4760 replies to this topic

[PrometheusWakefield]

Up:

Paul Goldschmidt (Beginning of Round 4)-> On his way to establishing himself as a superstar and one of the top hitters in the NL

Lorenzo Cain (Beginning of Round 6) -> An extremely good all around baseball player.

Brandon Crawford (Beginning of Round 8) -> Some of his offensive upside seems to be showing up.

Josh Donaldson (End of Round 9) -> Vastly exceeding expectations so far, if his strike zone command is real he's an excellent player.  

 

Down:

Zach Greinke (Beginning of Round 2)-> Carlos Quentin is a thug.

Brett Anderson (End of Round 3) -> Peripherals aren't that bad, but not as good as I was hoping

Ryan Hanigan (Beginning of Round 10) -> Shockingly bad offensive numbers, will probably straighten out a bit but still.

 

Overall pitching is much worse than expected.  Greinke is down, Anderson has been bad, Milone isn't good enough to hold up a staff and Hudson is out til midyear, while the depth has had it's own problems - Britton struggling in AAA, Karstens hurt, Bedard awful, Maronde in the minors.  Basically my staff is making due with replacement level call ups right now.  

 

On the other hand, if Greinke, Hudson and Anderson come back and pitch effectively the offense looks pretty solid with a core middle of the lineup (#2 through #7 of Crawford, Gordon, Goldschmidt, Cain, Donaldson, Moss) who are all somewhere between above average and absolutely raking.  So my guess is that the hitting and defense could be keeping my team afloat while we wait for the pitching staff to get its act together.  

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 15 May 2013 - 12:20 AM.

[Cellar-Door]

Hitting my team has been truly awful with the exception of Kyle Seager and Cargo.

Half my pitchers haven't pitched in the bigs, of the rest it is a mixed bag, decent  starts out of McAllister, Collins and Walden the rest not so much.

[Fishercat]

Relative to their draft position, and excluding guys who were clearly supposed to not contribute in a substantial way (bench players, bullpen pitchers (though Melancon has been a very pleasant surprise and only my last pick was a stinker).

 

Overperformers:

 

Jhonny Peralta (15th SS taken, 7th round pick): He has an unsustainable BABIP but is the 4th ranked SS in fWAR and the 320-380-450 line has been a pleasant surprise.

 

Kelly Johnson (23rd 2B taken, 11th round pick): Largely an OF in Tampa, his offensive numbers would put him safely in the 6-10 class of 2B, probably on the lower end due to his defense, but has provided great value to Tampa as an OF/2B.

 

Russell Martin (22nd C taken, 10th round pick): Is 3rd in fWAR for catchers with a very low BABIP with comparable numbers to anyone but Carlos Santana.

 

Derek Holland (90th SP taken, 9th round pick): 2.93 ERA with a 2.35 FIP. His HR/FB is unsustainable but a good trend considering last year's trouble. His relevant value is highly dependent on the metrics you use but he's outperformed the #3 level I was hoping for.

 

Jordan Zimmermann (21st SP taken, 3rd round pick): Hard to put a 3rd rounder in this category and he's been lucky in a lot of ways with a lower K-rate, but a 1.69 ERA with pinpoint control can't be ignored. Wainwright's still outperforming him peripherally but I'm happy.

 

Hisashi Iwakuma (132nd SP taken, 13th round pick): Seems like the best pick of this bunch. Once again has unsustainable production but been a Top 15-20 SP this year so far. Also, Cingrani and McAllister were taken right after him, so that was a nice run in this draft.

 

Right Around Expectations:

 

Mike Minor (8th round pick, 70th SP taken). The 2.75 ERA masks peripherals that put him a run or so higher (BABIP and LOB% are out of whack) but the K's, BB's, and most everything else is around where I wanted it.

 

Joey Votto (1st round pick, 1st 1B taken): The power isn't there which is concerning, but huge value still exists in any player who gets on base 45% of the time and walks in 18% of his PAs. It does sting a bit to see so many lower level 1Bs putting up similar value but he's doing what I banked on.

 

Chase Headley (2nd round pick, 6th 3B taken): He's 10th ranked in fWAR among 3B with 2/3 of the PAs (due to his injury) of anyone above him. He's producing like he did last year.

 

Peter Bourjos (6th round pick, 15th CF taken): His WAR hasn't made it there, largely as a function of defensive numbers that somehow bring him from otherworldly to below average. I'm guessing that those numbers will come around, but the 310-370-460 offensive line is a pleasant surprise in partial playing time

 

Below Expectations:.

