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Who wins MVP this year?


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#51 coremiller

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 06:12 PM

But the award isn't supposed to go to the guy who is the best relative to other players at his position (and, if it did, it would go to JJ Watt). Its supposed to go to the guy who is the most valuable player.


Why can't that be one way (among many) to think about value? FWIW, I think there's a strong case to be made that Watt should win as well. I'd probably vote AP and Watt 1/2 right now ahead of all the QBs.

I just don't buy into the idea that QBs are so much more inherently valuable than other positions that a QB should always win the award.

#52 Morgan's Magic Snowplow


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Posted 10 December 2012 - 06:24 PM

Why can't that be one way (among many) to think about value? FWIW, I think there's a strong case to be made that Watt should win as well. I'd probably vote AP and Watt 1/2 right now ahead of all the QBs.

I just don't buy into the idea that QBs are so much more inherently valuable than other positions that a QB should always win the award.


The quarterback simply has much more impact on the outcome of games than any other position in football. Adrian Peterson has handled the ball like 300 times this year. And when a RB handles the ball, the outcome of that play is very rarely either a turnover or a truly long gain (although AP is obviously better at the latter than most RBs). Tom Brady has handled the ball like 500 times this year (not counting handoffs) and when a QB handles the ball, the outcome of that play is much more frequently a turnover or a long gain.

Good play from the QB position has more value than even elite play from the RB position because there are more plays and more at stake in the average play.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 10 December 2012 - 06:24 PM.


#53 MarcSullivaFan

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 06:42 PM

Good play from the QB position has more value than even elite play from the RB position because there are more plays and more at stake in the average play.


This is undoubtedly correct, even as to AP, but the voters don't care. And, to be fair, the guy is essentially a one man offense right now. If the Vikings make the playoffs with no Harvin and Ponder sucking at QB, Peterson has a realistic shot of winning--especially if he breaks 2000 yards.

#54 Morgan's Magic Snowplow


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Posted 10 December 2012 - 06:58 PM

This is undoubtedly correct, even as to AP, but the voters don't care. And, to be fair, the guy is essentially a one man offense right now. If the Vikings make the playoffs with no Harvin and Ponder sucking at QB, Peterson has a realistic shot of winning--especially if he breaks 2000 yards.


Mainly I'm arguing that he shouldn't win. But I agree that he could win under these circumstances, especially if he breaks the rushing record and makes the playoffs. We don't usually think about the de facto playoff criterion in the NFL (at least not as much as in baseball), simply because the best-performing QBs nearly always make the playoffs. But for RBs its clearly huge. I had completely forgotten about this before going back to look, but Chris Johnson received exactly zero votes for MVP in 2009 despite breaking the NFL record for yards from scrimmage and scoring 16 TDs.

Edited by Morgan's Magic Snowplow, 10 December 2012 - 06:59 PM.


#55 coremiller

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 07:04 PM

The quarterback simply has much more impact on the outcome of games than any other position in football. Adrian Peterson has handled the ball like 300 times this year. And when a RB handles the ball, the outcome of that play is very rarely either a turnover or a truly long gain (although AP is obviously better at the latter than most RBs). Tom Brady has handled the ball like 500 times this year (not counting handoffs) and when a QB handles the ball, the outcome of that play is much more frequently a turnover or a long gain.

Good play from the QB position has more value than even elite play from the RB position because there are more plays and more at stake in the average play.


This is all true but not very helpful, as it goes to total value and not marginal value. Comparing to peers is one (crude and not very good) way to look at marginal value.

#56 SouthernBoSox

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 07:05 PM

Did you see the way he got handled last night? He didn't even have one of the two eye-popping catches in the game. A no-name CB basically took him 1-on-1 and shut him down.

He may or may not be the best WR in the NFL right now, but what I've seen of him hasn't made me think "jesus christ, what an unbelievable talent".

I stopped reading after this, because I have to respond. If people have already informed you of the utter ridiculous opinion you have of Calvin Johnson then I apologize for piling on.

