Jump to content


Yo! You're not logged in. Why am I seeing this ad?

Photo

5 Questions for 2013


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
17 replies to this topic

#1 TomRicardo


  • rusty cohlebone


  • 17657 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:24 AM

Lets discuss some questions going into the 2013 season:

1) Who starts at 1B?

This is the largest question going into the season. Napoli is looking less and less like the answer. Currently the Red Sox only have Salty and Gomez on the 40 man, and Travis Shaw is not close to ready in AA. There are simply not a lot of answers and will remain the biggest question going into the New Year.

2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

He is young (going to be 23 as of January 5th) but god is he awful at the plate. I think the Red Sox really botched his development blinded by his glove but at this point I am not even sure he could keep up with AA hitting. He is heading into his last option year. Do they give up and start moving moving him around the IF positions in Pawtucket or just try one more time to see if he can hit at all. Personally I think the answer to that question lies in the progress of Bogaerts in AA.

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

He has a ton of money but right now he is probably fighting for the fifth starter spot against Tazawa, Morales, De La Rosa, and Webster. Unfortunately it looks like double chin will win on default despite maybe being the weakest pitcher in the bunch. Is there a way to just forget bring up North after Spring Training is over? Maybe a chin hernia? Possibly he can step up and give us 2010 performance which would be stellar for a 5 starter.

4) How many more bullpen arms and catchers can Cherington acquire?

Seriously I am not sure.

5) Can Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury bounce back?

Buchholz already has being an ace after May. However Lester and Ellsbury need to step up for this team to have any chance at really competing. Ellsbury is a Boras client in his last contract year and Lester has Farrell again. Those are reasons for optimism as is the departure of John "Screw You Workouts" Beckett. If these three can return to form this team can compete.

#2 amfox1

  • 3308 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:47 AM

1) Who starts at 1B?

If not Napoli, I go with Gomez. I think he could be improved from his league-average 2011 performance. The 1b part of this question should be "When will Salty be traded?"

2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

I think they give Iggy until the all-star break in AAA, even if Drew or Pedroia get hurt. He needs 300 PAs, playing every day out of the spotlight. I think he'll improve with the bat enough to be passable offensively. If not, Bogaerts will be ready to move up to AAA and force the issue. Keep in mind, Iggy's floor is as a long-term major-league utility player.

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

I disagree with your premise. I think he's the #5 guy, period, assuming health. The top 5 will all come to ST with jobs, as will most of the bullpen candidates; there's not going to be a lot of auditioning in ST.

4) How many more bullpen arms and catchers can Cherington acquire?

It's not even January. At least one more arm is coming.

5) Can Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury bounce back?

"If these three can return to form this team can compete." Agreed, and I am optimistic that they will bounce back in some form.

Edited by amfox1, 27 December 2012 - 11:49 AM.


#3 HillysLastWalk

  • 3771 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 12:33 PM

Lets discuss some questions going into the 2013 season:

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

He has a ton of money but right now he is probably fighting for the fifth starter spot against Tazawa, Morales, De La Rosa, and Webster. Unfortunately it looks like double chin will win on default despite maybe being the weakest pitcher in the bunch. Is there a way to just forget bring up North after Spring Training is over? Maybe a chin hernia? Possibly he can step up and give us 2010 performance which would be stellar for a 5 starter.


What are you going to do with Lackey? Pitch him, with the expectations that he should be better than what we've seen. Personally, I think this guy gets a bad rap. His first year here, he probably wasn't 100%, and his second year he was pitching with a severe injury. Wouldn't that be the reason he had a poor season in 2011? With better health in 2013 (and potentially an up-tick in velocity from his 2011 numbers), he may surprise. He toughed it out in 2011 and his teammates love him - what's the issue?

His #1 similarity score is ... Josh Beckett. So, basically, we traded Josh Beckett (and some others), but gained (potentially) "Josh Beckett" and a whole crap-load of salary relief. I'm leading the John Lackey bandwagon: he'll have a very good season - you heard it here first!!

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 27 December 2012 - 01:02 PM.


#4 C4CRVT

  • 2355 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 12:34 PM

1) Who starts at 1B?

No way of knowing at this point.

2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

Probably not but hopefully it won't matter.

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

I'd be surprised if he isn't penciled in as #5 right from get-go. He'll get 5-6 weeks of rope if he sucks and be replaced by RDLR or Morales if he can't get his command where it needs to be.

