You really think Kraft would say no if BB wants to trade Brady? I think it's unlikely given the circumstances, but never say never really. Brady's decline should be steep but it's tough to say when. There simply haven't been that many QBs that have been starters into their 40s... the only other one besides Favre might be Warren Moon.
2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma
- Thread starter bakahump
- Start date
When all is said and done, I think there will be two major counter-examples to the the theme of Belichick forgoing emotion when making business decisions. Namely:
1. Brady will be given a bit more rope towards the end
2. Belichick has predetermined his asking price as no less than a 1st, 2nd and 4th (DFG penalties + Jimmy draft pick), each at better draft slots than the Patriots' lost picks, for Jimmy G. Just as a fuck you.
The two themes are connected: Belichick knows/feels Brady's got 3-5 years left, and accepts that 2019-2022 will feature reduced but still Top 10 QB play from a goddamn legend.
BB sets the bar for a JG trade super high, sacrificing Schefter in the process - collateral from DFG (Because FUCK YOU).
Gets Cleveland to bite for 2017 #12, 2017 or 2018 2nd rounder, and now they are just juggling the 2017 4th round selection.
Wins two more Superbowls with TB, and Jimmy G ultimately becomes heir apparent after signing as a free agent (with a nice hometown discount - TB's final roster legacy) in 2022 at age 32.
It's not that far fetched, assuming points 1 and 2 are true....
1. Brady will be given a bit more rope towards the end
2. Belichick has predetermined his asking price as no less than a 1st, 2nd and 4th (DFG penalties + Jimmy draft pick), each at better draft slots than the Patriots' lost picks, for Jimmy G. Just as a fuck you.
The two themes are connected: Belichick knows/feels Brady's got 3-5 years left, and accepts that 2019-2022 will feature reduced but still Top 10 QB play from a goddamn legend.
BB sets the bar for a JG trade super high, sacrificing Schefter in the process - collateral from DFG (Because FUCK YOU).
Gets Cleveland to bite for 2017 #12, 2017 or 2018 2nd rounder, and now they are just juggling the 2017 4th round selection.
Wins two more Superbowls with TB, and Jimmy G ultimately becomes heir apparent after signing as a free agent (with a nice hometown discount - TB's final roster legacy) in 2022 at age 32.
It's not that far fetched, assuming points 1 and 2 are true....
As far as I'm concerned, if BB says "I'm trading Brady" and Kraft says no, you'd see BB resign that day.
BB has absolute, full control of the roster. Kraft vetoing him would be a franchise-destroying move, and I'm pretty sure Kraft knows that.
Brady makes nowhere near as many dumb mistakes as Favre made, but he also has nowhere near the physical skills that Favre had.
Like Manning, it's going to take a lot less decline than it took Favre for defense not to respect him deep, and once that happens, the zones collapse, and he's done.
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Respecting Brady's deep ball is far more about the receivers in this system. Always has been. Most of the deep balls he completes are to wide open receivers or to Gronk who can win just about any match up.
According to many, Brady hasn't had a deep ball for the last 10 years. He's improved over the last couple but he had 'no deep ball' since about 2009. He's been OK since then. I don't know why anyone compares Brady to Manning. Manning couldn't throw any ball and had major neck injuries. The comparison isn't relevant.
Manning's neck injury happened in 2011, and he won the MVP in 2013. He was still fantastic in 2014, was probably the worst quarterback in football in 2015, and then out of the league.
The neck injury didn't end his career - his leg and core strength going did. He stopped being able to throw the deep seam pass and the 15 yard out, defenses collapsed in, and he was done. It didn't matter how good his reactions were or his decision making was - because there were too many defenders around the ball all the time.
It's not going to matter how good Brady's decisions are, or how smart he is, or how mistake free he plays when his core strength, or his legs, or anything else goes - and it is going to go, and it will go in the next couple of years.
I'm not talking about chucking the ball deep - I'm talking about the deep seams to Gronk, and the passes along the sideline - the stuff where the ball fluttering just a little bit means a turnover.
Was Manning the workout fanatic Brady is? He never had the build or physique of someone who put time in the gym, though I suppose Brady doesn't either.
I don't think it's that digital. If Belichick wanted to move Brady and Robert Kraft didn't, I would hope they'd call a meeting including Benjamin and Josh (need a fifth to break a tie?), hash it out and hopefully come to an agreement on what to do. Brady is that important to the franchise. Or am I being naive? I know the Yankees let Babe Ruth go after a year when he didn't look done (.985 OPS and 5.1 WAR) but he was done for the Braves the next year.
Also Brady didn't have to go to Europe for treatment and then was connected with an HGH ring. I don't believe any comparison to Manning in his later years applies. Same thing with Favre who didn't take care of himself and had a 10 cent head throwing INTs once his arm couldn't carry him anymore.
