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49ers at Patriots--Sunday Night Football


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#1 RedOctober3829


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 11:13 AM

Great win last night, but time to move on. It's a litmus test to see how they handle success especially on a short week. They need to play a near perfect game to win this week again. SF's pass rush is as good as Houston's with The Smith's on the line and Willis/Bowmann as LBs.

Defensively, they will have a really tough time matching up with the 2 TEs. Vernon Davis and Delani Walker are as good of a tandem outside of Gronk/Hernandez as there is. Then, there is some guy named Randy Moss there too. The D-line will have another challenge with SF's running game this week as well.

Again, as great as last night was it won't mean anything if they don't follow it up with a win on Sunday night. The goal for the rest of the regular season is to get a bye and you have to think they will need to win out in order to get it.

I'd like to keep starting these into next September, so keep on winning.

#2 DeJesus Built My Hotrod


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:09 PM

The Patriots should win this game.

At the risk of repeating a post in the Texans game-thread, I think the key to this game is Kaepernick. The last few weeks the Rams and then Dolphins slowed him down a bit.
If New England can keep him from breaking off a big run and get him to throw the football, they will likely get some chances for take-aways. Kaepernick likes to force throws because he's got a great arm and his athleticism leads him to try to keep plays alive when a more experienced QB might simply look to protect the ball.

On defense, RO, nails it. The 49ers pass rush is relentless (Aldon Smith is a force of nature), their LBs are beasts and their secondary is very good with Goldson, Whitner and Rodgers. That said, the Dolphins managed to move the ball at times with some mid-range passes to Bess and Hartline in spaces between the LBs and the secondary. With the Patriots receiving crew's versatility, its a fair bet that they will try to do the same.

Its safe to say that this will be the game of the year thus far.

#3 ifmanis5


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:28 PM

RedOctober with the hot hand. Keep it Glazin'.

#4 Jnai


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:37 PM

Hit. Kaepernick. Hard.

The option/pistol/whatever is gimmick bullshit that relies on your QB being faster and stronger and sexier than everyone else on the field. Kaepernick is going to run the ball and needs to be destroyed when he does. He's going to fake running the ball and needs to be destroyed when he does.

I'm normally not a big guy for hitting the QB, roughing the passer, whatever, but when the QB declares as a runner, your best shot at defending it is to make them pay for trying to run the ball with an undersized, underskilled back.

#5 ifmanis5


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:49 PM

Hit. Kaepernick. Hard.

The option/pistol/whatever is gimmick bullshit that relies on your QB being faster and stronger and sexier than everyone else on the field. Kaepernick is going to run the ball and needs to be destroyed when he does. He's going to fake running the ball and needs to be destroyed when he does.

I'm normally not a big guy for hitting the QB, roughing the passer, whatever, but when the QB declares as a runner, your best shot at defending it is to make them pay for trying to run the ball with an undersized, underskilled back.

This x100. Spikes and Mayo are shining their hitting shoes as we speak.

#6 Corsi


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:02 PM

Aqib Talib "should" be ready to play against the Niners, according to a source. Alfonzo Dennard is going to be fine.

https://twitter.com/tomecurran/status/278559882129588226
link to tweet

#7 Corsi


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

This x100. Spikes and Mayo are shining their hitting shoes as we speak.




#8 Super Nomario


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

https://twitter.com/tomecurran/status/278559882129588226
link to tweet

We'll get more information when the injury report comes out tomorrow and both guys are listed as questionable.

#9 Ed Hillel


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:11 PM

We'll get more information when the injury report comes out tomorrow and both guys are listed as questionable.


13 guys were questionable against Houston. More or less this week?

I believe all of them but Brace played.

HA HA, time for Cheatriots!

Edited by Ed Hillel, 11 December 2012 - 01:12 PM.


#10 Super Nomario


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:17 PM

13 guys were questionable against Houston. More or less this week?

I believe all of them but Brace played.

HA HA, time for Cheatriots!

More. Dennard, Talib, Arrington, Bolden (who didn't have to be listed last week because he wasn't technically on the roster yet). Maybe he'll drop somebody (Hightower? Hernandez? Lloyd? Spikes?) this week. You know, just to keep it from being a complete farce.

With the short week and the pounding he took last night, we might see a "Brady - Limited, Right Shoulder" for Wednesday with him dropped from the report the rest of the week.

