52 replies to this topic

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Here's a separate thread for talk regarding our salary cap situation and options. With Miguel's Salary Cap page no longer being regularly updated, all numbers come from the (surprisingly good) NY Jets Cap, which is now keeping tabs on the salary caps of the entire AFC East.

The 2013 cap is likely to be around $121 million and the Patriots have an estimated carryover from 2012 of $5.6 million. We also have about $4.1 million in dead money (thanks Jonathan Fanene!), so all told we are looking at around $18-21 million in cap space depending who you ask. The big free agent decisions are clearly Welker, Talib, and Vollmer, but there are also secondary free agents such as Woodhead, Edelman, and Arrington to consider, as well as the draft picks to sign. Cut candidates are relatively insignificant, but we can probably gain at least $1M from getting rid of Fells. We could also create some more cap space by turning part of the 2013 salaries of Brady ($9.7M), Wilfork ($6.5), or Mankins ($5.7) into bonus.

A couple general thoughts:

1. This team is really built to win over the next two years and then will potentially see some big cap relief after 2014. Who knows what happens with Brady after 2014 but his number is huge and moving in another direction at that point would drastically change our cap situation. We could also gain $7M in relief by cutting Mankins after 2014 and $8M by cutting Wilfork.

2. We have a lot of flexibility about how to proceed this offseason. If we want to keep the band together, resigning at least two if not three of Talib/Welker/Vollmer, then we will either need to structure those contracts to minimize the cap damage until 2015 or restructure Brady/Mankins/Wilfork. I think in any case applying the franchise tag (to whoever of the three FAs) may be hard, because that is a guaranteed $10-11M cap charge for next year.

3. Another factor is that we have very few free agents after the 2014 season. As far as I can tell, Spikes is the only 2014 FA of note and I think he's pretty replaceable. We actually have 35 players under contract through 2014, which is a pretty big number, especially given that you figure that we will add maybe 4-5 players in each of the 2013 and 2014 drafts. In this sense, this offseason is really the key to planning for the next 2-3 years, AKA the end of the Brady window. Lets hope they go all out to maximize our chances of staying a Top 5 team and getting back to the Super Bowl.

4. The one really bad contract on this team belongs to Logan Mankins, who will have a $10M+ cap charge in 2013 and 2014 and is uncuttable for another two years. Overall, the front office has done a really nice job avoiding albatross contracts.

