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2013 Trade Deadline News and Rumors


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#1 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 09:41 AM

A bit less than a month out from the trade deadline, and there are already a lot of rumors out there. Figured we could use a thread to keep the actual rumors and news separate from some of the speculation and suggestions going on in the other thread.

To start, Memphis and Cleveland have agreed to a deal:

http://espn.go.com/n...ade-sources-say

The Cavs get Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington, amd Josh Selby in exchange for Jon Leuer and a future undisclosed pick. Basically a cost cutting move on Memphis's part, and a smart way for Cleveland to use their cap space on an affordable young big man who will get to play a lot right away now that Verajao is out for the year. Pretty good deal for the Cavs.

Edit: It actually turns out that the pick goes to Cleveland. It's a top 5 protected pick in 2015.

Edited by Grin&MartyBarret, 22 January 2013 - 09:54 AM.


#2 Brickowski

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:03 AM

Pretty good deal for the Cavs.


Yes, except it doesn't work as first reported. Ellington was traded from the Cavs and cannot be reacquired by the Cavs this year. Speights and Selby would work if Speights agrees to the deal (he's a one-year Bird player).

So Memphis learned quickly that no one wanted Rudy Gay, and this deal was necessary to get under $74M.

Let me add that the Celtics could have offered Wilcox and his expring contract for Speights. Wilcox is slightly more expensive than Leuer but the C's could have made up the difference with cash. I like Speights, but maybe Ainge doesn't.

Edited by Brickowski, 22 January 2013 - 10:09 AM.


#3 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:07 AM

Yes, except it doesn't work as first reported. Ellington was traded from the Cavs and cannot be reacquired by the Cavs this year. Speights and Selby would work if Speights agrees to the deal (he's a one-year Bird player).

So Memphis learned quickly that no one wanted Rudy Gay, and this deal was necessary to get under $74M.


What am I missing? When was Ellington on the Cavs? He started his career in Minnesota and was traded to Memphis for Cunningham. Was he on Cleveland's roster at some point and didn't play a game?

#4 Brickowski

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:15 AM

What am I missing? When was Ellington on the Cavs? He started his career in Minnesota and was traded to Memphis for Cunningham. Was he on Cleveland's roster at some point and didn't play a game?


When you plug the original trade into the RealGM trade checker, it reports: "Wayne Ellington from Memphis Grizzlies

Ellington was recently traded from Cleveland and cannot be re-acquired by the Cavaliers this season. As a result this trade cannot continue."

But if you plug in Ellington straight up for Speights, it works. So I think you are right, and the RealGM checker is FUBAR,

#5 JohnnyTheBone

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:24 AM

Memphis plans on signing the inimitable Delonte West with one of their freed-up roster spots.

Edited by JohnnyTheBone, 22 January 2013 - 10:26 AM.


#6 bbc23

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:40 AM

Memphis plans on signing the inimitable Delonte West with one of their freed-up roster spots.

I've also heard that they plan on bringing in Sasha "the artist formerly known as Maria Sharapova's husband" Vujacic

#7 RedOctober3829


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Posted 22 January 2013 - 11:22 AM

I've also heard that they plan on bringing in Sasha "the artist formerly known as Maria Sharapova's husband" Vujacic


In addition to Sasha and Delonte West, they are also reportedly bringing in former Celtic and Knick Bill Walker.

#8 The Legendary WOTR

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 02:36 PM

Miguel Angel Paniagua: Rumor with some legs from Charlotte: Bobcats could be considering a trade package of DeSagana Diop, Ben Gordon and a draft pick for Pau Gasol. Twitter @pantxopaniagua

1h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
@Cutch30 @pimpseatkfc Players can waive no-trade clause if they want out of a situation bad enough. Clause or not, I don't see KG leaving.

2h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
“@_APIII: Doc looks fed up, if this doesn't turn around do you think he walks away?” I don't think he will. Things will get better IMO.

2h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
“@boceltics18: @SherrodbCSN you know it all. Would the C's trade Sully?” Unlikely. Would have to be part of bigger pkg.

2h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
“@pimpseatkfc: @SherrodbCSN What about a major trade? Like shipping off Rondo or KG?” Possible, but unlikely.