#11 Shelterdog


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:33 PM

This x100. Spikes and Mayo are shining their hitting shoes as we speak.


Now I can't recall--did they hurt Tebow in the regular season game or in the playoff game? I remember the play (Mark Anderson smashed Tebow after Tebow handed it off on some kind of zone read) but don't recall the game.

#12 pedroia'sboys

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:36 PM

From starting 3-3 and to being here now. Finish it, I dont know what else to say get that goddamn bye.

Edited by pedroia'sboys, 11 December 2012 - 01:36 PM.


#13 Jnai


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:48 PM

NE/SF line was 3.5 last night.

It's 6 now.

Incredibly, the HOU/IND line has not moved.

Edited by Jnai, 11 December 2012 - 01:49 PM.


#14 coremiller

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:48 PM

The Patriots should win this game.

At the risk of repeating a post in the Texans game-thread, I think the key to this game is Kaepernick. The last few weeks the Rams and then Dolphins slowed him down a bit.
If New England can keep him from breaking off a big run and get him to throw the football, they will likely get some chances for take-aways. Kaepernick likes to force throws because he's got a great arm and his athleticism leads him to try to keep plays alive when a more experienced QB might simply look to protect the ball.

On defense, RO, nails it. The 49ers pass rush is relentless (Aldon Smith is a force of nature), their LBs are beasts and their secondary is very good with Goldson, Whitner and Rodgers. That said, the Dolphins managed to move the ball at times with some mid-range passes to Bess and Hartline in spaces between the LBs and the secondary. With the Patriots receiving crew's versatility, its a fair bet that they will try to do the same.

Its safe to say that this will be the game of the year thus far.


As a 49er fan who attended the game against Miami on Sunday, you're overrating how well Miami threw the ball. Tannenhill finished 17/33 for 150 yards. He got one big play on Miami's first series for 28 yards on a blown coverage when the corner thought he had a safety behind him but didn't. After that, basically nothing. His longest completion in the second half was for 11 yards; in the second half he was 7/19 for 46 yards.

The real surprise was that Miami ran the ball reasonably well, averaging 4.3 yards/attempt. It helped though that the Niners played a lot of the game in a 2-4-5 nickel. I expect the Niners to play this package a lot against NE and a big key for the game will be whether NE can run the ball consistently enough to force SF to put a third lineman back on the field.

I can give you more of a scouting report on Kaepernick later.

#15 DeJesus Built My Hotrod


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:50 PM

I forgot to add to my earlier post but the one thing that would concern me about the 49ers is if Smith somehow starts.

There is no reason to expect him to play but if the Patriots game-plan all week for Kaepernick and Smith plays instead (or replaces him mid-game for some reason), then the 49ers offense is a completely different animal. Smith is sitting for a reason but the guy is very good at taking care of the football and making teams pay for being over-aggressive on defense.

Probably is irrelevant but worth thinking about.

#16 DeJesus Built My Hotrod


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:53 PM

As a 49er fan who attended the game against Miami on Sunday, you're overrating how well Miami threw the ball. Tannenhill finished 17/33 for 150 yards. He got one big play on Miami's first series for 28 yards on a blown coverage when the corner thought he had a safety behind him but didn't. After that, basically nothing. His longest completion in the second half was for 11 yards; in the second half he was 7/19 for 46 yards.

The real surprise was that Miami ran the ball reasonably well, averaging 4.3 yards/attempt. It helped though that the Niners played a lot of the game in a 2-4-5 nickel. I expect the Niners to play this package a lot against NE and a big key for the game will be whether NE can run the ball consistently enough to force SF to put a third lineman back on the field.

I can give you more of a scouting report on Kaepernick later.


To be clear, I never meant to suggest that Miami threw the ball well. Its just that they seemed to have the most success via the air by throwing those shorter routes. It seems like the Niners are fine giving those yards up because few teams can consistently move on them that way. That said, it will be fascinating to see how Brady, Welker, Hernandez, Lloyd et al do against the 49ers LBs and secondary.

#17 LesterFan

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:56 PM

@HarveyWCVB
Strong chance The Patriots/49ers game in Foxboro Sun. Nt. will be played in rain, mix or snow. Temps: 30s..raw NE winds

#18 Sille Skrub

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:57 PM

This will be my first time at the Blade all season. I've been looking forward to this one since the schedule came out last April.

