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Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread


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#301 Infield Infidel


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:53 AM

By the way, Party of Five is better than Full House

 

I'll take Perfect Strangers over both of them

 

edit- for some reason I thought PS was in San Fran. no idea why.

 

So I'm changing my vote to Too Close for Comfort, which is a nice segue to Farrell's managing lately


Edited by Infield Infidel, 21 August 2013 - 12:57 AM.


#302 Sampo Gida

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:56 AM

The offense scoring only 2 runs and Victorino catching a foul ball that guaranteed that the tying run scores with a team that had been 0-10 with RISP were factors as well. 

 

JF's adherence to convention and not using his closer on the road in a tie game and instead relying on Morales and Villareal to get the team into extra innings makes me wonder if he did not really want to chance a long extra inning game and burn the pen.

 

I also thought it interesting Farrell did not have Papi PH for Napoli in the top of the 9th against a RHP'er.

 

I wonder if Workman is unavailable because he will make Dempsters next start, or will they just shorten the rotation with the off days?



#303 twibnotes


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:57 AM

If Farrell knew his only option was Villarreal (a flawed approach imo as i'd rather see uehara get four outs but whatever), shouldn't he at least have the foresight to yank morales before the bases are juiced?

#304 StuckOnYouk

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:58 AM

 

I'll take Perfect Strangers over both of them

 

edit- for some reason I thought PS was in San Fran. no idea why.

 

So I'm changing my vote to Too Close for Comfort

 

Damn, you're right. I forgot about Too Close for Comfort. The blonde daughter was smoking hot and Ted Knight was Ted Knight. Not to mention Jim J Bullock.

 

 Party of Five had Jennifer Love Hewitt. It deserves to be ahead of Full House. And no, this has nothing to do with Farrell.



#305 soxhop411


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 01:04 AM

Wait a second... If Koji pitched, he would be up to bat 4th right? I guess thats why he did not use him he would have had to PH for him right?



#306 barbed wire Bob


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 01:04 AM

If Workman wasn't available then the only pitchers available were Uehara, Britton and Villarreal. According to the Fangraphs win probability graph, the WE for the Giants was 64.9% after Morales hit Sanchez. At that point I think Farrell came to the conclusion that the game was pretty much lost and it was better to save Uehara and Britton for tomorrow and gamble on Villarreal.

http://www.fangraphs...h=0&season=2013

#307 Al Zarilla


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 01:17 AM

If Workman wasn't available then the only pitchers available were Uehara, Britton and Villarreal. According to the Fangraphs win probability graph, the WE for the Giants was 64.9% after Morales hit Sanchez. At that point I think Farrell came to the conclusion that the game was pretty much lost and it was better to save Uehara and Britton for tomorrow and gamble on Villarreal.

http://www.fangraphs...h=0&season=2013

But isn't it 64.9% that they'd win sometime, but not necessarily in the ninth, because there were two out (odds are one batter makes an out vs. gets a hit or a walk even if he's Ted Williams). Well, throw in errors, wild pitches, balks, etc, and Ted probably gets it over 50% to get the run in. But, Scutaro is up. Good, but no Williams. Maybe Farrell was fearing the long extra inning game, on the road, etc., etc.and did sort of punt.



#308 cannonball 1729

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 02:06 AM

Wait a second... If Koji pitched, he would be up to bat 4th right? I guess thats why he did not use him he would have had to PH for him right?

 

Unless he did a double-switch.  Napoli and Ross had both batted in the previous inning, so either one could have been swapped out for Papi or Salty.  I suppose it would have been weird to switch out the catcher with the bases loaded, but there's no reason Koji had to hit.



#309 adam42381

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 05:07 AM

I'm really glad I was in bed before this game started. I read the game recap and immediately came to this thread. I think it's time to consider that Farrell just isn't a great manager. Sure, he's good at getting guys motivated and the players like him, but his in-game strategies have cost the team multiple games this year. I want to like the guy, it just seems like his Toronto record may not have been an anomaly.