2h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
“@JeffFullerWDeV: @SherrodbCSN C's just hoping to flip the switch like last year? #Doubtful” We call that #reallybadidea

2h A. Sherrod Blakely ‏@SherrodbCSN
“@MaroTumada: @SherrodbCSN is trade going to happen at celtics?” If the #Celtics don't shape up and play better, I expect moves to be made.

#9 The Legendary WOTR

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 02:41 PM

http://bostonherald....oon_big_changes


It's not a huge secret that Celtics president Danny Ainge and his staff have been kicking the tires on their options for most of the past month. The Celtics have always been aggressive about shopping the marketplace, but despite rampant speculation that Boston might move one of its core pieces like say a Paul Pierce, Celtics sources say that unless it returned a bona fide All-Star of Pierce’s stature in return moving him was not in the cards.

The Celtic chips most teams are talking about are guards Courtney Lee ($5 million), forward Jeff Green ($8.35 million) and forward Brandon Bass ($6 million). None of them are overly impressive in a trade on their own; however, any combination of them could get a salary high enough for a more significant deal. The problem is the reason the Celtics want to move them is they have been underwhelming this season and that’s really driven down their trade value.

#10 The Legendary WOTR

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:37 PM

The Boston Celtics have "ramped up" their interest level in J.J. Redick.


It was reported last week that the Celtics expressed strong interest
in the Orlando Magic guard, who's having a career season, averaging
almost 15 points and 4.4 assists.


Shooting from the two-guard spot has been a void for the Celtics throughout the season.




#11 Nick Kaufman


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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:41 PM

Yeah, that trade makes sense and it shouldn't cost a lot.



#12 The Legendary WOTR

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:52 PM

Hmmm, the Magic aren't exactly going to give him away to the Celtics.

If it's a straight up deal, something like Lee, Melo & 1st.

He's playing very well.

 

If it's a multi-team deal, might the Celtics deal Rondo and go with a

Bradley - Redick backcourt, since Redick is averaging 4.4 A/G,

so you might be able  to  get by with that type of backcourt, if the

Celtics can use Rondo to acquire a big man who can also create?



#13 Nick Kaufman


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Posted 25 January 2013 - 02:00 PM

His contract is expiring this year and the magic will trade him if they can't sign him, that's why he ll come relatively cheap.



#14 dolomite133


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Posted 25 January 2013 - 02:52 PM

Hmmm, the Magic aren't exactly going to give him away to the Celtics.

If it's a straight up deal, something like Lee, Melo & 1st.

He's playing very well.

 

If it's a multi-team deal, might the Celtics deal Rondo and go with a

Bradley - Redick backcourt, since Redick is averaging 4.4 A/G,

so you might be able  to  get by with that type of backcourt, if the

Celtics can use Rondo to acquire a big man who can also create?

I highly doubt we part with a first round pick in a deal for JJ friggin' Redick. Second round pick makes far more sense here.



#15 Brickowski

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 03:00 PM

Orlando has plenty of space under $74M to give Reddick a deal at fair market value without paying any luxury tax.  The Magic's payroll is $74M next year, but $22M of that is amnesty money.  The year after that, their committed salaries are only $23M.  They may have a profitability issue, but they don't have a tax issue.

 

The Celtics do have a tax issue.  If Reddick receives an extension from  Boston, Pierce is almost certainly a goner.



#16 The Legendary WOTR

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 05:18 PM

Tony
Have you heard any rumors out there about who the celtics are targeting for big men?

Larry Coon
I heard Gortat, but I haven’t really discussed it with anyone who has a finger on the Celtics’ pulse. I heard the Celtics and Suns had discussions, but the Suns were asking for too much.



#17 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:32 PM

Memphis and Toronto are very close to closing a Rudy Gay deal. 

 

The deal sends Gay and Hamed Haddadi to Toronto and Jose Calderon and Ed Davis to Memphis. 

 

At this point, Memphis is now looking for a team to take Calderon, but may pull the trigger even if they can't find once since Calderon expires. Rumor is that Detroit is interested in Calderon, as is Dallas, and that Memphis is looking for a SF in return. From Detroit it could be either Prince or Maggette, while Memphis is asking for Vince Carter from Dallas. 



#18 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:37 PM

Sam Amick is reporting that Boston is also in the mix for Calderon, but playing around with the trade machine it's hard to see how it would work unless Memphis is willing to take a decent chunk of salary back. 



