2017 NBA Draft Thread

chilidawg

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Draft Express has started posting their invaluable strengths and weaknesses videos with Markelle Fultz up today. For anyone who has not seen Fultz play because Washington sucked the big one and was on at 10:30 at night on the Pac-12 network, and is wondering why he's going to likely be the #1 pick, highly recommend watching: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/markelle-fultz-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/
Seems to me that interviews and individual workouts will be really important with Fultz. The skills and athleticism are there, but are the motor and competitive fire needed to be a winner? It wasn't evident at UW, but that program was such a shitshow that it's hard to judge.
 

Cellar-Door

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Seems to me that interviews and individual workouts will be really important with Fultz. The skills and athleticism are there, but are the motor and competitive fire needed to be a winner? It wasn't evident at UW, but that program was such a shitshow that it's hard to judge.
What are you talking about? He dragged that team on his back and all anyone talked about was how invested he was in their success, how unlike say a Simmons he didn't check out once it was clear they'd miss the tourney. The only negative I've ever heard on Fultz is that his defensive effort was inconsistent, but honestly I'm far less worried about that in a guy carrying a massive offensive load on a terrible team than from guys who have smaller roles on teams that should be good (cough BALL cough).
 

chilidawg

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What are you talking about? He dragged that team on his back and all anyone talked about was how invested he was in their success, how unlike say a Simmons he didn't check out once it was clear they'd miss the tourney. The only negative I've ever heard on Fultz is that his defensive effort was inconsistent, but honestly I'm far less worried about that in a guy carrying a massive offensive load on a terrible team than from guys who have smaller roles on teams that should be good (cough BALL cough).
Well, I read the Draft Express article, and it seemed they had concerns. I also watched a few games, and wasn't that impressed. Here's a couple quotes;

He has a very casual approach to the game, which manifests itself on both ends of the floor, and makes him look like he's operating at half speed at times. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/markelle-fultz-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/ ©DraftExpress

His intensity level can be incredibly low here at times, as he loses his focus easily, doesn't get in a stance, shows poor technique on closeouts, and will look very lazy getting back on defense. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/markelle-fultz-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/ ©DraftExpress

So that's what I'm talking about. There's a lot more there if you care to read it.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Well, I read the Draft Express article, and it seemed they had concerns. I also watched a few games, and wasn't that impressed. Here's a couple quotes;

He has a very casual approach to the game, which manifests itself on both ends of the floor, and makes him look like he's operating at half speed at times. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/markelle-fultz-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/ ©DraftExpress

His intensity level can be incredibly low here at times, as he loses his focus easily, doesn't get in a stance, shows poor technique on closeouts, and will look very lazy getting back on defense. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/markelle-fultz-nba-draft-scouting-report-and-video-analysis-5832/ ©DraftExpress

So that's what I'm talking about. There's a lot more there if you care to read it.
Things like this can be read multiple ways and in this case may simply reflect their opinion of the player. Does he look casual because he's only working at half-speed or is he going at half-speed because he has a casual approach? Are they mistaking calmness, awareness, and easy athleticism for casualness?

I haven't seen him enough to really comment either way. It's fine if they're sticking to stuff like the second quote, which features tangible analysis. The first quote reads like the standard JD Drew criticism.
 

chilidawg

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Things like this can be read multiple ways and in this case may simply reflect their opinion of the player. Does he look casual because he's only working at half-speed or is he going at half-speed because he has a casual approach? Are they mistaking calmness, awareness, and easy athleticism for casualness?

I haven't seen him enough to really comment either way. It's fine if they're sticking to stuff like the second quote, which features tangible analysis. The first quote reads like the standard JD Drew criticism.
My original point was that there were enough concerns that you'd want to look at him closely in interviews and individual workouts, not that the concerns should disqualify him. His context certainly makes it difficult to sort all that out. I think that's reasonable, given both the article and what I've seen from him in games.
 

