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Red Sox scouting SP Javier Vazquez


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#1 czar


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:25 AM

According to an industry source, the Red Sox are slated to scout right-hander Javier Vazquez when he pitches for Caguas of the Puerto Rican Winter League on Friday. Vazquez is pitching against Santurce in the third game of the playoffs for Caguas as part of the 12-game round-robin postseason tournament on the island. News of the Sox' scouting undertaking was first reported by Victor Ramos in Puerto Rico (via twitter). The veteran has been showing fastball velocity of 92-93 mph in recent workouts.


Rob Bradford

4.69 xFIP with Yankees in 2010, although velocity was down to 88.7 mph (only year of entire career below 90.5). It bounced back to 90.5 in 2011 before he retired.

If he really is touching the low-90's, there's a chance he's a marginal upgrade over Doubront.

#2 ForceAtHome

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:43 AM

I remember being surprised when Vazquez decided to retire because he was phenomenal in the second half of 2011, his final season before retiring. He definitely had something left then. After the 2011 ASB, Vazquez put up the following line:

96.1 IP, 6.88 IP/start
96 K, 9.0 K/9, 6.0 K/BB
16 BB, 1.5 BB/9
2.15 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .194 BAA,

He's 36 now, didn't pitch last year, and has some serious mileage on his arm, though. Among guys expected to pitch next year, only Andy Pettitte has more career innings pitched and Vazquez would jump to the top of the active leaderboard in strikeouts if he returned. Still, I would easily take a flyer on Vazquez since he'll command a short term deal.

Vazquez's improvement in the second half of his 2011 season corresponds to an increase in velocity that put him back into 2009 range, which was another dominant season for him (2.87 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 2.77 xFIP). If his velocity is really still hanging around 91-92 or so, he should get a really long look and hopefully a serious offer.

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Edited by ForceAtHome, 03 January 2013 - 12:46 AM.


#3 Rasputin


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:58 AM

I'm all for depth but bumping Doubront would piss me off as would blocking de la Rosa.

#4 JimBoSox9


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 01:04 AM

It's a total pipe dream for me to think that his idle 2012 means he'd be gettable for a minor league contract, right?

#5 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 01:13 AM

On a minor league contract is the only way I'd want him. As deep depth along with Rubby, he'd be fabulous; but I agree with Ras that bumping Doubront to make room for him on the Opening Day 25-man would be just teeth-grindingly pointless. There's no particular reason to think Vazquez will be a better pitcher than Doubront (or anybody else in our putative starting rotation) in 2013.

#6 Edelpeddle

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 01:15 AM

Vazquez would be an ideal 5th starter candidate if he isn't asking for too much money. He's pitched more recently than John Lackey and he's not coming off a major injury.

#7 maufman


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 06:51 AM

In one of the other threads, someone observed that free agents are looking for some combination of (a) the most money, (b) the best chance to win a ring, and (c.) the most playing time. The Sox can only offer Vazquez (a) -- which is the most important of the three factors, but probably isn't as overwhelmingly important to a guy like Vazquez who has made a ton of money playing ball and is looking for a one-year deal. I think he ends up elsewhere.

I have my doubts about Lackey being ready for Opening Day and Doubront being able to pitch 200 innings, so I'd be more receptive to signing Vazquez than a lot of folks here, even though I agree that he's not clearly better than any of the five incumbents.

#8 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:11 AM

Vazquez would be an ideal 5th starter candidate if he isn't asking for too much money. He's pitched more recently than John Lackey and he's not coming off a major injury.


Vazquez's last MLB appearance was 9/27/11, Lackey's was 9/25/11. That's barely "more recently". While coming off major surgery, Lackey is still two years younger. I find it hard to get over excited about either guy, but unless Vazquez went to the same fountain of youth that Bartolo Colon did during his year off, I don't see him as anything more than a flyer for ml depth. Certainly wouldn't count on him to make a single ML start next year.

This report of possible interest, like the Abreu workout, sounds like nothing more than Ben leaving no stone unturned.

