80 replies to this topic

[alexspeier]

Do you read the local competition?

Any favorites? (Even beyond the locals)

I read as much as I can of my colleagues -- though not as much as I should. We're in an era of crazy information overload, I fear. I have abiding respect for anyone who pursues the beat -- because it would be a disservice to so many peers to enumerate everyone (and wish accidentally excluding anyone), I would say that I am incredibly lucky to work with Rob Bradford in my internet neck of the woods; and John Tomase has been one of the foremost influences on my understanding of the beat, both as a writer and friend. National stuff -- man, again, too far-reaching to detail.

 

One phenomenon worthy of mention: there are an insane number of great writers who aren't on the beat. I love the work done by guys like Marc Normandin and OTM, among many others who aren't around the team on a day to day basis but are idea factories.

 

Put another way: There's more good stuff out there than there is time to read it.

[alexspeier]

Alex,

  Thanks for hanging out with us for a bit, glad to see we didn't scare you away.  The thing that has stood out during your time as a Sox beat writer (and a trait amplified, I think, by the nature of Spring Training) is that there's a high percentage of information, major or minor, that I can't read elsewhere.  In general, it seems that in sportswriting finding interesting or new angles has become subservient to promoting existing narratives proven to drive page views.  Can you talk about your approach to developing story ideas, the input your editors have into that initial generation process, and whether in your experience the balance of finding new small information to report versus expanding ongoing issues has changed?  I guess what I'm trying to say is, it feels like those of us who would rather read something new about Xander Boegart's friends or (say) Dustin Pedroia's cleats than the 1,000th rehash of the Bobby V era are an under-served audience, which is counter-intuitive to both the prime directive of being a beat writer and the proliferation of volume via the internet.  Thanks,

 

JimBoSox9

The reality of the beat is that you've got to cover it all. It's why I don't sleep much. But I do think there is middle ground between subservience to pageviews (a reality to which we all must adjust our coverage) and originality.

 

I do think it's important that in almost everything I write, readers know that there will be at least something that they haven't seen anywhere else. Otherwise, if it's just redundant to something that my colleagues have done, then what's the point?

 

As for editorial input, Rob Bradford is my editor, and he gives me complete freedom. (Obviously, no one has reined me in yet on word counts!) I abuse that privilege as much as possible.

[alexspeier]

Thanks, Alex for the chat. I really enjoy your writing and podcasts.

 

How do you feel about Cherrington as a GM? His trades look bad (Reddick and Lowrie for failed 2012 relievers), the Hanrahan deal seems like a minor upgrade and the free agent signings are pretty pedestrian. The best we can say is he has not traded any of the Killer Bs.

He's very smart and very principled and yes, he made some bad trades last year (and, to his credit, he'll acknowledge as much) -- though also some good ones. How'd the Sox get Webster/RDLR from the Dodgers in that salary dump?

 

I think we'll have a pretty good sense of the quality of his tenure as a GM in a couple years. By 2014, if the core of the "next great Red Sox team" isn't visible at the major league level, then that calls into question his blueprint. But I think he's a smart guy, very open to get intelligent, strong feedback from those around him, and so simply from the standpoint of being in charge of a baseball operations staff, I have a ton of respect for his work.

[alexspeier]

Thanks for returning to chat with us Alex!

 

The Sox signed seven primary free agents this winter (Victorino, Dempster, Drew, Gomes, Ross, Napoli & Uehara). What's your position on them in terms of valuation? Relative to the FA market, the available alternatives, and the production you expect from each, which ones do you project as bargains, as overpays, and as just about right? And why?

Napoli was an overpay initially who now could be a real bargain. Drew, I think, has the best chance to be a steal given his skill level relative to the class of average SSs. Dempster seemed like very fair value to me. Victorino and Gomes were certainly both top-of-the-market signings, though in the case of both, neither prevented the Sox from doing anything else, and indeed both opened up a lot of flexibility for the Sox moving forward -- the team can trade either of them or trade (for instance) Ellsbury or others because it signed them. I do think that while Gomes was an overpay, he was less of one than Cody Ross ended up being for the D-backs. In other words, I'd take Gomes at 2/$10M over Ross at 3/$26.5M -- no-brainer to me.

