206 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

 

http://espn.go.com/b...n-espn-networks

Edited by SoxScout, 12 February 2013 - 08:52 PM.

[Adrian's Dome]

Wow, all but two games televised? Nice.

 

(edit: I am dumb.)

Edited by Adrian's Dome, 13 February 2013 - 03:53 AM.

[Rasputin]

Wow, all but two games televised? Nice.

No...that's just a list of games that have a broadcast.

 

But, there is WBC action so I'm gonna be good.

[Rasputin]

And I will reiterate my yearly thing. Just put a camera up and pipe in some crowd noise, and I'm good.

[Dick Pole Upside]

I seriously hope you're merely ridiculing the perpetually-questioning and always-wondering Rudy Pemberton, and not actually asking how such a thing happens. Please tell me you're not that naive.

 

Anyway...

 

 

Alex Speier @alexspeier

Buchholz had a mild hamstring strain covering 1B. He's day to day.

 

Tom Caron @TomCaron

John Farrell calls it a "mild strain."

Regardless, it's pathetic and mildly disgusting that a guy who has had four months to get prepared can't make it through one of the first drills of the Spring.  It's not like they were running a freaking Spartan Race/Tough Mudder... Boo.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Regardless, it's pathetic and mildly disgusting that a guy who has had four months to get prepared can't make it through one of the first drills of the Spring.  It's not like they were running a freaking Spartan Race/Tough Mudder... Boo.

 

All the preparation and working out in the world isn't an iron-clad guarantee that a player is going to avoid all injury, including tweaks and pulls on the first day of camp.

 

That doesn't mean Buchholz isn't out of shape, but why is that automatically the assumption instead of, hey, shit happens?

[mabrowndog]

 

http://espn.go.com/b...n-espn-networks

 

The 3/21 and 3/30 games are actually on NESN Plus, as they coincide with Bruins games on NESN.

[seantoo]

It's a shame that there wasn't more clarity regarding the philosophy and how it changed; would have been nice for Henry to be more detailed about what he's referring to. It's kind of hard to decipher.

I don't think he ever will, becuase I think Theo Epstein was dead on. The focus became on making sexy additions ect to reach out to the pink hat crowd & "feed the  monster". Based on what Theo mentioned many years ago, roster flexibility in particular, it seems obvious to me anyway, that Lackey & Crawford was not championed by him. Henry is not going to throw himself under the bus.

[dynomite]

And I will reiterate my yearly thing. Just put a camera up and pipe in some crowd noise, and I'm good.

 

I will say that I disagree with this in Spring Training.  With so many players in camp, so many lineup changes every inning, and especially when the names aren't on the uniforms, it's useful to have someone note those changes when 90% of the time you're only seeing pitcher/catcher/batter on the screen.

[Rasputin]

I will say that I disagree with this in Spring Training.  With so many players in camp, so many lineup changes every inning, and especially when the names aren't on the uniforms, it's useful to have someone note those changes when 90% of the time you're only seeing pitcher/catcher/batter on the screen.

Useful, sure.

 

Given a choice between a no commentary broadcast of a spring training game and no broadcast of a spring training game, which do you pick?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I will say that I disagree with this in Spring Training.  With so many players in camp, so many lineup changes every inning, and especially when the names aren't on the uniforms, it's useful to have someone note those changes when 90% of the time you're only seeing pitcher/catcher/batter on the screen.

 

I'm with Ras, but I'd add a graphic with that info on to the screen.  Put an intern in front of the chyron machine and let them note those details.  They've got someone updating the online Gamecast thing with the same info already, just put that info on screen.

[shoebox91]

will i be able to listen to those ST games on the WEEI app?

[Corsi]

will i be able to listen to those ST games on the WEEI app?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the ST games broadcast free on MLB Audio?

[sachilles]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the ST games broadcast free on MLB Audio?

I think so, but I seem to remember it being only if you were a previous subscriber.

[Dgilpin]

Win totals are out for all MLB teams , and the Sox are o/u 79.5

http://forums.viewfr....aspx?id=359608

[Rasputin]

Win totals are out for all MLB teams , and the Sox are o/u 79.5

http://forums.viewfr....aspx?id=359608

That strikes me as a pretty easy over.