 

Tyler Colvin (12th round pick, 29th RF taken): He hasn't broke into the majors when I expected him to platoon in Colorado and underproduced in the minors.

 

Jesus Guzman (14th round pick, 20th DH taken): Small sample size but nothing's gone right for him this year at all.

 

Curtis Granderson (5th round pick, 8th LF taken): Hurt soon after my pick was made and just came back last night, has to be here by default.

 

Dylan Bundy (4th round pick): Nothing he's done is below expectations, but it was my dumbest pick (I probably would have gone Gallardo, who has been disappointing too, but Lester was also in the mix) and he's already seen James Andrews this year. No surgery required but it's never good to hear of someone Bundy's age going to see Dr. James about his elbow.

[DanoooME]

Hitting:

 

1. Mike Trout - Slow start, but picking it up lately and getting back to where the #2 overall pick should be

2. Eric Hosmer - No power and his K rate is up slightly, everything else seems as usual, not exactly 2nd round pick worthy

3. Carlos Santana - Exceeding wildest expectations at .325/.438/.605

6. Josh Willingham - .204/.377/.417.  BABIP is at .262 vs. his career mark of .295, so that accounts for a little of the average swoon

7. Rickie Weeks - Ugh, let's move on

8. Hunter Pence - .288/.329/.500, I'll take it

11. Chris Carter - 9 HRs, but leading the AL in Ks

12. Emilio Bonifacio - Under the Mendoza line with Weeks

14. Dee Gordon - Called up early May to replace Ramirez, OPS+ of 99

15. Franklin Gutierrez - On the DL since 4/23, slugging .537 in limited action

16. Adam Lind - .275/.400/.425, drawing walks but lost his power

19. Bryan Anderson - Cratering in AAA at .159/.288/.295

25. Juan Diaz - Not much better in AAA at .209/.255/.326

 

Pitching:

4. Tim Lincecum - Definitely not ace material with ERA+ of 84

5. Lance Lynn - ERA+ 129, 5.9 H/9, needs to cut his walk rate (3.8/9)

9. Phil Hughes - Slow start, but back up to ERA+ of 93 with 37/9 K/BB in 40.2 IP

10. Kenley Jansen - Pitching well in set up role (ERA+ 166) and may be replacing League as closer (picked up save last night)

13. Casey Kelly - TJ'ed before the season started

17. Jose De La Rosa - ERA+ 153, but his peripherals aren't sustainable at that level (5.6 K/9, 3/4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9), BABIP .260 vs. career .309

18. Rafael Betancourt - Peripherals have slid considerably (K/BB from 2011-13: 9.13, 4.75, 1.64), but still effective somehow

20. Joaquin Benoit - Off to a good start (24/8 K/BB in 18 IP) in a set up role

21. Carlos Carrasco - Pitched well in AAA, got pounded in only start in majors against NYY

22. Brad Hand - 7 decent starts in AAA, walk rate still sucks, 1 appearance in majors, 1.2 IP, 3 K, 2BB

23. Wesley Wright - Decent performance in set up role, but K rate way down (5.7K/9)

24. Miguel Gonzalez - 6 starts, 93 ERA+, decent 5th starter

 

Overall, probably a middle of the pack team.

[SMU_Sox]

My team is off to really good start even if the back end of my rotation is in shambles and Josh Reddick sucks.

 

James Loney in round 21 and Eduardo Escobar in round 22 are looking like steals.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Over performing:

Bryce Harper (I expected him to become something close to this in another couple years, but that SLG looks like a SSS artifact and the step forward this year looks enormous.  I expect a little regression)

A.J. Ellis (His wRC+ of 130 is definitely more than I was expecting, though not by a ton.  I figured his 118 from last year was about right and wouldn't be surprised to see him regress a bit.  Could be a step forward, though, which would be really nice)

Casey Janssen (I expected him to be a solid, safe closer.  He's been lights out instead.  I doubt he keeps it up, but he's been incredible so far.)

