153 replies to this topic

[bosockboy]

I'd rather save the money they would spend on Swisher to spend on a frontline starter if it became available, such as Wainwright next winter.

I'd much rather work on a deal for Garrett Jones to platoon with Gomes, sign Drew and a depth starter (Saunders?) and call it an offseason.

[redsoxstiff]

If Swisher was on the Red Sox he'd be OUR douche and we'd love him.

without doubt...

[LeoCarrillo]

I'd rather save the money they would spend on Swisher to spend on a frontline starter if it became available, such as Wainwright next winter.

This is where I'm at, too. I also like to don the rose-coloreds and imagine a scenario where Ells puts up a monster year, has fun under the new coaching staff, and wants to stay. And the Sox have enough dough left to make Ells our big FA signing. Giving Swisher 15M and Ells 20M (with JBJ in right eventually) leaves almost zilch left to stay below the $189M luxury line in '14.

Really rough math (not including arb raises etc.) shows that the Sox are at $144M, and so have $45M to play with. Lester gets an AAV bump of $7M next year with the option, though I imagine Salty's $4M is gonzo. So we're at $42M to spend. Only other players coming off the books would be Uehara's $4M and some smallish stuff, like Breslow's $2M. Plus, let's assume those smallish dollars are replaced by equivalent money.

If you give Swisher $15M and Ells $20M, you're now $7M away from the luxury line. At best. So that's your team, barring trades (a big caveat, granted).

Point being simply that signing Swisher now suggests you're giving up on either A.) re-signing Ells or B.) FA pitching improvement in '14.

Edit: Adding slight tweak to the rough-estimate math. If they gave Ells 20M per in the hypothetical, it'd cut into their disposable sub-luxury payroll by 12M, not 20M, since they're already paying him 8M. So, maybe they'd have 15M left. Larger point still the same, anyway.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 16 December 2012 - 05:08 PM.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

I'd rather save the money they would spend on Swisher to spend on a frontline starter if it became available, such as Wainwright next winter.

I'd much rather work on a deal for Garrett Jones to platoon with Gomes, sign Drew and a depth starter (Saunders?) and call it an offseason.

This is where I'm at, too. I also like to don the rose-coloreds and imagine a scenario where Ells puts up a monster year, has fun under the new coaching staff, and wants to stay. And the Sox have enough dough left to make Ells our big FA signing. Giving Swisher 15M and Ells 20M (with JBJ in right eventually) leaves almost zilch left to stay below the $189M luxury line in '14.

Really rough math (not including arb raises etc.) shows that the Sox are at $144M, and so have $45M to play with. Lester gets an AAV bump of $7M next year with the option, though I imagine Salty's $4M is gonzo. So we're at $42M to spend. Only other players coming off the books would be Uehara's $4M and some smallish stuff, like Breslow's $2M. Plus, let's assume those smallish dollars are replaced by equivalent money.

If you give Swisher $15M and Ells $20M, you're now $7M away from the luxury line. At best. So that's your team, barring trades (a big caveat, granted).

Point being simply that signing Swisher now suggests you're giving up on either A.) re-signing Ells or B.) FA pitching improvement in '14.

I'm very much in agreement with these two posts (though I think re-signing Ellsbury is beyond the realm of possibility). The Punto trade was a gift from heaven in the form of increased payroll flexibility - savor it and use it wisely (and not all at once).

[geoduck no quahog]

Except that the odds of signing Ellsbury depend on his value this year (assuming he's retained). A shitty year makes him affordable, but undesireable. A good year and he takes the Boras train straight out of South Station.

Swisher in LF and 1B makes the Red Sox better this year. Ellsbury having a great contract year means the Sox' offense (with Swisher) looks pretty good. It also means Ellsbury's gone in 2014 and the pick comes back along with salary space.

I'm failing to understand the calculation that shows Swisher isn't a net plus (depending on terms, of course). Today the Red Sox don't have a legitimate back-up first baseman. He also makes Kalish/Nava redundant, for whatever that's worth.