4) How many more bullpen arms and catchers can Cherington acquire?

Well, the Giants won a WS with a great bullpen and a good but not great offense. Who knows?

5) Can Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury bounce back?

I would add several players to your list. Pedroia: the cumulative effect of his injuries have done some damage to his ability to be an elite player. Hopefully he's fully recovered and will return to put on another round of laser show. WMB- can he come back and be the powerhouse he was when he was first called up? Can Ortiz do it again- come back and produce out of the gate and be fully healed? Is the Drew from September on the A's a return to form or a SSS fluke of a player in decline? Is Kalish's shoulder really healed and can he be the player he looked like he was going to turn out to be 2 years ago (solid D corner OF with a bit of pop and good OBP).

#5 Savin Hillbilly


  • SoSH Member


  • 11196 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 12:55 PM

His first year here, he probably wasn't 100%


And he was actually pretty good. If he has that same season in 2013 it will be a definite plus, and I think most people around here would see it as such. Context and expectations have changed just a wee bit.

#6 HillysLastWalk

  • 3771 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 12:59 PM

And he was actually pretty good. If he has that same season in 2013 it will be a definite plus, and I think most people around here would see it as such. Context and expectations have changed just a wee bit.


The second half of 2010 he had a 3.38 k/bb raito and a .253/.307/.398 slash-line. I'd take that and be happy with it. Maybe there was some adjustments from that first half that he needed to make? (New team/city/health/ballpark)

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 27 December 2012 - 12:59 PM.


#7 Rovin Romine

  • 2858 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 01:36 PM

1) Who starts at 1B?

Napoli is the first choice. Second choice should be Gomez unless you trade Salty et. al. for someone. Given the tack taken thusfar, I wouldn't be surprised to see the sox try to sign Laroche (which'd be a mistake.)

2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

I basically agree with Amfox on this one. The question is more about his timetable for development with the Sox. If Boegarts comes on strong, we're better off with Iglesias in AAA as a trade chip.

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

He's a guaranteed starter. Basically he's your recovering veteran "flyer" we seem to trot out in the 5th starter spot. I do think he has a good chance to be a league average starting pitcher (a #3 type). If I recall correctly, he's had no setbacks from his TJ surgery, and he's not on any kind of "rushed" timetable like DiceK was.

4) How many more bullpen arms and catchers can Cherington acquire?

Wrong question - how many more bullpen arms *without options*. . .

5) Can Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury bounce back?

Yep. As others noted though we have a lot of question marks at nearly all positions, given the number of players having off years in 2013, and/or being injured, and/or maybe having chronic conditions. I think the rosy glasses upside of perfect health makes this a very competitive team. The perfect storm downside of recurring injuries and limited effectiveness during recovery makes it the worst team in the league.

I'd love to see somebody do a comparison, WAR based or otherwise, on our "perfect health" team v. "stuck in suck" team.

There are always random injuries, but in many ways this team seems a repeat of 2012 - will Carl recover/contribute? will Ells come back from injury? will Beckett be motivated for a big season? what's up with Gonzo's shoulder/power? Obviously, things didn't work out well for a number of players and the team sucked overall. We run that kind of risk in 2013.

#8 saintnick912


  • GINO!


  • 3473 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 02:57 PM

2. On Iglesias - I feel like he'd be a real risk to post a sub-550 OPS in the majors, so I liked the Drew signing. He sits behind Ciriaco and now Holt in my depth chart because I think 550 would really be a break-even for even top-grade defense.

3. On Lackey - I've always been somewhat negative and viewed the elbow clause as a when and not an if. But the previous post hits on what I'd expect. The typical MLB #3 slot produces a mid-4's ERA, going by a Hardball Times article that claims 4.58, may be slightly lower since the article was written in 2007. I don't think that is beyond reason to expect.

#9 TomRicardo


  • rusty cohlebone


  • 17657 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 03:10 PM

Q3 - If Lackey can give us his 2010 season, he is an incredible back of the rotation starter. And at this point the price would not be too off either. But if he starts off like 2011 Lackey, there are other pitchers who can do better and have more of a ceiling. At what point do you put Lackey to pasture with a "sore shoulder"?


2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

I basically agree with Amfox on this one. The question is more about his timetable for development with the Sox. If Boegarts comes on strong, we're better off with Iglesias in AAA as a trade chip.


