209 replies to this topic

[Sausage in Section 17]

Fergie Jenkins

[Edelpeddle]

You got it.

[FanSinceBoggs]

So is this the correct rotation situation as of right now (last year of contract)?

Lester (L) -- (2013, club option 2014)
Lackey -- (2014, has club option for '15 activated?)
Dempster -- (2014)
Buchholz -- (2015, club options 2016-17)
Doubront (L) -- (2017?)

Morales (L) in the pen and 6th starter

De La Rosa in AAA as the 7th starter

I think Steven Wright will be competing for the 7th spot in the rotation (or maybe the 6th spot if the Red Sox decide to keep Morales in the bullpen when a starter goes down).

Edited by FanSinceBoggs, 13 December 2012 - 11:26 PM.

[dcmissle]

I guess the Sox and M.Henri blew a zeppelin filled with smoke up our collectives arses...

The pitching staff is all ifs {John Farrell has come to the rescue...maybe...

The positional acquisitions will provide us with some snap and pop...
ASSume that Papi is very healthy for his age;;;
The defense is ..an if...

The sub rosa "plan" as I see it is to take a break from serious contention and hope that the Nation will be as patient as most of the SoSHers are here...And if (again) there is a pony in all this horse shit then this FO becomes a legend in its own time...

I think this is premature. Whether you're right depends on how they characterize the team when the smoke clears.

I think several posters above have it right -- in all likelihood we have a competitive but not contending team, crossing a "bridge", "rebuild lite". If the brass go not much further than this in describing what has happened, I'll be fine. You can second-guess the strategic decision, quibble about execution, but in the end the course is reasonable, and the FO would be shooting straight.

If, on the other hand, Larry pops up on D & C making like Baghdad Bob, and providing a roster-wide rendition of Duquette's Jose Offerman rain dance, then any reasonable fan should feel that his or her intelligence has been insulted.

If past is prologue, you have a very decent chance of being right, but I remain hopeful.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think several posters above have it right -- in all likelihood we have a competitive but not contending team,

If we're not going to have a contending team, that means there is at least one team, preferably more than one, in the AL East that is clearly better than we are going into 2013 and will certainly finish higher in the standings than us unless something very bad happens to them.

Can you tell me which team that is, and why? Because honestly I don't see it. The Rays have better pitching than anybody (as always), but don't have the depth of positional talent to turn that pitching into slam-dunk domination (as always). The Yankees seem very similar to us at this point; their rotation is a shade better (or at least more bankable), but I like our defense better; offense and bullpens seem pretty comparable (though I like our bullpen better, if only for the depth). The Jays have improved, but not enough to vault them ahead of anybody. The Orioles have a good starting lineup but the pitching is thin. The Sox have good defense in all but a couple of spots, a good if unspectacular batting order, a rotation that has several question marks but no obvious weak spots, and the best bullpen in the division.

There's no clear favorite there, and nobody (certainly not us) to count out. I wonder when was the last time no AL East team won 90 games? Because I think that could easily happen this year.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 14 December 2012 - 11:40 AM.

[JimD]

I wonder when was the last time no AL East team won 90 games?

The infamous 2000 season when the MFY's won 87 games and went on to defeat the Mets in the Subway Series.

[Rasputin]

If we're not going to have a contending team, that means there is at least one team, preferably more than one, in the AL East that is clearly better than we are going into 2013 and will certainly finish higher in the standings than us unless something very bad happens to them.

Can you tell me which team that is, and why? Because honestly I don't see it. The Rays have better pitching than anybody (as always), but don't have the depth of positional talent to turn that pitching into slam-dunk domination (as always). The Yankees seem very similar to us at this point; their rotation is a shade better (or at least more bankable), but I like our defense better; offense and bullpens seem pretty comparable (though I like our bullpen better, if only for the depth). The Jays have improved, but not enough to vault them ahead of anybody. The Orioles have a good starting lineup but the pitching is thin. The Sox have good defense in all but a couple of spots, a good if unspectacular batting order, a rotation that has several question marks but no obvious weak spots, and the best bullpen in the division.

There's no clear favorite there, and nobody (certainly not us) to count out. I wonder when was the last time no AL East team won 90 games? Because I think that could easily happen this year.

I take exception to your premise, that it means a team is guaranteed to win unless bad things happen. I just don't buy that definition.