{edit: Swisher also makes a mid-season trade of Ellsbury more palatable, since only RF would need to be filled}

Edited by geoduck no quahog, 16 December 2012 - 03:00 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Sox not only don't have a good 1B or RF now, they don't have one on the horizon (Brentz, potentially, I guess). If you land Swisher, you can forget about Napoli, or if Napoli signs, play Swisher in LF, or have the flexibility to move Ellsbury. We created all this flexibility, now lets use it to sign a good player who helps now and in the future. I suspect the Sox only want him on a three year deal, which means they won't get him.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Rudy, that's not quite fair to say. At this moment, they have a deal in place with Napoli and are hammering out details based on what the physical turned up. This isn't unheard of and until there are reports that the deal has actually fallen apart, I wouldn't argue that the team has no one to man 1st base. Technically, sure, it's true since the contract hasn't been finalized, but spinning it as an empty position is a bit much.

As for right field, there are quite a few options. There will be a slew of opinions on whether Victorino can be a good right fielder or not. It comes down to how much you value his defense. I'm guessing he'll be average or slightly below average overall, but that's just a guess. I can't really fault people for thinking he might come in slightly above average or even better than that. There are a lot a variables in play there.

But beyond Victorino, they have a few other options. You mention Brentz as the only potential internal help, but that's not quite true. Should the team decide Ellsbury is worth the price to keep around, JBJ becomes the prime candidate to take over in right field. There's also the possibility that Kalish is healthy and puts it together. And then there's the possibility of Bogaerts being moved to right should he not end up at short (whether that's because of his inability to stick there or Iglesias suddenly figuring out how to get the bat on the ball).

And none of that even touches on the possibility of a trade.

The situation is not quite so dire as you suggest.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 16 December 2012 - 03:28 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I guess I'm of the opinion that there's a zero percent chance of Ellsbury sticking around. If they aren't willing to go 4 years on Hamilton, they sure as hell won't on Jacoby. I guess they could theoretically have an OF of Gomes / Kalish, Victorino, and Bradley down the road- but not a lot of power there.

If the Napoli physical is so bad, I think they should just move on. Even still, 4 years to Swisher gives the team a lot of options down the road.

All this payroll flexibility, why not use some on a guy who can really play? You probably will have to go more than 3 years and more than 13 per, an assume some risk, but you'd get a pretty good player.

I feel like the pendulum has swung too far in favor of prospects. Folks seem to be drooling over a great 15 team fronted by Barnes, de la rosa, Webster, some guy drafted this year, etc. I'd rather let the young guys be complementary players at first. But it seems like the Sox are only adding complementary pieces. Where's the core?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well, for the next three years the core is Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Buchholz. For the next two it's Pedroia, Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Buchholz, Lester. Right or wrong, they're hinging their success on those guys performing like the stars they've been in the past, and for Middlebrooks to be essentially what he was last year, just healthy and for a full season. It may not work out, but it's certainly a defensible position for the team to have.

[Doctor G]

I don't think it is realistic to count on WMB as a core player. Second year guys have been known to struggle offensively as Hosmer did last year. Plus Will is coming of a injury caused by a HBP which is another hurdle for him to overcome.
If Youkilis gets off to a good start in the Bronx there will be added pressure.

The presence of Swisher in the lineup would have the effect of alleviating the pressure on Middlebrooks to match his hot start last year which will be the fans expectation as unfair as that might be.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I like WMB and was encouraged by his production last year, but counting him as a core guy, starting next year? He had 13 BB / 70 K last year. His OPS by month: 922, 836, 785, 673. It's all small samples, and he crushed in big spots (yet had a 5 BB / 44 K, 681 OPS with bases empty), but there's likely going to be an adjustment period. The most he faced any team was 7 games, so how will he respond once there's more of a book on him? If he plays a whole year the way he did last year, hell, he'll be an all-star and I hope to hell that happens but I don't know that expecting it next season is realistic.

(Or, I agree with Doctor G).

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 16 December 2012 - 04:44 PM.