Pats Salary Cap 2013

Name	Position	Cap Value	Dead Money	Cap Savings
Brady, Tom	QB	$13,800,000	$46,600,000	($32,800,000)
Wilfork, Vince	DT	$10,608,120	$7,200,000	$3,408,120
Mankins, Logan	OL	$10,000,000	$12,000,000	($2,000,000)
Mayo, Jerod	LB	$5,600,000	$13,200,000	($7,600,000)
Lloyd, Brandon	WR	$4,500,000	$5,000,000	($500,000)
Hernandez, Aaron	TE	$4,073,000	$10,050,000	($5,977,000)
Gostkowski, Stephen K	P/K	$3,408,120	$1,600,000	$1,808,120
Connolly, Dan	OL	$3,333,333	$1,666,667	$1,166,666
Gronkowski, Rob	TE	$2,700,000	$11,470,000	($8,770,000)
Solder, Nate	OL	$2,329,225	$4,276,848	($1,947,623)
Slater, Matthew	WR	$2,266,666	$1,333,334	$933,332
Gregory, Steve	S	$2,183,333	$1,666,667	$516,666
Jones, Chandler	DE	$1,857,613	$5,935,124	($4,077,511)
McCourty, Devin	CB	$1,853,120	$2,290,000	($436,880)
Hightower, Donta	LB	$1,755,455	$4,876,365	($3,120,910)
Ninkovich, Rob	LB	$1,666,668	$666,668	$1,000,000
Fells, Daniel	TE	$1,658,333	$666,667	$991,166
Dowling, Ras-I	CB	$1,446,572	$1,530,141	($83,569)
Love, Kyle	DT	$1,100,000	$250,000	$850,000
Wendell, Ryan	OL	$1,015,000	$150,000	$865,000
Wilson, Tavon	S	$958,613	$1,712,395	($753,782)
Vereen, Shane	RB	$943,950	$508,600	$435,350
Cunningham, Jermaine	DE	$913,120	$330,000	$583,120
Larsen, Spencer	LB	$875,000	$125,000	$750,000
Spikes, Brandon	LB	$823,120	$240,000	$583,120
Ridley, Stevan	RB	$805,500	$324,000	$481,500
Mallett, Ryan	QB	$803,953	$321,938	$482,015
Cannon, Marcus	OL	$637,687	$100,250	$537,437
McDonald, Nick	OL	$630,000	$0	$630,000
Mesko, Zoltan	P/K	$629,934	$46,814	$583,120
Bequette, Jake	DE	$619,950	$404,850	$215,100
Deaderick, Brandon	DE	$593,195	$10,075	$583,120
Aiken, Danny	OL	$555,000	$0	$555,000
Ebner, Nate	CB	$504,150	$72,450	$431,700
Dennard, Alfonzo	CB	$494,462	$43,386	$451,076
Bolden, Brandon	RB	$485,000	$10,000	$475,000
Zusevics, Markus	OL	$484,333	$8,667	$475,666
Francis, Justin	DE	$482,333	$4,667	$477,666
Aiken, Kamar	WR	$480,000	$0	$480,000
Rivera, Mike	LB	$480,000	$0	$480,000
Williams, Malcolm	CB	$480,000	$0	$480,000
Demps, Jeff	RB	$408,666	$7,334	$401,332
Hix, Kyle	OL	$408,000	$3,000	$405,000
Herman, Brad	TE	$405,833	$1,667	$404,166
TOTAL	ALL	$92,056,357

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 04 March 2013 - 04:09 PM.

[shoosh77]

I believe Dan Connolly's dead money has an extra number in it, maybe the leading 2.

[H78]

Any chance Brady can restructure if the team convinces him that's the only way to keep Welker?

[Mystic Merlin]

Ras-I's number is a problem, and I'm not too keen on carrying Ghost at a 3.5M charge. I'd try to re-work his deal to push it down.

[H78]

Agreed on Dowling. Unless he blows you away in camp, he needs to be cut before the season begins.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I believe Dan Connolly's dead money has an extra number in it, maybe the leading 2.

Thanks. Fixed now.

Any chance Brady can restructure if the team convinces him that's the only way to keep Welker?

Brady's current deal only runs through 2014 so you could do a minor restructure that would essentially push $3-4M of his 2013 cap charge toward 2014 (where it would then be huge) or you could do a major restructure that includes an extension. But that raises some tough questions about how long he wants to play and how long the team wants to commit $20M+ to him.

Ras-I's number is a problem, and I'm not too keen on carrying Ghost at a 3.5M charge. I'd try to re-work his deal to push it down.

Cutting Ras-I will end up costing us at least $500K since his cap hit would be a wash and we would need to pay somebody else to fill his roster spot. Hopefully, somebody beats him out next summer but I think he'll be retained or cut on the merits without much salary cap consideration.

I agree about Ghost. I think we could very easily see a young cheap kicker brought into camp for some real competition.

[phragle]

Agreed on Dowling. Unless he blows you away in camp, he needs to be cut before the season begins.

What? He'd cost more money to cut than keep.

[H78]

Yikes, my eyes saw the $250,000 Kyle Love number. Please disregard.

[Super Nomario]

Cutting Ras-I will end up costing us at least $500K since his cap hit would be a wash and we would need to pay somebody else to fill his roster spot. Hopefully, somebody beats him out next summer but I think he'll be retained or cut on the merits without much salary cap consideration.

Dowling was the only DB other than Arrington that the Pats used both outside and in the slot. Per the other thread Arrington's a free agent; they might give Dowling a chance to win this role. At the very least his versatility would be good depth as a fourth corner.

