209 replies to this topic

[SMU_Sox]

If the Sox don't think Morales can be an effective starter I have no problem with a short term higher money deal to Dempster. Worst case scenario you overpaid for a #5 guy. You need 6 "good" SP's. Having Morales be a guy who is a RP until an injury is a decent plan. This signing, if it happens, won't be a shrewd move. But it will keep the Sox afloat and give them much needed SP depth.

[Greg29fan]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract.

[Greg29fan]

done


Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.

[SoxScout]

done

until the red sox try to negotiate in an out-clause after a discovery during the physical.

[Corsi]

Hard not to like that contract.

[PrometheusWakefield]

There may be better options but there are certainly worse options and at 2 years that's not an overpay.

[Corsi]

Edes confirms the 2/$26.5M number.

[czar]

$2/26.5 is even better than the $2/28 most of us rational people were ballparking.

At 2 years, you'd be hardpressed to find reasons why this deal either A) hinders the Sox in 2013-2014 or B) hinders the Sox in 2015+.

Edited by czar, 13 December 2012 - 02:58 PM.

[SMU_Sox]

I completely agree with Czar. They had the budget to get very good short term pitching depth. They went out and got a medium risk option with a decent floor. I support this move. I've outlined why I think Dempster is a risk before mostly due to age and a decline in velocity and if his stuff will play well in a more competitive division, but for 2 years I'd take the risk too.

[YTF]

Like that it's 2 years and the $$$ are a little less than we thought given the 2 year 26 million that the Sox offered previously. Got to think there's a little more to this than Boston sweetening the pot by .5 million. Can we now get the Salty/Floyd deal done?

Edited by YTF, 13 December 2012 - 03:07 PM.

[In my lifetime]

I for one (and realize I am probably in the minority) like these 2-3 year FA deals for good but not great players. Fills the roster, makes the RS playoff competitive, but doesn't cost draft picks, doesn't sacrifice prospects and doesn't preclude more major signings or an in-season trade if the RS are really in the hunt.

[bakahump]

Funny.....if prorated over 3 years....thats 3 years 39.75 Million....seems like I have seen that number (or damn close) before.


Xerox contracts.....

[dcmissle]

Funny.....if prorated over 3 years....thats 3 years 39.75 Million....seems like I have seen that number (or damn close) before.


Xerox contracts.....

We had them in spades down here with the pre-Shanahan Redskins -- 5 for $30, 10 to 15 mm guaranteed. Adam Auchuleta says hi.

One has nothing to do with the other, but the mere spectre of cookie cutter contracts sent shivers down my spine cause the only other place I've seen them was not a good place.

Edited by dcmissle, 13 December 2012 - 03:15 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes
RT @Joelsherman1: Dempster goes to #Redsox, his career v. #Yankees: 5GS 0-4, 7.62 ERA.

Not encouraging.

[lexrageorge]

Not encouraging.

I didn't realize 5 games was such a meaningful statistical sample these days.

[jon abbey]

Not encouraging.

Actually it doesn't look too bad against guys currently on the Yankees, no HRs allowed:

http://www.baseball-...x=1&submitter=1

Edit: Swisher and Chavez did most of the damage against him last year, they're both gone now:

http://www.baseball-...201208130.shtml

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I didn't realize 5 games was such a meaningful statistical sample these days.

It's what we have. And it's terrible.

We also have his 12 starts with Texas this year, where his WHIP shot way up, as did his ERA, hit rate and HR rate.

He's also 11-15 with a 4.63 ERA in interleague play over the course of his career.

The years are not bad, the money's not bad either. The performance? I have my doubts.

[JohntheBaptist]

It's what we have. And it's terrible.

Ah the seductive song of the small sample...

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Ah the seductive song of the small sample...

The sample would be larger if he didn't suck so badly against them that he had to be pulled early all the time.

The Angels have pounded him too. Maybe they can move him around to avoid those teams if possible.

[JohntheBaptist]

Uh, yeah. I guess.

[dynomite]

$2/26.5 is even better than the $2/28 most of us rational people were ballparking.

At 2 years, you'd be hardpressed to find reasons why this deal either A) hinders the Sox in 2013-2014 or B) hinders the Sox in 2015+.

I agree with this. Starting pitching was far and away our #1 priority going into this offseason, and the team signed one of the safest, shortest term FAs available.

