63 replies to this topic

[Corsi]

Carp to Red Sox for PTBN or cash, team announces

https://twitter.com/...245753428209665

Edited by Corsi, 08 March 2013 - 01:41 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Decent depth move that made too much sense not to at least explore.  He'll turn 27 in June and had nowhere to play in Seattle.  He stands a decent chance of seeing the field in Boston and is a better bet than Overbay.  He's only a year removed from posting a .345 wOBA and a 123 wRC+ over a half a season.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

Kalish placed on 60-day DL to make room for Carp.

 

https://twitter.com/...247661391925249

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Decent depth move that made too much sense not to at least explore.  He'll turn 27 in June and had nowhere to play in Seattle.  He stands a decent chance of seeing the field in Boston and is a better bet than Overbay.  He's only a year removed from posting a .345 wOBA and a 123 wRC+ over a half a season.

 

I think he immediately leapfrogs Overbay on the depth chart simply by the fact that he's on the 40-man roster.  And having no options left probably jumps him over Nava as the 4th OF too.  Carp's a good low risk, potential high reward acquisition.

[Corsi]

He's appeared in 52 games in LF and 82 at 1B, so he looks to be the LH complement to Gomes and Napoli.

However, over his career, he owns a reverse split. .802 OPS vs LHP; .721 vs RHP

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think he immediately leapfrogs Overbay on the depth chart simply by the fact that he's on the 40-man roster.  And having no options left probably jumps him over Nava as the 4th OF too.  Carp's a good low risk, potential high reward acquisition.

 

I would assume Nava and Carp will both be on the roster, unless the Sox decide that they need the other OF to be a defensive specialist and promote Sweeney instead. It'll be interesting to see who wins the battle for primary platoon partner with Gomes in LF, though.

[Carmine Hose]

Hopefully he blossoms into another Mike with a fish for a last name.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Great move, provides much needed depth at corner OF and 1B. He's competent enough now, and only 26, so there's certainly some upside.

 

I know that he doesn't have a great reputation, but wondering he can at least sub in for Napoli late in games at first.

 

This seems like a pretty big blow to Mauro Gomez's already remote chances of making the team. Probably doesn't help Nava either.

[Corsi]

Addition of Carp by #RedSox could lead to Overbay returning to #Brewers. Overbay in Red Sox camp on minor-league contract.

https://twitter.com/...250405817315329

[Corsi]

#redsox not expected to give up a prospect of significance in deal. Fact that Carp is out of options and requires roster spot limited market

https://twitter.com/...250268806172672

[nvalvo]

He's appeared in 52 games in LF and 82 at 1B, so he looks to be the LH complement to Gomes and Napoli.

However, over his career, he owns a reverse split. .802 OPS vs LHP; .721 vs RHP

Not in the minors: 

 

@TimBritton: Carp's splits since '05, minors and majors: .250/.331/.369/.700 v. LHP; .282/.377/.498/.875 v. RHP. Not a reverse split guy.

Edited by nvalvo, 20 February 2013 - 10:49 AM.

[trekfan55]

At this point, with a backup 1B and 4th OF the logjam at catcher becomes more apparent.  Will they really break camp with 3 catchers on the 25 man roster?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

At this point, with a backup 1B and 4th OF the logjam at catcher becomes more apparent.  Will they really break camp with 3 catchers on the 25 man roster?

 

I would imagine if it came to it, they'd simply option Lavarnway to start the season.

[QUNate]

Lavarnway will probably start in AAA.

[shoebox91]

Lavarnway will probably start in AAA.

Hasn't that really been the plan anyway? I seem to remember that being addressed early in camp (barring a trade).

[bosockboy]

I'd think Carp might be the primary LF since he hits LH. Ben was smart to wait for someone like Carp to fall in his lap than overpay for Garrett Jones.

The bench appears to be Gomes/Nava/Ciriaco/Ross.

[Savin Hillbilly]

At this point, with a backup 1B and 4th OF the logjam at catcher becomes more apparent.  Will they really break camp with 3 catchers on the 25 man roster?

I can't imagine that they would, especially since Carp is not a good defensive LF by either numbers or reputation, and has essentially zero experience at the other two OF positions. They'll want a "real" 4th OF as well, whether it's Nava, Sweeney or somebody else.

EDIT--@Bosockboy: Gomes hits LHP better than RHP, but he still hits RHP nearly as well as Carp hits everybody (Gomes career .318 wOBA vs. RHP; Carp career .327 wOBA overall). Carp may be first in line to get the starts when Gomes sits, and that will usually be vs. RHP, but I can't see a full-blown platoon developing unless and until Carp gets hot for an extended period--especially since Carp, while probably better than Gomes, is no great shakes defensively.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 20 February 2013 - 11:15 AM.