[alexspeier]

Hi,

 

You seemed somewhat more tuned-in to the minor league system than a lot of other writers who follow the Sox. Who are some players (outside of the normal names) that you have heard great buzz on, or seen and may become someone to pay attention to?

 

Thanks for chatting

Wrote about Allen Webster today -- he's certainly opening eyes in big league camp. But beyond the big names...

 

People in the organization are very excited by Margot. I've only seen him take BP, but for such a young kid, with that kind of athleticism, he's impressive. Don't sleep on Drake Britton, who may be a lottery ticket, but whose stuff is big enough to retain considerable upside. I'll be very interested to see how Pat Light and Brian Johnson do this year -- Light's fastball can do Webster-ish things.

 

Also, Travis Shaw is a favorite in the organization, and his first full pro year (I think) is widely overlooked. At some point in 2014 or 2015, he could have a considerable role with the team.

[alexspeier]

Hi Alex - thanks for doing this.

 

I have an irrational love for Jackie Bradley Jr. What do you think is the organization's plan for him in the short and long term, and what do you think his ceiling is? Will this guy make us forget all about Ellsbury in 2014?

 

I guess that depends on if Ellsbury is an MVP candidate in 2013! I think that Bradley will follow a player development path similar to the one that Ellsbury followed. He's so advanced despite relative professional inexperience that I'd guess he starts contributing at the big league level by the middle of this year. I'd guess he needs less time in Triple-A than Brentz, for instance. Ceiling? That's a tough one. Gold Glove defense, and -- again, emphasizing ceiling -- a guy who can put up .380-.400 OBPs for a few years while being an above-average baserunner (thanks to amazing instincts -- though he's not a burner) with perhaps 10-12 homers. Will he reach that? Who knows? But I don't think we'll have to wait too too long to start finding out.

[alexspeier]

Thanks for the chat Alex.  In your blog you had a running piece on the Sox salary figures going forward.  It looked like you were using AAV for each year's payroll, and for 2015 you had Lackey at the league minimum.  There seemed to be some conflicting reports posted around here about how Lackey's option was going to be applied to the teams AAV.  Do you know if it's going to be the 82.5/5 for the first 5 years and then the league minimum for 2015?

Lackey's AAV is $82.5/5 for the first 5 years and then league minimum for 2015. I've confirmed this multiple times because I had the same confusion!

[alexspeier]

Thanks for taking the time to do this, Alex. I really enjoy your balanced and analysis of all things Red Sox. I was wondering about the possibility of the Red Sox extending Pedroia. There was a little bit of buzz about it earlier this off- season, but it's died away. I can understand both points of view in regards to extending him. On the down side, he'll be 32 when the present deal is done, and 2B is a grind of a position. On the flip side, he's a terrific player, and certainly one of the two faces of the franchise. I can see the Sox building around him for the future, and locking him in before Cano's contract deal sets the market. What do you think?

I imagine they'll explore it. Wrote about this at the time of Longoria's extension -- I can see the Sox discussing a guarantee of his 2015 option and trying to do something along the lines of a "below market" (or at least below Cano) extension... Would 6/$100M do it for ages 31-36? If so, I think that'd be pretty solid for all parties.

[alexspeier]

Alex, this is a little off the beaten path, but I wonder if you know anything about Tropicana Stadium in St. Petersburg.  When James Shields was traded to the Royals, I was surprised to find that he had *much* better stats at home.  Someone subsequently told me that Tropicana Stadium is regarded as being poorly, perhaps inadequately lit.  Have the Red Sox ever complained to MLB about this?

No idea if the Sox have complained or not. But the Trop has unquestionably been a very favorable pitching environment for some years. And the lighting sucks.

[alexspeier]

Alex, I've come to believe that great pitchers like Pedro not only do something better than other pitchers. they also know just what the hell it is that they're doing, better.  What I mean is they can sense when they're dropping their elbow or opening up too early or doing any of a nearly infinite number of possible things wrong while other pitchers just keep doing them wrong and sink into habits of doing them more and more wrong.   Has there been any information out of the Red Sox about just what Jon Lester did to have such a bad year last year? 

