AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup

DJnVa

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Huh. No one has mentioned what I would think is a major key and something that's bothered me since saturday: what if Brady has another bad game?
Can it happen? Of course.

But worrying about Tom Brady is right down near the bottom of my list.

Well that's what I'm worried about way more than brown or bell
Seems odd to me to worry more about something that rarely happens (Brady sucking back to back) versus something with a track record (Bell and Brown are really fucking good).

To each his own though.
 

dcdrew10

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Lots of talk about the Steelers pass rush. But how is their run D? I know LGBT gashed them (24 for 127, 2 TDs) in the first matchup. I know Cleveland ran all over them - over 230 yards, 7 YPC.
Mixed bag. Finished 13 in rushing yards allowed, 21st in rushing TDs allowed. Steelers held Cleveland to 33 yards in week 11. Ajayi ran for over 200 yards in the regular season game. Had 5 games (WASH, CIN, BAL, CLE, NYG) where they allowed 60 or less yards and 5 games where they allowed more than 125 yards (PHI, MIA, NE, DAL, CLE). Seems pretty middle of the road to me, not as good as they historically have been, but not the bottom of the barrel.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The Ringer wrote about Pittsburgh's pass rush today.

Apparently, they went from blitzing 25.7% of the time in the first 8 weeks then 43% of the time for the final 8 weeks. The amount they blitz has dropped back to 25.8% in the playoffs.

(https://theringer.com/nfl-playoffs-pittsburgh-steelers-pass-rush-7b0090b4a825#.33ss1mnly)
I'll be surprised if Steelers blitz as much as that article speculates--Brady has historically done great against the blitz in general and Pittsburgh's in particular and unlike the LeBeau teams (who were really built and reliant on the frequent blitz) Butler's defenses have been more balanced. I expect them to sit back and try to clog lanes and blitz by exception hoping to fool him the few times they do.
 

Saints Rest

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I'm not sure where to find stats, but my sense is that you don't beat Brady by blitzing, at least not conventionally. If he can recognize the blitz, his quick release and pile of weapons make it too easy for him to find his targets.

Teams beat Brady by pressure, whether up the middle (like Houston last week in the first half, or like the Giants in The Game that Shall Not Be Named) or on the edge (like Denver last year in the AFCCG). I don't know if Pitt has the horses to make either of those happen.

The other way teams sometimes can beat Brady is by dropping 8 and rushing 3, if those 3 can get there eventually. Take away TB's quick release options. Call this the Rex Ryan approach. But does Pitt's secondary have the ability to stay with all the receiving options over 4-5 seconds?
 

Curt S Loew

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So the Pats are scoring more than 5 points more at home than on the road, while the Steelers are scoring 6 points a game fewer on the road than at home, over the same calendar time span.
Or, both teams score more at home than on the road around the same amount.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm not sure where to find stats, but my sense is that you don't beat Brady by blitzing, at least not conventionally. If he can recognize the blitz, his quick release and pile of weapons make it too easy for him to find his targets.

Teams beat Brady by pressure, whether up the middle (like Houston last week in the first half, or like the Giants in The Game that Shall Not Be Named) or on the edge (like Denver last year in the AFCCG). I don't know if Pitt has the horses to make either of those happen.

The other way teams sometimes can beat Brady is by dropping 8 and rushing 3, if those 3 can get there eventually. Take away TB's quick release options. Call this the Rex Ryan approach. But does Pitt's secondary have the ability to stay with all the receiving options over 4-5 seconds?
You're correct in that Brady gets rattled by the rush at points. But that only works if there are press corners that can disrupt route timing. A team needs both to be at a high level to slow down the offense. Take a look at the Denver AFCCG losses and the 2010 Jets playoff loss.
 

Ed Hillel

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Shithead won't be there Sunday. He's going going, back to back to, Atlanta Atlanta.

Need a big win and "WHERE IS ROGER?" chant.
 

TheoShmeo

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I'm glad that Roger will not be in the house on Sunday.

His presence COULD have injected a side show/distraction into the equation, and I would rather there be no "wild cards."

But what a terrible, weak look for him. Viewed most charitably, he's exercising some discretion and not allowing his personal issue with the Pats to over shadow the game. But he's also telling the fans that their strong views dictate his conduct.

Again, I'm glad that piece of crap wont be in Foxboro but I think this makes him look even weaker than before. Good.
 