[wutang112878]

Gostowski's contract has to be addressed, the cap number for punter/kickers was $2.5Mish last year. I dont have enough knowledge of the kicker market to be sure, but it seems like Gostowski is getting a top 3-5 kicker cap hit but I dont think he is providing that level of production.

Is it time to slightly extend Wilfork to make some cap room? His last contract was 5yrs$40M, $18M in bonuses, $24M guaranteed. Unless he completely falls off the map next year, he seems to be a lock to be back in 14. Do you approach him about lowering the cap hit and giving him some additional security? Perhaps add 1 real year to the deal at $5M in guaranteed salary and a dummy $15M fake year in 2016. He has a total of $7.2M in prorated bonuses in 13 and 14 at $3.6M a season, if the extra 2 years were added, instead of $3.6M of prorated bonus a season it would be $1.8M, and his cap numbers would go from $10.6, $11.6 to $8.8, $9.8, $6.8 and the dummy $16.8 As I was typing this I thought it made sense, but I really wonder if the $2M in cap room created in 13 and 14 is worth the injury risk we assume by extending the deal.

Fells is probably a quick, that saves us ~$1M



Am I the only one that is continually surprised each year that the Pats dont have a huge chunk of money to spend? I know Bill likes to spread the wealth across roster spot 1-45, and we have some high priced guys but we are very disciplined with our cap basically the anti-Jets. Yet every offseason I always think there is a chance that we have like an extra $10M that we could go play with in free agency but it never really happens.

Take this year, we have $20M in 'space' but if we franchised Welker thats $10M there, resigning Talib would probably required a deal in the $5M -$7M cap hit range, Volmer might get $5Mish as well I would imagine, maybe we get lucky and Edelman flies under the radar and we keep him for $2M, but there is $22M in spending to just bring the same exact team back without any additions.

[phragle]

Ideally I would extend Brady to free up some space, then explore cutting Ghost, Connolly, Gregory, and Fells. I'd definitely cut Larsen. Hopefully that would free up enough space to resign Welker, Vollmer, Talib, and Thomas.

That Mankins contract sucks. Can that thing be restructured?

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

[/size]
Dowling was the only DB other than Arrington that the Pats used both outside and in the slot. Per the other thread Arrington's a free agent; they might give Dowling a chance to win this role. At the very least his versatility would be good depth as a fourth corner.

Good points all around. What are your thoughts on Talib? His presence and absence seemed to make a big difference this year. But, as I just noted in another thread, he has been pretty injury prone his whole career, failing to play more than 13 games his last three seasons.

Gauging Talib's market value is pretty difficult. If I had to guess, I think something like 4/32, with a $12M signing bonus and salaries of $4M, $4M, $6M, $6M and the first two years guaranteed for a total of $20M in guaranteed money might be in the ballpark. This would keep his cap numbers fairly manageable for the next two years and after 2014 you either have a lot of cap relief and can deal with his high number or can cut him relatively cheaply. For reference, Jonathan Joseph got 5/$49M with a $12.5M bonus (23.5 guaranteed) and Brandon Carr got 5/50M with a $10M bonus (26 guaranteed) but they didn't have the injury history or off-field baggage. Edit to note that Cromartie got 4/32 and he might be a good comp.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 21 January 2013 - 02:21 PM.

[H78]

Another (possibly stupid) question...

Is trading Mankins an option? Not sure how the cap hit comes should a team actually express interest.

Edited by H78, 21 January 2013 - 02:26 PM.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Another (possibly stupid) question...

Is trading Mankins an option? Not sure how the cap hit comes should a team actually express interest.

If we could trade him, the other team would assume the responsibilities of his contract so we would get out from under. But who wants to trade for a guard with a $10M cap hit?

Looking back, the Mankins deal is really a textbook example of the type of contract you don't want to sign in today's NFL - a big six year deal to a guy at a fairly replaceable position in which the player is only cutable after the 4th year.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 21 January 2013 - 02:33 PM.

[SeoulSoxFan]

Another (possibly stupid) question...

