While there is still time in the offseason and more transactions will certainly be made for the Red Sox and the rest of the AL East, I thought we could start talking about biggest threats the Red Sox face this season.
Baltimore Orioles
Transcations:
Nate McClouth - signed one year deal worth $2 mil
Traded Robert Andino (INF) to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (OF)
Free Agent Losses:
Mark Reynolds (Cle)
Free Agents:
Joe Saunders, Endy Chavez, Bill Hall, Nick Johnson, Jim Thome, Randy Wolf
New York Yankees
Transactions:
Hiroki Kuroda - signed one year deal worth $15 mil
Mariano Rivera- signed one year deal worth $10 mil
Andy PettiTTe- signed one year deal worth $12 mil
Kevin Youkilis- signed one year deal worth $12 mil
Brett Gardner - signed one year deal worth $2.8 mil
Free Agent Losses:
Eric Chaves (ARI), Russell Martin (PIT), Andruw Jones (Japan)
Free Agents:
Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher, Ichiro Suzuki, Raul Ibanez, Derek Lowe, Freddy Garcia, Pedro Feliciano
Tampa Bay Rays
Transactions:
Traded James Shields & Wade Davis for Wil Meyers, Jake Ordorizzi and two other prospects
Traded Derek Dietrich (INF) for Yunel Escobar
James Loney- signed one year deal worth $2 mil
Joel Peralta- signed two year deal worth $6 mil
Free Agent Losses:
BJ Upton (ATL), Jeff Keppinger (CHI-AL)
Free Agents:
Kyle Farnsworth, JP Howell, Carlos Pena, Luke Scott
Toronto Blue Jays
Transactions:
Traded Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafani & Jeff Mathis for Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio & catcher John Buck
Melky Cabrera- signed two year deal worth $16 mil
Maicer Izturis- signed three year deal worth $10 mil
Free Agent Losses:
Free Agents:
Jason Frasor, Kelly Johnson, Brandon Lyon, Carlos Villanueva, Omar Vizquel
Who do you guys think is Boston's biggest threat? Where do you think they rank among these four teams?
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AL East Competition Analysis
Started by
AK_
, Dec 13 2012 02:05 PM
8 replies to this topic
#2
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- 232 posts
Posted 13 December 2012 - 02:29 PM
Honestly? The Yankees will be the team to beat. Don't ask me how I know that ( other than the fact they win the division every year). The Rays are competitors every year because the have excellent young pitching. They did lose Sheilds though so who knows. Offense still looks weak even with Myers. The Blue Jays have been obviously active with their blockbuster trade w/ the Marlins. But w/ the exception of Reyes all those guys underperformed last season. So who knows. And Baltimore? I look at that lineup and pitching staff and still can't figure out how they did it. Anyways you can take it to the bank. PettiTTe and kuroda will win 20 games each and Youk will get the MVP. But we will have an AWESOME clubhouse atmosphere.
#3
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- 1,681 posts
Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:16 PM
With the exception of the Blue Jays, every other team in the AL East looks weaker.
Health alone improves the Red Sox at least 10 games. An improved bullpen, we think, and if Lester, Buchholz can Lackey can pitch close to where they were in their best years could make this a 90 W team. I wont even mention intangibles like getting rid of the worst manager in Red Sox history and what should be a more positive clubhouse atmosphere (guess I mentioned it though) . Obviously, the big hole at 1B needs to be filled, hopefully with Napoli or Larouche.
This could be the most balanced division in baseball so wins will be tougher to come by than in years past when you could count on beating up the Orioles and Blue Jays in what was almost 20% of the schedule.
Health alone improves the Red Sox at least 10 games. An improved bullpen, we think, and if Lester, Buchholz can Lackey can pitch close to where they were in their best years could make this a 90 W team. I wont even mention intangibles like getting rid of the worst manager in Red Sox history and what should be a more positive clubhouse atmosphere (guess I mentioned it though) . Obviously, the big hole at 1B needs to be filled, hopefully with Napoli or Larouche.
This could be the most balanced division in baseball so wins will be tougher to come by than in years past when you could count on beating up the Orioles and Blue Jays in what was almost 20% of the schedule.