Christian Garcia (Probably a hot streak, but if something clicked and he can keep the walk rate anywhere near where it is, meaning sub 3, this pick could end up a steal)

Joe Thatcher (Also playing better than expected as he looks lights out so far.  He's another guy who will likely see his walk rate come up but if he can keep it under 3 will be another late round steal)

 

Playing well as expected:

Cliff Lee

Trevor Cahill (His ERA is due in part to a low BABIP which should correct itself, but his peripherals are about what I was hoping for)

Shane Victorino (Great defense, positive on the base path, acceptable but unspectacular bat.  He's been quite valuable for the Sox in the first 6 weeks or so)

Mike Leake (Peripherals are about what I was hoping for as a starter and he's getting his opportunities to start in Cincy, just like he would have on my team with Marcum down)

Andrew Bailey (He's been really good when healthy enough to play, but has been hurt a bit as well.  So yeah, as expected)

 

Playing more poorly than expected/Not in the majors:

Ben Zobrist (Just a bit below expected performance but has still been a useful player)

David Freese (He's off to a terrible start)

Edwin Jackson (His walk rate is out of whack and his ERA is terrible, but his FIP and xFIP are about what I was expecting.  Should improve going forward)

Stephen Drew (His line from the last 28 days at b-r.com is decent, but overall and over the last 7 he's been a disappointment)

Adam Dunn (He has 7 home runs but that it literally all he's done. His slash line is horrendous.  I hope this isn't him falling off the cliff finally)

Brett Wallace (I didn't expect him to be all that good, but I was hoping for more than 7 games to this point with a -57 wRC+.  Yikes.)

D.J. LeMahieu (He's been in AAA all season, which is less than i was hoping to see.  At least he's hitting AAA pitchers well.  /silverlining)

Jeff Francoeur (The defense has been solid but the bat has been awful.)

Joe Saunders (He's been terrible.  Nothing more to say.)

Scott Hairston (He's also been terrible.  Every aspect of his game has sucked.)

Robert Andino (Decent glove, decent on the base paths, epically awful at the plate)

Louis Coleman (Been in AAA all year.  Looks good there, but it's AAA)

Bobby Wilson (His slash line has been horrific for the Yankees.  Maybe he needs some time in AAA... what?  Are you sure?  Okay, scratch that.  That IS his AAA slash line. Fuck me.)

 

Playing as poorly as expected:

Shaun Marcum (No, I didn't expect his shoulder to give him trouble, and no I didn't expect an 8+ ERA... but him getting injured just isn't a surprise and is the reason I drafted Leake.)

Randy Choate (Let's be honest... I drafted him because his name sounds sort of like Choad.  He's barely pitched and when he has, he's been lucky.  His slash line will see some correction and he'll continue to be a rarely used fungible bullpen arm that is on the precipice of the end of his career.)

 

Overall, this team is not playing as well as I was hoping.  I've only got ten guys playing well right now and quite a few more playing poorly than I can afford.  Some have had bad enough starts to this season to have me questioning my pick, and that's saying a lot since I'm constantly pointing out SSS and how little they can tell us, and recognize just how little of the season we've been through.  However, Francoeur's bat is terrifying right now.  Adam Dunn looks like he was cooked a couple months ago, then thrown back onto the grill for that nice charcoal-y texture and flavor.  Bobby Wilson... WTF was I thinking there?  Freese looks like shit run over twice.  If he doesn't turn it around my lineup gets thin in a hurry.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Here's my take on picks that shine out in the first few rounds:

 

Round 1

Looking good: Kershaw at 6.  Hard to say anyone is a steal in the first round by definition but I think it's tough to argue there have been 5 more valuable players so far than him.

Not so good: Albert Pujols at 24.  There are some injuries to guys like Stanton but nobody whose performance raises serious red flags about what he's going to do for the rest of the year and the rest of his contract than Pujols. 

 

Round 2

Good: Matt Moore at 52 was a risk but he looks like the real deal, as does Yu Darvish at 43.  

Bad: Brett Lawrie (57) has not been able to get it together yet and it has to be a concern for the Jays.  I'm not really sure how Hosmer jumped all the way to 59 but seems highly questionable.  Maybe I'll feel silly about saying this in a couple years but I don't see how Jurickson Profar at 51 can be the best prospect in the game if he can't put up a .700 OPS in the minors. 

 

Round 3

Good: This could be the year Carlos Santana (62) becomes one of the best in the game.  I thought Manny Machado at 82 was a reach but he's paid off big time so far.  Adam Wainwright at 84 has been insane.  

Bad: WMB at 73 doesn't look great right now.  My skepticism of Brett Gardner at 77 has been borne out thus far.  My optimism about two Oakland pitchers, Jarrod Parker at 88 and Brett Anderson at 90 OTOH has not.

