The off-season
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
- Start date
My hope is, again this offseason, they picked up his option with the intention of trading him. Let somebody else worry which Buchholz they are getting.
Based on the article and not knowing what the new LT Level will be it would seem that the Sox would concentrate on trades rather than free agents. However, as stated in the article the Sox may not limited themselves if an opportunity arises in free agency that would be of benefit to the team. An opportunity could arise from someone like the White Sox if they decide to shift from trying to augment their existing roster to one that focuses on rebuilding (See link below). What would the Sox give up to add Sale and Quintana? This would be an inexpensive from a dollar sense but one that would cost dearly from young players and prospects.
Tim Dierkes article:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-7.html
Tim Dierkes article:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-7.html
Please feel free to expand on your statement. Trying to secure both Sale and Quintana would be difficult but with the talent in the Sox organization not impossible. However, with that said "bosox79" offers another viable player that could be combined with Sale or Quintana that could bring about interesting results.
It actually is impossible imo, if for no other reason then Chicago wouldn't be open to trading both to begin with. But that is just the difference between speculating the possibility of a rebuild in terms of what's "fun" (from the outside pov, of course), and speculating in terms of what is most likely.
Chicago isn't Philly of yesterday, essentially sitting on one decent piece (Hamels). The general assumption that modern day rebuilds must equal 5 year plans that start by trading off your best and most affordable core players is an outdated one as well. Trying to stay at least somewhat competitive at the MLB level has value in the 2nd WC era too...even if that value does tend to get lost sometimes in all the "dream big" prospect drooling. In fact, Chicago is probably more likely to buy in this winter imo then see a fire sale that extends all the way down to the big three being discussed above.
The above stated, I still maintain that picking up Buchholz's option more or less closed the door on the possibility we see DD making a big trade for another starter anyway. He didn't do that to hopefully trade him latter, or to pay $13.5m on a middle reliever. Health permitting Clay is locked in as the 5th starter to start the season.
Last edited:
Heard from a major-league source who characterized the Red Sox's interest in Carlos Beltran this way: "They want him badly." Might boil down to whether Beltran wants more than a one-year guarantee. Unclear at this point. Regardless, Beltran wasn't subjected to qualifying offer by virtue of getting traded during season, so signing team won't have to cough up first-round pick.
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0587761716218043962-4
http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0587761716218043962-4
Beltran will be 40 next April. Is he another well preserved freak? Sweet swing from either side. I give it my blessing.
Beltran's bat might still be up to the task, but he offers almost nothing defensively. No way I'd guarantee a 2d year.
I'd rather find a more unpolished but versatile gem. Someone like Valbuena. Bellhorn-like bat, can play 3rd, 1st, maybe 2d... If they want an OF-capable guy, then Moss....
I'd rather find a more unpolished but versatile gem. Someone like Valbuena. Bellhorn-like bat, can play 3rd, 1st, maybe 2d... If they want an OF-capable guy, then Moss....
BP Boston's latest foray into the offseason moves of the Red Sox includes this doozy.
C-Leon, Vazquez or Swihart
1B-Goldschmidt
2B-Pedroia
SS-Bogaerts
3B-Sandoval
LF-Benintendi
CF-Bradley
RF-Betts
SP-Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Buchholz or Pomeranz
RP-Kimbrel, Brett Cecil, Kelly, Smith, Ross, Barnes Buchholz or Pomeranz
http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/2017-offseason-oracle-goldys-on-first/
His 2017 team would be the following
C-Leon, Vazquez or Swihart
1B-Goldschmidt
2B-Pedroia
SS-Bogaerts
3B-Sandoval
LF-Benintendi
CF-Bradley
RF-Betts
SP-Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Buchholz or Pomeranz
RP-Kimbrel, Brett Cecil, Kelly, Smith, Ross, Barnes Buchholz or Pomeranz
http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/2017-offseason-oracle-goldys-on-first/
I don't think that deal - in any permutation - gets it done, but if so, do it in a cocaine heartbeat.
While I think you can make the argument that Goldy is more valuable than Sale and some of us at least consider the possibility of Moncada straight up for Sale, adding in another elite prospect on top of that in Devers, for a 1B would price him out for me.
