I was wondering if the Pats 2012 TO and point differential gaudy stats were a bit misleading. I remembered the 2 Bills games where the defense got a quarter of the turnovers, our 4 TOs against the 49ers, and our inability to get turnovers from the Ravens. I thought that our great turnover and scoring differential might be a function of our opponents, and beating up on bad teams was how we accumulated the impressive gross numbers.
I took the 2012 schedule and adjusted the takeaways, giveaways, points scored and points allowed. So for example, in our game against Denver, we won 31 to 21, we had 1 turnover and they had 3. Denver averaged ~30 points a game scoring, 1.56 giveaways a game, while their defense allowed ~18 points on average and generated 1.5 takeaways a game. I used these averages to adjust our results for the game: so I calculated points scored above average = 31 - 18, giveaways above average = 1.5 -1, points allowed above average = 30 - 21, and takeaways above average = 3 - 1.56 Basically this summarizes how the Pats played against a team in comparison to how that team's normal output, because holding the Texans to 14 points is much more impressive than holding the Jaguars to 16 points. I calculated this for every team for every opponent, and then summed up the differential in each category for the season.
I assumed I would find that once adjusted the Pats adjusted stats were indicative of a good but not elite team, but in almost category they are elite:
- Adjusted Takeaways: 2nd in the league with 14.5 adjusted, their 41 takeaways ranked 2nd in the league
- Points Allowed (the only real non-elite stats): 17th in the league with 7.8 adjusted, their ~20 points allowed average ranked 10th in the league
- Giveaways: 6th in the league with 7.1 adjusted (the higher the better the way I calculated it), their 1 giveaway a game was tied for 2nd in the league with 3 other teams
- Points Scored: 1st in the league with 198 adjusted (the closest team was Denver with 108 adjusted), their 34.8 points per game was 1st in the league
- Turnover Differential: 1st in the league with 21.6, compared to +25 which was also 1st in the league
- Point Differential: 1st in the league with 205.8, compared to +226 which was also 1st in the league
Thought others might find this interesting from a Pats perspective and looking at other teams as well. I was shocked to see the Giants numbers considering they missed the playoffs, I figured Washington was really smoke and mirrors but the data suggests othersise, and Seattle is so much better than I thought they were.
|Team||Takeaway||Points Allowed||Giveaway||Points Scored||TO Differential||Point Differential|
Edited by wutang112878, 26 January 2013 - 09:16 PM.