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The 2013 Arbitration Thread


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#1 mabrowndog


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Posted 17 January 2013 - 09:46 PM

This past Tuesday marked the deadline for eligible players to file for arbitration. A full list of the 133 major leaguers who filed is here. SoxProspects has a rundown of all Red Sox arb-eligible players and resolutions over the past decade here.

Tomorrow is the deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures. For cases that aren't settled between parties beforehand, arbitration hearings will be held between February 1 and 21. The arbiter will pick one figure or the other. There's no meeting in the middle if the parties can't do so on their own.

Under the respective GM reigns of Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington, the Red Sox have yet to have a case advance to the arbiter decision stage.

With Salty having agreed to terms today, the Sox now have 8 arb-eligible players on the 40-man roster (projections from MLB Trade Rumors):

2013 Arbitration Scoreboard
2012 2013 MLBTR Player Team
Salary Projection Request Offer Settlement
2nd Year Alfredo Aceves, RHRP $1.200M $2.600M $2.650M
Andrew Bailey, RHRP $3.900M $4.400M $4.100M
Daniel Bard, RHRP $1.610M $2.000M $1.8625M
Andrew Miller, LHRP $1.040M $1.500M $1.475M
Franklin Morales, LHRP $0.850M $1.400M $1.4875M
3rd Year Craig Breslow, LHRP $0.643M $2.400M $2.375M $2.325M 2-yr/$6.25M (+ $3.9M opt for 2015)
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF $8.050M $8.500M $9.000M
Joel Hanrahan, RHRP $4.100M $6.900M $7.040M
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C $2.500M $3.900M $4.500M

Edited by mabrowndog, 19 January 2013 - 10:37 PM.


#2 mabrowndog


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Posted 17 January 2013 - 10:05 PM

For those interested, the lowdown on arbitration:

Q: When does a player become eligible for salary arbitration?
A: A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 22 percent (increased from 17 percent in previous agreements) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

Q: What is the record between players and owners in salary arbitration cases?
Since 1974, and including 2012, arbitrators have ruled on behalf of the players 214 times and clubs 286 times. Although the number of players filing for salary arbitration varies per year, the majority of cases are settled before the arbitration hearing date. Approximately 90 percent of the players filing for arbitration typically reach new agreements before a hearing.



#3 Hairps

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 11:13 PM

(projections from MLB Trade Rumors):


FWIW, signings to-date have seemed to me to be coming in consistently higher than MLBTR's arbitration projections. Rather than rely on that gut feeling, however, I decided to look into it a bit further. Alas...