The tiers he has listed don't make any sense to me either. Swihart on his own isn't worth much, so adding him with Devers and someone in the marginal (irrelevant) 3rd tier doesn't do it. Moncada/Swihart/Travis maybe? But I don't think that's enough either.
Using crude math, since that's all I can manage as an English major, Goldy has averaged 5.5 wins to start his career, which is about 44 mill in today's market. If he does that through 2019 when he'll be 31, he'll earn about 130 million before factoring in inflation. Subtract the $34 mill he's due and it's close to $100 mill in surplus value.
There's obviously a very real chance Devers and Moncada are both busts, but combined they would have to earn 12-13 WAR over 3 years total to to get to that $100 mill. And then they would still be cheap after that, and Goldy would be a free agent.
I would do Moncada+ (Basabe maybe), due to OF surplus), but not anyone else in their top 5.
The tiers he has listed don't make any sense to me either. Swihart on his own isn't worth much, so adding him with Devers and someone in the marginal (irrelevant) 3rd tier doesn't do it. Moncada/Swihart/Travis maybe? But I don't think that's enough either.
Using crude math, since that's all I can manage as an English major, Goldy has averaged 5.5 wins to start his career, which is about 44 mill in today's market. If he does that through 2019 when he'll be 31, he'll earn about 130 million before factoring in inflation. Subtract the $34 mill he's due and it's close to $100 mill in surplus value.
There's obviously a very real chance Devers and Moncada are both busts, but combined they would have to earn 12-13 WAR over 3 years total to to get to that $100 mill. And then they would still be cheap after that, and Goldy would be a free agent.
I would do Moncada+ (Basabe maybe), due to OF surplus), but not anyone else in their top 5.
Last edited:
Bautista’s people met for a long time in the lobby here at the Scottsdale Omni with a Red Sox executive, and it’s known that Bautista’s ability to pull and take advantage of the Green Monster came up, but Bautista’s main longtime agent Jay Alou downplayed the meeting, saying he has a longtime friendship with that Boston executive, Frank Wren. And Boston is known to be looking at many different available players as possible replacements for retired icon David Ortiz, such as Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales and others.
http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-nothing-completely-off-table-jose-bautista/
http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-nothing-completely-off-table-jose-bautista/
Cots has 4 players (at $59m) currently listed for Arizona as 2017 non-arby commitments (Greinke, Tomas, Goldschmidt, Pollack), with Greinke accounting for more then half of that.
Arizona was 5th in the NL in runs scored, last in ERA. So Hazen comes in, immediately trades away their franchise guy in a package with no solid pitching upside, and is still left with what's looking like the most glaring issue facing him in regards to a total rebuild concept?
Personally not seeing it.
Arizona was 5th in the NL in runs scored, last in ERA. So Hazen comes in, immediately trades away their franchise guy in a package with no solid pitching upside, and is still left with what's looking like the most glaring issue facing him in regards to a total rebuild concept?
Personally not seeing it.
Rob Bradford @bradfo
Red Sox continue to show strong interest in Greg Holland, who showed good health in showcase. Taking 6 wks off before resuming throwing
Rob Bradford @bradfo
Should be noted that while Red Sox have interest in Beltran, categorized by sources as part of 'wide net' in terms of finding DH replacement
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/09/red-sox-need-reliable-late-innings-reliever/n1DDWYkVv0ON2dwWk0IfcJ/story.html
Red Sox continue to show strong interest in Greg Holland, who showed good health in showcase. Taking 6 wks off before resuming throwing
Rob Bradford @bradfo
Should be noted that while Red Sox have interest in Beltran, categorized by sources as part of 'wide net' in terms of finding DH replacement
More at the link
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/09/red-sox-need-reliable-late-innings-reliever/n1DDWYkVv0ON2dwWk0IfcJ/story.html
I never thought I'd want Joe Blanton in a Red Sox uniform..... now I can suddenly see it.
I still think Kelly can turn into that although Blanton on a one year deal would be a nice way to have a safety net there
I still think Kelly can turn into that although Blanton on a one year deal would be a nice way to have a safety net there
My goodness, did you watch the Dodgers-Cubs series? Blanton gave up 3 huge jacks in key situations. Would not want him pitching in a big moment.
