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Lackey-Back Again


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#101 Dalton Jones

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Posted 07 April 2013 - 09:02 PM

All we have are their statements to go on. And these are sufficiently vague to allow for any eventuality. I don't believe the
Sox medical staff has released a statement, so they are not on record. We know nothing.

#102 SoxScout


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Posted 07 April 2013 - 10:00 PM

@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: #RedSox, #Twins, #Astros all expressing trade interest in Harang, whom #Rockies acquired and designated for assignment yesterday.



#103 soxhop411


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 08:31 AM

Lucchino on @DandCShow re Lackey: 'my understanding of the MRI is that he had a mid-biceps strain, no structural damage'



#104 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 08:51 AM

Assuming it's a biceps strain, how many starts does he probably miss with that?



#105 pdaj

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:22 AM

Assuming it's a biceps strain, how many starts does he probably miss with that?

 

 

Per Rotoworld:

 

Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino said Monday that an MRI on John Lackey's right arm showed no structural damge.
That's great news. Lackey has been diagnosed with a mid-biceps strain and will likely have to be placed on the 15-day disabled list, but he won't be out for more than a month. The veteran right-hander suffered the injury Saturday in his first start of the regular season. Apr 8 - 9:40 AM

 



#106 SouthernBoSox


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:46 AM

That's pretty amazing actually.  If he only misses a month it means I initially overestimated his missed time by infinity.  Career ending instantly popped in my head.  

 

I guess the easy call is to have Aceves make a few starts.  I really really would like to see the Allen Webster era start though.  He was pretty damn good in spring training, and has the stuff to get anyone out. 



#107 86spike


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:57 AM

Well they won't be able to use off-days to skip the fifth starter spot, so they will need someone.

 

After tomorrow's day off, they have 19 straight games, one day off and then another 13 straight games.  Maybe there's a rain-out here or there, but a fifth starter is definitely required.

 

I guess Aceves might be getting up to 6 starts.



#108 bosockboy


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:06 AM

Their interest in Harang makes sense...

#109 Red(s)HawksFan

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:12 AM

They can put off the fifth starter's spot until Sunday by utilizing tomorrow's off-day to move up Lester and Buchholz, so that's probably the time frame they are working with to determine whether Lackey goes to the DL (retroactive to yesterday) or makes his next start.

 

Per @brianmacp

Lackey joined the other pitchers for pregame stretching in the outfield. He did only the lower-body exercises and no throwing.

 

That strikes me as an activity that a pitcher immediately headed to the DL wouldn't bother with, but a pitcher who might be back sooner rather than later would.



#110 soxhop411


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:17 AM

 

Lackey has inflammation in rt biceps . May miss a start. No tear

 

 

Inflammation, no tear in Lackey biceps. Too soon to say if going in DL


Edited by soxhop411, 08 April 2013 - 10:18 AM.


#111 Saints Rest

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:37 AM

Seems if they need to put him on the 15-day, they should do it by Wednesday.  Use that spot to add Drew in the short-term.  Then if they simply skip the 5th starter's role this week due to the off-day, they can wait until the 13th or so (assuming they need to replace Aceves in the pen) or the 16th (if they leave Aceves in the pen and add a starter) before adding another pitcher.  If they go that route, and if Lackey is healthy when his turn would come around again,  they will only need to replace one start, which to me would suggest leaving Aceves in the pen and using that start to see what Webster might have.  The added benefit of doing that means that they could keep Iggy with the big club for a few extra days while they see if Drew is 100%.



#112 pdaj

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:39 AM

Is this type of injury common for pitchers recovering from TJ? Does it in anyway suggest he might not have been ready for a starter's workload? 

 

Edit: If the answer to the second question is yes, Lackey will likely need more than 15 days to return to the mound.


Edited by pdaj, 08 April 2013 - 10:41 AM.


#113 SoxScout


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:42 AM

An MRI in Boston on Sunday revealed inflammation in the biceps but nothing more serious. Said manager John Farrell: “There has not been any detection of a tear.”

 

Farrell said it’s “unlikely” Lackey makes his next scheduled start, but: “We’re not at the point of saying he’s a DL, either.”

