Sebastian Vollmer headed to IR

BigSoxFan

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Barring something unforeseen, the defense is going to be good again. We'll still whine about the secondary in the same manner that we whine about Farrell but I'm pretty comfortable with that unit as long as the injury bug doesn't decimate us.

However, the offense concerns me. Right now, the OL is a major question mark, the running game is primarily relying on a plodder like Blount, Edelman's foot may potentially be weakened, and we'll have a green QB against 4 tough defenses to start the season. We've had a few near misses in the playoffs the past decade or so and a lot of them were rooted in poor OL play. I'm happy that Dante is around because this unit is going to be a roller coaster.

The personnel on offense, even with Lewis out, is very, very good. I really don't know how you stop the Gronk/Bennett duo with Edelman/Amendola finding open spaces, Hogan/Mitchell on the outside, and White serving as a quality outlet. We now have better depth in the event that Gronk or Edelman go down with an injury. The real mystery now is whether or not the OL can give Jimmy/Brady time.

As always, I remain hopeful but I think there will be a lot of OL angst this year.
 

heavyde050

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Barring something unforeseen, the defense is going to be good again. We'll still whine about the secondary in the same manner that we whine about Farrell but I'm pretty comfortable with that unit as long as the injury bug doesn't decimate us.

However, the offense concerns me. Right now, the OL is a major question mark, the running game is primarily relying on a plodder like Blount, Edelman's foot may potentially be weakened, and we'll have a green QB against 4 tough defenses to start the season. We've had a few near misses in the playoffs the past decade or so and a lot of them were rooted in poor OL play. I'm happy that Dante is around because this unit is going to be a roller coaster.

The personnel on offense, even with Lewis out, is very, very good. I really don't know how you stop the Gronk/Bennett duo with Edelman/Amendola finding open spaces, Hogan/Mitchell on the outside, and White serving as a quality outlet. We now have better depth in the event that Gronk or Edelman go down with an injury. The real mystery now is whether or not the OL can give Jimmy/Brady time.

As always, I remain hopeful but I think there will be a lot of OL angst this year.
Hopefully the OL can gel by the time Brady comes back. He doesn't need that much time to carve up a defense (just more time than he got in the AFC Championship Game).
 

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Hopefully the OL can gel by the time Brady comes back. He doesn't need that much time to carve up a defense (just more time than he got in the AFC Championship Game).
That's all we can hope for because the pieces are in place for a powerful offense. And it still will be even with some up and down line play because I don't think Brady has had personnel as good as this since 2007.
 

heavyde050

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That's all we can hope for because the pieces are in place for a powerful offense. And it still will be even with some up and down line play because I don't think Brady has had personnel as good as this since 2007.
I tend to agree with that assessment, but the 2007 OL picked a horrible time to turn into a turnstile. Here is to hoping the 2016 OL fairs better when it matters most.
 

Shelterdog

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I tend to agree with that assessment, but the 2007 OL picked a horrible time to turn into a turnstile. Here is to hoping the 2016 OL fairs better when it matters most.
So one of the things that I just love about the Pats is that Stephen Neal did something to his knee in that superbowl (I think I've heard it was an acl) and stopped playing sometime in the first half but the Patriots never, ever, ever mention it, let alone use it as an excuse. It was a bad day against a great dline but there's an injury that just gets forgotten. Kaczur also missed a couple of snaps.

Bad day against a great dline but also injuries were a factor.

http://archive.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/10/18/not_playing_really_hurt_ross_and_neal/?page=full
 

heavyde050

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So one of the things that I just love about the Pats is that Stephen Neal did something to his knee in that superbowl (I think I've heard it was an acl) and stopped playing sometime in the first half but the Patriots never, ever, ever mention it, let alone use it as an excuse. It was a bad day against a great dline but there's an injury that just gets forgotten. Kaczur also missed a couple of snaps.