Lester's direction to the plate was a mess last year, and that led to all kinds of bad habits with opening up too early, lowered arm slot, etc., etc. It will be interesting if fixing his mechanics will restore his velocity.
I actually do think Lester has a pretty precise understanding of his mechanics, though -- as do a number of not-so-great pitchers. Still, Pedro was unique in self-awareness of his mechanics as well as those of everyone else on a baseball field. Just a brilliant baseball mind. Unquestionably, that helped him to not just achieve but sustain greatness, particularly when he became a different pitcher from 2002-05.

[alexspeier]

Alex, don't equivocate.  Amalie Benjamin or Heidi Watney?

I was going to ignore this, but honestly -- for f's sake, have some respect for industry colleagues. I am depressed by the number of avenues for misogyny (subtle or otherwise) in sports coverage. (The notion of "pink hats" is one I find particularly objectionable -- there are any number of superficial followers of a sport who are men and who wear whatever other color.)

[alexspeier]

Philosophical preference, Alex, Plato or Aristotle?

 

Much better. Plato, if only for the idea of Platonic forms.

[alexspeier]

Wow, that's a tough act to follow.  But thanks for chatting, and you definitely set the bar for Red Sox sportswriting.

 

So my question has to do with contract insurance.  I know insurance was a big part of the escalation of salaries.  I'm also pretty sure that right around the time of the global financial meltdown, there were suggestions that teams couldn't find insurance anymore and that was holding down years and amounts.  More recently, though, I saw a couple of stories that intimated that clubs were able to get insurance on contracts - maybe through some sort of self-insurance pool?

 

Do you know if there is a viable insurance product that clubs can get to insure long-term contracts?  That would make, for example, the Felix H contract more understandable.  Also, if you happen to know any of the details I would certainly appreciate the information.

 

Bonus question - do you read any of the non-Red Sox threads on SOSH? 

 

Thanks so much for your time.

Insurance is a team-by-team phenomenon. The Sox typically don't try to insure their contracts, owing to difficulty John Henry had on collecting on a claim with (I think) Alex Fernandez with the Marlins back in the proverbial day.
The Tigers do insure, it's worth noting -- which is how they could sign Prince Fielder when Victor Martinez got injured.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Alex, you're crushing this chat right now!

 

Another question, if you've got time:

 

Much was made following Tito's book coming out of the line-ups being sent down for his consideration. What do you think is the communication between the front office stats guys and Farrell right now and for this season? Are they sending down potential line-ups? Are they giving him a bunch of spreadsheets before each series? How receptive is Farrell likely to be to stats coming down from upstairs?

[alexspeier]

Thanks for swinging by, Alex. 

 

A couple of questions about last year:

 

1. Do you feel that the results of the 2012 Red Sox was a hangover from the previous September?

 

2. You were in the clubhouse last year, how bad was it really? Even before the injuries began mounting and the losing started (mid-July) was the place as toxic as we (the fans) think?

 

3. This isn't any jab at you or your colleagues because I do understand your job and the things you have to do deal with on a daily basis, but why did it seem like the national writers broke a lot of the big stories last year? Is this the sort of thing that happens on all beats -- ie national writers hear something, write a story and leave the beat guys to follow up? Do you believe that the Boston media, as a whole, were scooped? 

 

Thanks again. 

 

The Sox did suffer under the weight of the residue of Sept. 2011. They weren't comfortable with the attention/suspicion/scrutiny. BUT, the player-to-player dynamics were fine (after spring training, when there were snitch hunts). There was a feeling of year-long unease, though -- Bobby V said it was his job to make comfortable players uncomfortable and uncomfortable players comfortable. He did a lot of the former, not so much with the latter.

 

As for stories getting broken by national guys -- that's the reality of the current climate. It's true of every market. Yep, writers in Boston were beaten on a number of major topics, and collectively, I'm sure it hurt just about every time. But at a time when there are SOOOO many different outlets, it makes sense that information gets, to a certain degree, consolidated at the national level rather than the local.

[alexspeier]

Alex:  In retrospect, it's obvious that Bobby Valentine was not the right choice for the 2012 Boston Red Sox.  But assuming Terry Francona was not a viable option, who should the Sox have chosen out of that mötley crüe of candidates?

