CR
From SoSH
Created by Eric Van in an attempt to create a Runs Created-type formula more logical and more accurate than any of the alternatives (Linear Weights, EqA, RC itself, etc.). The form of the metric is extremely similar to David Smyth's BaseRuns; BaseRuns is even more logically constructed, but the less rigorous form of CR allows for better estimation of the coefficients. Contrary to the belief of some, Van invented CR before his employment by the Red Sox and has published the formula several times on SoSH, at Baseball Think factory, and (an earlier version) on Usenet.
CR = HR + [WROB] * [ .038 + (.514 * H + .403 * 2B + 1.413 * 3B + .534 * HR + .627 * SB + .093 * (BB - IBB + HBP) + .064 * (AB – H – SO + SH + SF) ) / OUTS]
Where WROB ("Waiting Runners on Base") = H – HR + BB + HB – CS – GDP + [ROE – OOB]
And OUTS = AB – H + SF + SH + CS + GDP – [ROE – OOB]
[ROE - OOB], Reached on Error less Outs on Base, can be counted by hand, or divined magically by R + LOB - (H + BB + HBP - CS - GDP)
There is no term for SH in the linear expession because there is no significant correlation of SH/Out to baserunner scoring. The metric can be made more accurate by including SF in the linear expression, but it is omitted for philosophical reasons, since SF is a measure of situational hitting.
The coefficients in the linear expression are not fixed for all time but rather reflect aspects of contemporary play, especially the agressiveness of baserunning. While CR with the above coefficients is dramatically better than any other metric for estimating team scoring in the 1990s, it was less accurate than EqA in 2006, suggesting that the coefficients need to be tweaked. Van hopes to derive and publish a new version of CR this year (possibly with a term for WP / PB / BK). While CR can be used on an individual batting line, Van's preferred method for hitters is to take the batting line of an average team (for that season and league) and substitute the rate stats of the player being evaluated, scaled to equal 1/9 of the total team PA. The resulting difference from average is then multiplied by 9 in order to make the result scale with stats which assume a lineup of 9 of the hitter in question. To evaluate the impact of a player on a specific team, the opposite is done: take the actual team totals and substitute an average hitting line (or a replacement-level hitting line) for the actual PA of the hitter in question. Note that in both cases the new team totals must be scaled to the same number of outs in order to deteremine the revised run total.
