And if so, I suspect Dombrowski's "we're basically done" pronouncement will be easily broken“@JeffPassan: From the not-a-surprise department: Multiple GMs say because of the price of free agents, they expect trade action in Nashville to be big.”
Assuming the Sox can't dump Hanley or Pablo, what are their FA needs?And if so, I suspect Dombrowski's "we're basically done" pronouncement will be easily broken
First, I wouldn't make that assumption. Then, there's nothing that says it has to be a free agent.Assuming the Sox can't dump Hanley or Pablo, what are their FA needs?
With reports of so many in the Sox FO expressing shock at the money he would receive, and the reports that they met only with Price, Greinke and Zimmermann, I don't see that happening.Curious. I mentioned when the Price signing happened that it would be a pie in the sky idea to get Cueto as well. Well if the Dodgers don't get him perhaps it might be a good idea to offer him a 3 year deal with a higher AAV in order to secure him and allow him to hit the market again after proving health
So, you justify a conclusion you have zero chance of knowing by making assumptions on two possibility that you have zero chance of knowing.Really, unless you could trade Pablo or Hanley without paying the freight (very unlikely) or trade Castillo for good value (maybe possible) there is unlikely much positive that could be done.
That's not the point.Why, you see many moves that are LIKELY that would be positive?
Discuss all you want. But doing so from a perspective of knowing what you're talking about is better.I'm sorry, I mistakenly thought this was a Red Sox discussion board. I must have made a mistake somewhere that this was only for Red sox front office people.
I wonder if they could use him or Kelly to package with Panda or Hanley for something more, well, useful. For example, Miley was apparently a 2.5 WAR pitcher last year and according to Fangraphs worth $20M or so, which given his contract should be super valuable to some team.“@jcrasnick: #Redsox are getting feelers on Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, even Clay Buchholz. They’ll listen to trade pitches in Nashville.”
Without doing any research at all, my gut says that Miley would be great in the bullpen – he seems to have a rubber arm; doesn’t have a lot of endurance (maybe it’s just my perception but he seemed to have a few outings where he flamed out in the 5th or 6th, plus the fielding and holding runners on would help too.BTW, a little value-added thing about Miley I hadn't noticed: he's a good defender, and good at holding runners. He ranked #12 among 78 qualified pitchers in DRS in 2015, and tied with two other guys for #2 in rSB. Over the four years he's been a full-time starter, those ranks are #10 and #2 out of 96 pitchers who've averaged 125 or more innings per year. Not too shabby.
Miley projects to be one of our most valuable pitchers, and a consistent innings eater. It feels like it would be a huge mistake to convert him into relief.Without doing any research at all, my gut says that Miley would be great in the bullpen – he seems to have a rubber arm; doesn’t have a lot of endurance (maybe it’s just my perception but he seemed to have a few outings where he flamed out in the 5th or 6th, plus the fielding and holding runners on would help too.
OPS by inning 2015I wonder if they could use him or Kelly to package with Panda or Hanley for something more, well, useful. For example, Miley was apparently a 2.5 WAR pitcher last year and according to Fangraphs worth $20M or so, which given his contract should be super valuable to some team.
Without doing any research at all, my gut says that Miley would be great in the bullpen – he seems to have a rubber arm; doesn’t have a lot of endurance (maybe it’s just my perception but he seemed to have a few outings where he flamed out in the 5th or 6th, plus the fielding and holding runners on would help too.
If the Red Sox go into 2016 counting on Joe Kelly to be anything in the rotation I will not understand. Miley would have to be moved for a very, very good piece.
The Sox currently have seven guys who are either going to be on the major league roster or exposed to waivers of some form or other. Price, Porcello, Buchholz, Kelly, Miley, Rodriguez, Wright.Trading Miley for a bullpen arm seems like a really, really bad idea.
I'm not sure you're suggesting it but the people that keep saying Rodriguez to AAA is an option need to stop. I feel like I read it once a week. Rodriguez is starting the year in the rotation.Rodriguez won't be subject to waivers. He can just be optioned to Pawtucket. You could keep Wright in the pen and start Price, Buch, Porcello, Miley, Kelly if and only if Kelly has an excellent spring.
Why? Because you like watching him pitch? He can be optioned, his secondary pitches need work, and he needs to keep his innings down a little. It's by far the most logical option if no one gets hurt or traded or suddenly looks awful in spring training.I'm not sure you're suggesting it but the people that keep saying Rodriguez to AAA is an option need to stop. I feel like I read it once a week. Rodriguez is starting the year in the rotation.
What would you propose they do if all seven pitchers (Price, Buch, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, Rodriguez, and Wright) are performing well and healthy? It's entirely reasonable to suggest that they give Kelly a couple turns through the rotation while Eduardo is on strict pitch counts in Pawtucket until Kelly proves he can't hack it or someone gets injured.I'm not sure you're suggesting it but the people that keep saying Rodriguez to AAA is an option need to stop. I feel like I read it once a week. Rodriguez is starting the year in the rotation.
