2016 NBA Draft

HomeRunBaker said:

.Buddy Hield (would you take Grayson Allen as high as Hield is projected?) .

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Damn, why you gotta go and ruin Buddy for me? I do think he's a better shooter than Allen, with quicker feet (except when it comes to tripping opponents) and more finesse in his slashing, whereas Allen is more a head-down, power-to-the-basket type, which I don't think will translate as well. The question for me is how much to ding Buddy for his age. If I was watching a 20 year old playing like he's playing this year, I'd be very bullish, but while improvement is a good sign with respect to his work ethic, how close to his ceiling is he right now? Production-wise, I can see him as a Ben Gordon/Michael Redd type scorer, with a floor high enough for a pick in a weak draft. Plus, if I'm the house DJ of a lottery team, I'm relishing the chance to kick some old school De La Sol every night.

Brice Johnson really intrigues me with that Dallas pick. I missed the boat on projecting Aaron Gordon into the NBA; I didn't know his athleticism and energy would cover up his mediocre skills as well as they do. Brice Johnson is obviously older, but he has such similar traits. He'll defend, block shots, bring energy and rebound. At worst, he's a rotational Big.

EL Jeffe said:

Brice Johnson really intrigues me with that Dallas pick. I missed the boat on projecting Aaron Gordon into the NBA; I didn't know his athleticism and energy would cover up his mediocre skills as well as they do. Brice Johnson is obviously older, but he has such similar traits. He'll defend, block shots, bring energy and rebound. At worst, he's a rotational Big.

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Question is do we think we can get that from Mickey next year? I do think Johnson will be a decent bench big at the NBA level.

EL Jeffe said:

Brice Johnson really intrigues me with that Dallas pick. I missed the boat on projecting Aaron Gordon into the NBA; I didn't know his athleticism and energy would cover up his mediocre skills as well as they do. Brice Johnson is obviously older, but he has such similar traits. He'll defend, block shots, bring energy and rebound. At worst, he's a rotational Big.

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Brice's problem is that he has NO perimeter game whatsoever whereas Gordon is a much longer player who can step out. The measurements are going to be interesting for him and to see how his alligator arms hurt him once he competes against longer players. He has similar wingspan as a good number of guards in the league however offsets that with being a quick leaper.

He can find his niche in the right system and man he's an interesting skillset....but those damn arms!

How do you think he might compare to John Henson? Brice has never been the defensive presence that Henson was in college, but Henson was never the efficient offensive scorer that Brice is. They each are undersized and have bodies that can be bullied around.

I just checked Henson's stats, seems like he's falling off a lot.

Brice should be able to score at the next level but I'm not sure he will be much better than a 'replacement' player overall unless he significantly improves his focus on defense. That said, his massive improvement is a good sign and if he was a Sophomore then he'd be a lock top seven pick.

Drocca said:

How do you think he might compare to John Henson? Brice has never been the defensive presence that Henson was in college, but Henson was never the efficient offensive scorer that Brice is. They each are undersized and have bodies that can be bullied around.

I just checked Henson's stats, seems like he's falling off a lot.

Brice should be able to score at the next level but I'm not sure he will be much better than a 'replacement' player overall unless he significantly improves his focus on defense. That said, his massive improvement is a good sign and if he was a Sophomore then he'd be a lock top seven pick.

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I think he's a different type player than Henson with a stronger and more bouncy lower base.....he can use these strengths to become a nice second unit energy guy. Ironically, Jordan Mickey's name came up a few posts ago and I think they are fairly similar except for Mickey having a perimeter shot. Mickey's problem is understanding and executing NBA defensive schemes......he was completely clueless in his preseason game. One advantage Brice has is exposure of 4 years of M2M defense as opposed to zones that many college teams utilize so he figures to adapt much quicker.

This has not been a good March for the draft prospects. Murray not great, Brown horrendous, etc you really needed someone to make a leap and it's not obvious. Bender and his horrible play this year and unclear timing of when he comes has risen, which seems mind blowing.

I'm still of the mind that Simmons is the right pick at #1. I'm not sure he's the franchise changing talent he was rumored to be for years, but he brings a unique skill set that comes around every decade or so, and there isn't anybody else in the draft who jumps out as being safer or having upside that's obviously higher.

And for all of the talk about his lack of shooting, there's a pretty obvious comp for how he'll be used: Giannis Antetokounmpo. They're both 3/4 hybrids who handle the ball well, can't shoot at all, and need to run the offense as a point forward to be effective. I think his vision and passing is far ahead of Giannis' and that's a unique enough skill set in a 6'10 player to warrant the first pick.

not that Simmons has his kind of upside, but lebron also came into the league as a big 3 hybrid who handled the ball a lot & not a great outside shots.

