153 replies to this topic

[Jed Zeppelin]

Passing on signing good players because you will miss out on one draft pick seems like an overreaction to me, given that there's a good chance the guy the Sox miss out on drafting never amounts to anything. I get that you don't want to make a habit of it, but if you can get Swisher on a fair 3-4 year deal, you can flip Ellsbury for a prospect that makes up for the "lost" draft pick, right?

Sure, as long as losing the pick and money from the bonus pool doesn't affect the team's ability to sign the best player it can get its hand on with the #7 pick.

[67WasBest]

And just in case anyone had any bright ideas about Choo, he was just dealt to the Reds in a 3 way.

Does Choo fit in the Reds OF? Bruce is in RF and Ludwick was just resigned for LF. They needed a CF who could hit leadoff. Is it possible they obtained him to flip him? Sorry about the hijack for what is likely a non Red Sox issue; but could this be a flip, with smaller pieces added both ways, for Ellsbury?

EDIT: Never mind, just saw quotes from Jocketty stating he was going to play CF and hit leadoff for them.

Edited by 67WasBest, 11 December 2012 - 11:25 PM.

[Corsi]

Heyman:

barring a trade (& ellsbury deal very unlikely), #redsox OF is set. so no swish.

https://twitter.com/...896440229629952

[jsinger121]

Hopefully Heyman is right. I do not want to waste money on Swisher.

[JimBoSox9]

OF is set, but Swisher could be someone the Sox are still looking at for 1B if the Napoli deal falls apart. I have no idea if he's open to being a full-time 1B but he's likely better there defensively than Napoli anyways.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Passing on signing good players because you will miss out on one draft pick seems like an overreaction to me, given that there's a good chance the guy the Sox miss out on drafting never amounts to anything. I get that you don't want to make a habit of it, but if you can get Swisher on a fair 3-4 year deal, you can flip Ellsbury for a prospect that makes up for the "lost" draft pick, right?

Not saying all players. Obviously, Hamilton on a 3/$20M (not saying he's going to get that but just as a hypothetical) would be worth the 2nd round pick. Just don't think the way the team is currently made up, I'd spend a 2nd round pick for the privilege of paying market rate to Nick Swisher for his three years.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Swisher contempt really puzzles me, and I have to think it's bound up with Yankee hate, which just means that we're dumber than Kevin Youkilis.

He's a good player. A really good player. A genuine switch-hitter with good power and excellent plate discipline, who is at least a fringe-average RF by all available statistical measures--regardless of the fact that he can look a little frantic out there--and can also play first.

Oh yeah, and he has averaged about 620 PA a year over the past 8 years, only twice dipping under 600 and never under 500. The dude is a rock.

We should want this guy. Badly.

[glennhoffmania]

The Swisher contempt really puzzles me, and I have to think it's bound up with Yankee hate, which just means that we're dumber than Kevin Youkilis.

He's a good player. A really good player. A genuine switch-hitter with good power and excellent plate discipline, who is at least a fringe-average RF by all available statistical measures--regardless of the fact that he can look a little frantic out there--and can also play first.

Oh yeah, and he has averaged about 620 PA a year over the past 8 years, only twice dipping under 600 and never under 500. The dude is a rock.

We should want this guy. Badly.

I don't think it's contempt you're hearing. It's that the deals being discussed seem like an overpay, and they have 4 OFs already. Like I said before, I don't think that the upgrade that Swisher would bring over the current options is worth $60m. In a vacuum, yeah he's a good player and he could be a good fit, if you ignore the roster issues and the cost.

[rembrat]

Why do you keep referring to it as $60MM when it'll be $15MM a year which is hardly a problem for the Red Sox. We should want good players.

[glennhoffmania]

Because it's not a one year deal for $15m. Swisher is a nice player but I don't think he's worth a 4 year, $60m deal. You're free to disagree, but I don't see why the length isn't also relevant.

[redsoxstiff]

A fear ,caution .worry ,phobia in most threads concerning the word "overpay"...we aren't overpaying or maybe we are...

