The MLB Draft

Darnell's Son

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The .com is kicking off our draft coverage today with Cuz's weekly Minor League Report which looks at the top 10 picks from the 2013 draft to see where they are now in their progress through their respective systems.

We have a few interesting things planned including a look at the Red Sox history of drafting since the amateur draft started back in '65. If there's anything you would like to see let us know, no promises since it is short notice, and, no, we won't be doing mock drafts.

Also, if you have any ideas of your own that you would like to submit, or want to help in any other way you can always reach out to me, abs, Snod, or Cuz.
 

Montana Fan

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Darnell, with the ml forum dying since Cuz left, what about making this a draft discussion thread and beginning to migrate the ml discussions to the main board? The exception of course would be the Adopt a Prospect threads. Maybe make them a sub forum of the main board.
 

RoDaddy

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Justin Dunn of BC would be a good local story, although WEEI today cites Baseball America as making a good case for closer Zach Burdi, who could rise fast given our bullpen need this year
 
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MadStork

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You don't draft for need in baseball. You draft who you deem the best player might be regardless of position.
 

mwonow

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Wasn't Craig Hansen a high pick based on current ML need for a reliever?

MadStork is right - that's not a good path to go down
 

simplicio

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On the other hand Brandon Finnegan was a useful piece for the Royals the year he was drafted.

Yeah, you don't draft for need because most prospects are years away and that's a bit like long term weather forecasting. But if the goal at 1-12 is to find a guy to contribute in Boston and you're seeing a guy with close enough to ML-ready stuff that you're projecting a same year call up, I'd think the question becomes not whether you do it, but whether you can even still get him with the twelfth pick.
 

ehaz

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Drew Storen was taken with the #10 pick in the 2009 draft. He made his MLB debt in 2010 and contributed 5.5 bWAR in 6 seasons with the Nationals.

Yeah, I'd rather take the upside over the possibility that Burdi throws 12 innings of Matt Barnes level relief this year.
 

simplicio

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If those 12 innings mean we don't have to see Noe, or they mean Koji and Taz get a little more rest so they aren't out there getting killed in September, and we aren't as much in the hole when they hit FA at the end of the season, then yeah. Upside can be great, but it can also be Henry Owens. I want someone who can help the team.
 

Pilgrim

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Relief prospects bust just like everyone else. There is no trade off, you're just drafting a player with limited potential.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Paul: The local sport radio blog suggested the Red Sox taking Burdi at #12 with the hope he could help out the struggling bullpen this year instead of going the trade route. Do you think this is a realistic option?
Klaw: I think it’s ridiculous.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Relief prospects bust just like everyone else. There is no trade off, you're just drafting a player with limited potential.
Limited potential, but a 100-mph fastball. I wouldn't mind having Burdi in the organization.

The problem is in drafting a player like Burdi #12 and expecting he'll rise in-season to contribute positive MLB value. It's a waste of the pick, to satisfy an unrealistic hope.
 

MadStork

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Scouts say its pitching rich atop the draft? Does that translate into a pitcher being picked at 12? I don't know.

Sheffield of Vandy I've seen pitch twice. Generates quite a few swings and misses.
That is what I look for and 3 plus pitches.
Not saying he is the best available but a player that boston might look at..
 
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Bigpupp

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John Sickels did a community mock draft today, (so take that FWIW) and had the Sox taking high school RHP Ian Anderson. Other notable picks:

1 Philadelphia Phillies A.J. Puk, LHP, University of Florida
2 Cincinnati Reds, Nick Senzel, 3B, University of Tennessee
3 Atlanta Braves Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer University
4 Colorado Rockies Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS
5 Milwaukee Brewers Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS
6 Oakland Athletics Corey Ray, OF, University of Louisville
7 Miami Marlins Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS
8 San Diego Padres Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State University
9 Detroit Tigers Zack Collins, C, University of Miami-Fl
10 Chicago White Sox Mickey Moniak, Of, California HS
11 Seattle Mariners Forest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS
-------
20 Los Angeles Dodgers Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS
24 San Diego Padres Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt
34 St. Louis Cardinals Zack Burdi, RHP, University of Louisville
Edited to show that this was a community mock draft, and not Sickels.
 
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simplicio

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Keith Law also mentioned today that he's heard about the Sox being in on Virginia catcher Matt Thaiss.
 

santadevil

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On the other hand Brandon Finnegan was a useful piece for the Royals the year he was drafted.

Yeah, you don't draft for need because most prospects are years away and that's a bit like long term weather forecasting. But if the goal at 1-12 is to find a guy to contribute in Boston and you're seeing a guy with close enough to ML-ready stuff that you're projecting a same year call up, I'd think the question becomes not whether you do it, but whether you can even still get him with the twelfth pick.
If those 12 innings mean we don't have to see Noe, or they mean Koji and Taz get a little more rest so they aren't out there getting killed in September, and we aren't as much in the hole when they hit FA at the end of the season, then yeah. Upside can be great, but it can also be Henry Owens. I want someone who can help the team.
Ya, Red Sox aren't drafting a bullpen arm, hoping he makes the the show this year. They may draft a reliever, but I'm guessing it's very, very unlikely.
 