#19 SoxScout


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:47 PM

It's not known what players the Pistons, Celtics or Mavericks are making available, but Detroit has options to replace Gay (Tayshaun Prince Corey Maggette) and Boston small forward Paul Pierce (who has just $4 million of his $15.3 million guaranteed on the final year of his contract in 2013-14) would be a natural fit as a cheaper, yet equally productive, replacement for Gay.

http://www.usatoday....lderon/1878417/



#20 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 05:52 PM

I would hope Danny Ainge knows better than to move Pierce for a half season Rondo replacement. 

 

Or rather, I should say, Sam Amick should know better than to float that idea. 



#21 ifmanis5


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:01 PM

I would hope Danny Ainge knows better than to move Pierce for a half season Rondo replacement. 

 

Or rather, I should say, Sam Amick should know better than to float that idea. 

I'm fine with moving Pierce if they can also dump Bass and/or Terry.



#22 swingin val

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:04 PM

Memphis is looking at Vince Carter, Corey Maggette and Tayshaun Prince.

 

If that is the caliber player they are trading Calderon for, there is zero chance Paul Pierce is going their way. There is also zero chance that Jeff Green is going their way because of his 4 year deal (and because Hollinger thinks he is terrible)



#23 Brickowski

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:17 PM

If the deal goes down as Grin&MartyBarret described, that is just terrible for Toronto.  One would think that Orlando, just to name one team, might give something better for Calderon to avoid luxury tax,


Edited by Brickowski, 30 January 2013 - 06:20 PM.


#24 bbc23

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:19 PM

 Ed Davis just did his goodbye hugs. Looks like a done deal to me

https://twitter.com/WolstatSun/status/296757363623489536
link to tweet

 

Rudy Gay to Toronto. Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye to Memphis. Jose Calderon to Detroit. Story:

https://twitter.com/AlexKennedyNBA/status/296759324213125120
link to tweet



#25 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:49 PM

Memphis just made Colangelo their bitch. Really bad deal for Toronto.

#26 Nick Kaufman


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:52 PM

Wasnt it here i read that colangelo was really interested in making the playoffs this year because his job was on the line?

#27 knucklecup


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 07:57 PM

Memphis just made Colangelo their bitch. Really bad deal for Toronto.

Why?

They haven't been able to trade Calderon for 2-3 years now. His value is net negative. They gave up Ed Davis for a better player in Gay that they never would have attracted on the FA market.

Edited by knucklecup, 30 January 2013 - 07:59 PM.


#28 Nomar813


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:09 PM

The Raptors have cornered the market on swingmen who can't shoot from beyond 18 feet.  They'll be a better team despite the ugly contract, but they're going to have spacing issues with DeRozan and Gay playing together and Bargnani out.  The trouble is that this is the way the Raptors have to acquire established talent because it's tough to lure quality free agents to Toronto.



#29 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:31 PM

Why?

They haven't been able to trade Calderon for 2-3 years now. His value is net negative. They gave up Ed Davis for a better player in Gay that they never would have attracted on the FA market.

Calderon has the highest PER of any player in the deal. To say he's a net negative isn't really accurate. Davis has the second highest PER in the deal. He's a young guy, solid rebounder and defender, and is cheap. Not a star, but a guy who can contribute to a playoff team.

Meanwhile Gay is third in PER at 14.3, which makes him a slightly below average player on a long max contract. He is an inefficient scorer, a poor shooter, and only a decent defender. Next to Amare, and maybe Joe Johnson, he has the worst max contract in the league. He's just not that good.

Edit: Not to mention that Toronto just used a lottery pick on a SF, re-signed DeRozen for pretty big money, and paid Landry Fields way too much, too.

Edited by Grin&MartyBarret, 30 January 2013 - 08:35 PM.


#30 knucklecup


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:37 PM

Calderon has the highest PER of any player in the deal. To say he's a net negative isn't really accurate. Davis has the second highest PER in the deal. He's a young guy, solid rebounder and defender, and is cheap. Not a star, but a guy who can contribute to a playoff team.

Meanwhile Gay is third in PER at 14.3, which makes him a slightly below average player on a long max contract. He is an inefficient scorer, a poor shooter, and only a decent defender. Next to Amare, and maybe Joe Johnson, he has the worst max contract in the league. He's just not that good.


It is absolutely accurate. They haven't been able to swap bad contracts and rid themselves of Calderon for three years now.