#310 TheoShmeo


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 05:35 AM

I'm really glad I was in bed before this game started. I read the game recap and immediately came to this thread. I think it's time to consider that Farrell just isn't a great manager. Sure, he's good at getting guys motivated and the players like him, but his in-game strategies have cost the team multiple games this year. I want to like the guy, it just seems like his Toronto record may not have been an anomaly.

This really implicates Schilling's mantra about managers in this era. For those who have not heard it, Schilling maintains that leadership trumps all and that Xs and Os pale in comparison, and can be handled by the Bench Coach.  He said that a zillion times in the wake of Bobby V's hiring and again when JF was hired.

 

I don't know if Curt is right.  To me, a manager has to have both, and without a good grasp on strategy, games like last night can happen.

 

But that begs another question: What was Torey Luvollo thinking last night?  Why isn't he doing a better job in these kind of circumstances?  Or is JF not really taking his counsel?



#311 j44thor

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 06:06 AM

It is almost as if they were either determined to punt this game from the beginning (No Ortiz/Salty) or they were so confident that Peavy could beat the awful slop throwing Vogelsong that it didn't matter what lineup they put forth.  When you add in the bizarre BP usage and Ortiz never getting an AB it is really frustrating.

 

Between now and Aug 31st is when this team needs to grind out wins.  Anytime they have such a favorable matchup, as tonight was, you need to give yourself the best possible chance to win.  

 

Really this game was lost by resting Ortiz and his 1.135 OPS vs RHP so that he would be fresh to face Zito with his .731 OPS vs. LHP.  Icing on top of the shit cake was resting Salty and his .855 OPS vs. RHP.



#312 Van Everyman


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 06:08 AM

What are people arguing that JF should've done instead? I hear countless knocks on his choices but the alternatives never seen that great or oblivious.

Wanting to close with Koji is defensible. What people are complaining about isn't Farrell's performance -- it's the bullpen's and Tazawa's in particular. If he can't be a bridge to the 9th, particularly on the road that's a problem.

#313 Van Everyman


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 06:10 AM

Really this game was lost by resting Ortiz and his 1.135 OPS vs RHP so that he would be fresh to face Zito with his .731 OPS vs. LHP. Icing on top of the shit cake was resting Salty and his .855 OPS vs. RHP.

Or Ortiz needed rest (people said he was wincing in the dugout last night) and Salty has caught approximately 700 games this season and he did as well. Matchups on paper are great and all but they don't translate 1:1 to reality.

#314 Harry Hooper


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 06:36 AM

Ross was suspect last night in the pitch-calling departmernt. The Tazawa vs. Belt matchup was a huge point in the game, and Belt was in fear of another spliitter dropping off the table. He was set up perfectly for some high gas. I kept waiting for that pitch and it was never called. Everything was in the lower half of the strike zone.



#315 joe dokes

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:00 AM

I'm really glad I was in bed before this game started. I read the game recap and immediately came to this thread. I think it's time to consider that Farrell just isn't a great manager. Sure, he's good at getting guys motivated and the players like him, but his in-game strategies have cost the team multiple games this year. I want to like the guy, it just seems like his Toronto record may not have been an anomaly.

 

Not singling you out, because you are not alone in the thought, but as long as there are opinions like the bolded one, talk radio will survive, to the detriment of humanity.

 

Have his in-game strategies helped the team win *any* games?  Maybe they've helped the Sox win more games than almost all the other teams' managers decisions have?  Or maybe he has 0 wins and a lot of losses, and the "team" has 74 wins and many fewer losses.

 

I was cursing Villareal, too, but if Workman was truly unavailable, and given the speed with which Morales shat the bed, Farrell's options were limited. He's already showed a willingness to use Uehara on the road, so it wasn't some stubborn stupidity, either.

 

As for resting Ortiz...he played 1st the night before and complained after the game about being sore from that and the flight that day.

made a questionable decision, etc.

 

They failed to kill the crap-throwing Vogelsong early;  Tazawa wasn't terribly sharp; Victorino made a questionable decision (to which I dont know the "right" answer -- my hunch is that in the 8th inning you get the out, but I haven't really thought it through); and Morales unraveled like a cheap suit.