 

Alfredo Aceves a candidate to make a spot start, likely Sunday at Fenway vs. the Rays.

http://fullcount.wee...ry-not-serious/



#114 Al Zarilla


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 11:17 AM

When he gets back, I'll be watching him like he's a horse competing after a broken leg, if that has ever happened. I didn't see him pitch Saturday, but from reading the game thread, he was really good. Does he come out throwing caution to the winds again, or does he cautiously back off? 



#115 lexrageorge

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 12:05 PM

When he gets back, I'll be watching him like he's a horse competing after a broken leg, if that has ever happened. I didn't see him pitch Saturday, but from reading the game thread, he was really good. Does he come out throwing caution to the winds again, or does he cautiously back off


The team needs him to do the former.  If there's any concern about whether he can pitch the way he needs to pitch, then he will go on the 15-day DL, and will do a start or 2 in AAA as part of a rehab assignment.  It's one thing to limit a pitcher's pitch count; but it's almost impossible to limit a pitcher's effort when he's on the mound pitching in a real game. Nor is it wise to do so. 



#116 mabrowndog


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 07:33 PM

If they decide to place Lackey on the DL retroactively, Aceves could get two starts (Friday vs TBR, next Weds @ CLE). Lackey could then be activated in time to make his regularly slotted start on Monday 4/22 vs OAK at Fenway.

 

Or, as noted above, they could move Lester & Buchholz up a day (with both getting 4 days rest) and have Aceves start Sunday vs TBR. Alfredo would also start Friday 4/19 @ KCR. Lackey's earliest return would then be Weds 4/24 vs OAK at home.


Edited by mabrowndog, 08 April 2013 - 08:03 PM.


#117 Rovin Romine

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:31 PM

Color me unexcited over an Aceves start - I'm not sure if there's another option though.  While our AAA arms may help later in the year, right now our SP depth seems very thin. 



#118 knucklecup


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:51 PM

Color me unexcited over an Aceves start - I'm not sure if there's another option though.  While our AAA arms may help later in the year, right now our SP depth seems very thin. 

 

He pitched well in three of his four starts in 2011.  He's serviceable for two starts, no?



#119 reggiecleveland


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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:15 PM

Color me unexcited over an Aceves start - I'm not sure if there's another option though.  While our AAA arms may help later in the year, right now our SP depth seems very thin. 
 
He pitched well in three of his four starts in 2011.  He's serviceable for two starts, no?


In 2011 he was, unlike last year and this year, different in that in 2011 he was good

#120 SoxScout


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Posted 10 April 2013 - 12:52 PM

Lackey placed on DL. Alex Wilson called up.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/322044213892100097
link to tweet

 

Apparently he had tightness when trying to throw today: http://fullcount.wee...ng-to-dl-stint/


Edited by SoxScout, 10 April 2013 - 02:11 PM.


#121 SouthernBoSox


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Posted 10 April 2013 - 12:56 PM

No reason not to be overly cautious with someone just coming off major surgery, especially with a decent option already on the roster.

#122 dynomite

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 01:51 PM

No reason not to be overly cautious with someone just coming off major surgery, especially with a decent option already on the roster.

 

Not to mention that if Aceves has a couple of good starts it could increase his trade value.



#123 pokey_reese

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 02:01 PM

That Morales injury hurts a lot more now.  I would much prefer to see him taking these starts, after the success that he had last year.



#124 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 07:01 AM

From the Minor League thread:

 

John Lackey went 3 2/3 innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks; striking out 5 for Portland

 


What was not said was that it took him 67 pitches (46 strikes) to get through those 3 2/3 innings.  Not what I hoped for in his first rehab start in AA, but it could have been a heckuva lot worse.

 

Hoping they have him pitch for Pawtucket this upcoming weekend (home vs. Columbus) and he can get through 6 innings at under 100 pitches, then get him back up here to contribute.


Edited by Lose Remerswaal, 23 April 2013 - 07:02 AM.


#125 Red(s)HawksFan

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 07:10 AM

Farrell indicated on Sunday that if Lackey came through last night okay, he'd probably be starting at Fenway this weekend.  46 of 67 for strikes, five Ks, 3 hits on groundballs through the infield, just one ball put in the air, those are all encouraging signs.  To me, the only question is how he feels today and tomorrow.  Lackey said after the game last night that he didn't feel 100% out there.  From Alex Speier...