In reference to Calvin Johnson you are of the opinion he doesn't seem like a "unbelieveable talent". What. The. Fuck. The dude has a very very very legitimate chance to have the greatest yardage year by a WR EVER. In the history of fucking football. He is doing that with shit on the opposite side most of the year and a very average running threat. He is doubled team, tripled teamed, 11 teamed and he still keeps fucking people up. What Calvin Johnson does is insane. He is the most physically dominant player in football sans AP. And it's close. AP is to RB what Megatron is to WR. They are the most "Jesus Christ, what unbelievable talent" players in the NFL. It's those two and then everyone else. They can't be schemed out. They're just better.

I think AP should be the MVP. But Calvin Johnson should be way way up there.

#57 abty

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 07:20 PM

Great post. Agreed. Megatron is insane and adrian IS the vikings. Teams die instantly without them. Would be megastars in ny, new england or any great team for that matter.

#58 MentalDisabldLst


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Posted 10 December 2012 - 07:58 PM

In reference to Calvin Johnson you are of the opinion he doesn't seem like a "unbelieveable talent". What. The. Fuck. <etc>


This'll be my last post on the subject, but I just wanted to emphasize that I'm speaking only of the games of Johnson's that I've seen this year. I have a tremendous amount of respect for his physical talents, and in the Detroit games I've seen in previous years, I've been much more impressed with him. If this were a Calvin Johnson thread, I'd probably go poke around to see about drop rates and target frequency and other things to figure out if that idea (that he's been better in past years) is total bullshit or not.

I agree with those who prefer AP's season to date, as an MVP candidate. That guy makes my eyes bug out. I hope he takes Dickerson's record, because he deserves it.

#59 SouthernBoSox

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 08:09 PM

This'll be my last post on the subject, but I just wanted to emphasize that I'm speaking only of the games of Johnson's that I've seen this year. I have a tremendous amount of respect for his physical talents, and in the Detroit games I've seen in previous years, I've been much more impressed with him. If this were a Calvin Johnson thread, I'd probably go poke around to see about drop rates and target frequency and other things to figure out if that idea (that he's been better in past years) is total bullshit or not.

I agree with those who prefer AP's season to date, as an MVP candidate. That guy makes my eyes bug out. I hope he takes Dickerson's record, because he deserves it.

Adrian Peterson makes me believe in aliens.

#60 Turrable

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:39 PM

It's Brady.

#61 ZP1

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:40 PM

Brady could play out of his mind and get 5 TDs per game in each of the remaining games and still not get MVP. Manning's comeback story + his performance is a combination that's unbeatable.

#62 bigsid05

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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:47 PM

If Tom plays out of his mind against SF he has a shot but Manning still has it right now thanks to the storyline.

#63 DaveRoberts'Shoes


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Posted 10 December 2012 - 11:59 PM

It's Brady.


Um yes

#64 Ed Hillel


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:00 AM

Still Manning at this point. Not my opinion, what I think will happen.

#65 abty

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:30 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.

#66 Van Everyman

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:35 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.

Reche Caldwell says hi.

#67 BigSoxFan


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:36 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.


1) the 2008 schedule was incredibly easy

2) the Broncos made the Divisional Round last year without Peyton

3) You suck

#68 Papelbon's Poutine

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:54 AM

Brady's and Manning's numbers are actually pretty close.

3537 yards for Brady, 3812 for Manning.

65% completion percentage to 68%.

25 TD/4 Int to 30/10. Each has 2 fumbles. If the Pats win out, i think Brady should deserve it.


Could be wrong but pretty sure those numbers reflect 13 games for Manning and only 12 for Brady. So after tonight, yardage even, completion % the same and TDs now 29 vs 30. Manning has the narrative but if things stay like that I'd think the lower interceptions outweigh 3 points in completion percentage if you're going strictly by stats.

#69 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:07 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.

TIL Tom Brady has never won a big game on the road.

Oh, and they made the 2006 AFC Championship game with these receivers:
Ben Watson, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham. Not to mention Heath Evans getting four catches in that game. That team went 12-4 that year.

He's done it with horribly inferior talent. He's done it with elite talent.

I'm not sure he's the MVP but I know sure as shit that what you're saying is absolutely ridiculous and shows a complete and utter lack of understanding of the career of Tom Brady. You're glazing, dude.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 11 December 2012 - 01:16 AM.


