210 replies to this topic

[maufman]

The way Bogaerts has progressed, if he can show any discipline in the upper minors this year, I think he could have a cup of coffee in Boston in September and be ready to open the 2014 season in Boston. Since the talk changed in 2012 from "Bogaerts will never stick at short" to "Bogaerts might stick at short" it could end any chance of Iglesias ever being a starter.

Regardless if where is plays, if Bogaerts IS ready to open the season in 2014, I hope the Sox don't delay his arrival for service time reasons. They're not the Royals or Pirates.

Addressing the second point first, giving up a year of control to avoid finding a stopgap option for a month or two would be the height of short-sightedness. I suppose you could bring him up at the end of April 2014 -- which would preserve the extra year of control, but would likely accelerate his arbitration eligibility by a year. That's going to be a poor use of financial resources, however, unless he's the next Mike Trout. (Each year's compensation builds on the last, so a player who's a "Super Two" isn't just more expensive in year 3, but also in years 4, 5 and 6.)

Puzzling. Aviles level production for 3X the cost. Short term deal is fine, but that's the best thing you can say about all these deals, that the player won't be around long. Team talks about building from within and then blocks its most big league ready prospects. Team has spent a lot of money and has little in the way of potential impact players to show. It's an indictment of a system that can't develop or identify this type of talent, do they have to acquire a heap of 10-13M players in an attempt to get to average.

Aviles hit 255/289/409 in 2011. Drew hit 252/317/396. Drew is two years younger, and unlike Aviles, he had an identified injury that likely explains his 2012 swoon. Obviously, either guy could get injured or fall off a cliff, but Drew's floor is likely higher than Aviles's.

Drew hit 278/352/458 in 2010. Aviles hit 325/354/480 in 2008. Neither is likely to replicate those numbers in 2013, but Drew is younger and has a better chance of reaching his more recent peak than Aviles does of reaching his long-ago peak.

Therefore, Drew has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Aviles. How, then, is this a bad move? Were you so excited about Iglesias that you fear that bringing in Drew on a one-year deal is "blocking" him?

Edited by maufman, 17 December 2012 - 11:05 AM.

[67WasBest]

The funny thing about the team roster construction strategy for this offseason is that it seems designed to be logical, while making neither type of extreme fan happy. The "I want STARS! I want them NOW!" types are not satisfied by short-term (relatively speaking) deals to middle tier players like Napoli and Victorino, while the Prospect Fanboys can be angry that guys like Iglesias and Kalish are losing playing time to those same middle tier, proven MLB players. The roster is being patched to be functional, but exciting for absolutely nobody. It makes sense, but I'd hate to have to try to market this team.

We changed your Sox, they were stinking pretty bad!

[MikeM]

He was hurt with a badly broken ankle. Presumably the FO believes he has recovered. He got better as the season went on and had a .750 OPS in September.

Drew was still hitting at his fairly horrid pre-trade levels as late as Sept 20th, before apparently riding an 8 game hitting streak into a $10m contract.

In the grander scheme of things, i get that the readily available alternative options to Iglesias were pretty much non-existent, so it's hard for me to hate this move on the surface. But handing almost $10m to 30 year old average-at-best fielding SS, who's offense has been in an absolute nosedive these past 2 seasons, should hardly be warranting any "great move" labels here.

Not sure we wouldn't have just been better off hanging on to Aviles, and simply including somebody else in that compensation stuff, but it's only 1 year...so yeah. I'll say this though. Between Victorino and Drew, Ben seems to be keeping Theo's annual tradition of pissing away large chunks of money alive and well imo.

[OnWisc]

Addressing the second point first, giving up a year of control to avoid finding a stopgap option for a month or two would be the height of short-sightedness. I suppose you could bring him up at the end of April 2014 -- which would preserve the extra year of control, but would likely accelerate his arbitration eligibility by a year. That's going to be a poor use of financial resources, however, unless he's the next Mike Trout. (Each year's compensation builds on the last, so a player who's a "Super Two" isn't just more expensive in year 3, but also in years 4, 5 and 6.)



Aviles hit 255/289/409 in 2011. Drew hit 252/317/396. Drew is two years younger, and unlike Aviles, he had an identified injury that likely explains his 2012 swoon. Obviously, either guy could get injured or fall off a cliff, but Drew's floor is likely higher than Aviles's.

Drew hit 278/352/458 in 2010. Aviles hit 325/354/480 in 2008. Neither is likely to replicate those numbers in 2013, but Drew is younger and has a better chance of reaching his more recent peak than Aviles does of reaching his long-ago peak.