 

If TB plays .800 the rest of the way, it wont matter if Miller Huggins is managing and John McGraw is the bench coach.



#316 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:04 AM

What are people arguing that JF should've done instead? I hear countless knocks on his choices but the alternatives never seen that great or oblivious.

m.


Why not bring in Villareal one batter earlier? Bringing him in with the bases loaded to face Scutaro was a recipe for disaster.

You're main point stands though; Ben needs to upgrade Morales as Villareal. If that means they have to DFA Bard to create room, so be it.

#317 Plympton91


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:16 AM

I am so glad I went to bed.

Seems like the only options he felt he had were Morales, Britton, and Villareal. I would have stuck with Morales, but that speaks to a need for more bullpen depth. The other options are Beatto, de la Rosa, and de la Torre, or DFA one of them and bring back Mortenson.

It's too bad Aceves lost his mind after they let Webster start over him, Ace would look very good relative to the other current choicces for reliever 7.

#318 OttoC


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:25 AM

In his MLB career Villarreal has faced 331 batters and walked 47 of them. However, 5 of them were intentional and should be subtracted out; thus, 42/326 = 12.88% of the batters he has faced have been walked unintentionally. If you look at his minor league career (and make similar adjustments), his walk rate drops to 9.18% of batters faced. But if you restrict it to Triple-A performance, you find nearly the same rate he has exhibited in the majors: (63-1)/(501-1) = 12.38%. The AL average for this season is 7.5% of batters faced being walked.

 

The question I have is not whether he should have been in the game but whether he should be on the roster.



#319 smastroyin


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:27 AM

Unfortunately for Farrell and the red Sox, Tazawa has too often been giving up the lead. You can't pitch Koji every night and don't think he should have been used there, where the best result is you need him again in the tenth. Frankly while I think Farrell has been bad ibb the second half, you can't manage a bullpen with one effective guy.

#320 RetractableRoof

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:31 AM

What are people arguing that JF should've done instead? I hear countless knocks on his choices but the alternatives never seen that great or oblivious.

Wanting to close with Koji is defensible. What people are complaining about isn't Farrell's performance -- it's the bullpen's and Tazawa's in particular. If he can't be a bridge to the 9th, particularly on the road that's a problem.

I wanted him to not burn a strike thrower (Workman) in a 7-0 game.  That is a game you try to get Villareal into to get the him into a groove or find out if he is going to crap the bed on you.  That gives Workman a day off and makes him available.  It's not hindsight if you are shaking your head during the last two outs of the 7-0 inning wondering why Workman was pitching and not someone who only gets (or might get) lower leverage appearances.

 

Edit:Typo


Edited by RetractableRoof, 21 August 2013 - 07:32 AM.


#321 rembrat


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:35 AM

More over-reactionary crap to another lost. 

 

The amount of selective memory on display in this thread is staggering. No mention of Farrell pulling Peavy, who did not like it by the way, in the 6th which proved to be the right call? No of course not. Blame him for shitty relief pitching. But kudos to the few posters who have noted that Farrell is working with one reliable guy in his bullpen whose role is pitching in the 9th, a guy that can't bridge to the 9th, a decent lefty and then a bunch of kids who sometimes suck. 

 

Now back to calling Farrell incompetent. 



#322 j44thor

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:43 AM

Or Ortiz needed rest (people said he was wincing in the dugout last night) and Salty has caught approximately 700 games this season and he did as well. Matchups on paper are great and all but they don't translate 1:1 to reality.


Rest them both today against a lefty.

If Ortiz cant play then that is defensible but all the more reason to have Salty in there.

#323 joe dokes

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 07:54 AM

If Ortiz cant play then that is defensible but all the more reason to have Salty in there.

 

I guess  just come at from the angle of "If the team's best hitter isn't in the game, then the manager probably has a pretty good reason that might be related to Ortiz's complaints after the game the night before," rather than, "too bad our retahded manager wants Tampa Bay to make the playoffs."

Rest them both today against a lefty.

