WS Game 7: A Curse Dies and a Curse Continues

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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Tito had one great starter and flotsam. Maddon had 4 good to great starters. Tito needed to rely heavily on his pen to have a chance. Maddon did not, yet chose to try and prove to everyone he could match what Tito was doing. Absolute idiocy. He's lucky his over management didn't screw them out of winning.
He had to rely heavily on his pen but still only trusted 2 1/2 guys. He also had to rely heavily on his pen because he chose to use two pieces of "flotsam"--a term I disagree with-- on short rest.
 

coremiller

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Jul 14, 2005
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The key at-bat was Gomes in the bottom of the 8th, two outs, man on first, three runs already in, Chapman collapsing after giving up three straight rockets. The count is 2-0, Chapman is gasping for breath, and Gomes promptly swings and misses at balls 3, 4 and 5.
It was a bad AB but Gomes is a backup catcher and the #9 hitter, and he had a .527 OPS this year. He just can't hit. The sequence in the 9th inning when Cleveland's top of the order went down 1-2-3 while Chapman was afraid to throw a fastball and started lobbing 87 mph hanging sliders up there was way worse, relative to skill/expectation.
 

Hagios

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Dec 15, 2007
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I think there should be some kind of Fan Futility/Suffering index. How do we measure it though? Are repeated post-season appearances good or bad? Or are they good or bad related to the last WS win?
Good question. Something like

Sum: each season since title *(max(PWS)+ k)

Max(PWS) - the highest probability of winning a WS at any point in the season. Every team starts the season at 0.03 and the 86 Sox reached .994.

K - a constant factor for how much it hurts to have to wait another year even if the team didn't accomplish much. Probably around 0.2 or so.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Merritt was a good matchup against the Blue Jays on paper, not so much against the Cubs. I get that.

Coco was removed once Heyward got to 3rd in the 9th. I believe the very next pitch was that dumb foul bunt K, then the nice play by Lindor. The odds that removing Coco there matters is pretty damn low and it didn't pan out - at the same time, the chance that Martinez is your final out is also pretty low.
Why was Merritt, a lefty, a good match-up on paper against the BJ's and their right handed mashers?
 

Bergs

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Jul 22, 2005
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Tito had one great starter and flotsam. Maddon had 4 good to great starters. Tito needed to rely heavily on his pen to have a chance. Maddon did not, yet chose to try and prove to everyone he could match what Tito was doing. Absolute idiocy. He's lucky his over management didn't screw them out of winning.
I might quibble about "flotsam", but 100% agree with the bolded.
 

santadevil

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Aug 1, 2006
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Final score for the series Indians 27 Cubs 27

I'm glad I got to watch the final game of the year with my son.
Lots of plays and moments that we paused the game for a few seconds to discuss what happened.
Those are my favorite times.
 

Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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Parade today in Chitown. Beautiful day, but let's see if they exceed the 2 1/2 million (or who knows how many that came out in the rain in 2004). Recording it and will watch some of it later. They don't got no duckboats.
 

Empyreal

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Jul 17, 2005
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The rally in Grant Park is very good. I'm enjoying the flourishes by the organist. David Ross just took a selfie with the crowd behind him.
 

Bergs

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Jul 22, 2005
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Boswell's column today features the alternate ending he wrote after the 8th if the Indians had won. Spoiler alert, Grady Little is compared favorably to Maddon.
Yeah, but doesn't even mention the insanity of pulling Hendricks when he did. That was as dumbfounding a managerial decision as I've ever seen (including Grady)
 

rembrat

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May 26, 2006
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Yeah, but doesn't even mention the insanity of pulling Hendricks when he did. That was as dumbfounding a managerial decision as I've ever seen (including Grady)
It seems like one of those convention managerial things that drive us crazy. In a Game 7, only an ace or a #2 can pitch deep into the game. Anyone else needs to be lifted IMMEDIATELY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF DANGER (even if there is no real sign of a threat).
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Yeah, but doesn't even mention the insanity of pulling Hendricks when he did. That was as dumbfounding a managerial decision as I've ever seen (including Grady)
Lester hadn't made a relief appearance since the 2007 ALCS and clearly was not totally comfortable doing so, and even though it was a game 7, the last thing you want is your $150M ace to get hurt. So they had Lester warming up with his normal routine from very early on (maybe the third inning?) and once he was warm, the window for him to come in was probably only an inning or two. So either Hendricks gets you through 8 to Chapman or the combination of Hendricks/Lester does, but if they don't bring in Lester and Hendricks gets into trouble in the 6th or 7th, I think it gets trickier with bringing in Lester.

That being said, I thought with Lester's well-known issues with baserunners that Maddon should have tried to get Hendricks through the 5th, but I totally get pulling him after that.
 

scotian1

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Jul 19, 2005
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I found the parade part of the celebration pretty impersonal. With such a wide street the crowd was kept well back and the buses had the players way above the crowd as well. The CSE telecast spent too much time having a panel talk and not enough time showing the players close up. I switched to WGN and they were a little better but still the shots of the buses we too far out most of the time. Grant Park saved it but so many fans would have been unable to get there. In all honesty, the Sox Duck Boat Parade was much better regardless of what the Great Theo says.
 