#70 lars10

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:16 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.

You're right...Eli Manning is not an elite QB. I kid.

Edit. and Not sure if Serious. Brady's receivers in 2001 in the superbowl were Troy Brown, Terry Glenn and David Patten..no real TE to think of and Faulk, Redmond as their RBs... I mean really??? He's had no talent around him most of his career and when he has had talent he's been a GOAT!

Peyton Manning even this year has had a great RB (now hurt with a decent backup) two elite WRs with a very solid TE...let alone all of the offensive talent he had while on the Colts...

Edited by lars10, 11 December 2012 - 01:25 AM.


#71 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:16 AM

1) the 2008 schedule was incredibly easy

2) the Broncos made the Divisional Round last year without Peyton

3) You suck

IIRC that 2008 schedule was literally the easiest SOS entering the season in NFL history. Or it was close.

#72 BannedbyNYYFans.com

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:20 AM

He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.


The Colts won 10 games with Manning in 2010 and 2 in 2011 without him. A difference of 8 wins. The Partriots won 18 games in 2007 with Brady and 11 in 2008 without him. A difference of 7 wins.

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 11 December 2012 - 01:22 AM.


#73 Zomp


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:21 AM

Hey guys, I know everyone is on cloud 9 right now after a huge win, but lets try to keep the discussion on point? abty (who may be drunk with his typos) does have a decent enough point, even if he (she?) presented it in a way that riles some of you up.



To me, it could go to Peterson, Manning, or Brady and there could be no complaints from anyone. All 3 are having great years and are very worthy.

#74 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:28 AM

I agree with you, Zomp. I think it's one of those three. Heck, if Peterson somehow gets to 2000 yards on the ground AND gets his team into the playoffs, I'd be more than happy to hand him the MVP. I don't think he gets it if they don't make the playoffs, but OPoY is a reasonable award to hand him.

It's going to come down to Brady and Manning. If the Pats win out and get the bye, I think Brady takes it. If they go 2-1 and Denver wins out, Manning takes it. Also should be mentioned that right now the Pats are 10-3, but their 3 losses have been by 4 total points. Denver's lost 3 games, but they were by a total of 22.

#75 Zomp


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:36 AM

Sometimes I wish there was a "Best Player" award in addition to the MVP, because if there was I think Brady would take the first one and Manning the second. I think the Pats are a better team than the Broncos, and Brady has better weapons than Manning, but Manning will have improved his teams record by 4 or 5 games before the season is over (thats obviously not a point against Brady, as he has nothing to do with it) and because of the comeback and the incredible stats, I'd be surprised if Manning doesn't get it. That said, if Brady lights it up down the stretch, especially next week, you are right in that its his to lose.

What a fun season. So many good story lines.

#76 BigSoxFan


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:36 AM

The Broncos have the 5th best scoring defense in the league, 2 very good WRs in Thomas/Decker, and a solid running game. This narrative that Manning does more with less is just flat out wrong. But I agree it's very close between all 3.

#77 rodderick

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 06:25 AM

Let brady play a big tram on the road and win or play with a new team with less weapons and win 11 games and he can have it. Be objective. He git hurt in 2008 and they went 11-5. Vikings without adrian ir broncos without Peyton suffer more. Otherwise one should argue those are better and deeper teams. Brady is god like but so is his teams talent. This is not the best wb award, it is the "we die if you get hurt" award. Or at least it should be.


Oh jesus, not this inane, poorly thought of, "they won with Matt Cassel" argument again... The Patriots had the best team in the league and the weakest schedule in football in 2008. Had Brady been there, they win AT THE VERY LEAST 14 games, and had a real chance of going undefeated. If you remember, the Patriots' 5 losses came against every team that had a chance of beating them (Steelers, Chargers, Colts, Dolphins, Jets). So what happened? They missed the playoffs altogether with pretty much the same squad that was a play away from being 19-0 the year before. Hey, but I guess the dropoff from "arguably greatest team in the history of football" to "7th best team in the AFC" isn't signifcant.