#9 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 07:47 AM

In one of the other threads, someone observed that free agents are looking for some combination of (a) the most money, (b) the best chance to win a ring, and (c.) the most playing time. The Sox can only offer Vazquez (a) -- which is the most important of the three factors, but probably isn't as overwhelmingly important to a guy like Vazquez who has made a ton of money playing ball and is looking for a one-year deal. I think he ends up elsewhere.

I have my doubts about Lackey being ready for Opening Day and Doubront being able to pitch 200 innings, so I'd be more receptive to signing Vazquez than a lot of folks here, even though I agree that he's not clearly better than any of the five incumbents.

I'm no fan of Lackey, but I've read nothing that he won't be ready for Opening Day. Heck, they had him throwing in September. Where are you getting this, considering most pitchers are back in 12 or so months after this surgery

#10 redsoxstiff


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 10:02 AM

I have zero interest in an old war horse... I would be a lot more ready to risk another almost year...Given a legit # 1 ...

#11 JimBoSox9


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 10:15 AM

Vazquez's last MLB appearance was 9/27/11, Lackey's was 9/25/11. That's barely "more recently". While coming off major surgery, Lackey is still two years younger. I find it hard to get over excited about either guy, but unless Vazquez went to the same fountain of youth that Bartolo Colon did during his year off, I don't see him as anything more than a flyer for ml depth. Certainly wouldn't count on him to make a single ML start next year.

This report of possible interest, like the Abreu workout, sounds like nothing more than Ben leaving no stone unturned.


I have to say, I think you're underselling Vazquez quite a bit. Abreu is clearly at the end of the line physically. You can't say that about JV. He put up pretty good numbers as the season went on in 2011. He was absent from MLB in 2012 because he wanted to be, not because there were no jobs available. His age, the time off, and his track record in various leagues and divisions are all legitimate red flags, but he's not obviously cooked. At the end of the day, I'm not optimistic enough about how he'd do in Fenway at this point to spend a guaranteed rotation spot on him given the opportunity cost (I'm a fan of both Doobie and Morales in the rotation and want them to get a fair shot at holding their slots), and I think that's what it would take to get him up here. If he really is consistently and comfortably in the low 90s with his FB, though, his track record is good enough to give him a 1-year deal and expect league-average innings at minimum.

#12 czar


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 10:33 AM

There's no particular reason to think Vazquez will be a better pitcher than Doubront (or anybody else in our putative starting rotation) in 2013.


I like Doubront (a lot), but people here need to remember that he had exactly one half season better than what Javier Vazquez put up the last 6 years (aside from his Yankee stint which also had suppressed velocity). People forget that his BB% rate was jacked the second half of last year and it wasn't necessarily all an arm fatigue issue (as his FB velocity didn't decline). Additionally, his SwStr% does not correlate to his K% -- if it doesn't bounce 10+%, I'd expect the whiffs to tail off a bit as the league sees more of him.

If the "reports" are that Vazquez is "touching 92-93" then he is probably sitting around 89-90 which would make him a nice, cheap, pickup for an NL team but someone whose blocking Doubront wouldn't be worth the relatively equal production. However, I'd argue there is also a body of evidence that if Javier Vazquez is roughly Javier Vazquez circa 2011 (age included), then he's a strong bet to be better than Doubront -- the question there becomes whether or not you want to push off Doubront's development as a starter another year or take the small hit in value to accelerate that for 2014 on.


If he really is consistently and comfortably in the low 90s with his FB, though, his track record is good enough to give him a 1-year deal and expect league-average innings at minimum.


He is only a few months older than Dempster and has put up significantly better league adjusted stats over his career. If his fastball is truly in the low 90's (and sitting there), I'd expect he would crush league-average no problem, even at 36. The one historical marker that has been strongly correlated to his WAR is FB velocity.

Agree with the rest of your points.

Edited by czar, 03 January 2013 - 10:37 AM.


