Getting Smart with Statistics

Spelunker

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I'm chopping vegetables right now and I'm literally inches away from severing a tendon in my hand.
 

radsoxfan

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I understand that enormous desire sportswriters have to build whole pieces around a stupid cliché, but how big do you suppose the author thinks Smart’s hand is?
Yeah, the glass was definitely no more than a couple of millimeters (or less) from his tendon.

You can't have a piece of glass stuck in your palm that is inches away from a tendon, and if it was between two tendons, it was likely 1 mm away or touching them. I guess it's just a phrase but a very weird one to use in this instance.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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MS with a very "Smart" game last night: 2-7 shooting (0-4 from 3P land) leading to 9 points and 6 assists but in addition, 4 deflections, 2 steals, 1 offensive foul drawn; the one monster put-back and when he was on the court, the Cs had 96.8 points per 100 possessions (33 minutes) compared to 137.6 points per 100 possessions when he was off-court (15 minutes).

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned in this thread is how valuable Smart is in Brad's switching defense. Having a guard who can switch onto bigs is really really important for his scheme to work, otherwise the Cs have to give up easy buckets inside or they have to double and start scrambling to cover the other team's 3P shooters.

I hope they find a way to keep him next year.

Highlights here: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2018/03/boston_celtics_analysis_marcus_4.html
 

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MS with a very "Smart" game last night: 2-7 shooting (0-4 from 3P land) leading to 9 points and 6 assists but in addition, 4 deflections, 2 steals, 1 offensive foul drawn; the one monster put-back and when he was on the court, the Cs had 96.8 points per 100 possessions (33 minutes) compared to 137.6 points per 100 possessions when he was off-court (15 minutes).

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned in this thread is how valuable Smart is in Brad's switching defense. Having a guard who can switch onto bigs is really really important for his scheme to work, otherwise the Cs have to give up easy buckets inside or they have to double and start scrambling to cover the other team's 3P shooters.

I hope they find a way to keep him next year.

Highlights here: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2018/03/boston_celtics_analysis_marcus_4.html
The stats we have available also can't measure "traffic copping" in that kind of switch defense. I've taken some time to just focus on Smart and he does a lot of communicating on defense.

This is also a likely candidate for an area where individual ability matters less than working in a group; like, how much of a great defense is communication versus athletic ability? This should also have an effect on the differential value different teams might place on a given player depending on who the player will play with and in what system.
 

Spelunker

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MS with a very "Smart" game last night: 2-7 shooting (0-4 from 3P land) leading to 9 points and 6 assists but in addition, 4 deflections, 2 steals, 1 offensive foul drawn; the one monster put-back and when he was on the court, the Cs had 96.8 points per 100 possessions (33 minutes) compared to 137.6 points per 100 possessions when he was off-court (15 minutes).

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned in this thread is how valuable Smart is in Brad's switching defense. Having a guard who can switch onto bigs is really really important for his scheme to work, otherwise the Cs have to give up easy buckets inside or they have to double and start scrambling to cover the other team's 3P shooters.

I hope they find a way to keep him next year.

Highlights here: http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2018/03/boston_celtics_analysis_marcus_4.html
The other thing I love about Smart's putback was Tatum before it. He missed the shot, but it was great to see how ludicrously open he got himself off the dribble.
 

DannyDarwinism

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The stats we have available also can't measure "traffic copping" in that kind of switch defense. I've taken some time to just focus on Smart and he does a lot of communicating on defense.

This is also a likely candidate for an area where individual ability matters less than working in a group; like, how much of a great defense is communication versus athletic ability? This should also have an effect on the differential value different teams might place on a given player depending on who the player will play with and in what system.
Yeah, I think so. I called him the linebacker with the green dot on his helmet in another thread for his capacity to recognize opponents' offensive sets and get the defense set correspondingly.


MS with a very "Smart" game last night: 2-7 shooting (0-4 from 3P land) leading to 9 points and 6 assists but in addition, 4 deflections, 2 steals, 1 offensive foul drawn; the one monster put-back and when he was on the court, the Cs had 96.8 points per 100 possessions (33 minutes) compared to 137.6 points per 100 possessions when he was off-court (15 minutes).
Here's an article from yesterday in the WaPo that delves into how the ability to draw offensive fouls is more valuable than one might initially suspect, and how Smart is really, really good at it:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/03/07/the-celtics-marcus-smart-cant-shoot-heres-why-hes-an-all-star-contributor-though/?utm_term=.b4a1240572d1
 

chilidawg

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And he went out of his way to switch onto Gibson, iirc. Smart punches way above his weight class on defense, before you even consider his orchestration, anticipation, and drawing charges.
In the middle of the circus show that is the TNT halftime, Kenny did a great piece on how Irving had switched onto Gibson, but Smart switched out with him before the pass got into the post. Great communication. I couldn't help but think about how slow Minny was at getting the ball into the mismatch as well.
 