Therefore, Drew has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Aviles. How, then, is this a bad move? Were you so excited about Iglesias that you fear that bringing in Drew on a one-year deal is "blocking" him?

I agree with this. Any equivalency assumptions between Aviles and Drew essentially assume that Aviles performs more or less to expectations, and that Drew performs well below. If Drew's 2012 with Arizona (who's owner had publicly blasted Drew) is a new baseline, then yeah, he's going to underperform expectations. If, at age 30 and another offseason removed from his injury, he reverts to anything close to his career numbers, it will be an upgrade, and quite possible a significant one. And, as has been mentioned, the legitimate potential for Iglesias to put up historically bad numbers is a pretty strong argument that he needs more time in AAA.

I love this signing. I really don't see the downside.

[lexrageorge]

Do we really care if the Sox payroll for 2013 is $140M or $150M? Seriously? Neither amount puts the Sox above the luxury tax threshold, and neither amount impacts them in 2014. If Drew hits like Aviles, then yes, it's an overpay, but the problem will be the fact that Drew hits like Aviles, not the payroll impact itself.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The roster is being patched to be functional, but exciting for absolutely nobody. It makes sense, but I'd hate to have to try to market this team.

One of the problems of adding a bunch of pretty good not great players is that you can't easily absorb gigantic gaping suck holes in the lineup, so relying on Iglesias in 2013 would have been a mistake and counter to the idea of adding Napoli and Victorino.

2013: The Year of Relentlessly Pretty Good.

[Rough Carrigan]

One more voice in the positive chorus here.

I like it when you can see how the puzzle pieces all fit together. This puzzle piece fits with the Ciriaco piece already on the table and with the Iglesias and Bogaerts pieces still in the box.

[someoneanywhere]

It's about culture change. You market the culture change, and you make the fans feel invested in it. You make it part of the Fenway experience.

You change the names of Fenway Franks to Dirt Dogs.

Anything remotely resembling a submarine sandwich you insist be called and sold solely as a grinder.

You tell people who have to wait on the phone for tickets, or at the Kenmore T for a train, or in line at souvenir stands that a patient approach is the Red Sox way. You insist they develop "Plate Discipline" at concession stands.

You tell season ticket holders to hold their plans not because this year's team is any good, but because their kids are future impact season ticket holders working their way through the Sox system. The fan base must get younger, and it starts with you old geezers who hold the seats now.

Every fan should be given the chance to re-up in Red Sox Nation for 3 years and 39 bucks.

No booing. In such a huge clubouse as Fenway, that's just bound to hurt fan chemistry.

And then every homestand you choose a lucky fan to pitch in the No. 5 slot. What do you got to lose?

Edited by someoneanywhere, 17 December 2012 - 12:13 PM.

[TeddysBonefish]

With a little help from the Globe, here's the list of guys who've started for the Red Sox at SS since 2003:

The Red Sox SS, a.k.a. Hogwarts' Defense Against the Dark Arts teacher!

[JMDurron]

I should probably clarify by going on the record as saying that I like this deal, mostly because the duration is right, Drew's approach is right, and anything that gets Jose Iglesias as far away from the batter's box in Fenway Park as possible is right, IMO. This is the third or fourth consecutive deal that I have had a similar reaction to, and I'd imagine I'm not alone. An initial, emotional "meh" reaction, followed by a gradual intellectual realization that the particular signing makes sense for what the roster needs are, still leaving me neither dreading nor anticipating the 2013 campaign. It will take the usual round of ST "They're in great shape! John Yoda Farrell has fixed the pitching staff! Drew brought his brother's bat to play SS!" stories to get me excited, I'm sure.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I should probably clarify by going on the record as saying that I like this deal, mostly because the duration is right, Drew's approach is right, and anything that gets Jose Iglesias as far away from the batter's box in Fenway Park as possible is right, IMO.

This is pretty much where I'm at. I don't think this is a great deal, but I don't think it's a bad one either, and it definitely makes sense within the context of the other off season moves so far. A left handed bat with the potential to be above average on a one year make good deal that allows Iglesias to go back to Pawtucket to try and find a bat that isn't too heavy makes too much sense to not happen. I didn't think Drew would settle for one year, so I wasn't thinking about him as a realistic option. I'm glad I was wrong.

Another added benefit is that later in the year when Bogaerts is ready to move up to AAA, it gives the Sox a chance to keep getting Iglesias used to playing second base, or even third in case his future ends up being that of a utility player/super sub, should he find enough of a bat to support such a role.

