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2012 Expected/Adjusted Turnover and Point Differential - Pats Rankings


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#1 wutang112878

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 09:08 PM

I was wondering if the Pats 2012 TO and point differential gaudy stats were a bit misleading.  I remembered the 2 Bills games where the defense got a quarter of the turnovers, our 4 TOs against the 49ers, and our inability to get turnovers from the Ravens.  I thought that our great turnover and scoring differential might be a function of our opponents, and beating up on bad teams was how we accumulated the impressive gross numbers.

 

I took the 2012 schedule and adjusted the takeaways, giveaways, points scored and points allowed.  So for example, in our game against Denver, we won 31 to 21, we had 1 turnover and they had 3.  Denver averaged ~30 points a game scoring, 1.56 giveaways a game, while their defense allowed ~18 points on average and generated 1.5 takeaways a game.  I used these averages to adjust our results for the game: so I calculated points scored above average = 31 - 18, giveaways above average = 1.5 -1, points allowed above average = 30 - 21, and takeaways above average = 3 - 1.56   Basically this summarizes how the Pats played against a team in comparison to how that team's normal output, because holding the Texans to 14 points is much more impressive than holding the Jaguars to 16 points.  I calculated this for every team for every opponent, and then summed up the differential in each category for the season.

 

I assumed I would find that once adjusted the Pats adjusted stats were indicative of a good but not elite team, but in almost category they are elite:

  • Adjusted Takeaways: 2nd in the league with 14.5 adjusted, their 41 takeaways ranked 2nd in the league
  • Points Allowed (the only real non-elite stats): 17th in the league with 7.8 adjusted, their ~20 points allowed average ranked 10th in the league
  • Giveaways: 6th in the league with 7.1 adjusted (the higher the better the way I calculated it), their 1 giveaway a game was tied for 2nd in the league with 3 other teams
  • Points Scored: 1st in the league with 198 adjusted (the closest team was Denver with 108 adjusted), their 34.8 points per game was 1st in the league
  • Turnover Differential: 1st in the league with 21.6, compared to +25 which was also 1st in the league
  • Point Differential: 1st in the league with 205.8, compared to +226 which was also 1st in the league

 

Thought others might find this interesting from a Pats perspective and looking at other teams as well.  I was shocked to see the Giants numbers considering they missed the playoffs, I figured Washington was really smoke and mirrors but the data suggests othersise, and Seattle is so much better than I thought they were.

 

Summary Table:

 

 

2012 Adjusted Stats
Team Takeaway Points Allowed Giveaway Points Scored TO Differential Point Differential
Patriots 14.5625 7.8125 7.125 198.0625 21.6875 205.875
Bears  20.0625 86.5625 -1.25 8.6875 18.8125 95.25
Redskins  5.75 -19.1875 9.8125 65.5 15.5625 46.3125
Giants 11.4375 35.1875 2.625 58.4375 14.0625 93.625
Seahawks  5.75 108.375 7.25 63.5625 13 171.9375
49ers -0.125 92.0625 11.375 49.875 11.25 141.9375
Falcons  4.75 69.0625 5.6875 25.3125 10.4375 94.375
Texans  3.25 31 6.75 35.1875 10 66.1875
Packers -1.5625 30.125 10.75 71.875 9.1875 102
Ravens  -0.75 23.75 9.4375 38.6875 8.6875 62.4375
Panthers  -1.1875 23.125 4.25 -11.6875 3.0625 11.4375
Saints 2.6875 -78.1875 0.1875 98.25 2.875 20.0625
Rams -2.875 25.25 5.625 -37.75 2.75 -12.5
Buccaneers 1.75 -18.6875 0.875 13.3125 2.625 -5.375
Vikings  -1.1875 20.8125 3.625 20.375 2.4375 41.1875
Bengals  4.3125 21.75 -3.125 22.5 1.1875 44.25
Cardinals  9.5 14.5 -8.6875 -83.1875 0.8125 -68.6875
Browns  2.75 -5.25 -3.1875 -64.3125 -0.4375 -69.5625
Broncos  -0.75 69 0 108.875 -0.75 177.875
Chargers 1.375 1.75 -2.9375 -26 -1.5625 -24.25
Jaguars  -2.3125 -74.25 -1.5 -119.8125 -3.8125 -194.0625
Titans  -1.3125 -110.3125 -3.6875 -35.25 -5 -145.5625
Cowboys  -7.1875 -16.875 -1.3125 17.875 -8.5 1
Raiders  -6.8125 -88 -2.3125 -69.0625 -9.125 -157.0625
Dolphins  -9.875 43.0625 0.25 -80.8125 -9.625 -37.75
Steelers  -6 38.875 -5.375 -38.5625 -11.375 0.3125
Lions  -6.0625 -75.1875 -6.5625 26.9375 -12.625 -48.25
Colts  -10.875 -40.5 -1.9375 -26.8125 -12.8125 -67.3125
Bills  -4.5625 -92.4375 -8.8125 -11.9375 -13.375 -104.375
Jets -1.75 -13.75 -11.6875 -74.375 -13.4375 -88.125
Eagles  -10.75 -59.1875 -10.5 -89.625 -21.25 -148.8125
Chiefs -12 -50.25 -12.75 -154.125 -24.75 -204.375


Edited by wutang112878, 26 January 2013 - 09:16 PM.


#2 epraz


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Posted 27 January 2013 - 01:31 PM

Say what now?



#3 Reverend


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Posted 27 January 2013 - 01:38 PM

TO-PointDiff_zps117f41e5.jpg

 

 

Shit.

 

This really doesn't make me feel better about how I spend my Sunday afternoons.



#4 Reverend


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Posted 27 January 2013 - 01:43 PM

Say what now?

 

 

sports.png



#5 Super Nomario


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Posted 27 January 2013 - 02:00 PM

Shit.

 

This really doesn't make me feel better about how I spend my Sunday afternoons.

The correlation runs both ways, though. League-wide the turnover rate is double when teams are already losing vs when they are winning - they pass more (inherently riskier with interceptions and strip sacks) and they likely force riskier throws (does Brady throw that second interception Sunday if the game is tied? I doubt it). Of course there's a sample bias here (shitty teams are more likely to be losing) but even good teams tend to cough it up more when behind.


Edited by Super Nomario, 27 January 2013 - 02:00 PM.


#6 Reverend


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Posted 27 January 2013 - 02:05 PM

The correlation runs both ways, though. League-wide the turnover rate is double when teams are already losing vs when they are winning - they pass more (inherently riskier with interceptions and strip sacks) and they likely force riskier throws (does Brady throw that second interception Sunday if the game is tied? I doubt it). Of course there's a sample bias here (shitty teams are more likely to be losing) but even good teams tend to cough it up more when behind.

 

 

I'm also told the error terms are correlated because there is double counting as every take away is a give away by someone else.

 

I'm just trying to justify not caring about football anyway. :P



#7 Super Nomario


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 04:31 PM

I'm also told the error terms are correlated because there is double counting as every take away is a give away by someone else.

I'm just looking at offensive turnovers, not turnover differential, so I'm not double-counting here.



#8 Reverend


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:13 PM

I'm just looking at offensive turnovers, not turnover differential, so I'm not double-counting here.

 

 

I was talking about problems with the regression I posted, not impugning your analysis.



#9 j44thor

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 02:52 PM

What I would like to know is how a regression from their unsustainable turnover rate is likely going to affect the team performance in 2013.

Assuming they regress towards the mean both on offense and defense or perhaps stay just a bit above how many wins is that likely to cost them?






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