2017 NBA Draft Thread

Drocca

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He was a projected lottery pick after one year. Tell me if my thinking here is crazy:

Someone like Blake Griffin starts the clock a year earlier and, as a result, loses ~$6 million compared to staying one year. But we then extend his NBA career one year in the other direction and can assume that's a bigger # than $6M, particularly given the escalating salaries with age.
 

Spelunker

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He was a projected lottery pick after one year. Tell me if my thinking here is crazy:

Someone like Blake Griffin starts the clock a year earlier and, as a result, loses ~$6 million compared to staying one year. But we then extend his NBA career one year in the other direction and can assume that's a bigger # than $6M, particularly given the escalating salaries with age.
Are you postulating that his career would be one year longer (presumably because college is less taxing than the pros) or same length career but time shifted one year, so taking advantage of a general Daisy like salary inflation?

Either way, I think the most likely outcome is that you play to a certain age, and every additional year of college shortens your pro career by the same amount, lowering your total earnings commensurately.
 

Drocca

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I'm just postulating the latter - same overall career length but one additional year of his career playing in the NBA as opposed to college.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You would probably have to look at guys who were projected as late 1st round picks, went back to school, became lottery picks and ended up being busts. Otherwise, staying in school is -EV for anyone who plays longer than their rookie contracts. And a lot of people who decide to play that extra year get drafted lower because more of their warts were exposed.
 

nighthob

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Not quite as surprising to me as Robert Williams, who was truly a shock given the relative weakness of this year's center class, but yeah, it's certainly rolling the dice financially. Apparently Bridges consulted Gary Harris about the decision. It's a bit refreshing to see an elite prospect actually think twice about making the jump. If he stays, I hope it works out for him. Another year learning from Izzo and being The Guy could benefit his long term development.
Yeah, Williams was a real shock. He's so raw offensively that I had him on my second round watch list as recently as January, but this class has so few bigs that his physicals alone made him a potential late lottery pick. But next year's crop is mostly forwards, so even if he develops and improves his game, it's not likely to improve his draft stock any.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He was a projected lottery pick after one year. Tell me if my thinking here is crazy:

Someone like Blake Griffin starts the clock a year earlier and, as a result, loses ~$6 million compared to staying one year. But we then extend his NBA career one year in the other direction and can assume that's a bigger # than $6M, particularly given the escalating salaries with age.
Yeah, that makes sense to me- even if it's a one year deal at the end of our hypothetical player's career, it's still a lost year of earnings. For me, it's avoiding the tail risk that makes the decision to bounce so understandable. Forgoing, say, 8 mil over career in which you can expect to earn 100 mil is one thing, but risking that entire rookie contract to began with, even if the chances of catastrophic injury or a black swan event are remote, is something I wouldn't expect from someone who isn't already very wealthy.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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A day in the life of Markelle Fultz here: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/04/18/markelle-fultz-profile-nba-draft-washington-dc-lonzo-ball.

Two teasers, one about Fultz and one about basketball:

Over the course of eight hours together, it was tempting to view Fultz as the anti-Lonzo Ball. He's nowhere near SportsCenter or First Take. Instead of a hype man father, he's trailed by a mother and older sister who have been bossing him around for two decades, neither of whom has challenged Michael Jordan to one-on-one.

Fultz can play along with any conclusions you want to draw. "I like doing everything under the radar," he says. "I don't like making a scene. As far as being cocky, I never want to put anybody below me. I've been at the bottom. I know what it feels like to work hard, and when somebody else tries to showboat, it just makes me want to work harder."

and

Or as another NBA player put it, "People don't realize it because they didn't get to watch him as much this year. I don't want to say he's a Russ-level athlete, but he's closer to that than not. If he went to the combine, which I'm not sure he'd ever have a reason to, but if he went, he'd test off the charts. He's just a f---ing freak."
 

southshoresoxfan

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A day in the life of Markelle Fultz here: https://www.si.com/nba/2017/04/18/markelle-fultz-profile-nba-draft-washington-dc-lonzo-ball.