I don't see anything worth hating about this deal unless you're already dead set on hating this team anyway. There are easy talking points to piss and moan about, but considering Drew's horrible injury, his 2012 should really be thrown out the window. That said, you can't ignore the injury entirely. A badly broken ankle could take his defense from average to significantly worse than that, so we'll have to wait and see what he looks like in the field. Hopefully he can hit like he did in 2011, which would offset a step back defensively and give them workable stopgap for the season. The upside with Drew is well above average, so it's a good risk on a short deal.

I'm curious to see what the next move will be.

[bosockboy]

Ben seems to be keeping Theo's annual tradition of pissing away large chunks of money alive and well imo.

It's only pissing it away if it prevented you from doing something else. None of these did that. Not the most glamorous offseason, but they made a plan and stuck to it.

[67WasBest]

It's about culture change. You market the culture change, and you make the fans feel invested in it. You make it part of the Fenway experience.

You change the names of Fenway Franks to Dirt Dogs.

Anything remotely resembling a submarine sandwich you insist be called and sold solely as a grinder.

You tell people who have to wait on the phone for tickets, or at the Kenmore T for a train, or in line at souvenir stands that a patient approach is the Red Sox way. You insist they develop "Plate Discipline" at concession stands.

You tell season ticket holders to hold their plans not because this year's team is any good, but because their kids are future impact season ticket holders working their way through the Sox system. The fan base must get younger, and it starts with you old geezers who hold the seats now.

Every fan should be given the chance to re-up in Red Sox Nation for 3 years and 39 bucks.

No booing. In such a huge clubouse as Fenway, that's just bound to hurt fan chemistry.

And then every homestand you choose a lucky fan to pitch in the No. 5 slot. What do you got to lose?

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The Beltre make good deal.....a weapon in the Boras playbook. A slight overpay but for one year who cares, with our financial flexibility.

Being LH adds some nice balance also.

Based on what? I apologize - not picking on you but people throw this term around in every thread and my view is its not only misused but abused.

Regarding Drew, its a great signing given their need for competent major league shortstop and the contract carries little risk. Their slogan for the season should be "The 2013 Boston Red Sox - come see us catch lightning in a bottle!"

[Edelpeddle]

This one's a headscratcher. I don't see any hidden value here or abnormalities in his statistics that suggest he'll be any better next year. Seems like a pure cross your fingers move and hope he reverts to the player he was 4+ years ago.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This one's a headscratcher. I don't see any hidden value here or abnormalities in his statistics that suggest he'll be any better next year. Seems like a pure cross your fingers move and hope he reverts to the player he was 4+ years ago.

No anomalies? Like, perhaps a broken ankle that made him miss half the season?

[Bigpupp]

This one's a headscratcher. I don't see any hidden value here or abnormalities in his statistics that suggest he'll be any better next year. Seems like a pure cross your fingers move and hope he reverts to the player he was 4+ years ago.

He doesn't have to be the player he was 4 years ago to have value to this team. He only needs to be better than what Iglesias is, which should be no problem.

[bosockboy]

Not too dissimilar from the injury-plagued couple of seasons Bill Mueller had before Theo scooped him up.

[The Gray Eagle]

Bill James Handbook projections for 2013:

Drew: 252/325/411, .320 wOBA

Aviles: 267/300/409, .307 wOBA

Iglesias: 240/285/283, .259 wOBA

Ciriaco: 268/286/354, .277 wOBA

Then consider handedness, age, the makeup of the rest of the lineup, and the home ballparks each player had last season (that were presumably part of their 2013 projection.)

Drew: will be 30 in March, LHH, career 274/339/445 vs. RHP. Hit lousy last year overall, played a lot in Oakland, a lousy hitter's park. Was coming off a serious injury in 2012-- has his range come all the way back? Defense has been bad since the injury. If the ankle is still limiting his range, he could be poor defensively. If it's all the way back, he should be solid defensively. Could be a bust if he doesn't have the range back and hits like he did last year. Will be a very solid player if he hits and fields like he has for most of his career.

Aviles: will be 32 in March, RHH, career 269/294/386 vs. RHP. Put up a .282 OBP last season in a great hitter's park. Getting to the age where he might lose some range at SS. Upside would be that he continues to field as well as he did last season, and doesn't face many RHPs. If he hits and fields like he has most of his career, he's an outmaker who isn't that great defensively.

Iglesias: turns 23 next month. Can't hit at all yet. Has one more year to spend in AAA.

Ciriaco: utility IF. Can't get on base. Was surprisingly decent for a SS last year though, and is 299/319/406 in 312 major league PAs. Is a utility IF though.

Drew is a solid gamble on a one-year deal, especially compared to the alternatives. If his defense comes back decently and he hits near his projections, he'll be very solid, and his LH bat fits much better with the rest of the lineup. There's the risk of him being a bust though.

