AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup

Van Everyman

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Except that no one is going to remember degree of difficulty in a playoff game. This is a binary system. Matt Ryan lit up the Seahawks. Rodgers lit up the #1 NFC seed. If Brady wants his dick sucked again like the media does with those two, he's going to have to light up the Steelers.
I think you vastly overestimate how much Tom Brady cares about what the media thinks.
 

simplyeric

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I think you vastly overestimate how much Tom Brady cares about what the media thinks.
He gets his "dick sucked" by Giselle. Probably better than Felger or Cowherd.
Indeed...
I think we know that Brady would prefer to have an outwardly mediocre game (on his part) and win, than to throw 4 td's and lose.
(although he probably doesn't want to have bad stats because he's having the shit knocked out of him all day)
 

Van Everyman

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I also think we are probably underestimating the loss of Gronk here. The Pats are unquestionably in a better position at the skill positions than they were in 2013 with Austin Collie. But in addition to Floyd showing a lack of sync with Brady last week, you saw Amendola shaking off the rust on a few plays.

Most of all, the team leaned heavily on Lewis for the first time all year. That was partly out of necessity, I suspect, given the Texans' scheme and the fact that Blount was ailing. And a taking-off-the-training-wheels Lewis is certainly miles better than reanimating the corpse of Steven Jackson. But changing the playmakers of your offense is not something you would prefer to be doing in the playoffs -- which I think showed in the middling results.

Again, the good news is that they have a lot of weapons -- none as good as Gronk to be sure, but all of pretty high quality. There are no Brandon Boldins or Austin Collies in this mix. Hopefully, they can utilize Blount and White more this weekend -- and get more out of Bennett.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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Brady sounded raspy and appeared to be potentially sick to the beat reporters at his press conference today.




 

heavyde050

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Sure. There are always reasons for a bad game. I mean, last week he had at least a half-dozen throwaways and one of his INTs was a ball that went through Floyd's hands. It happens.

Brady is a great quarterback - I think the greatest of all time. And there's nobody I'd rather have leading my team in the playoffs. But it's not like he's not capable of having a pretty sub-par game in the playoffs, for whatever reason. It has happened quite a bit over his illustrious career.
Agreed
 

Saints Rest

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Yeah but many of the more recent "poor" games have been much more the fault of some combination of poor offensive line play and/or going against good to historically great defenses
On a scale of a difficulty, Brady's fourth quarter shredding of the Legion of Boom was a virtuoso performance.
I mean Brady was awful against the Ravens in 2009, no excuses (also the Chargers in 2006 and 2007).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/
This first sentence is really salient.

Except for a decent stretch of the 2nd quarter last week when Houston did something new and brilliant (lining up two extremely quick DE's in the A gaps), the O Line has been pretty solid all year. I don't think Pitt has the personnel to replicate that approach, and I think the Pats adjusted quite nicely to mitigate the Texans' approach by the second half.

And I think it is safe to say that Pitt is not a "historically great defense" by any stretch, either collectively or in any one area.

Brady could come out and crap the bed, but I think that is pretty well down on the probabilities of things that might happen this week. Many people have noted that this is a different Pitt team than they showed in Week 7, most notably because of Big Ben. But in that game, TB12 wen 19/26 for 222 yds and 2 TDs, no sacks, no INT's, and a rating of 124.2. I don't think much has changed for Pitt defensively so I'm really not too worried about their defense being the difference maker. Reminder: That game was also at Heinz Field.
 

heavyde050

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This first sentence is really salient.

Except for a decent stretch of the 2nd quarter last week when Houston did something new and brilliant (lining up two extremely quick DE's in the A gaps), the O Line has been pretty solid all year. I don't think Pitt has the personnel to replicate that approach, and I think the Pats adjusted quite nicely to mitigate the Texans' approach by the second half.

And I think it is safe to say that Pitt is not a "historically great defense" by any stretch, either collectively or in any one area.

Brady could come out and crap the bed, but I think that is pretty well down on the probabilities of things that might happen this week. Many people have noted that this is a different Pitt team than they showed in Week 7, most notably because of Big Ben. But in that game, TB12 wen 19/26 for 222 yds and 2 TDs, no sacks, no INT's, and a rating of 124.2. I don't think much has changed for Pitt defensively so I'm really not too worried about their defense being the difference maker. Reminder: That game was also at Heinz Field.
Really well said.
 

PedroKsBambino

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This first sentence is really salient.

Except for a decent stretch of the 2nd quarter last week when Houston did something new and brilliant (lining up two extremely quick DE's in the A gaps), the O Line has been pretty solid all year. I don't think Pitt has the personnel to replicate that approach, and I think the Pats adjusted quite nicely to mitigate the Texans' approach by the second half.