Is trading Mankins an option? Not sure how the cap hit comes should a team actually express interest.

Stop. You're making my crazy trade ideas look good in comparison, and that's not where you want to be.

On another note, Talib seemed genuinely thrilled to be here, and continues to be after the game: http://espn.go.com/b...being-a-patriot

I've no doubt his off-the-field issues can continue to be managed in NE, and played in 15, 15, 11, 13, and 12 games over his career. While not perfect, that's enough to sign up for a fair 3 year deal.

Ed Reed comes to the Pats when Matt Light un-retires and plays for the Jets.

[phragle]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Pats are not the only team with a less than ideal cap situaish. There could be a lot of interesting cuts around the league.

[wutang112878]

Another (possibly stupid) question...

Is trading Mankins an option? Not sure how the cap hit comes should a team actually express interest.

It doesnt make cap-sense to do this, unless someone offered us a bounty of picks in return which isnt happening. Mankins has $12M in bonuses left that are spread over the next 3 years, or put differently $4M a year. His 2013 cap number is $10M, which is why it would cost more to cut him than to keep him and his cap savings is negative $2M = $10M - $12M. If the Pats did this after a certain date [I forget when that date is but its between the draft and the last cutdown day] they could spread the $12M hit over 2 years, and make it $6M of deadmoney applied per yer in 2013 and 2014, and create $4M in cap room in 2013 and have Mankins cost us $6M in cap room in 2014.

To summarize, while his salary would be off the books, but in 2013 and 2014 we would actually lose $2M in cap room ($4M savings in 13 and $6M loss in 14), and have to replace Mankins. The real cap savings would be in 2015, sidenote it was smart of Mankin's agent to set the deal up this way, and this I MEAN RAISES THE QUESTION why not just wait to cut or trade him in 2015? Because after the 2014 season the cap ramifications become much more favorable. In 2015 there would only be $4M in bonus left and his salary is $7M, so cutting him and taking all the deadmoney hit in 2015 would instantly save $3M, if they spread the $4M out over 2015 and 2016, they would save $5M in 2015 and have a hit of $2M in 2016. Either way, in either of those scenarios there are some instant gratification savings.

[wutang112878]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Pats are not the only team with a less than ideal cap situaish. There could be a lot of interesting cuts around the league.

Are there any reliable 32 team cap projections that you have seen? I know ESPN does a few iterations in the offseason, but I havent seen a league wide one recently.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Are there any reliable 32 team cap projections that you have seen? I know ESPN does a few iterations in the offseason, but I havent seen a league wide one recently.

These are the numbers that I've seen in a few places but I can't vouch for their reliability.

[SeoulSoxFan]

Are there any reliable 32 team cap projections that you have seen? I know ESPN does a few iterations in the offseason, but I havent seen a league wide one recently.

Here's another from BR:

http://bleacherrepor...-every-nfl-team

[BigJimEd]

From John Clayton

Pats with 18.6M to spend, Baltimore with 15.7, Denver with 18.5, Houston 12.9, Cinci with 55 million to play with.

AFC East numbers: Miami 35.8, Buffalo 20.6. Jets over by 19.4

[shoosh77]

Cinci could be a force with that much to play with. Obvious owner issues aside.

[Wilco's Last Fan]

Don't know how reliable this site is, but the near 3.5 million cap hit for Ghost would have put him just outside the top 5 for kickers this year. Definitely a cut candidate.

http://www.spotrac.c...cap-hit/kicker/

[Wilco's Last Fan]

I think the only way the Pats make a big splash in FA is if they let Vollmer go, and I think they should do just that.

With Vollmer and Mankins, the Pats would have two big investments in offensive linemen at or entering their 30s, and both players have documented injury histories. Vollmer's back, in particular, seems to me to be a serious long-term concern.

I would rather see that money invested in a playmaker on defense, like Jairus Byrd or Henry Melton. I love the big Dusseldorfian, but I think they can find a suitable replacement for a fraction of what he would cost. Someone's probably going to pay Vollmer like a LT, after all.

