I was wondering if the Pats 2012 TO and point differential gaudy stats were a bit misleading. I remembered the 2 Bills games where the defense got a quarter of the turnovers, our 4 TOs against the 49ers, and our inability to get turnovers from the Ravens. I thought that our great turnover and scoring differential might be a function of our opponents, and beating up on bad teams was how we accumulated the impressive gross numbers.
I took the 2012 schedule and adjusted the takeaways, giveaways, points scored and points allowed. So for example, in our game against Denver, we won 31 to 21, we had 1 turnover and they had 3. Denver averaged ~30 points a game scoring, 1.56 giveaways a game, while their defense allowed ~18 points on average and generated 1.5 takeaways a game. I used these averages to adjust our results for the game: so I calculated points scored above average = 31 - 18, giveaways above average = 1.5 -1, points allowed above average = 30 - 21, and takeaways above average = 3 - 1.56 Basically this summarizes how the Pats played against a team in comparison to how that team's normal output, because holding the Texans to 14 points is much more impressive than holding the Jaguars to 16 points. I calculated this for every team for every opponent, and then summed up the differential in each category for the season.
I assumed I would find that once adjusted the Pats adjusted stats were indicative of a good but not elite team, but in almost category they are elite:
- Adjusted Takeaways: 2nd in the league with 14.5 adjusted, their 41 takeaways ranked 2nd in the league
- Points Allowed (the only real non-elite stats): 17th in the league with 7.8 adjusted, their ~20 points allowed average ranked 10th in the league
- Giveaways: 6th in the league with 7.1 adjusted (the higher the better the way I calculated it), their 1 giveaway a game was tied for 2nd in the league with 3 other teams
- Points Scored: 1st in the league with 198 adjusted (the closest team was Denver with 108 adjusted), their 34.8 points per game was 1st in the league
- Turnover Differential: 1st in the league with 21.6, compared to +25 which was also 1st in the league
- Point Differential: 1st in the league with 205.8, compared to +226 which was also 1st in the league
Thought others might find this interesting from a Pats perspective and looking at other teams as well. I was shocked to see the Giants numbers considering they missed the playoffs, I figured Washington was really smoke and mirrors but the data suggests othersise, and Seattle is so much better than I thought they were.
Summary Table:
| Team | Takeaway | Points Allowed | Giveaway | Points Scored | TO Differential | Point Differential |
| Patriots | 14.5625 | 7.8125 | 7.125 | 198.0625 | 21.6875 | 205.875 |
| Bears | 20.0625 | 86.5625 | -1.25 | 8.6875 | 18.8125 | 95.25 |
| Redskins | 5.75 | -19.1875 | 9.8125 | 65.5 | 15.5625 | 46.3125 |
| Giants | 11.4375 | 35.1875 | 2.625 | 58.4375 | 14.0625 | 93.625 |
| Seahawks | 5.75 | 108.375 | 7.25 | 63.5625 | 13 | 171.9375 |
| 49ers | -0.125 | 92.0625 | 11.375 | 49.875 | 11.25 | 141.9375 |
| Falcons | 4.75 | 69.0625 | 5.6875 | 25.3125 | 10.4375 | 94.375 |
| Texans | 3.25 | 31 | 6.75 | 35.1875 | 10 | 66.1875 |
| Packers | -1.5625 | 30.125 | 10.75 | 71.875 | 9.1875 | 102 |
| Ravens | -0.75 | 23.75 | 9.4375 | 38.6875 | 8.6875 | 62.4375 |
| Panthers | -1.1875 | 23.125 | 4.25 | -11.6875 | 3.0625 | 11.4375 |
| Saints | 2.6875 | -78.1875 | 0.1875 | 98.25 | 2.875 | 20.0625 |
| Rams | -2.875 | 25.25 | 5.625 | -37.75 | 2.75 | -12.5 |
| Buccaneers | 1.75 | -18.6875 | 0.875 | 13.3125 | 2.625 | -5.375 |
| Vikings | -1.1875 | 20.8125 | 3.625 | 20.375 | 2.4375 | 41.1875 |
| Bengals | 4.3125 | 21.75 | -3.125 | 22.5 | 1.1875 | 44.25 |
| Cardinals | 9.5 | 14.5 | -8.6875 | -83.1875 | 0.8125 | -68.6875 |
| Browns | 2.75 | -5.25 | -3.1875 | -64.3125 | -0.4375 | -69.5625 |
| Broncos | -0.75 | 69 | 0 | 108.875 | -0.75 | 177.875 |
| Chargers | 1.375 | 1.75 | -2.9375 | -26 | -1.5625 | -24.25 |
| Jaguars | -2.3125 | -74.25 | -1.5 | -119.8125 | -3.8125 | -194.0625 |
| Titans | -1.3125 | -110.3125 | -3.6875 | -35.25 | -5 | -145.5625 |
| Cowboys | -7.1875 | -16.875 | -1.3125 | 17.875 | -8.5 | 1 |
| Raiders | -6.8125 | -88 | -2.3125 | -69.0625 | -9.125 | -157.0625 |
| Dolphins | -9.875 | 43.0625 | 0.25 | -80.8125 | -9.625 | -37.75 |
| Steelers | -6 | 38.875 | -5.375 | -38.5625 | -11.375 | 0.3125 |
| Lions | -6.0625 | -75.1875 | -6.5625 | 26.9375 | -12.625 | -48.25 |
| Colts | -10.875 | -40.5 | -1.9375 | -26.8125 | -12.8125 | -67.3125 |
| Bills | -4.5625 | -92.4375 | -8.8125 | -11.9375 | -13.375 | -104.375 |
| Jets | -1.75 | -13.75 | -11.6875 | -74.375 | -13.4375 | -88.125 |
| Eagles | -10.75 | -59.1875 | -10.5 | -89.625 | -21.25 | -148.8125 |
| Chiefs | -12 | -50.25 | -12.75 | -154.125 | -24.75 | -204.375 |
Edited by wutang112878, 26 January 2013 - 09:16 PM.
