2016 Starting Rotation/Bullpen Spillover

Rasputin

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Can someone that thinks we should trade Buchholz explain what kind of return they think we would get?
Something of moderate value. A reliever and a prospect, maybe a package of a few prospects. Nothing earth-shattering, but worth something.

And now for something completely different.

I totally don't get the mindset that wants to trade Miley. The error bars on what we're going to get from Buchholz, Kelly, and Rodriguez are pretty high, and frankly, the error bars on what we're going to get from Porcello is probably more variable tan we'd like. Having the stability that Miley represents is a good thing.
 

DJnVa

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Something of moderate value. A reliever and a prospect, maybe a package of a few prospects. Nothing earth-shattering, but worth something.
I don't know. The things that make you want to trade Buchholz (health, consistency, etc.) are what makes him tough to trade. I think his upside, in an organization he grew up in, is worth more than a fungible RP and a C level prospect. Which, honestly, I think we wouldn't even get.
 

nvalvo

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You'd have to really hate DIPS theory to jettison Miley, career FIP 3.80 and with two years remaining on a 3/$18 deal, in favor of Leake, career FIP 4.21 on a more expensive deal.

The appeal of Leake is that he's really young (28 in 2016), and like Miley, he takes the ball reliably and throws innings. But he strikes no one out — like, meaningfully fewer than Miley, who's hardly a strikeout artist.

Basically, Miley has value because he's better than Leake, and only a year older, and Cherington signed him to a highly team friendly deal. Teams that are wrinkling their noses at giving Mike Leake 4/$60m should want to offer meaningful value for Miley at 3/$18, with an option for a fourth year at $12m.

There's a scenario, now that the wallets seem open on Yawkey Way, in which it makes sense to sign Leake, deal Miley to e.g. the Cardinals or the Giants or another contender on a budget who needs starting pitching, and basically use that as an avenue to turn money into prospects, either for development, or to flip for Strasburg at the deadline when the Nationals disappoint again (or whatever). But in a world where we're running out of 40-man spots and high-minors playing time, I'd probably only be interested in individual high-impact kinds of prospects, and I'm not sure I see a return that would make sense.
 

Devizier

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Why not keep the rotation intact, with Kelly (or Rodriguez) in a swing role? There won't be a shortage of opportunities for a sixth starter, and there will be a number of starts for a seventh and eighth starter, as well.
 

geoduck no quahog

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...I totally don't get the mindset that wants to trade Miley. The error bars on what we're going to get from Buchholz, Kelly, and Rodriguez are pretty high, and frankly, the error bars on what we're going to get from Porcello is probably more variable tan we'd like. Having the stability that Miley represents is a good thing.
Only rationale I can come up with is the handidness. Looking at 2015 there's a notable split - not so much over his entire career. Meanwhile, who doesn't absolutely love to watch Miley pitch his no-fucking-around-get-on-the-mound-and-throw routine?

If LHP is an issue, the other alternative is to put Rodriguez into Pawtucket where he can keep learning/refining, probably hold down his innings total, and reduce service time.

Have the Red Sox ever had 3 LH Starters in the rotation? Could be interesting.
 

Darnell's Son

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Why not keep the rotation intact, with Kelly (or Rodriguez) in a swing role? There won't be a shortage of opportunities for a sixth starter, and there will be a number of starts for a seventh and eighth starter, as well.
This. We all acknowledged that a starter was needed to make this a competitive team, and now we want to deal away our depth...because? Our farm system doesn't need to be re-stocked. Having pitching depth allows the team to weather the inevitable DL stints that the starters will go on. It also allows the Sox to make a trade midseason if another player is injured. Trading away a starter right now, makes no sense.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Opening day:
Price
Buch
Porcello
EdRod
Miley

Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Layne, Ross, O'Day/Sipp, Wright/Kelly/Barnes

Owens in AAA as spot starter depth (maybe Kelly also, but I think Kelly could be a 7th inning weapon right now if he's willing to accept it, and to save Taz's arm). Owens/Wright/Kelly should be ready to step up when inevitably Buch's next bugaboo occurs
 

Rasputin

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I don't know. The things that make you want to trade Buchholz (health, consistency, etc.) are what makes him tough to trade. I think his upside, in an organization he grew up in, is worth more than a fungible RP and a C level prospect. Which, honestly, I think we wouldn't even get.
That's reasonable, and in many cases I'd agree with you.

He's here for a maximum of two more years unless he does something in those two years to convince us he's a lot more consistent/healthy than he has been. Price, Porcello, Kelly, Rodriguez, even Miley, they're all under team control for longer than Buchholz.