#13 TheoShmeo


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 10:44 AM

I like Doubront (a lot), but people here need to remember that he had exactly one half season better than what Javier Vazquez put up the last 6 years (aside from his Yankee stint which also had suppressed velocity). People forget that his BB% rate was jacked the second half of last year and it wasn't necessarily all an arm fatigue issue (as his FB velocity didn't decline). Additionally, his SwStr% does not correlate to his K% -- if it doesn't bounce 10+%, I'd expect the whiffs to tail off a bit as the league sees more of him.

If the "reports" are that Vazquez is "touching 92-93" then he is probably sitting around 89-90 which would make him a nice, cheap, pickup for an NL team but someone whose blocking Doubront wouldn't be worth the relatively equal production. However, I'd argue there is also a body of evidence that if Javier Vazquez is roughly Javier Vazquez circa 2011 (age included), then he's a strong bet to be better than Doubront -- the question there becomes whether or not you want to push off Doubront's development as a starter another year or take the small hit in value to accelerate that for 2014 on.

If the Sox are required to guaranty Vazquez a spot in the rotation as a price for signing him, I would pass on him. I assume (though don't know of course) that in reality that Vazquez would be signed without any guarantees, and that he'd end up starting in Boston if he beats out Doubront and Morales. If JF and Nieves determine that he's their best bet at five, I'm more than OK with him blocking those guys.

I like this news. I have no idea if Vazquez can succeed in Boston and the memory of him swinging his arms in frustration after Damon took him deep the second time will last forever, regardless of what happens next. And, as a somewhat related point, I wonder whether he can succeed in thte AL East. But keep kicking those tires, Ben. It takes a bunch of starters to get through the season, and who knows, Vazquez could add some value.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 03 January 2013 - 10:44 AM.


#14 maufman


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 10:53 AM

I'm no fan of Lackey, but I've read nothing that he won't be ready for Opening Day. Heck, they had him throwing in September. Where are you getting this, considering most pitchers are back in 12 or so months after this surgery


No reason to think Lackey won't be physically capable of pitching, but a lot of guys struggle with command when they first return from TJS. If Lackey pitches badly in Spring Training, he could be an extended ST candidate.

#15 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:07 PM

I like Doubront (a lot), but people here need to remember that he had exactly one half season better than what Javier Vazquez put up the last 6 years (aside from his Yankee stint which also had suppressed velocity). People forget that his BB% rate was jacked the second half of last year and it wasn't necessarily all an arm fatigue issue (as his FB velocity didn't decline). Additionally, his SwStr% does not correlate to his K% -- if it doesn't bounce 10+%, I'd expect the whiffs to tail off a bit as the league sees more of him. If the "reports" are that Vazquez is "touching 92-93" then he is probably sitting around 89-90 which would make him a nice, cheap, pickup for an NL team but someone whose blocking Doubront wouldn't be worth the relatively equal production. However, I'd argue there is also a body of evidence that if Javier Vazquez is roughly Javier Vazquez circa 2011 (age included), then he's a strong bet to be better than Doubront -- the question there becomes whether or not you want to push off Doubront's development as a starter another year or take the small hit in value to accelerate that for 2014 on. He is only a few months older than Dempster and has put up significantly better league adjusted stats over his career. If his fastball is truly in the low 90's (and sitting there), I'd expect he would crush league-average no problem, even at 36. The one historical marker that has been strongly correlated to his WAR is FB velocity. Agree with the rest of your points.


I think the thing you're forgetting is that Doubront is 25 and Vazquez is 36. A 36-year-old who hasn't pitched in a year is a very dicey bet to be better than he was the last time he pitched, or even as good. A healthy 25-year-old pitcher with about 200 big-league innings under his belt, who made some progress the previous year, is a good bet to be better the following year. He may stall out at the level he's already reached, yes, but the only way you find that out is by pitching him. It's a gamble you have to take with a young pitcher as long as he continues to earn it.