This takes the pressure off of the youngsters (Rubby, Webster, etc.) while adding an insurance policy in the almost certain event of injury to a current starter (Lester, Lackey, Buchholz).

EDIT: And while I agree with SJH that his performance against good teams is troubling:

1) most pitchers in baseball struggle against the Angels and Yankees (including Anibal Sanchez, if we're talking about 2013 FA): Josh Beckett (career 5.53 ERA vs. NYY), Buchholz (7.19), even CC Sabathia (6.16).

2) In the scope of winning 90+ games, who cares? If Dempster can give us 200 IP of 3.50-4.00 ERA over the course of the season, I'll take a few bad starts against the Yankees.

Edited by dynomite, 13 December 2012 - 03:51 PM.

[GreenMonsterVsGodzilla]

Well, whatever you want to call this: "bridge years," "rebuild-lite;" they're in it all the way now.

[someoneanywhere]

I for one (and realize I am probably in the minority) like these 2-3 year FA deals for good but not great players. Fills the roster, makes the RS playoff competitive, but doesn't cost draft picks, doesn't sacrifice prospects and doesn't preclude more major signings or an in-season trade if the RS are really in the hunt.

You're not alone, I don't think. Plenty of people around here -- despite the many who are not -- are of a similar mind. They probably spent between $7-$10 million more -- total, now -- than what these guys are "worth." But in my view Ben targeted the right players, made use of his advantages, and protected both the farm and the flexibility going forward. He didn't get a contender, but he got a competitive team that won't lay down, and that maybe -- if the right things go right -- can be in a position come next July to make a move or two to become a contender.

[pokey_reese]

Yeah, this is another in a line of unsexy but prudent moves by Ben this offseason. I like it as a 2-year deal, and was in attendance when he crushed the Sox in Chicago this past season, when he looked like an ace. It helped that he was going against Matsuzaka, who he will be replacing.

With this move, I now really feel like Ben has addressed the major holes he had to fill, upgraded several roster spots without giving up any prospects or committing to any long-term deals. For all the lack of excitement, I am actually really looking forward to this season more than I thought I would.

[SoxFanInPdx]

Approve of that contract in years and money. Dempster is good, but not great. Anytime you can get an affordable, short-term pitcher that can eat innings and hopefully prevent the bullpen from being overworked, you do it. This team has the financial means and didn't give up a pick, which is huge to me. Seeing less of DiceK is a plus and I don't trust Buchholz is going to stay healthy all season. Good move IMO.

[czar]

It's what we have. And it's terrible.

We also have his 12 starts with Texas this year, where his WHIP shot way up, as did his ERA, hit rate and HR rate.

He's also 11-15 with a 4.63 ERA in interleague play over the course of his career.

The years are not bad, the money's not bad either. The performance? I have my doubts.

Not to come off as snarky but it might be useful to re-read the thread from page 1.

Everything you've hit on (the poor numbers in TEX, etc.) aside from the SSS Yankee split was covered. Essentially it boils down to the fact that there was no discernible difference between NL and AL Dempster last year other than BABIP and LOB%. All other peripherals and physical aspects (velocity, etc.) were very stable.

Citing his 13 game ERA as a reason why he'd be terrible in the AL is disingenuous.

[Plympton91]

It's what we have. And it's terrible.

We also have his 12 starts with Texas this year, where his WHIP shot way up, as did his ERA, hit rate and HR rate.

He's also 11-15 with a 4.63 ERA in interleague play over the course of his career.

The years are not bad, the money's not bad either. The performance? I have my doubts.

Dempster is effectively replacing the combination of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. What was their record and ERA?

Incidentally, the repaired and fully rehabbed John Lackey will be replacing the combination of Daniel Bard, Aaron Cook, and Zack Stewart; thus, even a repeat of his 2011 season is an improvement.

Morales as a 6th starter in the bullpen is a nice luxury, with Delarosa at AAA being the 7th starter, and an Aaron Cook option to break glass at Pawtucket has them in decent shape for a rebound to respectability as a 25th percentile performance expectation, and contention at a 75th percentile performance expectation.

[Hokie Sox]

Since not having an "innings-eater" on the roster the last 2 seasons has killed us, it feels surprisingly good to have signed a bona fide "innings eater."

Whether this is an indication of a "good signing" by the Red Sox, or just a reflection of how depressing the last 2 seasons have been remains to be seen.