DannyDarwinism

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What are you talking about? He dragged that team on his back and all anyone talked about was how invested he was in their success, how unlike say a Simmons he didn't check out once it was clear they'd miss the tourney. The only negative I've ever heard on Fultz is that his defensive effort was inconsistent, but honestly I'm far less worried about that in a guy carrying a massive offensive load on a terrible team than from guys who have smaller roles on teams that should be good (cough BALL cough).
His issues staying in front of quick guards are pretty obvious and will be exacerbated when he's forced to play man at the next level, but Ball is leading the UCLA starters in DRPM and is second to the 7-footer Welsh in DRtg, which jibes with the common scouting report that he's still a good team defender even while he's limited one-on-one.

But like you, I'm not particularly worried about Fultz's D, for the reasons you lay out. He has all the tools, and from everything I've read, he's very coachable. I still think there's a big gap between him and Jackson/Ball/Tatum, and I'll be sweating out the lottery drawing.

Here's a piece from Rafael Uehara, who typically does straightforward scouting breakdowns, that touches on how Fultz would fit in on the Celtics and some other lottery teams.
 

LondonSox

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High bball IQ, size, and awareness. I'm not sold on it as an overall defensive package (he isn't bull-strong like Kidd) but that's the gist of it from what I've read.
But he's got no lateral quickness of note, how the f is he going to stay in front of the good point guards? His anticipation and passing lane steals, sure. I mean Ucla hides him with some zone etc already. I'd like to see him against Smith or similar I think he'd eat him alive.
 

Eddie Jurak

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But he's got no lateral quickness of note, how the f is he going to stay in front of the good point guards? His anticipation and passing lane steals, sure. I mean Ucla hides him with some zone etc already. I'd like to see him against Smith or similar I think he'd eat him alive.
He may often not match up with PGs.
 

bowiac

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Ball may struggle to stay in front of a few of the truly elite athletic point guards, but not everyone is Russell Westbrook. His combination of size, effort, defensive awareness, and ability to switch makes him very promising defensively however. Off-ball, and perimeter defense are more important than ever, and those are all areas where Ball excels.

I agree that he's not going to be Chris Paul on defense, but he looks like a plus defensive prospect to me. Plus as Eddie Jurak notes, he may often end up guarding bigger/slower guys anyway. His size gives teams a lot of flexibility with whom to pair him with in the backcourt.
 

DannyDarwinism

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But he's got no lateral quickness of note, how the f is he going to stay in front of the good point guards? His anticipation and passing lane steals, sure. I mean Ucla hides him with some zone etc already. I'd like to see him against Smith or similar I think he'd eat him alive.
By most metrics and every scouting report I've read, and certainly from what I've seen, Smith is a significantly worse defensive player who was repeatedly taken apart by guys who will be lucky to be riding the pine somewhere in Turkey next year. He certainly has the lateral quickness to stay in front of guys, along with some decent strength, but a poor wingspan, average instincts and Okafor-level effort, and I think it's a fool's errand to ascribe the lack of effort to the shitshow at State because it's not like he ever even really had flashes of defensive competence. He gets by nearly entirely on his athleticism, but that's going to be much more difficult for him in the NBA. And due to his lack of size, it's not like you can hide Smith on a 3&D wing either, like you could with Ball.

Edit to add- though if you want to see Lonzo try to stay in front of a lightning-quick PG, De'Aaron Fox should be blowing by him pretty regularly two nights for now.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Ball may struggle to stay in front of a few of the truly elite athletic point guards, but not everyone is Russell Westbrook. His combination of size, effort, defensive awareness, and ability to switch makes him very promising defensively however. Off-ball, and perimeter defense are more important than ever, and those are all areas where Ball excels.

I agree that he's not going to be Chris Paul on defense, but he looks like a plus defensive prospect to me. Plus as Eddie Jurak notes, he may often end up guarding bigger/slower guys anyway. His size gives teams a lot of flexibility with whom to pair him with in the backcourt.
Sign me up for this post. Excellent recap of Ball's defense. He is a very good positional defender with great size and he is simply a step ahead of everyone on the floor consistently. My issue with drafting Ball comes down to his clinically insane father who just last night ripped his sons HS coach a new one in the media. Claiming that they lost because the coach wanted to do things his way instead of LaVar's way.
 