Of course if you have a chance to replace him with somebody clearly and reliably better--if the choice were, say, Doubront vs. David Price or Cole Hamels--then c'est la vie. Get what you can in trade for Doubront, or throw him in the pen, and don't look back. But when the choice is Doubront vs. a guy who is unlikely to be a whole lot better, and could well be worse, I just don't see the logic of it.

#16 someoneanywhere

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:18 PM

Let's not have paroxysms about this. It's a look in, a kick of the tires, for a possible depth signing and no more. Doubront is in the rotation. Lackey, a six gazillion per next year, is in the rotation. A signing like this is insurance, if it happens.

#17 czar


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:39 PM

I think the thing you're forgetting is that Doubront is 25 and Vazquez is 36. A 36-year-old who hasn't pitched in a year is a very dicey bet to be better than he was the last time he pitched, or even as good. A healthy 25-year-old pitcher with about 200 big-league innings under his belt, who made some progress the previous year, is a good bet to be better the following year. He may stall out at the level he's already reached, yes, but the only way you find that out is by pitching him. It's a gamble you have to take with a young pitcher as long as he continues to earn it.

Of course if you have a chance to replace him with somebody clearly and reliably better--if the choice were, say, Doubront vs. David Price or Cole Hamels--then c'est la vie. Get what you can in trade for Doubront, or throw him in the pen, and don't look back. But when the choice is Doubront vs. a guy who is unlikely to be a whole lot better, and could well be worse, I just don't see the logic of it.


It's tough to argue that Javier Vazquez (2011) wasn't substantially better than Felix Doubront (2012), especially second-half Felix Doubront. I have no qualms agreeing that Doubront's trajectory is likely upwards and Vazquez's is likely downward; however, that isn't an end-all, be-all. For example, if Doubront improves by 10% and Vazquez falls by 10% then Vazquez is still likely the better pitcher for 2013.

It's more complicated for the Red Sox because they already have a "full rotation" and pushing Vazquez into the rotation over Doubront may provide a small marginal benefit next year (let's say in fWAR), but you are also "stunting" Doubront's development and spending $X million to improve a team that might be borderline wild card contenders at best. One plus is that Doubront would be injury/suck insurance whereas right now it's questionable who that is (I'm a big fan of RDLR but others are (rightfully) skeptical that he can be an ALE starter in 2013).

I'm not advocating a serious Vazquez push unless the Sox have legitimate reasons to believe he can be a 3 WAR pitcher in the AL East (or can get him dirt cheap to play in AAA but that seems highlyunlikely). He would probably need to be sitting in the low 90's for that to happen. However, I think people are vastly underrating how good Vazquez has been the last 6 years (many of which were in the AL) because he's a) old and b) didn't pitch last year.

For context, Vazquez is only a few months older than Ryan Dempster and has routinely put up 1-1.5 WAR more than him over the last half decade or so. And most of us agree that Dempster should provide solid value next year. Even with typical age-expected regression, though, he could still be a very good pitcher in the majors.

Edited by czar, 03 January 2013 - 12:40 PM.


#18 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 01:24 PM

It's tough to argue that Javier Vazquez (2011) wasn't substantially better than Felix Doubront (2012), especially second-half Felix Doubront. I have no qualms agreeing that Doubront's trajectory is likely upwards and Vazquez's is likely downward; however, that isn't an end-all, be-all. For example, if Doubront improves by 10% and Vazquez falls by 10% then Vazquez is still likely the better pitcher for 2013.


This assumes, though, that Vazquez' 2011 performance represents a then-stable, projectable skill level. All you have to do is look at his previous year--the last time he pitched in the AL East--to see that this isn't so. In 2010 he had his worst year since 2004--the other time he pitched in the AL East. The only AL East ballpark in which he has a career OPS allowed better than .799 is Rogers Centre. He's been clobbered at the Trop (.863) and Bidet Nouveau (.874), and hit pretty hard at Camden Yards (.826) and Fenway (.799).