I agree with the premise that Iglesias should be in AAA until Bogaerts is ready. I however wonder how much trade value he really has. I think if Bogaerts is ready in June, you start using Iglesias as a Utility Infielder in AAA moving him around with Holt and Sutton and letting Bogaert DH occasionally giving them both reps at SS as well. I am very bullish on Holt and think he could be a starting Middle Infielder.

I am also very bullish on Travis Shaw and I think he could have the potential to develop into a decent 1B (poor man's LHH Youkilis, high OBP, good fielding). At the very least he could be a decent LHH corner bench bat. I could see him, Bradley, and Bogaerts all moving up to Pawtucket before August 1st.

#10 amfox1

  • 3308 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 05:25 PM

Q3 - If Lackey can give us his 2010 season, he is an incredible back of the rotation starter. And at this point the price would not be too off either. But if he starts off like 2011 Lackey, there are other pitchers who can do better and have more of a ceiling. At what point do you put Lackey to pasture with a "sore shoulder"?


One thing you have to trust is that John Farrell will be able to diagnose whether Lackey is done or not. I give Lackey the benefit of the doubt vis-a-vis his elbow and give him a half-year at least.

I agree with the premise that Iglesias should be in AAA until Bogaerts is ready. I however wonder how much trade value he really has. I think if Bogaerts is ready in June, you start using Iglesias as a Utility Infielder in AAA moving him around with Holt and Sutton and letting Bogaert DH occasionally giving them both reps at SS as well. I am very bullish on Holt and think he could be a starting Middle Infielder.



Iglesias will not have a ton of trade value unless he hits but he would fit in with a lot of NL teams as a late-inning defensive replacement. I think your scenario moving Iglesias around the infield only comes true if they have decided he won't hit. I am less bullish on Holt than you. His lack of track record and his lack of power mean that his 2012 may have been a flash in the pan.

I am also very bullish on Travis Shaw and I think he could have the potential to develop into a decent 1B (poor man's LHH Youkilis, high OBP, good fielding). At the very least he could be a decent LHH corner bench bat. I could see him, Bradley, and Bogaerts all moving up to Pawtucket before August 1st.



Agree that Shaw, Bradley and Bogaerts could be in AAA by the trade deadline but, again, I am less bullish on Shaw. He has a swing that will be tested in the upper minors.

Edited by amfox1, 27 December 2012 - 05:25 PM.


#11 OttoC


  • SoSH Member


  • 7204 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 05:25 PM

...I am very bullish on Holt and think he could be a starting Middle Infielder....


Mightn't he get a shot in spring training at beating out Ciriaco for the utility infielder spot on the bench?

#12 TomRicardo


  • rusty cohlebone


  • 17657 posts

Posted 27 December 2012 - 05:38 PM

Mightn't he get a shot in spring training at beating out Ciriaco for the utility infielder spot on the bench?


He could but he would have to be definitely better as Ciriaco has no more options while Holt does. For a bench / depth spot, the options game becomes a lot more important. Why dump a bench player for a slight upgrade when you can keep two for depth? Drew and Pedroia have had some injury issues as well. I rather keep the younger Holt in AAA to get steady ABs while you have 27 YO Ciriaco on your bench in the major leagues. Holt can step over and start if either Drew or Pedroia get injured or you can platoon Circiaco/Holt during the injury.

Point is the value of having both probably will exceed the value of having Holt on your bench over Ciriaco.

#13 BosRedSox5


  • Stuart Smalley devotee


  • 1256 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 02:59 PM

How did Gomez get to become the darling of SOSHers everywhere? I understand some people are late bloomers, but was his .913 OPS in AAA play (Gwinnet and Pawtucket have smallish stadiums) so impressive that we should hand him an everyday job in the bigs? The Sox have their backs to the wall, but calling up Brian Daubach seems more likely than letting Gomez start the season as our everyday 1B. Hell, we could sign LaRoche, trade for Morneau, there's gotta be a dozen different things we could try before settling on Gomez.

#14 absintheofmalaise


  • too many flowers


  • 10716 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 03:35 PM

How did Gomez get to become the darling of SOSHers everywhere? I understand some people are late bloomers, but was his .913 OPS in AAA play (Gwinnet and Pawtucket have smallish stadiums) so impressive that we should hand him an everyday job in the bigs? The Sox have their backs to the wall, but calling up Brian Daubach seems more likely than letting Gomez start the season as our everyday 1B. Hell, we could sign LaRoche, trade for Morneau, there's gotta be a dozen different things we could try before settling on Gomez.