Who's going to make a better offer than that? If that doesn't get done, I'd have to guess Chicago isn't putting him up for...sale (sorry). What else do they need to get a deal done, ERod? Moncada? Both? Geez.
If the White Sox aren't motivated to sell, then it doesn't matter if anyone can make a better offer. They don't have to settle for the best available offer if it doesn't give them what they want. My guess is they want to be blown away to consider moving their best starting pitcher. They're not exactly an overly expensive team or an overly old one. They can certainly build on what they have with Sale and Quintana as the core of a contending team.
This is interesting.........Todd Frazer could be available.
http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1151154?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1151154?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
If I'm the White Sox, I'd rather move Quintana than Sale, but if I'm trading Sale, then I want two good, young cost-controlled MLBers and a top prospect. So... E-Rod, Benintendi (or Bradley), and Moncada. And maybe get the Sox to throw in Dubon for good measure.
Doesn't really matter whether we think that's "reasonable." They don't have to settle for reasonable.
Doesn't really matter whether we think that's "reasonable." They don't have to settle for reasonable.
Oh, I definitely agree with you. But if that truly is the price, I expect the Sox to walk away and find another trade target. Or just stand pat.
This isn't the time to unload the farm for any particular player whether it's Sale or not. They need to see if players like Moncada, Devers, Kopech, and Travis can help the big club in the near future and hope to keep the cost-controlled, star player train rolling.
Buchholz is 10 years younger, had essentially an identical 2016 FIP to Dickey (in a "bad" Buchholz year), and has put up 2 2.8+ fWAR seasons in the time since Dickey last had 1. The only tangible benefit Dickey gets over the last 5 years is health and that's not something super-important when you are talking about a #5 starter versus a #1.
Buchholz @ $13m >> Dickey @ $8m, which further emphasizes why CB's option was picked up.
Yeah, this is what I'd have Sale coming down to as well. Also what had initially steered me most towards taking a go big on Jansen stance, since I see that being the most preferable of DD's Big 3 as far as options go (Jansen/Chapman, EE, or a trade for Sale/Quintana).
Frazier is pretty interesting depending on the rental cost. He's not the LHB/SH I'd prefer, but he does offer up a better level of Panda/Shaw suck protection (since I guess we can then reasonably shift Panda to DH for a short leash trial to see if he'll hit), while increasing the probability we'll take a more patient approach with Moncada's development. Not really a fan of the possibility we default back to a "Moncada doesn't need to be good at the MLB level, he just needs to be less terrible then the others" mentality.
The emphasize on that reliever addition being an absolute stud would still remain though imo. Frazier, standing pat with Buchholz, and Joe Blanton would make for a fairly underwhelming winter.
Sorry, got distracted from important things like baseball by the interesting spectacle of my country imploding.
1) We don't need both Sale and Quintana. That's a 10-team-mixed-league-fantasy-baseball idea if I ever heard one. We've already got two very good pitchers, and a few other pretty good ones. You could make a decent argument for adding one more #1-2 type guy to the mix, though I'm not convinced it's necessary. Adding two is obviously overkill. Which matters because...
2) The talent price for both those guys together would be prohibitive. It would require something approaching a clean sweep of our top 10 prospect list, which is already weaker than it has been in a while thanks to trades and promotions; we might end up turning a top-5 farm system into a bottom-5 one, and for what? To make a top-third starting rotation into a league-best one? The gain is not proportional to the pain. Even if the White Sox would do it.
I haven't seen this reported anywhere and take the usual Jim Bowden giant size grain of salt. Obviously any GM would love to get Sale, Verlander, or Cabrera without giving up much. But I haven't see these words attributed to Dombrowski.
The Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are positioned well and eager to make a run at the best White Sox and Tigers players. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski said he would love to land Chris Sale, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera if he can do so without giving up Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech in strong prospect packages.
http://insider.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=13291
The Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are positioned well and eager to make a run at the best White Sox and Tigers players. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski said he would love to land Chris Sale, Justin Verlander or Miguel Cabrera if he can do so without giving up Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech in strong prospect packages.
http://insider.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=13291
I think picking up Cabrera in a response to losing Ortiz would completely negate all the good will DD has built up with me since he took over. That contract is terrible even at face value, and essentially the poster child of the obnoxiously stupid stuff you don't want the guy running your team to be out there doing.
The other 2 simply wouldn't happen without Moncada being in the mix imo.
The other 2 simply wouldn't happen without Moncada being in the mix imo.
I'm not sure anyone is just taking Miggy's contract off Detroit's hands. But if the Tigers ate $5M per year? It would still be huge money, but that would start some conversations (and not necessarily limited to Moncada-level prospects).
I still think Detroit should focus instead on moving V-Mart and, if possible (by adding in money), A.Sanchez. Victor's contract is fair but still pricey, and he ain't getting younger. Sanchez is expendable and not worth much, but might be moveable in a pitching-starved market.
And to be clear, while I'd certainly be interested in Martinez, I'd want no part of Sanchez.
I still think Detroit should focus instead on moving V-Mart and, if possible (by adding in money), A.Sanchez. Victor's contract is fair but still pricey, and he ain't getting younger. Sanchez is expendable and not worth much, but might be moveable in a pitching-starved market.
And to be clear, while I'd certainly be interested in Martinez, I'd want no part of Sanchez.
These are Rosenthal's thoughts after the Morales signing.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 6m6 minutes ago
#RedSox have indicated they want DH on shorter term. Wondering if increase in luxury-tax threshold would change their thinking…
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 6m6 minutes ago
If threshold rises from $189M to say, $210M, #RedSox could cite increased flexibility as reason to sign Encarnacion.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 6m6 minutes ago
#RedSox have indicated they want DH on shorter term. Wondering if increase in luxury-tax threshold would change their thinking…
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 6m6 minutes ago
If threshold rises from $189M to say, $210M, #RedSox could cite increased flexibility as reason to sign Encarnacion.
I'm hoping that doesn't mean more money and more years for EE. Where else might he land, since TOR looks less likely now?
Props to the Jays for striking early on their guy.
I'll end up liking that deal more then a 4-5 year one at 2x+ the money on EE. At $11m/per and barring a restrictive no trade clause, flipping Morales once somebody was actually ready to step up and seize the job probably wouldn't have played out to be too much of an issue.
I'll end up liking that deal more then a 4-5 year one at 2x+ the money on EE. At $11m/per and barring a restrictive no trade clause, flipping Morales once somebody was actually ready to step up and seize the job probably wouldn't have played out to be too much of an issue.
Frazier would be perfect. Assuming the acquisition cost isn't prohibitive, he is the perfect stopgap for 2017 until Moncada is ready. DH and 3b can be shared by some combination of Sandoval, Frazier, Shaw and Young. If Moncada is ready mid-season, you switch Frazier to 1b and Hanley to DH. If Pablo is actually playing well again you sell high to get out of as much of the contract as possible..
I went to bed at 10:15pm knowing the country was about to implode and I am not completely sure if I've woke up yet.
I guess I can agree with your analysis. The cost would be huge. I saw "starting rotation into a league-best one" and lost context with reality.
My suggestion for the offensive side of things would be to sign a LHH 1B/DH type (Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez) and a RHH 3B/1B type. Some one already mentioned Todd Frazier, but my suggestion would be Trevor Plouffe. 3rd year arb eligible and the Twins need 3B clear for Sano. Mediocre bat overall but he has a career split OPS against LHP of 809. He is remarkably consistent as well with marks of 783, 780, and 781 the last 3 years. Shaw either goes back to AAA as a Panda backup or gets traded.