Snow please!

#19 pedroia'sboys

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 02:02 PM

@HarveyWCVB
Strong chance The Patriots/49ers game in Foxboro Sun. Nt. will be played in rain, mix or snow. Temps: 30s..raw NE winds


O god based on timing track and other factors its basically impossible to predict the weather 7 days in advance. In silvers new book he calls any forecast over 4 days almost impossible. "Strong chance" my ass

#20 ObstructedView

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 03:26 PM

O god based on timing track and other factors its basically impossible to predict the weather 7 days in advance. In silvers new book he calls any forecast over 4 days almost impossible. "Strong chance" my ass

There's actually remarkably strong model agreement for this stage that there will be some type of system moving through around that time. Agree that it's a tad early to start hyping it though. One thing's for sure: it won't be 60 again.

#21 jsinger121


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 04:00 PM


Jeff Howe@jeffphowe

Good sign for Alfonzo Dennard. Source says he was in for treatment on hamstring and looked fine on his way out. No wrap or limp.



#22 There is no Rev


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:06 PM

We'll get more information when the injury report comes out tomorrow and both guys are listed as questionable.


I wonder if Belichick's critics realize how many of us enjoy and even revel in his trolling.

#23 Sportsbstn

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:08 PM

O god based on timing track and other factors its basically impossible to predict the weather 7 days in advance. In silvers new book he calls any forecast over 4 days almost impossible. "Strong chance" my ass


Yes "strong chance" and only 40% chance on any precipitation. Last night's game was supposed to be pouring rain earlier in the week. These guys dont know shit.

#24 RedOctober3829


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 11:16 PM

I think you will see the Patriots run the football a lot this week. The Giants were able to get 149 yards on the ground against these guys. If they are able to have success, then play action will come into play big-time.

#25 Mystic Merlin


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 11:19 PM

This is a Logan Mankins game.

#26 SoxScout


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 12:32 AM

Posted Image

playing in a snowstorm would be fun

#27 sachmoney


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 09:43 AM

Defensively, this is a DL game. Wilfork and Co can make the difference again. If Wilfork is busting into the backfield and blowing up Gore and James's inside runs, then it makes it easier for the ends to key in on Kaepernick, though I'm not sure how much read option the Niners running and if that one play got more attention than it deserved only because he scored that TD. Obviously, the DL is important to the pass defense as well.

While I don't expect 42 points, I do expect the offense to get theirs. Kick down the door:


#28 coremiller

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 10:39 AM

Defensively, this is a DL game. Wilfork and Co can make the difference again. If Wilfork is busting into the backfield and blowing up Gore and James's inside runs, then it makes it easier for the ends to key in on Kaepernick, though I'm not sure how much read option the Niners running and if that one play got more attention than it deserved only because he scored that TD. Obviously, the DL is important to the pass defense as well.

While I don't expect 42 points, I do expect the offense to get theirs. Kick down the door:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhhbAdU1aR4


The Niners run a lot of read-option. Too much for my taste. It's been boom or bust so far this season, they've gotten some big plays out of it but when it doesn't work it gets stuffed for no gain.

The Niners' OL vs. the Pats DL in the run game should be a really good matchup. SF has the best run-blocking line in the league. They are big (Goodwin, the center, is the smallest of the 5 and he's listed at 6'3"/318) and athletic and well-coached. Iupati in particular at LG is having a monster season run-blocking. The line is not nearly as good in pass protection. Anthony Davis, the RT, is vulnerable there.

#29 JCizzle

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 12:41 PM

Delanie Walker is trash. He was good two years ago, but forgot how to catch once Harbaugh came on board.

I'm most interested to see if SF can get anything going on the ground - that particular OL/DL matchup will be great.

#30 RedOctober3829


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 01:02 PM

Guns Hoculi has the game this week.

#31 JimBoSox9


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 01:27 PM

I wonder if Belichick's critics realize how many of us enjoy and even revel in his trolling.


Aren't you angry that he's making your job as a message board poster harder? Doesn't it make you upset when he gives you yet another meaningless platitude out of one side of his mouth, and licks the tears off your face with the other? WHY ARE YOU NOT OUTRAGED????