I think I'm beginning to see why we have such colossally differing viewpoints when it comes to players trade value... You rely solely on PER and in my opinion, PER is essentially meaningless and irrelevant.

#31 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:41 PM

It is absolutely accurate. They haven't been able to swap bad contracts and rid themselves of Calderon for three years now.

I think I'm beginning to see why we have such colossally differing viewpoints when it comes to players trade value... You rely solely on PER and in my opinion, PER is essentially meaningless and irrelevant.



I don't rely solely on PER, but it is a quick, easy way to differentiate players without going in depth.

But, I'll bite. Use stats that aren't "meaningless and irrelevant" to explain how Rudy Gay is good and Jose Calderon has been bad this year.

#32 nighthob

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:42 PM

Yeah, I can't see any way that Memphis didn't come up aces in this deal. They unloaded a cancer on a max deal, and now their offense will flow though the 1/4/5 the way it should. They replaced Gay with a vet swing forward that can play defense and shoot and grabbed themselves a useful forward to help them get more rest for Gasol & Randolph. I have no idea how the Raptors are going to work with Gay/DeRozan/Lowry and only one basketball.



#33 mcpickl

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:52 PM

It is absolutely accurate. They haven't been able to swap bad contracts and rid themselves of Calderon for three years now.

I think I'm beginning to see why we have such colossally differing viewpoints when it comes to players trade value... You rely solely on PER and in my opinion, PER is essentially meaningless and irrelevant.

 

Well, pretty obvious why Toronto was able to move Calderon now, and not years ago yeah? He's in the final year of his deal. That made him so much more attractive that two teams were willing to take him. If Calderon had three years left, and Gay only one, it's a great deal for Toronto. Unfortunately for them, it's not.

 

Great trade for Memphis. I think they got the better players, and saved about 25 million in committed salaries. Slam dunk win for them. Hollinger is kicking some ass down there.



#34 DannyDarwinism

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 09:31 PM

Yeah, I can't see any way that Memphis didn't come up aces in this deal. They unloaded a cancer on a max deal, and now their offense will flow though the 1/4/5 the way it should. They replaced Gay with a vet swing forward that can play defense and shoot and grabbed themselves a useful forward to help them get more rest for Gasol & Randolph. I have no idea how the Raptors are going to work with Gay/DeRozan/Lowry and only one basketball.

 

Hey, don't forget Bargnani, he should be back this week and he shoots more than any of those guys.  So they got rid of their best rebounder and best passer for a max contract Rudy Gay after drafting Terrance Ross and signing DeMar Derozan to a (too) big contract.  I have no idea what Colangelo is doing with that roster, other than hamstringing his successor.  



#35 BigSoxFan


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Posted 30 January 2013 - 09:39 PM

Yeah, Gay and DeRozan will have some exciting alley oops and stuff but I really don't see them meshing well. Memphis' perimeter defense should be quite good with Allen/Prince on the wings.

#36 knucklecup


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:37 AM

I don't rely solely on PER, but it is a quick, easy way to differentiate players without going in depth.

But, I'll bite. Use stats that aren't "meaningless and irrelevant" to explain how Rudy Gay is good and Jose Calderon has been bad this year.

 

That lack of depth contributes to the flatly wrong perception that Brandan Wright is the 19th most efficient player in the NBA this season.  Furthermore, Andray Blatche is the 15th most efficient player in the game, Javale McGee at 17, Nate Robinson the best player on the Bulls... the list goes on and on.

 

It's an incredibly flawed statistic.  There are way too many variables in a basketball game to mathematically compute one tell all/end all statistic that grades the best players to the worst.

 

Not every point is created equal.  Steals can be subjective.  Assists are based on the talent and skill level of your teammates / whether or not the player you choose to pass the ball to makes the shot they take.

 

A players situation also plays an integral role in the production he will have.  Because he only plays 25 minutes and so much weight is put into what you do in a short amount of time, you can expect Manu Ginobli to be ranked high in these rankings annually, which is true.  He's a great player and deserves to be ranked there but he's probably a bit overrated by this metric based on the role he's played as a sixth man over the course of his career.

 

Another example being Andray Blatche this season who is a "Bona fide All-Star" according to Hollinger's rankings - due in large part to the fact that he plays 19 minutes on a below average bench that allows him to score around the rim (high percentage shots) and be the primary rebounder.