JCizzle

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Jesus. It feels weird having no real hope going into the playoffs as a 2/3 seed, winning anything at this point would be great.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Larkin and Morris were awful early, but Larkin redeemed himself in the second half. I don’t think he’ll vanish from the rotation completely.

I think Smart will get most of the scrub minutes (they might stick with Ojeleye v Maker, which seems to work well) plus some of the minutes from Baynes, Morris, and/or Monroe, as well as Larkin.

Definitely he gives them something they have been lacking without him.
 

JakeRae

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Larkin and Morris were awful early, but Larkin redeemed himself in the second half. I don’t think he’ll vanish from the rotation completely.

I think Smart will get most of the scrub minutes (they might stick with Ojeleye v Maker, which seems to work well) plus some of the minutes from Baynes, Morris, and/or Monroe, as well as Larkin.

Definitely he gives them something they have been lacking without him.
Larkin was bad all game. His team worst plus minus is consistent with that. He's been consistently the worst Celtic all series. He is a liability on both sides of the ball and should not be playing except we have no healthy guards.
 

JakeRae

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Not even a question in my mind.
It seems like the original plan was to get him on a court in practice before Game 6 to see how he handled contact before putting him in a game. This change indicates that is no longer the plan. It now seems like if he is cleared, he will play.
 

JCizzle

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I'm kind of envisioning a dramatic halftime arrival escorted by police from Logan a la Doug Mirabelli.
In my mind, he and the other Marcus are going to morph into the bash brothers from mighty ducks 2 when he finally gets back out there
 
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Eddie Jurak

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Getting Smart back is, needless to say, exactly what the team needs.

Withough him, their defense has been terrible. He gives them someone who can guard Middleton, and gives Stevens more coaching options.

The other thing is that the Celtics' offense has been missing having a PG who can run the pick and roll with Horford.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I love Rozier but if forced to choose between the two, I am taking Smart without hesitation. The latter doesn't play beautiful basketball but he does things effectively that very few other NBA players can do. He is just tougher than most other players in the NBA.
 

BigSoxFan

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I love Rozier but if forced to choose between the two, I am taking Smart without hesitation. The latter doesn't play beautiful basketball but he does things effectively that very few other NBA players can do. He is just tougher than most other players in the NBA.
Yup. The real question is how we get value for Rozier this offseason. Wonder if Clippers would trade 13 for Rozier/27.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Yup. The real question is how we get value for Rozier this offseason. Wonder if Clippers would trade 13 for Rozier/27.
Is 13 alone really worth more than Rozier?

Edit: If Rozier had been a former Doc Celtic this deal would be all but certain. Alas he's not...
 

Eddie Jurak

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I love Rozier but if forced to choose between the two, I am taking Smart without hesitation. The latter doesn't play beautiful basketball but he does things effectively that very few other NBA players can do. He is just tougher than most other players in the NBA.
Yes, especially on this team, where scoring should be covered by Kyrie, Gordon, Jaylen, and Jayson. I remain curious about what Smart's contract number will turn out to be and Rozier's trade value.
 

joe dokes

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Smart's defense and toughness get all the attention, but I think that his shooting obscures how great his offensive instincts are. I can't put my finger on it, but the offense just flows so smoothly when he's playing.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is 13 alone really worth more than Rozier?

Edit: If Rozier had been a former Doc Celtic this deal would be all but certain. Alas he's not...
Given that Rozier is a RFA next summer, probably. But Clips seem like a decent match since they don’t have a long-term answer at PG and have 12/13 in the draft. It will all depend on the Smart situation. If he goes, then Rozier likely stays.
 

dhellers

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I love Rozier but if forced to choose between the two, I am taking Smart without hesitation. The latter doesn't play beautiful basketball but he does things effectively that very few other NBA players can do. He is just tougher than most other players in the NBA.
Somewhere I read a quote ascribed to celtics management: "if the Celts get rid of Smart, they will spend the next 3 years looking for his replacement".
 

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Somewhere I read a quote ascribed to celtics management: "if the Celts get rid of Smart, they will spend the next 3 years looking for his replacement".
I think this is a really good way of putting it.

I mean, does anyone see themselves pining for Rozier after a tough loss next year? Or in a game where they get just plain out-willed?
 

Sprowl

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I think this is a really good way of putting it.

I mean, does anyone see themselves pining for Rozier after a tough loss next year? Or in a game where they get just plain out-willed?
Yes, definitely, when the Celtics fail to get a loose ball or are getting outrebounded.

Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.

Smart only had one ridiculous heave early in the shot clock during his first game back, but there will be more games when Marcus succumbs to the Heroball Sirens. Smart gives away as much as he gets.
 

Red Averages

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Smart's defense and toughness get all the attention, but I think that his shooting obscures how great his offensive instincts are. I can't put my finger on it, but the offense just flows so smoothly when he's playing.
He is VERY good at spacing, as well as creating opportunities for passing. Unfortunately "spacing" isn't a statistic that can be measured. Multiple times last night he created opportunities by quietly sliding away from an open shooter to give them more room, while taking his defender with him. He also had several good passes, which directly led to baskets or created the ball movement that led to one. Let's also not forget that his defense often leads to opportunities in transition, before the other defense can be set. Most of all he's not generally standing still hoping something magically gets created, which is where our offense really stalls out. He's constantly moving, which can open up things a bit easier.

Also the team only scored 92 points, not like we dominated. This was more about defense winning the game than offense.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yes, definitely, when the Celtics fail to get a loose ball or are getting outrebounded.

Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.

Smart only had one ridiculous heave early in the shot clock during his first game back, but there will be more games when Marcus succumbs to the Heroball Sirens. Smart gives away as much as he gets.
This is the thing we struggle with here in the Port Cellar. Does Smart, in fact, give away as much as he gets? His stat line, including advanced metrics, suggests it's true. However Stevens and Ainge keep trotting him out there in key situations and Smart appears to impact games in ways that aren't easily measured. Or perhaps our eyes fool us.

Smart is one of the most fascinating professional athletes I've come across in terms of how difficult he is to evaluate. Looking at his stats, the guy seems to be no more than a basic rotation player with good defense and a mediocre offensive game. As such, he should be an easy guy to let walk when he gets more expensive. But I believe most people here would agree that he is more valuable than your average NBA defensive specialist.
 

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He is VERY good at spacing, as well as creating opportunities for passing. Unfortunately "spacing" isn't a statistic that can be measured. Multiple times last night he created opportunities by quietly sliding away from an open shooter to give them more room, while taking his defender with him. He also had several good passes, which directly led to baskets or created the ball movement that led to one. Let's also not forget that his defense often leads to opportunities in transition, before the other defense can be set. Most of all he's not generally standing still hoping something magically gets created, which is where our offense really stalls out. He's constantly moving, which can open up things a bit easier.

Also the team only scored 92 points, not like we dominated. This was more about defense winning the game than offense.
Why do they follow Smart closely instead of just loosely and hope he's the one who ends up taking the shot?
 

BigSoxFan

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This is the thing we struggle with here in the Port Cellar. Does Smart, in fact, give away as much as he gets? His stat line, including advanced metrics, suggests it's true. However Stevens and Ainge keep trotting him out there in key situations and Smart appears to impact games in ways that aren't easily measured. Or perhaps our eyes fool us.

Smart is one of the most fascinating professional athletes I've come across in terms of how difficult he is to evaluate. Looking at his stats, the guy seems to be no more than a basic rotation player with good defense and a mediocre offensive game. As such, he should be an easy guy to let walk when he gets more expensive. But I believe most people here would agree that he is more valuable than your average NBA defensive specialist.
Part of it is that Smart is a closer. He consistently makes winning plays at the end of games and needs to be out there to close teams out. I really don’t know what Stevens would do if he had his full starting 5. Does anyone in the Hayward/Tatum/Brown group actually get benched for Marcus? Does he try to play offense/defense with Kyrie more? That’s obviously not easy to do.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yes, definitely, when the Celtics fail to get a loose ball or are getting outrebounded.

Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.
I think it stems from a recognition that he has likely played himself out of affordability for a team that could be looking at the luxury tax soon. Signing Rozier for market rate puts them at risk for the repeater tax unless they do something wacky with Kyrie, Horford or Brown. If there are teams out there who look at what Rozier has done since Kyrie went down and see a young guy who can run an offense, this is a good opportunity to sell high on a guy you can't really afford anyway. Smart, on the other hand, is a guy who I suspect will have less appeal around the league, and he'll be heading into a FA when only a handful of teams will have cap space. I think it's much more likely that the Cs get priced out on Rozier. With Hayward back, secondary ball handler/scorer shouldn't be as much of a priority, and it just won't make sense to pay Rozier the starter money he'll likely command, especially if they can get a decent pick and/or cap flexibility.
 

Bleedred

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Yes, definitely, when the Celtics fail to get a loose ball or are getting outrebounded.

Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.

