The way Bogaerts has progressed, if he can show any discipline in the upper minors this year, I think he could have a cup of coffee in Boston in September and be ready to open the 2014 season in Boston. Since the talk changed in 2012 from "Bogaerts will never stick at short" to "Bogaerts might stick at short" it could end any chance of Iglesias ever being a starter.
Regardless if where is plays, if Bogaerts IS ready to open the season in 2014, I hope the Sox don't delay his arrival for service time reasons. They're not the Royals or Pirates.
Addressing the second point first, giving up a year of control to avoid finding a stopgap option for a month or two would be the height of short-sightedness. I suppose you could bring him up at the end of April 2014 -- which would preserve the extra year of control, but would likely accelerate his arbitration eligibility by a year. That's going to be a poor use of financial resources, however, unless he's the next Mike Trout. (Each year's compensation builds on the last, so a player who's a "Super Two" isn't just more expensive in year 3, but also in years 4, 5 and 6.)
Puzzling. Aviles level production for 3X the cost. Short term deal is fine, but that's the best thing you can say about all these deals, that the player won't be around long. Team talks about building from within and then blocks its most big league ready prospects. Team has spent a lot of money and has little in the way of potential impact players to show. It's an indictment of a system that can't develop or identify this type of talent, do they have to acquire a heap of 10-13M players in an attempt to get to average.
Aviles hit 255/289/409 in 2011. Drew hit 252/317/396. Drew is two years younger, and unlike Aviles, he had an identified injury that likely explains his 2012 swoon. Obviously, either guy could get injured or fall off a cliff, but Drew's floor is likely higher than Aviles's.
Drew hit 278/352/458 in 2010. Aviles hit 325/354/480 in 2008. Neither is likely to replicate those numbers in 2013, but Drew is younger and has a better chance of reaching his more recent peak than Aviles does of reaching his long-ago peak.
Therefore, Drew has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Aviles. How, then, is this a bad move? Were you so excited about Iglesias that you fear that bringing in Drew on a one-year deal is "blocking" him?
Edited by maufman, 17 December 2012 - 11:05 AM.