And I think it is safe to say that Pitt is not a "historically great defense" by any stretch, either collectively or in any one area.

Brady could come out and crap the bed, but I think that is pretty well down on the probabilities of things that might happen this week. Many people have noted that this is a different Pitt team than they showed in Week 7, most notably because of Big Ben. But in that game, TB12 wen 19/26 for 222 yds and 2 TDs, no sacks, no INT's, and a rating of 124.2. I don't think much has changed for Pitt defensively so I'm really not too worried about their defense being the difference maker. Reminder: That game was also at Heinz Field.
To be fair, Bud Dupree has been added to the defense since week 7, and he's been an impact guy. So that matters, though your larger point is certainly true of Brady vs Steelers defenses over time.
 

Stitch01

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Except that no one is going to remember degree of difficulty in a playoff game. This is a binary system. Matt Ryan lit up the Seahawks. Rodgers lit up the #1 NFC seed. If Brady wants his dick sucked again like the media does with those two, he's going to have to light up the Steelers.
Thus answering my game thread question "who would be dumb enough to watch Undisputed"?
 

KiltedFool

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Significant changes to the Steelers personnel since Week 7. Not just Dupree. Timmons is the only LB that was full time in that game that is now. Shazier was coming back from injury and was part of a rotation. Jones, Chickillo, Williams and Moats got roughly half the snaps in rotation with some Harrison in. Now it's Harrison, Dupree, Timmons, Shazier full time. Davis is now a starter at safety.

There has also been a good bit of maturation from the young guys in the intervening weeks.

It'll be an uphill slog for the Steelers, always has been. High capability but high variance across the board, especially on offense.
 

Marciano490

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Is there no positioning changes that can be done to counteract Bell's wait and see approach? Maybe drop the LBs back a yard or find a sweet spot where the Steelers wouldn't counter by just throwing quick slants over the middle? I'm sure better minds than mine have tried and failed to shut him down, but I've never heard it discussed on TV and it always seems like he waits for everyone to mass at the LOS, then finds a crease and gets his 5-6 yards before the dbs come up.
 

lexrageorge

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Some comparison points:

Peyton Manning: 27 playoff games; 11 were below 80, and 5 between 80 and 89.9.
Eli Manning: 12 games, 4 below 8, and 3 more in the 80's.
Russell Wilson: 12 games, 4 below 80
Ben Roethlisberger: 19 playoff games: 9 below 80, and 1 in the 80's.
Drew Brees: 11 playoff games: 1 below 80, and 2 more in the 80's.
Aaron Rodgers: 15 playoff games: 4 below 80 (none in the 80's).
Julian Edelman: 158.3 career playoff rating

And some comparisons to the historical greats:

Joe Montana: 23 playoff games, 6 below 80, and 3 between 80 and 89.9.
Brett Favre: 24 playoff games, 8 below 80, and 4 in the 80's.
Troy Aikman: 16 playoff games, 7 below 80 (none in the 80's)
John Elway: 22 playoff games, 9 below 80, and 4 in the 80's.
Dan Marino: 18 playoff games, 10 below 80, and 2 in the 80's.
Tony Eason: 5 playoff games, 1 below 80

At a quick look, Brady's percentages of "bad" games in the playoffs is not at all far from either the current top tier QB's or the historical greats. Sure, by some measures, Wilson, Brees, Rodgers may look like better "playoff QB's"; but none of them have played in half the number of the playoff games as Brady, so I'm not sure that would be a valid conclusion.

There were also 6 playoff games were Brady was sacked 3 or more times; he's 2-4 in those 6, with 2 of those losses including his 2 worst games by rating: the 33-14 blowout loss to the Ravens in the wild card round, and last season's loss to Denver.

BTW, cutting or trading Brady in 2017 would result in the Pats taking a $27M dead money charge, so yeah, Cowherd is just throwing crap up there to get some clicks.
 
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Blue Monkey

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Brady sounded raspy and appeared to be potentially sick to the beat reporters at his press conference today.




Just watched the press conference. Something is definitely up with him. Looks like he stayed up all night or hangover. Low energy and dark under his eyes. I hope it's nothing serious.
 