 

I just don't buy into that statistic at all.  ESPN did the same thing with Total QBR.

 

With that said, I like Jose Calderon as a player.  A lot actually.  So much so that I would be comfortable starting him on a Championship caliber roster with the right supporting cast - and I don't just mean distributing to Bosh, James, and Wade.as the point guard in Miami.  He's a good player but there's also a reason why he was available for essentially nothing the last couple of seasons and nobody bit until he became an asset in and of itself as an expiring contract.

 

I've always been a Rudy Gay apologist so perhaps I'm slightly bias in this instance but I think it's a good get for Toronto.  He's better than DeRozan and as a team so far away from being Championship contenders who would never be able to draw a player as talented as Gay via free agency, I think it's in your best interest to acquire pieces and he is certainly one.  For example, I think he's a superior number two option to Rose than Luol Deng is. 

 

I do not know what Colangelo is trying to build in Toronto or if he's even a part of the long term plans but they have a piece to the puzzle, DeRozan who is a tradeable commodity, Bargnani who will likely be moved before the 21st of February, etc.

 

With that said, he will always be a schmuck for signing John Lucas 3 to a multiyear deal.



#37 knucklecup


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:47 AM

Yeah, Gay and DeRozan will have some exciting alley oops and stuff but I really don't see them meshing well. Memphis' perimeter defense should be quite good with Allen/Prince on the wings.

 

I agree with this.

 

Prince isn't a "PER" type of pick up for Hollinger.  This was purely a way to avoid the luxury tax while remaining competitive.  Prince is a savvy veteran who's won Championships before and is still only 32 years old.  He's always been one of my acquisitions in video games if I start my franchise with a bad contract.  I think he's got something left in the tank if motivated and playing for a good team.

 

Not to mention, how many potential options did the Grizzlies have?  Play around with the trade machine and there are probably like ten total directions that Memphis could have gone in... Terry and Bass being one of them.

 

Also, I don't see DeRozan and Gay as coexisting either.  Just something about there games.  If they were smart, they would use the perception about him around the league to their advantage and trade him for another player.



#38 knucklecup


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:49 AM

Hey, don't forget Bargnani, he should be back this week and he shoots more than any of those guys.  So they got rid of their best rebounder and best passer for a max contract Rudy Gay after drafting Terrance Ross and signing DeMar Derozan to a (too) big contract.  I have no idea what Colangelo is doing with that roster, other than hamstringing his successor.  

 

Does it really matter when you're that far away from contention?  Plus, you would have to assume they're not done making moves yet.



#39 nighthob

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:50 AM

I  don't see DeRozan and Gay as coexisting either.  Just something about there games.  If they were smart, they would use the perception about him around the league to their advantage and trade him for another player.

 

It's because they're both black holes that can't shoot past 16'-18'. I guess you can live with that in a PF, not in a perimeter scorer, though. Between them they average about 32 FGA/g and they don't shoot them well. It's going to be a mess. Also, way back in Memphis Lowry & Gay were two of the Three Amigos that did so much to poison that locker room (Warrick was the third), which is why the Grizz disposed of the other two. Unfortunately Rudy still kept shooting away, despite being the fourth best offensive player on his team. So the Grizz are absolutely better for having Ed Davis to back up Randolph & Gasol and Prince to provide them with the two things they need at the three, defense and long range shooting.



#40 knucklecup


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:02 AM

 
It's because they're both black holes that can't shoot past 16'-18'. I guess you can live with that in a PF, not in a perimeter scorer, though. Between them they average about 32 FGA/g and they don't shoot them well. It's going to be a mess. Also, way back in Memphis Lowry & Gay were two of the Three Amigos that did so much to poison that locker room (Warrick was the third), which is why the Grizz disposed of the other two. Unfortunately Rudy still kept shooting away, despite being the fourth best offensive player on his team. So the Grizz are absolutely better for having Ed Davis to back up Randolph & Gasol and Prince to provide them with the two things they need at the three, defense and long range shooting.


Tayshaun Prince had been arguably the worst forward in basketball over the last couple of seasons.

Lets not get crazy now.

Gay was a cancer? Provide some evidence please.

If he's cancer, Zach Randolph is aids.

#41 nighthob

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 08:57 AM

Tayshaun Prince had been arguably the worst forward in basketball over the last couple of seasons.
Lets not get crazy now.
Gay was a cancer? Provide some evidence please.
If he's cancer, Zach Randolph is aids.