It might be a bit off the radar, but given where DD has been the past several seasons, could there be a package deal the Red Sox could put together that would net them both Verlander and Victor Martinez? Martinez has 2 more years on his deal at 18 per (2/36), and Verlander has 3 years and 84 mil left on his deal, with a 22 mil vesting option for 2020 if he finishes in the top 5 in the Cy Young voting in 2019. I know both fellows are long in the tooth, but those are short term obligations for players who are still very productive. Given the salary relief inherent in the deal, I would imagine that the Red Sox could acquire both with a package headlined by Devers and Swihart, and leave out the Moncada/Kopech teir of talent. Verlander slots in nicely ahead of Price as the ace, and fills a huge need without a long term commitment. Sure, it would be better to have Sale (or maybe Quintana), but they'd cost a ton more. DD knows these guys from his Detroit days, and it could well be an easy trade for him to sign off on.
Given that the Red Sox have a team that can compete right now, and a bunch of relatively young assets elsewhere, could they get better players less expensively? I'm not sure signing Beltran and Rich Hill, for example, would be any cheaper, or any more impactful.
This is just idle speculation, but it is fun to consider.
Verlander, Price, Porcello, EDRod, Pomeranz/Wright/Buchholz
Swing man: Wright, Buchholz, Pomeranz
Pen: Kimbrel, Kelly, C. Smith (June?), and ????
C: Leon/Vazquez
1b: Hanley
2b: Pedroia
ss: Bogaerts
3b: Shaw/Holt, with Moncada up by August
LF: Benintendi
CF: Bradley
RF: Betts
DH: Victor
Young, Holt/Shaw on the bench, maybe Marco Hernandez?
Given that the Red Sox have a team that can compete right now, and a bunch of relatively young assets elsewhere, could they get better players less expensively? I'm not sure signing Beltran and Rich Hill, for example, would be any cheaper, or any more impactful.
This is just idle speculation, but it is fun to consider.
Verlander, Price, Porcello, EDRod, Pomeranz/Wright/Buchholz
Swing man: Wright, Buchholz, Pomeranz
Pen: Kimbrel, Kelly, C. Smith (June?), and ????
C: Leon/Vazquez
1b: Hanley
2b: Pedroia
ss: Bogaerts
3b: Shaw/Holt, with Moncada up by August
LF: Benintendi
CF: Bradley
RF: Betts
DH: Victor
Young, Holt/Shaw on the bench, maybe Marco Hernandez?
About Verlander: he had a great year in terms of outcomes, but mostly by throwing more fly balls than he ever has. I'm not sure that approach shakes out as well in the hitters' parks of the AL East.
Verlander had an excellent season, no matter how you parse it. He's certainly capable of being an above average pitcher beyond 2016, and his profile and durability are just not on the market at all. Price may have been comparable, and he's younger, but he's also on a 7 year deal, and Price's year was worse than Verlander's, despite pitching in front of a much better defensive team. I'd prefer Sale, or Quintana, but those guys will cost twice as much. The Sox might have to pay Verlander and Victor in the scenario I describe, but it doesn't cost them draft picks or impact their draft pool, though it does cost them pieces of the future in Swihart and Devers. In my opinion, I'd rather have those 2 guys on their short contracts than pay Hill and Beltran more (thought neither Hill nor Beltran would cost a pick, as both were traded midseason, and can't get a QO). EE is another story altogether, but if you prioritize getting a pitcher above other considerations, Verlander certainly bears investigation.
After the year he just had, if Detroit puts Verlander up for serious trade consideration he'll be this off-season's most prized piece.
Unlike some earlier wishful thinking here, I can actually see the barren starting pitching market playing heavily in Detroit's favor there. An offer of Devers and Swihart doesn't even get that conversation started imo.
Unlike some earlier wishful thinking here, I can actually see the barren starting pitching market playing heavily in Detroit's favor there. An offer of Devers and Swihart doesn't even get that conversation started imo.
Maybe the market will go crazy. Maybe SP scarcity will cause player costs to skyrocket. But I can't imagine a team paying Rich "100 innings" Hill as much as Verlander is still owed - 3/$84. I also doubt that Beltran costs what V-Mart is owed - 2/$36. They might not be as good (probably not), but they will cost less in dollars and nothing in prospects.
I don't think DD is going to overpay this offseason. He got Pom to avoid paying too much for a mediocre FA or having to overpay (even more) in prospects in a trade.
I don't think DD is going to overpay this offseason. He got Pom to avoid paying too much for a mediocre FA or having to overpay (even more) in prospects in a trade.