For a guy with his ceiling, he's remarkably cheap.

We have other guys who have high ceilings. Maybe not as high, but high. There was a lot of talk a year ago about how Porcello's career trajectory made him look like a guy who was just about to hit his prime and while 2015 was a hell of a bump in the road, it's still true. Eduardo Rodriguez sure as hell looks like an ace in the making. Joe Kelly has great stuff and he looked like he'd figured out what to do with it late in the season.

Maybe a deal doesn't work out. Maybe someone gets hurt and we need Buch to pitch even if it's a half a season. Maybe a lot of things. I just know that when I look at the team going forward, Buchholz is the starter I care the least about keeping.
 

YTF

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Buchholz was hurt, Porcello was a mess, for a good part of the season it seems like Kelly couldn't get through 5 innings without 100 pitches thrown, Rodriquez had some pitch count issues and now that Price is on board it's a good idea to get rid of Miley?
 

Rasputin

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Why not keep the rotation intact, with Kelly (or Rodriguez) in a swing role? There won't be a shortage of opportunities for a sixth starter, and there will be a number of starts for a seventh and eighth starter, as well.
Why the hell would you ever put Rodriguez in a swing role?

There are going to be plenty of opportunities for a sixth starter and a seventh and maybe an 8th.

The thing is, we already have a swing guy who is out of options and perfectly fine for the role. His name is Steven Wright. Yeah, Kelly's better, but if he's in the bullpen and pitching well, you want him in the end game mix, and if he's not pitching well, you don't want him pitching at all.

We could send Rodriguez down, but that would be madness.

You could put Miley in a swing role, but that would be pissing all his value away.

And while we're at it, today's bullpens don't usually have a swing guy. They're one inning guys and loogies the whole way.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Regarding Eduardo Rodriguez:

30 of his 52 ER came in 4 of his 21 starts, accounting for 15 of his 121.2 IP.

Basically he had 4 starts in which he pitched 15 innings to the tune of an 18.00 ERA.
He was very obviously tipping his pitches in at least one of those 4 stinker games, perhaps more.

And in the other 17 starts, he had a 1.86 ERA over 106.2 IP.

Take that for what it's worth.
 

Rasputin

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Regarding Eduardo Rodriguez:

30 of his 52 ER came in 4 of his 21 starts, accounting for 15 of his 121.2 IP.

Basically he had 4 starts in which he pitched 15 innings to the tune of an 18.00 ERA.
He was very obviously tipping his pitches in at least one of those 4 stinker games, perhaps more.

And in the other 17 starts, he had a 1.86 ERA over 106.2 IP.

Take that for what it's worth.
I think it was obvious in two or three of them. There was his first terrible start, the one after which Remy was surprised they were talking openly about it. There was one a couple weeks later where they were talking about it in game. I think he was doing it a lot in his third crappy start. The fourth one, I think, is the only one where the runs weren't largely attributable to pitch tipping.
 

koufax32

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Regarding Eduardo Rodriguez:

30 of his 52 ER came in 4 of his 21 starts, accounting for 15 of his 121.2 IP.

Basically he had 4 starts in which he pitched 15 innings to the tune of an 18.00 ERA.
He was very obviously tipping his pitches in at least one of those 4 stinker games, perhaps more.

And in the other 17 starts, he had a 1.86 ERA over 106.2 IP.

Take that for what it's worth.
Somewhere, EV is smiling...with a sword.

Joking aside this is an example of a cherry picked SS being a true outlier to be taken with a grain of salt. I would imagine the only debate here would be how big that grain is.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Somewhere, EV is smiling...with a sword.

Joking aside this is an example of a cherry picked SS being a true outlier to be taken with a grain of salt. I would imagine the only debate here would be how big that grain is.
Are you suggesting he wasn't tipping pitches? At the very minimum 2 of them are pretty much video confirmed.

It didn't take a trained or expert eye to see it. You could literally call his pitches out of the stretch 5 seconds before he delivered the ball.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Somewhere, EV is smiling...with a sword.

Joking aside this is an example of a cherry picked SS being a true outlier to be taken with a grain of salt. I would imagine the only debate here would be how big that grain is.
We're talking about a 22-year old pitcher who just completed his rookie season. There's a 121-2/3 inning body of MLB work to draw upon.

EVERYTHING is a small sample size In those circumstances; and EVERY attempt to mine for trends will be forced to cherry pick.

Would you prefer we reference his calm eyes and elegant gait? Or should those of us who think he'll become a damn good pitcher sooner rather than later say nothing to those who argue for giving him more time in AAA, simply because he's the only guy to have a freely accessed option?
 