[redsoxstiff]

I don't think it is realistic to count on WMB as a core player. Second year guys have been known to struggle offensively as Hosmer did last year. Plus Will is coming of a injury caused by a HBP which is another hurdle for him to overcome.
If Youkilis gets off to a good start in the Bronx there will be added pressure.

The presence of Swisher in the lineup would have the effect of alleviating the pressure on Middlebrooks to match his hot start last year which will be the fans expectation as unfair as that might be.

Ditto...

[Snodgrass'Muff]

OK, even if you remove Middlebrooks you have a core in the next two years of four players who have all performed like stars in the past. Two positional players and two pitchers. The hope is that by the end of the 2013 season you can add Tazawa to that group and perhaps Doubront if he takes another step forward. It's an ever evolving group of players but there is certainly a base right now for them to build around.

Rudy's question was asked in a way that suggested he didn't think there was any core in place for the short term future while the team transitioned to the next young core of players, whoever they might be. Clearly, there is a core in place and the team is building around it.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm not so sure. At that point you're giving up the draft pick & allotment to upgrade Gomes/ Kalish to Swisher. Setting aside that they'll be flushing Gomes' contract even before it starts, I'm not sure that upgrade is worth it if Napoli is installed at 1B. It looks to me like the roster starts to calcify and loose the flexibility they've built in.

This is exactly the point I was trying to make a few days ago and some people got testy about it. Is Swisher a good player who deserves a significant contract? Sure. Does it make sense for Boston to give it to him given the construction of the roster? That isn't so apparent to me.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think the question of whether we can call WMB a "core" player at this point is somewhat artificial, and I'm not sure the answer is important. But I do think people are being unnecessarily glass-half-empty about his 2012. He started off hot, and tailed off as pitchers started to take him more seriously and get a book on him. That's perfectly normal, but there's no particular reason to assume that he won't adjust in turn. It's gratuitous pessimism to assume that only the cooled-down portion of 2012 is characteristic or predictive.

[maufman]

I think the question of whether we can call WMB a "core" player at this point is somewhat artificial, and I'm not sure the answer is important. But I do think people are being unnecessarily glass-half-empty about his 2012. He started off hot, and tailed off as pitchers started to take him more seriously and get a book on him. That's perfectly normal, but there's no particular reason to assume that he won't adjust in turn. It's gratuitous pessimism to assume that only the cooled-down portion of 2012 is characteristic or predictive.

He's a "core" player because he's under club control through 2018. It doesn't necessarily mean he'll be one of our better players in 2013.

Which is, I guess, another way of saying what you did -- that the distinction between "core" and "non-core" is not terribly meaningful.

[TheYaz67]

So I have lost track of where we are salary wise - from looking at Cots, adding Dempster and guessing on outstanding arb awards/filler pieces we are somewhere in the neighborhood of $150M? Or are we lower, or higher than that? If so, does that mean we are out on Swisher?

[MartyBarrettMVP]

So I have lost track of where we are salary wise - from looking at Cots, adding Dempster and guessing on outstanding arb awards/filler pieces we are somewhere in the neighborhood of $150M? Or are we lower, or higher than that? If so, does that mean we are out on Swisher?

Spier estimates it at $169mil

http://fullcount.wee...ayroll-2013-15/

[pokey_reese]

BP reporting today that Swisher got an offer of 4/$52 from the Indians.

I am assuming that given out current situation no one would want the Sox to match that now, but I am curious, in an alternate universe would people prefer Swisher at 4/52, or Victorino at 3/39?

Same AAV, just another year. Is Swisher worth the bonus year, assuming a moderate offensive advantage and a substantial defensive disadvantage?

[MartyBarrettMVP]

I think the only way Swisher comes here is if the Napoli situation completely falls apart.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think Swisher at 4 is far preferable to Victorino; or Napoli for that matter. He's an impact bat who can play RF or 1B, and is durable. If that's what it takes, the Sox should sign him and forget about Napoli (or sign both and flip Ellsbury for prospects).