Randolph's career in Portland has nothing to do with the player he's been in Memphis. He is far and away their best player. You may want to take a glance at the Grizzlies full team stats, and see which of their players has the highest usage rate. And notice that that player is actually their fourth best offensive player. And then you might come to understand the whole concept of addition by subtraction.

Edited by nighthob, 31 January 2013 - 08:57 AM.


#42 Grin&MartyBarret

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 11:21 AM

That lack of depth contributes to the flatly wrong perception that Brandan Wright is the 19th most efficient player in the NBA this season.  Furthermore, Andray Blatche is the 15th most efficient player in the game, Javale McGee at 17, Nate Robinson the best player on the Bulls... the list goes on and on.

 

It's an incredibly flawed statistic.  There are way too many variables in a basketball game to mathematically compute one tell all/end all statistic that grades the best players to the worst.

 

Not every point is created equal.  Steals can be subjective.  Assists are based on the talent and skill level of your teammates / whether or not the player you choose to pass the ball to makes the shot they take.

 

A players situation also plays an integral role in the production he will have.  Because he only plays 25 minutes and so much weight is put into what you do in a short amount of time, you can expect Manu Ginobli to be ranked high in these rankings annually, which is true.  He's a great player and deserves to be ranked there but he's probably a bit overrated by this metric based on the role he's played as a sixth man over the course of his career.

 

Another example being Andray Blatche this season who is a "Bona fide All-Star" according to Hollinger's rankings - due in large part to the fact that he plays 19 minutes on a below average bench that allows him to score around the rim (high percentage shots) and be the primary rebounder.

 

I just don't buy into that statistic at all.  ESPN did the same thing with Total QBR.

 

With that said, I like Jose Calderon as a player.  A lot actually.  So much so that I would be comfortable starting him on a Championship caliber roster with the right supporting cast - and I don't just mean distributing to Bosh, James, and Wade.as the point guard in Miami.  He's a good player but there's also a reason why he was available for essentially nothing the last couple of seasons and nobody bit until he became an asset in and of itself as an expiring contract.

 

I've always been a Rudy Gay apologist so perhaps I'm slightly bias in this instance but I think it's a good get for Toronto.  He's better than DeRozan and as a team so far away from being Championship contenders who would never be able to draw a player as talented as Gay via free agency, I think it's in your best interest to acquire pieces and he is certainly one.  For example, I think he's a superior number two option to Rose than Luol Deng is. 

 

I do not know what Colangelo is trying to build in Toronto or if he's even a part of the long term plans but they have a piece to the puzzle, DeRozan who is a tradeable commodity, Bargnani who will likely be moved before the 21st of February, etc.

 

With that said, he will always be a schmuck for signing John Lucas 3 to a multiyear deal.

 

 

First, this post is the definition of a straw man. I cited PER in my explanation as to why this trade is bad for Toronto, and instead of making an effort to explain why you think PER is "meaningless and irrelevant" in the cases of the players we're currently discussing, you bring up Brandon Wright, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, and Nate Robinson. I agree that PER has its flaws and I've never stated otherwise. But I disagree that it's a useless tool. Frankly, I just think you're interpreting it wrong. It's not a metric that's designed to grade the best players to the worst. It's an offense-only metric that is designed to measure per minute efficiency. In cases like Andray Blatche you're perfectly right that PER can be artificially inflated and misleading due to a variety of factors, but in a case like Rudy Gay, a guy who's playing 35+ minutes per game it can tell you a lot about his productivity. 

 

And Rudy Gay's productivity has been slightly below league average at his position this season, as his PER suggests. But since you hate PER so much, I'll use other statistics to illustrate how bad he's been. 