That's true, but many of those guys could shoot free throws well already. Simmons is a mediocre FT shooter right now, which is a bit of a flag as far as his "shooting form" goes. There's a bunch of research showing your NCAA FT% and NCAA 3PT% are about equally good predictors of your NBA 3PT% are.

I'm not super worried about Simmons, but I do wonder a bit if Blake Griffin isn't a bad comp. That's a strange downside, but Blake's game is a bit awkward for the current NBA. I'm optimistic that's mostly a coaching issue however.

ALiveH said:

not that Simmons has his kind of upside, but lebron also came into the league as a big 3 hybrid who handled the ball a lot & not a great outside shots.

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There is a difference between not having a great outside shot and not having elite athleticism while being scared shit to even take an outside shot. LeBron also had great defensive upside unlike Simmons.

He'll be a good player no doubt as his ball skills and passing are so unique I'm not sure he's an All Star caliber player though without being a good/great defender on top of his other question marks.

Kliq said:

We reached a point in the CBB season where people get down on all the talent, it happens every year. Simmons isn't the perfect prospect but he is also only 19. He is supposed to have holes in his game. Plenty of good wing players were not good shooters at 19 but developed into at least a rage three point shooters.

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I keep saying this, but at 6'10" 240 Simmons is going to be playing the PF in the NBA. And if the teams drafting ahead of Boston are frightened off I trust Stevens and the current coaching staff to get everything possible out of him.

sure if simmons "falls" to boston. But with Pick no 1is it simmons or other? I don't know if simmons skillset is so unique, nor do I trust the development of a Jumper enough to draft someone with debatably equal talent in Ingram who would be easy to fit in ANY system. With Simmons I wonder if you have to tune your system to him if he cannot develop a shot...

I think I've said previously that Ingram is #1. I also think that's the general consensus now. The question is where does Simmons go after that?

#2

nighthob said:

I think I've said previously that Ingram is #1. I also think that's the general consensus now. The question is where does Simmons go after that?

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Do you feel whoever is at 2 would pass on him? GM's generally don't make bold moves like this as it could cost them their job or career if it backfires. Simmons, or whoever the bypassed consensus player is, could bust and the GM would still get a pass since it wasn't a controversial pick.

HomeRunBaker said:

Do you feel whoever is at 2 would pass on him? GM's generally don't make bold moves like this as it could cost them their job or career if it backfires. Simmons, or whoever the bypassed consensus player is, could bust and the GM would still get a pass since it wasn't a controversial pick.

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Yeah - no chance in hell Simmons falls past #2 unless there's some kind of injury.

HomeRunBaker said:

Do you feel whoever is at 2 would pass on him? GM's generally don't make bold moves like this as it could cost them their job or career if it backfires. Simmons, or whoever the bypassed consensus player is, could bust and the GM would still get a pass since it wasn't a controversial pick.

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I have Dunn and Murray in the same tier as Ingram and Simmons, so, yes, I do think there's a real shot that whoever's drafting #2 talks themselves out of him. D'Angelo Russell's late season surge in LA has probably done a lot for Murray's draft stock around the NBA (much the same was that Lil' Zeke's success has cleared the path for Kay Felder in the NBA).

nighthob said:

I have Dunn and Murray in the same tier as Ingram and Simmons, so, yes, I do think there's a real shot that whoever's drafting #2 talks themselves out of him. D'Angelo Russell's late season surge in LA has probably done a lot for Murray's draft stock around the NBA (much the same was that Lil' Zeke's success has cleared the path for Kay Felder in the NBA).

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I think the strong consensus is that there is a
Tier 1- Ingram, Simmons (in some order) then a pretty big gap until Tier 2. I would be completely shocked if one of those two falls past pick 2. Plus, isn't Dunn's shot a weakness like Simmons?

tbb345 said:

I think the strong consensus is that there is a
Tier 1- Ingram, Simmons (in some order) then a pretty big gap until Tier 2. I would be completely shocked if one of those two falls past pick 2. Plus, isn't Dunn's shot a weakness like Simmons?

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No it isn't but people like to harp on this from two years ago. Dunn shot 35% from 3 last year and 37% this year despite many attempts being desperation attempts against the shot clock after the zone offense failed vs the 30-second shot clock. He already has NBA 3-point range with soft touch and good rotation......the consistentcy will improve with repititions and not being asked to be the go-to guy from the 1.