#32 Lack_of_Imagination

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 02:33 PM

O god based on timing track and other factors its basically impossible to predict the weather 7 days in advance. In silvers new book he calls any forecast over 4 days almost impossible. "Strong chance" my ass


Thats so not true! Its infallable, why the Monday afternoon OF THE GAME the forecast for that night was 90% rain, oh yeah and it didnt rain a drop during the game

#33 Al Zarilla


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 02:55 PM

Guns Hoculi has the game this week.

Senior or junior? Actually, the son does only college to this point I think. Senior seems a little "forgetful" or something lately.

I still fear Delanie Walker, who is I think still a really athletic and dangerous tight end. He just made a horrible drop at the goal line against the Rams.

#34 RedOctober3829


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 02:58 PM

Tickets are really scarce for this game. On the season ticket exchange at this time last week there were hundreds of tickets available. As of a minute ago, there were 7 tickets available for Sunday.

#35 Morgan's Magic Snowplow


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:11 PM

I think we're a better team but this will be a great game.

On offense, I think BB dusts off some of his gameplans for attacking the Steelers defense in the last decade, of which this 49er group reminds me quite a bit. Lots of 3WR 1TE sets, with Hernandez sometimes moving off the line. Make them spread out and play nickel and go after them in the run game if they only play 2 DL.

On defense, stopping the running game seems like the key. I see us largely staying in our base defense, letting our CBs compete on the outside in man-to-man while testing Kaepernick with some shifting coverages. Keeping contain on Kaepernick will be critical.

#36 dynomite

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:22 PM

People who have watched the 49ers (more than I have, which is essentially not at all):

My impression is that the absolute key to beating the 49ers -- over and above winning the turnover battle, even -- is to get a lead. The 49ers do pretty much everything well... except pass when the other team knows they're passing. Is that right?

Also, not sure if I've ever seen this before: according to FootballOutsiders's OL ranks, here are the 49ers and Pats:

49ers OL
Run Blocking: 1st
Pass Blocking: 32nd
(How is this even possible?)

Patriots OL
Run Blocking: 6th
Pass Blocking: 2nd

#37 jsinger121


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:35 PM


Jeff Howe@jeffphowe

Absent from walkthrough: Spikes, Love, Gronkowski.



#38 Al Zarilla


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:46 PM

People who have watched the 49ers (more than I have, which is essentially not at all):

My impression is that the absolute key to beating the 49ers -- over and above winning the turnover battle, even -- is to get a lead. The 49ers do pretty much everything well... except pass when the other team knows they're passing. Is that right?

Also, not sure if I've ever seen this before: according to FootballOutsiders's OL ranks, here are the 49ers and Pats:

49ers OL
Run Blocking: 1st
Pass Blocking: 32nd
(How is this even possible?)

49ers are fifth worst in the NFL in allowing sacks and first in rushing yards per attempt, second in yards rushing. Their O-line has obviously developed more as a run blocking for Frank Gore unit than one to protect Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick.

Brandon Jacobs is has been suspended for the rest of the season, if that hasn't been reported. Expect more of LaMichael James and Anthony Dixon along with Gore.

#39 jsinger121


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:46 PM


Mike Reiss@MikeReiss

Just back from Pats walkthru. Injured CBs Aqib Talib (hip), Alfonzo Dennard (hamstring) & Kyle Arrington ("friendly fire") all present.



#40 Jnai


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:47 PM

49ers OL
Run Blocking: 1st
Pass Blocking: 32nd
(How is this even possible?)


I was going to take a WAG and say that:
- a mobile QB is going to take more scramble-sacks
-an option offense is going to have more guys in the backfield hitting the QB than almost any other kind of offense.

But, actually, if you take Sacks and Divide by Attempts (to get a sack rate), tops in the league is Kevin Kolb (27 sacks in 183 attempts). Next? Alex Smith. 24 sacks in 217 attempts. Next? Our boy Kaepernick, 13 sacks in 129 attempts.

Regardless of who has been playing QB, the 49ers have just not been good at avoiding pressure.

The bottom 5 on that list, by the way:
Eli
Schaub
Peyton
Brady
Brees

#41 RedOctober3829


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:47 PM

Good sign that Talib and Dennard were present.

#42 coremiller

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 04:08 PM

People who have watched the 49ers (more than I have, which is essentially not at all):

My impression is that the absolute key to beating the 49ers -- over and above winning the turnover battle, even -- is to get a lead. The 49ers do pretty much everything well... except pass when the other team knows they're passing. Is that right?