And sure, the Broncos would just whither and die without Peyton Manning, just like they did last season when Tim Tebow, who's about the 40th best quarterback in the NFL, led them to the playoffs and won a postseason game in Pittsburgh. Even the Colts are likely to end up with a better record now than they did in Peyton's last season there, now that they are actually trying to win football games, and they have a rookie quarterback.

If you're goind to bring up the "11-5 with Cassel" argument, be sure to remember "7-4 and a playoff win with Tim Tebow" or "9-4 with a rookie QB".

And talking about the Patriots talent. Yeah, that Denver defense is nothing special. Neither is their O-Line. And having two 6'4, 4.40 receivers on the outside isn't really helpful either. Give me a break, Peyton Manning lost to pretty much every good team he faced this season. The Broncos' best win is the Steelers in the first game of the season. He has absolutely feasted on bad competition. Brady has beaten the Broncos, the Texans and the Colts, who have 3 of the 5 best records in the AFC. He also would've beaten Baltimore if it weren't for some absolutely ridiculous officiating. Houston, New England and Denver are the three teams atop most power rankings, Brady beat two of them. Manning lost both times.

I think you can make a solid case for Manning or Peterson to win MVP, without resorting to just spouting "oh, but they won 11 games without Brady", without even considering all the factors that went into that.

Edited by rodderick, 11 December 2012 - 06:37 AM.


#78 Hendu for Kutch

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:36 AM

Ya, using the Cassel argument shows that you actually have no argument. Not only did they go 16-0 in 2007, but they outscored their opponents by 315 points that season (highest in NFL history), or about 20 points per game. And their schedule was brutal that season outside their division. They beat two 13 win teams, an 11 win team, three 10 win teams, and a 9 win team. That's 7-0 against teams over .500 and 2-0 against the other truly elite teams.

In 2008, they went 11-5 and outscored their opponents by 101 points. Their only wins over teams over .500 were a split with the 11 win Dolphins, a split with the 9 win Jets, and a win over the 9 win Cardinals. They went 3-4 against teams over .500 and played no games against truly elite teams.

So the dropoff was not just 5 wins, it was 5 wins and 200 points of differential while also playing a schedule that was a metric fuckton easier.

#79 TheoShmeo


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:40 AM

Abty's point is terrible, regardless of how it was presented. What happened in 2008 or any other year has no bearing on whether Tom should be the MVP this season. It literally proves nothing. Different years, different teams, different competition and different performances.

That said, in my view it's pretty much of a coin flip between Brady and Manning. Both are absolutely pivotal to their team's success and both are turning in redunkulous years. Anyone who thinks that the Pats or Broncos would be performing anywhere near where they are now without their starting QB needs to have his head examined.

And yes, it's very tough for me to imagine the voters passing on the Manning story. People rightfully expected Brady to have another dominating year. Manning was anyone's guess coming out of the exhibition season and indeed his passes seemed kind of wobbly early on. That he's lead the Broncos to eight straight and played as well as he has is pretty remarkable, even while I fervently hope that he meets an unthinkable fate every single time he takes a snap.

#80 NortheasternPJ

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:40 AM

Why is it even relevant? That was 4 years ago. A large portion of the team has turned over since then. Hell Brady is the only one with multiple rings at this point.

#81 epraz


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:52 AM

When you hit Brady hard and early, he gets rattled and his performance deteriorates.

#82 rodderick

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:03 AM

Abty's point is terrible, regardless of how it was presented. What happened in 2008 or any other year has no bearing on whether Tom should be the MVP this season. It literally proves nothing. Different years, different teams, different competition and different performances.

That said, in my view it's pretty much of a coin flip between Brady and Manning. Both are absolutely pivotal to their team's success and both are turning in redunkulous years. Anyone who thinks that the Pats or Broncos would be performing anywhere near where they are now without their starting QB needs to have his head examined.

And yes, it's very tough for me to imagine the voters passing on the Manning story. People rightfully expected Brady to have another dominating year. Manning was anyone's guess coming out of the exhibition season and indeed his passes seemed kind of wobbly early on. That he's lead the Broncos to eight straight and played as well as he has is pretty remarkable, even while I fervently hope that he meets an unthinkable fate every single time he takes a snap.