[The Gray Eagle]

Here are those Vegas picks, broken down by division and league

(apologies in advance for any transcribing or simple basic arithmetic errors, and/or putting a team in the wrong division):

 

AL East:

NYY: 86½

Tor: 86½

TB: 86

Bos: 79½

Balt: 76½

 

AL Central:

Tigers 90

White Sox 80½

Royals 79

Indians 77½

Twins 64½

 

AL West:

Angels 89½

Rangers 87

Athletics 83

Mariners 76½

Astros 59½

 

NL East:

Nationals 90

Braves 86

Phillies 81½

Mets 74

Marlins 64½

 

NL Central:

Reds 88½

Cardinals 85½

Brewers 79½
Pirates 79

Cubs 72

NL West:
Dodgers 90

Giants 86

D’Backs 81½

Padres 74½
Rockies 71½
 

More importantly, here is the AL Wild Card race:

 

First WC: Rangers: 87

2nd Wild Card: NYY or Tor: 86½

 

Games out of 2nd wild card:

TB: 86                   ½

A's: 83                   3½

White Sox: 80½     6

Red Sox: 79½        7             

Royals: 79              7½

 

So Vegas doesn't like us much, that's a pretty dismal outlook.

 

But if we can beat projections by 5 games or so then we should be in the playoff race.

[SouthernBoSox]

Holy Astros. I know they suck, but that's a low over/under.

[adam42381]

So, I'll be ignorantly putting some money on the Sox over. Of course, it could be the combination of booze/spring training in town causing me to make an irrational decision...

[Buckner's Boots]

Is it strange that my initial reaction is to bet the over on the entire AL East? 

[Rasputin]

Is it strange that my initial reaction is to bet the over on the entire AL East? 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if everyone made it over those numbers. 

[E5 Yaz]

Holy Astros. I know they suck, but that's a low over/under.

 

And you still should bet the under

[Rough Carrigan]

And you still should bet the under

Amen.

The Astros lost 107 games last year in the NL Central.  In the NL.  And this past offseason they've been shedding any players with any kind of contract.  You know, the best players on the team that lost 107 games.  In the NL.

Give me the under, too.

[wutang112878]

I wouldn't be surprised if everyone made it over those numbers. 

 

They completely screwed up the O/U in the AL East.  They have the AL East down for 415 wins in total, on the whole 180 of them will come in the 360 division games, leaving 235 wins to get in 450 out of division games, or ~52% baseball.  I am sure at least one team will have a tough year with injuries or something, but it should be pretty easy for 4 teams to do that and very likely for 3 to do it.

[Rasputin]

Amen.

The Astros lost 107 games last year in the NL Central.  In the NL.  And this past offseason they've been shedding any players with any kind of contract.  You know, the best players on the team that lost 107 games.  In the NL.

Give me the under, too.

 

It's too bad Miami already has a team. The Mets 40 wins is still the record low in the 162 game era, right? I don't know if they can lose than many, but if they're in striking distance at the break I'm going to start paying attention to it. 

[Rudy Pemberton]

Well, those projections would have the entire league 20 games under .500. Granted, they are over / unders and the first ones at that, and will be interesting to see how they move. The Sox, expected to come in 4th, in a pretty tight division seems to match pretty well with expectations. Seems like there's a few awful teams, a few very good, and then everyone else.

[ShaneTrot]

I know I am irrational about the MFY but that seems to be a high number for them. They are old, they lost a lot of offense, I will believe Jeter, Sabathia and Rivera are healthy when they put up some good numbers. There must be a lot of people who think Cano is going to have a monster year because they are pretty thin offensively.

[mabrowndog]

Looks like Mike F has a "Spring Training Reports" protege in the Sandbox.

[Frisbetarian]

Well, those projections would have the entire league 20 games under .500. Granted, they are over / unders and the first ones at that, and will be interesting to see how they move. The Sox, expected to come in 4th, in a pretty tight division seems to match pretty well with expectations. Seems like there's a few awful teams, a few very good, and then everyone else.

 

I noticed that, too.

 

 

Those Vegas projections only add up to 2406 wins, but 30 teams playing .500 ball would win 2430 games. Therefore, the aggregate W/L for MLB, per those predictions, would be 2406 - 2454, 24 games under .500. They have the AL playing 13 games below .500 (1202 wins), and the NL 11 games under (1204 wins).

 

The divisions break down like this:

 

AL East 415 wins, 10 games over .500

AL Central 391.5 wins, 13.5 games under .500

AL West 395.5 wins, 9.5 games under .500

NL East 396 wins, 9 games under .500

NL Central 404.5 wins, .5 games under .500

NL West 403.5 wins, 1.5 games under .500

 

I've never looked at the preseason win projections before, so maybe they always are low, but it seems to me that someone could game the system. 