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The Indians have reportedly made a lot of offers to a lot of free agents (Victorino, Youkilis, Jackson), and so far, Mark Reynolds is the only one who's taken their offer. I'm betting Swisher finds a better offer than 4/52 when it's all said and done, so to speculate whether or not the Red Sox should be "in on" Swisher at this price seems silly.

[Drek717]

BP reporting today that Swisher got an offer of 4/$52 from the Indians.

I am assuming that given out current situation no one would want the Sox to match that now, but I am curious, in an alternate universe would people prefer Swisher at 4/52, or Victorino at 3/39?

Same AAV, just another year. Is Swisher worth the bonus year, assuming a moderate offensive advantage and a substantial defensive disadvantage?

Swisher over Victorino if it's strictly to play a corner OF spot, but then I think a decent portion of the value they tied to Victorino is his ability to play CF. Given the health concerns and impending FA of Ellsbury it's worth projecting forward into 2014 sans-Ellsbury. JBJ might be ready but penciling him in as the 2014 opening day starter in CF is a pretty fast track to the show. Victorino can hold down CF and keeps the Sox from being CF needy next off-season when the market basically consists of Ellsbury and Granderson.

At 4/$52 you could quite comfortably top that offer with 4/$56 in my opinion (extra $1M per) and still feel pretty good about the contract. The Sox should absolutely be on top of something like that, as a single 2nd round pick isn't worth the value that Swisher is on that contract. Even keeping Ells, still signing Napoli, and having already signed Victorino. Gomes can be turned into an OF super-sub thanks to the versatility of Swisher, Victorino, and Napoli. Against every LHP you get Gomes in at LF and either give Swisher the day off or have him spell either Victorino or Napoli (the former then either gets a day off himself or relieves Ells in CF, the later either gets the day off or relieves Lavarnway/Salty at catcher or Ortiz at DH).

The permutations of it aren't even all that intricate to go through. The only real ramification of it is that it basically locks the Sox into letting Ellsbury walk, otherwise they cement the OF for the next few years when Kalish, JBJ, and Brentz should all be ready in that window.

[maufman]

BP reporting today that Swisher got an offer of 4/$52 from the Indians.

I am assuming that given out current situation no one would want the Sox to match that now, but I am curious, in an alternate universe would people prefer Swisher at 4/52, or Victorino at 3/39?

Same AAV, just another year. Is Swisher worth the bonus year, assuming a moderate offensive advantage and a substantial defensive disadvantage?

Don't think of it as a "bonus year"; think of it as a 25% larger total commitment. How likely is Swisher to be worth anything close to $13mm when he's 35 years old?

There might be a case for Swisher in a vacuum, but Victorino is the better fit for this team. He'll be an asset in Fenway's spacious RF, and he'll cover the gap between Ellsbury's departure (either via trade or free agency) and JBJ's projected arrival.

The permutations of it aren't even all that intricate to go through. The only real ramification of it is that it basically locks the Sox into letting Ellsbury walk, otherwise they cement the OF for the next few years when Kalish, JBJ, and Brentz should all be ready in that window.

I wouldn't wager even money on one of Kalish and Brentz developing into regular major-league outfielders, let alone both of them.

The only OF prospect I'd worry about not "blocking" is JBJ. Which, of course, means the Sox are "lock[ed] into letting Ellsbury walk" anyway.

[radsoxfan]

BP reporting today that Swisher got an offer of 4/$52 from the Indians.

I am assuming that given out current situation no one would want the Sox to match that now, but I am curious, in an alternate universe would people prefer Swisher at 4/52, or Victorino at 3/39?

Same AAV, just another year. Is Swisher worth the bonus year, assuming a moderate offensive advantage and a substantial defensive disadvantage?

For the sake of argument (and assuming Ben can't convince Napoli to take a team friendly "medical red-flag" discount), I would be comfortable doing the same thing the Red Sox did with Victorino to counter his offer from the Indians. Victorino had a 4/44 offer (supposedly) from the Indians. The Red Sox offered a year shorter, but went 2M/more per year at 3/39. Either Victorino thinks he will be worth more than 5M/year in his age 35 year, or at least he was willing to risk it to avoid playing in Cleveland.

