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geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
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Stats from Bill James On Line:

Shifts against RHH:

MLB Shifts on Balls in Play vs. RHBs vs. LHBs

{I really can't figure out how to post a table now...I'll try to make this read-able}

RHH LHH
2010 40 2,424
2011 84 2,273
2012 787 3,790
2013 1,718 6,416
2014* 4,032 9,757
*Pro-Rated

In 2015 about 1/3 of hitters are left-handed, which is historically consistent in recent years. 291 RHBs versus 159 LHBs (Yankees & Rangers lead in LHBs while Indians and Nats have fewest)

Therefore, there's a distinct prejudice through 2014 in shifting against lefties, albeit the percentage gap is closing. It certainly pays to be right-handed when it comes to seeing a shift.
 
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MR BIG STUFF

New Member
Dec 7, 2015
13
Quincy
Therefore, there's a distinct prejudice through 2014 in shifting against lefties, albeit the percentage gap is closing. It certainly pays to be right-handed when it comes to seeing a shift.
I'm thinking any RHB shift has been done through the years.

Moving people to the other side of the infield is the new deal.

EDIT- Moving the corner IF I mean.
 
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MR BIG STUFF

New Member
Dec 7, 2015
13
Quincy
Was not the Shift invented by Lou Boudreau against Ted? Or, at the very least Williams was the inspiration for it?

Shifts have been around for seventy years.
I hear you, but I don't think it's a shift without moving that corner.

They take the 3B and put it in the 2B hole,now.

Would you take away the 1B out to shift? I mean, you pretty much concede a hit a hit if Papi can swallow his pride.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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Mar 16, 2005
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There are many articles out there that talk about the shift and it's history. Vin Scully was curious about it and found out that it was first employed back in 1877. The first player it was employed regularly against was Cy Williams in the 1920s.

If you want to learn about how they calculate defensive numbers prior to 2002 I recommend reading this from Fangraphs.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Here's one I should probably know the answer to, but I'm not 100% sure on.

If a player, say Travis Shaw, is assigned to the major league roster, plays say 20 games, and is sent down for the remainder of the season, is he awarded the full annual major league minimum salary, or is it only applied to his time on the 25 man roster?

I'm pretty sure they're owed the full ~$508,000 - but want to be sure.
 

Darnell's Son

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If Shaw, or any pre-arb player, is sent down, he is paid the minor league salary for the level that he is assigned to.

So in your scenario, he would get paid 20 (or whatever) days pro-rated at the MLB salary, then if he stayed in Pawtucket he would be paid the pro-rated salary down there.
 
Dec 21, 2015
1,410
Dear SoSH: I have occasionally seen a quote, usually attributed to Bill James, to the effect of "any statistic which adds value should confirm your expectations 80% of the time and surprise you 20% of the time". Does anyone know where this is from, and if it is in fact a James quote? It has some wisdom that I'd like to share in other walks of life as well, but I'd like to be sure on my quote sourcing first.
 

Darnell's Son

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I can't find anywhere that he said it specifically, but an article on SABR.org mentinons it as does Tom Tango in a Fangraphs comments section.

From the SABR article:
In that sense, it satisfies Bill James’ “80/20 Rule”, which says that a good statistic should conform to our expectations most of the time but still surprise often enough to be interesting.
 

Hank Scorpio

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What's the basis for arbitration salaries? I get how the process works (two sides exchange figures based on their idea of what they're worth, try to reach an agreement, and if they fail a judge decides whose figure is closest to the actual value)...

For instance, MLBTradeRumors estimates Josh Donaldson to get around $12M this off season, which is probably about half of his open market value, and Manny Machado figures to get about $6M (again, according to MLBTradeRumors. Both are all-star third basemen, both are in their first year of arbitration, and both are MVP candidates. Donaldson is a better hitter, Machado has two gold gloves, but Donaldson is also a good defender, and Machado is also a very good hitter. Why such a huge discrepancy in their projected arb awards?

Also, I get that the arb process limits players to one team, thus lowering their market value, but how do teams and players come up with figures they think are fair? What is the arbitrator's ruling based on?

Is there more to it than just a giant game of financial chicken?
 