If the FO is overpaying and intend to continue...we will continue to be mediocre...{overpaying the wrong people]...

[Savin Hillbilly]

Because it's not a one year deal for $15m. Swisher is a nice player but I don't think he's worth a 4 year, $60m deal. You're free to disagree, but I don't see why the length isn't also relevant.

The length is certainly relevant. I think it's damn near impossible to make a case that Swisher isn't worth $15M a year right now. It might be easier to make a case that it's a bad idea to give him four years.

OTOH, back in August you have Dave Cameron making a pretty good case that Swisher is worth 5/85:

http://www.fangraphs...-swisher-worth/

I think 4/60 is a solid deal, and if the Sox can get him for that, we should jump on it. Yes, I know we theoretically don't have a spot for him. I'd say if we have to deal a subsidized Gomes to make it work, that's what we do. I've suspected all along that we signed Gomes as much for insurance against the failure of other OF moves as anything else.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think 4/60 is a solid deal, and if the Sox can get him for that, we should jump on it. Yes, I know we theoretically don't have a spot for him. I'd say if we have to deal a subsidized Gomes to make it work, that's what we do. I've suspected all along that we signed Gomes as much for insurance against the failure of other OF moves as anything else.

Ignore this post please..

Edited by wade boggs chicken dinner, 12 December 2012 - 10:15 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If 4/60 is a solid deal, the Red Sox should just give him 5/65 with a player option after year 4, if that would save the draft pick.

Is there a nuance to the new CBA rule that would void the pick if the team spends a certain amount of money or offers a certain number of years? How would going from 4/60 to 5/65 have any impact on the pick they would lose? What am I missing?

[TomRicardo]

As soon as Hamilton signs, Swisher's price is likely to go up.

Not really. We are starting to get late into the offseason. Teams are starting to sew up their rosters as well as their budget for next year. There is less open spots and less money on the table. No one is dying to get Swisher on their team and no team is getting a boost of ticket sales because Swisher just signed. He is a decent player but below all star level.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Is there a nuance to the new CBA rule that would void the pick if the team spends a certain amount of money or offers a certain number of years? How would going from 4/60 to 5/65 have any impact on the pick they would lose? What am I missing?

No, my bad, I misunderstood the rules. Carry on.

Edited by wade boggs chicken dinner, 12 December 2012 - 10:16 PM.

[Sprowl]

The Swisher contempt really puzzles me, and I have to think it's bound up with Yankee hate, which just means that we're dumber than Kevin Youkilis.

He's a good player. A really good player. A genuine switch-hitter with good power and excellent plate discipline, who is at least a fringe-average RF by all available statistical measures--regardless of the fact that he can look a little frantic out there--and can also play first.

Oh yeah, and he has averaged about 620 PA a year over the past 8 years, only twice dipping under 600 and never under 500. The dude is a rock.

We should want this guy. Badly.

If we want Swisher, it would have to be to play LF in Fenway. Swisher's defects as an outfielder (he is klutzy and prone to misjudging trajectories) were minimized in the Bidet. Unfortunately, the team has already overpaid another LF to do what Swisher does best, which is to bat RH against LHP. If another of those is what the Red Sox really want, they could get Cody Ross for less than Swisher.

The Swisher plate discipline argument is good within a team framework. The Red Sox abandoned that framework several years ago, and can't reassemble it at short notice. Rebuilding plate discipline and out avoidance will take several years, and in the meantime, this will be a free-swinging, aggressive team, and the front office should roll with it. Swisher is the wrong guy for the wrong team at the wrong time.

Pass on Swisher and Hamilton. This year is not the year to spend big on whatever talent happens to be available. Keep the powder dry.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Swisher plate discipline argument is good within a team framework. The Red Sox abandoned that framework several years ago, and can't reassemble it at short notice. Rebuilding plate discipline and out avoidance will take several years, and in the meantime, this will be a free-swinging, aggressive team, and the front office should roll with it.