Bad day against a great dline but also injuries were a factor.

http://archive.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/10/18/not_playing_really_hurt_ross_and_neal/?page=full
I agree that the Giants' DL was great that day, and that the Pats' OL was a bit hobbled with injuries. I don't really want to dwell on the past; I just wanted to bring up that the OL (for whatever reason) has sometimes come up small at the worst times.
 

mulluysavage

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If we just don't have the injury disaster we had on the line last year, we'll be allri--- Crap. It's already happened. This sucks.

Meet Marcus. He'll be your RT this season. Stork as subersub, RT, C, RG? Maybe we see Mason on the field in one of those club-casts.

I laughed at Stitch's fear of missing the playoffs. Then I remembered that it's Jimmy G for the first 4 games - this patient now has a lot of complicatons to deal with.
 

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I'm not as worried about RT. I think between Cannon, Waddle or dark horse Stork they can get league average play from that position. The presence of Bennett on the field also lessens the impact of using Gronk to get a chip block in during his release.

The terrifying part is that there is literally no depth at LT. It's the harder position to play, we've seen Cannon there and he is not anywhere in the ballpark of an NFL left tackle, Fleming pretty clearly is not quick enough to play the left and quick googling of Waddle shows that he seems to have never played the left side in college or the NFL.

I have no idea what they do if Solder goes down again. Throwing the rookie out there would be tough. I know that only trash heap guys will be available at the cut downs, but I'd personally feel better about some LT depth that has at least played there before and is not named Cannon.
 

Super Nomario

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I'm not as worried about RT. I think between Cannon, Waddle or dark horse Stork they can get league average play from that position. The presence of Bennett on the field also lessens the impact of using Gronk to get a chip block in during his release.

The terrifying part is that there is literally no depth at LT. It's the harder position to play, we've seen Cannon there and he is not anywhere in the ballpark of an NFL left tackle, Fleming pretty clearly is not quick enough to play the left and quick googling of Waddle shows that he seems to have never played the left side in college or the NFL.
Waddle was a college left tackle, per his NFL.com profile (Cannon and Thuney were, too). I don't think there's much difference between LT and RT these days, with Watt, Miller, Mack, Wake, Hali, etc. predominantly lining up on the right side. Which might not make anybody feel better.

Marcus Cannon is--on paper--a pretty solid replacement--he's entering his sixth year, the Pats thought highly enough of him to give him a very good contract for a third tackle, and RT is clearly his best position.

The big question is whether the player we see this year matches the resume. I think he gets a bum rap here--I think we completely overrate how good an average starting NFL tackle or corner should be--but who knows.

I also predict that Cannon is going to gets about 40 million in free agency at the end of the year and that this board is going to be shocked. Tackle is just that hard to play.
In general I agree that people are focusing too much on Cannon's poor 2015 and not his whole body of work. $40 MM is misreading the market, though. Only one RT has a contact that big. Oher's 3-year, $21.6 MM ($9.5 MM guaranteed) is probably the ceiling. It would not surprise me to see him have a pretty good year and the Pats sign him to like a 3-year, $18 MM deal or something and go into 2017 with Cannon plugged in at RT again. Even the high picks NE has made at tackle weren't day one starters and whoever they draft at 27 or 32 or whatever is probably not going to be a plug-and-play guy - assuming they even go tackle in the first round.
 

Shelterdog

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In general I agree that people are focusing too much on Cannon's poor 2015 and not his whole body of work. $40 MM is misreading the market, though. Only one RT has a contact that big. Oher's 3-year, $21.6 MM ($9.5 MM guaranteed) is probably the ceiling. It would not surprise me to see him have a pretty good year and the Pats sign him to like a 3-year, $18 MM deal or something and go into 2017 with Cannon plugged in at RT again. Even the high picks NE has made at tackle weren't day one starters and whoever they draft at 27 or 32 or whatever is probably not going to be a plug-and-play guy - assuming they even go tackle in the first round.
I came up with my 40 million WAG by taking the Austin Howard contract (5/30) and inflating it about 25% to account for cap growth; I'm predicting a generally bonkers offseason in terms of FA salaries; decent starting tackles (and I think that what Cannon will appear to be at the end of the year) just don't hit free agency that often.
 

bakahump

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Who did they face last year? Osweiler, Taylor (twice), Tannehill (twice), Fitzpatrick (twice), Roethlisberger, Weeden / Cassel, Bortles, Luck, Cousins, Eli, Bradford, Hoyer, Mariota / Mettenberger. I don't see much of a difference.
Well they did finish 12-4 last year.