Edited by The Gray Eagle, 17 December 2012 - 01:18 PM.

[pokey_reese]

This move seems pretty unlikely to hurt, and will help us stay competitive in the short term if Iglesias isn't ready to hit his way into the starting job. The reason that this deal is a good one to me is the 'if' there. Someone already mentioned upthread that he wasn't signed to be a guaranteed starter, but this gives us a guy who can participate in the ST playoff for SS.

Maybe Iglesias reaps huge rewards from spending his offseason hitting the weights with Pedroia at API. It wouldn't be that strange for a guy to put on 5-10 pounds of muscle and see some better results at the plate. It's easier to get stronger than to suddenly develop hand-eye coordination, or quick wrists, which every scout always said Iglesias had. I am hopeful that he could turn himself into a .625 OPS guy at the major league level.

But maybe he can't. If he doesn't show up and rake, you can plug Drew in and feel ok about what you are getting, and if he is healthy, you actually get a pretty good shortstop out of it for a year. This signing basically just diversifies out SS portfolio, giving us a better chance of getting an upside than just handing the keys to a guy who might not be ready. We doubled our chances of getting a decent-good season out of our 9-hitter, without giving up anything but one year of JH's money.

[Andrew]

That some the JD Drew Haters may get their panties in a bunch over this is just the cherry on top of the sundae.

This is one of the best demonstrations of just how clueless some people are, as the Drew brothers similarity as baseball players begins and ends with their name. They couldn't be more different in approach as hitters, at least as far as the "passive plate discipline" that JD held which enraged so many people.

[Drek717]

The funny thing about the team roster construction strategy for this offseason is that it seems designed to be logical, while making neither type of extreme fan happy. The "I want STARS! I want them NOW!" types are not satisfied by short-term (relatively speaking) deals to middle tier players like Napoli and Victorino, while the Prospect Fanboys can be angry that guys like Iglesias and Kalish are losing playing time to those same middle tier, proven MLB players. The roster is being patched to be functional, but exciting for absolutely nobody. It makes sense, but I'd hate to have to try to market this team.

I would categorize myself as a "prospect fanboy" type and to be honest, I greatly prefer the idea of stop gaps filling in while Kalish and Iglesias get more work in at AAA. They could both use it and it only pushes their arbitration years and free agency further out. Hell, I'd even prefer letting Nava be Gomes' platoon mate over Kalish, as Nava has a nice recent sample against RHP in the majors, looked comfortable in LF defensively last season, and buys Kalish time to see ABs every day against lefties and righties.

[MikeM]

It's only pissing it away if it prevented you from doing something else. None of these did that. Not the most glamorous offseason, but they made a plan and stuck to it.

When we are out there spending $50m total and $24m in 2012 on Victorino/Drew, both coming off mediocre-to-bad 2012 seasons and with seriously presented questions of decline, it makes you wonder. I mean damn, at what point does the upside in spending the same amount of money on the more ideal option/s that would field a better team now start factoring into the overall equation here, instead of choosing to solely focus on the downside of offering these elite guys that additional "throw away" year?

Like i said, i can't hate this move, but i am left feeling pretty meh on what it possibly suggests about a Ben with money in his pocket. People are seeing what they want to see in Drew imo, and not necessarily what's actually there. Is he really that much of a better overall bridge and production bet then say...signing Alex Gonzalez to a minor league contract? I don't think so.

[lexrageorge]

When we are out there spending $50m total and $24m in 2012 on Victorino/Drew, both coming off mediocre-to-bad 2012 seasons and with seriously presented questions of decline, it makes you wonder. I mean damn, at what point does the upside in spending the same amount of money on the more ideal option/s that would field a better team now start factoring into the overall equation here, instead of choosing to solely focus on the downside of offering these elite guys that additional "throw away" year?

Like i said, i can't hate this move, but i am left feeling pretty meh on what it possibly suggests about a Ben with money in his pocket. People are seeing what they want to see in Drew imo, and not necessarily what's actually there. Is he really that much of a better overall bridge and production bet then say...signing Alex Gonzalez to a minor league contract? I don't think so.

What people see in Drew is the following:

0.836, 0.748, 0.810, 0.713, 0.657 (injured)

A 0.713 OPS is not only a substantial improvement over the SS position last year, but also a substantial improvement over whatever Alex Gonzalez is going to offer you. And the upside is certainly higher. 29 is awfully young for a decline; sometimes players do have injury years (think Ellsbury last year).

[Savin Hillbilly]

Alex Gonzalez will be 36 next year. His OPS+ for the past four seasons is 82, and his OBP over that span is .284.