 

Round 4

Good: Paul Goldschmidt has been great at 91.  Matt Harvey has been one of the best in the league at 93.  Choo has had a great bounce back year for 113.   

Bad: I'd be concerned about Dylan Bundy at 97.  Kimbrel doesn't seem as special as he was when he was picked at 107.  Reddick at 103 has badly struggled. 

 

Round 5

Good: Clay Buchholz at 130.  

Bad: Ike Davis (125) is starting to sound like a guy who will never put it together.  Roy Halladay at 127 might be done.  Matt Harrison is unfortunate.  Jesus Montero at 148 is looking like a bust.

 

Round 6

Good: It's my pick, but I love Lorenzo Cain at 151.  But obviously he's nowhere near Shelby Miller at 152, which right now would be my pick of the draft.  Starling Marte at 167 is looking excellent.  Chris Davis has been insane at 172.  I also really like the Matt Carpenter pick at 171.  

Bad: Darwin Barney at 169 has been terrible.  Mark Teixiera (161)'s injuries would make me concerned about the long term.

 

Round 7

Good: Lowrie at 209 is again looking great until he gets hurt again.  I don't know what's happening with Carlos Gomez at 193 but Granite State has a hell of an outfield.

Bad: Chisenhall (201) is starting to look like a bust.  

 

Round 8

Good: Love Crawford at 211.  I don't know how I missed Alex Cobb but he was an awesome pick at 219.  Napoli's injury caused him to fall all the way to 238 but he sure seems like a great pick now.

Bad: Honestly, none of the picks of this round stand out as terrible.  

[JGray38]

Very early of course, but (most of) the Master Batters so far:

 

The good: Almost exclusively pitching. Hopefully this team has won more than their share of 3-2, 2-0 type of games. The guys who are hitting look unsustainable. The pitchers putting up solid numbers seem a lot more likely to continue doing so given track record, stuff, etc.

 

Justin Verlander. The Ace is pitching like one. Peripherals are a bit odd; more walks & Ks, fewer HRs allowed, but the results are the same (or better). SSS and all that.

 

Omar Infante. Tearing it up so far. Not expecting this to last all season.

Hiroki Kuroda. Rebounded from a couple of bad early season starts, putting up great numbers, especially for a 12^th rounder. My fear: he will age like David Bowie in The Hunger and turn to dust before the season ends.

Junichi Tazawa. Falling back to earth fast, and seeing a lot of action. Still, I think he’s been quite successful and really could be an elite reliver. I just hope his arm stays attached.

Carlos Villanueva. Wasn’t sure what role he’d have with the Cubs. Solid middle of the rotation guy so far. Low K rate means it may not last.

Chris Johnson. Ridiculously hot start. Unsustainable, but fun while it lasts.

Drew Smyly , Darren O’Day, Stephen Pryor- With these guys and Tazawa, there’s at least 4 pen arms that look solid. Was hoping Smyly would start, but he’s been valuable as a pen lefty.

Nate McLouth. Hitting like he was back in Pittsburgh.

 

As Expected:

Pablo Sandoval. Hits for AVG, power and making highlight reel plays at 3B. What's not to love here?

Brandon Morrow. Nothing great, but he can keep a team in the game for a while.

Andy Dirks. League average OF playing like one.

Justin Ruggiano. Can’t match last years’ pace so far, but I was just hoping he’d be adequate. He has been exactly that.

 

 

The bad- my lineup of a bunch of guys with double-digit HR potential is not looking so good. More power outages than North Korea.

 

Yoenis Cespedes. Some pop, but no ability to get on base so far this season. K rate is way up (around 20%), lots of weak popups (20% IFF!) .200 BABIP as a result of weak contact. Not encouraging.

Freddie Freeman. One DL stint already, where’d the power go? I’m sure he’ll bounce back.

Josh Rutledge. Another one with no power so far. Already had so-so OB skills, so he’s bordering on being terrible. Not so sure he can bounce back.

 

Wilson Ramos. Not winning the playing time battle and for good reason; he's just not hitting well.

Wade Davis. I’d have kept him in the pen. He’s back to his mediocre ways as a starter for KC.

 

The Ugly:

Franklin Morales. Get well soon.