[mt8thsw9th]

Where are there even breakdowns of his interleague stats? He was a pretty bad pitcher against everyone through 2007 (1218 innings, 4.82 ERA, 89 ERA+), and has thrown 997 innings since at a 114 clip.

That said, I doubt the small sample from Texas and interleague stats are predictive of much. Though if we're going to use them, his ERA was 5.25 in his two starts before joining the Rangers, so he showed a bit of improvement with Texas.

[Corsi]

Where are there even breakdowns of his interleague stats?

Here and here:

http://www.baseball-...sry01|pitch|IP|
http://www.baseball-...sry01|pitch|AB|

Prior to the trade to the Rangers, Dempster had a 3.00 ERA vs the AL from 2009-2012 (72 IP).

[Div School Sox Fan]

Dempster's starts against the Yankees in the last decade:

August 13, 2012: 6 IP, 8 R - that's a bad start he had last year
July 18, 2011: 5.1 IP, 3 R - that's a mediocre start he had two years ago

He had three previous starts against the Yankees in 1998, 2000, and 2001 in which he faced relevant opponents like Tino Martinez, Shane Spencer, Paul O'Neill and (seriously) Darryl Strawberry.

[The Gray Eagle]

Dempster made $13.5, $13.5 and $14 million the past 3 years, so he's actually taking a slight pay cut on a 2-year deal to come here. Which is good, because he is old.

He was leading the NL in ERA at the time of his trade last year, at 2.25.

I'd guess we get about 180 IP from him at a 4.20 ERA next year, maybe a little higher with Fenway as a home park. That's pretty solid.

He's kind of a rich man's John Burkett, so maybe he's the Linen Napkin?

Edited by The Gray Eagle, 13 December 2012 - 04:39 PM.

[jon abbey]

Dempster's starts against the Yankees in the last decade:

August 13, 2012: 6 IP, 8 R - that's a bad start he had last year
July 18, 2011: 5.1 IP, 3 R - that's a mediocre start he had two years ago

He had three previous starts against the Yankees in 1998, 2000, and 2001 in which he faced relevant opponents like Tino Martinez, Shane Spencer, Paul O'Neill and (seriously) Darryl Strawberry.

And again, even the one from last year, the damage was mostly done by Swisher and Chavez who are no longer on NY.

[redsoxstiff]

I guess the Sox and M.Henri blew a zeppelin filled with smoke up our collectives arses...

The pitching staff is all ifs {John Farrell has come to the rescue...maybe...

The positional acquisitions will provide us with some snap and pop...
ASSume that Papi is very healthy for his age;;;
The defense is ..an if...

The sub rosa "plan" as I see it is to take a break from serious contention and hope that the Nation will be as patient as most of the SoSHers are here...And if (again) there is a pony in all this horse shit then this FO becomes a legend in its own time...

Edited by redsoxstiff, 13 December 2012 - 05:09 PM.

[OttoC]

Well, the sample size I am worried about is 162 and I am not sure the 2013 Red Sox will better the 2012 club over that period.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You have to normalize those by games played since WAR is an aggregate stat. Without looking at the numbers, Hill, Ross, and Sweeney played less than their corresponding replacements.

They are probably closer to 3-4 fWAR/150 (just guesstimating), not 7-8.

That's fair. My original thinking was that a lot of the innings they'd be replacing were covered by replacement level players and that while their actual performance wasn't exactly zero, replacement level, by definition, is 0 WAR so I just ignored them. I probably should have put another half hour of work into the post and just included all the contributions. What I was trying to do was a quick and dirty look at what they'd be replacing in 2013 by using 2012's numbers, but there's a good chance the WAR improvement is probably going to end up closer to your estimate than mine, so I'll just tip my cap to you and move on.

Well, the sample size I am worried about is 162 and I am not sure the 2013 Red Sox will better the 2012 club over that period.

They might not... they could also end up in the playoffs. This is a really interesting roster in that there's an absolute ton of variance possible in their performance next year. The Red Sox are taking a big risk. If it pays off, they'll look like geniuses. If it doesn't, they can fall back on "the kids are coming!" to ease the pain of another year without the playoffs. And they're spending enough money to at least say "We're trying to win!"

I'm really excited to see how the season plays out, though my lowered expectations for the team after the way 2012 ended makes it easier to be laid back about the potential downside of this roster.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 13 December 2012 - 05:13 PM.