OTOH, there is one interesting tidbit in his stat line--probably too small a sample to mean much, but FWIW, he pitched the best baseball of his career to David Ross in Atlanta in 2009. In 55 IP (217 PA) Ross caught him to the tune of a .578 OPS allowed (best among catchers with more than 2 innings catching him) and an eye-popping 8.38 K/BB. I don't know if that's enough reason to want Vazquez here, but it makes me like having Ross on the roster even more than I already did.

#19 someoneanywhere

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 01:58 PM

It's tough to argue that Javier Vazquez (2011) wasn't substantially better than Felix Doubront (2012), especially second-half Felix Doubront. I have no qualms agreeing that Doubront's trajectory is likely upwards and Vazquez's is likely downward; however, that isn't an end-all, be-all. For example, if Doubront improves by 10% and Vazquez falls by 10% then Vazquez is still likely the better pitcher for 2013.


If your argument is that we can't attribute Doubront's second-half decline to "arm fatigue" because he was throwing just as hard, I think you need to reassess fatigue. Drop in velocity is not the first measure of fatigue. Command and control is: and that's because weakness leads to poorer mechanics, inconsistent release points, and inability to repeat delivery. The very last place to look is velo.

The guy had a pretty good, and pretty typical, first go-round as a full-time major league starter. You don't bump his development by handing the reins to Javier Vazquez. One of these two is going to be in Boston in 2014: and it ain't Javy.

#20 TheoShmeo


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 02:10 PM

If your argument is that we can't attribute Doubront's second-half decline to "arm fatigue" because he was throwing just as hard, I think you need to reassess fatigue. Drop in velocity is not the first measure of fatigue. Command and control is: and that's because weakness leads to poorer mechanics, inconsistent release points, and inability to repeat delivery. The very last place to look is velo.

The guy had a pretty good, and pretty typical, first go-round as a full-time major league starter. You don't bump his development by handing the reins to Javier Vazquez. One of these two is going to be in Boston in 2014: and it ain't Javy.

IF JF and Nieves in ST believe that Vazquez is materially better* than Doubront in 2013, do you go with Doubront regardless? Is there a working assumption here that the Sox are rather unlikely to make the playoffs in 2013, so you need to err toward Doubront if it's at all close? Or do you view 2013 so dimly that Doubront gets the nod in virtually all scenarios (barring health issues and Doubront getting totally lit up in ST).

* Better: Being defined with reference to putting the Sox in position to win games on a much more regular basis.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 03 January 2013 - 02:10 PM.


#21 redsoxstiff


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 02:16 PM

okay...ASSume that : Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Doubront
Dempster...Open and one has a rocky start ...four of five isn't too bad

Farrell isn't God...It could without too much negativity,have two that struggle...
With another(?) number one I believe the season could be very interesting...Vasquez inmvho barely fills a spot...

#22 someoneanywhere

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 02:53 PM

IF JF and Nieves in ST believe that Vazquez is materially better* than Doubront in 2013, do you go with Doubront regardless? Is there a working assumption here that the Sox are rather unlikely to make the playoffs in 2013, so you need to err toward Doubront if it's at all close? Or do you view 2013 so dimly that Doubront gets the nod in virtually all scenarios (barring health issues and Doubront getting totally lit up in ST).

* Better: Being defined with reference to putting the Sox in position to win games on a much more regular basis.


For me, I doubt that Vazquez will be materially better -- and I doubt he could "prove" that to them in spring training, or that they could be persuaded. If they were so unsure of Doubront that they would be scraping the discard/retired pile for someone to replace him, they would trade him, or perhaps would have already. He's got a ton of value: left handed, controlled, pretty decent first showing and room for upside. If Vazquez is a member of the club, he's there in case someone like Doubront has a physical or developmental setback (a la Buchholz): but clearly, I think, they are committed to letting him start 2013 in the rotation.

#23 soxfan121


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 03:53 PM

http://sonsofsamhorn...vazquez-thread/
http://sonsofsamhorn...javier-vazquez/
http://sonsofsamhorn...javier-vazquez/

Granted, time flies when you're retired or taking a year off but we've discussed Vazquez at length before. Oh, has SoSH discussed the possibility of acquiring Javier Vazquez.