Edited by Wilco's Last Fan, 21 January 2013 - 09:10 PM.

[axx]

Welker's franchise # is 11.4 according to Rotoworld. I'd say it's unlikely he's back on a franchise deal.

[Shelterdog]

Don't know how reliable this site is, but the near 3.5 million cap hit for Ghost would have put him just outside the top 5 for kickers this year. Definitely a cut candidate.

http://www.spotrac.c...cap-hit/kicker/

I think he's more likely to restructure than to be cut. He's pretty good but they do have some leverage because he hasn't been that good.

I think Vollmer's a goner. Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves too carefully but Markus Zucevics their decision to keep Zucevics on the roster as a fourth tackle when they could have easily put him on IR (and essentially picking Zucevics over Kopa) suggests to me that between Cannon and MZ they think they have two pretty decent right tackle types.

[ckernan]

How much would it count against cap to cut Gostkowski? and Lloyd? Just thinking of other alternatives to create more cap space.

By the way, I'm the new guy, thanks for taking me aboard.

One last thought, Bengals have a ton of space ($55m or so), might they be interested in Welker via trade. They have 2 - 2nd round picks.

If I had to choose between Welker and Talib, which the Pats might, I think I would take Talib. He is younger and more likely to help you going forward. Getting a lock down corner is pivotal to the success of the defense. I'm not a Welker hater at all, but he is on the back 9. I just don't think sinking long term money into him is a good investment. Giving him the franchise tag money for one more year isn't something 'm crazy about, but what the hell do I know.

[dcmissle]

Welker's franchise # is 11.4 according to Rotoworld. I'd say it's unlikely he's back on a franchise deal.

Agreed. They didn't much like franchising him this year. Next year, they'll like it less.

His path back here looks dicey.

Why would he take the Pats' version of a team friendly deal this year when he declined last year and had a fine season? And why would he do this when there is at least some indication that they might have tried to see how this engine would run very early in the season without him, perhaps freeing him up for a trade mid-season? If I'm his agent, I'm looking at the circumstantial evidence exactly that way.

That they needed him dearly only gives Welker more leverage. At 32, this will be his last deal.

I suspect they might allow him to shop, and if the number comes back too big, they will pass.

[Wilco's Last Fan]

I think Vollmer's a goner. Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves too carefully but Markus Zucevics their decision to keep Zucevics on the roster as a fourth tackle when they could have easily put him on IR (and essentially picking Zucevics over Kopa) suggests to me that between Cannon and MZ they think they have two pretty decent right tackle types.

Right, and while franchising him is an option if we wanted a one-year bridge to those two, there's no difference in the franchise tag between RTs and LTs, so we'd basically be paying LT money to a RT. We'd essentially use half of our remaining cap space on a 29-year old RT with back issues.

Edited by Wilco's Last Fan, 21 January 2013 - 09:57 PM.

[Shelterdog]

Agreed. They didn't much like franchising him this year. Next year, they'll like it less.

His path back here looks dicey.

Why would he take the Pats' version of a team friendly deal this year when he declined last year and had a fine season? And why would he do this when there is at least some indication that they might have tried to see how this engine would run very early in the season without him, perhaps freeing him up for a trade mid-season? If I'm his agent, I'm looking at the circumstantial evidence exactly that way.

That they needed him dearly only gives Welker more leverage. At 32, this will be his last deal.

I suspect they might allow him to shop, and if the number comes back too big, they will pass.

I bet they let Welker shop, and I bet he comes back. I think the demand is going to be low for him--between his age, the fact that he strictly a slot guy, and the fact that people will assume Brady/the Pats' scheme is responsible for a ton of his success, why spend a ton on him? Maybe if someone like Manning needs a slot receiver it makes sense but other than that (a team in GFIN mode with a very good quarterback and no slot receiver) I would think most teams would pass.

[Super Nomario]

I think Vollmer's a goner. Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves too carefully but Markus Zucevics their decision to keep Zucevics on the roster as a fourth tackle when they could have easily put him on IR (and essentially picking Zucevics over Kopa) suggests to me that between Cannon and MZ they think they have two pretty decent right tackle types.