[Edelpeddle]

Very happy with the terms of the deal. This would put us at roughly $144.54 million for luxury tax purposes. I wonder if we would sign Sanchez if his contract demands fall. At the very least we'll have money to take on a player or two at the trade deadline.

[bosockboy]

I'd still go after Marcum if he could also be had for two years. That would give us impressive depth and pushes Morales down to 7 on the depth chart.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Rosenthal reports are that Sanchez and the Cubs are in "serious discussions" about a 5/75 deal. I don't think his demands are likely to fall to acceptable levels for the Red Sox.

[Edelpeddle]

Scratch that, looks like the Cubs just signed Sanchez. Good timing for us, teams are bound to get desperate for pitchers now.

[Rasputin]

The years are not bad, the money's not bad either. The performance? I have my doubts.

All he has to do is give de la Rosa some time.

[Edelpeddle]

Is this the first Canadian we've had since Bedard?

Edited by Edelpeddle, 13 December 2012 - 06:12 PM.

[LeoCarrillo]

Very happy with the terms of the deal. This would put us at roughly $144.54 million for luxury tax purposes. I wonder if we would sign Sanchez if his contract demands fall. At the very least we'll have money to take on a player or two at the trade deadline.

At some point (I'm thinking right about now), we should probably stand pat and save some ducats for next offseason. Nothing much coming off the books before 2014, and it might be nice to have most of that $45 million left to make a competitive offer to Ellsbury and/or pick up a pitcher or even a SS patch if Iglesias tanks.

[shepard50]

Is this the first Canadian we've had since Bedard?

Yes - it's been a long year without a Canadian for the Sox. Perhaps the pain is mitigated by the fact that you have to get past Bedard, Gagne, and Kottaras to get to the 1.3 fine seasons of Jason Bay as examples of Canada's contribution this millennium's Boston teams.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Rosenthal reports are that Sanchez and the Cubs are in "serious discussions" about a 5/75 deal. I don't think his demands are likely to fall to acceptable levels for the Red Sox.

It's nice to see Theo has learned his lesson on long term contracts.

[dbn]

So is this the correct rotation situation as of right now (last year of contract)?

Lester (L) -- (2013, club option 2014)
Lackey -- (2014, has club option for '15 activated?)
Dempster -- (2014)
Buchholz -- (2015, club options 2016-17)
Doubront (L) -- (2017?)

Morales (L) in the pen and 6th starter

De La Rosa in AAA as the 7th starter

SP Prospects -- age, highest 2012 level (soxprospect rank):
Workman -- 24, AA (12)
De La Rosa -- 23, MLB (5)
Britton (L) -- 23, AA (11)
Barnes -- 22, A (2)
Webster -- 22, AA (4)
Owens (L) -- 20, A (9)

[Joshv02]

Yes - it's been a long year without a Canadian for the Sox. Perhaps the pain is mitigated by the fact that you have to get past Bedard, Gagne, and Kottaras to get to the 1.3 fine seasons of Jason Bay as examples of Canada's contribution this millennium's Boston teams.

never forget Adam Stern.

[SMU_Sox]

I guess the Sox and M.Henri blew a zeppelin filled with smoke up our collectives arses...

The pitching staff is all ifs {John Farrell has come to the rescue...maybe...

The positional acquisitions will provide us with some snap and pop...
ASSume that Papi is very healthy for his age;;;
The defense is ..an if...

The sub rosa "plan" as I see it is to take a break from serious contention and hope that the Nation will be as patient as most of the SoSHers are here...And if (again) there is a pony in all this horse shit then this FO becomes a legend in its own time...

Stiffy, what else could they do with the pitching staff? Do you want to go over the top of the Dodgers for Greinke? Or pay more for Sanchez? No matter what our pitching staff would have some question marks. But with Buch, Lester, Douby, Dempster as a 1-4 that's very solid. If Lackey gives you his 2010 version you have a competent if not spectacular rotation with decent upside. This was a balance of acquisitions to be competitive and keeping flexibility for the future.

[AB in DC]

As long as they didn't to give him a three-year deal, I'm happy. We need the pitching depth.

[Edelpeddle]

never forget Adam Stern.

How could we? He made a good catch once.

P.S. - Anyone know the last Canadian born player to go from the Cubs to the Rangers to the Red Sox? I'll give you a clue, he's the only Canadian born players in the Hall of Fame.

Edited by Edelpeddle, 13 December 2012 - 10:37 PM.