78 replies to this topic

[absintheofmalaise]

Matt Stucko of MiLB.com is reporting that Ryan Kalish needs another procedure that will cause him to miss ST. I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere else, but Marc Normandin at SBN is going with the story too. 

 

Now, nothing has been confirmed elsewhere yet, in terms of what it is Kalish needs surgery for (though, it's likely either his shoulder or neck, two problem areas that plagued him in 2012 as well), or just how long he is expected to be out. But, if he does indeed require surgery, and will miss time this spring, it lessens the chances of his contributing to the Red Sox in a meaningful way even further. His best shot at making the big-league club was a huge spring that overshadows Daniel Nava, and if he can't show up to play, that isn't going to happen. On top of that, he can't finish up an off-season of regular preparation and rest, and could be leapfrogged on the outfield depth chart by someone like Jackie Bradley or Bryce Brentz depending on the length of his absence.

 

[Rudy Pemberton]

Seems like just weeks ago that Kalish was reporting this was the first time in years that he had felt healthy. If this is true, than it seems like there's definitely a need for another outfielder, and this should put to rest the silly idea that he'd be backing up 1b too. 

 

This team seems really lacking in OF / 1B depth, to the extent that Daniel Nava seems like a lock to make the club.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 25 January 2013 - 03:49 PM.

[SoxScout]

"I'm ready to roll," he said, adding there was "no doubt" he'd be 100 percent for the first day of spring training -- something he couldn't boast last year.

Nov 29

 

He's also been out and about with the Red Sox winter caravan all this week.

 

bradfo: Source confirms @mlb_prospects report: Kalish is likely to have surgery and if does would be out of spring training if does

Edited by SoxScout, 25 January 2013 - 04:15 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I hear Lars Anderson is available.

[SoxLegacy]

FWIW, reading through the comments, Marc Normandin shares that he believes that surgery is not likely, that some physical therapy is the route to try instead. No mention of what the injury might be, though.

[The Gray Eagle]

A lot of prospects don't make it because of injuries-- not necessarily career-ending huge injuries, but the toll from several injuries that robs them of some of their ability, or the time they need to develop at the next level. Happens a lot with pitchers, but sometimes with positional players too.

 

If Kalish is really going under the knife and is going to miss a lot of spring training, then the Red Sox would be wise to not plan on getting anything out of him at the big league level this year. Maybe he'll come back strong, who knows? But I wouldn't bet on it at this point. No need at all to dump him or bench him in Pawtucket or anything like that, but there would be a need to make other plans for this year at least and bring in a LHH OF/1B.

 

Let Kalish try to come back in AAA and eventually play his way into the picture if he can, but don't count on it.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

A lot of prospects don't make it because of injuries-- not necessarily career-ending huge injuries, but the toll from several injuries that robs them of some of their ability, or the time they need to develop at the next level. Happens a lot with pitchers, but sometimes with positional players too.

 

If Kalish is really going under the knife and is going to miss a lot of spring training, then the Red Sox would be wise to not plan on getting anything out of him at the big league level this year. Maybe he'll come back strong, who knows? But I wouldn't bet on it at this point. No need at all to dump him or bench him in Pawtucket or anything like that, but there would be a need to make other plans for this year at least and bring in a LHH OF/1B.

 

Let Kalish try to come back in AAA and eventually play his way into the picture if he can, but don't count on it.

That was the plan last season, then injuries and set-backs put them in a position where they had to rush him to the big club before he was ready.  Hopefully they can stay healthy and productive enough to allow him to earn his way back this time around.

 

FWIW, Bradford is confirming the reports of the likelihood of surgery.

Source confirms @mlb_prospects report: Kalish is likely to have surgery and if does would be out of spring training if does

[SoxLegacy]

And another thing....this stinks for a variety of reasons, one of which is that I was quite hopeful that Kalish would be 100% good to go this year and would live up to his potential. Hopefully he bounces back and we can get to see him do well at some point.