Darnell's Son

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From the Basic Agreement:
"(a) The criteria will be the quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his 20 overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal), the length and consistency of his career contribution, the record of the Player’s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries (see paragraph (11) below for confidential salary data), the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player, and the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance (subject to the exclusion stated in subparagraph (b)(i) below). Any evidence may be submitted which is relevant to the above criteria, and the arbitration panel shall assign such weight to the evidence as shall appear appropriate under the circumstances."

Notice the bolded, Donaldson made $4.3 million last year and Machado made $548k. Since Donaldson made considerably more last year than Machado did, he was bound to get more unless Machado had an otherworldly season while Donaldson had a horrible season/missed season. Also, the recent performance record of the Blue Jays gives him a leg up, how much? We can't know.

Teams and players have to use the above criteria to try and guess what an arbitrator would peg them at. The risk for both parties in going to an arbitrator is that after the arbitration panel hears both cases, they choose one of the salaries. They don't come up with their own number, or split it down the middle, one side wins and one side loses.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What's the basis for arbitration salaries? I get how the process works (two sides exchange figures based on their idea of what they're worth, try to reach an agreement, and if they fail a judge decides whose figure is closest to the actual value)...

For instance, MLBTradeRumors estimates Josh Donaldson to get around $12M this off season, which is probably about half of his open market value, and Manny Machado figures to get about $6M (again, according to MLBTradeRumors. Both are all-star third basemen, both are in their first year of arbitration, and both are MVP candidates. Donaldson is a better hitter, Machado has two gold gloves, but Donaldson is also a good defender, and Machado is also a very good hitter. Why such a huge discrepancy in their projected arb awards?

Also, I get that the arb process limits players to one team, thus lowering their market value, but how do teams and players come up with figures they think are fair? What is the arbitrator's ruling based on?

Is there more to it than just a giant game of financial chicken?
I think the key discrepancy is in the bolded part of your question. This isn't Donaldson's first year of arbitration, it's his second due to his partial seasons in 2010-2012. He qualified for Super-2 status and was eligible for arbitration despite not having a full three years of service time. His $4.3M salary in 2015 was a result of losing arbitration last winter. From there, it's how Darnell's Son lays it out.
 

InsideTheParker

persists in error
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Jul 15, 2005
40,371
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A friend of mine sent me the following blog post by Bill James. http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_contacct_theory_and_the_power_theory/
I find a lot in here to like, and a justification for my affection for certain players who may not be favorites here on Sosh. I find on this site a romance with power hitting and a relative disregard for table-setting. It seems to me that James, in this piece, argues for the opposite. Am I misunderstanding this piece?
 

iayork

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Apr 6, 2006
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A friend of mine sent me the following blog post by Bill James. http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_contacct_theory_and_the_power_theory/
I find a lot in here to like, and a justification for my affection for certain players who may not be favorites here on Sosh. I find on this site a romance with power hitting and a relative disregard for table-setting. It seems to me that James, in this piece, argues for the opposite. Am I misunderstanding this piece?
That's a really interesting piece. I can't comment there, but one thing I wonder about is whether the imbalance in favor of power that James talks about is a reflection of the increased size of the strike zone. If more pitches are strikes, and it's easier to strike out for that reason, then it makes sense to maximize your production when you do hit one. In other words, James is talking about the effect as if it's a choice on the parts of the batters, whereas it may be an outcome of the umpires' decisions. (Edit to note that if so, the effect should be increasing after 2010, which was when the zones started expanding.)
 
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Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
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That's a really interesting piece. I can't comment there, but one thing I wonder about is whether the imbalance in favor of power that James talks about is a reflection of the increased size of the strike zone. If more pitches are strikes, and it's easier to strike out for that reason, then it makes sense to maximize your production when you do hit one. In other words, James is talking about the effect as if it's a choice on the parts of the batters, whereas it may be an outcome of the umpires' decisions. (Edit to note that if so, the effect should be increasing after 2010, which was when the zones started expanding.)
Well .. As James points out this is a 90 year trend which has survived many different strikezones - so the recent incarnation probably has had little effect. I think the simple answer is money - and the fact that every generation is bigger and faster and stronger than the previous. Chicks did the long ball.
 

CreedBratton

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Hope this is the right spot,

What are everyone's thoughts on the Red Sox rotation, on April 14th they have a day off, will they skip the 5th starter the next day and start Price or just go 1-5 all the way through the first month?