And to go completely Eric Van on you....2 of those losses (PHI and Den) were pretty hokey ST inspired losses and one was in OT (Jets) . Just look at the win probability chart on Football Ref for those 3 games. Speaking of which, besides the 2 Jets Games game the Pats went into the 3rd quarter of every game with a pretty comfy outlook.


Also All were at the end of the year when injuries had decimated both sides of the ball.

Reasonable health, which i agree is a crap shoot in the NFL (and is already starting to rear its ugly head), and there is no reason 12-4 even WITH the Brady suspension isnt likely.
 

mwonow

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Yep. And to that point:

I wondered about this when the thread was started. What's the upside to IR? If Seabass feels better later in the season, they can bring him back from IR - but they can only do that with one player, right? If he just stays on PUP, he can come back if he's able, or IIRC, he'll just roll over into IR at the end of the period. It seems like an IR designation now would reduce roster flexibility without any corresponding benefit
 

Super Nomario

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I wondered about this when the thread was started. What's the upside to IR? If Seabass feels better later in the season, they can bring him back from IR - but they can only do that with one player, right? If he just stays on PUP, he can come back if he's able, or IIRC, he'll just roll over into IR at the end of the period. It seems like an IR designation now would reduce roster flexibility without any corresponding benefit
If he's PUP-eligible there's no advantage to putting him on IR. I've seen different things about whether he is in fact PUP-eligible (if he practiced at all, he'd have to be IR), but my understanding is he is still on the preseason PUP and can stay on the regular-season PUP.
 

RedOctober3829

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If he's PUP-eligible there's no advantage to putting him on IR. I've seen different things about whether he is in fact PUP-eligible (if he practiced at all, he'd have to be IR), but my understanding is he is still on the preseason PUP and can stay on the regular-season PUP.
I've seen the opposite on Vollmer. Since he participated in some portions of practice early in camp he's not eligible for the PUP list.
 

Super Nomario

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I've seen the opposite on Vollmer. Since he participated in some portions of practice early in camp he's not eligible for the PUP list.
I've seen people say that, too.

Vollmer was definitely on the PUP when the preseason opened on 7/25: http://www.patriots.com/news/2016/07/25/julian-edelman-among-7-pup-patriots

Of the 7 guys, Edelman, Mason, and Harbor were all activated. As far as I can tell, Vollmer, Amendola, Jackson, and Lewis were not. Volin reported yesterday that Vollmer was still on PUP, for what that's worth.

EDIT: Patriots.com doesn't help either. I wish there was some authoritative list for this.
 

lexrageorge

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I've seen the opposite on Vollmer. Since he participated in some portions of practice early in camp he's not eligible for the PUP list.
Did he actually participate? Because I don't recall seeing a report where Vollmer actually participated in a team practice or drill. Players on PUP are allowed to do their own drills separate from the rest of the team, and so perhaps he was doing some exercises on one of the remote fields with others on the PUP at the time. For example, I do believe it's allowed for say, Vollmer and Tre Jackson to go to one of the lower practice fields and do cone drills together under the supervision of one of the coaches.

If he did actually participate in a team drill, then he would no longer be on the preseason PUP.
 

RedOctober3829

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Did he actually participate? Because I don't recall seeing a report where Vollmer actually participated in a team practice or drill. Players on PUP are allowed to do their own drills separate from the rest of the team, and so perhaps he was doing some exercises on one of the remote fields with others on the PUP at the time. For example, I do believe it's allowed for say, Vollmer and Tre Jackson to go to one of the lower practice fields and do cone drills together under the supervision of one of the coaches.

If he did actually participate in a team drill, then he would no longer be on the preseason PUP.
I reached out to our friend Doug Kyed via Twitter DM to see if there was any clarity on this. Doug says he is still in fact on the PUP list. Problem solved.
 