I think the Rays and Yankees have a significantly better chance of winning the division than the Sox. It's not huge, but it's significant. Just pulling numbers out of my ass, I'd say the Rays are about 35% to win, the Yankees 30% with the Sox maybe 20%, the Jays 15% and the Orioles some sad little number that rounds to zero.

Another factor to consider is that the AL West just got easier with the addition of the Astros.

[Edelpeddle]

I don't expect us to be a 90 win team, but not only our division but the entire AL is getting weaker. Yankees are a year older, have injuries to A-Rod, Jeter and Rivera and are essentially the same team without Swisher, Martin and Soriano. Rangers are losing Hamilton, Napoli and Young. Angels are replacing Hunter (5.3 WAR last year) with Hamilton (5+ WAR once in his career) and losing Haren and Greinke. We may end up competing for a team like Baltimore or Toronto for a playoff spot.

[geoduck no quahog]

This is a circular discussion that is relatively meaningless. Every team is rate-able on paper before the season starts, and every team is bet-able in Las Vegas based on established odds.

Tigers will be favorites, followed by Yankees, Angels, Rangers, A's, Rays and Orioles.

And then a season is played.

And Kansas City wins the Pennant.

[Rasputin]

This is a circular discussion that is relatively meaningless. Every team is rate-able on paper before the season starts, and every team is bet-able in Las Vegas based on established odds.

Tigers will be favorites, followed by Yankees, Angels, Rangers, A's, Rays and Orioles.

And then a season is played.

And Kansas City wins the Pennant.

Bets?

Going into last season, I thought the Detroit Tigers were the team most likely to make the post season based primarily on their lack of competition.

This year, I'm not sure it's any different. The rest of the AL is more wide open, especially the AL East but is anyone really going to be able to beat the Tigers for the Central?

[Plympton91]

It's probably best to take detailed discussion of the bullpen to another thread, but I don't see the optimism about the bullpen shown by some here. I certainly don't see how you can rate the Red Sox bullpen equal to the Yankees at all. The Yankees worst case of Rivera not coming back strong still leaves them with Robertson, Phelps, Logan, and Chamberlin at the back end. All of them are currently better than their projected Sox counterpart in those roles, unless you assume a best case scenario for the Red Sox of Bailey being healthy all year and Bard magically rediscovering both the ability to throw 99 mph and to control where it is going. To me, the Red Sox bullpen is filled with question marks or mediocrity from the back end to the front end, with the exception of Uehara.

Edited by Plympton91, 14 December 2012 - 01:59 PM.

[Rasputin]

So you forgot Tazawa existed?

[TomTerrific]

I take exception to your premise, that it means a team is guaranteed to win unless bad things happen. I just don't buy that definition.I think the Rays and Yankees have a significantly better chance of winning the division than the Sox. It's not huge, but it's significant. Just pulling numbers out of my ass, I'd say the Rays are about 35% to win, the Yankees 30% with the Sox maybe 20%, the Jays 15% and the Orioles some sad little number that rounds to zero.Another factor to consider is that the AL West just got easier with the addition of the Astros.

Below stolen from RLYW (hope that's OK). I believe these are SG's projections using CAIRO and a few other tidbits. "Before" and "After" represent his projections just before and just after the Youk signing. Looks like things are wide open if this is to be believed.To be honest, not sure how much weight I would give it, even given all the acknowledged uncertainties. For instance, how does adding Youk to the Yankees' lineup give Baltimore another 1.1 win and Toronto another 0.5 win? (I'm pretty sure these are not Monte Carlo-derived)

Before:

TM	W	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%
Rays	86.0	25.8%	8.4%	10.2%	44.4%
Blue Jays	86.0	25.3%	9.2%	8.2%	42.7%
Yankees	85.0	23.0%	8.6%	7.7%	39.3%
Red Sox	84.0	20.1%	7.7%	8.4%	36.2%
Orioles	73.0	5.8%	3.1%	5.0%	13.9%

After:

TM	W	Div	WC1	WC2	PS%
Blue Jays	86.5	25.3%	9.0%	8.7%	42.9%
Yankees	86.4	25.0%	8.7%	9.2%	42.9%
Rays	86.0	24.6%	8.7%	8.8%	42.1%
Red Sox	82.6	17.9%	6.9%	8.4%	33.2%
Orioles	74.1	7.3%	3.7%	4.8%	15.8%

Edited by TomTerrific, 14 December 2012 - 03:15 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

It's probably best to take detailed discussion of the bullpen to another thread, but I don't see the optimism about the bullpen shown by some here. I certainly don't see how you can rate the Red Sox bullpen equal to the Yankees at all. The Yankees worst case of Rivera not coming back strong still leaves them with Robertson, Phelps, Logan, and Chamberlin at the back end. All of them are currently better than their projected Sox counterpart in those roles, unless you assume a best case scenario for the Red Sox of Bailey being healthy all year and Bard magically rediscovering both the ability to throw 99 mph and to control where it is going. To me, the Red Sox bullpen is filled with question marks or mediocrity from the back end to the front end, with the exception of Uehara.