I am wondering because I am buying tickets to a Yankees game the last weekend of April and right now Price is scheduled for the Sunday night game but if he is going to pitch Saturday I would buy those tickets. I live 7 hours away so can't really decide the night before, hence the getting tickets now.

Thanks!
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
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Mar 16, 2005
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They will probably go 1-5 through April. From what I understand, Rodriguez won't be pitching in a game until May. At this point, all we can do is match the dates up with the regular 5 day rotation.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Apr 1, 2008
167
Albany, NY
My question pertains to the psychological/confidence/sports psychology aspect in the performance of all players. Is Bob Tewksbury still working with the players? Maybe because I use confidence building techniques in my own business and am a big believer in that concept but I believe it to be an important component of overall production. I have looked at the main board and have not seen Tewksbury's name. I believe he started working with the Sox in '03 and despite the recent decline, the Sox are tied with the Giants for most WS wins in past fifteen years. Do Forum writers believe there is a connection or is it pure coincidence? Thanks in advance
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
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My question pertains to the psychological/confidence/sports psychology aspect in the performance of all players. Is Bob Tewksbury still working with the players? Maybe because I use confidence building techniques in my own business and am a big believer in that concept but I believe it to be an important component of overall production. I have looked at the main board and have not seen Tewksbury's name. I believe he started working with the Sox in '03 and despite the recent decline, the Sox are tied with the Giants for most WS wins in past fifteen years. Do Forum writers believe there is a connection or is it pure coincidence? Thanks in advance
Tewksbury's Wikipedia page has him still working for the Sox

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Tewksbury

However it now appears he has a new gig working for the MLB Player's Association

http://www.bu.edu/today/2014/the-performance-enhancer/

But this article has him still working the the RedSox as of last May .. So who knows ..

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/05/boston_red_sox_mental_health.html
 

dlaz

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Mar 24, 2010
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Has anyone heard of any Opening Day "festivities"? Who? When? Heading in to the game tomorrow and haven't found anything...yet
 

FinanceAdvice

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Tewksbury's Wikipedia page has him still working for the Sox

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Tewksbury

However it now appears he has a new gig working for the MLB Player's Association

http://www.bu.edu/today/2014/the-performance-enhancer/

But this article has him still working the the RedSox as of last May .. So who knows ..

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2015/05/boston_red_sox_mental_health.html
Thanks very much for the informative articles, especially the BU post. As of last year, it appears he is back and hopefully the owners and Dombrowski see the importance of a sports psychologist coach.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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FinanceAdvice

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Apr 1, 2008
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Which division does the Forum believe is the strongest this year? I realize the Jays, O's and Sox have potent bat power but Ive seen a few NL games and the Cubs, Nats, Mets and even Bucs and Cards have scary run totals.And as a secondary question, what significance does RS over RA (Pythagorean) play into overall success. Footnote: The Skanks have an overall run differential of -30 second to last in AL (LMFAO)
 

AlNipper49

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What do minor league GMs do? Do they have anything to do whatsoever with roster management or player development?
Minor League GMs are more about getting the seats filled than anything to do with baseball. The ownership teams of the minor league teams, however, will generally work closely with their respective Major League management teams.

Items such as quality of clubhouses, transportation, etc play a big part in their player development engine. Proper facilities, of course, play a huge role in the Major League team's ability to develop players. This plays a large role in minor league teams remaining affiliated with particular teams.
 

Number7

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Jul 15, 2005
25
Jupiter, FL
I'm sure someone here has done one of those Red Sox destinations? What are the thoughts on it? It doesn't seem like that great of a deal aside from paying the extra amount to be on the field for BP? Red Sox fan stuck in St Petersburg, FL and coming up in July...
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
37,054
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Not sure if this is even a possible data set, but I have always been curious on the following:

Winning % when scoring in more innings than your opponent, vs. winning % when scoring the biggest single inning within a game.

I would obviously expect both to be well over 50%, but wonder which one is higher. Guessing that scoring in more innings > having the biggest single inning, but would be interested to see how close it is.

I've also asked my brother (who has access to Elias) to help provide data.
 