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Obviously Vollmer being healthy is by far the preferred scenario. Among the scenarios where he is injured, though, PUP is as favorable as possible---it doesn't occupy roster spot or force early decision, and it enables exploration of other options while they figure out if he's coming back.

This doesn't change that losing a good lineman would hurt a lot, but I feel a little better than when the news first broke given PUP status.
 

koufax32

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If I understand the updated rules correctly, NE would basically have to choose who to bring back to active status at the six week mark, right? So aren't they faced with a Dion Lewis or Seabass conundrum?
 

Super Nomario

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If I understand the updated rules correctly, NE would basically have to choose who to bring back to active status at the six week mark, right? So aren't they faced with a Dion Lewis or Seabass conundrum?
No, there's no limit to the PUP list. They can only bring back one player who goes on injured reserve, but PUP is different.
 

Stitch01

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They also have more time than six weeks to activate players on PUP. Six weeks is just the earliest a player can be activated.
 

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They also have more time than six weeks to activate players on PUP. Six weeks is just the earliest a player can be activated.
More key guys go down, the more I'm getting on the "won't be shocked if not making playoffs" train. Not yet, but color me nervous.
 

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I'm not as worried about RT. I think between Cannon, Waddle or dark horse Stork they can get league average play from that position. The presence of Bennett on the field also lessens the impact of using Gronk to get a chip block in during his release.

The terrifying part is that there is literally no depth at LT. It's the harder position to play, we've seen Cannon there and he is not anywhere in the ballpark of an NFL left tackle, Fleming pretty clearly is not quick enough to play the left and quick googling of Waddle shows that he seems to have never played the left side in college or the NFL.

I have no idea what they do if Solder goes down again. Throwing the rookie out there would be tough. I know that only trash heap guys will be available at the cut downs, but I'd personally feel better about some LT depth that has at least played there before and is not named Cannon.
Waddle was a college left tackle, per his NFL.com profile (Cannon and Thuney were, too). I don't think there's much difference between LT and RT these days, with Watt, Miller, Mack, Wake, Hali, etc. predominantly lining up on the right side. Which might not make anybody feel better.


In general I agree that people are focusing too much on Cannon's poor 2015 and not his whole body of work. $40 MM is misreading the market, though. Only one RT has a contact that big. Oher's 3-year, $21.6 MM ($9.5 MM guaranteed) is probably the ceiling. It would not surprise me to see him have a pretty good year and the Pats sign him to like a 3-year, $18 MM deal or something and go into 2017 with Cannon plugged in at RT again. Even the high picks NE has made at tackle weren't day one starters and whoever they draft at 27 or 32 or whatever is probably not going to be a plug-and-play guy - assuming they even go tackle in the first round.
I am getting a Logan Mankins vibe on Thuney. My guess is that he will start the season at LG and would be slid over to LT if Solder were to go down.
 

Super Nomario

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I am getting a Logan Mankins vibe on Thuney. My guess is that he will start the season at LG and would be slid over to LT if Solder were to go down.
I think they think he can play LT, but as far as I know Thuney has only worked at LG in camp. If Solder goes down Week 3 again, they might bump Thuney outside, but if it's just pitch in for a game or two I think they'd go Waddle. Thuney might get more LT work in future years when he's settled in at LG.

There's also something to be said for not messing with what's working. I disagreed with the decision last year to move Vollmer off RT because at least that was one spot they didn't have to worry about. Vollmer wasn't good at LT and putting Cannon at his best position didn't help too much when had to face Von Miller. If Thuney is their best lineman playing LG and just adequate at LT, I'm not inclined to move him.
 
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Granted, Mason is now out for a bit, but given the relative numbers (if Cooper returns before September) on the interior of the OL, and given Stork's experience (however limited) playing RT last season, perhaps it's worth shoving Stork out there since we need tackle help? Also, isn't there a lesser likelihood of concussion-y stuff the farther outside he plays? I know, I'm reaching, but am I reaching a LOT?