They carried four tackles much of 2011 (Light, Vollmer, Solder, Cannon) and 2009 (Light, Kaczur, Vollmer, LeVoir), just to name two recent examples. I think they like Cannon and Zusevics, but I don't think the fact that they kept a fourth tackle means they're convinced these guys are ready for prime time.

Per this link, right tackle is actually the lowest-paid OL position. If somebody sees Vollmer as a LT option they might break the bank for him, but he hasn't played there since his rookie season. Eric Winston signed for 4 years, $22 MM last year; would you go that high for Vollmer?

[Wilco's Last Fan]

If somebody sees Vollmer as a LT option they might break the bank for him, but he hasn't played there since his rookie season.

true, but as Bedard pointed out last month, Vollmer's agent Ben Dogra may be able to sell him as a potential starter at LT: http://www.bostonglo...kFN/story.html.

if that's the case, then I say absolutely pass.

[phragle]

What happened with the Fanene situation? They disputed it, right?

 

 

Anyway, according to this we have the eighth most cap room.

 

Cincinnati $55.1M

Cleveland  $48.9M
Miami $35.8M
Tampa Bay $31.3M
Jacksonville $22.1M
Buffalo $20.6M
Tennessee $19.4M
New England $18.6M
Seattle $18.6M

http://espn.go.com/n...ct-cap-strategy

[BigJimEd]

NYJetscap.com takes a look at the Patriots cap

 

 

I actually see this as a very big decision making year for the Patriots.The team will have two big cap decisions to make in regards to starting
QB Tom Brady and WR Wes Welker. I think one of the underlying themes of the Patriots decisions in 2013 will actually be the effect in 2014
where New England already has almost $106.4 million of committed cap dollars for just 37 players and $62.6 million tied up in their top 6 players.

Edited by BigJimEd, 29 January 2013 - 10:54 AM.

[tims4wins]

NYJetscap.com takes a look at the Patriots cap

$106.4M for "just" 37 players makes it seem like they're in bad shape. But the reality is that leaves them about $1M per player for the final 16 guys on their roster. That is actually a pretty high number. Consider, the bottom 16 guys currently on that list have an average cap hit of about $584K.

 

Edit: to contrast, the Jets have $110.2M tied up in TEN players, and $128.9M in 17 players. Given the estimated $121M cap in 2013, that means the Jets 13th player puts them over the cap. Meaning they have $0 to spend on the remaining 40 roster spots.

 

Of course, we all know they are going to dump a bunch of those contracts, but the point stands. $106.4M on 37 guys is a GOOD cap situation.

Edited by tims4wins, 29 January 2013 - 11:09 AM.

[Shelterdog]

$106.4M for "just" 37 players makes it seem like they're in bad shape. But the reality is that leaves them about $1M per player for the final 16 guys on their roster. That is actually a pretty high number. Consider, the bottom 16 guys currently on that list have an average cap hit of about $584K.

 

 

And then when you throw two drafts it becomes about 111 million for 48-50 players. And it includes 15 of this year's starters (the exceptions being Welker, Wendell, Vollmer, Love, Ninkovich, Talib and Spikes).  And it's a really soft 106.4 million--there are a ton of guys in the last year of their contracts who can easily get cut or restructured.

 

The Pats are actually in really good shape for 2014.  This is just an article by a Jets fan who's concocting a crazy argument about how the Pats have trouble. 

[soxfan121]

Ignore the analysis and focus on the numbers. Restructuring Mankins has to happen and a Brady extension makes sense sooner rather than later. 

[Stitch01]

Brady extension seems much more likely.  What do you propose they do to restructure Mankins deal?   He's signed through '16 and completely uncuttable this season.

[Super Nomario]

Ignore the analysis and focus on the numbers. Restructuring Mankins has to happen and a Brady extension makes sense sooner rather than later. 