[Corsi]

According to a major league source, Red Sox outfielder Ryan Kalish is likely to undergo surgery for an unspecified ailment, forcing the outfielder to miss spring training. The injury is not to Kalish’s neck, which was one of the issues he dealt with throughout the 2012 season.

http://fullcount.wee...pring-training/

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Based on the fact that people are only (so far) talking about him missing spring training, I tend to think it's not his shoulder, either - any shoulder procedure would have him out for at least four months, most likely. It's certainly possible that people are only talking about spring training so far and later we'll find out it's longer.

[Manramsclan]

Hamate bone possibly? Typical recovery time looks like about 6-8 weeks which would  fit with the missing spring training timeline.

[Rovin Romine]

I hear Lars Anderson is available.

 

While I know he is (and is said somewhat tongue in cheek), I thought I'd compare their numbers - as 22 year olds in 2010, they both split AA-AAA seasons and put up good numbers (Kalish more so than Lars, with Kalish obviously being the better overall talent). 

 

Since then Lars has stalled at AAA, while Kalish has been derailed by injuries and hasn't gotten the playing time he needs to develop.  Kalish has had about 80 games at all levels. 

 

They're the same baseball age for 2013 - 25 years old, but Lars is six calendar months younger.

 

If you could have either on your roster tomorrow, who would it be? 

Edited by Rovin Romine, 25 January 2013 - 04:56 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Was he injured while handing out Dunkin Donuts the other day at the Sox caravan? It just seems odd that there's no specifics on his injury.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

Maybe he got shot. I took a bullet out of a kid's shoulder with the scope last week.

Pretty sure I got $0 for that.

[terrynever]

Speaking of injury-prone athletes, Carl Pavano ruptured his spleen shoveling snow last week in Vermont.

[Vermonter At Large]

Was he using a cast-iron shovel? We've got two inches on the ground here, and that's in the snow drifts.

[SoxScout]

According to a major league source, Red Sox outfielder Ryan Kalish is likely to undergo surgery for a shoulder ailment, forcing the outfielder to miss spring training. The injury is to Kalish’s right (non-throwing) shoulder. He’s expected to have the procedure performed by Dr. Lewis Yocum next week. The procedure is expected to keep the 24-year-old out longer than his absence at the beginning of the 2012 season.

 

Kalish underwent two separate surgeries prior to the ’12 season, on both a bulging disk in his neck and a torn labrum in his left (throwing) shoulder — not the same shoulder on which he’ll have the operation next week.

 

 

http://fullcount.wee...pring-training/

Edited by SoxScout, 25 January 2013 - 08:22 PM.

[kartvelo]

If there were only some way that someone could have known he needed surgery six months ago.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

If there were only some way that someone could have known he needed surgery six months ago.

Oh, I get it, this is a dig at the Sox medical staff. Bravo!

Or he injured it in offseason training - regardless,it sucks.

[sittingstill]

He was in quite a lot of pain in September last year, identified at the time as right shoulder fatigue, probably brought on by the left shoulder (and neck) surgeries and recovery the previous offseason. I'm sure they expected that offseason rest and strengthening work would fix that. Maybe it didn't. He wasn't able to appear as scheduled at New Stars last weekend--reported as illness--but when I was choosing photos to print I had to scrap all the end of season ones since they so clearly showed a man in pain.

 

 

[Plympton91]

This club needs to perform exorcisms at both McCoy and Fenway. Seriously! Will this injury plague ever stop?

[Van Everyman]

@PeteAbe: MLB source: Kalish has a labrum injury. Extent of damage will determine how much he'll be able to play this season. Pain came when swinging

[Pearl Wilson]

Thanks ss that's some great evidence right there. Awesome job.

 

It sucks for Ryan and those who were hoping to see him but I have no doubt the team was planning for this contingency.

[pjheff]

I have no doubt the team was planning for this contingency.