RedOctober3829

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There is no way they draft somebody based on current MLB need. At #12 they will draft best player available regardless of position. You can't shoehorn yourself into looking for positional need because there is no way of knowing what position some of the non-pitchers will be in 5 years.
 

simplicio

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I'm not advocating for it based on current need, though it seems to dovetail pretty perfectly there. I'm basing this on Baseball America's projection of him as setting up for Kimbrel, which I take to mean as good as or better than Taz/Ue/Carson, and their assessment that he's already close enough to to MLB ready that he can step into that role almost immediately. They also mention him at 17 with the Astros and call 20 with the Blue Jays his floor in the draft, so it doesn't seem like they're basing it on current needs either, but that he seems to be the best available reliever in the draft. Maybe they're just high on him; Klaw certainly disagrees, and I don't know a thing about him beyond their blurb. But if you tried to obtain a reliever of the caliber they're projecting through trade, what would it cost you? As much as what you'd get from a typical 1-12 pick in a weak draft year? Given the deals we've seen made for other high quality relievers lately, I'd guess it would be more.
 

Darnell's Son

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In SoSH.com's opening salvo of the week canonball1729 wrote an excellent piece on the relationship between the draft and everyone's favorite agent, Scott Boras.

The list of “firsts” and “highests” in draft bonus history now reads like a collection of Boras’s greatest hits, including the first major league contract for an amateur in draft history (McDonald), the first major league contract to a drafted high schooler (Todd Van Poppel, who signed a $1.2 million deal the year after McDonald) and eight of the ten largest signing bonuses of all time (including the most lucrative contract in history – Stephen Strasburg’s $15.1 million deal).
 
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MadStork

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I'm not advocating for it based on current need, though it seems to dovetail pretty perfectly there. I'm basing this on Baseball America's projection of him as setting up for Kimbrel, which I take to mean as good as or better than Taz/Ue/Carson, and their assessment that he's already close enough to to MLB ready that he can step into that role almost immediately. They also mention him at 17 with the Astros and call 20 with the Blue Jays his floor in the draft, so it doesn't seem like they're basing it on current needs either, but that he seems to be the best available reliever in the draft. Maybe they're just high on him; Klaw certainly disagrees, and I don't know a thing about him beyond their blurb. But if you tried to obtain a reliever of the caliber they're projecting through trade, what would it cost you? As much as what you'd get from a typical 1-12 pick in a weak draft year? Given the deals we've seen made for other high quality relievers lately, I'd guess it would be more.

Many of the scouting publications hype these players up to make themselves (the publication) stand out amongst the rest. That's perfectly fine.

Again, college ball is the equivalent of rookie ball or less.

Think about this kid on the mound in the 7th or 8th of close game vs Bautista, Donaldson and EE. He would have no chance brother!
 

Bowlerman9

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Wasn't Craig Hansen a high pick based on current ML need for a reliever?

MadStork is right - that's not a good path to go down
No, Craig Hansen was picked because he was far and away the best player available when the Sox picked. Most people thought he was going in the top 10 (more specifically, to the Mets at #9) but the price tag scared people away. Only reason Sox didn't take him at #23 was because they knew the Astros and Twins couldn't afford him, so they took Ellsbury at #23 and Hansen at #26.
 

burstnbloom

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That would be a huge score if he fell to 12. HS pitchers have a high flame out rate as we all know but he is an exceptional talent.
 

Bigpupp

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He seemed to be ranked in the top 5 in the limited stuff I've read. Would be a nice coup to have him drop to 12.
Number 1 on the MLB Pipeline rankings. There's are few reasons he's dropping, one of which being his asking price. I would love to pick him but he would require the Red Sox to punt on a few picks to save money.
 

Pilgrim

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He supposedly wants at least 4 million. Slot for #12 is 3.2, and they've got about 7.3 total, including the 5% over pool penalty. So he would be a pretty big dent in their draft, but it might be worth it.

Hes also a Red Sox fan.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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SemperFidelisSox

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If MLB wants this to a better televised event they need to do it after Super Regionals or move the draft to Omaha instead of MLB Studios. That way more of the top players can attend.
 

Byrdbrain

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I'm not watching so I can't confirm this was said but I want to believe:

Harold Reynolds, on MLB draft prospect Kyle Lewis. "He's 20 years old. That's what stands out. Most people are 21 at that age."
 

mwonow

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I feel like as the next few picks play out, we're going to get excited by the idea of this happening, and then he'll fall to the Sox and they'll draft someone that most of us will have never heard of.
Thanks - you did a great job of summing up the vague feeling I've had while waiting for 12
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I'm not watching so I can't confirm this was said but I want to believe:

Harold Reynolds, on MLB draft prospect Kyle Lewis. "He's 20 years old. That's what stands out. Most people are 21 at that age."
It was said. His meaning was that most college juniors are 21. Still funny as hell.