I'm going to be tired of mocks really quick. I can't wait for all the declarations to be over so we don't have to project who is entering and who is not.

I LOVE Dejounte Murray but never thought we'd have a shot as he's be gone around 8 or 9. I still don't but placing him 26th in a mock right now is really a head scratcher here.....a 6-5 combo guard who leads his team in rebounds and assists and is super active! I'd put him in the future Turner replacement group with my binkie LeVert. He has all the NBA measureables going for him while only needing to improve his shooting as is the case with most young athletic kids.

He's been hidden out at Washington where everyone talks about the two California kids (Brown and Rabb) but the Huskies should have two lottery picks as well assuming D-Murray and Marquese Chriss declare.

HomeRunBaker said:

No it isn't but people like to harp on this from two years ago. Dunn shot 35% from 3 last year and 37% this year despite many attempts being desperation attempts against the shot clock after the zone offense failed vs the 30-second shot clock. He already has NBA 3-point range with soft touch and good rotation......the consistentcy will improve with repititions and not being asked to be the go-to guy from the 1.

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Dunn is my favorite player in the draft. I personally do not have the balls to take him 1 or 2, but I would place a wager on him being the most 'successful' pro three years out. It's five years out where Ingram and/or Simmons could catch up.

And you make such an excellent point about Dunn's shooting. I hope that teams do just look at the stats and not listen to their scouts, because that means he may fall to the Celtics.

No surprise, but Dunn officially declared today.

But, is there much chance the C's would take him?

If he's the best player available, yes.

Well, the most likely scenario (3rd or 4th) is that they will be drafting with him on the board along with at least 2 of Bender, Brown, Murray still available. So in that case, would they draft another guard even if they rate him slightly better than the others? I'm not sure.

If they have a worse pick, I'm not sure Dunn is still on the board at 5 or 6 as it likely means someone with need at guard skipped over them.

Right now my top 5 is Ingram, Simmons, Murray, Dunn, and Hield (with my normal caveat that I don't feel comfortable projecting eurostars based on mixtapes). I would imagine that Dunn is in the mix for them after Simmons and Ingram are off the board.

This team is more than a mid round pick away from contending (for the banner). If there is no chance at Durrant, or they are unable to land Horford and trade for George / Butler... I have been toying with the idea that the best route is to draft one, with an eye for them making the active roster. And with the other 7 - take the highest upside (or high floor) you can stash as they mature.

**caveat 1 - don't jump down 5 positions just to be able to stash someone

tbrown_01923 said:

This team is more than a mid round pick away from contending (for the banner). If there is no chance at Durrant, or they are unable to land Horford and trade for George / Butler... I have been toying with the idea that the best route is to draft one, with an eye for them making the active roster. And with the other 7 - take the highest upside (or high floor) you can stash as they mature.

**caveat 1 - don't jump down 5 positions just to be able to stash someone

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I'm not sure I follow you. What do you want the C's to do with Brooklyn's likely top 4 pick? Do you draft and stash at 16 and 22, even though the team could easily move on from Sully, Amir, Jerebko, Turner and Zeller?

Sounds like you're suggesting the C's draft Bender at 4 and keep him overseas, draft a rotation guy at 16 like Denzel Valentine and then draft guys like Tim Luwawu at 22, and a collection of Zhou Qi, Johnathan Jeanne, Ante Zizic, Juan Hernangomez and Vasilis Charalampopoulos with the 2nd rounders? That's the plan?

ElcaballitoMVP said:

I'm not sure I follow you. What do you want the C's to do with Brooklyn's likely top 4 pick? Do you draft and stash at 16 and 22, even though the team could easily move on from Sully, Amir, Jerebko, Turner and Zeller?

Sounds like you're suggesting the C's draft Bender at 4 and keep him overseas, draft a rotation guy at 16 like Denzel Valentine and then draft guys like Tim Luwawu at 22, and a collection of Zhou Qi, Johnathan Jeanne, Ante Zizic, Juan Hernangomez and Vasilis Charalampopoulos with the 2nd rounders? That's the plan?

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I laughed. Well played.

I suspect Ainge doesn't want to necessarily "build" through the draft and acquired so many picks as assets to make a Ray Allen-like trade after going all-in on Horford this summer.

We are strictly discussing which players Ainge will take at 3, 14, 21, 31 and 32.......yet we must keep in mind that many or even most of these picks will be included in trades and potentially a fairly significant one.

Even if it's not a pupu platter trade for a star, they can package picks to move up in the draft or do a belichikean trade into a future draft. It's highly unlikely they draft-and-stash more than a couple guys given they've almost never done it in the past.