Plate discipline is not something that works only if other people are doing it too (though obviously it works better the more people are doing it). A guy on base is a guy on base, and a 6-pitch plate appearance is a 6-pitch plate appearance, and both have inherent value.

Also, the argument that "what Swisher does best....is to bat RH against LHP" may be technically true, but only by a modest margin, and as a characterization of him as a hitter, it's seriously misleading. His career wOBA vs. RHP is .353 (vs. .373 vs. LHP), and in two of the past three years it's been over .370. There is not even a shadow of a platoon player about Swisher. He's a true switch-hitter.

Finally, you may think that "this will be a free-swinging, aggressive team," but the Sox FO clearly disagrees. They have, in the past six months, abandoned two starters with abysmal walk rates (Crawford and Aviles), and of their offseason acquisitions so far, the only one with a career walk rate below 10% is Victorino at 7.8%. Napoli and Ross both have career P/PA over 4. Gomes has been at 3.9 or better the past three seasons. Whatever they have been, the Sox are clearly trying to become a selective, grinding, pitch-count-spiking team again.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Every player has pros and cons; that Swisher isn't a great RF defensively is off set by the fact that he can actually hit. A Sox lineup with Swisher seems a lot better than one without him. If he will sign a 3-4 year deal, why wouldn't you do it? A Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Swisher, Middlebrooks, Victorino, Ross / Lavarnway, SS lineup starts to look pretty formidable.

[OttoC]

If for some reason, Napoli does not pass his physical, then Swisher might be a good addition at first base.

[crow216]

As a Yankee fan, I'll miss the heck out of Swisher's personality. Dude just goes out, plays hard, has a good time, and doesn't cause trouble. He's the perfect player to slot into the lineup and forget he's there then get surprised that there's 90rbi's and 25hrs in October. Is that worth 15m a year? Why wouldn't it be? He's a quirky motherfucker and he's gonna love playing in Fenway. Even if it's a slight overpay, how much are we talking about in this market where seemingly anyone can get a big contract?

Just be prepared to be smacked in the face 10x a week with Swisher commercials.

[Jed Zeppelin]

If for some reason, Napoli does not pass his physical, then Swisher might be a good addition at first base.

If Napoli falls through for whatever reason I think Swisher is not just a good addition, but a necessary one.

[Harry Hooper]

If Napoli falls through for whatever reason I think Swisher is not just a good addition, but a necessary one.

No need to stop there. Sign Swisher and trade for Morneau and the end result is a nice Gomes/Morneau platoon with Swisher playing every day as the swingman between the two positions.

[Savin Hillbilly]

No need to stop there. Sign Swisher and trade for Morneau and the end result is a nice Gomes/Morneau platoon with Swisher playing every day as the swingman between the two positions.

Would he sign on for that role, though? Seems like a tough sell.

[Edelpeddle]

The Mariners look like the might be the biggest threat, though like other interested teams, they aren't expected to be willing to meet Hamilton's seven-year goal. There has been little evidence of the Brewers or Red Sox being serious players in recent days.

http://www.cbssports...tays-with-texas

[Corsi]

An industry source said today the Red Sox “remain engaged” with free agent Nick Swisher, who could be a possible alternative to Napoli at first base.

http://www.bostonher...th-mike-napoli/

[YTF]

Well, they ain't gettin' Hamilton. Lets see how long it takes for Swisher to find a landing spot.

[rembrat]

Would he sign on for that role, though? Seems like a tough sell.

When the Yankees traded for Swisher they told him he was going to play 1B not that he had a say in the matter but he didn't protest. And when Horseface went down last season, Swisher covered for him and didn't say a peep. I don't think he cares all that much where he plays.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If the Napoli contract doesn't fall apart over injury clauses, I'd be surprised to see the Sox forfeit their second round pick and slot money it would take to sign Swisher. I think he's a fine player and in another off season, I'd probably be all about him, but with the obvious focus on protecting the farm and avoiding long term commitments, it would feel like breaking away from the plan for them to give in and throw Swisher 4 years at 15 per.