 

“It’s not 100 percent. There’s still a little bit of something there. But I think five more days of treatment, that should be fine,” Lackey told reporters in Portland.

 

Even with that issue, I'm not convinced he needs another rehab start.  A start this weekend against the Astros might be pretty much the same thing as a start for Pawtucket.



#126 someoneanywhere

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 07:16 AM

Actually that sounds like a pretty good night to me, Lose. Hits and walks in the minor leagues can be widely dependent on umpires and defense, to say nothing of positioning and scouting. Lackey got the ball and threw the ball, with no idea who he was facing, and a big leaguer's understanding of the strike zone, and was backed up by players who might not have been able to make big-league plays: either because they can't or aren't ready, or because they're out of position.

I'm not saying all of this is true; I'm saying all of this a reasonable read on the hazards of throwing in the minors, and we need to factor them in. The biggest number is the 5 punchouts. Almost half of his recorded outs came via the K -- I hope the swinging kind -- which to me, combined with the 2/3 strikes ratio, suggests he was throwing pretty good for being hurt.

#127 Frank Castillo

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 07:45 AM

Actually that sounds like a pretty good night to me, Lose. Hits and walks in the minor leagues can be widely dependent on umpires and defense, to say nothing of positioning and scouting. Lackey got the ball and threw the ball, with no idea who he was facing, and a big leaguer's understanding of the strike zone, and was backed up by players who might not have been able to make big-league plays: either because they can't or aren't ready, or because they're out of position.

I'm not saying all of this is true; I'm saying all of this a reasonable read on the hazards of throwing in the minors, and we need to factor them in. The biggest number is the 5 punchouts. Almost half of his recorded outs came via the K -- I hope the swinging kind -- which to me, combined with the 2/3 strikes ratio, suggests he was throwing pretty good for being hurt.

 

All 5 strikeouts were looking, per MiLB Gameday.  And of all the strikes that comprised those strikeouts, only one was swinging.  The rest were called strikes or fouled.



#128 mabrowndog


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 08:17 AM

11 of his strikes were foul balls, including 3 in an 8-pitch walk. That's one reason for the seemingly high pitch count.

 

First-pitch strikes to 10 of 15 batters, and he only had 3-ball counts on four hitters including the two walks. No red flags here whatsoever.

 

Pain-free and consistent throwing of strikes using all his pitches was the goal of this outing, not dominance of AA hitters.



#129 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 10:37 AM

Forgot it was Houston AAAstros coming in this weekend.  Bring the Lackey on!



#130 LogansDad


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 01:42 PM

I think you added an A....



#131 mabrowndog


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 03:27 PM

Maureen Mullen @MaureenaMullen
Lackey rehab outing last night, bullpen Thursday. Will make next start Sun. Should/could be vs. #Astros at Fenway.


#132 Dionysus


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Posted 23 April 2013 - 03:56 PM

I never thought I'd be so excited to have Lackey back on the team. It's a strange world we are living in.

#133 smastroyin


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Posted 28 April 2013 - 07:20 PM

I had to break my string of laziness and actually get on my bike this afternoon.  Any reports on how he looked?  I was surprised, given the opponent, at the low strikeout total, but it seems like a fine enough start otherwise.  If Lackey can even deliver what he did in 2010 for this team it will be a huge boost to the back end of the rotation, and potentially big relief on the arms of Tazawa, Uehara, and Bailey.



#134 Sprowl


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Posted 28 April 2013 - 07:44 PM

Lackey threw lots of strikes down the middle, far too many to give a good team, but the Astros did the rest for him. His velocity was pretty good, especially when compared to Doubront's 90. I'd say he pitched worse than his results, but better than a born-again TJ casualty. He was very careful, and largely successful, in keeping the fastball away from batters' pull power zones. If there are any warning signs, I'd put them in the unpredictable action of his slider and curve, which have too much variability in horizontal movement for my comfort.

 

location.php-pitchSel=407793&game=gid_20



#135 Rasputin


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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:19 PM

I had to break my string of laziness and actually get on my bike this afternoon.  Any reports on how he looked?  I was surprised, given the opponent, at the low strikeout total, but it seems like a fine enough start otherwise.  If Lackey can even deliver what he did in 2010 for this team it will be a huge boost to the back end of the rotation, and potentially big relief on the arms of Tazawa, Uehara, and Bailey.