What the hell are you talking about? Why do you think that Gomez is "the darling of SOSHers everywhere?" He's been talked about in a few posts as an option because the Napoli deal is being held up and he's cheap and showed flashes of decent last year. LaRoche is not a good option because he will cost a draft pick and the slot money for that pick, if I understand the new CBA correctly. Morneau will cost prospects, which is one thing the Sox are trying to hold on to right now. Granted, if they can't get the deal done with Napoli, then LaRoche and maybe Morneau will become more serious options for the Sox, because there really aren't "a dozen different things the Sox can do", so yeah, I think Gomez should be discussed as a possible option.

#15 Jordu

  • 2029 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:27 PM

1) Who starts at 1B?

Napoli. This deal will get done. If Napoli gets hurt, Gomez can fill in. Based on his 100 ABs last year, he is the definition of a Replacement Player.

2) Can Iglesias become a Major League Starter?

Yes. In almost 800 PAs at Pawtucket, he's a .250 hitter with a .300 OBP. If he improves those numbers even a little in AAA this year, he'll start in Boston after the ASG.

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

Put him at the back end if the rotation and give him the ball every fifth day. His elbow's fixed, he's got something to prove, and he can't possibly be any worse than he was in 2011. I think he can be a 1.2 WHIP guy.

4) How many more bullpen arms and catchers can Cherington acquire?

On, I think he's done with RPs and Cs for now.

5) Can Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury bounce back?

Just a gut feeling here, but I think Ellsbury will bounce back big time. Buchholz will bounce back. I worry about Lester.

#16 Paradigm


  • juju all over his tits


  • 5871 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 07:29 PM

3) What are you going to do with Lackey?

He has a ton of money but right now he is probably fighting for the fifth starter spot against Tazawa, Morales, De La Rosa, and Webster. Unfortunately it looks like double chin will win on default despite maybe being the weakest pitcher in the bunch. Is there a way to just forget bring up North after Spring Training is over? Maybe a chin hernia? Possibly he can step up and give us 2010 performance which would be stellar for a 5 starter.


All of these guys have questions going into the year.

Tazawa is not ready to start. Plus, as I mentioned in the other thread you created about him, I'm sure most people are skeptical that a 5'11" 180lbs pitcher can handle a starter's workload.

Morales has a killer arm but I'm a little worried about his command and control. Firmly in the running, and the team has mentioned that they're bringing him to Florida as a starter. Lots of promise.

De la Rosa is coming off Tommy John, and is younger overall. Start him in Triple-A unless he looks lights-out in Spring Training, and I mean lights out, as in, everyone is calling for him in the rotation.

Webster hasn't pitched in Triple-A yet. No harm in keeping him in the minors.

I think it's between Lackey and Morales, and I give the edge to Lackey right now because of his experience and, honestly, his contract.

#17 Scott Cooper

  • 1388 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:46 PM

1. Napoli Starts at First base. I think the longer this negotiation goes on the more likely he's here.

2. Yes. He'll never hit for shit, but can probably improve a little bit. I like the Drew signing to give him one more year in AAA.

3. Like a few others that have posted, I don't think we've ever seen a healthy Lacky. I believe we will see more of the Anaheim Lackey than the two crap years in Boston.

4. You can never have enough pitching. or is it you can never have enough GOOD pitching. I like the arms they have brought in and if Bard can get his shit together this is a scary good bullpen. Probably one more arm will do it.

5. Lester - Concerned about last year and not sure what to make of it. I'm hoping that he bounces back and once again becomes the ace we thought we had. Bucholtz - Continues on his way to being a star pitcher in this league...Ellsbury bounces back and has a season somewhere between 2010 and 2011.

I'm optimistic about this team.... I like the rotation, and the Pen. WMB comes back as last year, I think we'll be competitive all year.

Of course that's what I said last year. :unsure:

#18 Savin Hillbilly


  • SoSH Member


  • 11196 posts

Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:26 PM

4. You can never have enough pitching. or is it you can never have enough GOOD pitching. I like the arms they have brought in and if Bard can get his shit together this is a scary good bullpen. Probably one more arm will do it.


Wait--are you seriously saying they need to acquire another reliever? Or has my sarcasm meter gone on the fritz yet again?




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users