Maybe I'm overvaluing the extra million in slot money next June or the what they can grab with something around the 50th pick in the draft, but if they have Napoli I'm not seeing the improvement over a Gomes, Ellsbury, Victorino outfield being worth enough to justify the contract plus the loss of value in the draft next year. Of course, if they move Ellsbury in a trade, it would make more sense.

[Edelpeddle]

Swisher visiting teams in person next week.

https://twitter.com/...353037573730304

[Rough Carrigan]

Swisher visiting teams in person next week.

https://twitter.com/...353037573730304

He'll be the guy who points at the sky because his cab door opened and closed without any trouble.

[Edelpeddle]

He'll be the guy who points at the sky because his cab door opened and closed without any trouble.

He doesn't point, he just looks up like he's having a seizure before every pitch.

[FanSinceBoggs]

Do the Red Sox have enough offense at this point? Or do they need to add another bat especially against RHP?

Swisher is most effective against RHP, something the Red Sox need. He can also play first base from time to time, which would allow the Sox to get a little more offense out of their lineup (with Napoli moving to catcher).

I'm not comfortable with Kalish in LF against RHP. I would prefer Swisher.

[Cellar-Door]

He doesn't point, he just looks up like he's having a seizure before every pitch.

We're really going to make fun of his tribute to his dead grandparents who raised him?

[catomatic]

If the Napoli contract doesn't fall apart over injury clauses, I'd be surprised to see the Sox forfeit their second round pick and slot money it would take to sign Swisher. I think he's a fine player and in another off season, I'd probably be all about him, but with the obvious focus on protecting the farm and avoiding long term commitments, it would feel like breaking away from the plan for them to give in and throw Swisher 4 years at 15 per.

Maybe I'm overvaluing the extra million in slot money next June or the what they can grab with something around the 50th pick in the draft, but if they have Napoli I'm not seeing the improvement over a Gomes, Ellsbury, Victorino outfield being worth enough to justify the contract plus the loss of value in the draft next year. Of course, if they move Ellsbury in a trade, it would make more sense.

+1 emphatically.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If the Napoli contract doesn't fall apart over injury clauses, I'd be surprised to see the Sox forfeit their second round pick and slot money it would take to sign Swisher.

I see your point; OTOH, I would think this year of all years we could afford to sign a qualifying-offer guy because our top pick was protected. If it's off limits this year, then it would presumably be off limits in any year. You're always going to lose a pick, and most years it'll be a better pick. What am I missing?

[Edelpeddle]

We're really going to make fun of his tribute to his dead grandparents who raised him?

Yes.

[rembrat]

We're really going to make fun of his tribute to his dead grandparents who raised him?

Baseball can not be fun or personal in any way. Unless you are Dominican then you can do whatever the fuck you want because you are 'colorful.'

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I see your point; OTOH, I would think this year of all years we could afford to sign a qualifying-offer guy because our top pick was protected. If it's off limits this year, then it would presumably be off limits in any year. You're always going to lose a pick, and most years it'll be a better pick. What am I missing?

You're not really missing anything, but there could be a bunch of variables at play. Maybe they like what they can do with two picks in the top 50 or so next June and don't want to give that up. Maybe they plan to hold onto Ellsbury for 2013 and to let the draft pick they'll get for him walking replace the one they'll lose by signing someone else and truly believe they'll finishing near the top of the list, so that the trade off won't represent much of a loss in value. Maybe they really like this year's draft class, despite reports that it won't be a great one. Maybe they just don't think Swisher is worth the cost of the pick, the slot money and the 15 million a year they'd have to pay him without a more pressing need.

Or maybe I'm way off base and they plan to make Swisher a really strong offer. Guess we'll see soon enough.

[nvalvo]

You're not really missing anything, but there could be a bunch of variables at play. Maybe they like what they can do with two picks in the top 50 or so next June and don't want to give that up. Maybe they plan to hold onto Ellsbury for 2013 and to let the draft pick they'll get for him walking replace the one they'll lose by signing someone else and truly believe they'll finishing near the top of the list, so that the trade off won't represent much of a loss in value. Maybe they really like this year's draft class, despite reports that it won't be a great one. Maybe they just don't think Swisher is worth the cost of the pick, the slot money and the 15 million a year they'd have to pay him without a more pressing need.

