ALCS: Blue Jays vs Fighting Titos
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
It was probably a bit of feel thing with Donaldson.
I could see Tito thinking that the extra potential run was worth the potential upside of outs at more bases and an inning ending double play. With two at bats left, the added win percentage between a 2 run lead and a 3 run lead, especially with Tito possibly not having access to premium bullpen assets, is not nearly as significant as the win percentage you add if you hold it to a 1-run lead.
I could see Tito thinking that the extra potential run was worth the potential upside of outs at more bases and an inning ending double play. With two at bats left, the added win percentage between a 2 run lead and a 3 run lead, especially with Tito possibly not having access to premium bullpen assets, is not nearly as significant as the win percentage you add if you hold it to a 1-run lead.
I totally agree. Breaks the "no more than one run in any inning" streak too. Although to be fair a Donaldson HR would have done that too.
His rationale was that he didn't want to mess with the lineup because they were winning.
Just some follow up on this. The win expectancy percentage after the error was 89.3 percent. After the IBB it was 91 percent. After the hit it was 94 percent.
I don't have a win expectancy calculator, but if they get out of the inning at 2-1 the WE is probably in the 75-78 percent range.
Putting all this together, I think Tito was stuck with some shitting options and a low win percentage no matter what he decided, to the point where playing a hunch or hoping for a ground ball didn't really move the needle very much.
I don't have a win expectancy calculator, but if they get out of the inning at 2-1 the WE is probably in the 75-78 percent range.
Putting all this together, I think Tito was stuck with some shitting options and a low win percentage no matter what he decided, to the point where playing a hunch or hoping for a ground ball didn't really move the needle very much.
Well some of Tito's decisions were bound to not work out at some point. Starting Kluber, while I think it was a good idea, was debatable and it didn't work out. Now you have a rookie, whose name I imagine I will figure out at some point, starting tomorrow and while that doesn't mean a forfeit it certainly puts them at a disadvantage.
Assuming they lose tomorrow they'll need to win one at home.
His decision on the IBB was certainly questionable but as DDB pointed out he didn't have any good options there. The option he did pick certainly blew up on him but it likely didn't matter.
Assuming they lose tomorrow they'll need to win one at home.
His decision on the IBB was certainly questionable but as DDB pointed out he didn't have any good options there. The option he did pick certainly blew up on him but it likely didn't matter.
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I thought they were a bit fortunate to be up 3-0. I don't view either of these teams as a significant favorite. Sometimes a team goes up 3-0 because it's way better. Sometimes a team goes up 3-0 because, even when each game is a coin flip, it can come up heads three times in a row about 12 percent of the time. I think that's what happened in 2004, for example. And I think that's what's happening here.
So, no, not worried. Cleveland still are heavy favorites, have two home games left only needing one more win, and have a pitcher who can make it so you have to play them 7 innings against 9.
I am a bit worried since this is the scenario that could threaten the sanctity of the 04 comeback. A team short on pitching suffers an injury and has little left to resist. Plus I am worried because I live among annoying Jays fans that jumped off the Jays wagon onto the Yankees wagon in 96. They would somehow see the Jays coming back on Tito as a Yankee revenge.
I edited my post. But my point stands. There's little precedent that says just because the Blue Jays prevented the sweep, that there's reason for those rooting for the Indians to worry.
I wouldn't say I'm worried they are going to lose the series, I don't care enough to be worried about that.
All I was doing in my post was pointing out the situation. They have a completely untested rookie today, then Tomlin who is pretty mediocre and then Kluber on short rest for the second time.
The Indians are obviously heavy favorites to win but due to the issues with the Cleveland starting pitching the Jays have a shot to come back.
All I was doing in my post was pointing out the situation. They have a completely untested rookie today, then Tomlin who is pretty mediocre and then Kluber on short rest for the second time.
The Indians are obviously heavy favorites to win but due to the issues with the Cleveland starting pitching the Jays have a shot to come back.
There's no recent precedent in EITHER direction.
Unless you include 2004 in which case, 100% of the time that a team down 3-0 wins game 4, they end up winning the series.
Also the Indians are the only team in the Majors this year to NOT have a 4 game losing streak.
Of course that was when they had that awesome starting rotation still mostly intact to prevent long losing streaks
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Of course that was when they had that awesome starting rotation still mostly intact to prevent long losing streaks
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Except Tomlin hasn't been mediocre since his return to the Indians rotation on September 14th. Six starts, with two games with 2 ER allowed and four games with only a single ER allowed. Aside from his August meltdown, he's been a pretty consistent and valuable starter.
You're ruining the narrative.
While you are correct he has been solid in September he has done it with hardly any strikeouts and an insanely low BABIP. I think it's likely he is still pretty mediocre and is getting a bit lucky.
Citing one series in the history of baseball as reason for concern should be the dictionary definition of small sample size
And that's always valid.
But this concept was from yesterday's NL game thread...from our very same SSSer
I believe the same one who before game three was talking about how the indians bullpen was three guys and a bunch of crap
It's kind of shitty luck that it took a full year for Napoli to get better after they took his face apart and put it back together.
Speaking of Ron D., I am enjoying both his and Ripken's commentary. I also appreciate Ripken's comments on finer points of execution, on baserunning especially. Easy subtleties to miss for those not knowledgeable.
I am appreciating too, just watching Playoff Tito in action. I think he personally impacted Game 3 particularly. You can almost see the wheels turning. He really is a pro. Reminds me of what the Red Sox squandered.
As much as I like Napoli, I just hope the rumours about the Sox interested in bringing back for 2017 are just that rumours. Do not want another hitter that has long stretches of no production as we have enough of those already.
Stats about what someone has or hasn't done when down 3-0 really aren't relevant any more to this series. The score now is 3-1. How many teams have come back from 3-1 down? About 10 out of 70 or so. The fact that they lost the first three before winning their one doesn't really change any of that. Whichever of the first four games that a team wins to make it 3-1, it's still 3-1 and the relevant question still is how hard is it to win 3 in a row for a 3-1 team.
Listening to the Cleveland radio broadcast and they are ripping the Toronto hitters for complaining about balls and strikes. It's pretty hilarious.
I don't get that Jaguar ad. They take a car that has had a distinctive profile and make it ordinary looking, and then try to sell it as exemplary of extraordinary people who can "get away" with things that others can't. It's as though they were targeting Trump voters.