RedOctober3829

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Is this a game where the Patriots rush only 3 or 4 and flood the middle to stop the Steelers' crossing routes? I was thinking 2 high safeties to take away the deep ball but I have changed course on that. Obviously, they'll use multiple looks throughout the game but will the theme be to flood the middle of the field and let Butler take Brown 1-on-1?
 

djbayko

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Goodell is coddled in the warmth of his $6.5 million home and his limousine rides between the NFL offices and the Four Seasons. He's isolated from the real world and doesn't know the true passion with which this fan base detests him. Some day he will mistakenly believe the coast is clear.

With any luck, our Patriots will continue making it more and more difficult to avoid.
 

Marciano490

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Goodell is coddled in the warmth of his $6.5 million home and his limousine rides between the NFL offices and the Four Seasons. He's isolated from the real world and doesn't know the true passion with which this fan base detests him. Some day he will mistakenly believe the coast is clear.

With any luck, our Patriots will continue making it more and more difficult to avoid.
I'm surprised he doesn't get the Bettman treatment and just hear loud boos everywhere. Plus, he fined the Falcons (ridiculously lightly) recently, too.
 

Kliq

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If Goodell was unaware just how much fans dislike him, he would be in Foxborough. He isn't because he is fully aware that they will tear him apart. It is better that he isn't coming, the weaker he looks the better imo.

Houston was able to put pressure up the middle mainly because they had a pair of unique athletes in Clowney and Mericiless who could overwhelm the interior of the line with their speed but also were strong enough to deal with the bulky guards. Dupree is at his best as a speed rusher off the edge and Harrison is strong but not in the same stratosphere of the Texan guys when it comes to speed so I don't know if they could replicate that kind of pass rush.

Also Romeo Crennel is a really good defensive coordinator, really one of the best over the last 25 years.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I give Tomlin credit for how he's handling it.

Apologizing for the language in it, not worried about NE bulletin board material, Brown was a dumbass and selfish, violated team and league policy and will be punished internally and probably by the NFL. He knows better.

I wish Tomlin didn't constantly yell at everyone.
Agreed, except for the "he'll be punished, we won't be punished" aspect.
 

E5 Yaz

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If Goodell was unaware just how much fans dislike him, he would be in Foxborough. He isn't because he is fully aware that they will tear him apart. It is better that he isn't coming, the weaker he looks the better imo.
I'm sure he was quaking in his boots over your hot take on this
 

bankshot1

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I don't pretend to know NFL owner/commissioner protocol, but I would imagine it calls for the commish to sit next to the home owner and yuk it up, and suck down the 25 year old scotch..

I imagine that image might be the last thing the Kraft's want the fan base to see.

And it was probably discussed with Roger's minions.

And fuck Goodell
 

RedOctober3829

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This is an example of what I was talking about when it comes to run defense. Our DL(and if you notice 54 and 50 joined the line to form a 5 man front) has to push the LOS back this week and not give Bell time to sit back and pick out cutback lanes. Players on the back side can not over pursue and need to keep their gap integrity as Giardi indicates. I don't think the A-gap blitzes in the run game are a good idea this week. If you don't guess right and Bell gets past the line, you're screwed.

 

Ed Hillel

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Could use a few of these from the Steelers' secondary this week. Think Brady misses this read?


This is an example of what I was talking about when it comes to run defense. Our DL(and if you notice 54 and 50 joined the line to form a 5 man front) has to push the LOS back this week and not give Bell time to sit back and pick out cutback lanes. Players on the back side can not over pursue and need to keep their gap integrity as Giardi indicates. I don't think the A-gap blitzes in the run game are a good idea this week. If you don't guess right and Bell gets past the line, you're screwed.

On the other hand, it may be a good idea to send a few cornerback blitzes (those not covering Brown) around the edge on early downs to try to catch Bell from behind.
 

soxhop411

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This take is so hot it could power a solar system


And I thought ESPN was bad....

Heading into the AFC and NFC championship games, everybody is trying to find an angle. Colin Cowherd found a doozy.

The Fox Sports Radio host is suggesting that if the Patriots lose to the Steelers Sunday, Tom Brady’s tenure in New England could very well come to an end.

His reasoning? Brady has been subpar in two straight postseason games and Jimmy Garoppolo is a good backup. So there you have it.