 

 

How late in the day was Zito subbed in for Gaudin?



#324 barbed wire Bob


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:09 AM

But isn't it 64.9% that they'd win sometime, but not necessarily in the ninth, because there were two out (odds are one batter makes an out vs. gets a hit or a walk even if he's Ted Williams). Well, throw in errors, wild pitches, balks, etc, and Ted probably gets it over 50% to get the run in. But, Scutaro is up. Good, but no Williams. Maybe Farrell was fearing the long extra inning game, on the road, etc., etc.and did sort of punt.


One big problem with being a fan is that we would like Farrell to manage each game like the seventh game of World Series. But In order to even get into the playoffs Farrell must manage for the long haul which means giving people days off, trying to win series' instead of games and punting on games where the WE is is only 35%.

#325 radsoxfan


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:10 AM

If Workman wasn't available then the only pitchers available were Uehara, Britton and Villarreal. According to the Fangraphs win probability graph, the WE for the Giants was 64.9% after Morales hit Sanchez. At that point I think Farrell came to the conclusion that the game was pretty much lost and it was better to save Uehara and Britton for tomorrow and gamble on Villarreal.

http://www.fangraphs...h=0&season=2013

 

There is absolutely no way you punt a game you have a 35% chance of winning. It's unclear to me how that game is "pretty much lost", particularly against this crappy Giants team. If that was Farrell's thinking even in any tiny way, I'm even more worried about him.



#326 radsoxfan


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:12 AM

One big problem with being a fan is that we would like Farrell to manage each game like the seventh game of World Series. But In order to even get into the playoffs Farrell must manage for the long haul which means giving people days off, trying to win series' instead of games and punting on games where the WE is is only 35%.

 

If you stopped trying to win every game that your win percentage dipped to 35% at some time during the game, you would be punting a huge portion of the schedule.  The win percentage would have to be less than 10% (probably even smaller) to even think about it.

 

That doesn't mean you make every single move like its Game 7 of the World Series.  Other factors apply of course.  But within the framework of generally not overusing your players, you absolutely try to win the game.  It's not like Koji was unavailable.... it's that Farrell apparently thought there was a chance later in the game he would be more valuable. And I'm not sure I see the logic in that.


Edited by radsoxfan, 21 August 2013 - 08:24 AM.


#327 smastroyin


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:20 AM

I'm going to guess the Salty decision had to do more with Peavy being less comfortable with Salty than the other pitchers (as in, from what Farrell has said, the other pitchers really prefer to throw to Salty.  Peavy, being new, might not have that preference).  However, I do think that sitting both Ortiz and Salty the same game wasn't the best way to handle this game.

 

For the record, some things should hopefully normalize, but one of the reasons we are talking more about Farrell is that they have lost their last 5 one run games.  They have also lost 15 straight games where they have scored less than 4 runs.  Some of that is bad luck - they have been winning blowouts, so their good pitching is just dovetailing with their good hitting in most cases (Sunday's "look at me I'm Ryan Dempster and I am more concerned with hitting ARod than winning the game" notwithstanding).  But it really really really sucks.  They could use a healthy Bailey.  Or Miller.  Or even Hanrahan.



#328 Toe Nash

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:21 AM

The offense scoring only 2 runs and Victorino catching a foul ball that guaranteed that the tying run scores with a team that had been 0-10 with RISP were factors as well. 

 

JF's adherence to convention and not using his closer on the road in a tie game and instead relying on Morales and Villareal to get the team into extra innings makes me wonder if he did not really want to chance a long extra inning game and burn the pen.

 

1. I hate posts like this. You can blame the offense in a lot of close games they lose. This is a thread about the managing decisions that can affect the outcome of the game. It's possible to think the offense sucked last night and still think the game was winnable with better managing. If the offense on balance was a problem there would be a thread about that, and there kind of is in various threads.

2. So you're suggesting he lost on purpose so that they wouldn't have to go into extra innings? I can see a small argument for this in that once you get to the 11th or 12th so it often seems like you're hurting the team's chances a lot in future games by continuing to burn your bullpen pitchers. But in the 9th? With an off day Thursday and another Monday? Use the pen.