 

Gay's True Shooting Percentage is 48% which aligns him with sharpshooters like Josh Smith, Evan Turner, and Alonzo Gee and makes him a less efficient scorer than the guy you think he's better than (Loul Deng) and "arguably the worst forward in basketball over the last couple of years" in Tayshaun Prince. His assist rate is 5th worst among 3's who play 25+ minutes/game, he's a middle of the pack rebounder, ranks below "arguably the worst forward in basketball" Tayshaun Prince in win shares, and also trails guys like Martell Webster and Matt Barnes. Among 3's who play 25+ minutes, he takes more long 2s than all but 5 players despite the fact that he shoots 35% on those shots. He's taken 112 3's this season despite an eFG% of 45.6% on those shots. Of SF's who have 70+ attempts from 3, the only one he shoots a better percentage than is Andrei Kirilenko. And while it's possible to be a bad shooter from the field and still score efficiently if you can get to the free throw line at a high rate, Gay doesn't. He gets to the line at the same frequency as Kyle Singler, and is in the bottom half of the league's 3's in that category. And despite all of this, he used 25% of Memphis's offensive possessions. 

 

On defense, he's decent, and his defensive win share numbers have been encouraging, though it's a very safe bet that those numbers will decline significantly when he doesn't have Marc Gasol behind him and Tony Allen next to him to guard the other team's best perimeter scorer and provide help in the lane.  

 

Meanwhile, Toronto just gave too much money to a wing scorer in DeRozan whose ts%, win shares, and free throw rate are all better than Gay's this year. Do I think DeRozan is better than Gay? No, probably not. But the mere fact that you can make a compelling argument that he might be tells you all you need to know about the contract Colangelo just traded for. 

 

As for your point about Toronto being unable to attract a player of Gay's caliber in free agency, I've got to disagree, mainly because he hasn't been a particularly high caliber of player. There's plenty of better SF's that would be more than willing to sign in Toronto for far less than Rudy Gay is being paid. 


Edited by Grin&MartyBarret, 31 January 2013 - 11:22 AM.


#43 CreightonGubanich

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 11:33 AM

I think Memphis did pretty well for themselves, although it's worth considering if they could have just done this deal initially to get under the tax without costing themselves a first round pick in the Speights/Ellington deal. As for Toronto...it's a Hail Mary. They failed to acquire their cornerstone through the draft with the Bargnani pick, and they certainly aren't a free agent destination. The biggest thing they gave up is max-contract cap space in 2014, which they essentially spent on Gay. But would anyone sign there anyway? In the meantime, they become mildly interesting. Can Lowry, a talented but frustrating point guard, take off now that the Calderon leash is off? Can Gay become Carmelo-lite without two big guys clogging the lane? I don't think so, but I can see why Toronto took a shot.

 

Edit: and yes, the DeRozan extension is horrible, but it was horrible before this deal. I don't think he's a starting 2  or 3 in the NBA.


Edited by CreightonGubanich, 31 January 2013 - 11:34 AM.


#44 nighthob

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 11:58 AM

I think Memphis did pretty well for themselves, although it's worth considering if they could have just done this deal initially to get under the tax without costing themselves a first round pick in the Speights/Ellington deal. As for Toronto...it's a Hail Mary. They failed to acquire their cornerstone through the draft with the Bargnani pick, and they certainly aren't a free agent destination. The biggest thing they gave up is max-contract cap space in 2014, which they essentially spent on Gay. But would anyone sign there anyway? In the meantime, they become mildly interesting. Can Lowry, a talented but frustrating point guard, take off now that the Calderon leash is off? Can Gay become Carmelo-lite without two big guys clogging the lane? I don't think so, but I can see why Toronto took a shot.

 

Edit: and yes, the DeRozan extension is horrible, but it was horrible before this deal. I don't think he's a starting 2  or 3 in the NBA.

 

Gay has never been a drive to the basket player, so even if Randolph were a "clog the middle" player (and he isn't) it wouldn't have the least impact on Gay's game, as 75%-80% of his shots are jumpers, and mostly in the 10'-20' range. And that, in a nutshell, is the problem. His only skill is, literally, the least valuable basketball skill in a perimeter player (that is a jumpshooter that can't extend his range to the trey).

 

Gay's game would be acceptable if he were a PF. But as a wing man it's hugely inefficient. You could even live with it if he were like Tony Allen, who understands his limitations and focuses on defense and only taking the shots that come to him from the flow of the offense. But Gay's a shootist and demands to fire up bad jumper after bad jumper. And this is why he had to go. On a team with three better offensive players 1/4 possessions was ending with Rudy Gay firing up another shot. There's a very good reason the team plays its best ball without him.



#45 BigSoxFan


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:24 PM

DeRozan is only 23 and is averaging 17.4 ppg on 44% shooting. I think he's certainly a capable starter in the NBA. The problem is that he's not a very efficient scorer and isn't a threat from 3pt land. I wouldn't be psyched about paying him $10 million / year but that's pretty much the only way Toronto can keep its talent.