Two teasers, one about Fultz and one about basketball:

Over the course of eight hours together, it was tempting to view Fultz as the anti-Lonzo Ball. He's nowhere near SportsCenter or First Take. Instead of a hype man father, he's trailed by a mother and older sister who have been bossing him around for two decades, neither of whom has challenged Michael Jordan to one-on-one.

Fultz can play along with any conclusions you want to draw. "I like doing everything under the radar," he says. "I don't like making a scene. As far as being cocky, I never want to put anybody below me. I've been at the bottom. I know what it feels like to work hard, and when somebody else tries to showboat, it just makes me want to work harder."

and

Or as another NBA player put it, "People don't realize it because they didn't get to watch him as much this year. I don't want to say he's a Russ-level athlete, but he's closer to that than not. If he went to the combine, which I'm not sure he'd ever have a reason to, but if he went, he'd test off the charts. He's just a f---ing freak."
I want him so bad it hurts.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yup. He seems to be another Jaylen Brown from a makeup standpoint and his skill set is obviously more robust. On the court, he is exactly what this team needs.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I want him so bad it hurts.
So, so bad. On the flip side, if he ends up on the Sixers and Embiid and Simmons stay healthy, it's game over in the East in a couple of years. And man it'd suck if the Lakers end up with him.

Long, two-way wings are probably the most valuable assets in the league these days, so I could get excited about Jackson, but I really just love everything about Fultz. Markelle's mom >>> Lonzo's dad.

I watched more UW games than is remotely reasonable for an East Coast guy with young kids and that article for me must be what a Bieber Valentine's Day YouTube message is like for a teenage girl. I'm all tingly.

I wonder if the unnamed NBA player in that piece is Isaiah. Maybe Chriss or Dejounte Murray, but I'd think it'd be a Washington guy to have seen him up close.

Edit- it's not IT
 
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DJnVa

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I want him so bad it hurts.

He's who I want as well. I think that means IT4 leaves, and scoring might be an issue next year.

Wonder what IT4 and Nets 2018 #1 would bring.

The future is bright, just a myriad of ways to get there.
 

amfox1

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Updated as of 4/20pm (deadline is 4/23), updated as of 4/24am for agent signings

Declared for the draft, signing with an agent:

Bam Adebayo, Kentucky
Jarrett Allen, Texas
Ike Anigbogu, UCLA
OG Anunoby, Indiana
Dwayne Bacon, Florida State
Lonzo Ball, UCLA
Jordan Bell, Oregon
Antonio Blakeney, LSU
Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky
John Collins, Wake Forest
Zach Collins, Gonzaga
Tyler Dorsey, Oregon
PJ Dozier, South Carolina
Juwan Evans, Oklahoma State
De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky
Markelle Fultz, Washington
Harry Giles III, Duke
Isaac Humphries, Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
Josh Jackson, Kansas
Justin Jackson, North Carolina
Marcus Keene, Central Michigan
Luke Kennard, Duke
T.J. Leaf, UCLA
Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
Lauri Markkanen, Arizona
Malik Monk, Kentucky
Austin Nichols, Virginia
Cameron Oliver, Nevada
Justin Patton, Creighton
L.J. Peak, Georgetown
Ivan Rabb, California
Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State
Devin Robinson, Florida
Kobi Simmons, Arizona
Dennis Smith, Jr., NC State
Edmond Sumner, Xavier
Jayson Tatum, Duke
Melo Trimble, Maryland
Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga

Declared but won't hire agent:

Shaqquan Aaron, USC
Jaylen Adams, St. Bonaventure
Deng Adel, Louisville
Jashaun Agosto, LIU Brooklyn
Rawle Alkins, Arizona
Jaylen Barford, Arkansas
Joel Berry II, North Carolina
James Blackmon, Indiana
Trevon Bluiett, Xavier
Bennie Boatwright, USC
Tony Bradley, North Carolina
Dillon Brooks, Oregon
Thomas Bryant, Indiana
Rodney Bullock, Providence
Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall
Joseph Chartouny, Fordham
Donte Clark, Massachusetts
Chance Comanche, Arizona
Angel Delgado, Seton Hall
Hamidou Diallo, Kentucky
Vince Edwards, Purdue
John Egbunu, Florida
Jon Elmore, Marshall
Obi Enechionyia, Temple
Drew Eubanks, Oregon State
Tacko Fall, Central Florida
Brandon Goodwin, Florida Gulf Coast
Isaac Haas, Purdue
Aaron Holiday, UCLA
Chandler Hutchinson, Boise State
Frank Jackson, Duke
B.J. Johnson, La Salle
Darin Johnson, Cal-Northridge
Jaylen Johnson, Louisville
Robert Johnson, Indiana
Andrew Jones, Texas
Braxton Key, Alabama
Kyle Kuzma, Utah
William Lee, Alabama-Birmingham
Daryl Macon, Arkansas
Yante Maten, Georgia
Markis McDuffie, Wichita State
MiKyle McIntosh, Illinois State
Eric Mika, BYU
Donovan Mitchell, Louisville
Matt Morgan, Cornell
Johnathan Motley, Baylor
Svi Mykhailiuk, Kansas
Semi Ojeleye, SMU
Randy Onwuasor, Southern Utah
Theo Pinson, North Carolina
Maverick Rowan, NC State
Corey Sanders, Rutgers
Jaaron Simmons, Ohio
Fred Sims, Chicago State
Jaren Sina, George Washington
Zach Smith, Texas Tech
Elijah Stewart, USC
Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
Stephen Thompson, Oregon State
Trevor Thompson, Ohio State
Moritz Wagner, Michigan
Thomas Welch, UCLA
Thomas Wilder, Western Michigan
Johnathan Williams, Gonzaga
DJ Wilson, Michigan
Omer Yurtseven, NC State
 
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boca

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He's who I want as well. I think that means IT4 leaves, and scoring might be an issue next year.

Wonder what IT4 and Nets 2018 #1 would bring.

The future is bright, just a myriad of ways to get there.
Fultz can play at 2 so maybe it opens the door to a Bradley trade rather than Thomas?

So many options though as you said.
 

nighthob

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Am I the only one rooting for Austin Nichols to make it big in the NBA? Because I really want to hear announcer say "The Wild Turkey is on the loose, baby!" Pity that he's unlikely to make the NBA anytime before the 2020 season.
 

TheRealness

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Hopefully the Celts are still playing at that point. Would be incredible to see them land the #1 pick on the same night as say game 2 of the ECF
Bill Simmons had a tweet that said there is a potential three day period where it could be Day 1 - Game 7 of Bos-Was series, Day 2 - Lottery, and Day 3 - Game 1 of ECF.
 

amfox1

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Draft updates (to above list):

Declared for the draft, signed with an agent, not invited to the combine:


Antonio Blakeney, LSU (alternate)
Isaac Humphries, Kentucky
Marcus Keene, Central Michigan
Austin Nichols, Virginia
L.J. Peak, Georgetown (alternate)
Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State

Declared and withdrew:

Joel Berry II, North Carolina
Rodney Bullock, Providence
Randy Onwuasor, Southern Utah
Theo Pinson, North Carolina

Declared without signing with an agent, now signed with an agent:

Thomas Bryant, Indiana
Kyle Kuzma, Utah
Johnathan Motley, Baylor
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
I wonder if Ball will fall to three or even further

Dunc'd On Podcast said it well, elite players allow teams to win championships. Elite, elite, elite. That is why I am still of the opinion that these selections should be kept and developed no matter how deep the current Cs are and I applaud Danny at sticking to his guns. Future is bright. The 18 draft looks to have a Lebron, Wade, Melo (minus the Lebron level prospect top tier)
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think it's been asked, but where would Jaylen and Zizic get drafted if they came out this year?
 

nighthob

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Given what we now know? Brown's still a top 8 pick and Zizic probably is as well (due to the shortage of quality bigs).
 