[Rudy Pemberton]

I know I am irrational about the MFY but that seems to be a high number for them. They are old, they lost a lot of offense, I will believe Jeter, Sabathia and Rivera are healthy when they put up some good numbers. There must be a lot of people who think Cano is going to have a monster year because they are pretty thin offensively.

 

I think that # reflects those concerns, though. They were a 95 win team last year. I hope they win less than 87 games, but it seems somewhat unlikely. They definitely lack in depth; but I think you can say the same for everyone in the AL East.

[Montana Fan]

Looks like Mike F has a "Spring Training Reports" protege in the Sandbox.

Get that man a contract!

[wutang112878]

Those Vegas projections only add up to 2406 wins, but 30 teams playing .500 ball would win 2430 games. Therefore, the aggregate W/L for MLB, per those predictions, would be 2406 - 2454, 24 games under .500.

 

I've never looked at the preseason win projections before, so maybe they always are low, but it seems to me that someone could game the system. 

 

 

I dont disagree with your math, but I believe the reason they are low is to get a 50/50 split on bets, not to predict where all 2406 wins will be.  I am not a big gambler, but what I have been told by others is that the intent of some of the Vegas O/Us is to get 50% of the money in each direction and make money on the pushes.  Not sure if this is how all the sports books do it, but I believe this is one of the strategies they use to go with a low risk strategy.

[xpisblack]

I know I am irrational about the MFY but that seems to be a high number for them. They are old, they lost a lot of offense, I will believe Jeter, Sabathia and Rivera are healthy when they put up some good numbers. There must be a lot of people who think Cano is going to have a monster year because they are pretty thin offensively.

The last time they won fewer than 87 games was 1995's 79-win LDS loss.  I understand the concerns about age and absent offense and all, but children born during their last sub-87-win season can vote this year.  Relying on Youkilis in place of Rodriguez at 3B costs them about a win, going unfairly by 2012 numbers, but I'm not sure that the other changes and aging can reliably add up to a dip of 9; the other teams in the division haven't got that much better, and they get to play the Astros six times.  I'm not saying they'll repeat at 95, but, as much as I might hope for a sub-80-win season from them, I can't really expect it.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Not surprisingly, the Sox are going to be long shots to win the Series.  Currently at 30-1.

 

http://www.viewfromv...s_and_Ends.html

 

Might be a good year to write off 100 bucks on the slim chance they make a run and shock the experts if you're in a position to piss away a c-note.

[pokey_reese]

I think the Sox are a good over, and the Marlins are a team I might take the under one, considering their own fire sale.  But the best bet on that board to me looks like the Nationals at 90 wins.  I plan to kill the over on that.  That team won 98 games last year and did nothing but improve over the winter.  Full season of Strasburg?  New closer?  Older Harper?  I'm buying that.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

BP's Pecota Projections are out

 

http://www.baseballp...#commentMessage

 

(Not sure if that is subscriber only)

 

It has the Sox with an expected W/L % of .516 - 84-78 - good enough for 3rd place behind the Yankees (88-74) and the Rays (84-78) but ahead of the BlueJays (83-79) and the Orioles (75/87).

 

The Sox record, if not position, seems about right to me.

 

Overall the projections seem to have been heavily regressed - no 90 win teams and the worst - the Astros - are at 68-94

 

It - not surprisingly in my opinion - has the Orioles at 75/87. BlueJay fans are also not going to be happy about this. Most of the Comments are from Bitter Oriole Fans

[SoxScout]

Felix Doubront reported in poor shape and the staff isn’t happy about it. He had conditioning problems in 2011, too.

http://www.boston.co..._trainin_3.html

[Red(s)HawksFan]

http://www.boston.co..._trainin_3.html

 

If Morales was wise enough to show up in great shape, this could make things very interesting for the 5th spot in the rotation.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

http://www.boston.co..._trainin_3.html

I got a laugh out of this...

Coaching staff assistant Ino Guerrero was serving as the third base coach during a base running drill. He was waving his arm counter-clockwise as the runners came around. “Wrong way, Ino,” shouted Dustin Pedroia.

[curly2]

Doubront's 2011 was pretty much a total loss from coming in out of shape. How did he not learn from that?