Arbitraton Projections vs. Actual
Name Team 2013 MLBTR Arbitration Projection Signing O/U Projection O/U $$$
Matt Harrison Rangers $6,100,000.00 5 year extension
Santiago Casilla Giants $5,400,000.00 3 year extension
Jared Burton Twins $2,100,000.00 2 year extension
Logan Ondrusek Reds $900,000.00 2 year extension
Matt Garza Cubs $10,000,000.00 $10,250,000.00 103% $250,000.00
David Price Rays $9,500,000.00 $10,113,000.00 106% $613,000.00
Phil Hughes Yankees $5,700,000.00 $7,150,000.00 125% $1,450,000.00
Colby Rasmus Blue Jays $4,500,000.00 $4,675,000.00 104% $175,000.00
Jarrod Saltalamacchia Red Sox $3,900,000.00 $4,500,000.00 115% $600,000.00
Carlos Gomez Brewers $3,400,000.00 $4,300,000.00 126% $900,000.00
Neftali Feliz Rangers $3,100,000.00 $4,000,000.00 129% $900,000.00
Brett Gardner Yankees $2,800,000.00 $2,850,000.00 102% $50,000.00
Will Venable Padres $2,500,000.00 $2,675,000.00 107% $175,000.00
Rajai Davis Blue Jays $3,900,000.00 $2,500,000.00 64% $(1,400,000.00)
Drew Storen Nationals $1,700,000.00 $2,500,000.00 147% $800,000.00
Charlie Morton Pirates $2,600,000.00 $2,000,000.00 77% $(600,000.00)
Jerome Williams Angels $1,900,000.00 $2,000,000.00 105% $100,000.00
Joba Chamberlain Yankees $1,800,000.00 $1,875,000.00 104% $75,000.00
Tommy Hunter Orioles $1,800,000.00 $1,820,000.00 101% $20,000.00
John Jaso Mariners $1,700,000.00 $1,800,000.00 106% $100,000.00
Wilton Lopez Astros $1,400,000.00 $1,760,000.00 126% $360,000.00
Felipe Paulino Royals $2,700,000.00 $1,750,000.00 65% $(950,000.00)
Alexi Casilla Twins $1,800,000.00 $1,700,000.00 94% $(100,000.00)
Bobby Parnell Mets $1,500,000.00 $1,700,000.00 113% $200,000.00
Chris Resop Pirates $1,300,000.00 $1,350,000.00 104% $50,000.00
Tony Sipp Indians $1,000,000.00 $1,275,000.00 128% $275,000.00
Daric Barton Athletics $1,100,000.00 $1,100,000.00 100% $-
Chris Getz Royals $1,200,000.00 $1,050,000.00 88% $(150,000.00)
Sean Rodriguez Rays $1,200,000.00 $1,000,000.00 83% $(200,000.00)
Nolan Reimold Orioles $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 100% $-
George Kottaras Athletics $1,100,000.00 $1,000,000.00 91% $(100,000.00)
Pat Neshek Athletics $900,000.00 $975,000.00 108% $75,000.00
Luis Valbuena Cubs $900,000.00 $930,000.00 103% $30,000.00
Kevin Frandsen Phillies $800,000.00 $850,000.00 106% $50,000.00
Paul Janish Braves $900,000.00 $725,000.00 81% $(175,000.00)
Drew Butera Twins $500,000.00 $700,000.00 140% $200,000.00
Josh Kinney Mariners $700,000.00 $700,000.00 100% $-
Adam Rosales Athletics $700,000.00 $700,000.00 100% $-
Josh Outman Rockies $600,000.00 $675,000.00 113% $75,000.00
Taylor Teagarden Orioles $800,000.00 $650,000.00 81% $(150,000.00)
Kyle Blanks Padres $600,000.00 $605,000.00 101% $5,000.00
Brett Hayes Marlins $480,000.00 $600,000.00 125% $120,000.00
Blake Wood Royals $600,000.00 $560,000.00 93% $(40,000.00)

I might update this post later with a further breakdown; of course, others should feel free to do the same.

FYI, players highlighted in red missed a significant part of 2012 due to injury.

#4 TheYaz67

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 11:58 PM

Most look right (or a bit low, ala the Salty number) - the $6.9M for Hanrahan seems like a bit of an outlier (meaning too high, I hope at least)....

#5 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 01:29 PM

Ellsbury, too, gets a deal for a little more than the MLBTR arb estimate, at $9M:

http://www.mlbtrader...rbitration.html

#6 mabrowndog


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 02:55 PM

Hanrahan gets $7.04M per PeteAbe

#7 Corsi


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:14 PM

aceves gets $2.65M plus incentives

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/292394421050277888
link to tweet

#8 SoxScout


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:41 PM

JonHeymanCBS: craig breslow files at $2.375M, #redsox $2.325M. (i see that 1 settling)


I hope we can bridge the gap.

Sean_McAdam: Red Sox signings: Bailey $4.1 million; Aceves $2.65 million; Bard $1.8625 million; Miller $1.475 million; Morales $1.4875 million.


Edited by SoxScout, 18 January 2013 - 06:20 PM.


#9 mabrowndog


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:43 PM

aceves gets $2.65M plus incentives

https://twitter.com/...394421050277888


For reference, his $1.2M contract last year included $100k in incentives: $25k for reaching 35, 40, 45 & 50 games pitched, which he hit with ease by making 69 appearances. I suspect the dollar amounts are at least doubled on this deal.

#10 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 06:28 PM

Bard got a 250k raise? Quite a system!

#11 mabrowndog


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Posted 18 January 2013 - 07:57 PM

Bard got a 250k raise? Quite a system!


It's all based on service time. If you're an arb-eligible MLB player, even if you suck rhinoceros scrotum, you're still one of the 750 or so best on the planet at your chosen profession. And you get a raise.

#12 Darnell's Son

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 12:20 AM

Bard got a 250k raise? Quite a system!


I'm going to be that guy. What did you expect? Did you seriously expect for him to take a pay cut? Go look at what other teams go through with the arbtration process before you post stuff like this. We get it, you hate this current incarnation of the Red Sox. You don't need to pollute every thread on the main board with your inane posts.