Similarly, I would offer Swisher a 3/45 contract. 15M/year is 2M more per year than the Indians offer, but overall Swisher is risking 7M if he is useless in 3 years. If Swisher would rather play in Cleveland for the extra year and 7M, let him. But if 4/52 offer is real, and thats the best offer Swisher has, I think 3/45 is a very competitive contract.

Personally, I'd rather have Swisher at 3/45 than Napoli at 3/39, especially if Napoli's hip is as bad as it seems.

Edited by radsoxfan, 20 December 2012 - 06:48 PM.

[Yaz4Ever]

For the sake of argument (and assuming Ben can't convince Napoli to take a team friendly "medical red-flag" discount), I would be comfortable doing the same thing the Red Sox did with Victorino to counter his offer from the Indians. Victorino had a 4/44 offer (supposedly) from the Indians. The Red Sox offered a year shorter, but went 2M/more per year at 3/39. Either Victorino thinks he will be worth more than 5M/year in his age 35 year, or at least he was willing to risk it to avoid playing in Cleveland.

Similarly, I would offer Swisher a 3/45 contract. 15M/year is 2M more per year than the Indians offer, but overall Swisher is risking 7M if he is useless in 3 years. If Swisher would rather play in Cleveland for the extra year and 7M, let him. But if 4/52 offer is real, and thats the best offer Swisher has, I think 3/45 is a very competitive contract.

Personally, I'd rather have Swisher at 3/45 than Napoli at 3/39, especially if Napoli's hip is as bad as it seems.

I understand what you're saying, but I'd rather have neither of them and see what we get out of what we've got now at that rate and save the 39-45M. In a perfect world, we'd be pulling a massive trade for Stanton or Upton that no one sees coming, even if it costs us a lot of valuable prospects. If they're not going to go big, they may as well not bother with Swisher (who I like) and Napoli (who could be good at Fenway if not for the probably hip issue) as I don't see either of them carrying us into the postseason.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I understand what you're saying, but I'd rather have neither of them and see what we get out of what we've got now at that rate and save the 39-45M. In a perfect world, we'd be pulling a massive trade for Stanton or Upton that no one sees coming, even if it costs us a lot of valuable prospects. If they're not going to go big, they may as well not bother with Swisher (who I like) and Napoli (who could be good at Fenway if not for the probably hip issue) as I don't see either of them carrying us into the postseason.

Isn't the issue that they don't have anything right now? Of all the positions they're trying to fill with free agents this winter, isn't 1B the most pressing because the current internal options are Gomez or converting an OF (Sands, Kalish, etc) for 2013 and there's nothing in the pipeline for the foreseeable future?

This isn't about finding someone to carry them to the post-season. It's finding someone who can competently perform at the big league level. The "carrying" to the postseason is going to fall on someone else on the roster regardless of who they have playing first base.

[bosockboy]

If they signed Swisher now, they would have complete leverage with Napoli and probably get him to two years.

I wasn't for it but Swisher at anywhere near 4/52 they should jump in and sign him. That's less than they got Drew for 6 winters ago for a comparable player who is durable. If you get Napoli signed then Swisher is your everyday LF and backup 1B.

[someoneanywhere]

They already have leverage with Napoli. He's got a bad hip -- and now all of baseball knows it. If someone anted to swoop in and grab Nap, they'd have done that already. He's going to be in Boston. What's being worked out is the equity: what's fair, given both sides gave their word, given his physical state.

I'd say the odds of Swisher coming here are tiny. They don't want to give up that pick -- if they did, they'd be in the rumor mill for Soriano, and we're hearing nothing about that -- or the draft money. It's not just about the pick (possible picks, given money is also involved) but about the other moves they've made that protect the farm. Any major roster move from here on out is a trade, and that might involve moving prospects. If they do that, they're going to want to replenish inventory. They don't want to move the prospects and also lose the pick(s) that might replace what has been traded.