Or maybe I'm way off base and they plan to make Swisher a really strong offer. Guess we'll see soon enough.

I think the key issue from among these is the slot money associated with the 2nd round pick. The Sox (hopefully) won't get too many chances to make #7 picks. That draft pick is really the most important thing that will happen for the club next year. Our last #7 pick was Trot Nixon; recent #7s have included excellent players like Kershaw, Tulowitzki, Fielder and Markakis. Hell, Frank Thomas was a #7 pick. If they do a good job drafting/developing that pick — maybe even picking a safe second rounder and reallocating some budget to their top pick — it could really alter the face of the franchise during their next projected window, 2015-2020.

Put another way: how much will Kershaw's pre-FA years have been worth to LA? Sure, Matt LaPorta looks to be a bust, but guys with this kind of pedigree regularly produce 20+ WAR during their first six seasons.

[redsoxstiff]

The Swisher contempt really puzzles me, and I have to think it's bound up with Yankee hate, which just means that we're dumber than Kevin Youkilis.

He's a good player. A really good player. A genuine switch-hitter with good power and excellent plate discipline, who is at least a fringe-average RF by all available statistical measures--regardless of the fact that he can look a little frantic out there--and can also play first.

Agreed...if shoved hard...An Ellsbury trade would put Vic. back in Centerfield...RF and 1B with a soupcon of DH...whats not to like, except paying for his service...for those who play CFO...

Oh yeah, and he has averaged about 620 PA a year over the past 8 years, only twice dipping under 600 and never under 500. The dude is a rock.

We should want this guy. Badly.

Agreed...RF, allows VIC to go back in Center and if Jacoby is part of a beeg deal...good enough...

The quasi-CFOs will grit their teeth on the moolah...but now that God has signed with the Angels ...the price on Swisher should be a tad high...

We get RF,a little 1B and a soupcon of DH...

Let us not fornicate the canine on this one...

Edited by redsoxstiff, 14 December 2012 - 05:12 PM.

[Doctor G]

Getting Swisher for his 32-35 year old seasons doesn't seem like an unreasonable gamble. The possibility of Swisher Pedroia and Victorino as an opposition annoying core of the lineup is very appealing to me. This would be a good step in the direction of reestablishing a home field presence, which would make the integration of the kids onto the big team a lot easier.

Nothing helps a young pitcher more than a productive grinding offense.

Edited by Doctor G, 14 December 2012 - 11:26 PM.

[redsoxstiff]

No need to stop there. Sign Swisher and trade for Morneau and the end result is a nice Gomes/Morneau platoon with Swisher playing every day as the swingman between the two positions.

This I'm liking...Offense may have to cover mucho ground if Farrell doesn't straighten out the pitching staff...I think he may but that can only make the offense better too.....

[dylanmarsh]

The Swisher debate reeks of the 2005 Johnny Damon debate. Same age, same arguments about whether he was worth a four year contract. Although a different skill set, I think Swisher is better than Damon and he gives the team position and lineup flexibility, while grinding out at bats and wearing out the opposition's pitching. Let's get back to the mid-00's mindset of high OPS/OBP and find players that fit the mold. Sure, he looks like a douche but he's exactly the type of player we should be going for.

[redsoxstiff]

Always room for a douche ...It is our way of baseball life...

[OCD SS]

The Swisher debate reeks of the 2005 Johnny Damon debate. Same age, same arguments about whether he was worth a four year contract.