Stephen Drew will be 30 next year. His OPS+ for the past four seasons is 97, and his OBP is .328.

So we want Gonzalez instead of Drew.....why?

[glennhoffmania]

Since when did people start getting worked up over a 1 year, $9m deal to a guy coming off a serious injury looking to show the league he's worth a long term deal next offseason? I don't understand all of the angst over this. Drew has shown that he can be a pretty good player, he's clearly been better than Aviles over their careers, and it's not like they have another viable option at SS. Yet using up approximately 5% of the budget on him is really upsetting people? I don't get it.

[E5 Yaz]

This is a solid stop-gap move. Iglesias starts in Pawtucket. If he shows some semblance of improving his offense, Drew is dealt to a contender in July. If not, they hold onto Drew and change shortstops again in '14

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Also keep in mind that if Drew does bounce back, he could be worth a qualifying offer next year which might net the team a draft pick. Maybe we'll see Ben looking to pick up a player like this every year or so in the hope that they generate a pick on their way out. It would sort of be the new version of using the old arb system to increase picks in the draft.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 17 December 2012 - 02:09 PM.

[maufman]

Also keep in mind that if Drew does bounce back, he could be worth a qualifying offer next year which might net the team a draft pick. Maybe we'll see Ben looking to pick up a player like this every year or so in the hope that they generate a pick on their way out. It would sort of be the new version of using the old arb system to increase picks in the draft.

Does the new CBA allow the player and club to agree that no QO be extended at the end of the contract? If it does, I would imagine that a club's willingness to waive that right would often be a decisive consideration for a player signing a one year, "make good" deal.

I agree with you on Drew, though I think you'd have to be prepared for him to accept the offer. Drew would have to put up one hell of a bounce-back season for a team to be ready to part with a first-round pick for the right to sign him to a multi-year deal.

[radsoxfan]

Good deal, especially considering the team needs and available options at SS. Barring injury, hard to see how Drew will be less valuable than Iglesias in 2013. His ability as a LHH is a nice bonus also.

The one year contract is obviously a plus, and if the team is out of it, perhaps Drew nets the team a prospect at the deadline.

Another added benefit is that later in the year when Bogaerts is ready to move up to AAA, it gives the Sox a chance to keep getting Iglesias used to playing second base, or even third in case his future ends up being that of a utility player/super sub, should he find enough of a bat to support such a role.

Unless the Sox are really down on Bogaerts' chances to stick at SS, Iglesias has pretty much been squeezed out of a starting job for the Red Sox. With Pedoria and Middlebrooks seemingly the clear 2b/3b options for the next few years, and Bogaerts staring a MLB arrival sometime in 2014, Iglesias is looking like a utility IF (at most) for this team.

If Iglesias starts hitting at AAA, he may force himself into the SS mix. And perhaps Bogaerts could always move to OF if need be. But in my opinion the 3 most likely options for Iglesias are now (in no particular order).

1) utility IF
2) trade bait
3) busted prospect

Not exactly what I think most were expecting a year or two ago.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Does the new CBA allow the player and club to agree that no QO be extended at the end of the contract? If it does, I would imagine that a club's willingness to waive that right would often be a decisive consideration for a player signing a one year, "make good" deal.

I agree with you on Drew, though I think you'd have to be prepared for him to accept the offer. Drew would have to put up one hell of a bounce-back season for a team to be ready to part with a first-round pick for the right to sign him to a multi-year deal.

If he accepts the qualifying offer and the team doesn't really want him because Iglesias or Bogaerts is ready to start full time, then I think the Sox have a decent trade chip on their hands. An improved and healthy Drew on a one year deal is bound to be of value to some team that needs a SS (e.g. look at the lengths the DBacks went just to net a middling SS prospect). Maybe the return for him won't be exactly equivalent to a #40ish pick in that case, but they could probably get something useful. That would be the risk of offering the qualifying offer...gambling that they can turn him into a prospect one way or another, whether it's one already in someone's system or one in the 2014 draft.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Does the new CBA allow the player and club to agree that no QO be extended at the end of the contract? If it does, I would imagine that a club's willingness to waive that right would often be a decisive consideration for a player signing a one year, "make good" deal.

I agree with you on Drew, though I think you'd have to be prepared for him to accept the offer. Drew would have to put up one hell of a bounce-back season for a team to be ready to part with a first-round pick for the right to sign him to a multi-year deal.

If he's worth making a qualifying offer to, I would assume that means they've decided he's worth keeping on the roster if he accepts. It's a risk, but what's the worst case scenario if he does say yes? They have a crunch between him and Bogaerts and either give Bogaerts one more year to develop in the minors or, as Red(s)HawksFan says, they have a trade chip they can turn into something useful. I think it's a good gamble if he bounces back.