[Dogman2]

I can't imagine that they would, especially since Carp is not a good defensive LF by either numbers or reputation, and has essentially zero experience at the other two OF positions. They'll want a "real" 4th OF as well, whether it's Nava, Sweeney or somebody else.

Definitely a possibility.  I will always think this team will sacrifice LF defense for a guy who can possibly make up for it at the plate.  This is why I don't think Sweeney will play much, if at all, in LF this season. I think it is Carp and Nava.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

Hasn't that really been the plan anyway? I seem to remember that being addressed early in camp (barring a trade).

 

It was.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'd think Carp might be the primary LF since he hits LH. Ben was smart to wait for someone like Carp to fall in his lap than overpay for Garrett Jones.

The bench appears to be Gomes/Nava/Ciriaco/Ross.

This is a guy with a total of 608 PA over four seasons for a bad Seattle team. I don't think anyone is planning on handing him the starting LF job unless he has a monstrous spring or something.

 

Those stats that include minors and majors are minors-heavy (just 138 PAs in the majors vs. lefties) and show an abysmal hitter against lefties. And sub-.400 slug vs. righties in the bigs (470 PAs) doesn't scream "starting LF for the Red Sox" to me.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

This is a guy with a total of 608 PA over four seasons for a bad Seattle team. I don't think anyone is planning on handing him the starting LF job unless he has a monstrous spring or something.

 

Those stats that include minors and majors are minors-heavy (just 138 PAs in the majors vs. lefties) and show an abysmal hitter against lefties. And sub-.400 slug vs. righties in the bigs (470 PAs) doesn't scream "starting LF for the Red Sox" to me.

 

 

The hope is that the disappointing numbers at the ML level are due to a combination of injuries and Safeco.  I don't think anyone's counting on him for much.  Just a low-risk flyer on a guy who stands a reasonable chance to turn it around.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Did you read what I was responding to?

[someoneanywhere]

Hopefully he blossoms into another Mike with a fish for a last name.

I think that would be the difference between a star and a starfish, my friend.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

Did you read what I was responding to?

 

Yes, I was providing potential reasons for the disappointing ML numbers you cited and otherwise agreeing with you.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think that would be the difference between a star and a starfish, my friend.

 

Or between a sport fish and a trash fish.

 

The hope is that the disappointing numbers at the ML level are due to a combination of injuries and Safeco.

 

You can't blame Safeco--he's actually got a better home wOBA (.334) than road (.321) over his short career.

OTOH, a guy who can go .334 at Safeco may not be entirely useless.

[Rovin Romine]

This is a guy with a total of 608 PA over four seasons for a bad Seattle team. I don't think anyone is planning on handing him the starting LF job unless he has a monstrous spring or something.

 

Those stats that include minors and majors are minors-heavy (just 138 PAs in the majors vs. lefties) and show an abysmal hitter against lefties. And sub-.400 slug vs. righties in the bigs (470 PAs) doesn't scream "starting LF for the Red Sox" to me.

 

Since the majority of starts will be against RHP, ideally, you want someone who can post better than a low 700 OPS (Gomes).

 

Our options are:

Nava (high .700 OPS, OBP heavy, average at defense, might play 1B, peaking at 29),

Sweeney (low .700 OPS, no power during career, plus defense, probably peaking at 28),

Carp (repeating 2010- mid .700 OPS, average at defense, can play 1B, some room to improve at 26).

 

None seem significantly better. 

 

In many ways, I think we're still looking for a *starting* LF against RHP, with Gomes as the 2nd half of the platoon.   But, since we are where we are, I'd expect that if we picked blind today, the 4th OF will be Sweeny, due to his defensive versatility, with Nava/Carp in Pawtucket waiting for an extended injury call up. 

 

Of course, Nava and Sweeney are coming off injuries, and Carp is coming of a questionable season.  If any one of them has a hot spring (showing that they are healthy and playing at their peak level) and/or Nava shows he can backup 1B, you go with that candidate.  

 

I think Nava has the best chance to contribute as a platoon partner, due to his hot half season prior to injuries.  We'll have to see how he's recovered though.

[Rovin Romine]

Or between a sport fish and a trash fish.

 

A puffer-fish and a carp.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Hopefully he blossoms into another Mike with a fish for a last name.

 

Mike Pike did bat 1.000 in the minors:  http://www.baseball-...id=pike--001mic

[joe dokes]

Hopefully he blossoms into another Mike with a fish for a last name.