 

I was impressed by what Sveum did with the clubhouse culture in Chicago, and based on his experience of righting the ship in Milwaukee as an interim manager.

[alexspeier]

Hi Alex,

 

 

Last March I asked Ben Cherington whether it was more important to have "big name players" that fans recognize, or lesser-known players that allow roster turnover. His answer was that "[the Red Sox] strive for a combination of proven players (those fans might recognize more) and under-valued players". He took my advice (ha) and pulled the trigger on one of the biggest trades in franchise history.

 

1) You've pretty much outlined the blueprint going forward with your recent article; do you feel that the Sox have spent the money saved from the contracts dumped in The Trade wisely? What do you think is undervalued about Jonny Gomes?

 

2)  Traditional follow-up: Who would win in a fight, a grizzly bear or a silverback gorilla?

 

1) They have spent it wisely in a sense, in that it doesn't stop them from doing anything else. The money spent has been, more or less, without opportunity cost in terms of what the team is trying to do for the long haul. Whether that gives them a decent or good team in 2013 remains to be seen. Gomes was (but no longer is) undervalued as a guy with great BB rate, P/PA, and huge power; a lineup with a lot of those guys will put up a lot of runs.

 

2) Bears are terrifying.

[alexspeier]

1. Which Pitchers do you think Farrell will be able to most positively impact by returning? Why?

2. What do you think will be the final makeup of the bullpen coming out of the spring? And what do you think it will look like in July?

3. How does de la rosa fit into the organization's plans? I understand he is not a prospect anymore by definition, but if he was, where would he be in the Sox top10? How long before we can expect to see him in Fenway?

1) Obviously, those with whom he's worked! Lester is foremost, though -- he's very, very responsive to Farrell's message. Long-term, Doubront, because I think Farrell will be good from the standpoint of keeping him motivated/hungry.

2) Can't predict July due to injuries! Spring: Hanrahan, Bailey, Tazawa, Uehara, Morales, Miller, and Breslow (if healthy) or... Mortensen (if not). But I'm probably forgetting, like, six guys.

3) RDLR would be a top five prospect, maybe No. 3. Bigger ceiling than Barnes, and he already has succeeded in THE big leagues. I'd guess June or July for him in the majors this year.

[alexspeier]

Thank you, Alex. Awful nice of you to drop in.

Most of these guys know I've got a man-crush on Christian Vazquez. I'm at ticket-holder at Flour Field, and have been for a number of years, so I not only saw Vazquez in Greenville but have seen everything else -- Sox-wise and else-wise in the Sally League -- to come through there wearing a mask. I see the questions about the bat. But I also see power and hard contact; of course I see one of the better defensive guys, especially footwork and lateral movement, in the system.

So my question: he's on the 40-man, obviously, but no one seems to talk about him as a top prospy. Where -- so far as you are able to discern -- would the Sox honestly rank him in the system?

 

Very bullish on him. There's a reason, I think, why the acquistion of Ross put the team in position where it could start listening on Lavarnway. If Vazquez was more than two years away, I don't know that such comfort would exist.

 

Best defender in the system, and there's some offensive upside. If he can hit, he's a starter. There is some pop and a decent approach there.

[alexspeier]

Thanks for dropping by Alex.

 

With John Lackey supposedly healthy and pain free for the first time in his Boston career, what are the chances that we see the Angels version take the mound for the Sox? Is this just the usual "blah blah best shape of his life blah blah blah" or is there actual reason for optimism in what he's showing this spring thus far compared with 2011?

 

His delivery looks much lower in terms of effort level this spring. Too early to know what that means, though... but I think that using 2010 (when he was pretty decent) as a floor (albeit with fewer innings) seems a reasonable expectation (given that he has aged), with the possibility that he's something between 2009 and 2010... which would be a pretty solid pitcher.

[alexspeier]

So...what do you expect out of Carl Crawford this year?  What his under-performance in Boston injury-related, Boston-related, or decline-related? 