 

[Fishercat]

Obviously not the point of the exercise, but here are the Top 30 in pitchers (1.0+ WAR) this year. I'll just go by rank and not list out every single number with how much they change constantly. Plus, you can laugh at how WAR has Clayton Kershaw 10th, the fallibility of small sample size, and all that jazz. I'll try and do hitters later. I didn't keep track of the teams, but it's more spread out in terms of where the pitchers were selected than I expected.

 

Fun Fact: Three teams had their SP5 make this list.

 

Pitchers

1. Anibal Sanchez (Round 5, Pick 3)

2. Felix Hernandez (Round 1, Pick 11)

3. Adam Wainwright (Round 3, Pick 24)

4. Clay Buchholz (Round 5, Pick 10)

5. Derek Holland (Round 9, Pick 23)

6. Justin Verlander (Round 1, Pick 10)

7. Max Scherzer (Round 2, Pick 16)

8. Yu Darvish (Round 2, Pick 13)

9. Matt Harvey (Round 4, Pick 3)

10. Clayton Kershaw (Round 1, Pick 5)

11. Jordan Zimmermann (Round 3, Pick 23)

12. James Shields (Round 4, Pick 16)

13. A.J. Burnett (Round 13, Pick 4)

14. Doug Fister (Round 4, Pick 2)

15. Justin Masterson (Round 9, Pick 3)

16. Hisashi Iwakuma (Round 13, Pick 23)

17. Cliff Lee (Round 3, Pick 1)

18. Madison Bumgarner (Round 1, Pick 19)

19. Jon Lester (Round 4, Pick 16)

20. Shelby Miller (Round 6, Pick 2)

21. Homer Bailey (Round 6, Pick 6)

22. Chris Sale (Round 3, Pick 3)

23. Patrick Corbin (Round 13, Pick 6)

24. Hiroki Kuroda (Round 12, Pick 19)

25. Wei-Yin Chen (Round 10, Pick 2)

26. Jake Peavy (Round 5, Pick 11)

27. C.C. Sabathia (Round 3, Pick 15)

28. Jeff Samardzija (Round 4, Pick 12)

29. Ervin Santana (Round 15, Pick 10)

30. Kyle Kendrick (Round 11, Pick 18)

31. Jhoulys Chacin (Round 12, Pick 12) (Edit: Didn't qualify on innings is how I missed him before)

Edited by Fishercat, 15 May 2013 - 03:20 PM.

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Great : Starling Marte - .863 OPS k rate down, 5 HR's 10 SB's / Carlos Gomez - 1.040 OPS 6 HR's 8 SB's great D

Good : Adrian Gonzalez - high AVG, OBP, SLG k rates down / Yan Gomes - SSS 2 HR's in 15 games, great D

As Expected : Brett Jackson - k rates down .734 OPS in AAA / Eury Perez - .791 OPS 7 SB's in AAA / Henry Rodriguez - career avg numbers in AAA / Hernan Perez - pretty good numbers in AA

Bad : Tyler Flowers - lack of power lots of K's / WMB - K's up swing rate up contact rate down, defensively up and down / Jose Iglesias - K's down ISO up, hitting a little, benched for maturity issues... / Logan Schafer - no offense coming off bench, great D

Good : Stephen Strasburg - better than his record, not ace like but not terrible / Justin Grimm - looks serviceable, k rate way up / Kyle Wilson - Lights out so far, still walks a lot but hasn't hurt him / Cody Allen - SSS looks good so far / Craig Kimbrel - not like last year but still pretty damn good

Bad : Trevor Bauer - pitching well in AAA, no command in the majors, 8 BB's/9 / Rick Porcello - hasn't looked good but may be turning it around / Kelvin Herrera - giving up too many long balls / Maikel Cleto - no command whatsoever

Injured/Good : Gordon Beckham - broke hamate bone, should be back soon / Danny Duffy - coming back from TJ

Injured/Bad : Jonny Venters - going to see Dr. Andrews / Kyle McPherson - platelet injections in elbow...

My lineup is decent as well as my defense but my pitching kind of sucks. If Duffy comes back and pitches well, and Porcello gets his head out of his ass I think I'll be ok starter wise. The back end of my pen is OK, if Herrera turns around I'll be good. Overall not bad.

Biggest disappointments have to be Bauer, WMB, and Flowers

[MakMan44]

I'm happy with a lot of my team (Kershaw especially) but I'm wondering what's wrong with Niese, Travis D'Arnaud seems to be injury prone and that scares me. Oh yeah, I'm also kicking myself for picking Melky, fuck that guy.