 

I get Farrell's comments (and others over time) at the Saber Seminar about believing in defined roles for the pen because guys like to prepare mentally and physically for a few innings beforehand. That makes perfect sense. We would always see Papelbon doing his weirdo stretches in the 6th or so if the game was remotely close. Certainly starters get the advantage of mentally preparing for their starts so why not extend that to the pen as much as possible?

 

But if you believe that then Koji should have been preparing to come into the 9th and presumably ready at any point. Did he just shut everything off once the score became tied? Did he then prepare to come in for a future yet-unknown inning when the Sox would have the lead? How did he prepare for that? The defined roles thing kind of breaks down at that point and you really have to use your best pitcher there in what is very likely to be the highest-leverage situation in the game.


Edited by Toe Nash, 21 August 2013 - 08:22 AM.


#329 There is no Rev


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:34 AM

I'm going to guess the Salty decision had to do more with Peavy being less comfortable with Salty than the other pitchers (as in, from what Farrell has said, the other pitchers really prefer to throw to Salty.  Peavy, being new, might not have that preference).  However, I do think that sitting both Ortiz and Salty the same game wasn't the best way to handle this game.

 

For the record, some things should hopefully normalize, but one of the reasons we are talking more about Farrell is that they have lost their last 5 one run games.  They have also lost 15 straight games where they have scored less than 4 runs.

 

Could just be a matter of saying all the right things, but Peavy was pretty complimentary about Salty after the first start--from ProJo's Britton:

 

"That's something that's always a question mark, because Salty doesn't know me, I don't know him," Peavy said. "Since the day I got here, our lockers aren't too far. He's been asking me questions on what I like to do. We had a good half-hour meeting.

 

"I can't say enough about his willingness. Salty has got some time here, some time in the big leagues. For him to be so humble in his approach, to not say, 'This is how we do things here'; it was him saying, 'Hey, man, what do you need to win tonight? What do you need me to do?'

 

"I think it epitomizes the attitude that the rest of the guys have in that clubhouse and what makes this group special."


Edited by Reverend, 21 August 2013 - 08:34 AM.


#330 smastroyin


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

Yeah, I tried to explain my reasoning, but it's not that Peavy isn't comfortable with Salty, more that as the new guy, he might not have the reliance on Salty that some of the others seem to have.  So it's not that because Peavy was pitching, he didn't want Salty.  It's that, because the other 4 guys want Salty, Farrell took the opportunity to give him a rest day.

 

That said, I kind of think that whole business is overblown and that with the heavy platoon splits you are going to get more value out of playing those rather than picking rotation spots for Salty off-days.  



#331 lexrageorge

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 08:59 AM

I can't necessarily fault Farrell for holding Uehara back.  At some point he does need to rely on the other members of the bullpen to contribute; not many folks here would want to see Uehara's ERA zoom to 10.62 in September and October.  It's awfully difficult to manage around a pen that gives up triples or walks when coming in with the bases loaded.  

 

And raising the point about the Sox team performance is hardly irrelevant, regardless of the title of the thread.  The players' do own responsibility for the loss as well; the lineup was facing a classic replacement level pitcher in Ryan Friggin' Vogelsong; drawing 1 walk in 7 innings against a guy who's hardly known for his impeccable control of the strike zone is not exactly making it easy on the manager or the bullpen.  And Morales wasn't exactly facing the heart of SF's lineup either; again he had a job to do there, and simply failed to carry it out.  Relying on guys that are on the roster to contribute in difficult situations is hardly "punting" the game, nor is it managing to lose.  

 

I'm also curious if Farrell did bring in Uehara in the 9th, but the Sox lost it in the 11th after bringing in Villarreal, what would be the reaction be in this thread?  Would folks be upset that Farrell "burned" his closer for 2 games?  I have a suspicion based on past threads going back to the Francona days, but I'll leave that aside for now.  

 

If the Sox can only rely on one reliever the rest of the way, no manager is going to save their season.  