TB12 may seem like a cult but his clinics have been clean so far.
They do this now, we saw it during A Football Life. BB isnt dumb, he knows he's not just going to walk in and say "Brady is playing at a high level, but Im trading him" and expect Kraft to go "OK boss"
BB would not be stupid enough to insist on trading TB on the pain of walking if Kraft said no, when --
1. TB is Babe fucking Ruth of this franchise;
2. You are not getting a haul for TB. You're just not. He is 40 years old.
3. If you take BB at his word, he has 5 years left max. He said he's not going to be doing this when he is 70. See no reason not to take him at his word.
It's not coming to this. JFC.
1. TB is Babe fucking Ruth of this franchise;
2. You are not getting a haul for TB. You're just not. He is 40 years old.
3. If you take BB at his word, he has 5 years left max. He said he's not going to be doing this when he is 70. See no reason not to take him at his word.
It's not coming to this. JFC.
People keep referencing the Marv Levy quote. That was 8 years ago. BB at his age is still winning Super Bowls and the game clearly hasn't passed him by. I'm not saying he will coach until he's 80 but he's not showing any signs of slowing down. I don't see how that quote is relevant at this point.
Exactly. JFC is right. If Brady is playing at a high enough to level to garner anything on the trade market, he's not going anywhere. Kraft won't allow it and BB will not retire out of protest, to say nothing of the fact I don't think BB would even make the argument. He is quite literally a unique snowflake in this scenario. If he's playing poorly enough that it's a legit consideration to promote JG over him, I think Brady retires before being sent to Siberia. He's too competitive and he's too self aware, imo.
Brady will never play a game for another franchise. I don't put much stock into what he said in an interview a few years ago, it's the type of 'aw shucks', humble deflection he handles most things with.
Why wouldn't it still be relevant? I don't doubt for a second he realizes he would never have been close to this successful if not for Brady. I used to think he'd give it a couple more seasons after Brady retired to kind of 'prove' how much it was his coaching as opposed to Brady's ability, but no one thought Brady would still be playing this well for this long. I think now more than ever, they exit stage left together.
Let's say Brady plays really well (all-pro level) again in 2017, which is a reasonable assumption. It won't last, but let's say he does it. Let's say also that JG remains with the Pats for 2017 as the backup. Let's also say that JG is the person BB thinks is the right guy to be QB for the team for the foreseeable future. And therefore, BB is willing to trade Brady. Not gonna get fleeced, but let's say he's open to it.
What kind of team would trade for a soon-to-be-41-but-still-really-good Tom Brady? Only a team that has pretty much all the pieces in place to play for a Super Bowl title the next two years.
If this were to happen THIS offseason, who might qualify?
Houston - Playoff team, with some really good players but one MAJOR deficiency - QB. Their head coach also has years of experience with Brady, and JJ Watt might only have a few good years left.
Arizona - Playoff team with a not-so-great QB in Palmer, but lots of talent, just a year removed from being in the NFCCG.
Kansas City - Very good team, went 12-4 this year, but has a very average starting QB.
Minnesota - 8-8, possible playoff team...could Brady take them to the next level?
I think that's about it. But among those teams, maybe there's one or two that would really think that Brady could put them over the top. If so, what would one of these teams be willing to pay?
How much is a 2-year window at a legit chance for a Super Bowl championship worth to these downtrodden franchises that suddenly are on the cusp of potentially winning it all? And what price would be sufficient for BB to make such a move?
Pure speculation on my part but I wonder if BB and Brady are gearing up for one last season then turning this over the best possible way with very competent replacements. It is interesting that both Patricia and McDaniels turned down HC jobs very quickly to remain in NE.
If they don't trade Jimmy G could the plan be for both Brady and Bill to retire and turn the team over to Jimmy, Josh and Matt?
If they don't trade Jimmy G could the plan be for both Brady and Bill to retire and turn the team over to Jimmy, Josh and Matt?
If you put 2018 Brady (assuming Brady is still 75% as good as he was in 2016) on Houston with a defense approaching what they had in 2016, they would beat the Pats with Jimmy G.
Why would BB give a team that he is competing with the means to beat him?
On the NFC side I agree with the premise.
Brady in 2018 or 2019 could still play at a reasonable level for the Patriots.
I think it would be at a noticeably reduced level for another team: new scheme, new coach, new receivers, etc.
(This is has been said before but seems lost in today's go around regarding TB's future.)
I think it would be at a noticeably reduced level for another team: new scheme, new coach, new receivers, etc.
(This is has been said before but seems lost in today's go around regarding TB's future.)