As for teams being unwilling to part with a draft pick to sign him to a multi-year deal, I guess that depends on the nature of the bounce back. If Drew puts up a 5 WAR (f or r, take your pick) season, I doubt teams will mind giving up that value. If he's a 2.5 WAR player, he's probably not worth making the offer to in the first place. Of course, if he does bounce back, he'll probably be somewhere between the two and where that breaking point is can be a bit fuzzy. Of course, that's why I'm talking about baseball here and Ben Cherington is being paid to talk about it in an office with the rest of the organization. Hopefully, in that scenario, he evaluates Drew properly and makes the right call.

I just thought it was worth noting the possibility that Drew could present value on more than just the "upgrade over Iglesias" front.

[Drek717]

Does the new CBA allow the player and club to agree that no QO be extended at the end of the contract? If it does, I would imagine that a club's willingness to waive that right would often be a decisive consideration for a player signing a one year, "make good" deal.

I was looking over the CBA just a couple days ago (for the day that compensation no longer is required - Rule 4 draft) and I'm pretty sure it explicitly said that no team or player could agree to not apply the QO/not accept the QO respectively.

I agree with you on Drew, though I think you'd have to be prepared for him to accept the offer. Drew would have to put up one hell of a bounce-back season for a team to be ready to part with a first-round pick for the right to sign him to a multi-year deal.

Sure, but shortstop is a high need position and if Drew puts up a season worth considering the qualifying offer (say ~.750 OPS with solid D) then the ~$13M/1 year deal the QO requires wouldn't be hard to move at all.

[Rasputin]

If Iglesias starts hitting at AAA, he may force himself into the SS mix. And perhaps Bogaerts could always move to OF if need be. But in my opinion the 3 most likely options for Iglesias are now (in no particular order).

1) utility IF
2) trade bait
3) busted prospect

Not exactly what I think most were expecting a year or two ago.

I think Iglesias would make a pretty damn good utility infielder. He's good enough defensively that he'd be an upgrade over almost any SS or 2B and he's fast enough that he's a reasonable pinch runner.

We need someone to play SS and Drew is likely to be better than Iglesias with some chance to be a significant offensive presence.

[Edelpeddle]

He doesn't have to be the player he was 4 years ago to have value to this team. He only needs to be better than what Iglesias is, which should be no problem.

You're acting like the only possible choices we had to choose from were Stephen Drew for $9.5 million or Jose Iglesias. There are plenty of other shortstops out there who I believe could have been a better, cheaper alternative. Jamey Carroll would have been an ideal trade candidate.

I hope he proves me wrong and he hits well playing in the AL East, but I'm not as sold on this move as I was on Beltre because if he doesn't hit, he doesn't bring gold glove caliber defense to the table.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 17 December 2012 - 05:30 PM.

[LondonSox]

Hard to complain about a one year signing period, they can also likely move him at the deadline if he's playing well and the Sox aren't in contention.
I feel that way about several deals, and I like that idea. If you are right about your scouting then you are adding assets with little long term downside.

However, more generally I'm now a little lost on what this team is trying to do. It seems the team on paper is a LONG way off the Jays and almost certainly behind the Rays too, and probably the yankees.
In which case what's the point. To me if you can look past the risks of another disappointing season, 2014 is a very interesting window. Everything we know about the Yankees suggest a MAJOR down year in 2014. There are a number of players you need to make decision on soon. Iglesias and Kalish being at the top.
There needs to be decisions on these guys and punting them for average players isn't winning nor developing. So what is the goal? To be good enough to be in vague contention?

I also think owners are a little behind the times on fan knowledge, fans are (IMO) able to handle the idea of rebuilding is there seems to be a real plan to do so. Plus fans LOVE seeing prospects turn into stars on their watch. The affection to them is higher.

There must be an argument that giving talented kids a shot and getting answers is important as having a not special guy like Victorino. Also with the shocking (to me) cheap value of prospects in deals going down I would be acquiring prospects. I would be happy to have two back to back high drafts, LOAD the farm and try these 'are they ready' guys out.

I don't get a spend enough to be average policy.

[Seabass177]

You're acting like the only possibly choices we had to choose from were Stephen Drew for $9.5 million or Jose Iglesias. There are plenty of other shortstops out there who I believe could have been a better, cheaper alternative. Jamey Carroll would have been an ideal trade candidate.

Jamey Carroll has a non-monetary cost to acquire. That's the beauty of Drew - it's just money. Money that the FO presumably has to move around in wheelbarrows.