Doubront?I keep telling you that Felix will be in Boston
Your theory as to how this will shake out would make a fascinating thread on its ownI keep telling you that Felix will be in Boston
While the surrounding logic there is essentially sound in itself, this is one of those instances (imo, and similar to the "Victorino is going to be our 4th outfielder" talk last winter) where paper theory tends to fall apart when applied to how these things usually play out in a real world scenario.Why? Because you like watching him pitch? He can be optioned, his secondary pitches need work, and he needs to keep his innings down a little. It's by far the most logical option if no one gets hurt or traded or suddenly looks awful in spring training.
Put Wright in the bullpen and trade one of Buchholz, Kelly, or Miley or put Kelly in the bullpen. There is virtually no chance that everyone who thinks they're going to be competitive is going to get through spring training with an intact rotation. There's no way to argue that Rodriguez isn't in the top 5 of Sox starters. It's a stretch to argue that he isn't in the top 3. He's got nothing to prove in AAA.What would you propose they do if all seven pitchers (Price, Buch, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, Rodriguez, and Wright) are performing well and healthy? It's entirely reasonable to suggest that they give Kelly a couple turns through the rotation while Eduardo is on strict pitch counts in Pawtucket until Kelly proves he can't hack it or someone gets injured.
Further, Eduardo pitched 170 innings last year between Pawtucket and Boston, assuming a 20% increase in innings places him at a 204-inning cap. If the team makes it to the playoffs he will hopefully need to approach and perhaps exceed that cap. I'm not advocating that they go into Spring Training planning to have him start in AAA, but dismissing it out of hand is foolish. It's entirely possible.
I think the argument wasn't about keeping Wright in the rotation, but all of the other five.Seriously. If you're worried about his innings because of possible postseason implications, then you can manipulate the rotation over the course of the season to skip him here and there. Personally I'm not sure why one would want to send him to AAA in order to fit Wright into the rotation. Frankly I think short of injury, there's very little chance we don't see Rodriguez playing a prominent role from opening day. And I'm not sure why you wouldn't want that to be the case.
Um, I believe the point was precisely that no one is going to say it."Great overall job last year kid, and fantastic end to the season. No doubt you earned your spot in the bigs and are clearly a big piece of this team's future. Unfortunately, we've decided to go with the lesser talent and career underachiever for your spot. I mean Kelly did manage to look good for that month before we were forced to shut him down for the year. Plus we just aren't sold he can make the transition to bullpen, and the pro-hoarding crowd over on SoSH who love their potential upside would have our heads if/when we shipped him out for something that projects to be a better overall organizational fit."
Who is going to say this bullshit? I nominate this for the dumbest post of all time.
And there's also no way to argue that if all six of those guys are healthy and none of them have shit themselves on the mound in spring training that sending Rodriguez down isn't the best use of available resources. You can add a caveat that changes Darnell's position if you want, but the scenario he is talking about is one where all six are healthy and look roughly like they did down the stretch. In that case, sending Rodriguez down is the most logical option.Put Wright in the bullpen and trade one of Buchholz, Kelly, or Miley or put Kelly in the bullpen. There is virtually no chance that everyone who thinks they're going to be competitive is going to get through spring training with an intact rotation. There's no way to argue that Rodriguez isn't in the top 5 of Sox starters. It's a stretch to argue that he isn't in the top 3. He's got nothing to prove in AAA.
All the reasons DD stated that would make trading for a #1 SP apply in spades to King Felix.I am curious as to if there has been some discussion of this depth that could be traded to Seattle for King Felix. He is owed a lot of money and Dipoto seems willing to deal and has had a good look at the farm. I'm not saying he comes cheap....but the stars could align on this one.
This is an interesting thought. Let's assume for a minute we'd be happy to jettison Sandoval, and would be happy to hand 3B to Shaw/Marrero and SP5 to Kelly, and game it out.I wonder if they could use him or Kelly to package with Panda or Hanley for something more, well, useful. For example, Miley was apparently a 2.5 WAR pitcher last year and according to Fangraphs worth $20M or so, which given his contract should be super valuable to some team.
The points that you make would make Miley very attractive to a contender that needs 190-200 innings out of the back end of the rotation. Sounds like someone who could be useful in Boston. I'm sure they'll move one of them, Porcello could even be an option due to age. I don't think that would be possible however unless they were willing to eat some of that contract though. Porcello becomes a lot more attractive as a 16 million dollar a year arm as opposed to 20. In the end they'll probably trade Miley.This is an interesting thought. Let's assume for a minute we'd be happy to jettison Sandoval, and would be happy to hand 3B to Shaw/Marrero and SP5 to Kelly, and game it out.