I think that contingency planning has been one of the priorities of this offseason, one that was overlooked in recent years due to financial inflexibility. Kalish is simply unreliable at this point, and the last two seasons have been sunk when the team has had to depend upon unreliable players during important stretches, such as Kyle Weiland making meaningful September starts in 2011. This lack of reliability explains Cherington's decision to sign a competent professional like Victorino for RF, as well as Drew for Iglesias, Uehara for Bard, etc. Having seen the high cost of incompetence, Cherington seems comfortable paying a high price for competence on his ML roster.

edited to clean up the quotation

Edited by pjheff, 26 January 2013 - 08:16 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Sorry, but how can folks say that the team has been planning for this contingency?

 

With Kalish out, here's the depth chart at OF and 1B

 

OF: Ellsbury, Victorino, Gomes, Nava, Sweeney

1B: Napoli, Gomez

 

That doesn't look like much of a contingency to me (especially since there's nobody all that close in the minors at either of these spots). 

 

Sweeney (with a career line of 280 / 338 / 378) and Nava (243 / 352 / 379) now look like near locks to make the team as corner outfielders. They've got to find a way to turn some of their redundant assets into help at these positions, you just can't go into a season with an outfield so lacking in power, and depth.

[pjheff]

Sorry, but how can folks say that the team has been planning for this contingency?

Rather than relying on Kalish to start as a corner OFer, due to financial inflexibility, Cherington signed Victorino to play RF and Gomes to play LF. As a result, rather than scrambling to find a starter right now, Cherington is in the exact same position today that he was yesterday: searching for a LH bat on the bench that can back up both LF and 1B.

[bosockboy]

But he needs a starter in LF. Gomes starting against RHP can't happen. Ideally he's the bench/platoon guy.

[Trautwein's Degree]

But he needs a starter in LF. Gomes starting against RHP can't happen. Ideally he's the bench/platoon guy.

So many of the Sox problems the past two years can be attributed to failing to draft and develop players and bad luck (Ryan Westmoreland). Presently they have a lot of talent that is about two years away. But prior to those guys arriving, especially positional players, they haven't developed anyone who has contributed anything outside of Will Middlebrooks. The lack of depth in the upper levels of the minor leagues has resulted in AAAA guys getting way too much playing time.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The Red Sox have not failed to develop talent.  They chose to deal the talent they did develop away for big name players that didn't pan out.  By year, here are the players that have become major league players for either the Red Sox or the team they were traded to or are highly regarded prospects considered likely to do so soon.  (* means the player was traded)

 

2006: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson*, Josh Reddick*

 

2007: Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo*

 

2008: Casey Kelly*, Ryan Lavarnway

 

So of the seven players who have seen major league time or are about to, four were traded away and play positions that the Red Sox have had to fill this off season with reclamation projects or average but not exciting players.  If we had Masterson in the rotation and Kelly in AAA, Rizzo at first base and Reddick in right field, there would be a very different feeling about this team right now.

 

And here are the prospects who have panned out as having value as trade chips, have been kept and are considered decent bets to be major league players at some point or are getting mentions on top prospect lists right now.

 

2009: Poor draft year.  You could make an argument for Miles Head, but it would be a stretch.

 

2010: Bryce Brentz, Garin Cecchini

 

2011: Matt Barnes, Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley

 

Then there are international signings like Xander Bogaerts, Junichi Tazawa, Tzu-Wei Lin, Hideki Okajima, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jose Iglesias (you can argue that Okajima and Daisuke weren't developed, but even pulling them out of the list doesn't enforce your point).

 

Identifying talent from outside MLB and developing players has not been a problem for this franchise.  Trading away that talent for veterans in the middle of or approaching the back end of their primes has been a problem, and even that has been more of an issue with identifying the right veterans to spend prospects on.

 

If anything, I'd say the biggest problem has been scouting at the major league level.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 26 January 2013 - 12:39 PM.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Since 2008 the Red Sox farm system has produced Ryan Lavarnway. Thanks for making my point.

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 26 January 2013 - 01:04 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The lack of depth in the upper levels of the minor leagues has resulted in AAAA guys getting way too much playing time.