The overarching theme of this offseason has been to acquire the best talent that the team can while not surrendering anything other than money to acquire that talent. Stephen Drew was the best SS available that fits that theme. Getting him on a one year deal is exactly what this team should be trying to do.

[Bigpupp]

You're acting like the only possibly choices we had to choose from were Stephen Drew for $9.5 million or Jose Iglesias. There are plenty of other shortstops out there who I believe could have been a better, cheaper alternative. Jamey Carroll would have been an ideal trade candidate.

I'm not factoring in the money at all, and I don't you should either. It's 1 year. Even if he busts he can be released with zero harm done whatsoever.

I also completely disagree that there are "plenty of shortstops" who could be better. In your own example, Jamey Carroll is projected by Bill James to have a wOBA of 20 points less than Drew (not to mention he would also cost a prospect).

[maufman]

Hard to complain about a one year signing period, they can also likely move him at the deadline if he's playing well and the Sox aren't in contention.
I feel that way about several deals, and I like that idea. If you are right about your scouting then you are adding assets with little long term downside.

However, more generally I'm now a little lost on what this team is trying to do. It seems the team on paper is a LONG way off the Jays and almost certainly behind the Rays too, and probably the yankees.
In which case what's the point. To me if you can look past the risks of another disappointing season, 2014 is a very interesting window. Everything we know about the Yankees suggest a MAJOR down year in 2014. There are a number of players you need to make decision on soon. Iglesias and Kalish being at the top.
There needs to be decisions on these guys and punting them for average players isn't winning nor developing. So what is the goal? To be good enough to be in vague contention?

I also think owners are a little behind the times on fan knowledge, fans are (IMO) able to handle the idea of rebuilding is there seems to be a real plan to do so. Plus fans LOVE seeing prospects turn into stars on their watch. The affection to them is higher.

There must be an argument that giving talented kids a shot and getting answers is important as having a not special guy like Victorino. Also with the shocking (to me) cheap value of prospects in deals going down I would be acquiring prospects. I would be happy to have two back to back high drafts, LOAD the farm and try these 'are they ready' guys out.

I don't get a spend enough to be average policy.

Respectfully, I think your perspective would be different if you were closer to the epicenter of Red Sox Nation.

The past three years have essentially exhausted the reservoir of goodwill that a franchise would hope to have at the front edge of a rebuilding program. This year's club doesn't need to win the division, or even a playoff spot, but if they aren't playing meaningful games in early September, the owners are going to feel it in the wallet -- which, in turn, will affect their willingness to invest in on-field talent, creating a vicious cycle. In sum, winning 85 games in 2013 is a necessary part of the club's long-term plan to get back to the days when an 85-win season counted as a disappointment.

Also, a team that is built to win 85 games probably will have something like a 1-in-4 chance of winning 90, which is probably good enough for a playoff spot. At that point, anything can happen.

[Edelpeddle]

Jamey Carroll has a non-monetary cost to acquire. That's the beauty of Drew - it's just money. Money that the FO presumably has to move around in wheelbarrows.

The overarching theme of this offseason has been to acquire the best talent that the team can while not surrendering anything other than money to acquire that talent. Stephen Drew was the best SS available that fits that theme. Getting him on a one year deal is exactly what this team should be trying to do.

We have three possibly four catchers on the roster and 9-11 relievers. We can't go in to the season with all of them, why not package them for similar caliber shortstop, then use the $9.5 million for a starter or a lefthanded first baseman? 2 WAR shortstops are a dime a dozen. I doubt anyone would give Yunel Escobar or Mike Aviles $9.5 million on the open market.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You're acting like the only possible choices we had to choose from were Stephen Drew for $9.5 million or Jose Iglesias. There are plenty of other shortstops out there who I believe could have been a better, cheaper alternative. Jamey Carroll would have been an ideal trade candidate.

Ah, but there's the rub. They seem disinclined to make any trades that are going to cost prospects. Carroll is not a shortstop, he's a utility player who's strongest defensive position appears to be 2B or 3B. He also hits right-handed, something the Sox have enough of. Drew hits left-handed and is leaps and bounds a better hitter than Carroll. Can't see how he is a viable alternative to Drew, let alone an ideal alternative.

[Edelpeddle]

I'm not factoring in the money at all, and I don't you should either. It's 1 year. Even if he busts he can be released with zero harm done whatsoever.

I also completely disagree that there are "plenty of shortstops" who could be better. In your own example, Jamey Carroll is projected by Bill James to have a wOBA of 20 points less than Drew (not to mention he would also cost a prospect).