Sam Ray Not

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Hopefully the Celts are still playing at that point. Would be incredible to see them land the #1 pick on the same night as say game 2 of the ECF
Which raises the hypothetical question for Cs fans: would you rather lose to the Wizards and snag the #1 pick or beat them and get a lower pick?
 

Sam Ray Not

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Easiest decision ever. Lose and get #1.
Haha, yeah, I suspected as much. Of course, I feel like that's more a vote of no confidence in the Cs chances of getting past Cleveland and the WC Champ than a vote of confidence that Markelle Fultz is overwhelmingly likely to be better than the guy at #2, 3 or 4.

Suppose the odds of IT shocking the world and getting the Cs championship #18 were the same (25%) as the odds of getting the #1 pick. (Say, if LeBron, Curry, Durant, Leonard and Harden all came down with a six-week flu). Same answer?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would take the Celtics at 25% odds to win #18 and the 4th pick over the 1st pick and 0% odds.
 

Cellar-Door

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I would take the Celtics at 25% odds to win #18 and the 4th pick over the 1st pick and 0% odds.
They wouldn't have 25% odds though, probably something like 5-10% I'd guess . Would be significant underdogs in each ECF game and even bigger underdogs in each Finals game if they made it.
 

nighthob

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Haha, yeah, I suspected as much. Of course, I feel like that's more a vote of no confidence in the Cs chances of getting past Cleveland and the WC Champ than a vote of confidence that Markelle Fultz is overwhelmingly likely to be better than the guy at #2, 3 or 4.
Except that Fultz is a lot better than the guys that are going to go 2-4, and that's not a knock on them.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Except that Fultz is a lot better than the guys that are going to go 2-4, and that's not a knock on them.
As prospect, in terms of upside, that seems to be the case. But that's also what people said about Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins and a lot of other unanimous #1s who weren't actually the best players in their class. (I guess Wiggins still has a shot, if Embiid never gets healthy, but to date I'm not impressed).
 

smastroyin

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Your point is well taken but I think Rose would still be far and away the best player (yes, including Westbrook) if he didn't blow out his knee.

Also, regarding Kyrie, yes, obviously Kawhi and Jimmy Butler (and you'll say Klay Thompson I know ;) and some might say IT ) are better, but noone was even considering those guys for top 5 picks.

Last, the real issue is that the Celtics don't need the hedge for a guy with a higher floor. We are talking strictly about using the pick for that upside, and, while it's easy to say "I'll take the field (or even the other top 5) vs. Markelle Fultz" the Celtics don't have that choice. They only get one pick.
 

nighthob

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As prospect, in terms of upside, that seems to be the case. But that's also what people said about Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins and a lot of other unanimous #1s who weren't actually the best players in their class. (I guess Wiggins still has a shot, if Embiid never gets healthy, but to date I'm not impressed).
Embiid was the guy they said that about in the Wiggins draft, but the injuries were a well known problem. And the Wiggins draft was more known as the "There are 3-4 guys that are legitimate #1 picks in any given year" than getting a guy that was going to dominate the NBA from the minute he set foot on the court.

Kyrie was rated as the best of a middling draft pool, even with all the injury flags, but that was more a reflection on the available choices. Of the players that ended up being better three were a midget, a guy that was a terrible college shooter that had the good fortune to end up on the Spurs and the Marquette guy that wasn't in prime physical condition coming out of school. But, again, it was more about 2011 being a middling pool.