There's also the failure of the major league players they've had ahead of those AAAA guys to stay on the field consistently the last couple years as well.  As Snod said, the problem might be big league scouting as much as anything...or just bad luck.

 

Why did AAAA Daniel Nava get so much playing time last season?  Because the players the team was counting on to take most of the outfield at bats for the big club (Crawford, Ellsbury, Sweeney and Ross) all spent time, in some cases significant time on the DL.  Is that a developmental issue, a scouting issue, or a shit luck issue?

[Rudy Pemberton]

It's also a stretch to say they developed someone like Josh Reddick. If they expected him to do what he did last year, would they have traded him for a set up man? Corner outfield and first should theoretically be somewhat easy positions to fill, yet it seems quite likely that guys like Ryan Sweeney and Mauro Gomez will get lots of at bats this year.

[Van Everyman]

It's also a stretch to say they developed someone like Josh Reddick. If they expected him to do what he did last year, would they have traded him for a set up man?

It drives me nuts when people discuss the Bailey and Melancon deals as if they were the same deal or interchangeable. You don't get a closer for fungible guys. Reddick was highly valued.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Since 2008 the Red Sox farm system has produced Ryan Lavarnway. Thanks for making my point.

 

So your complaint is that the Red Sox farm system hasn't produced major league players who were able to go from drafted to major league rosters in three to three and a half years?  How many prospects move that quickly through the minors who aren't the truly elite generational talents like Alex Rodriguez?

 

And both Lavarnway and Casey should see time as major league players this year.  Just because a prospect was traded, that doesn't mean you discount their existence in the system as though it never happened.

 

I think your expectations for how quickly prospects develop may be a bit unrealistic.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 26 January 2013 - 02:43 PM.

[absintheofmalaise]

Since 2008 the Red Sox farm system has produced Ryan Lavarnway. Thanks for making my point.

What percentage of draft picks from the 2009 - 2011 drafts have made MLB rosters? You also need to take into account at what age the player was drafted at. Usually a HS player will take longer to develop than a college player will. According to this article on BPro, the average age of players making their MLB debut between 2005-2009 was a little over 24.4. The average position player had 2070 PAs before he was promoted. The average pitcher had 391 IPs before he was promoted. The Sox first round pick from the 2009 draft was part of the trade for Gonzalez. Unless you were an über prospect or a very good college player, the odds of you being on a MLB roster if you were drafted in 2009-2011 are very long.

[Rasputin]

But he needs a starter in LF. Gomes starting against RHP can't happen. Ideally he's the bench/platoon guy.

 

And Nava is the other half of the platoon, at least for now. I don't get what the problem is.

[mwonow]

And Nava is the other half of the platoon, at least for now. I don't get what the problem is.

You mean, aside from the Sox having a substantial role earmarked for Daniel Nava?

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It's tough for me to fault the Sox for the health problems with Kalish and Ryan Westmoreland. If those guys were around, there would be little hand wringing over the state of their mL production over the last few years. And while Reddick looked great, he still needs to put up a full season or two to make me regret moving him as much as some do.

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 26 January 2013 - 04:32 PM.

[Rasputin]

You mean, aside from the Sox having a substantial role earmarked for Daniel Nava?

 

The Daniel Nava that hits right handed pitchers had an OBP heavy .797 OPS last year. I'm perfectly fine with a guy with role player talents playing a role. Again, I don't see what the problem is.

[bosockboy]

 
The Daniel Nava that hits right handed pitchers had an OBP heavy .797 OPS last year. I'm perfectly fine with a guy with role player talents playing a role. Again, I don't see what the problem is.

I'll find the stats and post later because I'm working and on my phone....but his numbers were heavily weighted towards the early part of the season before the league adjusted to him. From July on or so he was dreadful even against RHP. I'll be very surprised if the Sox hand him the strong side of a platoon.

[Rasputin]

I'll find the stats and post later because I'm working and on my phone....but his numbers were heavily weighted towards the early part of the season before the league adjusted to him. From July on or so he was dreadful even against RHP. I'll be very surprised if the Sox hand him the strong side of a platoon.