In my lifetime

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Every year, in the winter the consensus is the RS have too much of something
Too much catching
Too much starting pitching
Too many outfielders

Then the season starts and injuries invariably happen.
The RS now have the luxury of a true Ace, and then 5 pitchers (Buch, Porcello, Erod, Miley, Kelly) who can be considered at various #2-5 pitchers. They have extra depth in Owens and Wright.
I actually think the RS should consider a modified 6 man rotation where Price starts every 5th game. That would last a month until someone gets hurt and then they will have a solid 5 man rotation. During the times when all our healthy back to the modified 6 man rotation. 1 pitcher down --> normal 5 man rotation. 2 pitchers down, then Owens or Wright steps in. In these days where injuries to pitchers are so frequent, 6 pitchers who are league average or better is a great problem to have. And if a team makes you an great offer to fill another need, then fine make a move. But I don't see any reason to trade starting pitching just to be able to name the 5 man rotation now.
 

koufax32

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Sorry if I miscommunicated. I am saying that cherry picking in the neovan style is not really productive or helpful in predicting future performance. The above referenced sample is a legitimate cherry pick because there is obvious correlation between his tipping pitches and the results. It cannot therefore be classified in the neovan style. I absolutely agree 100% with you, BKP and SBSF.
 

NoXInNixon

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I actually think the RS should consider a modified 6 man rotation where Price starts every 5th game. That would last a month until someone gets hurt and then they will have a solid 5 man rotation. During the times when all our healthy back to the modified 6 man rotation. 1 pitcher down --> normal 5 man rotation. 2 pitchers down, then Owens or Wright steps in. In these days where injuries to pitchers are so frequent, 6 pitchers who are league average or better is a great problem to have. And if a team makes you an great offer to fill another need, then fine make a move. But I don't see any reason to trade starting pitching just to be able to name the 5 man rotation now.
This would be a great idea if players were robots. We have no idea how pitchers who are used to a certain schedule will adjust to having sometimes five, six, or seven days between starts. Maybe the extra rest helps them, or maybe their rhythm gets thrown off. They have to determine who they think their five best starters are, and start the season with them. The rest get stashed in the bullpen or Pawtucket. DD should certainly be listening to offers, and if he gets a deal he really likes for Miley or Kelly or Buchholz, he should take it because Owens, Wright and Johnson provide sufficient depth to survive an injury or two. But I agree there's no pressing need to do something drastic yet like a six man rotation or dump a perfectly good pitcher for peanuts.
 

dbn

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What Nixon said but also there are three off days in the first two weeks, plus somebody is likely to be not 100% at the start of the season anyway.

If Price, Buchh, Porc, Rodriguez, and Miley are all ready to go in April, move Kelly to the pen with the understanding that he will be in the rotation if/when needed. Adjust as necessary as the season plays out.
 

RI 2 VA Sox Fan

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I believe this ownership's priority is winning now while maintaining an eye on sustaining success over time. They will assess that SP is deep but not excessively so with an incomplete bullpen and DL stints a sure thing. Unless someone wows them or there is a package deal that helps them move Hanley, I would expect Kelly to upgrade the bullpen and Owens or Johnson to be called up when SP depth is needed.

The SP and bullpen depth may be a luxury for teams that don't have the Sox's resources. I don't think they are f'n around. The Sox will go into the season armed and ready for a full season run at another championship.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Kelly's second half was pretty good - if he can carry over that success to this next season he will be in that starting group. Regardless of the opinions on who will be the starting five, it's nice to know we have depth and have the opportunity to argue who will be in the top 5.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Kelly's second half was pretty good - if he can carry over that success to this next season he will be in that starting group. Regardless of the opinions on who will be the starting five, it's nice to know we have depth and have the opportunity to argue who will be in the top 5.
His second half was nearly identical to his first half aside from LOB% (and thus ERA).
 

Rasputin

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His second half LOB% was a very reasonable 76.4%, nothing to indicate extraordinary luck. His BB/9 also went down from 3.74 to 2.72, which is significant.
The thing is, with Kelly, it doesn't divide at the half. His good streak started Aug 7. Just taking bbrefs game logs and splitting them out based on that date, you see him giving up 21.8% line drives before, and 17.8% line drives after, which mostly went to more ground balls and a few more fly balls. It's obviously a small sample because it's just eight starts, but it's a little something to hang your hat on.

Just for yucks, I looked at GIDPS and he had .51/9 before his good streak and 1.37/9 after. I'd like to think that's because he was getting more ground balls, but the sample sizes are small enough that it could just be noise.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Kelly has a high ceiling, as do Rodriguez and Owens. Price, Buccholz and Miley have reached their ceilings. I don't know what to say about Porcello...could he greatly improve?