JimBoSox9

will you be my friend?
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Nov 1, 2005
16,667
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Righties swing with their top hand, lefties swing with their bottom hand. In both cases it's the right hand, because society is generally racist towards left-handed people, particularly when it comes to forks.

COPY EDIT THAT, M*****F*****S!!!!!!!
 

mfried

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Nov 23, 2005
1,680
Koji's split/4-seamer mix seems to have changed. Can anyone verify my observation that he's throwing more fast balls - he seems to have less confidence in the split. If true, this is a major problem, for obvious reasons.
 

mfried

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NB: In Sunday's 11th inning save, Koji used his splitter much more and seemed commensurately much more effective.
 

iayork

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NB: In Sunday's 11th inning save, Koji used his splitter much more and seemed commensurately much more effective.
His pitch usage this year has been surprisingly in line with his career normals, actually. Thanks for flagging it, though, and let me know how you'd like to be acknowledged in the .com article.
 

kbourdon

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Apr 26, 2016
21
I have a question. What do the Sox management have to do to replace David Ortiz at the end of this year?
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
1,807
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If the Save stat is completely useless, what could we replace it with? For instance, out of a maximum WPA available, could pitchers be graded by % of Max WPA attained? Could that be compared with leverage? Maybe this already exists, if so where? Thanks
 

kbourdon

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Apr 26, 2016
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What happened to the pitching staff last night? Seemed we were off our game and our offense was quite until Papi with the Homer.
 

mfried

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His pitch usage this year has been surprisingly in line with his career normals, actually. Thanks for flagging it, though, and let me know how you'd like to be acknowledged in the .com article.
Returning to this issue. Koji has always depended on a mix of splitter and 4-seamer, and the numbers may have stayed "in line" this year. However, I have the clear impression that his warmups in the bullpen have told him that his splitter is/isn't working dependably, and that plays a big role in pitch selection when he gets in the game. Yesterday he didn't throw more than one effective splitter and we were lucky that Farrell yanked him before a lot of damage was done. I don't think that his problem is fatigue, merely loss of reliable feel for his splitter. This may prove to be a big issue going forward.
 
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Scott Cooper's Grand Slam

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Thinking wistfully about Anderson Espinoza and What-Couldda-Been, I'm wondering:

-Whatever happened to Juan Pena? Wikipedia has an accurate summary of his history (two great starts, took a line drive off the elbow, tore an MCL, and never got it back), but that story has always stuck with me. Especially considering the ace in 1999, what might've been... Are there players comparable to Pena, who burned brightly, immediately, and lost it all due to an injury so soon in their career?

-Also, TINSTAAPP. I know what it means, but what's the basis for it? Edit: Googling the term and the top result is Jonah Keri for Grantland: http://grantland.com/features/edwin-jackson-just-latest-example-future-ace-never-materialized/.
 
Dec 21, 2015
1,410
I would welcome an explanation (or even a .com article!) of the current Outfield's post-win celebration dance, what it is and why it's a little different every time. Every time it happens, the camera zooms in on them and I keep on wondering wtf I'm seeing. There's clearly an inside joke I'm not party to (not for the first time), but I can't be the only one who wishes he knew the deal.

MLB calls it a "Hit Dem Folks dance", but that doesn't look anything like it. And I'm not seeing much searching this site.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I would welcome an explanation (or even a .com article!) of the current Outfield's post-win celebration dance, what it is and why it's a little different every time. Every time it happens, the camera zooms in on them and I keep on wondering wtf I'm seeing. There's clearly an inside joke I'm not party to (not for the first time), but I can't be the only one who wishes he knew the deal.

MLB calls it a "Hit Dem Folks dance", but that doesn't look anything like it. And I'm not seeing much searching this site.
To the best of my understanding one guy .. The one with the "best game" is having a pantomime photo session done by the other two guys.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
4,711
I would welcome an explanation (or even a .com article!) of the current Outfield's post-win celebration dance, what it is and why it's a little different every time. Every time it happens, the camera zooms in on them and I keep on wondering wtf I'm seeing. There's clearly an inside joke I'm not party to (not for the first time), but I can't be the only one who wishes he knew the deal.