#4
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- 418 posts
Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:31 PM
Honestly? The Yankees will be the team to beat. Don't ask me how I know that ( other than the fact they win the division every year). The Rays are competitors every year because the have excellent young pitching. They did lose Sheilds though so who knows. Offense still looks weak even with Myers. The Blue Jays have been obviously active with their blockbuster trade w/ the Marlins. But w/ the exception of Reyes all those guys underperformed last season. So who knows. And Baltimore? I look at that lineup and pitching staff and still can't figure out how they did it. Anyways you can take it to the bank. PettiTTe and kuroda will win 20 games each and Youk will get the MVP. But we will have an AWESOME clubhouse atmosphere.
Youk iis burnt toast. Step away from the cliff.
#5
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- 158 posts
Posted 30 December 2012 - 07:28 AM
Youk iis burnt toast. Step away from the cliff.
Wade Boggs 1992.
#6
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- 171 posts
Posted 01 January 2013 - 09:43 PM
I rank 'em:
1. Toronto (92-70)
2. Tampa Bay (90-72)
3. New York (85-77)
4. Boston (78-84)
5. Baltimore (75-87)
Toronto's the best team on paper, with two #1 pitchers (Dickey & Johnson) and some great additions like Reyes and Cabrera. Plus, they dealt with a lot of injuries last year. If they have luck with health, I could see them winning 95.
Tampa had key injuries, too, and if Longoria had played 150 games, they probably would have beaten out Baltimore for a playoff spot. Shields was pretty valuable, but they have the pitching depth to make up for his absence. The key, I think, is Myers. Can he contribute at above-average production in 2013?
I think there's a big gap after Tampa. The loss of Martin and Swisher is huge for New York. A-Rod looks like toast, Teixeira's been in steady decline, and Granderson's declining OPS matches his declining defense. The team looks old, and the organization -- for the first time in my memory -- seems reluctant to spend its way out of an inevitable aging curve.
Despite all the signings, I think Boston will be lucky to win half its games, even with its signings. Victorino will likely be a step down from 2012 Ross, and Napoli from Gonzalez, and those are offset by Dempster and Drew. The pen's better, and it's likely we'll see improved production from center and third, but unless Buchholz and Lester hit career highs and Lackey's league average (I'm not a believer: a 34-yo coming off of elbow surgery?), can you see more than a 10-game improvement? Me neither.
Baltimore had a lot of luck last year. They crash back to reality.
1. Toronto (92-70)
2. Tampa Bay (90-72)
3. New York (85-77)
4. Boston (78-84)
5. Baltimore (75-87)
Toronto's the best team on paper, with two #1 pitchers (Dickey & Johnson) and some great additions like Reyes and Cabrera. Plus, they dealt with a lot of injuries last year. If they have luck with health, I could see them winning 95.
Tampa had key injuries, too, and if Longoria had played 150 games, they probably would have beaten out Baltimore for a playoff spot. Shields was pretty valuable, but they have the pitching depth to make up for his absence. The key, I think, is Myers. Can he contribute at above-average production in 2013?
I think there's a big gap after Tampa. The loss of Martin and Swisher is huge for New York. A-Rod looks like toast, Teixeira's been in steady decline, and Granderson's declining OPS matches his declining defense. The team looks old, and the organization -- for the first time in my memory -- seems reluctant to spend its way out of an inevitable aging curve.
Despite all the signings, I think Boston will be lucky to win half its games, even with its signings. Victorino will likely be a step down from 2012 Ross, and Napoli from Gonzalez, and those are offset by Dempster and Drew. The pen's better, and it's likely we'll see improved production from center and third, but unless Buchholz and Lester hit career highs and Lackey's league average (I'm not a believer: a 34-yo coming off of elbow surgery?), can you see more than a 10-game improvement? Me neither.
Baltimore had a lot of luck last year. They crash back to reality.
#7
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- 236 posts
Posted 01 January 2013 - 10:28 PM
I think Toronto is the biggest threat with an experienced and capable 1-5 starting rotation. They have 2 plus power bats in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, a new leadoff hitter in Jose Reyes, two developing young hitters in Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia and a good all around hitter in Melky Cabrera to keep a healthy number of runs crossing the plate. N.Y. with it's lineup of good hitters top to bottom and experienced A.L. East tested starting pitching and Yankee stud closer (Rivera, who is old but a one of a kind talent as a closer) and Tampa Bay with it's good young starting pitching, it's stud closer (Rodney) and young stars like Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Will Myers, may both have enough to keep the Red Sox under them in 2013. The Red Sox might have a good chance of beating Baltimore, whose starting pitching is still vulnerable, but is gaining experience and has future promise. Last year was a nice bounce for the Orioles, but I think the division is too strong for them this year.