Edit for politeness

Edited by Darnell's Son, 19 January 2013 - 12:26 AM.


#13 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 19 January 2013 - 07:25 AM

Edited for politeness? Shit, would have hated to see it before! My point is that the system is ridiculous, that a guy can spend half the year in the minors, come back and be unable to throw a strike, and still get a nice raise. I understand that's the way it works, good for Bard, and hope that he finds himself with Farrell back. Thx.

#14 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 19 January 2013 - 02:15 PM

Tim Brown of Yahoo reports that Breslow and Red Sox have settled without going to arbitration.

Breslow gets 2 years plus option with Boston. Guaranteed $6.25m. Max on deal is $10.15m. Pending physical.



#15 Edelpeddle

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 02:44 PM

Interesting move with Breslow, I believe that buys out one year of free agency for him as well. Looks like he's safe for a spot in the bullpen and Miller's on the way out.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 19 January 2013 - 02:44 PM.


#16 mabrowndog


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Posted 19 January 2013 - 04:08 PM

Interesting move with Breslow, I believe that buys out one year of free agency for him as well. Looks like he's safe for a spot in the bullpen and Miller's on the way out.


It does, since this is his third and final year of arb eligibility.

#17 In my lifetime

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 06:41 PM

The report of Breslow's signing was a little confusing to me.
After doing some research, I believe that it is as follows:

2 year deal at 6.25 million. So he basically signed giving up his first year as a free agent for 3.9.

Then there is an option --- not sure if it is club/player/mutual option or vested option for the 3rd year at 4.25.

#18 Edelpeddle

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 07:00 PM

Sounds like Breslow wanted to stay close to home. He was born in, went to Yale in and currently has a house in Connecticut.

#19 mabrowndog


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Posted 19 January 2013 - 10:30 PM

Then there is an option --- not sure if it is club/player/mutual option or vested option for the 3rd year at 4.25.


The base deal is $6.25M total over 2 years. Assuming they set year 1 as the $2.35M mid-point of their respective arb figures, year 2 would indeed be $3.9M.

But according to all the reports I've seen, the option would push the total to $10.15M, making the option also worth $3.9M -- same as year 2.

#20 mabrowndog


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Posted 19 January 2013 - 11:14 PM

For perspective, LHRP Jeremy Affeldt (a year older than Breslow) put up 1.3 fWAR from 2010-2012 and signed an extension with the Giants for $18M over 3 years, all of it guaranteed.

Breslow generated 1.7 fWAR over the same span, yet at most he'll make just over half of Affeldt's deal -- and his guaranteed money is merely a third of it.

#21 The Boomer

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 01:10 PM

For perspective, LHRP Jeremy Affeldt (a year older than Breslow) put up 1.3 fWAR from 2010-2012 and signed an extension with the Giants for $18M over 3 years, all of it guaranteed.

Breslow generated 1.7 fWAR over the same span, yet at most he'll make just over half of Affeldt's deal -- and his guaranteed money is merely a third of it.


Intangibly, he helps to give the Sox one of the smartest lineups in the majors and gives Lavarnway an intellectual equal from Yale. it's too bad they didn't find a way to get Dartmouth's Brad Ausmus on the staff. I would love to be a fly on the wall during their conversations. Now, in looking for that extra 7th starting pitcher for depth, often injured Chris Young from Princeton is exactly the kind of low risk high reward signing they might be looking for. I believe that such braniacs who are not arrogant only add to that elusive team chemistry.

#22 AZBlue

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 04:04 PM

Deleted. I had posted a comment about the each requesting salary cuts after they had off years because of injuries (Ted from $125,000 to $100,000 and Stan from $100,000 to $75,000). Two obits on Stan Musial referred to Musial being the first National League player to receive $100,000 for a season.

My recollection based on newspaper stories and other accounts about the salaries levels of Ted Willaims and Stan Musial was incorrect. The research by multiple sources cited by Baseball Reference does not support the prior stories that had circulated about both players being at the $100,000 level. Baseball Reference indicates that neither Ted nor Stan ever had a $100,000 or greater salary, but there are notes that explain why I was under the impression that Ted made $100,000 or more for many years and why there are stories referencing Musial's $100,000 salary in at least one season.

Edited by AZBlue, 20 January 2013 - 07:41 PM.





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