Both Griffin and Rose were the best players in their pool until injuries overtook them. (Frankly Rose was Westbrook until RWB came into his own, people forget just how good MVP level Rose was.) And I don't think that the consensus was that Griffin was head and shoulders over everyone else so much as that he was the best of a good pool. It took the Pilsbury Draftboy to fuck that up for the Grizz.

But, back to Fultz, it's not about consensus, he can score from everywhere on the floor, which is the rarest sort of player. He scores at the rim, he's deadly when spotting up for a jumper, can shoot off the bounce, and does it all with range. Add in the ballhandling, passing, and the physicals (the size/length/athleticism to defend multiple spots on the floor). And in Boston he would have the advantage of learning the trade on a winning veteran team. Giving all that away for a 1 in 4 shot at a title just doesn't make for good math. Long term they're much better off with Fultz and Thomas than Thomas, a lesser prospect, and a 75% chance of not winning the chip.
 

tims4wins

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You had me up until your second to last sentence. A 1 in 4 chance to win the title are great odds. What are Cleveland and GS, like 1 in 3 each? But it's a moot point anyway since the C's chances this year are more like 1 in 20 even at this juncture and we all want Fultz
 

nighthob

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You had me up until your second to last sentence. A 1 in 4 chance to win the title are great odds. What are Cleveland and GS, like 1 in 3 each? But it's a moot point anyway since the C's chances this year are more like 1 in 20 even at this juncture and we all want Fultz
A 75% chance of not winning a title and a much lower chance of landing a franchise player at #4 is the overwhelming most likely scenario in the hypothetical. Give me #1 and I'll take my chances in 2018 and beyond.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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As prospect, in terms of upside, that seems to be the case. But that's also what people said about Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving, Andrew Wiggins and a lot of other unanimous #1s who weren't actually the best players in their class. (I guess Wiggins still has a shot, if Embiid never gets healthy, but to date I'm not impressed).
The point is not that the #1 pick is going to be the best player but teams who pick #1 have an exponentially better chance of picking a multiple All-Star player than with later picks.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Yeah, I got that point. I was just noting that it's a probability rather than a certainty, and wondering how folks would weigh that probability against a 25% (hypothetical) probability of winning a title.

I may also have been trying to get at the more philosophical question of "which is more exciting as a sports fan: your team winning it all, or your team having an exciting young prospect with boundless potential?" Though I think the former is nominally every sports fan's goal, there is something more ineffably fun and fulfilling about the latter.
 
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Koufax

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3% and 77% respectively, according to 538.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

Realistically (since they're clearly undervaluing the LeBron factor and the Cleveland "switch," and overvaluing the Cavs' poor regular season Pythag) it's probably more like 30% Cavs, 77% Warriors, 3% other.
Wait just a minute! 538 now gives the Celtics a better chance of making it to the finals than it gives Cleveland (43% vs. 32%). Where can I short those odds?
 

LondonSox

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I think it's been asked, but where would Jaylen and Zizic get drafted if they came out this year?
Behind Fultz, ball, Jackson, Tatum, Isaac and Smith at the very best. Maybe monk, maybe fox. Maybe Collins. Maybe even Ntilikina.

But 7-12 region is my estimate. No idea zizic
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Brown would be like Isaac, could go anywhere from 4 to 10. Zizic is probably in the 8-12 group.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Are we talking about if JB would be ranked in this draft if he was a freshman at Cal this year or are we talking about where JB would be drafted if he could magically re-enter the draft this year?

Because if the latter he'd be #2 easy - I mean if he shot 34% from 3 at Cal showing range out to the NBA 3P line, would he have been in the conversation for the #1 pick that year?
 

Cesar Crespo

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The latter. And I don't think his year in the NBA improved his stock that much. He'd might not even go 3rd in a redraft of 2016 depending on who you ask.
 

Drocca

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Agreed. For all the talk on here about him being Jimmy Butler 2.0 it remains a higher likelyhood that he's just another guy. It's a pretty deep draft, I'd say he's around 10.