I wouldn't say it to his face, but that Mankins contract looks kind of bad now. Hurt (only one missed game, but reduced effectiveness) last year, hurt again this year (6 missed games); are we going to see a 100% healthy guy again?

[Shelterdog]

Brady extension seems much more likely.  What do you propose they do to restructure Mankins deal?   He's signed through '16 and completely uncuttable this season.

 

 

I was about to post this.  There aren't big savings available on Mankins in 2013--you can push back a couple million bucks into 2014-2016 but his contract is more or less what is for a while and we just need to hope he plays like 2010 Mankins again. [SN:  If Mankins continues to play at the level he played at in 2011 and 2012, then yes, it's a crappy contract.  Here's to hoping that it was just a run of bad luck.]

 

Brady's a free agent after 2014 so you need to do something with him before 2013.  The truly ballsy move would actually be to trade him this off-season or next because the chances of him playing at a $22 million a year value in 2013, 2014 and thereafter is getting increasingly remote.

Edited by Shelterdog, 29 January 2013 - 12:14 PM.

[wutang112878]

What do you propose they do to restructure Mankins deal?   He's signed through '16 and completely uncuttable this season.

 

Exactly, this is the problem with trying to get Mankins to adjust his deal right now, he has all the leverage.  He knows it costs more to cut him than keep him right now, so if you ask him to adjust he is going to laugh.

[Mystic Merlin]

They won't be able to restructure the Mankins deal, which, I gotta say, looks pretty bad right now. It's also why no one should talk the talking heads seriously when they drone on about 'taking care of' players.

He'll play out the next two seasons and likely be cut in 2015.

[wutang112878]

On quick note of context on the Mankins situation and how quickly things, like our opinion, change.  Prior to getting this deal Mankins was one of the most durable players on the Pats, not missing a single game his first 5 years and I dont even remember him missing a practice.  He held out for a bit in 2010 but came back and it seemed like he didnt miss a beat.  Got a little banged up with a torn ACL in 2011, and after having an injury filled and subpar year this year we are assuming he is on the decline.  Before we assume he is done, lets just give him 1 more year and an offseason where he hopefully isnt rehabbing an ACL tear.

[phragle]

Brady extension seems much more likely.  What do you propose they do to restructure Mankins deal?   He's signed through '16 and completely uncuttable this season.

 

Did you read the article? If you or anyone else hasn't you're missing out.

 

The Patriots are extremely cap heavy in their top 3 players, which are Brady, G Logan Mankins, and NT Vince Wilfork, who take up $42.4 million in cap space. Mankins has 4 years remaining on his contract and is probably a candidate to restructure to gain cap room. By reducing his salary to $825,000 this year and guaranteeing his workout bonus they gain $3.675 million in cap space while only adding $1.5 million to the 2014 cap number. That would seem like a no-brainer type move. 

[Shelterdog]

Did you read the article? If you or anyone else hasn't you're missing out.

 

The numbers in the article are completely fucked.  If you reduce Mankins' salary to 825k you gain about 4.9 million in cap space this year but lose 1.6 in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016.  It's a zero sum game: if you reduce your exposure by X in 1 year you have to pay back the X in later years.  So sure, if you're desperate for cap space in 2014 you can do it but then you have a problem in 2015-2016.

 

The article only makes you dumber.  Stay away from it. 

[phragle]

The numbers in the article are completely fucked.  If you reduce Mankins' salary to 825k you gain about 4.9 million in cap space this year but lose 1.6 in each of 2014, 2015 and 2016.  It's a zero sum game: if you reduce your exposure by X in 1 year you have to pay back the X in later years.  So sure, if you're desperate for cap space in 2014 you can do it but then you have a problem in 2015-2016.

 

The article only makes you dumber.  Stay away from it. 

 

I actually wouldn't restructure Mankins, but I didn't know that was case on that particular proposal. The "no-brainer" part threw me. The article has dumb ideas, but accurate information.