Also, not sure if I've ever seen this before: according to FootballOutsiders's OL ranks, here are the 49ers and Pats:

49ers OL
Run Blocking: 1st
Pass Blocking: 32nd
(How is this even possible?)

Patriots OL
Run Blocking: 6th
Pass Blocking: 2nd


The Niners are certainly worse if they fall behind and have to pass every down, but that's true for just about every team. It's happened so rarely since Harbaugh showed up that the sample size is pretty small esp. with the QB change. Last season under Smith they had big comeback wins on the road against Philly and Detroit during the regular season and against New Orleans in the playoffs. This year I don't think they have any comeback wins, but that's mostly because they've been so good at getting out in front that they haven't needed to come back much.

They certainly looked pretty bad trying to come back against Minnesota and the Giants this year. But Kaepernick staged good comebacks in both Rams games against a good defense to get them into OT, even though they didn't win either game. And New Orleans got out to a first half lead but couldn't hold it. Certainly the conventional wisdom that "if they fall behind by 10, the game is over" is wrong. Esp. against the Pats' pass defense, even if it is improved since the beginning of the season.

#43 coremiller

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Posted 12 December 2012 - 04:14 PM

Also the Niners' pass blocking isn't quite as bad as that ranking indicates. The Niners QBs are coached to be conservative and take sacks rather than try to make low-percentage throws under pressure that could result in interceptions. The high sack rate thus partly reflects a strategic choice. Not that the pass blocking is particularly good -- it's not -- but I don't think it's the worst in the league, either.

#44 DeJesus Built My Hotrod


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:08 PM

49ers are fifth worst in the NFL in allowing sacks and first in rushing yards per attempt, second in yards rushing. Their O-line has obviously developed more as a run blocking for Frank Gore unit than one to protect Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick.

Brandon Jacobs is has been suspended for the rest of the season, if that hasn't been reported. Expect more of LaMichael James and Anthony Dixon along with Gore.


It will be interesting to see how the 49ers use James now that Harbaugh has freed him from the bench. With his speed and the fact that there isn't a lot of film/color on how SF might use him, he might be something of an X factor.

#45 TheoShmeo


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:10 PM

Murder them.

#46 Super Nomario


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:29 PM

Also the Niners' pass blocking isn't quite as bad as that ranking indicates. The Niners QBs are coached to be conservative and take sacks rather than try to make low-percentage throws under pressure that could result in interceptions. The high sack rate thus partly reflects a strategic choice. Not that the pass blocking is particularly good -- it's not -- but I don't think it's the worst in the league, either.

There was a good article on this early in the year: http://www.footballp...m-harbaugh-2-0/

#47 Al Zarilla


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:32 PM

It will be interesting to see how the 49ers use James now that Harbaugh has freed him from the bench. With his speed and the fact that there isn't a lot of film/color on how SF might use him, he might be something of an X factor.

Well, James is about it now for Gore's backup. Anthony Dixon seems to be used just in very short yardage (like just goal-line) situations. Brandon Jacobs bitched himself out of a job, again. I've seen some message board banter that one reason the 49ers kept James under wraps so long was because of his ability (or lack of) picking up blitzes. I'm sure BB is all over this.

#48 SoxFanInCali


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 05:42 PM

But Kaepernick staged good comebacks in both Rams games against a good defense to get them into OT, even though they didn't win either game.

The Rams only had the lead in the 2nd matchup when the winning FG in OT went through the uprights. The only points the Rams scored until kicking a FG to tie it on the last play of regulation were Kaepernick's fault (a safety and a defensive TD off a bad pitch).

Kaepernick did have the great run late to set up the FG that gave the Niners the lead, but a couple of plays later he ran out of bounds, saving the Rams a timeout and giving them time to tie it.

#49 Al Zarilla


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 06:03 PM

Mario Manningham missed practice today. If he's out, another raw rookie, A.J. Jenkins probably suits up for just the second time this year.

Manningham Sunday?

#50 BigSoxFan


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Posted 12 December 2012 - 07:05 PM

Mario Manningham missed practice today. If he's out, another raw rookie, A.J. Jenkins probably suits up for just the second time this year.

Manningham Sunday?


NBC will make sure he plays so that they can reference his sideline catch in the SB every time he makes a play.




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