#332 There is no Rev


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 09:05 AM


Yeah, I tried to explain my reasoning, but it's not that Peavy isn't comfortable with Salty, more that as the new guy, he might not have the reliance on Salty that some of the others seem to have.  So it's not that because Peavy was pitching, he didn't want Salty.  It's that, because the other 4 guys want Salty, Farrell took the opportunity to give him a rest day.

 

That said, I kind of think that whole business is overblown and that with the heavy platoon splits you are going to get more value out of playing those rather than picking rotation spots for Salty off-days.  

 

Ah, so, like, maybe if you have to choose a day to rest Salty, choose the day where Salty's added value with the pitcher is least? I can see that.

 

Two other broad thoughts on the decision making which come from Farrell's remarks at Saber Seminar:

  1. The information they use for decision making is way beyond just left-right splits, and it sounds like it's going to get even more sophisticated down the road as teams get better at incorporating PitchF/X, HitF/X and FieldF/X data. As in, it's not just consideration of a batter's OPS versus lefties but how the ball tends to come off his bat against certain types of lefties and what that means in the park they're playing in.
  2. Farrell did say some interesting stuff about looking at players for the long haul that could at times not maximize winning each and every game. Specifically, he said they brought up the relievers from the minors when they did not necessarily because they offered the best chance to win but because they needed a chance to see what they had in them before the trade deadline to make personnel decisions; sometimes the needs of scouting their own guys trumping the need to win specific games was pretty intriguing.

Not sure if either of things were in play last night, but some of the posts above reminded me of those things.


Edited by Reverend, 21 August 2013 - 09:06 AM.


#333 judyb

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 09:08 AM

I guess  just come at from the angle of "If the team's best hitter isn't in the game, then the manager probably has a pretty good reason that might be related to Ortiz's complaints after the game the night before," rather than, "too bad our retahded manager wants Tampa Bay to make the playoffs."
 
How late in the day was Zito subbed in for Gaudin?

I have to believe they had Salty and Drew's days off planned ahead of time not knowing a LHP would start a game in this series, and maybe not expecting that Ortiz wouldn't be able to handle back to back games in the field.

#334 Plympton91


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 09:21 AM

I have to give them a pass on the off-days for Ortiz and Salty given the complete bullshit schedule they've been playing for the past 3 weeks.  A 10 game road trip, followed by 3 at home, culminating in a Sunday night game before a cross country flight with no off-day makes Gonzalez's complaints last year resonate totally.  It's total bullshit. 

 

I don't get the off-day for Drew.  That was totally driven by the emotional and unnecessary decision to call up Bogaerts even though Drew and Middlebrooks were among the hottest hitters not just on the team but in the league during August (and don't tell me about Drew's stats over the past 8 days when he was hitting opposite field bullets to the warning track that got caught by Davis, he's as locked in as he ever has been right now).



#335 Al Zarilla


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:22 AM

One big problem with being a fan is that we would like Farrell to manage each game like the seventh game of World Series. But In order to even get into the playoffs Farrell must manage for the long haul which means giving people days off, trying to win series' instead of games and punting on games where the WE is is only 35%.

Again, I believe it was 35% for the game, including extra innings. The odds of getting out of a two out bases loaded situation (you only have to get one hitter to make an out) is better than 35%. Or, maybe Fangraphs goes so far as to factor in that it's a good, patient hitter like Scutaro who doesn't care if he has two strikes on him or no strikes, hitting against a guy who can't hit the side of a barn. But, I doubt Fangraphs does that. On using Koji, the mantra for most MLB managers is you don't bring in your closer on the road unless you have a lead. As Smas points out, the best case is Koji has to pitch the tenth inning, and that might rule him out for Wednesday (although Thursday is an off day). 

 

Move on, methinks we or at least I need to do about the manager. Maybe he's learning. Leaving Dempster in far too long, and condoning hitting A-Rod which looks like it might have awakened that whole GD team, were far worse than last night. Why didn't he learn more in Toronto about ingame managing, or even in Boston under Tito, Lord knows.