DukeSox

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Dec 22, 2005
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You couldn't get within a mile of grant park unless you were there at 8am and waited for 5 hours
 

DukeSox

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Dec 22, 2005
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5 million is a shitload of people, and today was already a school holiday so downtown was full of wasted high school kids
 

InsideTheParker

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Jul 15, 2005
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Thomas Boswell wrote a piece in case the Indians won. Here's a bit of it.
Now, you can call the Cubs anything you want. If the first word that comes to your mind is, indeed, “cursed,” then go for it. Nobody can call it hyperbole now. And while you’re at it, just change the name of that goat from Murphy to Maddon.

The foolish overuse of Chapman in Game 6 by Cubs Manager Joe Maddon will now, with hindsight, be the future measuring stick for fretful over-managing. In Game 5, Chapman got a career-high eight outs to save a 3-2 win, using 42 pitches. On Tuesday, Maddon used the southpaw for a crucial out in the seventh inning. That should have been enough, since the Cubs took a five-run lead into the eighth. Yet Chapman pitched the entire eighth inning.

Then, almost inconceivably, Maddon left Chapman in to face the first hitter of the ninth inning, despite a 9-2 Chicago lead. Remember, Chapman also threw a total of 24 warmup pitches in those three innings, most of them close to 100 mph.

After that game, Tribe Manager Terry Francona had said, “We hung around enough so at least Chapman had to pitch. You never know; that might help us.”

Indeed. Maddon has done what seemed impossible. He’s made former Boston manager Grady Little look like a genius for leaving Pedro Martinez in too long against the Yanks with the 2003 pennant on the line.. .

That Cleveland came so close made this the best extra-inning Game 7 in baseball history — since 1924.

Back then, the Washington Senators rallied for two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning against the New York Giants to tie the score at 3. To start the ninth inning, Walter Johnson, 36, entered in relief, on one day’s rest after pitching a complete game. The Post’s Shirley Povich said that Johnson had nothing that day except his will. The Giants got a one-out triple in the ninth and put their lead man aboard in the 10th, 11th and 12th. But none of them scored. And Washington walked off, and whooped off, as champs in the 12th because a Senator ground ball hit a pebble and bad-hopped over Freddie Lindstrom’s head.

As always, there are alternate versions of our endings. Sometimes, we actually love the one we got.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/cubs-choke-indians-win-alternate-game-7-column-shows-fine-line-between-winning-and-losing/2016/11/03/5c8dfb5c-a1d9-11e6-8d63-3e0a660f1f04_story.html
 

E5 Yaz

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Grumpy McSitsalot is the turd in the dyed-blue river

"It was different for me," Montero said to the Waddle and Silvy Show on ESPN 1000 on Friday. "It was a different emotion because I didn't get a chance to play. I was a little disappointed, to be honest, because I felt like I did a good job in the regular season but was left out a little bit. It made me feel a little like not important or maybe not as good to be in this lineup."

"I think the toughest part for me is they never communicated with me," Montero said. "I'm a veteran guy. They talk about veteran leadership. I have 11 years in the game and two All-Star [appearances]. I expected to be treated a little better."

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17973532/chicago-cubs-catcher-miguel-montero-critical-manager-joe-maddon-role-team-postseason
 

Bergs

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Jul 22, 2005
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Lester hadn't made a relief appearance since the 2007 ALCS and clearly was not totally comfortable doing so, and even though it was a game 7, the last thing you want is your $150M ace to get hurt. So they had Lester warming up with his normal routine from very early on (maybe the third inning?) and once he was warm, the window for him to come in was probably only an inning or two. So either Hendricks gets you through 8 to Chapman or the combination of Hendricks/Lester does, but if they don't bring in Lester and Hendricks gets into trouble in the 6th or 7th, I think it gets trickier with bringing in Lester.

That being said, I thought with Lester's well-known issues with baserunners that Maddon should have tried to get Hendricks through the 5th, but I totally get pulling him after that.

I am 90+% certain that Hendricks gets through 8 with fewer runs than Lester and Chapman gave up through 8. Dude was cruising, bullshit walk and all. I have a hard time seeing him cough up 6 runs.
 

Bergs

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Jul 22, 2005
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It seems like one of those convention managerial things that drive us crazy. In a Game 7, only an ace or a #2 can pitch deep into the game. Anyone else needs to be lifted IMMEDIATELY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF DANGER (even if there is no real sign of a threat).
There is no way your boy Farrell would have done that. I actually think I might take him over Maddon at this point. #blech
 

jon abbey

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I am 90+% certain that Hendricks gets through 8 with fewer runs than Lester and Chapman gave up through 8. Dude was cruising, bullshit walk and all. I have a hard time seeing him cough up 6 runs.
Of course if Ross makes the very makeable play on the dribbler in the 5th, Lester maybe gets through the 8th with Cleveland still at 1 (2 runs scored in the 5th after the play, 3 against Chapman in the 8th).
 