Miley was worth two interesting pitching prospects a year ago, and the only things that've happened since then is that he's thrown another healthy 190 IP season with a 3.81 FIP and signed to a very team-friendly deal that bought out his arb years in exchange for a perfectly reasonable team option. And one other thing happened, which is that contracts for pitchers exploded. So Miley suddenly has a fair amount of surplus value. He's under contract for his age 29-30 seasons, with a $12m option on his age 31.
But how much surplus value? His three year fWAR numbers: 1.8, 1.5, 2.6. A 3-2-1 weighted projection suggests 2.1 fWAR at age 29; let's give him credit for the same 2.1 at age 30, before docking him a quarter of a win due to age-related decline at 31. So round it off to 6 wins, under contract for $6m, $9m, and then a club option for $12m. Compared to $8m/win on the FA market, Miley's value proposition is closer to $4.5m/win. That's a $21m surplus.
Sandoval's three year fWAR numbers are 2, 3.1, and -2.0. The 3-2-1 weighted projection suggests about a third of a win at age 30, before any (further) age-related decline, but that's probably a poor way to project him. On the FA market, that has a value of about $3m. Sandoval is owed about $76m over four years, so the value deficit is pretty stark, especially if Sandoval is projected to decline below replacement. I'm not sure Miley's $21m of surplus value moves the needle, unless another club has a *much* rosier evaluation of Sandoval than that.
This is why I think we can't deal Sandoval right now (the same analysis applies to Hanley). If he were to perform even a hair above replacement level in 2016, that would do a lot to rebuild his value. If he has a good year, he won't be hard at all to move given the scarcity at his position (nor would we want to until Moncada or Devers start knocking on the door).
TL;DR. I don't think dealing Miley, Sandoval and $40m for an A-ball reliever and a PTBNL improves the club. With our depth (Holt, Shaw, Marrero) we are in better position than most clubs to bank on Sandoval's (considerable) upside — this guy can be and has been a pretty great player. If he still hasn't shown anything by June, I'm starting to think about releasing him. We'd have to eat the whole deal to trade him anyway.
I'd be all for a Joe Kelly for Keone Kela swap.“@nickcafardo: Joe Kelly’s name has been brought up a lot in trade talks. Texas very interested.”
Carson Smith very much fits the description of the kind of guy I'd want in a trade like that: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=smith-009car. Not sure he alone would be enough for either Buchholz or Miley, but a good start.@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #Mariners talking to #RedSox about trade for starting pitcher. Target is Buchholz or Miley, not clear.
Carson Smith would be cool, but that kinda leaves the Marines bullpen looking pretty weak, unless I missed something in DiPoto's flurry of activity (totally possible). I guess the Ms could try to sign some FAs to shore things up, but a lot of the better relievers are getting signed already. It'll be interesting to see what else DiPoto does out there. Doesn't seem like he's finished.Carson Smith very much fits the description of the kind of guy I'd want in a trade like that: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=smith-009car. Not sure he alone would be enough for either Buchholz or Miley, but a good start.
That's not even hard to argue, let alone impossible.And there's also no way to argue that if all six of those guys are healthy and none of them have shit themselves on the mound in spring training that sending Rodriguez down isn't the best use of available resources.
They aren't similar. They aren't even close to similar. Kelly is a guy who has always had good stuff but hasn't been able to manage it. Buchholz is a guy who has an ace ceiling but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Miley is just a durable guy who's not great but doesn't suck. Rodriguez is the guy who is the youngest, has the most cost controlled years ahead of him, and looks like could be anchoring the rotation for the next decade. There's a decent chance Price is here for three years then gone. If and when he goes, you want to have an ace on hand so you're not tempted to sign someone who is 33. Rodriguez is your best shot at having that, and sending him to AAA doesn't further that goal.Looking at FIP and xFIP makes things very unclear and while smas made some excellent points about Porcello consistently under performing his fielding independent metrics, that's different than suggesting 2015 is what we should expect going forward. I don't see a reason why Rodriguez should stand out against the other three and if they are all similar, you send down the asset you can send down to maintain control of as many major league quality arms as you can because you will absolutely need more than 5 to get through the season. Add in that Rodriguez needs to refine his secondary pitches and this makes far more sense than banishing Kelly to the bullpen where there really aren't that many indications he's likely to be more effective.
You say "barring a trade or injury" like they're both semi-random things the club can't control. I expect there will be a trade--and I'm totally fine if it happens the day before the season starts if an injury hasn't made the issue moot already. I'm going to be at least a little bit surprised if there isn't a trade made before the end of the witner meetings. I expect that when the guys in the front office are sitting around thinking about the rotation, that Rodriguez' name is written in ink. I expect that the only talk of sending Rodriguez down is an acknowledgement that it's technically possible.Eduardo is young enough that we should expect he will improve going forward, but Kelly is just entering his prime and started pitching pretty late in life. He may well also improve. Miley is what he is, but given his consistency, contract and durability, there is no way they move him to the pen to make room for Rodriguez. Barring a trade or injury, I expect Rodriguez to start the year in Pawtucket.