[Drek717]

I wouldn't wager even money on one of Kalish and Brentz developing into regular major-league outfielders, let alone both of them.

The only OF prospect I'd worry about not "blocking" is JBJ. Which, of course, means the Sox are "lock[ed] into letting Ellsbury walk" anyway.

Sure, but my point is that one of the three will be ready in the next three years, requiring an OF opening. JBJ is the prohibitive favorite for sure, but the end result is the same - Ellsbury walks to open a hole for someone else.

But then, the signing of Victorino instead of waiting out Swisher's market only really makes sense (at least to me) if that has been their intention all along. Let Ells walk, likely recoup a couple draft picks, and Victorino is the buffer in case JBJ isn't ready for 2014.

[OttoC]

...JBJ is the prohibitive favorite for sure....

You do know that Bradley's OBP dropped 107 points and his SLG dropped 89 points when he moved to Double A from High A last year with almost an identical number of plate appearances? Isn't it just a little early to be calling him a "prohibitive favorite?"

[SoxScout]

You do know that Bradley's OBP dropped 107 points and his SLG dropped 89 points when he moved to Double A from High A last year with almost an identical number of plate appearances? Isn't it just a little early to be calling him a "prohibitive favorite?"

Were you expecting his OBP to stay at .479? .376 is still kind of decent. His isolated power was exactly the same as it was in Salem and of the 131 players with at least 200 PA in the Eastern League his wRC+ was 27th, with only 4 players higher than him at his age or younger. And that's not even the best part of his game.

FWIW, those players are Aaron Hicks, Wilmer Flores, Cody Asche, and Oswaldo Arcia. Some of the top prospects in baseball.

Edited by SoxScout, 21 December 2012 - 11:26 AM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

In addition to SoxScout's point, would you consider Kalish or Brentz to be more likely to end up a starter for the Sox in the next two years? I could see an argument for Kalish, I suppose, but Brentz shouldn't even be in that conversation and JBJ's future seems more secure than Kalish's at this point. Maybe Kalish bounces back from the shoulder injury and gets back on the track he was on before getting hurt. That would be great, in fact, as he was an excellent prospect before the injury and was at AA a full year younger than Bradley, but at this moment, barring a Kalish type injury, I would probably be inclined to bet on JBJ being a starter before Kalish.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 21 December 2012 - 11:36 AM.

[Drek717]

You do know that Bradley's OBP dropped 107 points and his SLG dropped 89 points when he moved to Double A from High A last year with almost an identical number of plate appearances? Isn't it just a little early to be calling him a "prohibitive favorite?"

I've never expected Bradley to be Ted Williams levels of contact hitting with plus CF defense so I'm pretty cool with the offensive drop he saw in AA last year. Did you really think he was going to continue having a .359 BA going forward as well? That was where his OBP drop came from, an 88 point drop in BA.

He jumped to AA part way through the year and still posted a .809 OPS, hit twice the HRs despite fewer total hits, his double rate only changed from 1:3.23 to 1:3.87, and his steals while fewer had the same success rate (72%). So the only skill that got seriously clipped with the jump from High A to AA (which is considered one of the largest talent jumps) is contact. His defense still held up, his power didn't diminish due to superior pitching, and he didn't start pressing and lose strike zone recognition. He just didn't make strong contact as frequently.

And if that is the metric you want to use what does that say about his competition? Brentz saw a very similar drop going from low to high A in 2011. When he saw AA pitching for a whole year he rebounded to a mid-point by the way. Kalish saw a 93 point drop when going from high A to AA, and that was with only a 33 point drop in BA, showing that his plate discipline was diminished by superior pitching. We saw this same dip for Kalish when he went from AA to AAA in 2010 by the way, where his BA stayed nearly the same but superior competition pushed his OBP down nearly 50 points.

So again, Bradley is clearly the prohibitive favorite. That doesn't mean he's the only one who pans out, just that he's the most likely candidate at the moment which is just fine because he's also the best of the three defensively.