 

Considering it was a glorified rehab appearance, it was very encouraging. We need to see more, and against a better team, but it was encouraging.



#136 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:23 PM

Lackey threw lots of strikes down the middle, far too many to give a good team, but the Astros did the rest for him. His velocity was pretty good, especially when compared to Doubront's 90. I'd say he pitched worse than his results, but better than a born-again TJ casualty. He was very careful, and largely successful, in keeping the fastball away from batters' pull power zones. If there are any warning signs, I'd put them in the unpredictable action of his slider and curve, which have too much variability in horizontal movement for my comfort.

 

I agree that a team better than the Astros might have knocked Lackey around a bit today. 

 

There isn't much data for 2013, and it could be gun variance, but it looks like Lackey's throwing as hard he ever has. The talk about Lackey not getting any whiffs in the minors rehab start might be something to watch, though. He's at 10% on the fastball (down from 15% career), and doesn't have a single whiff on 24 sinkers thus far. His curve has probably been his best pitch with 10+ swings and misses. 



#137 IHateDaveKerpen

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:32 PM

Remember: The Astros aren't as abysmal as we all think they are when they're at bat.  They're right in the middle of the pack when it comes to AVG. (13th), OPS. (15th) and HR (14th).  That said, their pitching is absolutely fucking abysmal.

 

I was encouraged by Lackey's outing, SSS and all.  I'm interested to see what happens with him going forward.  MDLTG's comments about his pitch selection are interesting.  Zero swinging strikes on his sinker definitely appears problematic.



#138 Sprowl


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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:41 PM

I was encouraged by Lackey's outing, SSS and all.  I'm interested to see what happens with him going forward.  MDLTG's comments about his pitch selection are interesting.  Zero swinging strikes on his sinker definitely appears problematic.

 

I wouldn't worry about a low whiff rate on the sinker -- Lackey doesn't throw it often, and it has never been a swing-and-miss pitch. When he gets whiffs, it's usually on the slider from RHB. The pitch IDs from Fenway have been off all season long because of horizontal movement error, so I wouldn't trust the sinker/fastball/cutter numbers on Lackey or Bard (or pretty much anybody else).



#139 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:46 PM

I wouldn't worry about a low whiff rate on the sinker -- Lackey doesn't throw it often, and it has never been a swing-and-miss pitch. When he gets whiffs, it's usually on the slider from RHB. The pitch IDs from Fenway have been off all season long because of horizontal movement error, so I wouldn't trust the sinker/fastball/cutter numbers on Lackey or Bard (or pretty much anybody else).

 

Agreed on the slider, which is troubling in the same way. He's got a lifetime whiff percentage of 30.99% and he's sitting at 19.23% right now for 2013. Obviously it's early and I'm not reading much into it, but I do think it's something to watch. 



#140 koufax32


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Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:59 PM

That will be easily compensated for if his curve is as nasty as it appeared in TOR. I will be cautiously raising one eyebrow for his next few starts wondering what we have here.

#141 IHateDaveKerpen

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 11:00 PM

I wouldn't worry about a low whiff rate on the sinker -- Lackey doesn't throw it often, and it has never been a swing-and-miss pitch. When he gets whiffs, it's usually on the slider from RHB. The pitch IDs from Fenway have been off all season long because of horizontal movement error, so I wouldn't trust the sinker/fastball/cutter numbers on Lackey or Bard (or pretty much anybody else).

 

Thanks for that.  You weren't kidding about his sinker not being a swing-and-miss pitch.  Wow.

 

Anybody have any idea as to how Lackey's weight loss - he looks stick thin compared to 2011 - is affecting his mechanics?  Or is it just something as simple as "he was hurt, surgery fixed it?"



#142 Jnai


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:00 AM

I wouldn't worry about a low whiff rate on the sinker -- Lackey doesn't throw it often, and it has never been a swing-and-miss pitch. When he gets whiffs, it's usually on the slider from RHB. The pitch IDs from Fenway have been off all season long because of horizontal movement error, so I wouldn't trust the sinker/fastball/cutter numbers on Lackey or Bard (or pretty much anybody else).

 

Just to note that our IDs on the player cards are not affected by this sort of thing, as they are all manually reviewed. Fangraphs PITCHf/x data is likely to suffer from those problems.