 

He may not be a Trout, but we can hope for a Bass (Kevin) or a Salmon (Tim).

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Yes, I was providing potential reasons for the disappointing ML numbers you cited and otherwise agreeing with you.

 

My fault - we're on the same page.

 

Here's USS Mariner's take on the deal, FWIW:

 

Boston gets a left-handed hitter without extreme platoon splits and projections in the 1-1.5 WAR range for 2013. The Red Sox have a LF who’s easily worse defensively than Carp, and a 1B/DH with a degenerative hip condition, so Carp figures to get some playing time.

 

Surprising to me that Mariner doesn't note the MiL platoon split, but he doesn't seem too broken up over losing him.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'd expect that if we picked blind today, the 4th OF will be Sweeny, due to his defensive versatility, with Nava/Carp in Pawtucket waiting for an extended injury call up. 

 

Carp has no options left, so he can't be stashed.  Sweeney is on a minor league deal that he can opt out of if he doesn't break camp with the big club.  Nava is the only one that has options and can be sent down.  So I think, barring injuries, the most likely scenario might be Sweeney and Carp on the 25-man and Nava at Pawtucket.

[mabrowndog]

A puffer-fish and a carp.

 

We already had our go-around with Brandon.

[Frisbetarian]

I think that would be the difference between a star and a starfish, my friend.

 

Starfish!

[Plympton91]

 
Carp has no options left, so he can't be stashed.  Sweeney is on a minor league deal that he can opt out of if he doesn't break camp with the big club.  Nava is the only one that has options and can be sent down.  So I think, barring injuries, the most likely scenario might be Sweeney and Carp on the 25-man and Nava at Pawtucket.

FWIW, this is also my expectation. I think Carp will get a very long rope due to his having the most offensive upside of the quartet against righthanded pitching. His LF defense is masked at Fenway, and his hitting should improve to his MLEs if healthy and out of Safeco (no, I don't put credence in partial season splits amounting to half a seasons at bats)

[Div School Sox Fan]

Carp has no options left, so he can't be stashed.  Sweeney is on a minor league deal that he can opt out of if he doesn't break camp with the big club.  Nava is the only one that has options and can be sent down.  So I think, barring injuries, the most likely scenario might be Sweeney and Carp on the 25-man and Nava at Pawtucket.

 

Yup.  The other issue is that the 5th OF has to be capable of at least covering Fenway RF, if not center.  Carp and Nava are mediocre to poor in left, and Gomes is a DH who happens to wear a glove sometimes.  If Ellsbury gets a knock and has to sit for a couple days, we can't be running out Carp-Victorino-Nava across the outfield.  An outfielder who can run and catch  is necessary to the bench.

[Rasputin]

Yup.  The other issue is that the 5th OF has to be capable of at least covering Fenway RF, if not center.  Carp and Nava are mediocre to poor in left, and Gomes is a DH who happens to wear a glove sometimes.  If Ellsbury gets a knock and has to sit for a couple days, we can't be running out Carp-Victorino-Nava across the outfield.  An outfielder who can run and catch  is necessary to the bench.

 

And the only answer really at hand is Bryce Brentz.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And the only answer really at hand is Bryce Brentz.

 

Why would you stall Brentz's development by making a major league bench player out of him right now? I'm guessing that if he has a solid year in Pawtucket, the plan for 2014 is a Brentz-Bradley-Victorino outfield, with Gomes either moved elsewhere or turned into a platoon DH with Ortiz. But for 2013, Brentz really belongs in AAA. 

[Rasputin]

Why would you stall Brentz's development by making a major league bench player out of him right now? I'm guessing that if he has a solid year in Pawtucket, the plan for 2014 is a Brentz-Bradley-Victorino outfield, with Gomes either moved elsewhere or turned into a platoon DH with Ortiz. But for 2013, Brentz really belongs in AAA. 

You wouldn't, but any time you're bringing Brentz up, you're giving him an audition at the full time slot.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Ras has a hard-on for Brentz and mentions him any chance he can get. Sweeney will likely make the team because he can play CF and RF. Carp makes it because he can back up first.

Brentz gets called up if he's playing well an there's an opportunity for him to play every day, which likely only happens if Elllsbury or Victorino have a serious injury, or get traded.

Given that he shot himself in the off-season, and still has a lot to prove in AAA, I don't think there's a real need to think about him until mid-season.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Starfish!

 

So wrong.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't think Ras was suggesting Brentz get any consideration in April, but rather that he's one of the names you consider calling up if there's a major injury.