Edited by Drek717, 21 December 2012 - 11:54 AM.

[OttoC]

Were you expecting his OBP to stay at .479? .376 is still kind of decent. His isolated power was exactly the same as it was in Salem and of the 131 players with at least 200 PA in the Eastern League his wRC+ was 27th, with only 4 players higher than him at his age or younger. And that's not even the best part of his game....

And if he has a similar drop on reaching AAA, he might not even make the majors. I saw him play several times this summer, and I'm sorry, but I didn't see a player I thought was head-and-shoulders above the other players on the field, either at bat or in the field. Maybe he will develop into a nice player; I hope he does, but I need to see more.

[maufman]

You do know that Bradley's OBP dropped 107 points and his SLG dropped 89 points when he moved to Double A from High A last year with almost an identical number of plate appearances? Isn't it just a little early to be calling him a "prohibitive favorite?"

Drek said JBJ is a prohibitive favorite compared to Kalish and Brentz. I think that's right -- neither of those two is likely to make The Show as anything but a part-time player.

I agree that JBJ is overrated among SoSHers. He's our second or third-best prospect (depending what you think of Barnes), so there's a tendency to lump him in with Bogaerts. In reality, though, Bogaerts is the organization's only true blue-chipper -- he's probably going to hit some top 10 lists this spring, and I don't think anyone else would be in anyone's top 50.

This is why I've come around on the Victorino signing. Ellsbury probably won't be here beyond 2013, and with his injury history (and the possibility of a midseason trade), I'm not exactly counting on 150 games from him. JBJ is not an even money bet to be ready to start 2014, and even if he is ready, service time considerations will strongly counsel keeping him in the minors until at least June. And of course, JBJ might not be ready until 2015, and there's still a significant risk he'll fizzle altogether. Add it all up, and there's at least a 50/50 chance Victorino will play more games in CF than RF over the next three years, even though he's the presumptive RF at the moment. None of the other FA options brought that flexibility to the table.

Edited by maufman, 21 December 2012 - 12:06 PM.

[someoneanywhere]

And if he has a similar drop on reaching AAA, he might not even make the majors. I saw him play several times this summer, and I'm sorry, but I didn't see a player I thought was head-and-shoulders above the other players on the field, either at bat or in the field. Maybe he will develop into a nice player; I hope he does, but I need to see more.

Which is, incidentally, exactly what you would see in a ton of scouting reports on him that otherwise peg him as a top prospect. He is not going to blow anyone away by the eye test: and never has. He finds a way to be where he needs to be without looking spectacular; he works at bats without looking like a killer; he makes his way smartly and decisively around the bases without looking like a risk taker. If you go looking for five tools you think you may have seen one.

That's in the book on him, and it's been there since they started keeping a book on him. But he's an impact player. There's a reason all the trade discussions initiated by other clubs start with him.

[Drek717]

And if he has a similar drop on reaching AAA, he might not even make the majors. I saw him play several times this summer, and I'm sorry, but I didn't see a player I thought was head-and-shoulders above the other players on the field, either at bat or in the field. Maybe he will develop into a nice player; I hope he does, but I need to see more.

That's the entire point to Bradley's game though. He's already a well developed grinder who plays strong D and has high level plate discipline. He's Kevin Youkilis with plus CF defense potential. Much like Youks he has samples in the minors of hitting .350 and samples of hitting .270, but in all samples his strong OBP pump is present. Much like Youkilis he's shown minimal HR power in the minors, but ok doubles power.

That doesn't mean Bradley is going to develop the HR power of Youkilis when he gets older, but if Kevin Youkilis never developed that HR power and stayed at '06/'07 Youk numbers he's still a quality player, as a CF he'd have been a beast.