MLB calls it a "Hit Dem Folks dance", but that doesn't look anything like it. And I'm not seeing much searching this site.
The defining characteristic of a Hit Dem Folks dance is the flexing pose they all do together. The rest of it is improvised. You can see tons of examples on YouTube.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
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Thinking wistfully about Anderson Espinoza and What-Couldda-Been, I'm wondering:

-Whatever happened to Juan Pena? Wikipedia has an accurate summary of his history (two great starts, took a line drive off the elbow, tore an MCL, and never got it back), but that story has always stuck with me. Especially considering the ace in 1999, what might've been... Are there players comparable to Pena, who burned brightly, immediately, and lost it all due to an injury so soon in their career.
Juan Pena is my fault. Where I used to work, passwords were eight characters. I made mine JeffFrye and the next day he shreds his knee. Not being a superstitious person, I later made it Juan Pena. This was during his rehab. I think he lasted a week before destroyed his elbow again and I started using Yankee players.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
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Ok .. Here's a doozy .. Inspired by Aaron Sanchez's impending move to the bullpen.

Quite frequently one hears the following griping from old sports writers "pitchers are babied now a days.. Back in my day pitchers could throw 300 innings and make 40 starts. All this talk of pitch counts is ridiculous. .. " and so on.

Now, it is an undeniable fact that pitchers could throw 300 innings and make 40 starts and pitch counts didn't even exist.

So .. The question is two fold .. How to counter the above griping that it is merely a matter of choice by FOs .. And could it return?

As for countering the above argument my own theory is that stamina and health were preselected for in the minors. Sure .. It was nice if you had a guy who could throw mid nineties (that was pretty rare in the 60s and 70s) but what really mattered was a guy who could make every start and go deep into those starts. So a flame thrower who sadly lacked those traits ended up being released after hurting their arm ( Ken Brett being an excellent example) .
Teams didn't much care with this attritional approach as the dollars invested in prospects were minimal.

As for bringing back four man rotations .. Personally I think it unlikely as velocity is king and prospects HAVE to be babied due to the money invested.

Thoughts?
 

soxfan121

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Ok .. Here's a doozy .. Inspired by Aaron Sanchez's impending move to the bullpen.

Quite frequently one hears the following griping from old sports writers "pitchers are babied now a days.. Back in my day pitchers could throw 300 innings and make 40 starts. All this talk of pitch counts is ridiculous. .. " and so on.

Now, it is an undeniable fact that pitchers could throw 300 innings and make 40 starts and pitch counts didn't even exist.

So .. The question is two fold .. How to counter the above griping that it is merely a matter of choice by FOs .. And could it return?

As for countering the above argument my own theory is that stamina and health were preselected for in the minors. Sure .. It was nice if you had a guy who could throw mid nineties (that was pretty rare in the 60s and 70s) but what really mattered was a guy who could make every start and go deep into those starts. So a flame thrower who sadly lacked those traits ended up being released after hurting their arm ( Ken Brett being an excellent example) .
Teams didn't much care with this attritional approach as the dollars invested in prospects were minimal.

As for bringing back four man rotations .. Personally I think it unlikely as velocity is king and prospects HAVE to be babied due to the money invested.

Thoughts?
I dunno the answer to your questions, or even if those questions have answers, but I feel it is important to note that most of the guys who who could throw 300 innings and make 40 starts also regularly used "dirty" baseballs, as well as "doctored" the baseball.


You know, with like snot and Vagisil and Crisco.
 

phenweigh

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Aug 8, 2005
1,379
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I have the impression that David Price is missing location over the middle of plate more often this year, and that is contributing to the delta between his ERA and FIP/xFIP. It seems that a PitchFx study could confirm or contradict my impression. Can that be done?
 

iayork

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Apr 6, 2006
639
I have the impression that David Price is missing location over the middle of plate more often this year, and that is contributing to the delta between his ERA and FIP/xFIP. It seems that a PitchFx study could confirm or contradict my impression. Can that be done?
I've looked at Price a couple times this year, most recently less than a month ago, and I'm reluctant to keep hammering on the same topic all the time.

Last time, I did compare Price's pitch location from 2015 to 2016:
At the time my conclusion was "The overall patterns are quite similar, and if anything Price’s two-seam in 2016 is doing a better job of avoiding the center of the plate and spotting the edges of the strikes zone." I doubt running the same thing every couple weeks will be very useful.