Really doubt Brady is thinking of 2017 as his last season based on everything he has said and done.
Because he might feel confident enough that the Pats could win that matchup, OR... he could think, ok, so I might not have the best shot THIS year against that team, but I've set myself up for another great 8 year stretch with JG at the helm, so it's worth it in the long run.
That makes sense.
I also believe that BB is enough of football history buff that he realizes that what he has with Brady will not be replicated with Jimmy G or anyone else, but he never wants the Pats to fall back to a last place team.
Exactly what part of Brady's game or physique is going to degenerate in the next couple years that will lead him to worsen? I'm talking specific sports science stuff. Mayweather was the best boxer in the world at 39, and that takes far more endurance and reflexes than being an NFL QB. Hopkins held a title at 50. Some of the best lifters in the world are in there late 30s and 40s. I know it's happened with other guys who don't keep up on diet and exercise like Tom or whose game was more speed based, but I'm just having trouble seeing what particular skills or physical abilities central to his success are going to erode and why.
Brady is not getting traded. Nor is he taking games off. Nor is his game going to drop off to the point where he looks like Manning in his last year.
The most predictable endpoint is an injury or series of injuries from which he can't recover.
The most predictable endpoint is an injury or series of injuries from which he can't recover.
Most likely in my opinion (in only not exactly sports science terms).
Week to week wear and recovery. I don't know how often boxers fight. Don't they (their managment) choose the timing? It's different than almost every week for 4 (or 5) months, no?
Also, as an extension: specific small injury recovery. Just an extension of the wear and tear thing but, an ankle or knee tweak might just not settle down for a 40-something guy.
I think he could manage continued marginal reduction in muscle strength, if that's even medically valid. He can't be 'weak', but he could diminish some.
Would be userful to invest in o-line help...
Add Vinny Testaverde.
And Doug Flutie is on the borderline; he replaced Brees as the starter for a while in San Diego in 2003 (age 41). And Matt Hasselbeck in Indy at 40 after Luck went down.
Len Dawson, Charlie Conerly, Sonny Jurgenson, Unitas, Brad Johnson all got a few starts at age 40.
Beyond that you're into guys who got a start here or there after 40 but weren't really the starter. Earl Morrall had a couple of spot starts in his 40s. Joe Ferguson, Vince Evans, Steve Deberg...
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I'm not suggesting he will be. There was a previous poster (a well respected one at that) that surmised that the Pats wouldn't get a "haul" for Brady and I was simply asking IF the Pats were thinking about trading him (not my premise but someone else's) what kind of team might be interested and what a reasonable return might be.
Relax E5.
So, if the Patriots are absolutely not trading Brady, turning down a major haul for Jimmy G would seem pretty silly, right? The risk of dropoff or injury is worth more than, say, the 12th pick this year and a 2nd next? Seems nuts, but what do I know.
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I feel like the burden of proof should be on the person asserting that an elite athlete is not going to decline in his 40's.
Remember that comeback sideline throw to Hogan in OT? 5% less arm strength and that's a pick-6.
When the arm strength goes, players try to compensate, then other shit breaks down. It really doesn't take much for a fine tuned machine to break.
I guess I'm asking what indicates his arm strength must decline it his early 40s? Lots of people maintain strength at that age, especially with proper diet and supplementation and "supplementation." Hell, I saw Mendelson bench press 1,000 pounds at 40. Pretty sure Brady can keep making those throws if healthy.
Speculation only, but I see only one scenario here that fits the known facts:
Brady is worried about his mom's health declining and has told BB/Kraft that he'll need time off if things get bad.
Brady is worried about his mom's health declining and has told BB/Kraft that he'll need time off if things get bad.
Jason La CanforaVerified account @JasonLaCanfora 22m22 minutes ago
So the Pats don't pick til 72 in 3rd round and have just 2 picks in first 117 selections and Browns have a ton. But nothing to see here
So the Pats don't pick til 72 in 3rd round and have just 2 picks in first 117 selections and Browns have a ton. But nothing to see here
I mean, I agree that I don't see a realistic path to Brady being traded, but to your first point:
This ignores that they are a young team and have already had their draft. In March.
Inevitably, when the draft occurs, someone will grade them D+ or C minus, primarily because they did not have many picks.
That comment will be worse than Jason's -- but not by much.
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I said he's worried about his family, and people treat this like a bad thing?
Why do I have a feeling the Patriots eventually trade Jimmy and next year's first for Cleveland's 1st AND 12th, and draft Garrett first overall and then trade the 12th for 2-3 second round picks where they then draft Nathan Peterman and a "Wait, who???" type player?
Who knows, but I'm calling my shot now! ;-)
Who knows, but I'm calling my shot now! ;-)