ALiveH

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Lavar Ball should not enter the equation when considering whether to draft Lonzo. He is a master promoter angling for attention to get endorsement deals down the road. He has the media wrapped around his finger and will likely succeed. I don't think a professionally run organization lets him and other hanger-ons into team practices or near the bench during games if they are at all disruptive.
 

Nick Kaufman

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He could take a dump on a GM's desk and shoot 3 - 40 from three in the individual workout and still wouldn't slip out of the top two.
I am not sure about that. I am positive he will still be still be able to become President of the United States however.
 
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DJnVa

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I can't tell you how happy I am politics made it into the NBA draft thread.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lavar Ball should not enter the equation when considering whether to draft Lonzo. He is a master promoter angling for attention to get endorsement deals down the road. He has the media wrapped around his finger and will likely succeed. I don't think a professionally run organization lets him and other hanger-ons into team practices or near the bench during games if they are at all disruptive.
How would they prevent his daily criticizing of the coaches and organization if they don't cater to his son? Like nearly all rookie PG's, Ball isn't going to be very good next year and likely won't play starter minutes. Do you feel that LaVar won't be a PR nightmare under these expected circumstances?

This is Richard Williams except his daughters participated in an individual sport. No team sport has ever seen a dysfunctional individual controlling his son and it comes in the social media age......it certainly isn't going to be smooth and no team is going to be able to censor him legally.
 

LondonSox

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By most metrics and every scouting report I've read, and certainly from what I've seen, Smith is a significantly worse defensive player who was repeatedly taken apart by guys who will be lucky to be riding the pine somewhere in Turkey next year. He certainly has the lateral quickness to stay in front of guys, along with some decent strength, but a poor wingspan, average instincts and Okafor-level effort, and I think it's a fool's errand to ascribe the lack of effort to the shitshow at State because it's not like he ever even really had flashes of defensive competence. He gets by nearly entirely on his athleticism, but that's going to be much more difficult for him in the NBA. And due to his lack of size, it's not like you can hide Smith on a 3&D wing either, like you could with Ball.

Edit to add- though if you want to see Lonzo try to stay in front of a lightning-quick PG, De'Aaron Fox should be blowing by him pretty regularly two nights for now.
Just to be clear I meant seeing Ball vs a Smith on the Ball defensive side. Not saying Smith is better defensively, but that he might be a good test of his ability.
One of the most likely landing places for Ball is the lakers, and his dad might shut up too there (or not).
Problem there is that Russell is not great (yet) one on one either, so one of Ball or him would be in that position.
I asked the question due to Lakers fans on twitter hitting me on Ball is an elite defensive prospect, and I don't see it near term at least.

You're right about Fox though I think he's not a lottery prospect for me, but if UCLA plays man Fox should drive a lot and will be interesting to see.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just to be clear I meant seeing Ball vs a Smith on the Ball defensive side. Not saying Smith is better defensively, but that he might be a good test of his ability.
One of the most likely landing places for Ball is the lakers, and his dad might shut up too there (or not).
Problem there is that Russell is not great (yet) one on one either, so one of Ball or him would be in that position.
I asked the question due to Lakers fans on twitter hitting me on Ball is an elite defensive prospect, and I don't see it near term at least.
This brings up a good point. LaVar "could" be doing a Jack Elway in assuring that his kid ends up with the Lakers but scaring the living shit out of the other teams considering drafting his son.

Magic, like many new leaders coming into a new situation, wants to build HIS team with HIS players to put HIS stamp on the organization. I wouldn't be surprised to see Russell traded without Ball in LA but with Ball in tow I don't see a scenario where Russell remains with the Lakers long term......and likely not there in training camp.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Just to be clear I meant seeing Ball vs a Smith on the Ball defensive side. Not saying Smith is better defensively, but that he might be a good test of his ability.
One of the most likely landing places for Ball is the lakers, and his dad might shut up too there (or not).
Problem there is that Russell is not great (yet) one on one either, so one of Ball or him would be in that position.
I asked the question due to Lakers fans on twitter hitting me on Ball is an elite defensive prospect, and I don't see it near term at least.

