I figure one of the most important factors should be an opponent’s record coming into each game. This is the best way to assign a degree of difficulty to each win. You should not get bonus points for anything a team did after they played you, nor should you necessarily be penalized if they stunk afterwards. Therefore, I am assigning points to each win equal to the number of wins the team you beat had coming into the game.
The second important factor I believe to be considered is when the victory was earned. Wins should be worth more as you run through the season. The NFL season has become a war of attrition as we all know. As players get beat up and injuries mount we generally start to separate the contenders from the pretenders. So, I am assigning one point for a win in a team’s first game of the season, two for their second game, and on up to 16 points for a win in the final game of the season. Not really sure what if anything should be done to account for teams resting starters once they have things locked up.
Finally, I am giving one bonus point for a win on the road. I am not sure again here if this adds enough weight or if perhaps it should be based on the specific venue. For example, extra points for winning in Seattle…not so much for winning in England vs. St. Louis.
I am not deducting any points for a loss, no matter how ugly or who it comes against. I am merely looking for a relative value of wins and, of course a loss nets you zero points.
In any case, I total up all the points and divide by the number of games played to determine a “value of wins”. I think it’s a pretty interesting way to look at it and if nothing else I enjoyed running through the exercise. Another way to look at it is the “value of wins” less the actual wins or “strength of wins”. Kind of give you an idea of whose record is most inflated (Atlanta being the biggest "Paper Tiger". For what it’s worth here is how the top teams look thus far:
|Value of Wins||Actual Wins||Strength of Wins|
Please let me know your thoughts, opinions, possible improvements...or if not worthy of a thread, just bag it!