 

And there's a thread for discussing the outfield now.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 21 February 2013 - 09:16 AM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I don't think Ras was suggesting Brentz get any consideration in April, but rather that he's one of the names you consider calling up if there's a major injury.

Except that he was responding to a specific comment in Div School's post about what we need in a bench OF--a comment I agree with, but given where Brentz is in his development and the Sox' long-term hopes for him, he's the wrong guy for that job, and Sweeney is the right guy.

[Plympton91]

You wouldn't, but any time you're bringing Brentz up, you're giving him an audition at the full time slot.

My impression is that Brentz's best defensive position is also DH, is that wrong?

[Joshv02]

The reports are that he is generally adequate.  He is a corner OFer, not a CF who can hit enough to play corner.  His arm is supposed to be above average, and his speed a touch below average, with adequate route running.  (I've seen him only twice and didn't see anything worth remembering defensively, not that I'd have enough knowledge to be able to share it.)

[Rasputin]

Ras has a hard-on for Brentz and mentions him any chance he can get.

 

Hardly

 

Sweeney will likely make the team because he can play CF and RF. Carp makes it because he can back up first.

 

Nava is working at first too and I would imagine it's a competition between those two with everyone wishing there was a better option. 

 

 

 

Brentz gets called up if he's playing well an there's an opportunity for him to play every day, which likely only happens if Elllsbury or Victorino have a serious injury, or get traded.

Given that he shot himself in the off-season, and still has a lot to prove in AAA, I don't think there's a real need to think about him until mid-season.

 

I'm not entirely sure I buy that, though. Imagine it's June, Gomes and Carp have done well enough, but nothing more than that, and one of them gets hurt, one of those two week plus some rehab time injuries rather than a really significant injury. You look around the minors. Nava is being Nava-ish, getting on base, not having power. Bradley is going fine but you don't want to mess with his every day schedule. The rest is more or less drek. And Bryce Brentz is going along, doing what he always has, hitting pretty well despite his flaws. Don't you consider calling him up and giving him the job for a couple weeks?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Getting back to Carp for a minute...the longer I look, the more I like. Some things to think about:

 

In 2008-10, he put up consistently decent-to-good walk rates both in the minors and (in short stints) the majors. In 2011, for some reason, the plate discipline took a big step backwards at the ML level. In the meantime, his power was slowly developing, to the point where he peaked at a .300+ ISO in triple-A in 2011, followed by a respectable .190 in Seattle. 

 

Last year, the plate discipline returned with a vengeance, as he compiled his best walk rate (11.1%) so far in the majors; perhaps even more encouragingly, his O-Swing% declined significantly, from above to below league average. But at the same time, the power collapsed, with that .190 ISO falling to .128. This seems largely traceable to a shoulder injury he sustained on Opening Day and tried to come back from too quickly.

 

So the big question is: has his shoulder recovered fully? If it has, he could easily beat his .320-ish wOBA projections and be a genuinely useful offensive player. He's going to walk a fair amount and strike out a lot, with a middling BABIP; the question is his power. If he's healthy he could easily be a .200+ ISO guy and put up .260/.340/.470-ish numbers.

 

I'm going to get laughed at for this comparison, and I'm OK with that, but this could be a poor man's David Ortiz redux. When we picked up Ortiz he was coming off his age 26 season, with a career 108 OPS+; Carp is coming off his age-26 season with a career 110 OPS+. Of course Carp is never going to be Ortiz, but this could be a similarly smart buy-low pickup on a more modest scale.

[terrisus]

He may not be a Trout, but we can hope for a Bass (Kevin) or a Salmon (Tim).

 

Or he might end up being a Seabass (Alex Gonzalez)

Have we used up all the aquatic references yet?

[MalzoneExpress]

Or he might end up being a Seabass (Alex Gonzalez)

Have we used up all the aquatic references yet?

 

No, he might be a pike (Lip Pike)

[mabrowndog]

 Have we used up all the aquatic references yet?

 

Hell, we haven't even exhausted all the Sox-related aquatic references.

 

Archie Fish

 

 

 

Oscar Tejeda

 

 

 

Catfish Metkovich

 

 

 

 

"Snapper" Garrison

 

 

 

"Whale" Walters

 

 

 

Louis Herring-ton

 

 

 

Walter Sharkey

 

 

 

Chum Steinhoff

 

[URI]

I'm going to get laughed at for this comparison, and I'm OK with that, but this could be a poor man's David Ortiz redux.

 

Shut the fuck up.  I'm not laughing.