You're right about Fox though I think he's not a lottery prospect for me, but if UCLA plays man Fox should drive a lot and will be interesting to see.
Yeah, I agree that a Lonzo/Russell back court would have big problems stopping penetration. I don't really see that fit at all. Plus, Clarkson's a terrible defender and Randle's pretty bad as well, so I would think LA would be better off looking at pairing a versatile impact defender like Jackson with Ingram up front. I think it's pure wishful thinking of Lakers fans to claim that Ball's an elite defensive prospect. I do think he has some real strengths- and I think Bowiac's point about his weaknesses has some merit, but he's not a guy you'll be able to stick in any line-up without worrying about match-ups. Certain teams will be able to exploit him.
 

gammoseditor

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How would they prevent his daily criticizing of the coaches and organization if they don't cater to his son? Like nearly all rookie PG's, Ball isn't going to be very good next year and likely won't play starter minutes. Do you feel that LaVar won't be a PR nightmare under these expected circumstances?

This is Richard Williams except his daughters participated in an individual sport. No team sport has ever seen a dysfunctional individual controlling his son and it comes in the social media age......it certainly isn't going to be smooth and no team is going to be able to censor him legally.
Would you pass him over if you had him #1 on your board because of his father? Last Thursday Ainge was on T&R and said he has never passed over a player because of his family. Seems like a good way to end up with Jahliil Okafor instead of Kristaps Porzingis. It's not a perfect analogy, but the point is guys drafted close to one another can have huge differences in talent. If the kid himself doesn't have any question marks I think you have to take him.
 

DannyDarwinism

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"Ain't nobody thinking about no damn Lavar". Gotta admit, Stephen A. cracked me up there.

Lavar is a character man, I'll give him that. He's gotta stay on the right side of entertaining or everybody's going to get sick of his shtick fast.

And now If you'll excuse me, I have to go take some Advil and lie down in a quiet, dark room.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That's 7 minutes of my life I'll never get back. Two giant idiots yelling at each other.
Apologies. I thought by definition if you weren't inclined to be amused by any instance of Stephen A Smith getting shouted down, you would never click. I should have tagged it better.

On another more serious note, Ball is a master promoter and I am actually concerned that whatever team(s) draft his son(s) will have some headaches if he feels as if they are doing wrong by his kid(s). I actually have to believe that NBA front-offices are going to, at least, weigh his presence as a factor when considering whether to select Lonzo. Still, he is such a talent that the weight has to be very small.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is this what Donald Trump would look like as a basketball parent?

Good luck to whoever has to deal with this guy.
 

Nick Kaufman

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I didn't think that SAS said one single thing wrong in that segment. In general, he may shout a lot, but it seems to me he has reasonable takes.

From what I read about Ball's dad, I expected him to be insufferable and if I were a team, I wouldn't want anything to do with him or his kid. Surprisingly, it turns out he's got some charm that takes some of the insufferable of. There's also a smile that hints that what he says is somewhat tongue in cheek. He's a Trump-Ali combo maybe with a twinge of Colbert.
 

DJnVa

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He's like the dad that every youth soccer, baseball, basketball team has, but somehow now quite as annoying. It's a gift.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I didn't think that SAS said one single thing wrong in that segment. In general, he may shout a lot, but it seems to me he has reasonable takes.

From what I read about Ball's dad, I expected him to be insufferable and if I were a team, I wouldn't want anything to do with him or his kid. Surprisingly, it turns out he's got some charm that takes some of the insufferable of. There's also a smile that hints that what he says is somewhat tongue in cheek. He's a Trump-Ali combo maybe with a twinge of Colbert.
I'm not sure the Chino Hills coach who he crucified in the media will agree with this. Then there is this quote.....

"I run Chino Hills! I run UCLA, about to run the NBA!’"