Yes, the Red Sox might slip ahead of Tampa, since they dealt top A.L. East arm James Shields, but I think the Jays and Yankees are built with better everyday players and at least equal pitching to the Red Sox. I would have been more impressed with Rafael Soriano as Red Sox closer as opposed to Joel Hanrahan (potentially serious control issues in a division that exploits that weakness very well) . At least Soriano has had success in the American League. The combination of Hanrahan, Bard (Steve Blass and Rick Ankiel imitator), Bailey (brittle in the extreme), Uehara (capable but old and has back problems) are not reliable enough components to call this a strong bullpen. Tazawa may actually end up being the best bullpen arm by the end of 2013. If they somehow find success as a group and the starting pitching improves, the Red Sox could possibly grab second place and a wild card spot. I think fourth place is much more likely.
Yes, the Red Sox might slip ahead of Tampa, since they dealt top A.L. East arm James Shields, but I think the Jays and Yankees are built with better everyday players and at least equal pitching to the Red Sox. I would have been more impressed with Rafael Soriano as Red Sox closer as opposed to Joel Hanrahan (potentially serious control issues in a division that exploits that weakness very well) . At least Soriano has had success in the American League. The combination of Hanrahan, Bard (Steve Blass and Rick Ankiel imitator), Bailey (brittle in the extreme), Uehara (capable but old and has back problems) are not reliable enough components to call this a strong bullpen. Tazawa may actually end up being the best bullpen arm by the end of 2013. If they somehow find success as a group and the starting pitching improves, the Red Sox could possibly grab second place and a wild card spot. I think fourth place is much more likely.
#8
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- 574 posts
Posted 02 January 2013 - 12:27 PM
This seems like one of the least predictable years in the AL East for a long time. After a year like 2012, where the Red Sox were godawful and the Orioles came out of nowhere to snag a playoff spot, I'm not real confident in any prediction. But here goes! To me, the Blue Jays have added so much talent that they're probably the favorites or close to it. The Yankees haven't done anything to improve the club, and they're all a year older and closer to death, but they were a 95-win team last year.
For what it's worth, SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog runs some playoff prediction simulations that have the Blue Jays leading the division, but everyone else somewhat bunched up. I'm not sure what rosters he's using for those predictions, though, so take it with a grain of salt.
For what it's worth, SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog runs some playoff prediction simulations that have the Blue Jays leading the division, but everyone else somewhat bunched up. I'm not sure what rosters he's using for those predictions, though, so take it with a grain of salt.
#9
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- 340 posts
Posted 03 January 2013 - 11:25 AM
I think every team in the AL East will win between 82 and 90 wins and every team will be seperated by 5 or so games..... Very competetive, very close and all mediocre to above average. I think Baltimore will come back to earth somewhat and will see how difficult it is to contend for consecutive seasons. I think Toronto wil start off looking like total shit, with a losing record in April. They will then go through a couple winning streaks and a period of exceptional play and end up right back in contention for the AL EAST crown. The MFY will have a season that is a catstrophe by their standards. They will finish right around .500 maybe 2 or 3 games better ..... Joe Girardi will be fired , even though it's the fault of poor roster contruction and age (Hey I've been hoping this will happen for years, eventually it has to come true......right). Tampa will be a very difficult team to beat again, with great young pitching and a seemingly endless supply of young arms being called up. IN the end though injuries on the offense to players like Longoria will keep them in the high eighties low ninety win range.
I think the Sox will have right around 85 wins and will be within shouting distance of the wildcard all year.... With a couple of the right breaks, a dealine deal or two and career years from Buch and Lester they could take the division, that is of course asking a lot from A TEAM THAT WON 69 GAMES LAST YEAR.
I think it will be a fun year, and that even the naysayers (on SOSH) will grow to really like this team by years end.
I think the Sox will have right around 85 wins and will be within shouting distance of the wildcard all year.... With a couple of the right breaks, a dealine deal or two and career years from Buch and Lester they could take the division, that is of course asking a lot from A TEAM THAT WON 69 GAMES LAST YEAR.
I think it will be a fun year, and that even the naysayers (on SOSH) will grow to really like this team by years end.
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