10 replies to this topic

[lexrageorge]

What, did the trade suddenly not happen? Or was the thread simply removed for heck of it?

[snowmanny]

What are you talking about? Why would the Red Sox trade for Hanrahan?

[lexrageorge]

http://www.boston.co...x_hoping_1.html

[AlNipper49]

I'm remote but there are reports in the mod forum of an accidental deletion. Assume it was for now, if we can dig it up we'll re-merge it into this thread.

[941827]

Not sure this is overly meaningful given the relative weakness of reliever ERA as an indicator of anything, but...

The difference between [Hanrahan's] ERA and FIP was 1.74 runs [in 2012].

What does that mean for Hanrahan’s 2013 campaign?

In 2011, five relievers with at least 50 IP had a FIP that was at least 1.5 runs higher than his ERA, and then pitched at least 35 innings the following season (Luis Ayala, Scott Downs,Alfredo Aceves, Eric O’Flaherty, Francisco Cordero).

Each of them, except for Ayala, had their ERA nearly or more than double in 2012.

http://espn.go.com/b...ewers-boost-pen

[crystalline]

Not sure this is overly meaningful given the relative weakness of reliever ERA as an indicator of anything, but...

Yes and even more simply, just by chance the probability that 4 of 5 relievers see their ERAs go up is 0.18 (binomial: 1 of 5 successes with P=0.5). And that's assuming that the author did no other pre-selection of the relievers. And assuming no bias upward because pitchers get older every year.

So there are many reasons it's not predictive. (which still means that Hanrahan has a decent chance of being worse next year just because reliever performance is so variable.)

[crystalline]

Yes and even more simply, just by chance the probability that 4 of 5 relievers see their ERAs go up is 0.18 (binomial: 1 of 5 successes with P=0.5). And that's assuming that the author did no other pre-selection of the relievers. And assuming no bias upward because pitchers get older every year, and that you're selecting pitchers that may have outperformed their mean to begin with.

So there are many reasons it's not predictive. (which still means that Hanrahan has a decent chance of being worse next year just because reliever performance is so variable.)

[Sille Skrub]

What, did the trade suddenly not happen? Or was the thread simply removed for heck of it?

We were trying to invoke a season long, don't ask/don't tell policy on Hanrahan. Failed miserably.

Carry on with discussion.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Any idea what Hanrahan is expected to earn this year?

[someoneanywhere]

Edes projects it at about $7 million.

[Edelpeddle]

Looks like Hanrahan's on the Josh Beckett offseason diet.