Edited by soxfan121, 03 January 2013 - 03:54 PM.


#24 JimBoSox9


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Posted 03 January 2013 - 03:59 PM

http://sonsofsamhorn...vazquez-thread/
http://sonsofsamhorn...javier-vazquez/
http://sonsofsamhorn...javier-vazquez/

Granted, time flies when you're retired or taking a year off but we've discussed Vazquez at length before. Oh, has SoSH discussed the possibility of acquiring Javier Vazquez.


A.K.A. "More speculation about park effects, league/division effects, and performing under pressure than you ever wanted to read!"

#25 Edelpeddle

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 02:38 AM

Apparently our good friend Alex Cora is the GM of the team Vazquez is on in Puerto Rico. The Blue Jays are also scouting him.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/286998722875899904
link to tweet

#26 Corsi


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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:47 PM

Per @tavonsky, Javier Vazquez sitting at 93 mph, topping out at 95, for @CriollosCaguas. 6 shutout IP, 4K, 0BB, 3H (all singles).

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/287374027943727105
link to tweet

#27 bosockboy


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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:30 PM

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/287374027943727105
link to tweet


Assuming true....sign him.

#28 Sprowl


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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:00 PM

Assuming true....sign him.


Whose radar (assuming that pitchFX hasn't come to the 51st state)? Who is Tavonsky -- his agent?

I like Vasquez' changeup, which gets whiffs at any age. The rest of the malarkey? We'll see.

#29 JimBoSox9


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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:11 PM

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/287374027943727105
link to tweet


I find that impossibly hard to believe. Fan graphs has him not hitting 95 since 08: http://www.fangraphs...ion=P&pitch=FA. That would be a step up even from where he got back to in the second half of 2011.

It's still obviously encouraging regardless of the exact numbers. If he's a reasonable fascimile of what we saw in his last couple of months in MLB, no amount of league effects would stop him from being a boost to the team's incremental playoff chances. I'm almost at the point where I think it's worth getting a little funky with the roster (bye Aceves?) to bring JV on board.

#30 soxfan121


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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:26 PM

I find that impossibly hard to believe. Fan graphs has him not hitting 95 since 08: http://www.fangraphs...ion=P&pitch=FA. That would be a step up even from where he got back to in the second half of 2011.


Bartolo Colon's trainer. The only way it's believable is that PEDs or some new process/treatment is involved.

Edited by soxfan121, 04 January 2013 - 11:28 PM.


#31 Rovin Romine

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 07:47 AM

Bartolo Colon's trainer. The only way it's believable is that PEDs or some new process/treatment is involved.


Perhaps - there's also an entire year off, resting his arm? Either way, even if the current gains are real, the question is, "How long will the gains stay?"

He might make for an odd, inverted type of flyer on a pitcher. Get him early in the season, ride him for a bit, then give his rotation spot to someone else (doubront?) if he starts to falter. It would push Doubront's innings workload cap deeper into the season. I don't know how that would work with the current roster though.

#32 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 07:52 AM

Sign him, pitch him to death, let him get caught for PEDs, thank him very much, see him on his way. It happens so much there's no stigma attached anymore, so why not go for it?

#33 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 07:56 AM

He might make for an odd, inverted type of flyer on a pitcher. Get him early in the season, ride him for a bit, then give his rotation spot to someone else (doubront?) if he starts to falter. It would push Doubront's innings workload cap deeper into the season. I don't know how that would work with the current roster though.


Would Doubront really still have an innings cap (or at least one that he'd be at all likely to go over), at age 25 after a year in which he threw 161 innings?

#34 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 08:13 AM

Would Doubront really still have an innings cap (or at least one that he'd be at all likely to go over), at age 25 after a year in which he threw 161 innings?


Great point, and what would they do with Doubront in the meantime? Wedge him into an bullpen already crowded with option-less arms? Then what, piggy-back him on Vazquez's last few starts to get him stretched out? How do you decide when that is?