Swisher and Damon debates are not analagous. The central concerns with Damon were that his defense in CF was becoming untenable, and the Sox had Manny in LF (who had proved pretty unmovable). There was also the problem that Damon would've received 10-5 rights as part of the deal, and would've similarly hampered roster flexibility. At least part of the issue depends on the construction of the team and not the player, but Swisher allows for positional flexibility that Damon doesn't. You can argue that Swisher in Fenway's RF would be a disaster (and I'd agree with you), but he could move between both OF corners in a pinch and also plays a credible 1B while providing legitimate offense at those positions. I don't think you'll see the Sox give up on the importance of defense (especially up the middle), or acquiring young, new talent (which is much harder under the new CBA). The key now IMO is that the Sox are assembling a competitive bridge to the next core of talent in the minors, and they're going to need a 1Bman.

I think the thread title is wrong in that Swisher isn't a Hamilton replacement; he's either an alternative to Napoli or an option in RF is the Sox find a good deal for Ellsbury that brings back pitching or good young talent. If either of those things isn't in the cards then there's no reason to get hung up on Swisher's offensive profile.

[drbretto]

Always room for a douche ...It is our way of baseball life...

If Swisher was on the Red Sox he'd be OUR douche and we'd love him.

[dylanmarsh]

Swisher and Damon debates are not analagous. The central concerns with Damon were that his defense in CF was becoming untenable, and the Sox had Manny in LF (who had proved pretty unmovable). There was also the problem that Damon would've received 10-5 rights as part of the deal, and would've similarly hampered roster flexibility. At least part of the issue depends on the construction of the team and not the player, but Swisher allows for positional flexibility that Damon doesn't. You can argue that Swisher in Fenway's RF would be a disaster (and I'd agree with you), but he could move between both OF corners in a pinch and also plays a credible 1B while providing legitimate offense at those positions. I don't think you'll see the Sox give up on the importance of defense (especially up the middle), or acquiring young, new talent (which is much harder under the new CBA). The key now IMO is that the Sox are assembling a competitive bridge to the next core of talent in the minors, and they're going to need a 1Bman.

I think the thread title is wrong in that Swisher isn't a Hamilton replacement; he's either an alternative to Napoli or an option in RF is the Sox find a good deal for Ellsbury that brings back pitching or good young talent. If either of those things isn't in the cards then there's no reason to get hung up on Swisher's offensive profile.

Points taken. I had completely forgotten about the 10-5/Manny dilemma. So, it does differ in that respect. I clearly remember folks having a discussion about Damon's age and whether he was ready to decline and decline quickly. That was the basis for my post.

Anyway, I'm on board with Swisher as the full time LF and to spell Napoli at first. I'd hate to see him try to man RF at Fenway but he's far too valuable to not go full bore with this opportunity.

[OCD SS]

Points taken. I had completely forgotten about the 10-5/Manny dilemma. So, it does differ in that respect. I clearly remember folks having a discussion about Damon's age and whether he was ready to decline and decline quickly. That was the basis for my post.

Well, there was also the issue that Damon seemed pretty old compared to his listed age. My recollection is that despite very good games totals, he seemed to be playing hurt a lot and it was dragging his performance down. Another 4 years felt a lot riskier. I haven't been paying enough attention to Swisher's injury history to comment, but he feels a bit sturdier, and his production isn't nearly as dependent on his legs...

Anyway, I'm on board with Swisher as the full time LF and to spell Napoli at first. I'd hate to see him try to man RF at Fenway but he's far too valuable to not go full bore with this opportunity.

I'm not so sure. At that point you're giving up the draft pick & allotment to upgrade Gomes/ Kalish to Swisher. Setting aside that they'll be flushing Gomes' contract even before it starts, I'm not sure that upgrade is worth it if Napoli is installed at 1B. It looks to me like the roster starts to calcify and loose the flexibility they've built in.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm not so sure. At that point you're giving up the draft pick & allotment to upgrade Gomes/ Kalish to Swisher. Setting aside that they'll be flushing Gomes' contract even before it starts, I'm not sure that upgrade is worth it if Napoli is installed at 1B. It looks to me like the roster starts to calcify and loose the flexibility they've built in.

Much as I like Swisher, I agree that at this point, signing him only really makes sense if (a) the Napoli deal falls through or (b) they deal Ellsbury.