 

And the fact that he was battling hand and wrist injuries from July on is irrelevant? How about the fact that he has a long minor league career where he has one skill that stands out--the ability to get on base.

 

I'm not suggesting that he's the best case option, but as a worst-healthy-case option, he's pretty good.

 

And the fact that the platoon itself is fairly easily replaceable means that come the deadline, there's an obvious spot to upgrade.

[maufman]

Kalish has a 262/328/406 career line in AAA and has appeared in just 224 games in the past 3 seasons. The Sox weren't counting on him for anything this season.

 

The story here is that Kalish's already slim chances of ever making an impact in Boston just got considerably slimmer. With only one option left, Kalish needs to show enough in Pawtucket this season to force himself into the club's 2014 plans. Now, it seems he's going to have to do that while playing catch-up.

[Rasputin]

Kalish has a 262/328/406 career line in AAA and has appeared in just 224 games in the past 3 seasons. The Sox weren't counting on him for anything this season.

 

The story here is that Kalish's already slim chances of ever making an impact in Boston just got considerably slimmer. With only one option left, Kalish needs to show enough in Pawtucket this season to force himself into the club's 2014 plans. Now, it seems he's going to have to do that while playing catch-up.

 

On the other hand, at the moment all he has to do is be better than Daniel Nava and it's entirely possible that an outfield position will open up at the trade deadline.

[Plympton91]

I'll find the stats and post later because I'm working and on my phone....but his numbers were heavily weighted towards the early part of the season before the league adjusted to him. From July on or so he was dreadful even against RHP. I'll be very surprised if the Sox hand him the strong side of a platoon.

 

 

And the fact that he was battling hand and wrist injuries from July on is irrelevant? How about the fact that he has a long minor league career where he has one skill that stands out--the ability to get on base.

 

I'm not suggesting that he's the best case option, but as a worst-healthy-case option, he's pretty good.

 

And the fact that the platoon itself is fairly easily replaceable means that come the deadline, there's an obvious spot to upgrade.

 

I am on both your sides here.  I don't think Nava's second half last season had anything to do with the league "catching up to him."  He also had a long stretch of success in 2010 before an injury and overexposure to lefthanded pitching dragged down his final numbers.  I think if you take his overall major league numbers against righthanders they reflect both the highs and lows, streaks and slumps of a typical baseball player.  That said, he's a small guy who in both attempts to play a full season with a significant amount of big league exposure, has gotten hurt at some point and and then worn down in September.  Starting the year with Nava is o.k.; expecting to finish the year with Nava is irresponsible.

 

In some sense, he and Sweeney are different players occupying the same role.  Sweeney will likely have a 30 point deficit in OPB, but Sweeney can play a much better RF and a passable CF whereas Nava is basically a LF.  I think ultimately, you want Nava at AAA for depth, and Sweeney as a fourth outfielder, with an everyday leftfielder of the caliber of Carl Crawford circa 2010.  Of course, that leaves a very limited role for Gomes.  Thus, I think, contrary to Maufman's leanings, that the Red Sox did have high hopes for Kalish turning into something resembling Nava with a deluxe power-speed upgrade package.  In which case, Kalish would them the positional flexibility of Sweeney, but with a starting outfielder's offense, allowing Gomes to be useful as a RH bat to spell Ellsbury as well as Kalish.  

Edited by Plympton91, 26 January 2013 - 09:00 PM.

[Rasputin]

I am on both your sides here.  I don't think Nava's second half last season had anything to do with the league "catching up to him."  He also had a long stretch of success in 2010 before an injury and overexposure to lefthanded pitching dragged down his final numbers.  I think if you take his overall major league numbers against righthanders they reflect both the highs and lows, streaks and slumps of a typical baseball player.  That said, he's a small guy who in both attempts to play a full season with a significant amount of big league exposure, has gotten hurt at some point and and then worn down in September.  Starting the year with Nava is o.k.; expecting to finish the year with Nava is irresponsible.