I think if you can sign Vazquez to a ml deal, stash him at Pawtucket for a month or so to see what he's got, you do it and see where it goes from there. If another team is more willing to give him a major league deal and a chance to make their rotation right from the get-go, good for him and good luck to them.

A major league flyer on a guy who's been out of baseball, by choice, for a year should be reserved for the teams that are a bit more desperate for guys to start games. No matter how much we might not like it, the Sox have their rotation set for now, barring injury. There won't be any spring competitions for the last spot like last year.

#35 Rovin Romine

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 09:08 AM

Would Doubront really still have an innings cap (or at least one that he'd be at all likely to go over), at age 25 after a year in which he threw 161 innings?


I thought he was reported to have been exhausted toward the end of last year. I may be mistaken though.

#36 maufman


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:13 AM

If the reports from winter ball are even half true, Vazquez is the best bet among SPs who might accept a one-year deal for short money with no guarantee of getting 30 starts if he's healthy and reasonably effective.

The question is whether the Sox are in the market for such a player. If the FO is confident that Doubront can throw 200 innings and that Lackey will be ready to go Opening Day, the answer is probably "no."

#37 someoneanywhere

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:30 AM

I thought he was reported to have been exhausted toward the end of last year. I may be mistaken though.


He hit the wall in August. And that's a good thing -- that's what you want in a young guy, so long as it is fatigue and not injury. You want him to work and manage his way through it, as he did. and come out on the other side a little stronger, as he did. (His first two starts in September were August hangovers; that is, clunkshitters. But his last four were solid.) When you talk about developing at the major-league level, this is a the pattern you like to see. Again, so long as he wasn't hurt -- and he wasn't -- the fatigue is predictable and in a perverse way a good thing in his development.

#38 P'tucket, rhymes with...


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:52 AM

If the reports from winter ball are even half true, Vazquez is the best bet among SPs who might accept a one-year deal for short money with no guarantee of getting 30 starts if he's healthy and reasonably effective.

The question is whether the Sox are in the market for such a player. If the FO is confident that Doubront can throw 200 innings and that Lackey will be ready to go Opening Day, the answer is probably "no."


If the reports from winter ball are true, Vasquez will be able to pick a team willing to run him out for thirty starts, and he'll do better than low money and short years. And even if he has to settle for a make-good contract, I think his agent should probably cut off his arm before letting him sign with a team in the AL East.

As for getting 200 from Doubront, it's probably not happening, as that would be the exception for Sox staff, not the rule. We had one guy go 200+ last year, none in 2011 and 2 in 2010.

Pass.

Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 05 January 2013 - 10:53 AM.


#39 WayBackVazquez


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Posted 05 January 2013 - 01:47 PM

If the reports from winter ball are true, Vasquez will be able to pick a team willing to run him out for thirty starts, and he'll do better than low money and short years.


As someone who obviously pays a little attention to what this guy does, I agree with this. There's a whole lot of dreaming going on in this thread. Javy said all year in 2011 he was probably going to "retire" at the end of the year. He was clearly burned out, at the end of a contract, and was only going to come back for pure fuck you money. When he wasn't given that kind of cash, he took a year off to recharge his batteries. There was never any doubt in my mind he was not done for good. There's no way he doesn't want to get to 3,000 strikeouts. He was National League Pitcher of the Month in his last effort (5-0, 0.71 era; 36:3 K:BB in 38 IP). He has a 1.92 era with 115 K and 19 BB in his last 127 innings. He's made $100 million. This guy isn't coming back for nickels.

He's going to get paid, or he won't come back.

Edited by WayBackVazquez, 05 January 2013 - 03:17 PM.


#40 Dick Pole Upside

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

If he's being coached by AC, is there any doubt that Tito and the Tribe are also sniffing around?

#41 mabrowndog


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Posted 28 January 2013 - 05:45 PM

Jim Bowden on Twitter

 

Javier Vazquez is getting right meniscus repaired on Wed by Dr. Kaplan, Marlins team ortho. Expected to be throwing 100% in 2-3 weeks





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