Just like Youk he never passes the eye test for being elite either.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

Swisher signs 4/$56 deal with Tribe, per Feinsand:

BREAKING: Nick Swisher has agreed to a four-year, $56 million deal with the Indians. Vesting $14M option for a 5th year could make it $70M.

https://twitter.com/...860310757527552

[Rudy Pemberton]

There goes Plan B. Today's article in the globe made it sound like the Napoli deal is in serious jeopardy, which leaves Laroche or, potentially Berkman, I guess? It's surprising that the Sox didn't even bring Swisher in for a visit. I suspect that when they found out he had a (gasp) four year offer they were no longer in on him. Oh well.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

I think it was more that they didn't want to give up the pick...especially to the Yankees.

[AlNipper49]

At a potential five years why wish to even have him in for a visit. There is no way in hell I'd want him at those years. It's entirely possible that was signaled early in the process and the brain trust wisely held off.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There goes Plan B. Today's article in the globe made it sound like the Napoli deal is in serious jeopardy, which leaves Laroche or, potentially Berkman, I guess? It's surprising that the Sox didn't even bring Swisher in for a visit. I suspect that when they found out he had a (gasp) four year offer they were no longer in on him. Oh well.

Four years plus a vesting option plus losing their second round pick to the Yankees (yes, I know it's not a direct transaction). Something tells me the pick and that he was seeking more than three years is what put them off the trail, and they never were anywhere near close to any serious pursuit of him.

[someoneanywhere]

There goes Plan B. Today's article in the globe made it sound like the Napoli deal is in serious jeopardy, which leaves Laroche or, potentially Berkman, I guess? It's surprising that the Sox didn't even bring Swisher in for a visit. I suspect that when they found out he had a (gasp) four year offer they were no longer in on him. Oh well.

Eh, what now? Swisher was never in the plan. You might as well say that since the Angels won't trade us Pujols, we've got to move on to Plan C.

Meanwhile, the Sox just traded Jerry Sands. They did this while all of this is going on with Napoli. I'm thinking maybe the deal isn't quite in as much jeopardy as the Glob might make it appear.

[Div School Sox Fan]

I agree that JBJ is overrated among SoSHers. He's our second or third-best prospect (depending what you think of Barnes), so there's a tendency to lump him in with Bogaerts. In reality, though, Bogaerts is the organization's only true blue-chipper -- he's probably going to hit some top 10 lists this spring, and I don't think anyone else would be in anyone's top 50.

No question that Bogaerts is the best prospect in the system by a significant margin, but Bradley was #36 on John Sickels' midseason top 120 list. I expect Bradley will make most top 50s and probably a couple top 25s. He's a major prospect. Rubby De La Rosa would make quite a few top 50s and better if he still had eligibility. The system right now is Bogaerts - gap - Bradley, (De La Rosa) - gap - Barnes - Webster - everyone else.

Edited by Div School Sox Fan, 23 December 2012 - 01:14 PM.

[OttoC]

Since both Hamilton and Swisher are off the table, shouldn't this thread be closed or at least have the title changed?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

No question that Bogaerts is the best prospect in the system by a significant margin, but Bradley was #36 on John Sickels' midseason top 120 list. I expect Bradley will make most top 50s and probably a couple top 25s. He's a major prospect. Rubby De La Rosa would make quite a few top 50s and better if he still had eligibility. The system right now is Bogaerts - gap - Bradley, (De La Rosa) - gap - Barnes - Webster - everyone else.

It also bears mentioning that Portland is a pretty tough hitter's park in general, likely due to the cold weather for much of the season.

[OttoC]

It also bears mentioning that Portland is a pretty tough hitter's park in general, likely due to the cold weather for much of the season.

The park factors for Portland in 2012 (http://minorleaguece...com/parkfactors) show:

PF(runs) = 112 (highest in league)
PF(hits) = 106 (highest in league)
PF(doubles) = 119 (highest in league)
PF(home runs) = 105 (fifth highest in league)

And what do you consider cold weather?

[redsoxstiff]

Au Voir Ms Hamilton Et Swisher...Let the beatings a begin...

[adam42381]

Might as well lock this one. Swisher has signed the contract with Cleveland for 4/$56 per MLB Network.

Edited by adam42381, 03 January 2013 - 04:52 PM.