My point? Don't give up on Kelly. If he gets his act together, a future rotation of Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Owens (is awfully left -handed) has high potential.
 

Fireball Fred

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I've said it before, but I have a lot of trouble with a rotation that includes both Buchholz and Kelly. Each is sometimes very good, but neither has shown he can produce a full season. It's a misallocation of at least moderately valuable resources. To my mind, either Kelly to the bullpen, or trade one of them.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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The thing is, with Kelly, it doesn't divide at the half. His good streak started Aug 7. Just taking bbrefs game logs and splitting them out based on that date, you see him giving up 21.8% line drives before, and 17.8% line drives after, which mostly went to more ground balls and a few more fly balls. It's obviously a small sample because it's just eight starts, but it's a little something to hang your hat on.

Just for yucks, I looked at GIDPS and he had .51/9 before his good streak and 1.37/9 after. I'd like to think that's because he was getting more ground balls, but the sample sizes are small enough that it could just be noise.
Remarkable how much better the pitching staff got after Pablo and Hanley weren't out there, huh?
 

Pilgrim

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The problem with Joe Kelly's nasty stuff is that it just isnt that nasty. His fastball has a lower swinging strike% than Wade Miley, Henry Owens or Brandon Workman. The good stuff/bad results archetype certainly exists, but you should be able to see some sort of evidence of the good stuff.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Remarkable how much better the pitching staff got after Pablo and Hanley weren't out there, huh?
This.

Hanley and Panda weren't both in the bottom-three worst players by fWAR in baseball last year because of their respective bats.

Well, let's say not only because of their bats.
 

phenweigh

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Kelly has a high ceiling, as do Rodriguez and Owens. Price, Buccholz and Miley have reached their ceilings. I don't know what to say about Porcello...could he greatly improve?
When I watch Miley, I think David Wells without the consistent command. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibilities that Miley can improve his command. I get that he's almost 30 and he probably is what he is and a decline in stuff (velocity and break) can be expected, but improving command at 29 doesn't seem like a crazy outcome.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Kelly has a high ceiling, as do Rodriguez and Owens. Price, Buccholz and Miley have reached their ceilings. I don't know what to say about Porcello...could he greatly improve?

My point? Don't give up on Kelly. If he gets his act together, a future rotation of Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Kelly, Owens (is awfully left -handed) has high potential.
Hell yes he can, and he probably will. Look at Porcello's line from 2015 and the two things that jump out at you are the terrible strand rate and the terrible HR/FB rate, along with the declining GB%. Steamer sees both of those things leveling out and Porcello at 3.74 FIP and 2.8 WAR.

Numbers that, by the way, suggest he isn't actually overpaid. And if you think Porcello would get less than his current contract if he were a FA this year, I'd take note of the current Jeff Samadzija negotiations. They're saying Shark is going to get at least $90m over 4 years. Would you trade Porcello years 27-30 for Samardzija 31-34 at even money? I wouldn't.
 

C4CRVT

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What are people's thoughts on having a rotation with 4 lefties? If Kelly is moved to the pen and then Buchholz goes down, that leaves two of the top three options to replace him in the rotation as left-handed throwers and a knuckleballer. (Owens, Johnson, Wright).

I wonder what it would take to pry one of Kubler/Carassco from Cleveland. They have no lefties in their top 6 SP.
 

The Boomer

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What are people's thoughts on having a rotation with 4 lefties? If Kelly is moved to the pen and then Buchholz goes down, that leaves two of the top three options to replace him in the rotation as left-handed throwers and a knuckleballer. (Owens, Johnson, Wright).

I wonder what it would take to pry one of Kubler/Carassco from Cleveland. They have no lefties in their top 6 SP.
I thought the same thing but also with respect to the Mets (Matz notwithstanding). A package with Owens or Johnson plus other considerations for young RHPs of at least equal value might balance the roster a little. Joe Ross with the Nationals is another pitcher like this. Miley is too much of an innings eater to trade away now. Ed Rod is close to untouchable. Owens or Johnson for a comparable young depth RHP makes more sense.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
BTW, a little value-added thing about Miley I hadn't noticed: he's a good defender, and good at holding runners. He ranked #12 among 78 qualified pitchers in DRS in 2015, and tied with two other guys for #2 in rSB. Over the four years he's been a full-time starter, those ranks are #10 and #2 out of 96 pitchers who've averaged 125 or more innings per year. Not too shabby.

do any of those 4 lefties have reverse splits?
MLB samples are probably too small for this to matter, but Owens and EdRo both had reverse splits this year. Owens has swung between a reverse split and no split through his minor league career, while Rodriguez has swung all over the place--reverse split one year, normal split or no split the next.