The eight straight wins the Broncos have had came against the Chargers, Saints, Bengals, Panthers, Chiefs, Bucs and Raiders. That's a 37-67 combined record, or a .350 win percentage. The Patriots 7 game winning streak came against the Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Rams, Colts and Texans. Teams with a combined 48-42-1 record, for a .530 win percentage. That should be taken into account too, when talking about the turnaround Manning has willed the Broncos in to. The Patriots have had a much more impressive run, while Denver has recovered against the softest schedule in the league, after having a 2-3 record against the Falcons, Texans, Patriots, Steelers and Raiders. The Broncos M.O so far has been to win the games they're supposed to win, and lose the games in which there's no clear favorite.

#83 rodderick

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:04 AM

When you hit Brady hard and early, he gets rattled and his performance deteriorates.


Substitute "Brady" with "a quarterback" and your sentence makes even more sense.

#84 lexrageorge

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:17 AM

When you hit Brady hard and early, he gets rattled and his performance deteriorates.


A more accurate statement is that if you hit Brady hard and early with 4-man rushes and disguised blitzes, and sustain that over the course of the game, then his performance deteriorates and he gets rattled.

However, a QB that doesn't get rattled in that situation has yet to play a down in the NFL.

As to the MVP, I really don't care that much. Brady's already won 2, and neither resulted in a Lombardi. I'd rather the Super Bowl Trophy, and so probably would Brady. And I can't wait to hear the anti-Brady trolling during his first year of Hall-of-Fame eligibility.

Edited by lexrageorge, 11 December 2012 - 08:20 AM.


#85 TheoShmeo


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:45 AM

As to the MVP, I really don't care that much. Brady's already won 2, and neither resulted in a Lombardi. I'd rather the Super Bowl Trophy, and so probably would Brady. And I can't wait to hear the anti-Brady trolling during his first year of Hall-of-Fame eligibility.

It's an interesting discussion but I agree, it means almost nothing to me. Individual awards are cold comfort if and when the Pats lose a game in January or February. And it's not as if Tom's HOF status or place in the game will be impacted substantially by whether he wins an MVP this year.

I disagree on one thing. I don't think there's anything "probable" about what Tom would prefer: the Lombardi. Unless he is a particularly awesome phony, winning it all is by far the most important thing to him. Even from an individual perspective, a 4th title would mean much more to his legacy than another MVP. Especially after the gap since number three and the intervening SpyGate bullshit.

#86 rodderick

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:48 AM

It's an interesting discussion but I agree, it means almost nothing to me. Individual awards are cold comfort if and when the Pats lose a game in January or February. And it's not as if Tom's HOF status or place in the game will be impacted substantially by whether he wins an MVP this year.

I disagree on one thing. I don't think there's anything "probable" about what Tom would prefer: the Lombardi. Unless he is a particularly awesome phony, winning it all is by far the most important thing to him. Even from an individual perspective, a 4th title would mean much more to his legacy than another MVP. Especially after the gap since number three and the intervening SpyGate bullshit.


Obviously anybody would rather get another Superbowl than an MVP. I just don't see why so many people treat this as an either-or proposition. If Brady wins the MVP, that doesn't impact the Patriots' chances of winning another Lombardi. It's just that after so many years of "he's a product of the system", it'd be nice for him to get a third award. He surely deserves it.

#87 williams_482

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:08 AM

Substitute "Brady" with "a quarterback" and your sentence makes even more sense.


Given what happened last night, I am pretty sure that was sarcasm.

#88 loshjott

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:13 AM

A more accurate statement is that if you hit Brady hard and early with 4-man rushes and disguised blitzes, and sustain that over the course of the game, then his performance deteriorates and he gets rattled.

However, a QB that doesn't get rattled in that situation has yet to play a down in the NFL.

As to the MVP, I really don't care that much. Brady's already won 2, and neither resulted in a Lombardi. I'd rather the Super Bowl Trophy, and so probably would Brady. And I can't wait to hear the anti-Brady trolling during his first year of Hall-of-Fame eligibility.



Probably?

#89 coremiller

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:48 AM

A more accurate statement is that if you hit Brady hard and early with 4-man rushes and disguised blitzes, and sustain that over the course of the game, then his performance deteriorates and he gets rattled.

However, a QB that doesn't get rattled in that situation has yet to play a down in the NFL.