 

As fan as the cap situation. I think they have about 14M in usable cap space, but they can save about a million by cutting Fells, 750K from Larsen, Ghost could take a pay but of about 1M, and a extension and restructure of Brady can open up about 4M. That's almost 21 million total without mortgaging the future. The Fanene deal is a wildcard too.

[dbn]

I actually wouldn't restructure Mankins, but I didn't know that was case on that particular proposal. The "no-brainer" part threw me. The article has dumb ideas, but accurate information.

 

As fan as the cap situation. I think they have about 14M in usable cap space, but they can save about a million by cutting Fells, 750K from Larsen, Ghost could take a pay but of about 1M, and a extension and restructure of Brady can open up about 4M. That's almost 21 million total without mortgaging the future. The Fanene deal is a wildcard too.

 

 

Just so it's clear, that 14M number is what is available for (1) draft picks, (2) outside free-agents, and (3) re-signing their own free-agents (Welker, Volmer, Talib, Edelman, etc.), right?  

[phragle]

Just so it's clear, that 14M number is what is available for (1) draft picks, (2) outside free-agents, and (3) re-signing their own free-agents (Welker, Volmer, Talib, Edelman, etc.), right?  

 

Not draft picks, just free agents. 

 

The Patriots hold the 29th slotted pick in rounds 1-3 as well round 7. They also have the Buccaneers 7th round draft pick. Those 5 selections should cost the team a total of $3,311,620 in cap dollars in 2013 with a high of $1,312,918 for their first round pick all the way down to $416,898 assuming no dramatic changes in the calculations. In terms of net cap space that amounts to about $1.69 million as the draft picks replace the bottom of the current roster. For 2014 the total cost should be $4,065,685, which is also the net figure. So realistically before tenders for RFA’s or franchise players the Patriots as of today are looking at a real cap figure of $14 million

 

http://nyjetscap.com...salary-cap.html

[Shelterdog]

I actually wouldn't restructure Mankins, but I didn't know that was case on that particular proposal. The "no-brainer" part threw me. The article has dumb ideas, but accurate information.

 

As fan as the cap situation. I think they have about 14M in usable cap space, but they can save about a million by cutting Fells, 750K from Larsen, Ghost could take a pay but of about 1M, and a extension and restructure of Brady can open up about 4M. That's almost 21 million total without mortgaging the future. The Fanene deal is a wildcard too.

 

 

Whatever accurate information is in there is presented so poorly that you end up giving exactly the wrong impression about the Pats' 2014 cap system.  He's suggesting that it's going to be tight--and depending on what they do this off-season it might be--but as of right now the Pats have a decent amount of cap space in 2014 (14 million left after paying draft picks, so you have $14 million to fill out the last 4 guys on the roster and IR), with the vast majority of their starters under contract, and a zillion ways to increase the cap space if they want to since you have a lot of players who can be cut without creating too much dead money, and you have other good players (like Brady) who could easily be restructured.  

 

Plus pearl-clutching about a team that's $14 million under the cap with a ton of guys signed is just overblown.  That's not a tight situation at all--as a simple example the Steelers are about $20 million over the 2013 cap after RFAs and draft picks are counted, with four slots to fill, and the 2013 Jets are more than $30 million over the 2013 cap when RFAs and draft picks are counted (they do have a full roster). 

 

The author is too busy thinking about the mote in Belichick's eye and ignoring the log in his own. 

[BigJimEd]

He's suggesting that it's going to be tight--and depending on what they do this off-season it might be--but as of right now the Pats have a decent amount of cap space in 2014

I don't agree with quite a bit in the article. I don't think the Patriots are in bad situation for the 2014 cap but I also wouldn't classify it as really good. The main point is the Patriots have some decisions that start this off season.

 

Signing 2 or 3 of Welker, Talib and Vollmer plus either Edelman or Arrington to multi year deals will likely leave them close or even over the 2014 cap. As was said they do have a few guys that can easily be renegotiated/released and will likely have few holes to fill but these considerations need to be accounted for when going after this year's FAs. It's not just the cost this year but also future years.

 

Of course that is generally true of most teams, particularly those with high priced QBs.