 

In some sense, he and Sweeney are different players occupying the same role.  Sweeney will likely have a 30 point deficit in OPB, but Sweeney can play a much better RF and a passable CF whereas Nava is basically a LF.  I think ultimately, you want Nava at AAA for depth, and Sweeney as a fourth outfielder, with an everyday leftfielder of the caliber of Carl Crawford circa 2010.  Of course, that leaves a very limited role for Gomes.  Thus, I think, contrary to Maufman's leanings, that the Red Sox did have high hopes for Kalish turning into something resembling Nava with a deluxe power-speed upgrade package.  In which case, Kalish would them the positional flexibility of Sweeney, but with a starting outfielder's offense, allowing Gomes to be useful as a RH bat to spell Ellsbury as well as Kalish.  

 

Remember the years when we had different opening day starters in right field for twelve years or so? Would it be much of a surprise if we had a stretch like that in left?

 

Ross, 2012

Crawford, 2011

Ellsbury, 2010

Bay, 2009

Ramirez, 2008

 

That's five, and we'll hit six this year unless something really weird happens and unless Kalish has a tremendous season once he's back, improving left will be one of the agenda items come the 2013-14 off season.

[Savin Hillbilly]

But he needs a starter in LF. Gomes starting against RHP can't happen. Ideally he's the bench/platoon guy.

 

Gomes doesn't actually hit RHP that badly. His career wRC+ vs. RHP is 93; last year it was 101. This is not a guy you have to hide from righthanded pitching; he's more or less a league-average hitter against righthanders.

 

True, his defense makes him a net liability when he's just a league-average hitter. To that extent you have a valid point. But I'd want to see how badly his glove plays in Fenway before I panic at the idea of him getting the majority of the LF starts. We need a solid LHH bench OF, but I don't think we need a straight platoon partner (i.e. a guy who will get 70% of the starts), and we certainly don't need "a starter."

[Plympton91]

 
Gomes doesn't actually hit RHP that badly. His career wRC+ vs. RHP is 93; last year it was 101. This is not a guy you have to hide from righthanded pitching; he's more or less a league-average hitter against righthanders.
 
True, his defense makes him a net liability when he's just a league-average hitter. To that extent you have a valid point. But I'd want to see how badly his glove plays in Fenway before I panic at the idea of him getting the majority of the LF starts. We need a solid LHH bench OF, but I don't think we need a straight platoon partner (i.e. a guy who will get 70% of the starts), and we certainly don't need "a starter."

Well, that depends on what you are aspiring to this season. If the goal is to finish in 4th place with around 82 wins, the Gomes getting 400+ at bats is fine. If you have higher aspirations, ...

Granted, a couple mediocre players is fine, but, outside of Ellsbury, Ortiz, and Pedroia, I'm seeing a whole lot of mediocrity. And, at least two of those players ended last season nursing serious injuries.

[TomRicardo]

Well, that depends on what you are aspiring to this season. If the goal is to finish in 4th place with around 82 wins, the Gomes getting 400+ at bats is fine. If you have higher aspirations, ...

Granted, a couple mediocre players is fine, but, outside of Ellsbury, Ortiz, and Pedroia, I'm seeing a whole lot of mediocrity. And, at least two of those players ended last season nursing serious injuries.

I would say Victorino and Middlebrooks are above mediocre.  

 

This is not team you would expect to be world beaters however this team is far less volatile than last year's team.  A wild card birth is not outlandish. 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

By no means. Winning 80 games or 90 really wouldn't surprise me either way with this team. I feel like it will be a season where my interest wanes until midpoint and then will be determined by their record stands at that point. Ill follow and watch, sure, but this team has equal odds of either being thoroughly boring or our new found equivalent of something like the Orioles last year - a team that probably shouldn't be as good as it is.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would say Victorino and Middlebrooks are above mediocre. 

 

So is Napoli as long as his hip holds out. Really the only positions where the word "mediocre" seems at all likely to apply are LF, SS and C, and in all three cases there's a fair-to-good chance we'll be better than that.