As to the MVP, I really don't care that much. Brady's already won 2, and neither resulted in a Lombardi. I'd rather the Super Bowl Trophy, and so probably would Brady. And I can't wait to hear the anti-Brady trolling during his first year of Hall-of-Fame eligibility.


Huh? I realize this is a Patriots board, but the persecution complex is really unnecessary. The "anti-Brady trolling" in this discussion is merely disputing whether he's obviously the most valuable player in the league, arguing that he doesn't really stand out from the other top candidates. Nobody doubts that he'll waltz into the Hall of Fame and deservedly so.

#90 tims4wins


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 09:58 AM

I think we can safely remove JJ Watt from the discussion, after his 0 sack, 0 tackle, 0 deflected pass, 42 points given up performance.

#91 Stitch01

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:00 AM

Meh, the Pats did a good job on him but he still was disruptive in the pass rush, forced a fumble, and graded well on Pro Football Focus. Not his best effort, but he wasn't a no show by any means.

#92 Bucknahs Bum Ankle


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:01 AM

Could be wrong but pretty sure those numbers reflect 13 games for Manning and only 12 for Brady. So after tonight, yardage even, completion % the same and TDs now 29 vs 30. Manning has the narrative but if things stay like that I'd think the lower interceptions outweigh 3 points in completion percentage if you're going strictly by stats.


This is correct. Stats comparison as of this morning:

Brady: 3833 YDS, 64.4%, 7.74 Y/A, 29 TD, 4 INT, 104.2 QBR
Manning: 3812 YDS, 68.3%, 7.89 Y/A, 30 TD, 10 INT, 104.0 QBR

It's neck and neck (no pun intended Peyton) and to me Brady has the edge based on his ridiculously low number of interceptions for the amount of times he's put the ball in the air. Obviously it's going to depend on the next three games, but right now it's Brady's to lose IMO.

Looking ahead, Manning's got a tough road game against BAL and then what should be two easy home games vs. CLE and KC. Brady's got SF at home, JAX on the road, and MIA at home. So they both face very good defenses next week in potentially cold weather, but Brady is at home and Manning is on the road and Brady is normally better than Manning in the cold. However, SF is probably a better pass defense at this point than BAL. After that it probably comes down to how well Manning can perform in the cold at home vs easy opponents, as we can expect Brady will be able to put up big numbers at JAX and be at least decent at home vs. MIA.

Edited by Bucknahs Bum Ankle, 11 December 2012 - 10:20 AM.


#93 drleather2001


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:11 AM

Anything close to a tie and it goes to Peyton.

Brady needs to have a clear lead in not just INTs, but some other glam stat as well, be it TDs or total yards. Plus, he needs to earn a bye.

If I were placing odds, I'd say it's 3/2 in favor of Peyton right now, unfortunately.

The only thing that I'd be concerned about, were I rooting for Peyton, is that he plays the last two games of the season in late December at Denver. The weather *should* be cold and/or shitty.

#94 lostjumper

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:12 AM

Last night on the post game Dilfer and Steve Young both said its Brady's to lose, and they should have been talking about him more. I think Brady putting on a show on MNF when every is focused on that game is a big deal. If he can beat the 49er's and play well next week it should be his.

#95 tims4wins


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:13 AM

Anything close to a tie and it goes to Peyton.

Brady needs to have a clear lead in not just INTs, but some other glam stat as well, be it TDs or total yards. Plus, he needs to earn a bye.

If I were placing odds, I'd say it's 3/2 in favor of Peyton right now, unfortunately.

The only thing that I'd be concerned about, were I rooting for Peyton, is that he plays the last two games of the season in late December at Denver. The weather *should* be cold and/or shitty.


Do you know anything about Denver weather? 6 days out of 7 here are sunny. Remember when the Pats played them in December last year, and it was 60 and sunny? That isn't abnormal.

#96 slamminsammya

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:18 AM

What about the possibility that it gets split between the two of them a la when McNair and Manning shared the MVP in the way back?

#97 drleather2001


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 10:21 AM

Well, shit.

On a related note: Every writer notes, in saying that Peyton should win the MVP, or will win the MVP, that he's recovering from neck surgery, and what a surprise his return to being excellent again is. We all know this, it's not news.