 

Here's a tip, Felix, keep yourself in shape the next 10 years of so, then you can spend the rest of your days fat and happy off the money you earn in MLB,

[The Gray Eagle]

Pecota is a lot more positive than the Vegas line:

 

Red Sox at 39.4% chance of making the playoffs, though it drops down to 28.3% when adjusted. 3.2% chance of winning the World Series.

 

AL Wild Card race:

 

Texas: 85.4

TB: 84.2

Bos: 83.6

Tor: 82.7

A's: 82.5

 

Pecota showing the Sox in a very tight wild card race, 5 teams finishing within 3 games of each other.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Pecota showing the Sox in a very tight wild card race, 5 teams finishing within 3 games of each other.

 

This is about where I am with the current roster.  I think they'll be good enough to keep it interesting right down to the wire.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I imagine there will be a lot of folks fired (and perhaps another change of address for some former marlins) if the Jays win only 83. Would have expected the projections on them to be a little more bullish.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Napoli has MRI, expects to be ready for Opening Day.

 

http://hardballtalk....hasnt-worsened/

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Napoli has MRI, expects to be ready for Opening Day.

 

http://hardballtalk....hasnt-worsened/

 

I'm a bit baffled by the kid gloves treatment he's getting.  He's asymptomatic...has been all along.  Why are they treating him like he's returning from a severe injury?  I keep reading phrases like "taking it slow" and "easing into things".  Isn't his condition something that is by nature a bit unpredictable?  Theoretically, aren't the chances that he plays full out with zero concerns (like he didn't know about the condition) and gets through the entire season without a problem just as likely as treating him like a piece of glass and having him the hip completely fail before Opening Day?

 

I understand the regular MRIs to monitor the situation, and he's on meds to treat the condition.  Is there really any reason he can't otherwise do normal baseball things with no concerns?  I can't help but think about how Brett Favre was diagnosed with the same condition early in his career, and then playing his entire career without it ever being an issue or concern, at least not publicly.  We never heard about him taking it slow in training camp to protect his hip...his various other injuries that always threatened to but never did take him out of a game, but never his hip.

 

The condition rightly caused the team to shorten the length of his deal.  Is it really something that should be curtailing his ability to prepare for the season just the same as the rest of the team?

[redsoxstiff]

Doubront's 2011 was pretty much a total loss from coming in out of shape. How did he not learn from that?
 
Here's a tip, Felix, keep yourself in shape the next 10 years of so, then you can spend the rest of your days fat and happy off the money you earn in MLB,

Out of shape and a youngish fatty (and moi an old fatty) leaves me screaming at the top of my lungs...Get him far,far away...

Little control and less brains...out,out I say...

[Dick Pole Upside]

Perhaps some it relates to the perception that the Sox are perpetually injury-ravaged, and they are over-compensating early with Napoli, Ortiz, Buchholz, Doubrant, and Breslow. "Plenty of time"... "Longer ST than usual due to WBC"... "New culture"... "We're professionals, we know what we have to do to be ready"... Yadda yadda

[joyofsox]

 Most will say it’s too early to discuss, but Farrell indicated Thursday some of his thoughts about the possible batting order, specifically the No. 3 spot in the order. 

“If I was to sketch something out, it would be David against right-handers and it might be Pedroia against left-handers,” Farrell said. “That way it puts [Shane] Victorino in the 2-hole against some left-handed pitching to take advantage of his splits. The guy that obviously has a lot of production against lefties is [Jonny] Gomes as well. There’s thought and variations to it, but that’s one of them.”

 

http://espn.go.com/b...ino-looks-ahead

[SoxScout]

Versus LHP I don't think it matters much. We should pound lefties drawing out of a hat.

 

I don't like moving Ortiz up to #3 vs RHP though. Keep Ells, Pedroia and Ortiz locked in 1-3-4. Ortiz is our best hitter against RHP and #3 is a less important spot than #4 (or #2 or #1, according to the lineup construction chapters in The Book).

 

Have Victorino and Drew platoon in the #2 spot, and lock Napoli in behind Ortiz.

 

[Pearl Wilson]

Per Napoli --

 

I'm a bit baffled by the kid gloves treatment he's getting.  He's asymptomatic...has been all along.  Why are they treating him like he's returning from a severe injury? 

 

Me too. Cherington:

Though Cherington said that Mike Napoli and David Ortiz might not be playing in the first games of the spring training

 

Why on earth can he not play in games as soon as they start?