Good Lord.
 

amfox1

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Declared for the draft, signing with an agent:

Dwayne Bacon, Florida State
Lonzo Ball, UCLA
Juwan Evans, Oklahoma State
Markelle Fultz, Washington
Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
L.J. Peak, Georgetown
Ivan Rabb, California
Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State
Dennis Smith, Jr., NC State
Jayson Tatum, Duke

Declared but won't hire agent:

Deng Adel, Louisville
Jarrett Allen, Texas
Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall
Jeffrey Carroll, Oklahoma State
John Collins, Wake Forest
B.J. Johnson, LaSalle
Jaylen Johnson, Louisville
Kerem Kanter, Green Bay
Marcus Keene, Central Michigan
Kyle Kuzma, Utah
Eric Mika, BYU
Donovan Mitchell, Louisville
Semi Ojeleye, SMU
Cam Oliver, Nevada
Corey Sanders, Rutgers
Jaren Sina, George Washington
Trevor Thompson, Ohio State
Thomas Wilder, Western Michigan
Omer Yurtseven, NC State
 
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rhopkins2323

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If Fox could shoot he'd be the #1 pick.
He is tough isn't he? Trying to keep him in front is impossible. He has great change of pace and direction. Pretty good vision and is a pest on D.

I know his 3FG% is horrible, but he's a decent FT shooter at 73%. His form isn't bad so if you trusted his shot would come around in the next 3-5 years, where do you draft him? As a GM that's how you have to approach it. I haven't been able to figure out where I'd slot him.
 

chilidawg

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He is tough isn't he? Trying to keep him in front is impossible. He has great change of pace and direction. Pretty good vision and is a pest on D.

I know his 3FG% is horrible, but he's a decent FT shooter at 73%. His form isn't bad so if you trusted his shot would come around in the next 3-5 years, where do you draft him? As a GM that's how you have to approach it. I haven't been able to figure out where I'd slot him.
Shooting well tonight, and I agree his form looks good. I think he's in the 5-6 range, I buy on the notion he's shot will come around.
 

Cellar-Door

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Ball struggling tonight UK not letting him take that stepback to the left and he has no plan B if he doesn't get to the rim.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yep, some of the concerns about him are on display tonight and he has looked flustered. Reminds me of how he looked against USC when Melton's length and quickness knocked him off his game.

Fox, on the other hand, has done whatever he has wanted to. If you believe in his shot, the sky's the limit with his speed and body control.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Shooting well tonight, and I agree his form looks good. I think he's in the 5-6 range, I buy on the notion he's shot will come around.
Fox has been flying under the radar all season. Ball has been dropping the past week or two in my mind due to off the court stuff (I don't buy the notion that LaVar won't be a pain and distraction as the media will be feeding off him). I also don't believe Fox will be a Rondo/Elfrid-level shooter......he has good mechanics and is a solid FT shooter for his age. Many of Ball's deficiencies were on display last night and while it was a small sample it was a head to head matchup won handily by a fantastic player in Fox.

Where to slot PG's is much easier after the lottery once you see where the PG-less teams are slotted. I'd include the Lakers in that list as I feel Russell (and others) will be moved by the Lakers so Magic can put his stamp on that roster. I expect a full makeover in LA much like the Wizards makeover early in Wall's career........funny how Nick Young always seems to be involved in these trainwreck dysfunctional teams.
 

Kliq

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Fox is a better athlete but last night watching him flip in all those shots and turn the corner on defenders he reminded me a lot of Tony Parker.
 

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Good player but not top 5. I'm still taking Markelle Fultz.
Obviously you take Fultz before Fox but I think the latter has clearly moved ahead of Dennis Smith in the PG pecking order. Feel like Fox would be perfect for a team like Phoenix so if they fall to 4 or 5, I could see them taking Fox over Tatum. A Fox/Booker backcourt would be electric.
 

LondonSox

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Fox can't shoot. At all.
The fact Ucla can't defend a basic pick and roll is the issue.
Ball is a better off ball defender for me anyway but the one thing with ball in the pick and roll is to dare him to shoot the pull up. Ucla was going over (badly) every time! I have literally no idea why you would do that.
I don't know that gives you much insight as a result. Ball didn't adjust, but coaching? Fox still can't shoot.
Fox for me is barely top 10.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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maybe it was me but Fox looks bigger than 6'3". in fact at times he looked taller than Ball.

Fox can get anywhere he wants on the court and can play through contact. if I had to guess right now, I'd say he's going to have a better pro career than Ball.

Ball's lack of side-to-side quickness would scare me defensively if I were a GM.