“If Pittsburgh wins this game and Brady is average, you’re darn right Kraft and Belichick are having that, ‘Let’s have lunch and talk,'” Cowherd said.
http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2017/01/17/colin-cowherd-offers-most-insane-tom-brady-take-yet/
 

ilol@u

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This is an example of what I was talking about when it comes to run defense. Our DL(and if you notice 54 and 50 joined the line to form a 5 man front) has to push the LOS back this week and not give Bell time to sit back and pick out cutback lanes. Players on the back side can not over pursue and need to keep their gap integrity as Giardi indicates.

#91 Jaime Collins absolutely loses Bell on this play. Luckily the front four did their job.
 

InstaFace

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If you prefer your hot takes to have a sophisticated bent and a slow burn, might I suggest Bleacher Report's "in-depth analysis" concluding that Tom Brady is the 14th most "clutch" QB in the league. By what measure? Why, by a near-farcical combination of cherry-picked situational stats, of course! Kaepernick is #4.

I read a lot of NFL analysis and have never heard of their so-called "stats guru", Garth Sundem. Maybe other people here have.
 

scottyno

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BaseballJones

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I know it's a "hot take", but Brady's last two playoff games:

27-56 (48.2%), 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating
18-38 (47.4%), 287 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 68.6 rating

In his 32 playoff games, here's the distribution of Brady's QB ratings:

120.0 or higher: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
110.0-119.9: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
100.0-109.9: 5 times (15.6%, 5-0)
90.0-99.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
80.0-89.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
70.0-79.9: 6 times (18.8%, 4-2)
69.9 or less: 7 times (21.9%, 4-3)

Not shocking that when Brady is good, the Patriots virtually never lose in the playoffs. When he's average or poor, it's a little more dicey. Common sense. It's actually a testimony to Belichick and the entire team that the Pats are 8-5 in playoff games when Brady has been bad.

He's had 17 games with a passer rating below 90.0, and 15 games with a passer rating of 90.0 or higher, which I found to be a little surprising. He's been below 80.0 13 out of 32 times (40.6%).

So I hate to say it, but when people analyze these playoff games, to suggest that Brady could have a poor game is hardly foolish. It's a real thing to consider.

That said, I expect him to be pretty good against Pittsburgh on Sunday, but we shouldn't at all be shocked if he isn't.
 

Devizier

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I would imagine that a substantial part of Brady's playoff performance can be attributed to the defenses he's playing against.

It would be hard to draw predictive conclusions from such a small sample but it would be interesting to see what an "expected" pass rating would be given those matchups.
 

BaseballJones

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I would imagine that a substantial part of Brady's playoff performance can be attributed to the defenses he's playing against.

It would be hard to draw predictive conclusions from such a small sample but it would be interesting to see what an "expected" pass rating would be given those matchups.
Absolutely. That's a big part of it. But that has to be a factor in the conversation, right? Again, to say that nobody should be concerned about Brady just isn't paying attention to his playoff history. He's the greatest of all time, but he's put up a high percentage of bad games in the playoffs (maybe not more than other QBs, but still). It's not just a "what the heck was THAT?" kind of thing. It's fairly....common, actually. Much more common than we'd like.

The good news is that, obviously, him having a bad game is hardly a death-knell for the Patriots, as they've gone 8-5 in games where he's had a sub-80.0 QB rating, and 12-9 where he's been under 100.0. So it's not like they can't win when he's not been great or even good.
 

m0ckduck

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So I hate to say it, but when people analyze these playoff games, to suggest that Brady could have a poor game is hardly foolish. It's a real thing to consider.
I guess it's semantics. I wouldn't classify last year's AFCCG as a "bad" Brady game. The result was bad, but that's because he was being terrorized on the field all game long. IIRC several Broncos players were marveling at his toughness after the game. And the last drive was one of the more impressive Brady drives I can remember, failed 2PC be damned. A "bad" game is lots of unforced errors, and this happens rarely enough that I don't worry about it.

If you mean that you're worried about the Steelers designing and perfectly executing a defensive game plan that neutralizes Brady, then me too-- but that's like saying, I'm worried about the other team playing better or scoring more points. There have to be other failing parts— coaching staff, OLine, etc-- for this to happen.
 

DJnVa

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Unless there's something about those games that we can make a reasonable argument for that says Jimmy would have been better, then I don't get it.

tl'dr: Cowherd sucks
 

E5 Yaz

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This is why things such as that Cowherd take should be dumped into the media forum and not here. Discussing his opinions and other like it only kill our collective brain cells
 

Van Everyman

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The thing about Brady in his "bad" playoff games (which yes, is usually when the OL is practicing their pirouettes) is that he always has at least one drive where he plays like a fucking assassin, no matter how badly he's played or been roughed up to that point. Last year, that final Denver drive but also the second to last drive in The Game That Shall Not Be Named. And also, to choose one they actually won, the 2011 AFCCG IIRC. The guy isn't always at his best but he never just doesn't show up.
 