So wouldnt it be a Charalampopoulos Platter?

My caveat stated they shouldn't over reach for players, but given where they are picking there seem to always seem to be "stashable" players there without the need to over draft. I think the team should be looking to add one rookie to the roster this draft. I am don't anticipate a consolidation of picks available that would interest me over using those picks as pure lottery tickets, to pay off 3+ years down the road.

I think the primary ways of improving this team (in quality of play next year) is through FA/Trade market. If luck into Ingram - great, but he will not add wins next year. The remaining picks are not nearly as valuable (maybe a dallas early teens pick can be paired with others to consolidate) - but what amongst the roster and that lesser collection of picks gets you butler? Butler would start with that nets pick IMO and include NBA ready players - not 5 picks 30-60.

ElcaballitoMVP said:

Sounds like you're suggesting the C's draft Bender at 4 and keep him overseas, draft a rotation guy at 16 like Denzel Valentine and then draft guys like Tim Luwawu at 22, and a collection of Zhou Qi, Johnathan Jeanne, Ante Zizic, Juan Hernangomez and Vasilis Charalampopoulos with the 2nd rounders? That's the plan?

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My goal would be to improve the quality of the team for next year. The big FA's are the first targets followed by Butler / George trades. Outside of that - I don't think we can improve upon Jerebko with a player in this draft with a pick outside of 15. I don't know how ainge values Bender, and I haven't seen him workout - so no real thoughts on him. But maybe in that next tier (not simmons/ingram) e.g. Hield and draft him for the active roster. What about the remaining picks? I would get as creative as ever and yeah - would consider stashing a ton of folks. Without a Durrant plus one of Horford/Butler/George addition this team is not going to contend for a title in the next 3 years. Staying competitive and buy some lottery tickets that may pay off in 3 years is something I would consider.

ALiveH said:

Even if it's not a pupu platter trade for a star, they can package picks to move up in the draft or do a belichikean trade into a future draft. It's highly unlikely they draft-and-stash more than a couple guys given they've almost never done it in the past.

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Is it possible to give a team like Miami two 2nd rounders (the Heat gave away a ton of future draft picks) for the right to swap 1st rounders over several seasons? Like say for example #35 + #45 at this moment for the right to swap Draft picks in ´20 or ´22 (Miami Heat don´t have a 1st round pick in ´21)?

tbrown_01923 said:

My caveat stated they shouldn't over reach for players, but given where they are picking there seem to always seem to be "stashable" players there without the need to over draft. I think the team should be looking to add one rookie to the roster this draft.

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The league doesn't work this way anymore with the expansion to 15 players where only 13 dress and the rotation is typically 9-10 men. Even the veteran teams competing for championships carry multiple rookies as you don't sign veterans to not dress and they aren't eligible for the D-league.

The Cavs carry 2 rookies, the Spurs 3, and most importantly is Ainge's recent record which has us at 4 which doesn't include James Young who is essentially a rookie. There is no reason to believe we won't carry 3 rookies and 5 first and second year players next season.

While it is possible that they will carry 3 rookies, I doubt that they would then also carry 5 players with two or fewer years of experience. That would only leave 7 adult players. They need more than that. The kiddie corps will likely consist of James Young (who is not an adult despite his two years of NBA experience), Rozier, Mickey and possibly Hunter, who appears useless to my eyes. Hopefully they find a way to shed Hunter.

Koufax said:

While it is possible that they will carry 3 rookies, I doubt that they would then also carry 5 players with two or fewer years of experience. That would only leave 7 adult players. They need more than that. The kiddie corps will likely consist of James Young (who is not an adult despite his two years of NBA experience), Rozier, Mickey and possibly Hunter, who appears useless to my eyes. Hopefully they find a way to shed Hunter.

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The NBA roster is 15. Having 5 first and second year players would result in 10 veterans next season just as it is currently.....not the 7 you are claiming.

Not when you add 3 rookies. Or perhaps I misunderstood you. I thought that you were suggesting 3 rookies and 5 more kids.

Koufax said:

Not when you add 3 rookies. Or perhaps I misunderstood you. I thought that you were suggesting 3 rookies and 5 more kids.

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Simply misunderstanding. What I meant was a similar balance as this year with a TOTAL of 5 first and second year players.