 

All of the above? That's a lot of time without playing very much... To me, the Dodgers should have limited expectations for this year (tough to imagine him having a great approach by the time he's back on the field vs ML pitching) while hoping he can be a dynamic player by 2014 -- albeit one whose best years are behind him. Frankly, I'd expect that Adrian Gonzalez's best years are also now behind him. I think we might underestimate the long-term impact of labrum surgery on hitters' approaches.

[alexspeier]

Alex,

 

You are very knowledgeable about the farm system and you are sabermetrically inclined, in evaluating prospects how much do you believe stats matter as opposed to scouting evaluations? 

 

At the lower levels, it's primarily about stuff/tools. Stats can be terribly misleading. A huge K/9 (for instance) can occur because of a trick pitch -- 19-year-olds in Single-A just haven't seen good cutters, for instance. By the time a player gets to Triple-A, there needs to be evidence of the ability to perform against a skill level that is a decent facsimile of major league talent.

[alexspeier]

Being one that enjoys following the progress of late round draft selections like Drew Hedman and Kevin Heller, are there any sleeper prospects that might impact the Sox in the next few years that we haven't heard about?

Kyle Stroup! Mr. Irrelevant, c. 2008 -- healthy again, with huge stuff if he can stay healthy.

[alexspeier]

What is your approach to stories that include a medical component?

 

Injury and medical information can be very confusing between deliberate obfuscation and privacy laws. Are you able to / do you report what you see and what you hear around the team? Or do you wait for official, on-the-record info to be released?

 

Thanks!

 

To whatever degree possible, I try to get a fuller understanding of medical issues from outside the organization in addition to discussions with people in the org (or official information from the team). But you're right -- it's a tough area to explore, particularly given my utter lack of medical expertise, and the privacy laws that limit our precise understanding of players' conditions.

[alexspeier]

Alex, has the way that the organization interacts with the press changed at all with the return of Charles Steinberg?

 

Honestly, the biggest change from a media perspective, at least this spring, comes from the hiring of Farrell (familiar to a lot of us, and pretty precise in a lot of his answers, with misinformation about small logistical matters that fill notebooks no longer a major concern) and the acquisition of a number of very engaging players.

[alexspeier]

Alex, what do you see out of Ellsbury this year? 

 

All-Star if healthy. I am not sure that I've ever seen up close so comprehensively dazzling a season as 2011 (which makes it all the more ridiculous that Ellsbury in 2011 was essentially a lite version of Trout 2012).

[alexspeier]

An addendum to SoxLegacy's post above:

 

Last year, Pedroia had an OPS of .797 and OPS+ of 112, considerably below his 2011 OPS of .861 and OPS+ of 131. (For his career, he's .830 and 117.) He'll turn 30 in August. What are you expecting from him this year, and what do you see from him in the next two or three years? Thanks. 

 

The great mystery is his health. Tough to say whether he plays the game so hard that a number of unusual hand/thumb/finger injuries will continue to plague him going forward. If he can remain healthy, I'd expect him to continue to perform close to (and probaby slightly above) career norms. He was doing incredibly things when injured in 2010, and an MVP candidate through August 2011.

[alexspeier]

Alex, have you gotten any greater detail from the Red Sox about specific ways in which Bill James had been involved in the baseball operations staff's process and over time been left out and with which he's expected to be involved again?

Specifics? Not so much. Just that his opinion - or, more importantly, his framing of questions to consider a matter - started to wane in importance over time, and that his feedback is being more actively solicited now. Cherington and the front office really are redoubling efforts to get a number of voices involved in the baseball operation -- James, Pedro, Varitek, Eddie Bane, others. Seems like it's getting closer to the more inclusive decision-making model of 2003-08 (or 09) that lent itself to so much success. But I'm not on the inner circle, so that's just a guess.

[alexspeier]

That's all I have time for right now -- I'll try to get to a few more questions later in the week if the thread remains unlocked.

 

But, if I don't: Thanks so much to all of you for submitting the outstanding and challenging array of questions. Really enjoyed the chance to think through some of what you wanted to discuss. And thanks also for taking the time to read my cumbersome articles -- I really do appreciate both the passionate audience and any feedback that you guys might have.

 

Cheers,

Alex

[absintheofmalaise]

Thanks Alex. We really appreciate you taking the time out to do this with us.

[FelixMantilla]

Very interesting. Thank you Alex!