Captaincoop

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Colin Cowherd is a person who once spent an entire show arguing that Mrs. Doubtfire is the greatest comedy of all time. Even though the ESPN station was the only one that came in clear in my old car at that point, I drove to work in silence for months after that until I got a new car. In summary, he's the worst.
 

BaseballJones

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The thing about Brady in his "bad" playoff games (which yes, is usually when the OL is practicing their pirouettes) is that he always has at least one drive where he plays like a fucking assassin, no matter how badly he's played or been roughed up to that point. Last year, that final Denver drive but also the second to last drive in The Game That Shall Not Be Named. And also, to choose one they actually won, the 2011 AFCCG IIRC. The guy isn't always at his best but he never just doesn't show up.
Agreed. And again, it's not like Brady having a bad game is necessary a doomsday scenario for the Patriots. They're 8-5 in playoff games when he has a sub 80.0 passer rating. That's pretty amazing.

So the lesson here is this: If Brady is great, the Patriots simply do not lose in the playoffs. But if he's *not* great, they're still generally good enough to have a legit shot at winning.
 

heavyde050

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I know it's a "hot take", but Brady's last two playoff games:

27-56 (48.2%), 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating
18-38 (47.4%), 287 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 68.6 rating

In his 32 playoff games, here's the distribution of Brady's QB ratings:

120.0 or higher: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
110.0-119.9: 3 times (9.4%, 3-0)
100.0-109.9: 5 times (15.6%, 5-0)
90.0-99.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
80.0-89.9: 4 times (12.5%, 2-2)
70.0-79.9: 6 times (18.8%, 4-2)
69.9 or less: 7 times (21.9%, 4-3)

Not shocking that when Brady is good, the Patriots virtually never lose in the playoffs. When he's average or poor, it's a little more dicey. Common sense. It's actually a testimony to Belichick and the entire team that the Pats are 8-5 in playoff games when Brady has been bad.

He's had 17 games with a passer rating below 90.0, and 15 games with a passer rating of 90.0 or higher, which I found to be a little surprising. He's been below 80.0 13 out of 32 times (40.6%).

So I hate to say it, but when people analyze these playoff games, to suggest that Brady could have a poor game is hardly foolish. It's a real thing to consider.

That said, I expect him to be pretty good against Pittsburgh on Sunday, but we shouldn't at all be shocked if he isn't.
Yeah but many of the more recent "poor" games have been much more the fault of some combination of poor offensive line play and/or going against good to historically great defenses
On a scale of a difficulty, Brady's fourth quarter shredding of the Legion of Boom was a virtuoso performance.
I mean Brady was awful against the Ravens in 2009, no excuses (also the Chargers in 2006 and 2007).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/
 

Leather

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In 12 playoff series, Mickey Mantle (career avg: .298) hit over .300 only three times. In the '62 series (he was MVP that year), he hit .120.

Just because a player is great does not mean that they are always great. It's a stupid use of bad logic to create a "contrary to conventional wisdom" discussion point, and about as intellectually rigorous as saying "Hey, how come it's cold in the desert at night? I thought deserts were supposed to be some of the hottest places on earth?! Somebody's not telling the truth, and we're going to get down the bottom of it!"
 

Salva135

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Except that no one is going to remember degree of difficulty in a playoff game. This is a binary system. Matt Ryan lit up the Seahawks. Rodgers lit up the #1 NFC seed. If Brady wants his dick sucked again like the media does with those two, he's going to have to light up the Steelers.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah but many of the more recent "poor" games have been much more the fault of some combination of poor offensive line play and/or going against good to historically great defenses
On a scale of a difficulty, Brady's fourth quarter shredding of the Legion of Boom was a virtuoso performance.
I mean Brady was awful against the Ravens in 2009, no excuses (also the Chargers in 2006 and 2007).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/
Sure. There are always reasons for a bad game. I mean, last week he had at least a half-dozen throwaways and one of his INTs was a ball that went through Floyd's hands. It happens.

Brady is a great quarterback - I think the greatest of all time. And there's nobody I'd rather have leading my team in the playoffs. But it's not like he's not capable of having a pretty sub-par game in the playoffs, for whatever reason. It has happened quite a bit over his illustrious career.