#46 CreightonGubanich

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:25 PM

Gay has never been a drive to the basket player, so even if Randolph were a "clog the middle" player (and he isn't) it wouldn't have the least impact on Gay's game, as 75%-80% of his shots are jumpers, and mostly in the 10'-20' range. And that, in a nutshell, is the problem. His only skill is, literally, the least valuable basketball skill in a perimeter player (that is a jumpshooter that can't extend his range to the trey).

 

Gay's game would be acceptable if he were a PF. But as a wing man it's hugely inefficient. You could even live with it if he were like Tony Allen, who understands his limitations and focuses on defense and only taking the shots that come to him from the flow of the offense. But Gay's a shootist and demands to fire up bad jumper after bad jumper. And this is why he had to go. On a team with three better offensive players 1/4 possessions was ending with Rudy Gay firing up another shot. There's a very good reason the team plays its best ball without him.

 

We agree on Gay, but Randolph and Gasol are both primary post players. They're not dragging a defender past 15 feet from the rim. You don't think this is a bad fit with a guy like Gay, who takes too many midrange jumpers and doesn't really have three point range? You don't think part of the reason Gay hasn't gone to the rim more might be the two post players and their defenders in front of him? 

I'm not discounting Gay's laziness and poor shot selection in the least. I do think though, that Toronto's a better fit for him.



#47 The Social Chair

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:44 PM

Woj throwing shots at Hollinger

 

http://sports.yahoo....-065716242.html

Wallace had nothing to do with the trade. Nothing. He isn't making calls to teams. He isn't consulted by the new regime. He's waiting until they agree on the terms of his inevitable parting. So, Pera and new CEO Jason Levien take an unpopular trade and assign it to Wallace in the news release.

Levien is making these deals based largely on the recommendations of John Hollinger, a statistician who worked for a cable sports company. The San Antonio Spurs once used him as a consultant and regretfully took his advice to sign a free agent named Jackie Butler. It was such a disaster, the Spurs had to attach Luis Scola to a trade to get Butler out of town.

 

 

He also works in the Lebron Back to Cleveland angle in here because it's not a Woj column without Lebron in it.



#48 nighthob

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:49 PM

We agree on Gay, but Randolph and Gasol are both primary post players. They're not dragging a defender past 15 feet from the rim. You don't think this is a bad fit with a guy like Gay, who takes too many midrange jumpers and doesn't really have three point range? You don't think part of the reason Gay hasn't gone to the rim more might be the two post players and their defenders in front of him? 

I'm not discounting Gay's laziness and poor shot selection in the least. I do think though, that Toronto's a better fit for him.

 

I'm not arguing on Gasol, but Randolph is actually a pretty good shooter in the mid ranges. Around half his shots are jumpers and he shoots them around .395, which, again, you can live with in a PF. But even a lot of his shots inside the paint don't start on the blocks, and start with him using his face up game to take his man off the dribble to create space for a close shot. So he doesn't clog the lane for Gay, and honestly even if he were setting up on the blocks it wouldn't be the case.

 

And the reason is that Rudy Gay isn't a penetration guy. He's a jumpshooter. And he's always been a jumpshooter. Even before Randolph showed up he was a jumpshooter. And between 70%-80% of his shots are jumpers every year. This year he's shooting them at around a .400 clip, and that's including the threes. Again, if he weren't a shootist, or if he were a PF, you could live with that offensive game. Just not in a perimeter guy. And, honestly, there isn't a fit for him until he learns to stop being Rudy Gay. 



#49 TheGazelle

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM

Woj throwing shots at Hollinger
 
http://sports.yahoo....-065716242.html
 
 
He also works in the Lebron Back to Cleveland angle in here because it's not a Woj column without Lebron in it.


Even for Woj, that article has a lot of cheap shots. The Grizzlies are better now than they were yesterday. Any shot Rudy Gay takes is one less for Gasol/Randolph, which is a net negative. I think they're still a shooter short, though.

Edited by TheGazelle, 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM.


#50 Nick Kaufman


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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:06 PM

Yeah, that was quite the hatchet job. But basically it was an article that channeled the hopes and machinations of Lebron's pal and the disgruntlement of Chris Wallace.






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