Morning Woodhead

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Some comparison points:

Peyton Manning: 27 playoff games; 16 below 90, and 11 below 80.
Eli Manning: 12 games, 7 below 90, 4 below 80
Russell Wilson: 12 games, 4 below 80 (none in the 90's)
Ben Roethlisberger: 19 playoff games: 10 below 90, and 9 below 80.
Drew Brees: 11 playoff games: 3 below 90, and 1 below 80.
Aaron Rodgers: 15 playoff games: 4 below 80 (none in the 80's).
Julian Edelman: 158.3 career playoff rating

And some comparisons to the historical greats:

Joe Montana: 23 playoff games, 9 below 90, 6 below 80
Brett Favre: 24 playoff games, 12 below 90, 8 below 80
Troy Aikman: 16 playoff games, 7 below 80 (none in the 80's)
John Elway: 22 playoff games, 13 below 90, 9 below 80
Dan Marino: 18 playoff games, 12 below 90, 10 below 80
Tony Eason: 5 playoff games, 1 below 90

At a quick look, Brady's percentages of "bad" games in the playoffs is not at all far from either the current top tier QB's or the historical greats. Sure, by some measures, Wilson, Brees, Rodgers may look like better "playoff QB's"; but none of them have played in half the number of the playoff games as Brady, so I'm not sure that would be a valid conclusion.

There were also 6 playoff games were Brady was sacked 3 or more times; he's 2-4 in those 6, with 2 of those losses including his 2 worst games by rating: the 33-14 blowout loss to the Ravens in the wild card round, and last season's loss to Denver.

BTW, cutting or trading Brady in 2017 would result in the Pats taking a $27M dead money charge, so yeah, Cowherd is just throwing crap up there to get some clicks.

Am I reading this correctly? Manning has never had a playoff game with a rating above 90? Same for Big Ben? Also clearly this means Edelman is the greatest QB in playoff history. Imagine the haul we could get for Brady AND Jimmy G.
 

DJnVa

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Just watched the press conference. Something is definitely up with him. Looks like he stayed up all night or hangover. Low energy and dark under his eyes. I hope it's nothing serious.
Seems weird that the Pats put him out there for a press conference if he was sick. Unless not putting him out there would cause questions, but if reporters could see him practicing then perhaps not.
 

tims4wins

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Am I reading this correctly? Manning has never had a playoff game with a rating above 90? Same for Big Ben? Also clearly this means Edelman is the greatest QB in playoff history. Imagine the haul we could get for Brady AND Jimmy G.
No, it is saying 11 of the 16 below 90 were below 80
 

KiltedFool

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Am I reading this correctly? Manning has never had a playoff game with a rating above 90? Same for Big Ben? Also clearly this means Edelman is the greatest QB in playoff history. Imagine the haul we could get for Brady AND Jimmy G.

Reading it wrong, though it's worded awkwardly which doesn't help. Big Ben for example, he's had 9 playoff games below 80 and one (Bal 1-18-09) below 90, i.e. 84.8. It's just a little misleading, easy to take the 10 and the 9 and add them and get 19 games below 90, though that double counts the games under 80. He's had four games over 100, peak is 148.7, five games in the 90s.

edit:
typed too slow beaten by t4w
 

CantKeepmedown

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Has he had to do any media since Sat night? Hopefully it's something that he's just getting over. I guess we can assume that it's a good thing that he's at least there. Can't imagine they would risk him passing something on to other players.
 

lexrageorge

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Am I reading this correctly? Manning has never had a playoff game with a rating above 90? Same for Big Ben? Also clearly this means Edelman is the greatest QB in playoff history. Imagine the haul we could get for Brady AND Jimmy G.
I reworded my chart somewhat to make it more clear. Peyton Manning had 11 games below 80, and 5 in the 80's.
 

ObstructedView

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Brady looked and sounded the way I felt last week coming off a stomach virus and battling a cold. If he is under the weather, I'm glad he's got three more full days and four nights to recover.
 

Kliq

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I was talking to two-non Pats fans at work today and they both think Pittsburgh is going to win. Their explanations were that Pittsburgh was "tougher" and their defense was "really good, physical and better than the Patriots." The Steelers, more than any other team I can think of, have a reputation that sticks with their franchise regardless of the actual quality of the team.

The Pittsburgh defense was 11th in TPA (Pats were first), 15th against the pass and were 12th against the run. By all accounts they are a very average defense. But for some people that doesn't matter, they are the Pittsburgh Steelers so they HAVE to be really tough and physical and have a strong defense.
 

jsinger121

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2004 AFC Championship Game

The Patriots went 14-2 in 2004, but they had to travel to face the 15-1 Steelers in the AFC title game, who had beaten the Patriots already that season. That day, Brady was sick with a 103-degree fever that required him to take liquids through an IV the night before. But nothing — not the illness, not the single-digit temperatures, nothing — was going to stop Brady from suiting up in this game, and he came out firing. Brady connected with Deion Branch on a picture-perfect 60-yard deep ball in the first quarter, which gave the Patriots a 10-0 lead. Brady thew another touchdown to David Givens later in the first half, and a Rodney Harrison pick-six turned it into a laugher.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/01/15/tom-bradys-historic-postseason-career/
 

RedOctober3829

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I was talking to two-non Pats fans at work today and they both think Pittsburgh is going to win. Their explanations were that Pittsburgh was "tougher" and their defense was "really good, physical and better than the Patriots." The Steelers, more than any other team I can think of, have a reputation that sticks with their franchise regardless of the actual quality of the team.