Shifting gears.......these next few weeks we are going to be hearing A TON of underclassmen utilizing the more relaxed NCAA rules on testing the NBA waters and declaring without signing with an agent. Word out of U. of Washington is that the Huskies Dynamic Duo of Dejounte Murray (I LOVE this kids game!) and Marquese Chriss will leave school by entering the draft AND SIGNING with an agent ending their college eligibility. This is BIG news for the Celtics as their inclusion adds late lottery/mid-first round depth to this draft.

Figured I'd post this here. Key dates surrounding the draft.


April 13-16 -- Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (Portsmouth, VA)

April 24 -- NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)

May 11-15 -- NBA Draft Combine 2016 (Chicago)

May 17 -- NBA Draft Lottery 2016

May 25 - NCAA Deadline to withdraw from NBA Draft while retaining collegiate eligibility.

June 13 -- NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)

June 23 -- NBA Draft 2016


Edit: oooops, forgot to include the May 25th NCAA deadline that I imagine at least one kid will fail to follow proper procedure and lose his eligibility as a result.

I am sure Isaiah would love to get some fellow Huskies in Boston with him. I really enjoyed Woj's podcast with Isaiah, Seattle roots run deep in the NBA.

Calapari tweeted yesterday that each and every single one of his draft eligible players will declare and take advantage of this.

HomeRunBaker said:

Figured I'd post this here. Key dates surrounding the draft.


April 13-16 -- Portsmouth Invitational Tournament (Portsmouth, VA)

April 24 -- NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline (11:59 p.m. ET)

May 11-15 -- NBA Draft Combine 2016 (Chicago)

May 17 -- NBA Draft Lottery 2016

June 13 -- NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline (5:00 p.m. ET)

June 23 -- NBA Draft 2016

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Also, March 30 is the McDonald's All-American game for those who want to get a head-start on next year's tank watch!

Jed Zeppelin said:

Also, March 30 is the McDonald's All-American game for those who want to get a head-start on next year's tank watch!

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Great point considering that Brooklyn doesn't figure to make a huge leap anytime soon! Keep in mind that the #1 guy Henry Giles won't play as he's recovering from ACL surgery and another Top-5 guy Dennis Smith enrolled early at NC State after graduating HS in December so he wouldn't be eligible and he is also recovering from an ACL.

Stephen Zimmerson joins the Washington pair of Chriss/Murray and declares while signing with an agent. It's important for all to recognize who is running blindly without representation hoping to get a Portsmouth invite to open eyes for a Combine invite and to interest teams in bringing in for an individual workout. I mentioned this earlier in that I LOVE the NCAA relaxing these eligibility rules however the next step is to allow for some level of professional representation.

I believe it's crucial for a rookie to have representation leading up to the draft. The agents have connections to the combine-specific training centers where they will prepare for the combine and individual workouts. The agents will be the one organizing and structuring the individual workouts including any flights, hotels, rental cars, etc and can negotiate which skills/drills his client will participate in. A team may want to see the player in a 5-on-5 setting, 3-on-3 or 1-on-1......teams are going to push the envelope so the agent must control the workout including the length as there may be 8 workouts in a 10 day period.

There isn't a 19-year old around who can perform these tasks to the level of an agent while still focusing on his primary task. If you gave one of these kids an opportunity to do it by themselves they (or their family/friend) would schedule a 2pm in LA and a 9am the next day in Orlando without checking flights first. As it is I'm in FAVOR of allowing kids access to agents throughout the entire process WITHOUT losing their eligibility if they choose to return to school. An agent can gather much more information than a teenager in relation to where he projects to be drafted. Let's not forget how delusional these kids are having grown up being told how they are the man since pre-puberty.

Speaking of...Cheick Diallo declares without an agent after putting up 16 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks...per 40 minutes. It's fair to extrapolate 7 mpg right? Right? His 23 blocks in 200 minutes is impressive at least.

Diallo has the physicals to be a modern 4. I'm choosing to write off his freshman year as Kansas thing. He's certainly worth an early #2. I think Chriss projects as the better player because he's already shown an aptitude for shooting the ball, but barring that Diallo has a lot of upside.

Jed Zeppelin said:

Speaking of...Cheick Diallo declares without an agent after putting up 16 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks...per 40 minutes. It's fair to extrapolate 7 mpg right? Right? His 23 blocks in 200 minutes is impressive at least.

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I saw him out up like 10/5 in the final 5 minutes of the Austin Peay blowout a few weeks ago. Two other games were 30+ point wins over Holy Cross and Loyola (MD) with close to double doubles in garbage time.

Those projections I'd take with a large grain of salt.

Diallo is a complete lottery ticket. Worth a shot with one of our 50 second rounders but I'm not really bullish on him given how raw he is.