#336 rembrat


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:29 AM

Again, I believe it was 35% for the game, including extra innings. The odds of getting out of a two out bases loaded situation (you only have to get one hitter to make an out) is better than 35%. Or, maybe Fangraphs goes so far as to factor in that it's a good, patient hitter like Scutaro who doesn't care if he has two strikes on him or no strikes, hitting against a guy who can't hit the side of a barn. But, I doubt Fangraphs does that. On using Koji, the mantra for most MLB managers is you don't bring in your closer on the road unless you have a lead. As Smas points out, the best case is Koji has to pitch the tenth inning, and that might rule him out for Wednesday (although Thursday is an off day). 

 

Move on, methinks we or at least I need to do about the manager. Maybe he's learning. Leaving Dempster in far too long, and condoning hitting A-Rod which looks like it might have awakened that whole GD team, were far worse than last night. Why didn't he learn more in Toronto about ingame managing, or even in Boston under Tito, Lord knows.

 

Not only is this preposterous but who cares? The Yankees play the Orioles and the Rays 6 more times each. The Yankees taking wins away from those teams is a good thing. 



#337 Doctor G

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:41 AM

I don't get why he didn't start Drew as soon as he found out Zito was  taking Gaudin's  spot. Bogaerts could have waited an extra day.



#338 rembrat


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:47 AM

I don't get why he didn't start Drew as soon as he found out Zito was  taking Gaudin's  spot. Bogaerts could have waited an extra day.

 

That happened in the afternoon, maybe 3 or 4 hours before the game was to start. Were this a simulation I suppose he could have swapped Drew in but maybe he didn't want to dick around with 2 ballplayers. Drew could have approached that day as a day off, which it was, and not been mentally or physically prepared to go and Xander was probably geeked about starting etc etc. The whole dealing with actual human beings gets in the way sometimes, doesn't it?



#339 OttoC


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:49 AM

...The odds of getting out of a two out bases loaded situation (you only have to get one hitter to make an out) is better than 35%....

 

I don't have data based on current scoring rates but according to Tom Tango's Sabermetrics 101, based on 1999-2002 data, no runs were scored in bases loaded, 2 out situations 67.5% of the time. Note: All partial innings are excluded. All home innings in the 9th or later are excluded.



#340 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 10:55 AM

Not only is this preposterous but who cares? The Yankees play the Orioles and the Rays 6 more times each. The Yankees taking wins away from those teams is a good thing. 

 

 

I suspect that the MFY will pass the Orioles by the weekend. Them beating the Rays is theoretically a good thing, but it kind of requires the Red Sox winning too.



#341 barbed wire Bob


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 11:02 AM

Again, I believe it was 35% for the game, including extra innings. The odds of getting out of a two out bases loaded situation (you only have to get one hitter to make an out) is better than 35%. Or, maybe Fangraphs goes so far as to factor in that it's a good, patient hitter like Scutaro who doesn't care if he has two strikes on him or no strikes, hitting against a guy who can't hit the side of a barn. But, I doubt Fangraphs does that. On using Koji, the mantra for most MLB managers is you don't bring in your closer on the road unless you have a lead. As Smas points out, the best case is Koji has to pitch the tenth inning, and that might rule him out for Wednesday (although Thursday is an off day). 

 

Move on, methinks we or at least I need to do about the manager. Maybe he's learning. Leaving Dempster in far too long, and condoning hitting A-Rod which looks like it might have awakened that whole GD team, were far worse than last night. Why didn't he learn more in Toronto about ingame managing, or even in Boston under Tito, Lord knows.

I'm not a stat guy but I agree with you and assume the 35% was for the game.  Regarding, the bolded part, I think that was a big consideration in Farrell's decision making.  I mean, do you try to win a game in extra innings and deplete the bullpen or do you try to save the bullpen and win the series the following day?  I don't know what is the best course action (if I did then I would be manager and not a guy sitting in a storage closet converted into an office) so I tend to give Farrell the benefit of the doubt.  