Smart only had one ridiculous heave early in the shot clock during his first game back, but there will be more games when Marcus succumbs to the Heroball Sirens. Smart gives away as much as he gets.
I share your skepticism about the value of Smart (I think he's a net positive, and Brad and Danny love him, so who the hell am I to argue, but there's a lot he gives away as well). I take issue with your evaluation of Rozier. I don't think he has great handle, at least not insofar as he is able to use it to great efficiency. As often as not, he finds himself pounding the ball into the parquet through a series of useless dribbles. Where his handle is most effective, IMO, is separating himself from a defender on the perimeter for an open shot (see game 1 of this Series). However, his handle is not anything like Chris Paul, Kyrie, Harden, Westbrook (pick your guy) to get to the basket or create for others. He simply doesn't have that type of offense generating skill, at least not yet. I also think his distribution skills are underwhelming and have not witnessed the improvement that you suggest. I like Terry, he's been a fantastic #2 PG given Kyrie's injury, but I wouldn't be shy about moving him at all if it netted us a decent return.

Edit: spelling
 

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I think any trade offer for Rozier will need to be weighed by DA and BS as "is the return on this trade more valuable than what Rozier can add in the 2018-19 season?"

The choice re: re-signing Marcus this summer will be in large part driven by what offers he can get elsewhere (perhaps DA takes the Belichick approach -- e.g. Hightower -- of "find out how much the market will offer you and give us a chance to match.). Could Semi grow into the kind of defensive stopper that Marcus is today?

I don't think it's a question of Marcus or Terry; I don't think that they will re-sign Terry under almost any circumstance, while I think Marcus's chance of re-signing will be $-driven.
 

Smokey Joe

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Why do they follow Smart closely instead of just loosely and hope he's the one who ends up taking the shot?
That’s the question. I think that they stick with him because he will make a play of some sort. He will embarrass his defender in some way and it doesn’t necessarily have to be something that shows up in the stats. Then the coach yells at you.
I think that Smart spends the game in constant purposeful motion and laying off him allows him more opportunity and sticking to him allows him to manipulate his defender. There is no good answer here for the opposing team.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I think any trade offer for Rozier will need to be weighed by DA and BS as "is the return on this trade more valuable than what Rozier can add in the 2018-19 season?"
I think Rozier's value to this team as a secondary ball-handler and scorer takes a significant hit next year if we assume both Kyrie and Hayward are healthy. A lot of teams could use a guy like him, but if we already have two guys who do what he does, only better, what do we expect his minutes to look like? How often does he see the floor at crunch time?

Tangential observation, but Rozier's rebounding prowess and lack of turnovers put him in pretty rare company among guards. In the past 10 years, the only guys with similar usage who have combined his rebounding rates with his low turnover rates have been Brandon Roy and Jason Richardson.
 

JakeRae

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My reason for thinking Rozier is a strong candidate to be traded is basically that I think RFAs have substantial value to a team that wants them long term because they should sign for below market. Rozier also has value to a team that is or will be capped out in that they can trade for him now, before his salary jumps. A lot of teams that cannot hand Rozier a 4-year $60 million dollar contract might be happy to have him at that price. (Price is a guess at his next contract but isn't the point.) The Celtics don't have the luxury tax room going forward to keep Rozier at what he is likely worth and because teams will know that, they are less likely to be afraid to make offers to him, so his RFA is probably worthless to us.

Thus, I think trading Rozier should create an opportunity for both sides to come out ahead with the Celtics getting back a package worth more than 1 season of Rozier and the receiving team getting what is likely at least 5 years of him, with the latter 4 still discounted v. true free agency prices and with the potential to go above the cap for them.

I do think he has real value to the Celtics next year, so I would not want to just give him away.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I love Wicked Smart and wish he would stay forever but I just can't see it. Yes I know that at least 25 teams aren't going to value him the way he wants to be valued but all it takes is one team. (I keep going back to PHO because they have a bunch of talented guys who apparently don't know how to play basketball and Devin Booker has intimated that if he doesn't make the playoffs next year, he's not signing an extension with them).

Cap-wise, if another team wants Wicked Smart, the Cs can't stop it from happening. And he gets such good press, I find it difficult to believe that no other GM in the league isn't going to step up with something substantial.

And I will hate watching him play the Cs.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Why is everybody so keen on trading Rozier? Given the durability issues, I wouldn't be so confident about Irving making it back to peak condition. Rozier has a great handle, low turnover ratios, and improving distribution skills.

Smart only had one ridiculous heave early in the shot clock during his first game back, but there will be more games when Marcus succumbs to the Heroball Sirens. Smart gives away as much as he gets.
I would not suggest I’m “keen” on trading Rozier, but realistically, they don’t have the cap room to sign every good player on the current team. He’s somewhat redundant, more than good enough to start, not good enough that you think about handing him the keys and letting Kyrie walk, but should be worth something in a deal.