I'd say Bailey and Rivera are equally question marks at this point. Rivera's upside is greater in theory, of course, but do we really know that he can "be Mariano" again at his age after essentialy a whole year off, even if he is healthy enough to return to his former role?

As for the others:
Uehara = Robertson
Miller >/= Logan if he can pick up on where he left off last year; big if, granted
Tazawa >/= Phelps
Breslow > Rapada
Bard ? Chamberlain (they're both head cases with great stuff; who knows?)

Beyond that point is too much uncertainty about identity and/or performance for direct comparison, I think. But at worst, the Sox bullpen looks competitive with the Yankee bullpen next year.

[Plympton91]

Hmm, good points by you and Ras. In my never ending attempt to forget that the second half of last season occurred, I routinely forget that the Red Sox acquired Breslow and that Tazawa pitched fantastically. I would reverse Breslow and Miller in your list and take issue with the idea that Tazawa, Miller, and Uehara are equivalent to Phelps, Rapata and Robertson due to higher injury risk on Tazawa, greater control issues on Miller, and age risk on Uehara raising the variance on the Red Sox trio. But that is much more comparable than I thought. At least until Soriano goes hat in hand back to the MFYs.

However, equating Bard to Chamberlin at this point is wishful thinking. Chamberlin finished the season healthy and pitching perfectly well. Bard is, until proven otherwise, unable to function normally on a major league mound, and even if he gets his mind right still has the issue of dramatically reduced velocity.

Edited by Plympton91, 14 December 2012 - 05:03 PM.

[mabrowndog]

The Dempster signing is official. He'll be introduced at a press conference today at 2:30 pm EST. It'll be aired live on NESN.

No word yet on the corresponding roster move.

Edited by mabrowndog, 19 December 2012 - 02:06 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

Beato DFA'd

[mabrowndog]

Pedro Beato designated for assignment.

Edited by mabrowndog, 19 December 2012 - 02:17 PM.

[TheoShmeo]

The Dempster signing is official. He'll be introduced at a press conference today at 2:30 pm EST. It'll be aired live on NESN.

No word yet on the corresponding roster move.

It's on the Sox site too.

[SoxScout]

Ben; Proven starter, history of success, embraces coming and playing in Boston.

Ryan; Want to thank everyone from the Chic... sorry, Boston organization. They wanted me as much as anyone else out there. Looking forward to it. If you concern yourself with what park you're in and not executing your pitches, you're not going to have success. Coming to AL the Sox are going to miss my bat in the lineup. He lists all the players Ben has added as why he is excited, including Napoli.

Millar, Pedroia and Ortiz pitched the Sox to him.

Edited by SoxScout, 19 December 2012 - 02:42 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

Ben; Proven starter, history of success, embraces coming and playing in Boston.

Ryan; Want to thank everyone from the Chic... sorry, Boston organization. They wanted me as much as anyone else out there. Looking forward to it. If you concern yourself with what park you're in and not executing your pitches, you're not going to have success. Coming to AL the Sox are going to miss my bat in the lineup. He lists all the players Ben has added as why he is excited, including Napoli.

We can pinch hit him for Iglesias in 2014

Edited by Cellar-Door, 19 December 2012 - 02:39 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Nice t shirt.

(null)

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ben; Proven starter, history of success, embraces coming and playing in Boston.

Ryan; Want to thank everyone from the Chic... sorry, Boston organization. They wanted me as much as anyone else out there. Looking forward to it. If you concern yourself with what park you're in and not executing your pitches, you're not going to have success. Coming to AL the Sox are going to miss my bat in the lineup. He lists all the players Ben has added as why he is excited, including Napoli.

Millar, Pedroia and Ortiz pitched the Sox to him.

Caught that slip. Couldn't help but think of this http://youtu.be/d1-QAF8gLy0?t=1m12s

[Papelbon's Poutine]

That glove waggle thing is going to get really annoying.