Remagellan

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Lester hadn't made a relief appearance since the 2007 ALCS and clearly was not totally comfortable doing so, and even though it was a game 7, the last thing you want is your $150M ace to get hurt. So they had Lester warming up with his normal routine from very early on (maybe the third inning?) and once he was warm, the window for him to come in was probably only an inning or two. So either Hendricks gets you through 8 to Chapman or the combination of Hendricks/Lester does, but if they don't bring in Lester and Hendricks gets into trouble in the 6th or 7th, I think it gets trickier with bringing in Lester.

That being said, I thought with Lester's well-known issues with baserunners that Maddon should have tried to get Hendricks through the 5th, but I totally get pulling him after that.
I agree with this point about Lester in particular and starters in general coming into a game as relievers. I think this is the point that most people miss when they question Tito inserting Pedro into Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. Pedro claims he didn't realize he was going to pitch, which I believe is his ego talking. Clearly, the plan back then, with Foulke unavailable after throwing 100 pitches over three nights, AND LOWE STARTING ON TWO DAYS REST, was to use Pedro as a bridge to Timlin and Embree in the eighth and the ninth.

The "problem" was that Lowe pitched better than anyone could have imagined, and gave the Sox six spectacular innings, which meant went Pedro finally got into the game, he had lost his sharpness in the bullpen.

Maddon faced a similar issue with his use of Lester...

Except his starter wasn't pitching on two days rest, Hendricks was on full rest and cruising, much as he did in his clinching effort against the Dodgers in the NLCS. But as he did the night before, Maddon, the "KING OF LOOK AT ME MANAGING", pulled an ace starter who should have been left in the game to bring in an unneeded reliever. In Game 6 it was Chapman for Arrieta, in a move that caused Chapman to throw 20 unnecessary pitches and hurt his effectiveness, almost fatally for the Cubs championship hopes, the following night.
In Game 7, it was Lester for Hendricks, which wound up being great for baseball fans since it made a thrilling game out of what should have been a cakewalk to the trophy presentation for the Cubs, but terrible for the nerves of the players, owners, and fans of the team he manages.

One of the greatest joys of the Cubs winning is that the media did not ignore this story. Maddon may be great at getting his team to play dress up on road trips, but when the lights were the brightest, his attempts to play dress up as a playoff savant like Tito almost cost his team a championship.

In short, I agree with you that if he was going to use Lester, Maddon had to put him in when he did. But a better manager would have realized that he had no need to use Lester, because he already had a Cy Young caliber ace on the mound who was in complete command of that game.
 

Average Reds

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Of course if Ross makes the very makeable play on the dribbler in the 5th, Lester maybe gets through the 8th with Cleveland still at 1 (2 runs scored in the 5th after the play, 3 against Chapman in the 8th).
You mean the dribbler that came back to Lester and was an easy play for every pitcher in organized baseball except for Lester because he has lost the ability to throw to bases and therefore cannot field his position?

Yeah, that's all on Ross...
 

Bergs

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Jul 22, 2005
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I agree with this point about Lester in particular and starters in general coming into a game as relievers. I think this is the point that most people miss when they question Tito inserting Pedro into Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. Pedro claims he didn't realize he was going to pitch, which I believe is his ego talking. Clearly, the plan back then, with Foulke unavailable after throwing 100 pitches over three nights, AND LOWE STARTING ON TWO DAYS REST, was to use Pedro as a bridge to Timlin and Embree in the eighth and the ninth.

The "problem" was that Lowe pitched better than anyone could have imagined, and gave the Sox six spectacular innings, which meant went Pedro finally got into the game, he had lost his sharpness in the bullpen.

Maddon faced a similar issue with his use of Lester...

Except his starter wasn't pitching on two days rest, Hendricks was on full rest and cruising, much as he did in his clinching effort against the Dodgers in the NLCS. But as he did the night before, Maddon, the "KING OF LOOK AT ME MANAGING", pulled an ace starter who should have been left in the game to bring in an unneeded reliever. In Game 6 it was Chapman for Arrieta, in a move that caused Chapman to throw 20 unnecessary pitches and hurt his effectiveness, almost fatally for the Cubs championship hopes, the following night.
In Game 7, it was Lester for Hendricks, which wound up being great for baseball fans since it made a thrilling game out of what should have been a cakewalk to the trophy presentation for the Cubs, but terrible for the nerves of the players, owners, and fans of the team he manages.

One of the greatest joys of the Cubs winning is that the media did not ignore this story. Maddon may be great at getting his team to play dress up on road trips, but when the lights were the brightest, his attempts to play dress up as a playoff savant like Tito almost cost his team a championship.

In short, I agree with you that if he was going to use Lester, Maddon had to put him in when he did. But a better manager would have realized that he had no need to use Lester, because he already had a Cy Young caliber ace on the mound who was in complete command of that game.
Really great post, imo.