018/feature-in-defence-of-unai-emery/

If Gazidis really is looking for a “head coach” more than a manager, then he has to think he can remake the kind of chemistry Emery had with Monchi. At Sevilla, Emery played a defensively stout 4-2-3-1 that counterattacked incisively. If Arsenal’s first move this summer is to buy Krychowiak, we’ll know that’s the direction they’re headed.

Edit: here’s a good deep dive on Emery’s tactics at Sevilla. It depicts the kind of modern high pressing scheme that would fit very well in the EPL these days. The big question will be how he approaches the increasing number of squads that are happy to sit deep against the top-6. That’s mor or less what separated spots 2-6 this season.

http://outsideoftheboot.com/2015/07/23/tactical-philosophy-unai-emery/
 
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Time to Mo Vaughn

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I was really holding out hope that Jardim or Tuchel might have worked out, but I'll certainly take Emery over Arteta.

Interesting that one of those articles mentions his tactics not playing well for possession football and that his Sevilla teams were brilliant counter attackers.
 

mikeford

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Jardim was the Ligue 1 guy to get, IMO.

I'm not over the moon about this. He's better than Wenger to be sure and probably better than Arteta but his Sevilla record has some troubling blemishes on it. Specifically he sucked ass in away matches (going so far as lose every away match of the year in his final season at the club) and that apparently he has difficulty with players who are divas and our best player happens to be a humongous fucking diva.

Not really sure we have the ball winners in midfield or defense to play his style of counter attacking ball. The guys up top certainly fit the bill though so maybe he can mold the rest of the side via transfers.
 

hube

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I’m not thrilled about this move.

I do think Arteta was the right choice - ties to the club, league experience, tutored by the best - and hope they don’t regret this one. I wonder what the apparent change of heart was.