#342 j44thor

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 11:19 AM

 

That happened in the afternoon, maybe 3 or 4 hours before the game was to start. Were this a simulation I suppose he could have swapped Drew in but maybe he didn't want to dick around with 2 ballplayers. Drew could have approached that day as a day off, which it was, and not been mentally or physically prepared to go and Xander was probably geeked about starting etc etc. The whole dealing with actual human beings gets in the way sometimes, doesn't it?

 

They already have Thursday off and Monday is also an off-day.  I realize the schedule has been tough but the time to have scheduled off-days is in Sept once you have reinforcements, not late August when there are 10 games before rosters expand. 



#343 joe dokes

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 11:25 AM

 

They already have Thursday off and Monday is also an off-day.  I realize the schedule has been tough but the time to have scheduled off-days is in Sept once you have reinforcements, not late August when there are 10 games before rosters expand. 

 

According to whom?



#344 Al Zarilla


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 11:49 AM

 

Not only is this preposterous but who cares? The Yankees play the Orioles and the Rays 6 more times each. The Yankees taking wins away from those teams is a good thing. 

Didn't need them coming back to beat the Red Sox on Sunday (which they may have anyway, I know) and then sweep the BJs yesterday though. It's back to a four team race in the East, and the Yankees have a strong bullpen, which the Red Sox don't. 



#345 Plympton91


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 11:55 AM

Didn't need them coming back to beat the Red Sox on Sunday (which they may have anyway, I know) and then sweep the BJs yesterday though. It's back to a four team race in the East, and the Yankees have a strong bullpen, which the Red Sox don't. 

 

I agree; Jeter is almost back too, isn't he?  The Yankees are by no means out of this, especially if roid-boy gets to keep playing and continues to play as if he's 19 again.



#346 There is no Rev


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:06 PM

 

They already have Thursday off and Monday is also an off-day.  I realize the schedule has been tough but the time to have scheduled off-days is in Sept once you have reinforcements, not late August when there are 10 games before rosters expand. 

 

rembrat was referring to someone asking why the players weren't swapped after the pitching changes were announced. Farrell was very clear the other day that he thinks it's very important for players to have stable expectations, so I think rembrat is likely correct.



#347 j44thor

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:17 PM

 

rembrat was referring to someone asking why the players weren't swapped after the pitching changes were announced. Farrell was very clear the other day that he thinks it's very important for players to have stable expectations, so I think rembrat is likely correct.

 

Yes my point is don't promise off days 2 days before a scheduled off-day and 10 days before rosters expand.

Would it have killed them to treat yesterday like a normal game?  If anything give rest today since it is a day game after a night game and they would then get two days off which is probably going to help recover a lot more than taking a night game off and playing the following day game.

 

Obviously I'm not suggesting they play anyone that is hurt but if Ortiz can play today then there is no reason he couldn't have played yesterday.  They know they have Thursday off so they already have a stable off-day this week.  Sure it is a travel day but they are going from SF to LA.



#348 joe dokes

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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:27 PM

 

.

 

Obviously I'm not suggesting they play anyone that is hurt but if Ortiz can play today then there is no reason he couldn't have played yesterday.

 

True, because no one, ever, anywhere misses only one day of work, and is able to return after mising only that one day.



#349 ifmanis5


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:39 PM

I'm really glad I was in bed before this game started. I read the game recap and immediately came to this thread. I think it's time to consider that Farrell just isn't a great manager. Sure, he's good at getting guys motivated and the players like him, but his in-game strategies have cost the team multiple games this year. I want to like the guy, it just seems like his Toronto record may not have been an anomaly.

The same was said about Tito, but at least we had Playoff Tito.

Hopefully JF will be able to show off his 2nd gear this fall.



#350 RSN Diaspora


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Posted 21 August 2013 - 01:07 PM

The offense scoring only 2 runs and Victorino catching a foul ball that guaranteed that the tying run scores with a team that had been 0-10 with RISP were factors as well.

 

I saw people griping about this last night as well, and it's one thing if you've got Marco Scutaro or Andres Torres at bat, and something altogether different if you've got Buster Posey at bat. I don't think you give Buster Posey the opportunity to send you into the ninth down a run or more when you can get him right there for a tie game.






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