The Pittsburgh defense was 11th in TPA (Pats were first), 15th against the pass and were 12th against the run. By all accounts they are a very average defense. But for some people that doesn't matter, they are the Pittsburgh Steelers so they HAVE to be really tough and physical and have a strong defense.
Their defense has gotten better as the year has gone by so some of those numbers may be deceiving. In Week 7 when these two teams played, Bud Dupree was on IR and Harrison played less than half the snaps. The defense has evolved.
 

moondog80

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2004 AFC Championship Game

The Patriots went 14-2 in 2004, but they had to travel to face the 15-1 Steelers in the AFC title game, who had beaten the Patriots already that season. That day, Brady was sick with a 103-degree fever that required him to take liquids through an IV the night before. But nothing — not the illness, not the single-digit temperatures, nothing — was going to stop Brady from suiting up in this game, and he came out firing. Brady connected with Deion Branch on a picture-perfect 60-yard deep ball in the first quarter, which gave the Patriots a 10-0 lead. Brady thew another touchdown to David Givens later in the first half, and a Rodney Harrison pick-six turned it into a laugher.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/01/15/tom-bradys-historic-postseason-career/
Corey Dillon's 25 yard TD run, punctuated by throwing the ball at one of the "Steelers Nation" (or whatever) signs, is in the top 5 of my favorite Patriots plays of all time.
 

tims4wins

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Reiss

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was so stoic and serious during his Wednesday news conference, keeping his answers clipped, it sparked a final question from a reporter about his well-being.

Are you under the weather?

“I’m good,” Brady responded, shortly before walking off the podium and preparing for a rainy practice in advance of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
 

RedOctober3829

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Pats injury report. All were limited. New additions are Hogan with the thigh, Sheard and Bolden with knees, and Hightower with the shoulder. Will be interested to see if the report gets smaller as the week goes on as anybody dinged up probably got full contact periods off today as they did go full pads.

Mitchell--knee
Amendola--ankle
Hightower--shoulder
Hogan--thigh
Sheard--knee
Bolden--knee
Bennett--knee
 

bigq

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Roethlisberger's post season performance is marked by a significant increase in interception rate compared to his regular season statistics. I hope to see him continue that trend and throw a couple of picks to the Pats on Sunday.
 

Norm Siebern

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Jesse James is underrated, so much so that some on SoSH didn't even know his name. We all watched years and years of the Rapist throwing to his binky tight end Heath Miller on third down for important conversions. Even if Green doesn't go on Sunday, don't fall asleep on James. He will be an important part of the Stillers' game plan.

Speaking of which, at strong safety it amazes me how much Patrick Chung has improved as a pro football player. I had him pegged as a two years and out has been. Was I ever wrong. His work against the TE will be crucial.
 

tims4wins

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Jesse James is underrated, so much so that some on SoSH didn't even know his name. We all watched years and years of the Rapist throwing to his binky tight end Heath Miller on third down for important conversions. Even if Green doesn't go on Sunday, don't fall asleep on James. He will be an important part of the Stillers' game plan.

Speaking of which, at strong safety it amazes me how much Patrick Chung has improved as a pro football player. I had him pegged as a two years and out has been. Was I ever wrong. His work against the TE will be crucial.
Great points all around. James was crucial on Sunday night. I do like that matchup for Chung, though.
 

jsinger121

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James best game by far was this past weekend against the Chiefs. 39 catches on the season and provides a big target at 6'7
 

kelpapa

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Yeah, but you can't shut down everything. If they can limit Brown and Bell and stiffen up in the red zone, I think they'll live with Rogers getting 60 yards and converting a few third downs.


They've played it more by matchup the past couple seasons (Ryan / Rowe on the bigger guy, Butler on the faster / quicker guy) and Butler has primarily drawn Brown in the last two matchups, which makes sense. I think they'll do the same here, and Butler will have help on deep routes and on crossing patterns for the most part.
Saw this tweeted today. Good call on Brown.
upload_2017-1-18_20-31-42.png
 

j44thor

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Butler didn't really hold him to that rating though, Landry Jones did. AB's stats with and without Ben are significant.