 

http://brooksbasebal...p?player=407793

 

And, yesterday's start has already been re-tagged:

http://www.brooksbas...oumlb_bosmlb_1/

 

[note the blue table, which indicates the game has been reclassified].



#143 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 09:03 AM

Remember: The Astros aren't as abysmal as we all think they are when they're at bat.  They're right in the middle of the pack when it comes to AVG. (13th), OPS. (15th) and HR (14th).  That said, their pitching is absolutely fucking abysmal.

 

It's a bit early for team stats to have normalized so I'm not sure we can say whether the Astros are a middle of the pack offense yet.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up much lower than that by September.  That said, I'm definitely encouraged by Lackey and will be very interested in his progress this season.  I've been arguing that he's significantly better than the guy we saw in 2011 and could be an asset at the back of the rotation.  I would love to be wrong on the pessimistic side.



#144 MentalDisabldLst


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 09:59 AM

How was Lackey's release point yesterday?

 

(damn board is saying I can't embed the image, so click here)

 

...looks very inconsistent.  Does anyone have a sense of whether this was from having a different position on the rubber, or was his arm slot just very variable?



#145 smastroyin


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 10:04 AM

He pitches of different ends of the rubber for L vs. R batters, IIRC



#146 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 10:12 AM

Yeah, it looks like he was mostly inconsistent against right handed batters.

 

release.php-pitchSel=407793&game=gid_201

 

Even still, I'd like to see each cluster get a bit tighter.  Might just be rust from missing a year and then the recent DL trip.

 

Edit: Should have refreshed the thread before posting.  The graphic is probably still worth leaving up, though.


Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 29 April 2013 - 10:19 AM.


#147 SouthernBoSox


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Posted 29 April 2013 - 10:23 AM

Yea, lets just chalk this up to rust.  When you think about how little he has actually pitched the last 18 or so months its actually a pretty incredible start.  There is really no reason to believe he won't gain a couple MPH on his best fastball, get a little tighter breaking ball, and better command.  Lackey said after the game his arm strength isn't even close.  I think there might still be a little hesitation there, but like Sprowl said he wasn't afraid to go to the breaking stuff and that's a big deal.

 

In his first start in Toronto he flashed stuff that we hadn't seen in years from Lackey.  He flashed the low 90's fastball with a gear up to 95 and his breaking stuff was nasty.  This was in between.  This was somewhere between that and 2010.  I'm expecting the stuff to get sharper the next 4-5 starts.  Because, like I said earlier, he just isn't anywhere close to 100% arm strength.  He just hasn't logged the pitches.  

 

His ability to back door the slider to lefties was a nice compliment to his curve, which he didn't seem to have great control of. 



#148 Saints Rest

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 11:09 AM

When they announced this would be his first start back after only one rehab start, I definitely expected a bit of rust.  I think if Aceves had been better, or if the opponent had been a better-hitting team than the Astros, then maybe we would have seen one more rehab start in the miniors for Lackey.  So I'm pleased that he got the win -- might be good for his overall confidence, as well as continuing to reduce the Lackey-hatred that built up over 2011.


If Lackey can be as good as 2010, or anywhere close to what he was when he was an Angel, that would be a HUGE addition to this team.  



#149 baghdadjamie


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Posted 30 April 2013 - 07:22 AM

When they announced this would be his first start back after only one rehab start, I definitely expected a bit of rust.  I think if Aceves had been better, or if the opponent had been a better-hitting team than the Astros, then maybe we would have seen one more rehab start in the miniors for Lackey.  So I'm pleased that he got the win -- might be good for his overall confidence, as well as continuing to reduce the Lackey-hatred that built up over 2011.


If Lackey can be as good as 2010, or anywhere close to what he was when he was an Angel, that would be a HUGE addition to this team.  

No!



#150 HillysLastWalk

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 09:36 AM

No!

 

Man I don't get this sentiment.  At.  All.  The man pitched 2011 with an arm that needed Tommy John Surgery.  His teammates love him, as you hear this sentiment all the time.  And he's crucified here because of the decisions of the Boston Red Sox managment?  When did SOSH turn into WEEI?


Edited by HillysLastWalk, 30 April 2013 - 09:38 AM.





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