[mabrowndog]

Rob Bradford @bradfo
Dempster has No. 46. Franklin Morales no longer has 46. No money exchanged, just a phone call from clubhouse manager Tom McLaughlin

[knucklecup]

Rob Bradford @bradfo
Dempster has No. 46. Franklin Morales no longer has 46. No money exchanged, just a phone call from clubhouse manager Tom McLaughlin

I get that he's a veteran and more recognized but Morales will likely be better than Dumpster next year.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I get that he's a veteran and more recognized but Morales will likely be better than Dumpster next year.

First, based on what? Second, we're already starting with the shitty put down nicknames?

[JimD]

Second, we're already starting with the shitty put down nicknames?

Remember, 'Drew' rhymes with 'poo'.

[dylanmarsh]

First, based on what? Second, we're already starting with the shitty put down nicknames?

His name is Dempster and if you change the first 'e' to a 'u' then his name becomes Dumpster, which is suppose to reflect his poor pitching ability with a comparison to garbage that would be put into a dumpster. [/Roethlisberger]

[knucklecup]

First, based on what? Second, we're already starting with the shitty put down nicknames?

People called him that in Chicago. It is a shitty nickname. Admittedly.

He's a good addition - will eat innings, bolster the back end of the rotation, and really allow for Morales, Rubby, etc. to come along slowly. But I never saw him as this famous number 46 that had rights to it wherever he went. That's all.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

No, I was asking what you are basing the assertion that Morales will be better than Dempster on.

[knucklecup]

I like what I saw from him last year. Obviously it's a very small sample size, but he pitched very well in the opportunities he was given.

As a starter, he had one hiccup against the Yankees but was otherwise pretty good. Pitched great in a game that I saw in Wrigley. He was also jerked around from starter to reliever for most of the second half and still pitched well.

Dempster wasn't very good for Texas either. He appeared overmatched at times.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Dempster wasn't very good for Texas either. He appeared overmatched at times.

You can't isolate starts for Morales as being potential outliers then not do that for Dempster. After being traded to Texas he had two bad starts in his first three (the one good one was against the remnants of the Red Sox roster) then pitched well the rest of the way with a 4.00 ERA.

[mabrowndog]

I have a feeling Dempster's going to be the 4- to 6-inning version of Eric Gagne.

[Rasputin]

I have a feeling Dempster's going to be the 4- to 6-inning version of Eric Gagne.

I have the feeling Dempster's going to be a pretty boring starter who is neither terribly good nor terribly bad who is traded at the deadline so we can get Rubby de la Rosa some starts with the big club.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

His name is Dempster and if you change the first 'e' to a 'u' then his name becomes Dumpster, which is suppose to reflect his poor pitching ability with a comparison to garbage that would be put into a dumpster. [/Roethlisberger]

@MStafford: That's pretty obvious, but thank you Mr Rapelsburger #Dempster #Roethlisberger

[Harry Hooper]

I have a feeling Dempster's going to be the 4- to 6-inning version of Eric Gagne.

Isn't that Lackey's role?

Among the reasons to be optimistic about Dempster are 1) his experience pitching many games in a small park, and 2) no longer requiring him to be "the man" on the pitching staff. He can just go out there and do his thing vs. hitters. Certainly there are areas of concern, though.

[Rasputin]

Isn't that Lackey's role?

I think Lackey is going to surprise a lot of people. The last time he ws really healthy he had an ERA under four. He's two years older, in a different ballpark, and coming back from major surgery so it would be silly to think you're going to get that again, but it wouldn't remotely surprise me if he ended up being a little better than league average.

Last year the highest ERA+ in the rotation was 95. It wouldn't surprise me all that much if the entire rotation is better than that this year.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think Lackey is going to surprise a lot of people. The last time he ws really healthy he had an ERA under four. He's two years older, in a different ballpark, and coming back from major surgery so it would be silly to think you're going to get that again, but it wouldn't remotely surprise me if he ended up being a little better than league average.

Last year the highest ERA+ in the rotation was 95. It wouldn't surprise me all that much if the entire rotation is better than that this year.

Not that I disagree with your overall point, but he was 4 years younger than he'll be in 2013 the last time his ERA was under 4. I'm guessing you looked at fangraphs.com or baseball-reference and saw two seasons separating his last sub 4 ERA and the end of his stat line and that it overwrote the actual years in between, which include a lost 2012 season.