Who said a shortstop would cost a prospect? Why not trade one of our 3/4 catchers and one of our extra bullpen arms without options for a shortstop?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Who said a shortstop would cost a prospect? Why not trade one of our 3/4 catchers and one of our extra bullpen arms without options for a shortstop?

Who is this shortstop and which catcher or reliever is that player's current team going to want? You suggested Carroll already, and I don't see the Twins as being all that interested in Saltalamacchia or a fungible reliever.

[Rasputin]

Who said a shortstop would cost a prospect? Why not trade one of our 3/4 catchers and one of our extra bullpen arms without options for a shortstop?

Because the other team has to agree.

Because we don't want to trade Ross, Napoli, or Lavarnway, just Salty.

Because we're going to need every damn pitcher we can get.

[Cellar-Door]

Who said a shortstop would cost a prospect? Why not trade one of our 3/4 catchers and one of our extra bullpen arms without options for a shortstop?

Who is a better SS than Drew available on a team that need a catcher?
Jamey Carroll isn't better.
Most teams don't have 2 good SS.

[Max Venerable]

Like this a lot. Drew's marginal difference offensively over Iglesias might be similar to the difference between say Kalish/Gomes/Nava versus Hamilton in LF. Only he costs $115 Million and 4 years less.

[Super Nomario]

However, more generally I'm now a little lost on what this team is trying to do. It seems the team on paper is a LONG way off the Jays and almost certainly behind the Rays too, and probably the yankees.
In which case what's the point. To me if you can look past the risks of another disappointing season, 2014 is a very interesting window. Everything we know about the Yankees suggest a MAJOR down year in 2014. There are a number of players you need to make decision on soon. Iglesias and Kalish being at the top.
There needs to be decisions on these guys and punting them for average players isn't winning nor developing. So what is the goal? To be good enough to be in vague contention?

I also think owners are a little behind the times on fan knowledge, fans are (IMO) able to handle the idea of rebuilding is there seems to be a real plan to do so. Plus fans LOVE seeing prospects turn into stars on their watch. The affection to them is higher.

There must be an argument that giving talented kids a shot and getting answers is important as having a not special guy like Victorino. Also with the shocking (to me) cheap value of prospects in deals going down I would be acquiring prospects. I would be happy to have two back to back high drafts, LOAD the farm and try these 'are they ready' guys out.

You seem to be suggesting we don't learn anything about Kalish or Iglesias by sending them to AAA. Bill James established about 30 years ago that minor league statistics, properly translated, are just as predictive as major league stats. So the choice isn't between a) throwing Kalish and Iglesias to the wolves and b) not getting any "answers" about them. The Sox can have their cake and eat it too, putting a team with a better chance to win on the field in 2013 and monitoring the progress of Kalish and Iglesias at Pawtucket to see how they fit into the 2014-and-beyond picture.

I'm all for giving prospects a chance, but I think they need to earn their chances. Both Kalish and Iglesias have struggled at AAA to date. It seems sensible to me to let them prove they can perform at that level before just handing them major league jobs.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't get a spend enough to be average policy.

That's not the policy, though. The team is clearly looking for bounce back candidates to fill in gaping holes in the roster with, at worst, average major league talent in the hope that while waiting for the kids to be ready, they can steal a playoff berth or two. The front office is not putting a team together with the goal of being average. They're building around the core they have in place for the next two years and protecting the farm.

This team could certainly end up in the 75-80 win range and leave us with another disappointing season. They could also win enough games to snatch a wild card spot if some of these moves pan out well.

They've put together a team that will grind down pitchers at the plate, play good to great defense at 2B, CF, RF (or left if Victorino is moved there by another trade or signing), and 3B with average defense at SS and has a bunch of moveable parts or eatable contracts if a prospects forces an issue later in the year. I can understand not being crazy excited about the 2013 season, but claiming to not understand what the team is doing this off season? It seems pretty obvious and has been discussed all over the board.

[SoxLegacy]

I'm on board--low cost, low risk, potentially high reward move.

[Cellar-Door]

I don't get the complaining about signing guys who are "only" a bit above league average. If you put together a lineup of better than league average guys with one or two "stars" it's likely one of the best teams in the league. The Red Sox are almost certainly going to be a top 10 offense next year with these signings, the problem is going to be in the starting pitchers. They added probably the 3rd best pitcher in the free agent class in a low risk deal. I think it was an excellent offseason, they avoided the big risk in Greinke and Hamilton and drastically improved their team, all without losing any draft picks or trading prospects. They also set themselves up in a nice position to make trades from C or the bullpen as the rest of FA and the start of the season shake out.
It also gives them money to spend next year which looks to have a pretty deep market for starters.