Miley and Price both have modest-sized normal splits for their career. Price had a smallish reverse split in 2015.

Of the bunch, Owens seems the most likely to show a reverse split going forward, since his minor league track record supports that.
 

Rovin Romine

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In 2015, the AL .OPS'd .730 overall, with .732 against lefties, and .729 against righties.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/31/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
Toronto crushed lefties with an .818 OPS. Tampa was .759. NYY: .749. Bal: .662.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/32/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
Against righties: Tor: .791, Bal: .752, NYY: .741, Tampa: .703.

I'm sure those numbers can be broken down in a much more sophisticated way, and that dominant or good lefty pitchers remain just that - dominant or good pitchers. I'm also sure that signings/bouncebacks will change those numbers from year to year. For example, Boston was .736 v. R, .753 v. L. (In 2014, they managed .682 v. R, .690 v. L.)

It's interesting to see though.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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In 2015, the AL .OPS'd .730 overall, with .732 against lefties, and .729 against righties.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/31/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
Toronto crushed lefties with an .818 OPS. Tampa was .759. NYY: .749. Bal: .662.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/32/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true
Against righties: Tor: .791, Bal: .752, NYY: .741, Tampa: .703.

I'm sure those numbers can be broken down in a much more sophisticated way, and that dominant or good lefty pitchers remain just that - dominant or good pitchers. I'm also sure that signings/bouncebacks will change those numbers from year to year. For example, Boston was .736 v. R, .753 v. L. (In 2014, they managed .682 v. R, .690 v. L.)

It's interesting to see though.
From a pure entertainment perspective, I am really looking forward to watch Bautista bat-flip off Price.
 

Mike F

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From a pure entertainment perspective, I am really looking forward to watch Bautista bat-flip off Price.
For myself I'd rather he not ever have the necessary HR. Given that he no doubt will, I'm more interested in his next AB v Price.
 

soxhop411

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From today's press conference
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: Sox have ‘already fielded numerous phone calls’ from other teams about starting depth.”
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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From today's press conference
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: Sox have ‘already fielded numerous phone calls’ from other teams about starting depth.”
Now that DDski has a "complete" team, he can think of trying to make it even better. Maybe there's no realistic way that he can, but that doesn't mean he shouldn't listen.

It's certainly not surprising he'd be fielding calls about many and various pitchers not named Rick Porcello.
 

BeantownIdaho

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From today's press conference
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: Sox have ‘already fielded numerous phone calls’ from other teams about starting depth.”
I am curious as to if there has been some discussion of this depth that could be traded to Seattle for King Felix. He is owed a lot of money and Dipoto seems willing to deal and has had a good look at the farm. I'm not saying he comes cheap....but the stars could align on this one.
 

NDame616

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Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball (although had a slightly down year, relatively speaking) and makes about 8-10M/year less than he would on the open market and it essentially signed through 2020 ($1M team option??). The price for him would may not be QUITE X/Betts, but it would certainly be way more than "starting depth"
 

AB in DC

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I must have missed why so many people think Kelly would fit in well as a reliever. The last time the question came up, Kelly made it clear that he doesn't think he would stay healthy as a reliever.

The issue? Kelly’s closing career wasn’t without hiccups from a physical standpoint. “I don’t know if it was because I just started pitching, but closing bothered my arm a lot,” Kelly said, according to WEEI.com. “When I was in college, I was shut down every year for a few weeks for arm problems, and I don’t know if it was because I was just new to pitching or the amount of repetition I got outings-wise. So I don’t know what the correlation was. I really enjoyed it, but I ran into a few arm problems.

“I would be shut down for two-week or three-week increments. I didn’t have a full healthy year except for maybe my first year.”
Intuitively, it makes sense that a guy with a 97 mph fastball may need a little more rest between appearances. We've already got one reliever (Uehara) whose workload may be limited; do we really want to have two?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball (although had a slightly down year, relatively speaking) and makes about 8-10M/year less than he would on the open market and it essentially signed through 2020 ($1M team option??). The price for him would may not be QUITE X/Betts, but it would certainly be way more than "starting depth"
It's a conditional option similar to the one Lackey had, where if he has surgery on his right elbow and misses 130 days, they have a $1M option. These details can almost always be found on Cots, for future reference.
 

NDame616

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I read it quickly on B-R. Now re-reading it, it makes sense.

However, he is on a 4/108 contract right now. On the open market he gets $30M a year, so by today's standards he is very much underpaid and would not be easy to trade for because of that