But yeah, I think he'll be as good as we've seen him in a Sox uniform next year. I'd be happy with another 2010 season, to be honest, and think that would be pretty valuable for a back of the rotation starter.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 20 December 2012 - 11:44 AM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Not that I disagree with your overall point, but he was 4 years younger than he'll be in 2013 the last time his ERA was under 4

Though only three years younger than the last time his FIP was under 4. The rest of his numbers belied that 4.40 ERA in 2010. So yeah, a repeat of 2010 with a little better luck (or high-leverage execution, if you prefer) would be just fine for a #3/4 starter.

Among the reasons to be optimistic about Dempster are 1) his experience pitching many games in a small park, and 2) no longer requiring him to be "the man" on the pitching staff. He can just go out there and do his thing vs. hitters. Certainly there are areas of concern, though.

Probably the biggest area of concern is his vulnerability to good hitters/teams. Last year his ERA split for sub-.500 vs. .500+ teams was 1.98/4.65, while the OPS allowed split was .624/.725. (NL splits: 3.71/4.14, .705/.734)

There are two bright spots there: one, he was more better against bad teams than he was worse among good teams, and two, the AL East isn't the powerhouse it once was. But Farrell may want to hide him from lineups like the Tigers and Angels when he can, while we enjoy him feasting on Houston, Seattle and Cleveland.

[maufman]

Last year the highest ERA+ in the rotation was 95. It wouldn't surprise me all that much if the entire rotation is better than that this year.

I agree that's a realistic thing for each SP individually, but I will be quite surprised if we go 5-for-5.

Lackey might be cooked; the league might have figured out Doubront; Dempster might fall off a cliff; Farrell might be unable to fix Lester; and Buchholz might end up being dogged by injury or ineffectiveness again. I agree that people who expect 3 or 4 of those things to come to pass are unduly optimistic, but I think it's highly likely that one of them will (or, that one of them will simply suffer a serious injury). So if RDLR pitches well enough to deserve a major-league rotation spot by mid-July, it's unlikely a trade will be needed to clear a rotation spot (unless it's a Youk-type trade to unload someone who won't accept a demotion gracefully).

[czar]

I like what I saw from him last year. Obviously it's a very small sample size, but he pitched very well in the opportunities he was given.

As a starter, he had one hiccup against the Yankees but was otherwise pretty good. Pitched great in a game that I saw in Wrigley. He was also jerked around from starter to reliever for most of the second half and still pitched well.

Dempster wasn't very good for Texas either. He appeared overmatched at times.

We're aware that Franklin Morales has never had an xFIP lower than 4.09 (and that was in 2007), right? Correspondingly, in the last 5 years as a starter, Dempster has never had an xFIP higher than 3.77.

I like Franklin Morales, but I'd make a killing if I was a sportsbook and gave them 50/50 odds to beat each other and half the people went with Morales.

[knucklecup]

Had to post this. Ryan Dempster is working out here at XSport in Chicago on Ashland and School currently with me.

[Ferm Sheller]

Had to post this. Ryan Dempster is working out here at XSport in Chicago on Ashland and School currently with me.

Dude, can you pay more attention to our workout and less attention to SoSH?

[mt8thsw9th]

Had to post this. Ryan Dempster is working out here at XSport in Chicago on Ashland and School currently with me.

I bet you won't post a picture of him.

[TomRicardo]

I have a feeling Dempster's going to be the 4- to 6-inning version of Eric Gagne.

If Dempster is any version of Gagne there is no way he will even get to 4 IP.

I really don't see the comparison.

[Rice4HOF]

If Dempster is any version of Gagne there is no way he will even get to 4 IP.

I really don't see the comparison.

They're both Canadian. I think the comparison pretty much stops there.

[mt8thsw9th]

If Dempster posts a 3.94 xFIP as Gagne did in 2007, I'm guessing there will be a lot of happy people on this board.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Dempster posts a 3.94 xFIP as Gagne did in 2007, I'm guessing there will be a lot of happy people on this board.

Why? Were folks pleased with Gagne and his 3.95 xFIP in '07?

[JimBoSox9]

Why? Were folks pleased with Gagne and his 3.95 xFIP in '07?

Of course not. FIP is only brought up in defense of underperforming pitchers when they're not complete assclowns who do their best to shank your team's Series hopes every time they lace up their goddamn spikes. So there. It's easy for your FIP to outperform your ERA when the average MPH of balls put in play against you is just slightly subsonic.

Seriously, fuck Eric Gagne. I mean, why even? I was having a good day.

Also, am I crazy or is Fangraphs missing his Boston stats?