But what irritates me to no end is that nobody steps up and asks: why does that matter? There's an award called Comeback Player of the Year that exists solely to award exactly that type of achievement.

It's a bullshit argument that, like star-treatment in the NBA, is just openly accepted.

If Peyton wins, let him win based on his actual performance, not based on some subjective Good Will Points. Fuck that.

Edited by drleather2001, 11 December 2012 - 10:22 AM.


#98 BannedbyNYYFans.com

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 12:50 PM

This is correct. Stats comparison as of this morning:

Brady: 3833 YDS, 64.4%, 7.74 Y/A, 29 TD, 4 INT, 104.2 QBR
Manning: 3812 YDS, 68.3%, 7.89 Y/A, 30 TD, 10 INT, 104.0 QBR


Brady also has 4 Rushing TDs compared to Manning's 0. And Manning has 2 Fumbles Lost compared to Brady's 0.

So Brady has accounted for 33 TDs and 4 Turnovers
and Manning has accounted for 29 TDs and 12 Turnovers

#99 rodderick

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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:22 PM

Well, shit.

On a related note: Every writer notes, in saying that Peyton should win the MVP, or will win the MVP, that he's recovering from neck surgery, and what a surprise his return to being excellent again is. We all know this, it's not news.

But what irritates me to no end is that nobody steps up and asks: why does that matter? There's an award called Comeback Player of the Year that exists solely to award exactly that type of achievement.

It's a bullshit argument that, like star-treatment in the NBA, is just openly accepted.

If Peyton wins, let him win based on his actual performance, not based on some subjective Good Will Points. Fuck that.


Exactly. This coupled with the fact that NOBODY is going "wait a minute, didn't Tebow lead this team to the playoffs last year?" is irritating me to no end. Yes, Manning's recovery is a great story, and I think not even he could anticipate coming back and playing at this level, but this should be completely irrelevant in judging who is the MVP. And if coming back from injuries should play a part in it, I wonder why Chad Pennington didn't win the award in '08, when he actually was better than Manning in several statistical categories. This is what pisses me off. When another QB outperforms Manning statistically, but his team has a better record, he should get the MVP because he had more success. When the other QB wins more games, but Manning has better numbers, Peyton should win the MVP because he played with a worse team and had to do more to win. I mean, aside from 2004, can you really say Manning was hands down the NFL's most valuable player, or even the most valuable QB, for that matter, in the 3 other seasons he won the award?

#100 Kenny F'ing Powers


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Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:58 PM

Thanks to the AIDs auction (seriously, thank you AIDs), I was able to get 2 tickets to the game last night.

They were in the 300's, and the bird's-eye view gave me one of the best seats in the house to really watch and breakdown the game (the kids behind be equated it to "watching a game of Madden").

I walked out of the game last night with one predominant thought.

Tom Brady is really fucking good at his job.

Having an overhead view gave me the ability to see the holes in the defense (based on offensive formation) before the ball was snapped. Houston didn't really try to confuse Brady, and he absolutely ate them up because of it. Nearly every single throw he made was in the soft spot of the defense. Playing a straight man/nickle defense against 3 wide? He chews up the soft middle of the field. Man straight up over the tight end? Here comes the flat dump. Lloyd lining up 2-3 yards tighter to the line (corner not angling off sideline)? Here comes the out route.

Brady looked over the defense and saw the soft spot almost every single time. Obviously, credit has to go to his receivers for making the right reads as well. But, I watched a QB last night that was just locked in. Brady's attention to detail is ridiculous. He knew where the soft spots were and he'd wait patiently in the pocket, pretending to survey the field so he wasn't staring down his receiver, until his man got there. He was getting pushed around, bodies were flying at his feet, and he never got rattled.

I've always thought Brady was good at what he did, but (thanks to AIDs and RGreeley) I got a whole new appreciation for his skill last night. It was some of the best play out of a quarterback I ever got to witness. Even if he doesn't win the MVP this year, I do believe he's the best QB in the league. I mean, how could you play any better?

Edited by Kenny F'ing Powers, 11 December 2012 - 01:59 PM.





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